The Greatest Maritime Disaster in US History: Sultana
April 27, 2010

Steamboat Sultana Looked Overloaded to Everyone but the Captain

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

On this Date in History:  When we think of maritime disaster, one immediately thinks of the RMS Titanic.  After all, there have been numerous movies and documentaries that detail and discuss the incident.  When the news of the Titanic hit the papers, any other news of the day was lost to the backpages and buried.  Hence, when Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly across the English Channel, she had the misfortune of doing so the day after the Titanic sunk.  She died not too long after and so most Americans think of Amelia Earhart as the first lady of flight.  Back in 1865, the news of the killing of John Wilkes Booth on April 26 dominated the media.  So, when the greatest disaster in maritime history took place, it too was left to the backpages and since, like Harriet Quimby, has been largely lost in the conscience of American history.  Timing, they say, is everythying.

 The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded. The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers. On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2200 to 2500 former prisoners of war returning home on this date in 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers.  The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current. Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers. The deaths of at least 1700 souls was brought about by the fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, the river current was strong and turbulent and extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors.  Unlike the news of the sinking of the RMS Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Andersonville 1864

What adds to the tragedy is that the vast majority of those on-board were Union prisoners of war who had been held in the infamous Andersonville Confederate prison and other prisons such as Cahaba (aka Cahawba).  These soldiers, many wounded and extremely frail from their time in horrid prison conditions, wanted to get home as quickly as possible.  But, it was not just the desire to get home that resulted in the overloading of the boat.  I mean, the Captain could have simply said that his boat was full and told the rest to wait for the next one.  But, the policy of the government in providing transportation was to pay 5$ for each soldier transported.  Keep in mind that most soldiers received about $15 a month while they were fighting so $5 was a pretty good chunk of change.  It was such a good deal for the steamboats that boat captains regularly paid US Army officers $1.15 for every man that officer directed to a particular steamboat.  Bottom line is that the more people a captain could stuff on his boat, the greater his profit.

Andersonville Survivor-Many on the Sultana Were Very Frail

Now, the soldiers were loaded on board in Vicksburg, MS for a trip to Cairo, IL and the Sultana was just one of many boats providing transportation.  It was the chance of a lifetime for steamboat operators and any delay would result in the potential loss of profits.  So, when one of the boilers on the Sultana sprang a leak while in port at Vicksburg,   the captain ordered a patch be put on the leak.  This was a shortcut and perhaps a fatal mistake.  Most researchers suggest that the bulge in the boiler should have been removed and replaced.  But that would have taken about 4 days so the captain went the 1-day patch route.   If he had waited 4 days, other steamboats would certainly have picked up the precious cargo and there would be no way to make up for the loss as this mass transport would happen just once.   Historians Stephen Ambrose and Douglas Brinkley say that the US Army officers knew of the maintanence issues with the Sultana but were eager to get the $1.15 per man kick-back and loaded the unknowing soldiers on board.

On April 24, 1865 at about 9 pm, the Sultana cast off from Vicksburg.  Captain J. Cass Mason, who is described by the US Naval Institute as “respected” but “reckless,  told an army officer that he’d carried that many men in the past and that the boat was sturdy.  Mason was well aware that his boat was extremely overcrowded but did not consider it overloaded.  He assured the officer that the Sultana was a good ship and the men were in very capable hands.   The officer told Captain Moss, “Take good care of them.  They are deserving of it.”    With that, the ship was on its way to Memphis where on April 26, 1865 it stopped to pick up a load of coal.  At around midnight, it cast off again to continue it’s journey.  The repaired boiler exploded about 2 AM on this date in 1865 and the fact that it was only 7 miles upstream illustrates just how slow it was moving.  Between the load it was carrying and the flow of the river against it, it was only able to muscle 3.5 miles per hour.  The strain on the patch was too much.  It exploded and that caused two others to immediately blow up.  Fire raced through the boat, the two smokestacks fell and crushed many on the deck.  Keep in mind that a steamboat boiled water to create the steam so scalding water no doubt affected numerous passengers, many of whom were unable to move due to their condition and were in great pain from their wounds.

