Woodrow Wilson: Did He Know The Lusitania Carried Munitions? May 7, 2010

RMS Lusitania

Lusitania Sank Awfully Fast

On This Date in History: On June 28, 1914 Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Yugoslav nationalist Gavrilo Princip. The Habsburg Austria-Hungarian government set it’s eyes on Serbia. Now, in his farewell address President George Washington warned the United States against getting involved in entangling treaties with foreign governments when he left office. World War I is a great example of his wisdom because European nations had mutual defense agreements among one another. An attack on Serbia meant an attack on Russia. Germany had previously announced support for Austria. England had vowed support for Russia, the French for the Russians and so forth. Basically, Europe chose up sides in a Baltic conflict which is why there was such a rush during the Clinton Administration to stem the conflict in that region in the 1990′s before it expanded.

Europe Gets It On in 1914

Toward the end of 1914, hostilities opened up with Germany invading Belgium, Luxemborg and France while Austria-Hungary was invading Serbia and Russia attacked Prussia. In the meantime, perhaps keeping to the wisdom of General Washington, the United States decided to sit this one out. While all parties in Europe thought it would be a short war, Americans thought it was “over there” and not their business. America though had experienced strengthening ties with the mother country, England. While America declared neutrality, most Americans privately sided with England and some press reports about supposed attrocities by the Germans did not help change public opinion. Nevertheless, President Woodrow Wilson took a strong, public and vocal stance regarding the neutrality of the United States and expected all parties to recognize the US as such.

Coded and Deciphered Version of Zimmerman Telegram

The Germans, however, were skeptical of the United States. Not only did they think that the true sympathy of the Americans was on the side of the Allies, but they suspected that Uncle Sam was providing materials to support the Allied war effort. Though it was slightly smaller than the RMS Titanic had been, the RMS Lusitania was still one of the largest ocean liners in the world at the time. Between 1907 and 1915, the Lusitania made 202 transatlantic crossings. On this date in 1915, the German submarine U-20 sank the RMS Lusitania . All British shipping was ordered to travel at full speed and in a zig zag pattern as a precaution against German U-Boat activity. Germany had already declared unrestricted submarine warfare against all shipping in the Atlantic providing munitions or aid toward the allied effort in the war. Theorthetically, the Lustitania should have been exempt from submarine attack as it was a luxury passenger liner and it was filled with civilians.

Why Was a Royal Navy Officer Like Captain Turner at the helm of the civlian RMS Lusitania?

On May 7, 1915 the Lusitiania ran into some thick fog so Captain William Thomas Turner slowed the ship and stopped zig zagging. It was an easy shot for the U-Boat. Some 1200 went down with the ship including 128 Americans. The attack resulted in a letter of protest from President Woodrow Wilson. The Germans claimed the ship was carrying munitions. The US denied the charge and the American public grew quite angry as passions against the Germans grew. The sneak attack on perhaps the most luxurious passenger liner at the time created the image of the ruthlessness of the Germans. Nevertheless, the United States did not enter the war following the sinking. Nearly two years later, America learned of the Zimmerman Telegram (the British coincidentally provided it to the Americans) in which the Germans proposed that Mexcio attack the US should the Americans enter the war. The sinking of the Lusitania primed the pump but the Zimmerman Telegram was the ultimate catalyst that led to the US entry into the Great War.

Here’s the rub. The Germans were right. The Lusitania was carrying munitions.

Captain Walther Schwieger: Justified in Sinking Lusitania?

When the U-20 slammed it’s torpedo into the starboard side of the RMS Lusitania, almost immediately a secondary explosion rocked the ship. The torpedo explosion probably wouldn’t have sunk the ship but the second explosion caused a huge gash in the hull and the great liner sank in just 18 minutes. The story that was told to the American public was that the Germans fired at least two torpedoes. That was false. What the people did not know was that the passenger liner was indeed carrying a deadly cargo  as a manifest shows tons of munitions and supplies for the war effort. As it turns out, the British had regularly used passenger ships as supply transports, disguised warships as merchant ships, armed merchant ships and utilized Q-ships which were disguised military ships that flew a neutral country’s flag as cover. The Lusitania, along with its sister ship Mauritania, had intially been taken out of service as part of the war effort before it returned to regular service. And, both the Lusitania and Mauritania were listed in the British Naval Packet Book and Jane’s Fighting Ships as armed merchantmen. No wonder U-20 Captain Walther Schwieger went ahead and attacked. Schwieger later told of the attack:

