Perhaps the Most Spectacular Bridge Collapse Ever Caught on Film November 7, 2010

Tacoma Narrows Bridge: A Big Mistake

On This Date In History:   The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened in July 1940 to great fanfare. With a span of 2800 feet, it was the third longest bridge in the world. The builder decided to save money by making the bridge only 39 feet wide to support just two lanes of traffic which seems pretty short sighted given that it was probably a pretty good bet that traffic in the years ahead would continue to increase.  Nevertheless, the bridge only had two lanes but was designed to withstand winds of 120 mph. People flocked to the bridge after it’s opening, not just because it was faster than the ferry, but also because word had traveled that the moderate winds that are common in the area would make the bridge sway and even undulate up and down.   It was pretty cool to see.  Drivers reported losing sight of the autos in front of them when the bridge waved. The bridge gained the moniker “Galloping Gertie.”

Brave (or stupid) Pedestrian

All the fun and games came to a crashing end on this date in 1940 when steady winds of just 42 mph made the bridge sway…and then leap. It continued throughout the day until the entire structure failed. The bridge had been closed but the last man let across lost control of his car and, in fear of being tossed 190 feet into the Tacoma Narrows below, he fled on foot. He tried to retrieve the family cocker spaniel from the back seat but the pup would have none of it. As he reached the end of the bridge, the bridge collapsed spectacularly with the dog as the only casualty.

The result of the collapse was analyzed and is a common subject in college physics classes. Basically, the wind was in tune with the natural harmonics of the bridge. The more the wind blew, the greater it increased the amplitude of the harmonics creating a wave. Its a similar phenomena as when a singer breaks a glass. To avoid a similar fate, bridges today, including the one that replaced “Galloping Gertie” have damping and aerodynamic features built in and wind tunnels are used to test the ability of the structure to resist wind and prevent compromise of the integrity of the structure.

Here is the 1940 Newsreel Footage of the Collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Here is a different, color film on video of the collapse

Whatever man builds, can come down. Gravity and other forces are constantly at play. There are some things in life in which compromise can be a good thing. But engineers cannot afford to not get it right the first time. It kinda reminds me of what US Grant often said, “man proposes; God disposes.” These days we often teach our kids that close is good enough. If that is your methodology, mommas don’t let your babies be engineers.

The US Banks Were Bailed Out in the Past, But Uncle Sam Wasn’t The Savior September 22, 2010

Banks Have Been Bailed Out Many Times in US History

Dow Jones Since 1900

On This Date in History In 1906, San Francisco had a great earthquake. The effects of that quake led to a financial trouble spot that turned into a full-blown economic crisis. At that time, there was no central bank or Federal Reserve. With the system stretched by the stress of the San Francisco quake, some doofus tried to corner the copper market and when that failed, all of the banks who made loans to back the scheme were in trouble so they started calling other loans and the Panic of 1907 was created. People lost confidence in the system and several banks  failed. A bailout was needed. President Theodore Roosevelt was claiming that everything was fundamentally in great shape and threatened a federal takeover of all trusts if the bankers and financial gurus couldn’t get thier houses in order. Who came to the rescue? None other than J. Pierpont Morgan was the savior; the same JP Morgan who had bailed out the system in 1871 and 1895 and the same JP Morgan that is related to JP Morgan Chase who bailed out Bear Stearns in 2008.   To fend off the threats from Teddy Roosevelt, Morgan huddled with his banking brethren and convinced them that they needed to work together to salvage the system in order to save all of their hides and the future of the banking system.   He also convinced the Secretary of the Treasury to pony up $25 million to the effort. The recession did not turn into a depression and the 1907 Panic led directly to the eventual establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

JP Morgan May Have Looked Like a Wild Old Man But He Saved Uncle Sam Bailed Out the Nation Several Times

