Hurricane Gustav…Which Way Will It Go? And What About Tropical Storm Hanna? August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 0829 5 pm

I don’t have a lot to add to what I have said in the past. I still think that Hurricane Gustav has a good shot at perhaps being stronger than anticipated and doing so pretty quickly.

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0829 18Z

Its got a great looking outflow, has very warm water to work with and the western tip of Cuba won’t prove too disruptive. The National Hurricane Center forecast track is to the right of the general consensus of the modeling as indicated by the 18Z Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model. My suspicion of a stronger storm than anticipated is not supported by the Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model graph. So, I’m a bit on a limb. It is unusual for the NHC to wander too far from the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 18Z

consensus track. But, the fact that they have specifically said that and also outlined the other variables involved in the other forecast tracks which go farther west, then that indicates some uncertainty and, as they point out, this track should not be taken as Gospel and further review will be needed. The storm surge from this guy may be problematic depending on where it actually makes landfall and there are a number of indications that this guy gets stuck inland and could pose a major flooding threat well after landfall.

Don’t forget about Hanna. For days I had been pooh-poohing the storm as it developed. It appears that I was too quick because it didn’t move. Because it was so pokey, the environment has changed. Numerous models, as seen on the Hanna Spaghetti Model, indicate that this guy goes northwest and then gets forced down by ridging to the southwest. It is not out of the question that this storm, as indicated by the Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Model graph, becomes a formidable hurricane, moves across Florida and into the Gulf. Developing conditions make this scenario a very distinct possibility. So, we may be looking at two weeks of Hurricane action and all interests from Cape Fear to Corpus Christi need to keep up with tropical developments for the foreseeable future. Here is the Gustav Discussion followed by the Hanna Discussion and Hanna tracks and spaghetti models:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM…BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. NEVERTHELESS…THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM…AND TO SOME DEPTH BENEATH THE SURFACE…SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE…AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA. PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM’S STRENGTH…AND ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF…WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF…AND DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT 96 HOURS…GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE…NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10…AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS…HOWEVER…IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS…AND IN HOW STRONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF GUSTAV…SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET…FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH…AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS…AND REPRESENTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT IS ONCE AGAIN IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.2N 79.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 90 KT…OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 36HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W 110 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 85 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W 55 KT…INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB

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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0829 5 PM

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 THE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS RANGE…IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0829 18Z

UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN…ALLOWING HANNA TO

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 18Z

GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS…THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV. DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST…THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT WEAKENING. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA’S INTENSITY. HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9. IN GENERAL…THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS…BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 63.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 60 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Gustav Getting More Robust, Now Has a Mate; Fill Up Your Gas Tanks! August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast Track 0828 11AM

Tropical Storm Gustav, as expected, is getting its act together and is looking much much better on the satellite. Once it decided to end its Haitian vacation and got out of the mountains of Haiti and back over the friendly confines of the ocean, its numbers are going up while the pressure is going down. Actually, it works in reverse. The pressure is down to 983mb and the winds are up to 70 mph. Anyway, the vector shift overnight to a more southerly component has made it likely that it will encounter Jamaica as it starts to swing more westerly. That will further delay intensification but, after that, it will have little problem getting going good. Now, because it dawdled near Haiti, it has provided more time for a more hostile environment to mess it up a little

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0828 12Z

in the Gulf. In response to a trof coming into the Gulf in a few days, the ridge steering the storm should break down a bit causing the storm to turn to the northwest. Should that trof actually show up as forecast, then it would increase the likelihood of southwesterly shear aloft to mess with

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 12Z

its hat…its upper anticyclone…its upper support. The upper support is what is necessary for a tropical cyclone of any substance. While most of the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph do make this a cat 2 or Cat 3 storm, a few still want to ignore the shearing and take it stronger. But, the good news is that, should this shearing, it may limit the storm from getting too strong. However, I do wonder if this guy isn’t just going to explode once it enters the Gulf prior to it getting into a shearing environment. The sea surface temperatures are very warm, it may run across a warm eddy and the environment will be great for a while. The bad news is that, right now, the official forecast has shifted a bit west of New Orleans over the past 12 hours, but not far enough away to prevent the sunken city to be susceptible to a bad storm surge. As seen in the discussion below, there is talk of a

Sea-Surface Temperatures 0828

ridge building ahead of the storm that would slow it down. The boys at the NHC feel that this feature will continue to move and serve to merely slow the progress north and as it goes on its merry way, Gustav will be allowed to enter the United States. Someone should alert the border patrol as I doubt if Gustav is a documented worker. There continues to be many variables like if or when the shearing takes place and how strong it will be as well as when the steering ridge breaks down. Now there is a further concern as to if, in fact, the blocking ridge does materialize and if it does in fact keep moving. The discussion mentions some models that keep that ridge in place and consequently the storm starts to go west prior to the forecast and I’ve seen several of those models. For this reason, if you are anywhere from Pensacola to Corpus Christi, i’d still keep my ears on. There are several days left in Gustav’s life and typically, one of the variables do not behave as expected.