A U-20 Class German U-Boat

“When the steamer was two miles away it changed its course. I had no hope
now, even if we hurried at our best speed, of getting near enough to attack her…. I saw the steamer change her course again. She was coming directly at us. She could not have steered a more perfect course if she had deliberately tried to give us a dead shot….I had already shot away my best torpedoes and had left only two bronze ones…not so good. The steamer was four hundred yards away when I gave an order to fire. The torpedo hit, and there was a rather small detonation and, then after, instantly a much heavier one. The pilot was beside me. I told him to have a look at close range. He put his eye to the periscope and after a brief scrutiny yelled: ‘My God, it’s the Lusitania.’”

Lusitania Sinking Did Not Lead Directly to US Entrance in World War I

The Lusitania’s Captain Turner was an officer of the Royal Navy, not the Cunard Line. On April 24, 1915 the German government had taken out ads in some 40 US newspapers announcing that a state of war existed between Germany and Great Britain and that passengers would travel by steamship at their own risk. After the sinking of the Lusitania, Wilson urged the American public to remain neutral and he sent the protest letter to Kaiser Wilhelm stating that Germany would be held to “strict accountability” if the attacks conitnued. If the president really thought that it was a naked attack on civlians, might he not do something more than write a letter? Earlier, Wilson had offered to arbitrate an end to the war and both sides refused. But, German Ambassador asked President Wilson on September 2, 1916 if he would help negotiate an end to the war in return for a German withdrawl from Belgium. The great peacemaker Wilson refused! He wanted to wait until after the upcoming presidential election. He apparently was afraid that if he helped negotiate a peace that it might hurt his re-election chances. He knew that he had a small chance of ending the war and he passed it up in favor of political concerns. It went on for two more years. What else did he know and ignore for political reasons?

Wilson Lied?

Wilson claimed that the RMS Lusitania was strictly a civilian ship and carried no munitions. We know that is not true. I have yet to read anything in historical annals that say that President Wilson lied. I suppose he had plausible deniability and historians have given him a pass. In January 1917, Germany resumed unrestricted submarine warfare. In February 1917, the British made the Zimmerman Telegram available to the Americans. In subsequent weeks, the Germans sank a few more ships. So, on April 2, 1917, President Woodrow Wilson asked Congress to declare war on Germany, which it did two days later. The question as to whether Wilson knew that the Lusitania was hiding munitions among its passengers will never be known. But we do know that nearly 20 million people perished in The Great War.

SPC Severe Risk Fri AM to Sat AM

SPC Friday Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  Friday is here.  We have our cold front approaching.  There is a severe threat but it really does look like Ohio will be the target as that is the region with the parent low.  I just don’t think that the atmosphere had enough time to recover from the weak front that came through and brought such pleasant conditions on Thursday and a cool Friday start.  Southwesterly winds will be helping to move temperatures well into the 80′s and moisture will be increasing.  We have a bit of a cap on the atmosphere so afternoon heating will have to work on that and it should put a lid on any afternoon stuff.  I suspect that the front will create storms, there may be some gusty winds and a little rain but otherwise, I’m not totally convinced that there will be more than that.  Regardless of what my gut is telling me, the SPC does have our region in a slight risk for severe storms for late Friday night.

SPC Severe Wind Probability Friday

As I had mentioned yesterday, the dynamics look great for the late afternoon but by the time we actually get rainfall according to the models, the dynamics back off.  However, between the afternoon heating and the dynamics that are remaining, t’storms will probably be in the area.  Keep in mind though that both the GFS and NAM are not very enthusiastic about rainfall, which seems odd.  The NAM only advertises less than 1/10th of an inch of rain while the GFS is only .028 inches.  What this tells me is that rainfall amounts will vary with regions that get an errant thunderstorm getting more and places in between getting decidedly less. The Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center has jumped on board with this scenario as well as they are looking at perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain for the region with the heaviest amounts of up to 1.5″ around the Great Lakes.  That previous little front really knocked out the moisture and, as I said, it should serve to limit our rain potential.  That is fine with most people because we had our fair share of rain last weekend.  On a side note, I had a guy tell me some time ago that the Old Farmer’s Almanac worked on an assumption of a 7 day cycle.  So, if they initiated the weather correctly at the beginning of the year then it was astonishingly accurate.  I used to teach class on Thursday evenings and I noticed that 6 out of 7 Thursdays we had thunderstorms.  This is the 3rd consecutive weekend that we’ve had a cold front come through and bring t’storms.  It’s kinda interesting.