While the numbers are not as large…not the $700 billion to $800 Biillion that the banking bailout became in 2008-09, the other numbers are not as large either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39% in 1907. On this date in 2008, the market had lost and gained about two percent over the previous month and politicians ran around making comparisons to the Great Depression when a comparison to 1907 might have been a better barometer . In order to equal the fall of the 1907 panic, the Dow that was around 11,015 on September 22, 2008 would have had to fall to 7000 and it was on this date in 2008 that the Dow fell some 300 points and arguably didn’t stop falling until March 9, 2009 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed out at 6547.   So, while it was, and in some measure still is, an extremely difficult and precarious situation, it was not totally unprecedented and it wasn’t necessarily a good match with the Great Depression. It’s just the depression of the 1930′s is all the general public, politicians and most people in the media know about.  Several times in the past,  it was JP Morgan engineering a bailout with some government help and this time it was the Federal Reserve and Uncle Sam engineering a bailout with some other private help. When you hear also of rumors that today’s problem was a plot by those who stand to profit, keep in mind that in 1907 it was rumored that the banks had caused the whole panic just to line their pockets.   Aside from the Great Depression, there were a bunch of “panics” in financial circles and the resultant recessions or depressions  that came fairly regularly…perhaps too regularly. The Dow is currently in a trading range between about 9900 and 10,70o and, in recent days, there has been a declaration that the recession is over. 

Year	Unemployment rate
1923-1929	3.3
1930	8.9
1931	15.9
1932	23.6
1933	24.9
1934	21.7
1935	20.1
1936	17.0
1937	14.3
1938	19.0
1939	17.2
1940	14.6
1941	9.9
1942	4.7

With unemployment still hovering near 10%, the rebound of the stock market and the claim that the recession is over are by no means a guarantee that the market and economy won’t go back in the tank.  Nevertheless, both are, and especially the Dow Jones, are certainly at a different place than anyone in March 2009 could have foreseen.   If something happens that causes a big drop in stock prices again, then maybe we can start to refer to the Great Depression as it relates to the stock market, which is but one indicator.   Unemployment is pretty bad but its more like the late 1970s and early 1980′s, not the 1930′s.

No Hoovervilles Today Like in 1930

The big thing about the Great Depression is that its depths were so far reaching that it led to new regulation by the government into financial markets than had ever been contemplated by the founders or anyone else in an effort to try to control the economy such that these setbacks wouldn’t be so deep or so frequent. To a large degree, it has worked pretty well but to expect these things to never happen or think its some sinister plot just is to not accept reality.

Sometimes, news people say they need to give commentary to “give perspective” or a particular news event. Dan Rather used to defend journalists providing analysis instead of just reporting for that specific reason. Yet, it helps if those giving “analysis and perspective” had some perspective in the first place. It’s probably hyperbole and just outright ignorance that media types or politicians trot out the Great Depression comparison.  I remember when President Clinton was running for his first term against George H. W. Bush, they said then that it was the worst economy since the Great Depression.  It certainly wasn’t even close to the economy of the Great Depression then and it’s arguably not the same now.   It’s probably best to leave that moniker on the shelf until its truly warranted.   Let’s hope it can stay on the shelf and we can call this the great recovery. Some of us need a job, not panic.

Weather Bottom Line:  We will continue with this mid to upper 90′s nonsense through Friday.  A front will be approaching then and will pass through.  As it does so, our rain chances will go up. Trouble is that we are so dry there may not be enough moisture for this guy to give us as much rain as one might ordinarly expect from a strong front.  But, it’s a chance.  The good thing is that it will knock the mercury down to the upper 70′s to low 80′s for the weekend and it may be the sign of a pattern change.  Some models are showing a big ol’ storm dropping down into the central plains and the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week.

When the US Military turned on its own: A Dark Day in US History July 28, 2010

Bonus Marchers at Capitol June 17, 1932

On This Date in History: We’ve heard that this is the worst economy “since the great depression.” I have taken issue with that as I think it is pure hyperbole and political posturing. In my view, our overall economic situation is more akin to the latter part of the Carter administration and early Reagan years. However, it could be argued that the banking crisis was potentially as troubling as the 1930′s but again, and argument might be made that the Savings and Loan crisis was a better barometer. But, in overall economic terms, its hard to make such a comparison. For instance, on June 17, 1932 a Washington newspaper said it was the “tensest day in the capital since the War.”

