Big Kansas Flood and Not So Big Bertha July 13, 2008

The big storm chances eroded late Saturday night for the area. Rain will be in the area until midday on Sunday with the southern and southeastern parts of the viewing area still in the rain chances for Sunday afternoon.

On This Date In History: Just when you thought that the flooding in the Midwest was a result of Global Warming comes a this date in to make those wish to do so to think.  On This Date in 1951, rivers in Eastern Kansas crested at what was their highest levels to that time.  From June through this date in July, 25 inches of rain fell across the region with some 6 inches between July 9 and July 13.  Two million acres of farmland was flooded as rivers crested between 4 and 9 feet above flood stage.  Manhattan, Topeka and Lawrence were greatly affected.  The photo above is from Topeka.  On the Kansas river refinery storage tanks caught fire and exploded and travelers on trains were stuck on board for as many as four days.  The flooding resulted in the development of reservoirs and levees which were credited with lessening the affects of the next record flood in 1993. 

Flooding in the Midwest is not new.  In fact, I would submit that development along the rivers have more to do with any increased flooding than climate change.  All across the nation, less rain in more time have been known to cause greater flooding than previous events due to development that simply wasn’t there during previous events.

Here is a photo gallery from the 1951 flood in Kansas City, Topeka, Manhattan and Lawrence.

Bertha Update:  Bertha has slowed to a crawl and will probably be in the picture for the next several days as it runs into a building ridge to the north.  I’ve still seen models that want to take it farther northwest after passing Bermuda to the east than the NHC, but the NHC is still going with the coriolis force overcoming the ridge faster than the one model and having it meander to the northeast and then east.  One that I saw actually had it going farther northwest and then strengthen over the Gulfstream before fading again as it moved east and northeast. Either way, its still of maritime interests and will never reach major status again and probably wont ever become a hurricane again as it slowly loses tropical characteristics.  Surf will be up in Bermuda though for the next few days and maybe even some decent waves in New England.  Here is a satellite photo, which is still kinda impressive looking, the official track and some tracks from two models.

Bertha Lives On! Storm Threat Saturday July 12, 2008

Here is the Friday afternoon version of the severe threat from the SPC for the weekend. Notice how the first one for Saturday into Sunday morning ends just barely to our west.  Notice how the second one for Sunday morning to Monday morning starts just to our east.  The idea here is that the action gets to us late at night and the simmer down before getting going again during daytime heating as the front progresses east on Sunday.  As I’ve said for several posts now, this is very similar to last Tuesday.  The front will be approaching, it will be hot and humidity should increase somewhat.  We may pop some heat induced t’storms in the afternoon should the lapse rates allow.  Storms along the front may indeed hold together into the late evening, like last Tuesday, and make things interesting.  That is what we will watch for.  Saturday morning through early afternoon activities will be fine and the later you go in the afternoon, the better the chance for an isolated t’storm to pop up. 

Make sure you have plenty of water and take breaks. Snow White and I sculled up the Ohio River on Friday and I had plenty of sunscreen…just didn’t have enough water before I left and none in the scull.  I didn’t make it to 12 mile island and Snow White was ahead of me for much of the way back down stream.  I was a noodle when we were done.  Not smart. Don’t be dopey like me.

 

Hurricane Bertha Lives!!

The top photo is an image you won’t see much. It’s an infared image for use in the Dvorak method of analysing the intensity of a tropical cyclone and is depended on when a storm is too far away for using aircraft to collect observational data.  The second is a standard satellite view of the Atlantic.  Bertha seems to have a pretty big eye but, while I haven’t watched it that closely, it would appear to me that dry air may have gotten into the storm for a time which may be the reason for the big eye.  This is not a storm that will be getting stronger any time soon and that is the forecast. It’s going to get over colder water and, from the 3rd graphic of the forecast track map, you can tell it will miss Bermuda and then kinda slow down.  It’s going to get caught up beneath some ridging to the north. That will try to steer it to the west but the coriolis force that far north is strong and it will want to take it east.   The fourth graphic is a depiction of what 3 computer models think.  Notice one has it loop around to the east of Bermuda.  While the official track takes this northeast, don’t be surprised if it meanders for a while.  Surf should be up in Bermuda for several days.