The Sultana was but 260 feet long with a draft of just 7 feet.  The RMS Titanic was 882 feet long.  The RMS Titanic had 2223 passengers and 700 survived the sinking while 1517 perished.  The much smaller Sultana carried 2200 to 2500 and 1700 to 1800  were killed in the disaster leaving  500 to 800  to survive initially, but 200 more would die later from their wounds.  The survivors of the Titanic were fortunate in that it was a still night with calm seas, but it was extremely cold and the water was freezing.  The weather conditions of the Sultana disaster weren’t nearly as cold, but the river had a very swift and turbulent current due to spring run-off from melting snow and seasonal rains upriver.  Those who escaped the exlosion had to fight the deadly current.  The boat itself was not completely destroyed in the explosion and fire but the hulk of wreckage floated downstream before ultimately sinking at Memphis where today it rests covered in mud and covered by the Mississippi River.

SPC Severe Probability Thurs AM to Fri AM

12Z Tue GFS Very Bullish for Rain Midday Derby Day

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m not convinced that it’s going to be dry for the Kentucky Derby Forecast.  The longer range models still show disagreement in that the European model keeps big storms several hundred miles to the West on Friday while the GFS has  a cold front draped across St. Louis.   Either way, we will get a warming trend ahead of the system beginning on Wednesday.  Moisture levels will also be increasing as we head to the low to mid 80′s. 

12Z Tue NAM Hold Rain Just West for Oaks Day

I still have an eyebrow raised about the prospects of severe weather around here but I don’t see a kicker.  Further, the GFS vertical profile prog doesn’t really present menacing severe indecies.  However, the GFS does throw out a little more than a half inch of rain for Friday afternoon which may mean we have a questionable Oaks Day Forecast.  I tend to think that we will be okay for Oaks Day.  I”m not sure if the progression will be as slow as the Storms Prediction Center seems to be going with, which is the European solution.  My guess is that the timing of this will be something in between the GFS and European.  Any slow down in the GFS solution will result in a pretty good Oaks Day.  But, the GFS throws out 2 inches of rain in Louisville from 1AM Saturday morning until 7 pm Derby Day.  Even if it’s slower, we get rain and t’storms for the afternoon.  Every model right now throws out some amount of rain for Derby Day.   So, if you are picking a horse early, a good mudder will be a wise decision.  However, I think the wisest thing will be to wait to make your wager.  There is such disagreement with the data that its difficult to really pin down a firm forecast.  While all indications are that we will have low level convergent flow and an increasing jet stream intensity, which would support t’storms, the timing is debatable.  Should that scenario play out and some sort of kicker like a shortwave come through the flow, then we’re talking severe potential.  I have a fair amount of confidence that the rain and t’storm chances will be high for Derby Day.  I feel pretty good about the idea that Oaks Day will be warm, breezy and partly cloudy.  But, there is enough uncertainty that its probably not a good idea to hang your derby hat just yet.

1st Female Pilot to Cross English Channel Was Not Named Amelia
April 15, 2010

The real first lady of flight

The real first lady of flight

 

One Hot Pilot

 On This Date In History:

Perhaps the greatest and most courageous aviators no one has ever heard of got her flying license on August 1, 1911. Harriet Quimby was a single woman working in New York, which at the time was a pretty tough thing to do. Quimby worked for Leslie’s Illustrated Weekly. She was an independent and strong minded woman but wasn’t cast in the role of the Suffragettes. Instead she wrote articles that focused on neglect of children, corrupt politics and over hunting of certain species of animals.  However, she went on to do spectacular things that hardly anyone knows about.  Fortunately, as a writer, she did leave behind the tales of Harriet Quimby adventures in her own words.

Quimby also must have had a thing for machines because in 1906 while covering a race at the Vanderbilt Race Track, she went for a ride in a high speed automobile. So enthralled was she that she purchased her own car. I wonder if she was the only female car owner in 1906 New York. She covered a flying meet in 1910 and decided to take flying lessons.   Quimby met Matilde Moisant and her brother John at the Belmont Park International Aviation Tournament.  John and his brother Alfred ran a flying school so Harriet signed up.  She said ” There is no more risk in an airplane than a high-speed automobile and a lot more fun. Why shouldn’t we have some good American pilots.”   She became the first American woman to get a flying license and the second in the world.   Not only did Harriet get her pilot’s license, but so did her friend Matilde, who became the second American woman to officially become a pilot just 10 days after Harriet.  Matlide went on to establish herself as a female aviation pioneer as she and Harriet had a friendly competition.  Just a month after receiving her license, Moisant defeated both Quimby and French pilot Helene Dutrieu in an altitude competition when she took her 50 hp monoplane up to 1200 feet.  I’ve driven go-karts with a 50 hp engine.  That’s really pretty incredible and the ladies were quite brave. 

