Good Weather For Preakness 2010; Still Attendance Questions May 12, 2010

Click on Image For Official Preakness Site

In previous years, taking target practice with beers at guys running on port-o-cans was popular...not this year

The Preakness:  Last year I went to the Preakness and I  was looking forward to witnessing the infamous infield party that I had heard so much about.  I was told it was extremely wild. I had heard about port-o-can races in which people raced across the top of the portable bathrooms lined up in areas of the infield.  What I learned was that, not only did people race, but spectators routinely threw beer cans at the racers in a make-shift game of a shooting gallery.  When I got to the infield, it was very sparsely attended.  Apparently local officials felt that the infield, which was said to have reached numbers of 60,000, was too wild.  Last year, they disallowed attendees from bringing their own beer.  Infield tickets were priced at $50.  I thought that I saw a pack of cigarettes priced at $10.  One blogger claims that there were specials of $1 pints of beer available, but I tend to recall witnessesing something closer to the Washington Post’s  story that asserted beer was sold at $3.50 for a 16 oz beer.  They had concerts all during the races with some bands that I did not know.  There was a big stage with huge monitors pointed away from the main grandstands and away from the VIP tenst set up adjacent to the front stretch on the infield.  ZZ Top was the headliner in the afternoon.  I think I got the treat of seeing the “little old band from Texas” with about 200 other people.  Beyond the dearth of people, what else that was interesting was that how the grandstands could barely hear anything that was going out over the speakers.  Attendance was down 31%.  I believe that the number at Pimlico was about 77,000 whereas in 2008 the attendance number was about 112, 000.

Pimlico Officials are Hopeful that New Policies Will Make Last Year's Showing to be Just An Abberration

So, this year they are modifying the policy.  Infield goers still can’t bring their own beer, but the ticket price has been lowered to $40.  Also, the Washington DC NBC affiliate reports that revelers will be permitted to drink all the beer that they want after purchasing a mug for $20.   You can also bring in picnic lunches.  Sorry, no thermoses.  They are also going for bands that might be more attractive to younger patrons with the Maryland band O.A.R. as well as a country music entry, Grammy Award winners the Zac Brown Band.  The story ends with a Pimlico official as saying that ticket sales are outpacing last year.  That in itself shouldn’t be too difficult.  The real question is how much higher is the sales pace?  This blog claims that “Sanity reigns at the Preakness.”  The organizers hope that sanity still reigns on the infield because, in spite of the liberalized pricing policy, they still have rules at Pimlico.  Regardless of where you are at Pimlico to see if Calvin Borel can win the second leg of the Triple Crown, the weather will be outstanding.

SPC Severe Risk Thu AM to Fri AM well Northwest of Pimlico

Front Through Baltimore By Saturday Morning with High Pressure Building In

Preakness Stakes 2010 Weather Forecast for Pimlico:  The general pattern of disturbed weather is mainly for the Midwest and part of the Ohio Valley as there is a big trof that will be slowly moving west to east and little waves of energy will be ejecting from the Southern Plains to the Northeast.  As the trof moves East, the shower activity will move with it. However, the shortwave energy will not be rounding about as the mean trof approaches the Mid-Atlantic.  Hence, while scattered showers and t’storm will be possible for Thursday and Friday with Friday being the best chance for thunderstorms around the track, I see nothing in the data that suggest much of severe weather.  The main storm track will be well to the Northeast such that the risk for severe weather will be in the Ohio Valley and points North for Thursday into Thursday night. 

High Pressure Contnues to Build In Through Sunday Morning

The front eases through Baltimore on Saturday morning, probably before daybreak.  From that point forth, high pressure will be building in with drier air filtering in.  The NAM vertical profile suggests that in the early to mid afternoon there may be a relatively thin cloud deck at 5000 feet.  The GFS also has a layer of higher moisture at that level but does not indicate a solid deck.  Guess here is that it’s partly cloudy at best.  The high continues to build in throughout the day on Saturday from the Northwest.  I would think that there might be a breeze from the the North and then Northeast with relatively low humidity.  Preakness post time temperatures  will be running in the mid 70′s.  While there will be a risk for rain on Thursday and Friday, I see nothing that suggests anything overly excessive and the drying trend on Saturday I would think would result in a relatively fast track, certainly nothing like the mud that we saw at the Kentucky Derby.  Final hint:  Bet Big, Win Big.