US Army with Tanks Prepare to Take on US Veterans

What was going on? Well, 10,000 World War I vets had gathered on the Capitol grounds in Washington DC. Across the Anacostia River were another 10,000 who had been living in huts made of scrap metal and other junk from a nearby junk pile. These vets also had their wives and children residing in their camp. They had gathered to see if they would get their money. In 1924, Congress had voted to award veterans of the Great War $1.25 for every day a soldier served overseas and a dollar for every day stateside. But, there was a catch. They didn’t get their “war bonus” until 1945. These men needed it in 1932 during some of the darkest days of the Depression. The US House of Representatives had voted to give them their bonuses then. But, the Senate voted against the measure by a 62-18 margin. Needless to say, the vets were pretty P’Oed.

Bonus Army Camp 1932

So, the “Bonus Expeditionary Force” decided to stay in protest. Aside from the 10,000 across the river, the 10,000 in the Capitol had for weeks been camped out in some 20 sites, including partially demolished government buildings. What I don’t get is that Congress wouldn’t pony up the bonus money…today we’d call it a stimulus…but they did allocate $100,000 for the relocation of the bonus marchers any where they wanted to go. The politicians just wanted them out of town. But, few took up the offer and President Hoover refused to meet with them. About 500 did leave town but 1000 new ones took their place. The marchers started a single file “death march” in front of the Capitol and it lasted until July 16 when Congress adjourned. By that time, 17,000 had gathered to see their less than favorite legislators exit for recess.

Vets Used the Flag as a Weapon to Defend against Police

With the politicians gone, one might think that the marchers would leave too. Nope. They stayed and the local authorities became nervous and on this date in 1932, the Bonus Expeditionary Force faced law enforcement officials and later their former comrades in arms.. The cops were ordered to clear all government buildings, presumably those that were in some state of demolition housing some of the vets. The old soldiers resisted and the cops started firing their weapons. Two US veterans of World War I who survived open warfare were killed by the police in their own country. So…what to do? Why call out the army!

Caesar and Ike Make Sure the Vets Get Out of Town

By the late afternoon, a tank platoon, an infantry battalion and a cavalry squadron were on the scene to put down their fellow soldiers. Who better to be in command of the troops that General Douglas MacArthur. And who better to serve as his liason with the police but none other than Major Dwight D. Eisenhower, future Supreme Allied Commander and President of the United States. And if that’s not enough, why not get Major George S. Patton to lead the cavalry? Clearly outmatched, the old vets were pushed out by soldiers with fixed bayonets and cavalrymen with their sabres drawn.

Vet Camp Burns in Shadow of Capitol Dome

The UPI reported that “men, women and children fled shrieking across the broken ground, falling into excavations as they strove to avoid the rearing hoofs and sable points. Meantime, infantry on the south side had adjusted gas masks and were hurling tear gas bombs inot the block into which they had just driven the veterans.” Four hours later, the camps had been set ablaze and the protesters driven across the river to the Anacostia Flats camp. By 4am on the 29th, that shantyville was also burning and the marchers driven into Maryland. From their, they were told to not stop walking until they got to Pennsylvania.

Maybe MacArthur was trying to re-enact Sherman’s march to the sea. Or maybe he was practicing for his march back to Bataan. Well, maybe not, but it certainly was not a proud day for America’s armed forces and a dark spot on the public record of three heroes of World War II. However, it must have been tough to follow orders to turn on your own men…tough spot to be in. No word on where the Commander in Chief was at that time.

Weather Bottom Line:  We have a little frontal system coming down our way slowly.  Look for scattered showers and t’storms this afternoon and tonight.  The front should ease through on Thursday so rain chances will be in the picture for Thursday but they should diminish as the day progresses, provided the front doesnt slow down too much.  Friday we will be the slight beneficiaries of the front with the edge taken off the heat and humidity but, the front gets dragged back our way as a warm front as another storm system traverses the northern plains.  That should increase the prospects for rain by late Saturday and I suspect it will be more elevated by Saturday night.  The heat and humidity will again be tough after the warm front is dragged through but it remains to be seen if the follow up cold front actually gets here.  It’s too far out to say conclusively and I have other things to do today so we’ll wait and see.