SPC Severe Hail Probability Friday

Anyway, the nitty gritty of the indicies reveals that the 6Z NAM had a CAPE of 1937, CINS of 5, Helicity 191, Bulk Richardson Number 32.34, Lifted Index of -5.5, the Total Totals at 54, K-Index of 29, Showalter index of -5 and SWEAT Index of 493.  Normally, I’d say that those numbers indicate a round of strong thunderstorms with the possibility of hail, high winds and even a tornado or two.  All of those numbers are high except the K index, which I think is telling and the Total Totals.  But, when it begins to rain at 8PM, the CAPE falls to 1436, the CINS stays up there at 6, the Helicity falls significantly to 66, BRN is still rather high at 26.73, TT falls to 48, the K-Index actually rises but is still not all that impressive at 34,  SHOW falls to -1 and the SWEAT goes to 353.  Suddenly, when it starts to rain its not so great.  The GFS is similar with the CAPE going from 1012 to 868, CINS is off the scale but falls to 22 which is still pretty good, BRN goes from 22.31 to 17.29, LI holds relatively steady from -2.7 to -2.2, K Index is a pedestrian 21 and goes down to a weak 17, SHOW is -2 to -1 and the SWEAT index is 414 to 351.   The GFS numbers are from 4PM to 7 PM with rain starting sometime between 7 and 10 pm, but it ain’t much.  The SWEAT numbers tell me that that there will be some wind energy available but it would appear that by the time anything gets here, the energy is rapidly depleting as the evening wears on.  The front is strong and should supply some lift for storms, but otherwise, it’s worth a look but not worth putting your house on the market.

America’s First Woman President September 25, 2009

First Woman US President?

The Happy Couple

On This Date in History:  In the most recent presidential election cycle, Hillary Clinton was considered the front runner for the nominee of the Democratic Party until she was bested by Barack Obama who eventually won the election as President of the United States.  It was seen a race for the potential for firsts.  If Obama won the election, he would be the first African American president in the nation’s history.  If Clinton won, she would be the first female  president in the nation’s history.  Or would she?  Certainly Ms. Clinton would have been the first elected president of the United States but there are those who say we’ve already had a de facto female president.   The sequence of events that led to that conclusion began on this date in 1919.

President Woodrow Wilson was making a public speaking engagement in Pueblo, Colorado when he suddenly collapsed.  The president had suffered a serious stroke.  Now, the president’s wife was Edith.  She was a descendant of Pocahontas who had little formal education which contrasted greatly with Wilson, who had a PhD.  Edith was a political neophyte as she was not his wife when he was first elected in 1912.  In fact, she couldn’t even remember who she voted for in the 1912 election.    One thing that she had in common with the president was that each one had suffered the death of a spouse.  It was but a quirk of fate that Edith met the bereaved president and they soon married.  Apparently, Wilson needed female companionship greatly and when Edith Bolling Galt became Edith Bolling Galt Wilson, she became a very close confidante.

Working on a Crossword Puzzle of Reviewing Policy?

So, when Wilson became disabled by his stroke, she was able to quickly pick up the reigns and then some.  She barred everyone from seeing the ailing president.  Cabinet officers and trusted aides alike were kept from seeing Wilson.   Edith insisted that she had no role in executive decisions saying, “the only decision that was mine was what was important and…when to present matters to my husband.”  Well, even if her role was limted to what she admitted, then she was still a key figure because it was up to her what the president saw and when he saw it.  She was the sole arbitor of what was important and what he needed to consider.  It’s unclear whether she was behind the public reports regarding Wilson’s health, but the public was told that the president was recovering.  The truth as that he was partially paralyzed and nearly blind.  That would mean that he was probably unable to read any documents or correspondence and so Edith would be in charge of the content of just about anything that he heard.  The Washington Post in 2007 revealed the new information has come to light that confirms both Edith and the doctors conspired to cover-up the severity of Wilson’s medical condition.