If you want to learn more about the Dvorak technique, here is a link that has further links some of which are attributed to Dr. Jack Beven.  He was finishing his Doctoral work at Florida State University while I was there.  He is a very smart guy and his work is no doubt advancing the field of Tropical Meteorology

Dvorak Guide

Impeach the Vice President!! Hurricane Bertha Set To Waffle July 11, 2008

Our weather remains on track. Friday will be fine…a little hotter and a little more humid. Then Saturday a front approaches and the day has the potential to be very similar to Tuesday with hot and humid conditions with perhaps something going on late in the day and the night. For details see the previous post or wait until later on Friday for an update.

Hurricane Bertha: The storm has gone through an eyewall replacement cycle which typically disperses the energy and the winds decreased. Eyewall replacement cycles are associated with pretty healthy tropical cyclones and the satellite imagery looks pretty good. It is not out of the question for this guy to kick it up a notch or two as it still has a little real-estate left with some decent water temperatures. However, as it gets up to even with Bermuda, it will get over cooler water and from that point it should start to lose some steam. The official forecast doesn’t have it moving so quickly to the northeast but is also not taking it farther to the northwest into the Canadian Maritimes as some models previously suggested. The forecast takes it to the east of Bermuda, though something a little closer to the island may pan out if a couple of the models are correct.

Either way, the island will get gusty winds and good waves with some passing squalls. After that, the NHC is calling for ridge to build to the north of the storm which would block its movement north or northeast. They are suggesting that it will kinda meander about. But, I’ve still seen modeling data that still wants to take it closer to the main coast than the current NHC forecast. Given that they are talking about a ridge to the north, I’m uncertain why they are pooh-poohing the suggestion that it would go northwest…except…the coriolis force is pretty tough that far north and so I’m suspecting that the thinking is that the ridge will not be sufficient to go against that force, but simply enough to keep it in a sorta no mans land for a while.

On This Date In History: In recent years, we have heard the “I” word tossed about rather liberally. That word is impeach.

President Andrew Johnson was impeached but was not convicted by one vote. President Clinton was impeached but also avoided removal from office as the Senate did not vote for conviction. Today, we hear from those who want to impeach the current president or Vice-President Dick Cheney. These calls come from alleged malfeasance. But on this date in 1804, there is no doubt about it…the Vice-President of the United States gunned down Revolutionary War hero Alexander Hamilton.

Hamilton had been an aide-de-camp of Washington during the war and later led a crucial attack at the Battle of Yorktown. He became the first Secretary of the Treasury and served in that capacity for 6 years before retiring. He then formed the Federalist Party, the first political party in America. He detested Thomas Jefferson and the two developed what became known as Hamiltonian ideals and Jeffersonian ideals. Basically, Hamilton wanted a strong central government and Jefferson was for a weak central government with most of the power belonging to the states. Today, Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Anyway, in 1804, Burr was the sitting Vice-President under Jefferson and Hamilton had made some unsavory remarks about Burr, who responded with a challenge to a duel! Hamilton had been famous for dueling but had ironically pushed to outlaw the practice in New York. So, Hamilton and Burr went across the river to New Jersey. On this date in 1804, two shots rang out in Weehawken, New Jersey. Hamilton lay mortally wounded. There is great speculation regarding the incident as many suggest that Hamilton missed on purpose as he was a veteran duelist and a good shot. But there were procedures if one was to desire to not shoot one’s opponent. Hamilton did not follow the procedures. Witnesses could not determine who fired first. But what did happen, is that Burr was forced to stay out of New York for the remainder of his term as murder charges were filed. He is now left to nothing more as a footnote to history. Alexander Hamilton, on the other hand, has lived in immortality as the face of the ten dollar bill.

