The Great Seal of the United States Came About Through Great Effort June 20, 2010

The Great Seal of the United States of America

Americans Love to Create Committees

On This Date in History:   When an American politician isn’t sure what to do or does not want to make a decision, he tends to set up a committee.  That way, if its a good idea, he can take credit and if it doesn’t work out so well, then he can just say he was following the committee’s recommendation.   This tradition goes back to the beginning as the founders were confounded as to what kind of symbol they wanted for their new nation.   Over a period of 6 years, three separate committees studied the situation in an effort to come up with an acceptable national coat of arms that was needed for the authentification of official documents.    So, who would be the members of such a committee.  Benjamin Franklin, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson had done pretty well with a Declaration of Independence so they were given the first shot.

Jefferson's Proposal For the Great Seal Does Not Fit the Paradigm Set That He Wanted No Religion Associated With the Nation

The three creators of the declaration were appointed to the new mission just hours after the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence.  I suppose the work of a founding father is never done.  They had turned to scholarly writings of the past for inspiration and guidance for the declaration and for a symbol, they looked to the bible and classical mythology from which to take their cues.   Now, Jefferson is often called a “Deist” or non-Christian by some modern historians so it is interesting that he proposed an image of the Israelites passage through the wilderness as they were led by a Divine cloud and pillar of fire.  Adams favored Hercules choosing between a path of virtue or self-indulgence.  For his part, Franklin proposed the likeness of Moses commanding the Red Sea to swallow up pharoah.  They were stuck.

Tough To See: Du Simitière's sketch of his rejected proposal for the Great Seal

So, they called on the help of a consultant.  A Philadelphia artist who hailed from Switzerland, Pierre Eugene Du Simitiere, told them that the greatest virtue of the United States was that it was a new nation forged together by many people of differing backgrounds.  So, he suggested a giant shield that featured the emblems of the 6 most common European nations of most Americans origin.  Around that shield was 13 smaller ones to represent the 13 states, linked by a gold chain.  Holding up the shield were the goddesses of Justice and Liberty.  Above all of that was the Eye of Providence and on the bottom was the motto, E Pluribus Unum, which means “Out of Many, One.”  The committe chose Franklin’s Moses idea for the back and Du Simitiere’s idea for the front.  But, the Continental Congress must not have thought that these guys would come up with something so quickly because they were preoccupied with the Revolutionary War and tabled the issue.   A few years later, in 1780, a second committee was formed and they chose a front side of a shield with 13 stripes that was held up by a soldier and a woman holding an olive branch.  The crest featured a constellation of 13 stars.  On the back was an image of the Goddess of Liberty.  Apparently no one liked that one either because it wasn’t tabled; it was rejected out of hand.

Perhaps Charles Thomson is Ultimately Responsible For the Final Design of the Great Seal. This Engraving of Thomson Was Created by None Other than Pierre Eugene Du Simitiere

In 1782, they tried again.  This time they turned to William Barton who was an authority on heraldry.  He came up with a front side of a European eagle within a crest and for the reverse side, he proposed an incomplete 13-stepped pyramid.   By this time, the Continental Congress had all sorts of designs and so they just shoved them all over to the Secretary of Congress, Charles Thomson.  Thomson took a little bit of this and a little bit of that from each idea to synthesize them into a single entity.  He kept E Pluribus Unum from the first committee, the olive branch and shield from the second committee and the third proposal of an eagle and a pyramid.  But, he decided to substitute a rising American Bald Eagle for the European Heraldic Eagle.  He made the grand bird of America the centerpiece with a constellation of 13 stars above its head to support the motto E Pluribus Unum.  He put the shield with the stripes on its chest with the stripes on the shield arranged vertically and he raised the eagle’s wings.  He placed the olive branch in one of its talons and in the other he had the bird clutching 13 arrows.  I guess he wanted to add his own personal touch.  On the reverse side, the unfinished pyramid found a home, topped by the Eye of Providence with the  latin phrase Novus Ordo Seclorum below and the latin Annuit Coeptis above.  On this date in 1782, the Continental Congress instantly approved the design of the Great Seal of the United States.  Seven years later, the first federal Congress similarly adopted the seal and placed it in the custody of the nation’s first Secretary of State, Thomas Jefferson, who may or may not have still been seeting over his Israelites in the wilderness idea being rejected.

Conventional wisdom is that the Eye of Providence and Annuit Coeptis, which means ”He has favored our undertaking”, as a symbol of the Founders’ Faith.  The  eye  was put in a radiant triangle which is an ancient symbol of humanity’s accumulation of knowledge.  The constellation of stars bunched together as one illustrates the motto (which is found just below) and the radiance that shines through is emblematic of the new nation taking its place among the others.  The eagle is a symbol of power with the 13 stripes on the shield represents the unification of the 13 original states.  The arrows in the talons shows America’s ability to make war with the olive branch and its 13 leaves and 13 fruits indicating the power to make peace.  I’ve also heard it suggested that the arrows and  olive branch symbolize the idea that the nation makes peace through strength.  The unfinished pyramid symbolizes the unfinished nation as one of strength and endurance.  The base is adorned with 1776 in roman numerals.  Novus Ordo Seclorum means “A new order of the ages” and proclaims the rise of the revolutionary concept of a nation founded on freedom.

The Ideas of the Symbols of America by Emmet Fox Are Detailed in "Alter Your Life"

Now, over time many people have tried to come up with almost conspiratorial ideas about these symbols as they suggest some sort of secrets hidden in Freemasonry.  But, I found an interesting take by an early 20th century theologian named Emmet Fox who took the position that America is part of God’s plan; that in order for people to have the freedom to know the singular God, they have to have political freedom.  Hence, the United States provided that conduit.  Fox says that the motto illustrates man’s initial idea that he is separate from the Divine but the “Light of Truth” dawns on him and he progresses from having many gods to the One God.  He suggests that there is a spiritual significance to the number 13 and also for the number 4.  After all, the Declaration of Independence was officially adoped on July 4th, which was the same day that the order was given to come up with the Great Seal.  The original inauguration day was March 4 and the President serves 4 year terms, which is not duplicated in any other country.  He points out that both Novus Ordo Seclorum and Annuit Coeptis came from Virgil and that “nothing could better describe exactly what America is doing for the world, the fact that she has a Divine mission.”   He says that the olive branch being in the right claw and the arrows in the left is significant.  He has the similar notion that it denotes peace and good-will are to be the primary consideration with defense only as a last resort but he adds that, metaphysically, the olive branch stands for affirmation and the arrows for denial.  It is important, says Fox, to first affirm the presence  of God.  An interesting observation is that most national escutcheons, such as the American shield, are supported by something.  The fact that the American Shield rests on the eagle’s breast shows that it needs not external or material reinforcement.  Fox goes on the detail many other items which may be of interest to some.  But, he does say that the eye is “striking and remarkable.”  He says that the ancient all-seeing eye is the “Single Eye” of which Jesus spoke when He said, “When the eye is single, the whole body is full of light.”  Fox concludes that when an individual or a nation puts God first, and everything else second,” then the whole body, the whole life of that person or that nation, will be healthy and prosperous.”

I'm Not Sure What the Founders Had In Mind For Certain But This Certainly Would have been the Cutest Great Seal of Any Nation