Speed Killed Casey Jones; Speed Will Win the Kentucky Derby April 30, 2010

John Luther Jones: Man, Myth, Legend

Casey Jones' Legend Etched in Stone

On This Date in History:   John Luther Jones was born on March 14, 1863 in Missouri while the  Civil War was in full swing.  In 1876, the family moved to Cayce, Kentucky.   John Luther  was over 6’4″ tall and had gray eyes and dark hair.  He loved trains since he was a young boy and his fascination with the iron horse only increased as he watched them come and go from the Cayce depot.  He was born during the Civil War and in 1878, at the age of 15, he took a job with the Mobile and Ohio Railroad as a telegrapher and six years later moved to Jackson, TN where he continued with the Mobile and Ohio as a flagman.   

John Luther "Casey" Jones

 

When he moved to Jackson, the men with whom he worked asked where he was from.  Locally, Cayce was pronounced with two syllables so the men started calling him “Casey” Jones.  In 1884, he married Miss Mary Joanna ”Janie” Brady who was the daughter of the woman who ran the boarding house in which he resided in Jackson.  The couple settled down in Jackson and had three children together.  Casey was not a drinking man and was thought to have been devoted to his family.  He certainly was devoted to railroading because in fairly short order, he was promoted first to brakeman by the Mobile and Ohio and then to firemen.  His big break came through the misfortune of others.  A yellow fever epidemic struck and the illness took its toll on the crews of the Illinois Central Railroad.  With a shortage of experienced people, the Illinois Central provided a unique opportunity for rapid advancement of firemen to engineers.   So,  Jones left the only company for which he had ever worked and went to the greener pastures of the Illinois Central.  

Sim Webb lived to tell the tale

 

In March 1888 he started work for his new employer and on February 23, 1891 Casey Jones became an engineer for the Illinois Central Railroad.  He developed a reputation for his fierce desire to always be on time.  His reputation for punctuality was so well known it is said that people could set their watch by the passage of his train.  He also developed a distinct style of operating the steam whistle.  Janie Jones said, “he established a sort of trade mark for himself by his inimitable method of blowing a whistle. It was a kind of long-drawn-out note that he created, beginning softly, then rising, then dying away almost to a whisper. People living along the Illinois Central right of way between Jackson and Water Valley would turn over in their beds late at night and say: ‘There goes Casey Jones,’ as he roared by.”   

The Skipper (Alan Hale, Jr) Was Casey Jones in Short Lived 1958 TV Show

 

Now, the Illinois Central had a passenger run from Chicago to New Orleans which involved 4 different trains.  Jones was given engine number 638 for the Memphis to Canton, MS link.  This service came to be known as a “Cannonball Run,” which was a generic term for fast or express passenger and freight trains.  Keep in mind that Jones did not like to be behind schedule and he had already been deemed a hero for his 1895 rescue of a little girl.  Jones had been doing maintenance work on the engine when he saw some kids dart in front of the locomotive.  All crossed the track except the one girl who froze on the tracks as the train approached.  Jones supposedly perched himself atop the cowcatcher and snatched the child from the tracks as the train approached.   

Casey Jones' Illinois Central Engine 638

 

At 10 PM on April 29, 1900, Casey Jones’ pulled his train behind engine 638 into the Canton station and, when he was ready to go home, he heard someone say that engineer Joe Lewis was ill and could not take out the engine 382 for the return trip to Memphis.   Jones volunteered to take on the duty.  By the time they left at 12:50 AM,  he was already more than an hour and a half behind schedule so he had his fireman, Sim Webb, ”open it up.”   Casey had a reputation for going too fast and  I suppose that’s how he made sure that he kept his schedule.   This night was no different.   At times that night,  John D’Angelo of virtual railroader says it’s entirely possible that the “Cannonball” reached speeds close to 100 mph.  Jones came upon a freight train on a side track and so Jones reduced his speed to a still rapid 50 mph as he intended to pass.  This particular freight train was long.  So long, in fact, that the rear cars were on the main track.  Casey figured that they would do as normal and that is ”sawing.”  As Jones train passed, the freight train would move forward so as to clear the rear cars from the main line prior to Jones’ engine 382 arriving.  The trouble was that the engineer of the freight train did not realize just how fast Casey Jones was moving and they did not move their freight train forward fast enough.   