Henry Clay in 1809 was in a Kentucky duel. He was lucky. Both he and his opponent were lousy shots.

While Dick Cheney did in fact shoot his friend with a shotgun blast, the calls for his impeachment have nothing to do with his shooting prowess.

Global Warming Causes Delusional Behavior? Bertha’s Hurricane Behaviour July 9, 2008

There are those who claim that proponents of anthropogenic global warming are lunatics. The word lunatic has actually become a catch all phrase for anything from people with wild ideas, to those who disagree with us to those who are actually mentally ill. It actually arises from early times when it was thought that mental illness had something to do with the phases of the moon, thus the latin root usage of luna.

It would seem now that researchers have in fact found a psychiatric condition related to global warming though it is not for the proponents but instead for some who may have developed a deep seeded fear of the phenomenon that is so widely talked about in the press and other media. Here is a story about it from the Melbourne HeraldSun, the actual article and a commentary. You can make of it what you will.

However, I will say that if this condition is true for this young man, then it would be evidence that perhaps there needs to be more responsible reporting and discussion on the topic and stop the hyped up stories and just give the facts without scaring people literally out of their minds.

Melbourne Herald Sun-Doomed to a Fatal Delusion over Climate Change

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry report cited by HeraldSun

Commentary From related science blog Regarding Report

Bertha Shows Some Resilience:

Hurricane Bertha, as I noted yesterday was looking pretty good on the late satellite photo…certainly better than 24 hours earlier. I suggested that perhaps it would get a little stronger and, indeed, it has as it moved back over some warmer water. The forecast suggests that it will still have some warm water to work with but the forecasters feel that as it turns north, it will get into some more upper shear that will displace and disrupt the upper support enough that it begins to erode again. They still have it taking a more northeasterly course at the end but…there are a few models out there that I have seen that continue to suggest it moves more northwest off the Maine Coast before going inland in the coastal regions of the Canadian Maritime area. One such model does an interesting thing as it kinda pinwheels around an upper low. If this were to come true, and there is nothing in the official forecast that even suggests it, then it would produce some news headlines, I’m sure. What is not certain is what Bertha’s whereabouts will be after 72 hours though it still should largely be a problem for maritime interests.

Hurricane Bertha Midday July 7 July 7, 2008

What you see at the top above is the Sea Surface Temperature Analysis from Sunday. If you correlate the location of Bertha with the warming temperatures, you will note that intensification took place as it moved into warmer waters. The satellite image above looks very nice, though there is a flare-up of convenction north and east of the center. Otherwise, it’s become nicely concentric…which again I suspect is more from it getting into a warmer SST environment.

From this point forth, the storm will stay in an sea-surface environment of 80 degrees or greater, which is sufficient to maintain a hurricane. The general track remains true, though the official forcast track is farther east. There are several models that want to break down the ridge in fairly short order and start a turn north fairly soon. Should this happen, then it may even miss Bermuda to the east. Others want to take more time to break down the Mid-Atlantic ridge and so the westward progress would continue for a period before it encounters a trof off the US east coast. This would take the storm between Bermuda and the US mainland. The NHC is basically choosing spot in the middle. All of the models want to increase the intensity before it diminishes due to upper level shearing. However, if you note on the SST map…you see that the water temperatures also back down pretty quickly as you head toward Bermuda. I suspect this will eventually play a role in Bertha’s demise. Nevertheless, there is some question as to when the de-intensification begins. The NHC is decreasing the intensity toward the end of the time frame but not as dramatically as some models indicate…again sorta taking a middle of the road approach. At this point, Bertha is nothing more than a talking point for those who want to somehow link its unprecedented eastern development point so early in the year to global warming or for those who like to trumpet the first storm of the season….OR…if you are going to Bermuda…then it’s an issue. Otherwise, this is largely a concern for academic and maritime interests.