Harriet Quimby and Matilde Moisant

In fact, it took quite a bit of bravery to take to the air in the early days of aviation. Perhaps she learned her daring from John Moisant who dazzled the world when he crossed the English channel only  a month after he learned to fly!  Nevertheless, in spite of Harriet’s claim that it was no more dangerous than driving a car,  John Moisant was killed in a flying accident not long after she made his acquaintance.   Then, on April 14, 1912, Matlide landed her plane after a performance and it burst into flames due to a leaky fuel tank.  She was pulled from the wreckage with her clothing on fire, but she survived.   Nevertheless, Harriet was not deterred.   Just two days after her friend nearly burned to death,  on this date in 1912 Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly solo across the English Channel.   Her accomplishment went largely unnoticed because on April 16, 1912, the press was filled with details of the tragic Titanic sinking and her feat was left to the back pages and generally lost to history.  However, as  a journalist, Quimby decided to write the story of how Harriet Quimby flew solo across the English Channel.

A looker

A looker

A few months later, she turned her sights on the air speed record. Her plane was a two seat monoplane. When she flew this particular aircraft solo, she used sandbags in the passenger seat in order to maintain balance. For some reason, she took a man on a ride, presumably before she went for the record. The man won the opportunity in a coin flip with his son.   As the plane went on its journey, for unknown reason it pitched forward and the man was tossed to his death.   Harriet maintained control briefly before the plane pitched again and she was tossed to her death at age 37(NYTimes 1912 story/obit). Like the more famous, Amelia Earhart, I think that Harriet was quite the looker. Her flying outfit was a quite handsome purple silk jumpsuit. Earhart gained fame perhaps as much for her disappearance as for her flying feats. While Quimby has been largely forgotten, I have an idea that her death highlighted the need of seatbelts in planes. When you buckle up on your next flight, think of Harriet.

SPC slight risk for April 16 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  After a week of splendid weather, the big day is here.  Yes, it’s my birthday but to highlight it’s importance, I am getting a colonoscopy! That is a sure sign that age is creeping up and that I don’t count birthdays anymore.  Snow White already had my birthday party last week at Burger King.  I think that she’s getting me back for taking her to Golden Corral for Valentine’s Day.  Guys..don’t make fun of Valentine’s Day.  It will go on the “do not forget” list.  But, this evening, it will be interesting to see how my emcee appearance goes tonight for the Justice Racing Stables as they kick off the Derby season.   Hopefully, no one will strike a match.  And I hope that John Nolley has planned for an indoor event because the cold front will be coming through and I suspect it will be less exciting than my visit to the doctor, though the Storm Prediction Center is rattling our cage a bit.

SPC risk for gusty winds biggest threat

That 5% risk for severe weather that they had yesterday they upped to be a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.  They only claim a less than 2% risk for twisters and hail but are watchful for high winds.  As the front comes down, they are noting the amount of sunshine ahead of the boundary and that may increase the lapse rates sufficiently to team with a low level jet of about 50 kts and increasing dew points to produce a line of thunder storms.  We are on the extreme western tip of the risk area but nothing really jumps out at me.  The CAPE forecast is only 500 J/KG and, while  that is sufficient to produce some boomers, I’m not too impressed.  So, I wouldn’t head to the basement just yet.  Nevertheless, it’s out there so keep in mind, if we do get some storms this evening with the front, there may be some winds to contend with in individual storms.  Otherwise, Thunder Over Louisville weekend is upon us and the weather will be pretty good, though cooler than we’ve recently seen.  Highs in the low to mid 60′s.  Fireworks temperatures will be falling through the 50′s and the wind will be out of the North, meaning that if you are on the Louisville side of the river, be prepared for some smoke.

1st Woman Pilot was pretty hot; Lone Star State Stories: Charles Whitman & 6 Flags over Texas
August 1, 2009

 

The real first lady of flight

The real first lady of flight

One Hot Pilot

One Hot Pilot

On This Date In History:

Perhaps the greatest and most courageous aviators no one has ever heard of got her flying license on this date in 1911. Harriet Quimby was a single woman working in New York, which at the time was a pretty tough thing to do. Quimby worked for Leslie’s Illustrated Weekly. She was an independent and strong minded woman but wasn’t cast in the role of the Suffragettes. Instead she wrote articles that focused on neglect of children, corrupt politics and over hunting of certain species of animals.