Casey Jones Wreck Site 1900

 

As they came around a curve, Jones saw the freight cars on the track ahead and he shouted for Webb to jump.  As Webb lept to safety, Jones tooted his whistle and applied the brakes in vain.   Engine 382 of the Illinois Central Railroad plowed into the caboose of the freight train.  It is said that he had managed to slow his train down to 35 mph, thus saving all of the passengers but he was killed.  Sim Webb had landed in some bushes and was not injured.  Later ,he told Janie Jones, “that as I jumped Casey held down the whistle in a long, piercing scream. I think he must have had in mind to warn the freight conductor in the caboose so he could jump.”   The legend is that he was found with one hand clutching the whistle and the other the brake.   Casey Jones’ watch stopped at 3:52 AM  on this date in 1900 and his action is credited with saving the lives of all of the passengers.   In spite of the heroic lore that has followed his name, an investigation concluded that he was largely to blame for driving too fast.  

Saturday (Derby Day) Severe Weather Probability

 

HPC Rain total forecast estimate for Saturday (Derby Day)

 

Weather Bottom Line:  The Lentucky Oaks weather forecast and Kentucky Derby weather forecast could not be more different.  A frontal boundary is slowly plodding its way across the nation.  It will not arrive in Louisville in time to really affect that 136th Kentucky Oaks.  There is a very slight chance for a late afternoon isolated t’storm Friday afternoon but for the most part, it will be warm and breezy.  I think that it will be dry with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to perhaps the mid 80′s.  The data also suggests that conditions will still be favorable for all of the Kentucky Derby events for Friday night including the Brownstable-Brown Gala.  Previously, the data suggested rain chances increasing around midnight but the last few runs, all models have been holding off the rain until the 5AM to 7AM timeframe.  So, aside from late departures from the parties, it should be a fine night.  An unofficial Derby tradiition is cruising and the police have had issues over the years trying to control that activity.  This year should the cops should get some help from mother nature.  

HPC Sunday Forecast Rainfall Estimate

 

For Derby Day, rain will begin in the morning.  There is some disagreement on how much.  The 6Z NAM only throws out a half inch of rain into Saturday evening with most of that coming in the first half of the day.  The 6Z GFS though has about 2 inches of rain for the daylight hours of Saturday.  The Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center seems to split the difference and comes up with rain totals of 1.25 to 1.5 inches of rain for Saturday.   There is also a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday.  My biggest concern with this is that I think the best chance for tornadic activity will be in the same region of Arkansas and Mississippi that got hit with those brutal tornadoes last weekend.  What is going on is that there will be a shortwave moving up along the front through the Ohio Valley on Saturday morning.  Sensible weather wise, that should mean that after it passes, then rain chances diminish Saturday afternoon in Louisville.  While the jet streak moves to the northeast with the shortwave, there may still be sufficient jet stream venting to work with some afternoon heating to the mid to upper 70′s Saturday afternoon to trigger scattered rain and t’storms.  Obviously, the GFS is more bullish on this scenario.  I would not be surprised to see a wet track on Saturday but times of actual rain falling will be sporadic.  

SPC Sunday Severe Weather Outlook

 

Late Saturday, there will be another shortwave with the associated jet stream energy developing in the lower Mississippi Valley.  It should develop in such  a manner that a surface low will probably emerge.  It is in this developing area that the risk of tornadic activity will be its greatest.  As that low moves up along the front Saturday evening toward the Ohio Valley, a tremendous amount of moisture will be drawn up from the Gulf.  This entire system, in fact, is what is also drawing the oil in the Gulf of Mexico onto the Louisiana coast.  Rain chances will increase markedly on Saturday night with the risk of severe weather back in the picture.  My guess is that we would be talking about strong winds as the most likely threat for Sunday morning.  But, it’s the rain that has the attention of officials.  A Flood Watch is in effect for Saturday and Sunday in Louisville and I would not be surprised to see it extended through Monday morning as the NAM takes rain totals to nearly 5 inches by 7AM Monday and the GFS is closer to 4.5 inches.  The HPC is in line with these numbers as it adds another 3 to 3.5 inches for the Sunday AM to Monday AM timeframe.