Greatest Bridge Collapse in US History Captured in video and photos November 7, 2009

Tacoma Narrows Bridge: A Big Mistake

On This Date In History: On this date in 1940 one of the greatest engineering boondoggles was uncovered in Washington. The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened in July 1940 to great fanfare. With a span of 2800 feet, it was the third longest bridge in the world. The builder decided to save money by making the bridge only 39 feet wide to support just two lanes of traffic. It was designed to withstand winds of 120 mph. People flocked to the bridge after it’s opening, not just because it was faster than the ferry, but also because moderate winds that are common in the area would make the bridge sway and even undulate up and down. Drivers reported losing sight of the autos in front of them when the bridge waved. The bridge gained the moniker “Galloping Gertie.”

Brave (or stupid) Pedestrian

All the fun and games came to a crashing end on November 7, 1940 when steady winds of just 42 mph made the bridge sway…and then leap. It continued throughout the day until the entire structure failed. The bridge had been closed but the last man let across lost control of his car and, in fear of being tossed 190 feet into the Tacoma Narrows below, he fled on foot. He tried to retrieve the family cocker spaniel from the back seat but the pup would have none of it. As he reached the end of the bridge, the bridge collapsed spectacularly with the dog as the only casualty.

The result of the collapse was analysed and is a common subject in college physics classes. Basically, the wind was in tune with the natural harmonics of the bridge. The more the wind blew, the greater it increased the amplitude of the harmonics creating a wave. Its a similar phenomena as when a singer breaks a glass. To avoid a similar fate, bridges today, including the one that replaced “Galloping Gertie” have damping and aerodynamic features built in and wind tunnels are used to test the ability of the structure to resist wind and prevent compromise of the integrity of the structure.

Here is the 1940 Newsreel Footage of the Collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Here is a different, color film on video of the collapse

Whatever man builds, can come down. Gravity and other forces are constantly at play. There are some things in life in which compromise can be a good thing. But engineers cannot afford to not get it right the first time. It kinda reminds me of what US Grant often said, “man proposes; God disposes.” These days we often teach our kids that close is good enough. If that is your methodology, mommas don’t let your babies be engineers.

Weather Bottom Line:  Great Weekend. Enjoy it.

US Army Attacks US Army Vets in One of America’s Darkest Hours July 27, 2009

Bonus Marchers at Capitol June 17, 1932

On This Date in History:  We’ve heard that this is the worst economy “since the great depression.”   I have taken issue with that as I think it is pure hyperbole and political posturing.  In my view, our overall economic situation is more akin to the latter part of the Carter administration and early Reagan years. However, it could be argued that the banking crisis was potentially as troubling as the 1930′s but again, and argument might be made that the Savings and Loan crisis was a better barometer.  But, in overall economic terms, its hard to make such a comparison.  For instance, on June 17, 1932 a Washington newspaper said it was the “tensest day in the capital since the War.”

What was going on?  Well, 10,000 World War I vets had gathered on the Capitol grounds in Washington DC.  Across the Anacostia River were another 10,000 who had been living in huts  made of scrap metal and other junk from a nearby junk pile.  These vets also had their wives and children residing in their camp.  They had gathered to see if they would get their money.  In 1924, Congress had voted to award veterans of the Great War $1.25 for every day a soldier served overseas and a dollar for every day stateside.  But, there was a catch.  They didn’t get their “war bonus” until 1945.  These men needed it in 1932 during some of the darkest days of the Depression.  The US House of Representatives had voted to give them their bonuses then.  But, the Senate voted against the measure by a 62-18 margin.  Needless to say, the vets were pretty P’Oed.

Bonus Army Camp 1932

So, the “Bonus Expeditionary Force” decided to stay in protest.  Aside from the 10,000 across the river, the 10,000 in the Capitol had for weeks been camped out in some 20 sites, including partially demolished government buildings.  What I don’t get is that Congress wouldn’t pony up the bonus money…today we’d call it a stimulus…but they did allocate $100,000 for the relocation of the bonus marchers any where they wanted to go.  The politicians just wanted them out of town.  But, few took up the offer and President Hoover refused to meet with them.  About 500 did leave town but 1000 new ones took their place.  The marchers started a single file “death march” in front of the Capitol and it lasted until July 16 when Congress adjourned.  By that time, 17,000 had gathered to see their less than favorite legislators exit for recess. 

Vets Used the Flag as a Weapon to Defend against Police

With the politicians gone, one might think that the marchers would leave too. Nope. They stayed and the local authorities became nervous and on this date in 1932, the Bonus Expeditionary Force enjoyed their final day of relative peace in our nation’s capitol.   The next day, cops were ordered to clear all government buildings, presumably those that were in some state of demolition housing some of the vets.  The old soldiers resisted and the cops started firing their weapons.  Two US veterans of World War I who survived open warfare were killed by the police in their own country.  So…what to do? Why call out the army!   

Caesar and Ike Make Sure the Vets Get Out of Town

By the late afternoon, a tank platoon, an infantry battalion and a cavalry squadron were on the scene to put down their fellow soldiers.  Who better to be in command of the troops that General Douglas MacArthur.  And who better to serve as his liason with the police but none other than Major Dwight D. Eisenhower, future Supreme Allied Commander and President of the United States. And if that’s not enough, why not get Major George S. Patton to lead the cavalry?  Clearly outmatched, the old vets were pushed out by soldiers with fixed bayonets and cavalrymen with their sabres drawn.   

Vet Camp Burns in Shadow of Capitol Dome

The UPI reported that “men, women and children fled shrieking across the broken ground, falling into excavations as they strove to avoid the rearing hoofs and sable points.  Meantime, infantry on the south side had adjusted gas masks and were hurling tear gas bombs inot the block into which they had just driven the veterans.”  Four hours later, the camps had been set ablaze and the protesters driven across the river to the Anacostia Flats camp.  By 4am on the 29th, that shantyville was also burning and the marchers driven into Maryland.  From their, they were told to not stop walking until they got to Pennsylvania. 

Maybe MacArthur was trying to re-enact Sherman’s march to the sea.  Or maybe he was practicing for his march back to Bataan.  Well, maybe not, but it certainly was not a proud day for America’s armed forces and a dark spot on the public record of three heroes of World War II.  However, it must have been tough to follow orders to turn on your own men…tough spot to be in.  No word on where the Commander in Chief was at that time.

Monday evening

Weather Bottom Line:  If we get to 90 in July it would be in the next two days.  Not so much today but perhaps Tuesday.  The reason that I say on Tuesday is because there will be a front approaching late Tuesday.  A scenario could unfold that we get a decent southwesterly flow and perhaps some slight compressional warming with the approach of the front and that may get us to 90.  However, some of the models want to bring a shortwave close to the area in th e flow along a returning warm front from the southwest that would help to increase afternoon clouds and that may hold  down the temps a bit.  I’d say about a 1 in 4 chance of getting 90 on Tuesday.  After that, we have the front on Wednesday increasing rain and t’storm chances and then the rest of the week the big long wave trof that had been in over the eastern half of the nation appears to be re-established in a fashion not as deep as the previous one but broader with a greater wave length so it encompasses the northern plains as well as the northeastern quadrant of the US.  Hence, we will be in the jetstream flow or the storm track and so the models all bring through little short waves or upper disturbances now and again keeping rain chances in the forecast for the remainder of the week.

Some Data Suggest Economy Not Worst Since Great Depression…Not Yet July 15, 2009

Year	Unemployment rate
1923-1929	3.3
1930	8.9
1931	15.9
1932	23.6
1933	24.9
1934	21.7
1935	20.1
1936	17.0
1937	14.3
1938	19.0
1939	17.2
1940	14.6
1941	9.9
1942	4.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I recent months, we have constantly been told that this is the worst economy since the Great Depression.  The Dean of the University of Texas business school said so in March.  President Obama said so in September during his presidential campaign and continues to say so today.   If you look at a few key indicators, one may question that assessment. Professor Lee McPeters takes exception to the notion.

But, when one looks at the unemployment rate numbers from the years just after the 1929 crash, we find that they rise to an average rate of 8.9 in 1930 and top out at 24.9 in 1933. (as per the BLS) It stays above 20% through 1935 and then remains in the mid to upper teens until World War II.  Our most recent unemployment rate was pegged at 9.5% which is far less than the era of the Great Depression.  However, when one looks at more recent historical numbers, we find that the current unemployment rate reflects more accurately with the early 1980′s. In 1982, the avg rate for the year was 9.7% and in 1983, 9.6% of labor was unemployed.  For the 8 years of President Clinton’s administration, the unemployment rate was 5.2%.  During the GW Bush administration, the average unemployment rate was 5.3%,

Beginning Date           Ending Date           Dow Industrials          Loss
    ————–               ————-             ——————              —-
Sep.  3, 1929               Jul.  8, 1932             381.17  to   41.22     -89%
Mar. 10, 1937         Mar. 31, 1938             194.40  to   98.95     -49%
Nov. 12, 1938           Apr.  8, 1939             158.41   to  121.44     -23%
Sep. 12, 1939           Apr. 28, 1942             155.92   to   92.92     -40%
Jan. 11, 1973             Dec.  6, 1974          1051.70  to  577.60    -45%
Sep. 21, 1976           Feb. 28, 1978          1014.79  to  742.12     -27%
Apr. 27, 1981           Aug. 12, 1982         1024.05   to  776.92     -24%
Aug. 25, 1987           Oct. 19, 1987         2722.42   to 1738.74     -36%
Jul. 16, 1990              Oct. 11, 1990         2999.75   to 2365.10     -21%

If we take a brief look at the stock market crash of 1929, we find that the market’s initial jolt was a loss of 89% from late 1929 to mid 1932.  For the current environment to be on par with that time frame, if we consider a market high in 2007 of a 14164 Dow Jones, then the Dow would have to fall to 1558 to equal the malaise.  Midday on July 15, 2009 the Dow stood around 8500.

Dow Jones 1974-June 30 2009

1929 Crash...Forecast or Simply History?

 The most recent bear market had a low of 6547 which means the drop from the 14164 high was about 54%.  Now, the Dow had a rebound after the 1929-1932 bear market ended and it rose to at least 194 by 1937, from which time the Dow took another 49% tumble.  The rebound is often referred to as a “false peak” because the apparent recovery in the economy as indicated by the Dow rising 373% from the 1932 low to the 1937 high.  Our current rise from the 6547 low is about 30%.  Earlier in the year, the rebound was more like 40%.  So, the question will be, is our current rise just another “false peak” or is there a real recovery. 

	GDP percent change based on current dollars	GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars
1930	-12.0	-8.6
1931	-16.1	-6.4
1932	-23.2	-13.0
1933	-4.0	-1.3
1934	17.0	10.8
1935	11.1	8.9
1936	14.3	13.0
1937	9.7	5.1
1938	-6.2	-3.4
1939	7.0	8.1
1940	10.0	8.8
1941	25.0	17.1
1942	27.7	18.5
1943	22.7	16.4
1980	8.8	-0.2
1981	12.2	2.5
1982	4.0	-1.9
1983	8.7	4.5
2004	6.6	3.6
2005	6.3	2.9
2006	6.1	2.8
2007	4.8	2.0
2008	3.3	1.1

The 2008 GDP numbers are a bit misleading because the last two quarters showed contraction with a substantial 4th quarter contraction of the GDP over 6% with the first quarter of 2009 contracting by 5.5%, based on 2000 dollars.  The contraction of the economy as a percentage of GDP is definitely more pronounced than in the late 1970′s and early 1980′s if you only look at the last two quarters and compare it to the annual GDP.  But, you can’t do that. It’s comparing a full year to a couple of quarters.  For instance, the second quarter of 1980 saw a GDP fall of 7.8%, which is greater than any of the past 3 quarters.  It was bad timing for President Carter because he was trying to get re-elected.  Bad timing because the total change in GDP for that year was just 2 tens of one percent.  So, the story is still being written as to how well this recession compares to the early 1980′s.  But, the GDP change for the entire year of 1930 was negative 8.6% followed by -6.4% in 1931 and then a huge contraction of 13% in 1932.  We’ve had two quarters with a 6% and 5.5% decline. 

