Hurricane Gustav…Which Way Will It Go? And What About Tropical Storm Hanna? August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 0829 5 pm

I don’t have a lot to add to what I have said in the past. I still think that Hurricane Gustav has a good shot at perhaps being stronger than anticipated and doing so pretty quickly.

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0829 18Z

Its got a great looking outflow, has very warm water to work with and the western tip of Cuba won’t prove too disruptive. The National Hurricane Center forecast track is to the right of the general consensus of the modeling as indicated by the 18Z Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model. My suspicion of a stronger storm than anticipated is not supported by the Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model graph. So, I’m a bit on a limb. It is unusual for the NHC to wander too far from the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 18Z

consensus track. But, the fact that they have specifically said that and also outlined the other variables involved in the other forecast tracks which go farther west, then that indicates some uncertainty and, as they point out, this track should not be taken as Gospel and further review will be needed. The storm surge from this guy may be problematic depending on where it actually makes landfall and there are a number of indications that this guy gets stuck inland and could pose a major flooding threat well after landfall.

Don’t forget about Hanna. For days I had been pooh-poohing the storm as it developed. It appears that I was too quick because it didn’t move. Because it was so pokey, the environment has changed. Numerous models, as seen on the Hanna Spaghetti Model, indicate that this guy goes northwest and then gets forced down by ridging to the southwest. It is not out of the question that this storm, as indicated by the Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Model graph, becomes a formidable hurricane, moves across Florida and into the Gulf. Developing conditions make this scenario a very distinct possibility. So, we may be looking at two weeks of Hurricane action and all interests from Cape Fear to Corpus Christi need to keep up with tropical developments for the foreseeable future. Here is the Gustav Discussion followed by the Hanna Discussion and Hanna tracks and spaghetti models:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM…BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. NEVERTHELESS…THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM…AND TO SOME DEPTH BENEATH THE SURFACE…SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE…AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA. PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM’S STRENGTH…AND ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF…WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF…AND DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT 96 HOURS…GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE…NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10…AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS…HOWEVER…IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS…AND IN HOW STRONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF GUSTAV…SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET…FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH…AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS…AND REPRESENTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT IS ONCE AGAIN IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.2N 79.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 90 KT…OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 36HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W 110 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 85 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W 55 KT…INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB

_________________________________-

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0829 5 PM

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 THE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS RANGE…IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0829 18Z

UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN…ALLOWING HANNA TO

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 18Z

GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS…THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV. DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST…THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT WEAKENING. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA’S INTENSITY. HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9. IN GENERAL…THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS…BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 63.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 60 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Gustav Dials Down While Undertaker Dials Up! August 27, 2008

for a more recent update on Gustav, Click Here

Louisville Forecast: What’s left of Fay moved a bit farther east than anticipated so instead of being on the fringe of the rainfall we get nothing and we’ll have to like it because we don’t have a choice. Dry air will continue to move in behind Fay as it moves northeast. A cold front will have nothing but dry air to work with so rain will be limited, followed by warm and relatively dry weather throughout the Labor Day weekend.

Tues Aug 26 11pm NHC Gustav Forecast Track

Hurricane Gustav keeps chugging along but for a little while will be officially known as Tropical Storm Gustav. It didn’t let the Haitian peninsula mess it up too

Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0827 00Z

much though. Winds decreased from 90 to 75 mph now 70 mph. The pressure moved up a shade to 992 mb and now to 994mb. It’s eye moved in just a bit and collapsed somewhat but its central circulation is easing offshore and the forecast calls for it to perhaps run into a small piece of Eastern Cuba before moving just south of the Cuban coast between Fidel’s fairyland and Jamaica. Some strengthening is forecast, provided the circulation remains offshore. Most of the tracks on the

Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 00Z

Gustav spaghetti model do exactly that as does the official track. Once the storm clears the western tip of Cuba, it moves into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico where intensification is likely. There is a wide berth of modeling opinion regarding the extent of the increase in strength and no model can accurately predict what level Gustav will reach, maintain or be at landfall. But, over the next 4 or 5 days only land interaction and a weak shear environment will inhibit development. The official forecast now has a hurricane just short of Cat 4 status in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week with a few models still pushing for something close to cat 5. 14 out of 20 models take it to cat 2 or higher. Still looks like a good shot at at big bopper to me.

On This Date In History: Almon Brown Strowger was a late 19th Century undertaker in Kansas City. For some reason, his business was in decline. People were still dying but somehow he missed out on much of the action. Then one day, a good friend passed away. Either through sloppy work or skulduggery, the operator of the local phone exchange failed to notify him and his competitor got the work. Convinced that the operator was in cahoots with the guy across the street, Strowger set out to invent an automatic exchange so that people could contact him directly and avoid operators on the take. Up until the late 19th Century, if one wanted to call someone, they had to crank up the phone for power to talk to an operator. The caller would tell the operator to whom they wished to speak and the operator connected the call. Strowger eliminated that. After filing several patents, Strowger first introduced his Automatic Telephone Exchange in 1892 in La Porte, Indiana. By then he was out of the mortuary business and declared that the “telephone girl would have to go, but she would only be following in the footsteps of the messenger boy whose services were dispensed with by the invention of the telephone.” Strowger wasn’t finished.

Ernestine the Obnoxious Operator

In 1896, the Bell System, which until 1894 had a monopoly on all phone systems, came out with a battery at the central exchange that eliminated the need for at-home hand cranking. Around the same time, on this date in 1896, Strowger came out with the first rotary dial phone that was installed in the Milwaukee city hall. It didn’t have holes but instead had what amounted to the sprockets of a half exposed gear. More like a rotary disk. The photo to the above left is the 1897 version. Strowger went on to be a big competitor of the Bell System, until his patents expired in 1914. From that point, his company and Strowger disappeared from history. I suppose he took the money and ran…or rather died. Strowger passed away in 1902. No word on

Almon Brown Stowger

whether his former competitor in Kansas City got his final bit of business. But, without a competitor, the Bell System didn’t come out with a rotary phone until 1919 and it had the holes with the disc that went all the way around the dial.

Two things. First off, competition inspires invention…Bell had no more competition after Strowger’s death and so dragged its feet on developing a better phone. Second thing…don’t ever make the undertaker mad. His revenge can kill you.