The Greatest Maritime Disaster in US History: Sultana April 27, 2010

Steamboat Sultana Looked Overloaded to Everyone but the Captain

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

On this Date in History:  When we think of maritime disaster, one immediately thinks of the RMS Titanic.  After all, there have been numerous movies and documentaries that detail and discuss the incident.  When the news of the Titanic hit the papers, any other news of the day was lost to the backpages and buried.  Hence, when Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly across the English Channel, she had the misfortune of doing so the day after the Titanic sunk.  She died not too long after and so most Americans think of Amelia Earhart as the first lady of flight.  Back in 1865, the news of the killing of John Wilkes Booth on April 26 dominated the media.  So, when the greatest disaster in maritime history took place, it too was left to the backpages and since, like Harriet Quimby, has been largely lost in the conscience of American history.  Timing, they say, is everythying.

 The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded. The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers. On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2200 to 2500 former prisoners of war returning home on this date in 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers.  The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current. Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers. The deaths of at least 1700 souls was brought about by the fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, the river current was strong and turbulent and extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors.  Unlike the news of the sinking of the RMS Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Andersonville 1864

What adds to the tragedy is that the vast majority of those on-board were Union prisoners of war who had been held in the infamous Andersonville Confederate prison and other prisons such as Cahaba (aka Cahawba).  These soldiers, many wounded and extremely frail from their time in horrid prison conditions, wanted to get home as quickly as possible.  But, it was not just the desire to get home that resulted in the overloading of the boat.  I mean, the Captain could have simply said that his boat was full and told the rest to wait for the next one.  But, the policy of the government in providing transportation was to pay 5$ for each soldier transported.  Keep in mind that most soldiers received about $15 a month while they were fighting so $5 was a pretty good chunk of change.  It was such a good deal for the steamboats that boat captains regularly paid US Army officers $1.15 for every man that officer directed to a particular steamboat.  Bottom line is that the more people a captain could stuff on his boat, the greater his profit.

Andersonville Survivor-Many on the Sultana Were Very Frail

Now, the soldiers were loaded on board in Vicksburg, MS for a trip to Cairo, IL and the Sultana was just one of many boats providing transportation.  It was the chance of a lifetime for steamboat operators and any delay would result in the potential loss of profits.  So, when one of the boilers on the Sultana sprang a leak while in port at Vicksburg,   the captain ordered a patch be put on the leak.  This was a shortcut and perhaps a fatal mistake.  Most researchers suggest that the bulge in the boiler should have been removed and replaced.  But that would have taken about 4 days so the captain went the 1-day patch route.   If he had waited 4 days, other steamboats would certainly have picked up the precious cargo and there would be no way to make up for the loss as this mass transport would happen just once.   Historians Stephen Ambrose and Douglas Brinkley say that the US Army officers knew of the maintanence issues with the Sultana but were eager to get the $1.15 per man kick-back and loaded the unknowing soldiers on board.

On April 24, 1865 at about 9 pm, the Sultana cast off from Vicksburg.  Captain J. Cass Mason, who is described by the US Naval Institute as “respected” but “reckless,  told an army officer that he’d carried that many men in the past and that the boat was sturdy.  Mason was well aware that his boat was extremely overcrowded but did not consider it overloaded.  He assured the officer that the Sultana was a good ship and the men were in very capable hands.   The officer told Captain Moss, “Take good care of them.  They are deserving of it.”    With that, the ship was on its way to Memphis where on April 26, 1865 it stopped to pick up a load of coal.  At around midnight, it cast off again to continue it’s journey.  The repaired boiler exploded about 2 AM on this date in 1865 and the fact that it was only 7 miles upstream illustrates just how slow it was moving.  Between the load it was carrying and the flow of the river against it, it was only able to muscle 3.5 miles per hour.  The strain on the patch was too much.  It exploded and that caused two others to immediately blow up.  Fire raced through the boat, the two smokestacks fell and crushed many on the deck.  Keep in mind that a steamboat boiled water to create the steam so scalding water no doubt affected numerous passengers, many of whom were unable to move due to their condition and were in great pain from their wounds.