Quimby also must have had a thing for machines because in 1906 while covering a race at the Vanderbilt Race Track, she went for a ride in a high speed automobile. So enthralled was she that she purchased her own car. I wonder if she was the only female car owner in 1906 New York. She covered a flying meet in 1910 and decided to take flying lessons. She said ” There is no more risk in an airplane than a high-speed automobile and a lot more fun. Why shouldn’t we have some good American pilots. She became the first American woman to get a flying license and the second in the world. On April 16, 1912 she became the first woman to fly solo across the English Channel. So why haven’t we heard of her? On that date, the press was filled with details of the tragic Titanic sinking and her feat was left to the back pages and generally lost to history.

A looker

A looker

A few months later, she turned her sights on the air speed record. Her plane was a two seat monoplane. When she flew is solo, she used sandbags in the passenger seat in order to maintain balance. For some reason, she took a man on a ride, presumably before she went for the record. The man won the opportunity in a coin flip with his son. As the plane went on its journey, for unknown reason it pitched forward and the man was tossed to his death. Harriet maintained control briefly before the plane pitched again and she was tossed to her death at age 37(NYTimes 1912 story/obit). Like the more famous, Amelia Earhart, Harriet was quite the looker. Her flying outfit was a quite handsome purple silk jumpsuit. Earhart gained fame perhaps as much for her disappearance as for her flying feats. While Quimby has been largely forgotten, I have an idea that her death highlighted the need of seatbelts in planes. When you buckle up on your next flight, think of Harriet.

Whitman Finally Was Stopped

Whitman Finally Was Stopped

Other things  happened on this date. In 1966, Charles Whitman took to the top of the University of Texas main building tower and shot a bunch of people. WWI began in 1914. The Sonny and Cher Show Debuted in 1971. In 1953, “Shane, Come Back!” entered the American lexicon as Shane was released. It is said that many actors had to stand in small ditches so Alan Ladd didn’t look so short. I think it was the debut of a young Jack Palance. And in 1943, Lt. John F. Kennedy had his PT-109 torpedoed. Kennedy was credited with helping to save the lives of his crew and his heroism helped launch his political career. Later Cliff Robertson portrayed Kennedy in PT-109 and made a coconut famous. My favorite guy though was Lenny.

Angus: The Man with the Plan

Angus: The Man with the Plan

But the most interesting thing to me today(aside from Harriet) was that Six Flags Over Texas opened on this date in 1961. It was the first of the Six Flags parks and had the first log rides and mine train rides. It was also the first park to feature a single admission price, which was $2.75 for adults and $2.25 for kids. Previously all parks required payment for each ride. What is more remarkable though is that the guy who came up with the idea, Angus Wynne, Jr. only thought of it as a short term investment. He was an oilman and real estate developer who had other plans for the 212 acre site in Arlington, Texas. He was planning on just using the park to get the land to produce some revenue until he could develop an industrial park. He put up $3.5 million of the $10 million required to start up Six Flags Over Texas. His plans changed when in 18 months he had gotten his money back. Within 10 years, over 17 million people had visited his plan for a quick buck and became the most profitable private tourist attraction in Texas. Seems Ol’ Angus struck oil without even drilling one well.

SPC Convective Outlook 8am Sat to 8am Sun

SPC Convective Outlook 8am Sat to 8am Sun

Sunday 8AM

Sunday 8AM

Weather Bottom Line:  There is another cold front approaching in what continues to be a fairly active pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the nation for this time of year.  The mean longwave trof extends across the northern half of the country from the Rockies eastward.  The base of the trof will be down in Arkansas by Saturday afternoon and as the front moves across the central plains and extends down into the southern plains, activity will begin to erupt.  The best chance for severe weather will be at the base of the trof, though some strong storms may be found all along the front as it makes its way eastward during the heat of the day into the evening. 

Tornado probability Sat

Tornado probability Sat

Now, the front doesn’t get here until about 8am on Sunday and will be slow to move through.  The severe indices from the early Saturday model runs are rather pedestrian and, given the time of day, t’storms will be relatively benign.  Several of the models indicate that a piece of the energy, in the form of a dying shortwave, will break off from the base of the trof and move through the Ohio Valley, riding along the front.  I suspect that what we will see will be similar to our last few events which is for rain chances to increase late Saturday night and carry into the first part of Sunday.  I haven’t checked but I can’t imagine that the precipitable water will be as excessive as last Thursday.  So, I doubt if we will get the 2-4 inch rains like we had then.  But, its a pretty fair bet for widespread rain with a few t’storms late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  Won’t be surprised to see some renegade afternoon t’storms pop up in advance of the front this afternoon.

Severe Wind Probability Sat

Severe Wind Probability Sat

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
  
   VALID 011200Z – 021200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA/ARKLATEX
   REGIONS TO N-CENTRAL/NW TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST
   STATES AND TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO OZARKS.  STG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH — INITIALLY OVER WRN MN…SERN SD AND NEB…IS FCST TO PIVOT
   NEWD INTO EVOLVING CLOSE 500 MB LOW OVER NWRN ONT.  AS THIS
   OCCURS…RELATED SFC COLD FRONT — NOW ANALYZED FROM NRN MN TO SERN
   NEB TO ERN CO — IS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER MI…ERN MO…S-CENTRAL
   OK AND TX PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS BY 2/00Z.  BY 2/12Z…FRONT SHOULD
   EXTEND NEAR LINE FROM TOL-SDF-TXK…THROUGH WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
   OVER N-CENTRAL TX…THEN WEAK AND QUASISTATIONARY WSWWD ACROSS TX
   PERMIAN BASIN/SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS.
   
 

Severe Hail Probability Sat

Severe Hail Probability Sat

  MEANWHILE…BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED INVOF 36N130W
   SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY/ERRATICALLY THROUGH PERIOD…BEING ISOLATED FROM
   PREVAILING FLOW FIELDS FARTHER N AND W…BUT WITH PROBABLE NET EWD
   DRIFT.  SMALLER/WEAKER MID-UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OVER BC COAST.  THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE
   TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION…REACHING
   NRN ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION — WITH TWO
   VORTICITY LOBES EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY — SHOULD PIVOT
   SEWD ACROSS OK/AR DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IN SUPPORT OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.
  
   …MS DELTA/ARKLATEX REGIONS TO N-CENTRAL/NW TX…
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG OR MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON…WITH
   POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR SVR GUSTS AND HAIL.  PRECONVECTIVE/WARM-SECTOR
   AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S
   F…AND WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING
   APPRECIABLY…STEEP ENOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
   MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE SRN
   FRINGE OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS…WHICH WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR.
   LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MOST OF SFC-800
   MB LAYER…KEEPING HODOGRAPHS SMALL.  HOWEVER…SUFFICIENT UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW SHOULD COVER THIS AREA TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   POTENTIAL INVOF 50-75 KT 250 MB SPEED MAX…GIVEN EXPECTED LARGE
   AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.  ANY SUPERCELL MODES SHOULD
   BE SHORT-LIVED AND DEPENDENT ON LOCALIZED/BOUNDARY PROCESSES. 
  
   …LOWER MI TO OZARKS…
   BAND OF STG-SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF FRONTAL ZONE
   AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS…MOST PROBABLY
   DURING 1/21Z-2/02Z TIME FRAME WHEN MINIMIZED MLCINH IS EXPECTED.
   SWLY PREFRONTAL WINDS ARE FCST IN BOUNDARY LAYER…LIMITING BOTH
   CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER…DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FROM IL NEWD…WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   HEATING EACH SHOULD SHOW GENERAL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT.  LIMITING
   FACTORS WILL INCLUDE LACK OF BETTER SHEAR/INSTABILITY
   JUXTAPOSITION…AND MRGL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
  
   …NE GA TO CENTRAL/ERN VA…
   ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION
   DURING PRIOR DAY…RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ABSENCE OF
   ANY PROGRESSIVE FRONTS OR ADVERSE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES.  STG DIURNAL
   HEATING AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND WEAK CINH BY
   AFTERNOON…OFFSETTING ONLY ABOUT 6 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
   YIELD MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG.  LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR
   DAY…AS WELL AS WEAK TROUGH E OF MOUNTAINS…MAY PROVIDE PRIMARY
   FOCI…ALTHOUGH SOME TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR
   AS WELL.  THIS AREA WILL BE BENEATH SERN RIM OF FAVORABLE MID-UPPER
   FLOW…BUT ALSO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS.  MULTICELL MODES SHOULD
   PREDOMINATE…WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED.
   MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR…BUT IS TOO DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO SPECIFY A
   15-PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ATTM.
  
   …INTERIOR PAC NW…
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
   ORE AND FAR NRN CA DURING AFTERNOON…UNDER NERN FRINGE OF ENHANCED
   BELT OF SELY MID-UPPER WINDS CAUSED BY OFFSHORE CYCLONE.  FAVORABLE
   LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED…WITH SFC DEW POINTS 50S F IN
   LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MODIFIED ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WELL-MIXED
   SUBCLOUD LAYERS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING OVER LOWER
   ELEVATIONS…BENEATH MLCAPE LOCALLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG.  WEAK
   LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT SHEAR…BUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2009

Name The First Lady of Flight
August 1, 2008

Can you name this woman? She was a pioneer if aviation.

Can you name this gator? He had his last supper.

A little disturbance is set to drop down through the flow on Friday triggering strong storms to our west. Below you see the SPC forecast from Thursday for Friday. The idea is that the storms weaken as they approach our area. Scattered storms are possible late Friday. A weak boundary comes through and keeps the temperatures in the low 90′s for a couple of days, delaying the ridge a bit but we still have mid to upper 90′s by the first part of next week. Rain chances go off the board for the weekend into early next week. Here is the portion of the SPC discussion related to the Ohio Valley.

…MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY… INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL NEGATE STRATUS/FOG FORMATION FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DAY TIME HEATING…COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND RIPE FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND 850MB MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED DYNAMIC SUPPORT AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE EVENING…30-40KT OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION.

On This Date In History: Perhaps the greatest and most courageous aviators no one has ever heard of got her flying license on Aug 1, 1911. Harriet Quimby was a single woman working in New York, which at the time was a pretty tough thing to do. Quimby worked for Leslie’s Illustrated Weekly. She was an independent and strong minded woman but wasn’t cast in the role of the Suffragettes. Instead she wrote articles that focused on neglect of children, corrupt politics and over hunting of certain species of animals.

Quimby also must have had a thing for machines because in 1906 while covering a race at the Vanderbilt Race Track, she went for a ride in a high speed automobile. So enthralled was she that she purchased her own car. I wonder if she was the only female car owner in 1906 New York. She covered a flying meet in 1910 and decided to take flying lessons. She said ” There is no more risk in an airplane than a high-speed automobile and a lot more fun. Why shouldn’t we have some good American pilots. She became the first American woman to get a flying license and the second in the world. On April 16, 1912 she became the first woman to fly solo across the English Channel. So why haven’t we heard of her? On that date, the press was filled with details of the tragic Titanic sinking and her feat was left to the back pages and generally lost to history.

A few months later, she turned her sights on the air speed record. Her plane was a two seat monoplane. When she flew is solo, she used sandbags in the passenger seat in order to maintain balance. For some reason, she took a man on a ride, presumably before she went for the record. The man won the opportunity in a coin flip with his son. As the plane went on its journey, for unknown reason it pitched forward and the man was tossed to his death. Harriet maintained control briefly before the plane pitched again and she was tossed to her death at age 37(NYTimes 1912 story/obit). Like the more famous, Amelia Earhart, Harriet was quite the looker. Her flying outfit was a quite handsome purple silk jumpsuit. Earhart gained fame perhaps as much for her disappearance as for her flying feats. While Quimby has been largely forgotten, I have an idea that her death highlighted the need of seatbelts in planes. When you buckle up on your next flight, think of Harriet.

Here is a biography of Harriet Quimby.

Now..what about the gator. His name was Big Joe and he lived in the swampy waters around Lake Pontchartrain near New Orleans. A young boy was swimming when the 11 foot gator tore his arm off. Rescuers took him to safety and tracked down Big Joe. Amazingly, after they shot the big guy, they fetched the boys arm from his belly and doctors reattached it over 3 hours later. Miracles happen every day…let’s hope this one is complete with the boy regaining use of his arm. Doctors are not optimistic in this story.

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