Gustav has a wife now. It’s Tropical Storm Hanna. I’ve seen this feature consistently on the models we use in forecasting locally. A tropical storm or hurricane has been showing up off the Southeast Coast of the United States. The computers thinking all along has

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0828 12Z

been for oit to get close and then move out to sea and that’s why I haven’t really mentioned it much….I believe this is Invest 95L. Anyway, the official forecast track at this time is being cautious as there are some models that want to stop Hanna’s progress and have it get cut off from steering currents. I suspect that even if it does that, it would eventually get

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0828 12Z

caught up in a frontal boundary moving off the US coast. The concern here would be that if the storm is far enough south, it stays below the trof of the front and does not get caught up in a southwesterly flow out to sea so its worth monitoring.

Oh…one other thing….I think I told you people to fill up your gas tanks because oil prices would go up because of Gustav. The oil traders have the same access to modeling data and they know that there is a possibility of a storm going into the region of US offshore oil production, not to mention the huge oil refining capacity around Houston and numerous refineries from the SE Texas coast to New Orleans. So any hint of a hurricane sniffing around will cause the price of oil to be bid higher. This really started on Monday but here’s today’s story. Better Fill’er Up!

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MY SENSE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…PERHAPS 265/4. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH COAST…BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA…ALL MODELS FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME…BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV’S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF…BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL TRACK. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA…AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE…BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION…ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA…GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…FAVORING INTENSIFICATION. ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHERE WATERS WILL BE WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.9N 76.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT…NEAR JAMAICA 24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF LA $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Say Hello to Tropical Storm Gustav! August 25, 2008

To track the remnant of Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in  the entire nation.

Tropical Storm Gustav 11AM Track 0825

As I had mentioned previously, I suspected that we would be seeing the birth of Gustav this week and indeed has happened.  The satellite imagery of Invest 94L is very impressive.  The National Hurricane Center has went ahead and made it a depression prior to the arrival of the Hurricane Hunter which is, by the way, officially the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserves based in Biloxi, MS.  I’m not sure what the procedures are of when and if they send out the high altitude Gulfstream.  Anyway,  I looked at some limited buoy data yesterday and thought one might be able to make an argument for some surface circulation then, though I had no clue as to how broad it was. I know the central pressure yesterday was 1008mb from maritime advisories.  Anyway, just 4 hours after they made it a depression, the flyboys got into the storm and they quickly upgraded TD7 to Tropical Storm Gustav with winds of 60 mph and hoisted hurricane warnings for the Domincan Republic and Haiti. The recon flight reported a closed eyewall with a diameter of 30 nm.  This guy is developing rapidly and now you know why I’ve been keeping you to date on this and marginalizing invest 95L.

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0825 12Z

The official track takes it up across Cuba and then along the northern coast

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph

 of Cuba toward Key West.  However, from the spaghetti models, it appears this is the mean track of the models and so it will remain to be seen how this develops and where it goes.  A large number of the models, as indicated by the Spaghetti Intensity graph, increases the storm in strength rather rapidly to hurricane level.  I would think that the entire coast from Jacksonville, FL to the Texas coast will want to watch this guy.  My view is echoed by the last line of the discussion which says HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH…PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
 It seems to be in a good spot for development and it is certainly climatologically in a favored region and time of year.  Here is the special discussion followed by the initial discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 KT…AND TO CHANGE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
FOR HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED…HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1800Z 15.8N  70.5W    50 KT
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    60 KT
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    65 KT
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    70 KT
72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT
96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED…
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THEREFORE WE ARE
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.  AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY…BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS…
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT.  INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER…THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE.  OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  CURIOUSLY…THE GFS HAS FAILED
TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE.  THERE IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.  ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND THIS IS
DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA…AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL.  OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH…PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THIS FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1500Z 15.5N  70.1W    30 KT
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    40 KT
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    50 KT
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    50 KT
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    55 KT
72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT
96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS