The Severe Prediction Center(SPC) outlook for Thursday is above.
The SPC Severe Outlook for today is above.
This was a report from last night at Eagle Pass, TX on the Rio Grande River about 40 miles SW of Uvalde and 125 miles SW of San Antonio
*** 6 FATAL, 40 INJ *** FOX NEWS IS REPORTING 6 PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND MORE THAN 40 INJURED. AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WAS DESTROYED AND A NUMBER OF MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED.
Got a question regarding high risk stuff….if you folks were paying attention yesterday, then you know that the SPC suddenly put out a High Risk region in Texas. Typically, they only put those out on the day of the expected event. Also, its usually a pretty good bet you will get a lot of substanial activity. In that area, we had a strong subtropical jet coming out of Mexico and it interacted with the energy coming out of the rockies….the thing I was talking about 2 or 3 days ago. In this case, there were only 23 tornado reports and all but two were not in the high risk area. The above report from Eagle Pass though was…though its barely in the US…sportsman know about it.
Anyway…the energy coming out of the rockies will open up…or weaken. And we will also have a lot of clouds, limiting sunshine. I just looked at a whole mess of mathematical equations that give indications of what might happen. Its kinda intersting because they are different equations that will be based on different computer models….so you end up with hypothesized data based on hypothesized data and done so several different ways. Doesn’t sound real reliable.But, if you look at the general trend and then look at what is really going on, you can get a pretty good feel for the situation. In this case, there is no real indication of large scale rotation of storms. In fact, the best indication of that was Wednesday morning. Very few of the indices over the next 48 hours are really extraordinary and just about all of them are what I would call marginal. So…still….this is not a slam dunk by any stretch. I don’t think that the SPC would put us in a high risk area and I find it unlikely we would be in a moderate risk. There’s just not enough there.
Now, the best chance for strong storms I think would be on Thursday afternoon. We will have a risk Wednesday afternoon and night. Then perhaps early Thursday when another piece of energy breaks off and moves through. Then the main guy comes through Thursday afternoon, though by that time it would have tossed off a lot of its energy, it still will be pretty decent and there will still be a bit of jetstream energy aloft. The key, methinks, will be if in between the first action Thursday and the second, we get any sunshine. Its possible and that is why I think the best chance will be late Thursday…a stronger guy with the potential of better afternoon heating. Its also possible, perhaps even likely, that sunshine breaks out in west KY, the storms fire up and then move into our area.
Still think the best risk will be for hail and high winds. But, the boys at the SPC have been mentioning the potential for bow echoes or supercells…though I suspect the former is the greater of the two possibilities. Nontheless, studies brought to my attention by Angie at our own NWS office, suggest that a whole lot more tornadoes derive from bow echoes than previously thought. But, look, I’ve worked with people and seen people who try to scare everyone with every event. We don’t do that and I certainly don’t subscribe to that. Truth is, no one knows exactly, precisely what will definitely happen. For the most part last night, the SPC high risk area did not verify. Does that mean it was wrong? No….it just means that mother nature can’t read a map. So, for this event, it is possible we could get strong to severe storms over the next couple of days…we”ll have three best chances. Its not necessarily probable, however. And if we do get strong storms, the biggest risk will be from hail and strong winds. It will be possible, but not probable for tornadic activity.
We will keep you informed and watch it for you. Its something to watch but not enough to sell your house and move to Greenland.
On This Date in History In 1781, General Cornwallis got whipped by the Continental Army at Guilford Courthouse, NC. I think this led to Mel Gibson making a movie with enough correct history to make people think it was historical. I know a bunch of historians who were not amused. I don’t think anyone was amused on this date in 1988 when the rights to the sequel of Gone With the Wind were acquired. I’m guessing it came from the estate of Margaret Mitchell who no doubt was spinning in her grave from the result. Don’t remember the movie? That’s okay, I don’t think anyone else did either. Timothy Dalton, the former James Bond, was Rhett Butler. Hmmm….Clark Gable or Timothy Dalton..you take your pick.