Edith Handled Correspondence But Her Signature is rarely found by collectors

She became known as the “Iron Queen,”  “Presidentress” and “The Regent” with one senator referring to the situation as the “Petticoat Government.”  When there was a presidential address to Congress scheduled, the message was sent  in the form of a patchworks of reports from Cabinet members.  Those reports included penciled in corrections by Edith, as if she was grading the school work of a child.  Lawmakers were convinced that Wilson never knew nothing about the message to Congress or much of anything else that was coming from his office.  The last year’s of his presidency are largely seen a ineffective and many suggest that the government was tightlycontrolled by the First Lady.  Here is an excerpt from an Edith Wilson biography that illustrates the level of her control:

Lansing: Fired by Edith?

“When the Secretary of State Robert Lansing conducted a series of Cabinet meeting without the President, the first being in October 1919, Edith Wilson considered it an act of disloyalty and pushed for his replacement with the more acquiescent Bainbridge Colby. Wilson requested Lansing’s resignation in February 1920. As her husband began partially to recover, she also guarded access to him from advisors and other political figures. When Republican Senator Albert Fall was sent to investigate the President’s true condition, Edith Wilson helped arrange Wilson in bed to be presentable and sat through the brief meeting, taking verbatim notes.

In September 1919, Edith Wilson refused to have the U.S. accept the credentials of British representative Edward Grey who had been sent by his government to aid in the push for ratification of Wilson’s League of Nations unless Grey dismissed one of his aides who was known to have made demeaning jokes at her expense.”

Wilson died in 1924.  He is buried at the National Cathedral in Washington DC.  Actually, I believe I saw his place of final rest in the Washington National Cathedral.   Edith carefully preserved memorabilia and managed his legacy.  At the age of 89, she attended the inauguration of President John F. Kennedy.  Shortly thereafter, Edith Wilson died and, as part of her obituary, the New York Times observed that “some went so far as to characterize her as the first woman president of the United State.”  There are those today who agree that, without the title, sympathetically Edith Wilson was indeed the first woman president of the United States. 

SPC Severe Probability Sat AM to Sun AM

Weather Bottom Line:   There was a flash flood watch for our area through Saturday but since no wide spread rain materialized in the Friday’s gloom, it was cancelled.  The concern was the amount of rain we had received and the amount expected.  There is a cold front moving our way which will take us from a warm, moist airmass to one that is dry and coolish.  From tropical maritime to polar continental.  I had suggested some days ago that it was in this transition on Saturday that we may have some strong storms.  As it is, the SPC does not feel the threat warrants a designation of a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, but it does put parts of our area under the dreaded 5% risk of severe storms.  So, my assertion of the potential for strong storms remains, but the probability of any of those storms turning technically severe is minimal.  Here’s what the SPC has to say about our region:

UPPER LOW THAT HAS MEANDERED ABOUT THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION FOR THE
   LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BE KICKED EWD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN
   TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SPEED MAX ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
   BORDER.  IN FACT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
   UP ACROSS ERN KS/MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN QUICKLY EJECT INTO ERN
   OH/WRN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS A POCKET OF
   FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES…H5 ON THE ORDER OF MINUS
   16-18C…WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF MO/IL BY MID DAY…THEN INTO IND BY
   MID AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS
   REGION IT APPEARS FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   GENERATING HAIL.  A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT…PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18-00Z
   TIME FRAME NORTH OF MID LEVEL JET CORE.

Rain Total Forecast For Saturday and Sunday

We will have a round of heavy rain with some accumulation totals of 1-2 inches but the SPC and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) don’t look for particularly nasty weather or excessive rainfall.  But, the sliver of the rain totals of greater than 3 inches has expanded since the last forecast and remains just to our east, encompassing most of east Kentucky.  So, it’s worth keeping up on.  Once the front moves through, we turn drier on Sunday…should be a great day.  Then we get the follow-up shot of cooler air.  I still suspect that on Monday night, there will be several temperature reports in the 40′s and Tuesday afternoon some folks may not get out of the 60′s.  Fall is here.