The Sultana was but 260 feet long with a draft of just 7 feet.  The RMS Titanic was 882 feet long.  The RMS Titanic had 2223 passengers and 700 survived the sinking while 1517 perished.  The much smaller Sultana carried 2200 to 2500 and 1700 to 1800  were killed in the disaster leaving  500 to 800  to survive initially, but 200 more would die later from their wounds.  The survivors of the Titanic were fortunate in that it was a still night with calm seas, but it was extremely cold and the water was freezing.  The weather conditions of the Sultana disaster weren’t nearly as cold, but the river had a very swift and turbulent current due to spring run-off from melting snow and seasonal rains upriver.  Those who escaped the exlosion had to fight the deadly current.  The boat itself was not completely destroyed in the explosion and fire but the hulk of wreckage floated downstream before ultimately sinking at Memphis where today it rests covered in mud and covered by the Mississippi River.

SPC Severe Probability Thurs AM to Fri AM

12Z Tue GFS Very Bullish for Rain Midday Derby Day

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m not convinced that it’s going to be dry for the Kentucky Derby Forecast.  The longer range models still show disagreement in that the European model keeps big storms several hundred miles to the West on Friday while the GFS has  a cold front draped across St. Louis.   Either way, we will get a warming trend ahead of the system beginning on Wednesday.  Moisture levels will also be increasing as we head to the low to mid 80′s. 

12Z Tue NAM Hold Rain Just West for Oaks Day

I still have an eyebrow raised about the prospects of severe weather around here but I don’t see a kicker.  Further, the GFS vertical profile prog doesn’t really present menacing severe indecies.  However, the GFS does throw out a little more than a half inch of rain for Friday afternoon which may mean we have a questionable Oaks Day Forecast.  I tend to think that we will be okay for Oaks Day.  I”m not sure if the progression will be as slow as the Storms Prediction Center seems to be going with, which is the European solution.  My guess is that the timing of this will be something in between the GFS and European.  Any slow down in the GFS solution will result in a pretty good Oaks Day.  But, the GFS throws out 2 inches of rain in Louisville from 1AM Saturday morning until 7 pm Derby Day.  Even if it’s slower, we get rain and t’storms for the afternoon.  Every model right now throws out some amount of rain for Derby Day.   So, if you are picking a horse early, a good mudder will be a wise decision.  However, I think the wisest thing will be to wait to make your wager.  There is such disagreement with the data that its difficult to really pin down a firm forecast.  While all indications are that we will have low level convergent flow and an increasing jet stream intensity, which would support t’storms, the timing is debatable.  Should that scenario play out and some sort of kicker like a shortwave come through the flow, then we’re talking severe potential.  I have a fair amount of confidence that the rain and t’storm chances will be high for Derby Day.  I feel pretty good about the idea that Oaks Day will be warm, breezy and partly cloudy.  But, there is enough uncertainty that its probably not a good idea to hang your derby hat just yet.

Farting Pig, Thirsty Camels Gain Attention of Australian Officials; Pre-Global Warming Storm Devastates London November 28, 2009

Weird Critter Stories in Australia

Camel Convention

What is going in the land down under. Parts of Australia have been suffering from a terrible drought. That has created a fire hazard and also brought out the camels. Yes, camels. Back in the 19th century, camels were imported into Australia.  There was a need for the beasts of burden for commercial and expeditionary ventures in the somewhat arid Western Australia.   Since that time, the offspring of those original visitors have multiplied. Even efficient camels need water and, with the severity of the current dry spell. a herd of at least 3000 camels has descended on a western Australia town to forage for water. They are causing so much damage and creating so much mayhem, Australian authorities are taking drastic steps to fend off the assault of camels on an Aussie town in the Northern Territory.

Contributor to Global Warming?

While the government deals with the camels, a fire department had to deal with a gas leak. They were called to a home expecting to find a leaking gas cylinder. Instead, firemen near Bendigo, Australia found the source of the gas was a pig. The fat porker is a family pet and firemen on the scene concluded that the gas odor in the area came from the pig when they heard it squeal loudly from one end and then play a not so melodious tune from the other.  Fire Chief Peter Harkins described the sound a “very full on.”  Unlike the family of balloon boy in the United States, the owners of the pig refused media requests for their story or for photographs of Australia’s most famous farting pig.  There is no regarding the pig’s effects on global warming or if the family must purchase carbon credits to offset the gas release by the family pet.