So, what is the truth of the symbols of the Great Seal?  It’s hard to say.  The founders were well steeped in scholarship of antiquity.  The ideals put forth on the Declaration of Independence were not new, but instead it was the way that Jefferson expressed them that makes the document stand out.  The symbols collected for the Great Seal also were not new.  In spite of what modern scholars may suggest, the founders were indeed greatly influenced by some form or Christianity.  As we have seen, Jefferson was in favor of a Judao-Christian related symbol to be the emblem for the nation as was Franklin.  However, the fact that ultimately, the Contiental Congress chose not to include any overt references to the Christian Faith in the Great Seal is of some importance.  Perhaps they wished to cloak their faith such as Fox suggests.  Or, maybe they were being careful to not tie their objectives for the nation to any religion in order to symbolize a desire for a secular government.  Unfortunately, I do not believe that Thomson or anyone else left notes or minutes that describe their line of thinking.  In any event, the Great Seal of the United States does seem to stand out among nations…and maybe that was the intent all along.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Sun June 20 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  The morning storms on Saturday held us only to 90 for the first part of the weekend.  Snow White and I went for a bike ride and it really wasn’t too bad.  Today will be much hotter and more uncomfortable though.  The models advertise a decent shortwave in Iowa during the day but tend to want to just kill it by the time it gets to Illinois as it makes what seems to me a bee-line for our area.  I’m not so sure why it would just go away as they suggest.  I would think that Sunday evening we should get the left overs at least if not something decent.  I mean, we’ll certainly be hot and there will be ample moisture.  Provided there is not some sort of big cap, I would think that there is no reason for that guy to hold together in some form.  Okay..maybe not severe, but still some storms.  The SPC seems to agree as they have the slight risk area kinda nosing down toward our area.  After this, the next several days seem similar.  Unseasonably hot and humid with no real line for storms to come our way but always the possibility of some guys wandering through.

World War II Outlay Dwarfed Current Defense Budget January 31, 2010

America Awakened To Sacrifice For World Peace

On this Date in History: Yesterday, I had a column on Franklin D. Roosevelt and his personal determination to overcome his polio related disability.  I spoke of how that inspiration helped lead to the eradication of polio in the Western Hemisphere and the continued effort today to terminate the terrible disease world wide.  I said it was perhaps his greatest legacy.  Well, that determination and attitude also helped raise the nation in a time of crisis.

FDR declared War on Dec 8 1941 and laid out blue print for victory on Jan 6 1942 challenging the nation to do what seemed impossible. The nation responded and then some..

When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, US  military production had increased to help the British utilizing the Lend Lease program.  So, the effects of the Great Depression were starting to wane.  But, the US entry into World War II absolutely ended the Depression.  On January 6, 1942 President Roosevelt gave his State of the Union Address and set out a bold objective.  He said that the US would produce 60,000 planes, 45, 000 tanks, 20,000 anti-aircraft guns and 6 million tons of merchant shipping.   No nation had ever produced such numbers and it was especially difficult to fathom given that, in spite of the increased production of the late 1930′s, much of the nation’s industrial capacity remained underutilized.  But, as he had defied polio, President Roosevelt would not take no as an answer.  He simply stated, “Let no man say it cannot be done!”

Ford Was In Charge of the Final Assembly of the B-24 Liberator

See, the industrial capacity of the United States was far greater than any other nation in the world.  Even during the depression, the auto industry produced about 3 million cars a year.  And Washington would look to Detroit to meet its war production goals.  The auto makers had been accepting government contracts outside of their auto production business to help with lend-lease.  The corporate heads of the auto industry said that they would be glad to help but wanted to continue to produce private cars in addition to taking on additional contracts.  It’s as if the big wheels in Detroit had no clue as to gravity of the situation or the breadth of the task required.  It has often been said that World War II was the first war in which machines operated by men would determine the outcome.  Whomever could build the most and best machines would have the great advantage.  But, Roosevelt knew what was needed and he sprang a little suprise on the auto chieftans.   Private automobile production was banned.  So, they had no choice.

Chrysler Ran the Mammoth Detroit Tank Arsenal

With no more cars to build, Detroit geared up for war.  On this date in 1942, the last private vehicles from Studebaker, Plymouth and Chrysler rolled off the assembly lines.  There was some down time for labor as factories were retooled in the auto industry as well as just about all facets of American production.  Because the winners  get to write history, we often hear of the “German War Machine.”   We refer to Detroit and the United States in general as the “Arsenal of Democracy.”  The truth is, by the end of World War II, the United States of America became the biggest war machine the world has ever seen.  The numbers are daunting.  Rationing of necessary materials like tires, gasoline and sugar was implemented.  Construction of highways and roads was halted.  While the poohbahs of the auto industry might not have gotten it, the American people did as drives to collect old tires and paper sprang up all across the nation.  Not only did most Americans not complain about rationing, they also pitched in by growing personal “victory gardens” in an effort to produce their own food and allow the general food supply to be used to meet the needs of the war. 

Sparkplug factories converted to machine gun production.  Lifeboats were made by a company that formerly produced stoves.  A corset maker turned to something at least that resembled its expertise; grenade belts.  Compasses were made by a toy company, Merry-go-round production turned to gun turrets and a pinball machine company made armor piercing shells.   And of course, Detroit turned out tanks, jeeps and other motorized vehicles as well as aircraft engine plants.  As it turns out, the ambitious war time production goals set out by President Roosevelt were modest. 

Admiral Yamamoto

 By 1944, the US had far surpassed those objectives as well as adding 5000 ships to the merchant fleet.  The turnaround in the industrial might of the United States was stunning.  Winston Churchill commented that “the United States is like a giant boiler; Once the fire is lit under it, there is no limit to the power it can generate.”   Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto of the Japanese empire was Harvard educated and had been stationed in Washington during the depression.  He had seen America’s dormant factories but noted the “industrial might” that nation had in slumber.  It is said that after he was told that the Japanese ultimatum was delivered to Washington nearly an hour after the attack on Pearl Harbor, he supposedly said, “I’m afraid all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible  resolve.”   Now it is questioned if he ever said those words but most historians do not doubt that was his feeling.  Either way it’s a good quote and is right on the mark.

US Defense spending today vs GDP miniscule compared to WW II

In 1940, the GDP of the US was $101 billion with federal spending making up over 17% and defense expenditures up to over 9% of the GDP.  Even though increased defense spending in the late 1930′s and helped the economy, unemployment was still had 14.6% or about 46% higher than it was at the end of 2009.  By 1944, unemployment in the United States stood at 1.2%.  By the end of the war, the GDP had increased 73% from 5 years earlier to $174 billion, defense made up about 37% of the GDP and federal spending represented a whopping 89% of the GDP.  During the Korean War, the US spent over 14.2% of GDP on the defense and at the height of the Vietnam War it was 9.4%.  The defense budget for fiscal year 2010 represents about 4.7% of GDP but makes up about a fifth of federal spending.  Still…4.7%.  In order to reach the level we had in World War II, the defense budget would have to increase about 900%.  That should give some perspective and allow your mind to wonder about what the true military might our nation still possesses. 

2010 US Federal Budget

The US is often criticized around the world for its military power…until some needs the US to help in the event of a natural disaster or threat from an unruly neighbor.  George Washington, in my mind, is the greatest of US presidents because he set the precedent of so many aspects that our nation continues to follow.  Washington said, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”  The founders of the nation knew this and the Great Seal of the United States reflects this ideal as the eagle holds olive branches and 13 arrows in its talons to represent “peace through strength.”  Throughout the history of the United States, it is in times when the nation had a weak military that major wars broke out.  The most glaring example is following World War I when the US had almost disarmed completely disarmed.  Many historians question whether the axis powers would have become so emboldened if the US had maintained a strong military capability. 

The Great Seal of the United States of America

What I find interesting is that its tough to find a nation in history that had overwhelming military capabilities that did not use it to conquor and dominate peoples and nations.  To be sure, the US military can be a persuasive tool in geopolitics but, no nation has ever been so reluctant to unleash its military might as the US has been.  Yes, there have been many military conflicts but, aside from the Indian Wars, it has always been used for mainly for virtuous reasons of freedom of others or defense, though there are always secondary considerations.   And after victory, the US routinely eventually returns the nation to the people, which is very odd…and something that is rarely recognized or appreciated around the world.  Let us hope that the United States never again must unleash its full potential.

Midwest Snow Depth

Weather Bottom Line:  Well, it appeared that my initial idea of several days ago that we’d get 4 inches of snow was pretty good.  Another example of why one should stick with the original thought.  I think I got about 3 inches at the old homestead and the National Weather Services put Jefferson County at about 3-5 inches.  It was really pretty interesting because we started gettting snow about 1 am but the dewpoint was still just 8.  The flakes were many but very small.  It was like a giant flurry event.  By 1:30 visibility had diminished greatly but it was still small flakes.  At 2 am the dewpoint had risen to about 11 or 14 (can’t remember which) but we were in a lull in the snow. I went to bed.  When Snow White and I got up today, our porch and door was covered as the wind drifted the snow all over our porch and the little nest we keep for our adopted stray cat Paintbrush.  He was quite upset but when he came around to see if we had fixed his bed, we gave him a whole bunch of food so that seemed to quell his anger.  Then he went out to look for the ladies.

It May Be Colder Than This

If we get clear skies and no wind, I betcha we get to the low to mid single digits overnight…someone is going to get near zero…  I seriously question the double digit lows that I’ve seen advertised on TV and I still don’t think we get above freezing on Sunday.  Looking at the longer term, while I don’t see any periods of extreme cold, overall I don’t see any days beyond the mid 40′s with most days at or below average for the forseeable future.  I don’t see it now but maybe we’ll get another shot a  good snow. But, this was pretty as Snow White and I enjoyed our trek around the neighborhood, stomping in the snow and looking at the beautiful portrait painted by nature.  You should really take time to see it.

White House “Scares The Crap” Out of New York For Photo Op; Talking Rarely Brings Peace April 28, 2009

World War I Protest...What a Waste of Time

White House Wastes Money for "Classified" Photo Op and Scares Taxpayers Who Paid For It

Can you Imagine if this was the Bush Administration?  So, on Monday, a large low flying commercial jet was reported flying near New York City.  What people saw was a 747 with two fighter jets near by.   One could easily surmise that there was another attack coming and the Air Force was chasing down the plane.  Or maybe some people didn’t see the fighters and only saw a 747 flying low near the Statue of Liberty,  which is near the World Trade Center.  The public in the area panic and starting running pell mell in all directions.  At first it was reported as a “military drill.”  As it turns out, it was nothing more than a photo op involving one of the planes that serves as Air Force One.  And who approved it?  The Obama White House!  They wanted to get a photo of Air Force One with two jet fighters flying with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop.  The mayor of New York said he didn’t know about it but some reports say that the military told the city but said that they couldn’t tell anyone because it was classified!  Haven’t these people ever heard of photo shop?  President Obama is telling us how he is going to reign in spending, yet the White House thought it was a good idea to spend untold thousands of  taxpayer dollars to get a photo  and scare the very taxpayers that it are supposed to be serviing.  Ask yourself…wouldn’t the outrage be deafening if this had been the Bush Administration?  Yet…the media seems to be burying the story.  Here’s the take from the New York Times from the NY/region page…not the front page.  Compare it to the Wall Street Journal, which includes video.  The story from Newsweek headline rightly says it “scared the crap” of out New Yorkers.

Jacobs Words Were Useless

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915, World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world.  One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation. 

1915 US Delegation to Hague

Of course, it didn’t work, not in this war or any other armed conflict.  WWI went on for 3 more years. Two decades later we had World War II followed by so many other conflicts.  Now, you might say that if these nations had listened to what is often referred to as the Women’s Peace Conference then these other conflicts wouldn’t have happened.  But, in WWI no one was giving up an inch on the battlefield nor at the negotiating table.  In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain tried the negotiation route and he ended up sacrificing the people of Czechoslovakia for a piece of worthless paper that precluded a world war.   

WWI Could Not End Until Someone Gave Up

I mean really…I wonder if these ladies really thought 20 years after their peace conference that one could reason with Adolph Hitler?  Gee…if the two sides had only talked more, wonder what would have happened?    Negotiations didn’t stop Slobadan Milosevic, it was the bombs of the United States Air Force ordered dropped by President Clinton.  When you extend a hand, you have to have a hammer close by.  People like these women meant well.  But they seem to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves does anything when in fact, it does nothing.  Remember, war is defined as nothing more than an extension of political will.  The object of war is to get the other side to quit.  When there is an impasse in talk, the only thing that is left to do is take action if its important enough. Action requires boldness.   However, at the dawn of the 20th century, it became more apparent that the results of action could be devastating and so the total destruction of war became part of the equation….measuring risk vs. reward.

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace. 

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to disuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action, although it was peaceful action. ..and I’m not talking about walking around with signs.   The US achieved freedom through action.    The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here:

 

 

You Tell'em, Teddy!

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how

the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

 

SPC: Not a Big Deal Tuesday

Weather Bottom Line: The pattern looks pretty much holding true to form which is the idea of getting rain with t’storms on Tuesday as a weak front sneaks through.  If you noticed the sky on Monday, the clouds had almost no vertical development.  This would suggest warmer air aloft considering that we got to the mid to upper 80′s and still had no convective growth.  Any jet streaks have also moved out of the area.  With a strong front, then one could get enough lift to create some good storms.  But, in this case, the front is weak and therefore the slope is gentle.  So, it would need some help getting good lift.  But with not much of a good lapse rate and  no dynamics helping, its tough to get good storms.  Hence, you see we have no real severe threat on Tuesday.  Clouds and showers will hold the temps down to the mid 70′s.

As I had previously mentioned, the front doesn’t go far south but it appears that it will probably get far enough south to make for a decent Wednesday.  Having said that, I wouldn’t call it a slam dunk.  The times I got burned the worst on a forecast was when a front didn’t go far enough south.  It will be close.  Thursday, the front returns as a warm front and brings a risk of showers.  Friday, a cold front sags down and rain chances go up again.  I think that Oaks Day is iffy.  I’ve seen some reports being all kinda optimistic but, here’s the problem; the cold front may get hung up over the area which would enhance rain chances.  Then, there is some indication suggests that a wave of energy will run up along the front over us.  Timing would be the issue.  If the wave comes through in the late afternoon, strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.  If it’s in the evening, then, then it may be okay.  The European model wants to take the bulk of the energy well north which would put the threat in the plains.   The GFS is more interested in bringing a threat to the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and part of the Ohio Valley.  It seems to me its a risky bet to call for no chance for rain or a dry day almost any day this week.  Good news is that for the Kentucky Derby, it still looks like that high pressure will build in long enough to make for a dry and mild Derby Day with rain then coming back for Sunday.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
  
   VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH…CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
   THE COUNTRY…WILL EJECT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MERGES WITH A
   STRONGER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
   PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
   TUE…WHILE THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MS/SRN PLAINS REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH ORE/NRN CA
   IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
  
   …SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NRN TX WWD IN THE SRN TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   …WHERE STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
   JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MOISTENING ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
   MORNING.
  
   HOWEVER…THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S IN NM AND 60S IN TX SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
   …WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN TX BY
   AFTERNOON…AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG NWD DRIFTING E-W
   ORIENTED FRONT…REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONNECTION AND IN
   MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN NM. VEERING WINDS IN THE
   LOWER 3KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUPERCELLS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL…STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM AND A
   RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FAVORS SOME TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN
   ERN NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
  
   OVERNIGHT…ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD IN ZONE OF
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION…THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.
  
   …MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND…
   THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID MS/TN AND INTO THE OH VALLEYS IN THE MORNING…WEAK LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE. IN THE NERN STATES
   …LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY
   SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
   …MODERATE/STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INDICATE A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 18Z-01Z.
  
   ..IMY.. 04/27/2009

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