Great Storm of 1703 By J.S. Miller

Eddystone Lighthouse Before 1703 Storm

On This Date in History: On this date in 1703, an unusual and powerful storm finally ended in England. In it’s wake, some 10,000 to 30,000 were dead, including about 8,000 sailors aboard part of the English fleet anchored just offshore the island nation. Winds were well over hurricane force and apparently the storm stuck around for about two weeks. Claims were that the Thames river had 6 foot waves and 5000 homes were destroyed along the river on which London is built. The author of Robinson Crusoe,

Last Glimpse of Eddystone Lighthouse 1703

Daniel Defoe, reported a tornado that “snapped the body of an oak.” Henry Winstanley had designed and built the first Eddystone Lighthouse at Plymouth in 1696. Just a few weeks before the storm he expressed his desire that he be in his creation during the greatest storm of all time so he could see the effect on his tower. In the be-careful-what-you-wish-for department, he and those who resided there went down with the lighthouse when it was smashed to bits.

The details of the storm are varied. Some say the death toll was just 15,000 other 9000. The date can’t even be totally ascertained because of something about the switch between the Julian and Gregorian calenders. Either way, it was a huge storm; hurricane force winds, thousands dead, thousands of livestock dead, tornadoes, reports of a ship being lifted 800 feet inland by a waterspout and a cow getting lifted into a tree. Thousands of trees down across the country, monstrous waves….it was a doosey. Here is an account from The Weather Doctor Almanac. Seems just as reliable as other sources.

Can you imagine if that happened today? It happened 300 years ago, so it’s happened before. But, you can

Great Storm of 1987 Was Not Anything New For England

bet that Global Warming would get the blame this time around. Never mind that this wild storm happened all by itself during what was called the “mini-ice age” which was a 300-400 year period of extremely cold global temperatures that was partly the primer for the emigration to the New World. Nope, you know that Global Warming would be the culprit. Why do I know this with a certainty? Because the press has already reported it. On the 300th anniversary in 2003, the BBC put out this report, pointing to a storm that was not as strong but still devastating in 1987 as proof. Proof as what? That a storm reported in 1703 was still possible today?

So Cal 1938 Storms...Would A Such A Storm Today Be Blamed on Global Warming Even Though Such an Event Occured 70 Years Ago?

This is the type of nonsense that really hacks me as a meteorologist and historian. I think the anthropogenic global warming issue should be studied closely but, when the press and proponents put out this type of nonsense, it really hurts their credibility. Hurricane Katrina comes to mind. After that storm someone actually said that it was due to Global Warming. Never did the press point out that New Orleans did not get hit by a hurricane, Mississippi did. They did not point out that it was a strong 130 mph hurricane that had a huge storm surge but followed almost the exact same path as the incredibly powerful Hurricane Camille in 1969 with 200 mph winds. It was not unprecedented and, if one were to be basic and silly, one could draw the juvenile conclusion that Global Warming was making hurricanes weaker because Camille was was stronger than Katrina, followe the same path and was 36 years earlier. That is just as foolish a statement as claiming that Katrina was caused by Global Warming.

So, what does the Great 1703 Storm teach us? That large, powerful storms and unusual weather has been happening on the earth for a long, long time. Unexpectedly strong and severe situations will occur again, Global Warming or not. Beware of sources and media reports that try to offer such limited and simple evidence for climate changes of any kind and forever one should hold any reports from those sources with skepticism.

Freezing Line at all levels well south of Ohio Valley by Friday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  The past two weekends, Snow White and I have been graced with the hospitality of the Justice Racing Stables.  We were the guests at the upstart horse racing venture at Churchill Downs and John C. Nolley could not have been nicer.  In fact, every single person whom we encountered who was associated with the group was just outstanding.  I’ve never had a more favorable experience and impression of horse racing as I did with the folks at Justice Racing.  We really appreciate it.  Mr. Nolley has named me the meteorologist of Justice Racing.  I informed him that the quality of my forecasts will be directly tied to the value of his checks.

I told Mr. Nolley not to believe the calls for highs in the upper 40′s Thanksgiving or Friday.  I was a bit surprised though by how much sunshine we had in the afternoon.  Saturday, it looks as if a warm front comes through as ridging builds in pretty quickly.  This should result in temperatures in the afternoon about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Friday afternoon and will probably be the warmest we see for several days.  A front comes down on Sunday night.  Clouds will be increasing on Sunday so it will be a few degrees cooler on Sunday than Saturday.  Let’s say mid 50′s.  Rain chances shoot upward on Sunday night into early Monday.  The front leaves behind a big fat cut-off low in the SW United States but another big trof in the northern jet stream will come out of the northwest and pick up that low.  As the second front comes in mid week, the cut-off low will get picked up, move into southeast Texas and then up into the Southeast US.  That will mean another chance for rain and also a further fall in the mercury.  Highs Monday-Wed will be in the 40′s but by Thursday and Friday we may be talking about highs in the 30′s.

Kentucky Derby Forecast Right On; Big Win For Bill May 3, 2008

The forecast as previously outlined is right on track.  As of 7AM the corridor of support and moisture is just east of Downtown Louisville and moving slowly East.  The infield will be wet.  The track is not synthetic and so it too will be muddy in spite of the drainage, though winds may dry it out.  The track received over an inch of rain on Friday and somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/3 to 3/4 of an inch overnight.  The front at 7AM is northwest of St. Louis and looks on line to make an appearance Saturday afternoon.  Temperatures prior to passage should be in the low to perhaps mid 70′s.  I suspect that we will see a period of sunshine but the clouds will return with the front and it may squeeze out some largely inconsequential showers; certainly I wouldn’t look for a deluge like on Friday. Temperatures will fall back to the 60′s following frontal passage.

Keep up with live radar displays on WLKY.com  It’s not 5 minutes old like other outlets. It’s really a live streaming of our in-house SuperDoppler32 radar.  Just click on the radar on the front page.

LIVE WLKY SUPERDOPPLER32 RADAR LINK
 
On This Date In Derby History: 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker became the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby when he rode Ferdinand to victory on this date in 1986.

When I was a kid, I didn’t really follow horse racing and I don’t now too much.  But, I did know about Shoe and I cheered him whenever we watched any of the Triple Crown races.  It seems like horse racing was bigger back then.  TV ratings  today are down but that can be said for many sports as there are more TV choices and more choices for people to spend their entertainment dollars.  But…I have a theory that I think would help horse racing and it has to do with the media and presentation.

Average fans with a partial interest like me didn’t know who the trainers were.  We knew guys like Shoemaker and Arcaro.  We knew of the horses like Seattle Slew and Ferdinand.  I even remember Bee Bee Bee and Ariva Ridge.  But I noticed a few years ago that when a horse won the Derby, the announcer said, “and D. Wayne Lucas wins again!” and they showed the owners of the horse, interviewed the owners and Mr. Lucas.  NASCAR has grown in popularity and I’m a casual fan like I am of horse racing.  But I know of Jeff Gordon. I know of Dale Earnhardt, Jr and even Dale Jarrett.  Their crew chief is extremely important. The owner is important.  But it’s the drivers who are promoted. Fans can relate to the guy(or gal, Danica) who is out there risking their lives and doing the driving.  When Dale Earnhardt won a big race, the announcer didn’t first say “and (crew chief name)  wins again!”  They said that Dale Earnhardt won.  They didn’t focus on the owner, they focused on the driver. 

All I’m suggesting is that if they went back to promoting and focusing on the jockey doing the riding and putting his hide on the line and the horse who is actually doing the running, then maybe casual fans like me would have more interest and have someone to  cheer for.  I can’t get all worked up cheering for some guy walking around who trains the horse. I don;’t even know what that is. I mean, do they actually ride the horses in training or do they just  stand there and tell someone else what to do.  It seems like to me the trainer is like the crew chief. Very important and vital to success but not the guy fans want to cheer for.  Same with the owner. Ownership is vital. Look at baseball. If you have a crummy owner you have a crummy team.  George Steinbrenner took some focus off the team but people cheer for the Yankees, not him.  I can’t relate to a guy in a nice suit sitting in the stands and then get all worked up for  him if  his horse wins.  It’s the jockey.   When the Giants won the Super Bowl, they focused on Eli Manning.  Then they talked about head coach Tom Coughlin but the focus was primarily on Manning and the big plays. We cheer for the players.

As I said I’m a casual fan and that’s my opinion for what it’s worth.  I brought this up one time to someone who owned a horse and I got slammed, big time.  So, take it for what it’s worth.  Remember Bill Shoemaker today and enjoy the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  For all of you visitors out there, enjoy Louisville, its a great town. I’m not a native but I love this place and I love the photo of two of my favorite sports figures of all time: Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Shoemaker.
 
 

Derby Forecast Threatens the Winner’s Circle? What About Mr. Nightlinger? May 2, 2008

Okay…I told you all along that I was most concerned with this afternoon and that proved to be even more of the case than I anticipated. I think I said that the chance for monkeybusiness was better for Friday afternoon than Friday night but I didn’t bargain for a whole barrel of monkeys.  The day was decent until about noon and then it became evident that we were in for a lousy afternoon.  We were in a rather odd spot in that the atmosphere was pretty stable basically from just a tad west of I-65 and points east. Consequently, the storms moving in got zapped.  That didn’t surprise me.  What was of more significant was the length and coverage of the rain event.  We were just out of reach of the big time unstable air.  At least 7 people were killed in Arkansas and they had some pretty impressive looking supercells in western Tennessee with a few wandering into Western Kentucky.

Anyway…still looking for this activity to move out by the early evening.  Then another round comes in well after midnight.  Perhaps some rumbles of thunder but the severe threat will be minimal at best.  As I mentioned all week, the timing is no good, which is why I thought that Friday was a better time for the focus. This rain we’ve had has just used up the potential energy and it will be very difficult to reload overnight.  In fact, some data indicates that there may not be much at all as activity to the south cuts off much of the moisture and energy.  Nevetheless. any rain early on Derby Day should be done by say..8 AM or so. Then its generally dry. The true cold front should come through around 2 or 3 pm and there remains a relatively low possibility for a thin line or scattered activity with the frontal passage.  Some of the modeling data even suggests just clouds.  For the actual Derby race, it should be dry with temperatures backing off the early afternoon highs of the mid 70′s.  There will be a decent breeze.

Note the SPC and it’s severe threat for tomorrow is well to the south.

On This Date In History: Roscoe Lee Brown was born on this date in 1925 in Woodbury, New Jersey. He was a great actor who was educated at, among other places, Columbia University.  I didn’t know that he was track star and also taught French and Literature.  I liked him as Jebediah Nightlinger in The Cowboys.  I told you earlier today about how the dastardly Bruce Dern shot John Wayne in the back in The Cowboys.  Well, Roscoe Lee Brown helped do in Bruce Dern(Long Hair), making him one of the heroes of swift justice in cinematic lore! And very appropriately, if not ironically, on the 83rd anniversary of Roscoe Lee Brown’s birth, a horse named Mr. Nightlinger ran in one of the races (Aegon Turf Sprint) for Oaks Day.  Mr. Nightlinger was the favorite and won.  I’m sure Mr. Brown would have loved it. 

Rain to Continue For Much of Kentucky Oaks May 2, 2008

The rain will persist until about 3pm or perhaps some lingering showers a bit longer than that at Churchill Downs.  As mentioned previously, we have a much more stable atmosphere than the area of the genesis of the storms so as they moved in, the lightning has decreased.  But, it’s still raining and there is a secondary line that will be pushing through Churchill around 2:45 and that could have some gusty winds.

Beyond this, the evening will improve.  Early tomorrow morning we still have a shot at more rain and t’showers as there is a boundary well to the west.  Nothing has formed on it as of 2:20 pm but this evening it is probable that something will get going, though nothing overly exciting. Infield for Derby Day will be wet.  A small line of scattered showers or t’showers is still possible for the afternoon on Derby Day.

Here’s the link again to our live radar.

WLKY LIVE SUPER DOPPLER RADAR

Severe Outlook For Oaks Day Through Derby Morning May 1, 2008

The threat for severe weather is pretty much what I told you in the previous two posts which is that timing issues bring limitations, hence, the greatest threat is west. But, feel free to scroll back and you can look at what I had to say OR…

Here is the link to the SPC to get their detailed stuff. 

Severe Prediction Center Link