All of this points to a recession comparable to the late 1970′s and early 1980′s.  The comparison to the Great Depression is simply a tough argument to make, at this point.  I truly hope, as I think everyone does, that politicians will not be able to accurately say that we are in the worst condition since the Great Depression.  Many people have blamed the depression on Herbert Hoover.  Others blamed the deep recession of the late 70′s and early 80′s on Jimmy Carter.  Could this be the reason why the media and politicians choose Republican President Hoover’s legacy instead of Democrat President Jimmy Carter’s?  Or is it more because from a PR standpoint, the Great Depression is something that every one knows about.  Maybe its more attention getting or sexy to talk about the Great Depression instead of a simple recession.  But, regardless of the reasoning, many aspects of the current situation cannot credibly be compared with the depression and more accurate reporting by the media and proclamations by policians would be that it is the worst in 30 years.

 

SPC Convective Outlook Thu 8am to Fri 8am

Weather Bottom Line:

  Today we have a classic situation with a storm coming out of the plains, dragging up warm front.  Clouds and showers with a few t’storms are in the cards but all of the clouds and such should suppress any big storms.  But, the warm front will draw up warm, moist, unstable air behind it so that will set the stage for Thursday as the cold front approaches.  It’s a pretty strong cold front with highs behind it for Friday and the weekend in the upper 70′s and low 80′s.  I would think that we would have a reasonably good chance for t’storms and possibly strong storms on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
  
   VALID 161200Z – 171200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS…AND THEN NEWD
   INTO NY/PA…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN SEWD THU FROM THE
   MID MS/TN VALLEYS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS…AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
   NWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
   SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT…40-55 KT AT 500 MB…WITH
   NWLY WINDS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD INTO KS/OK…AND WLY/SWLY WINDS
   FROM THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
   NORTHEASTERN STATES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
   FORECAST BY LATE THU AFTERNOON TO EXTEND FROM NY SWWD TO NEAR THE
   AR/MO BORDER…AND THEN WWD TO THE CO/NM BORDER.
  
   …KS/OK/NEB SEWD INTO SRN MO/AR…
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
   THE OZARKS AND WRN CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH
   SEPARATE LOW LEVEL JETS. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   ELEVATED…STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A HAIL
   THREAT…ESPECIALLY WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORMS. HOWEVER…BOTH
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME SURFACE BASED
   LATER IN THE DAY AS THEY SHIFT SEWD AND ENCOUNTER A
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
   NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING
   WEAKENS CAPPING INVERSION. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP…THE
   COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT
   30-40 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE STRONGLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILES AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT…THE DEVELOPMENT OF MCS/S
   WITH COLD POOLS APPEAR MOST LIKELY…WITH WIND DAMAGE THE GREATER
   THREAT…ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
  
   …LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS NEWD INTO NY/PA…
   AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES…HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND
   TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE 80S…MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN MOIST AIR
   MASS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY WLY/WSWLY…SPEED SHEAR WILL PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  EVEN
   THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE COVERAGE OF STORMS…THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
   HAIL. HOWEVER…THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES APPEAR MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE. SINCE STORMS WILL BE
   DIURNALLY DRIVEN…THEY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
  
   ..IMY.. 07/15/2009

Hey Moe! Extend The Derby Weekend and Keep on Tradin’ May 4, 2008

For all of you visitors to Louisville, why don’t you stay and extend the weekend?  For you Louisvillians, you can extend the weekend too because the weather looks great for the next few days.  A big fat area of high pressure will dominate. Lot’s sun for Sunday.  Chilly start followed by a mild afternoon in the mid to upper 60′s.  Low 70′s for Monday afternoon and then partly cloudy on Tuesday and mid to maybe upper 70′s. I’ve actually had people complain that I hurt the economy by telling people to take a day off and extend the weekend.  I never knew that I was so powerful. 

Good thing this Kentucky Derby was on the 3rd and not the 4th.  The coldest Derby morning was 36 on May 4, 1940 and May 4, 1957.  The coldest high for a derby was 47 May 4, 1957 and May 4, 1935. The coldest average temperature for the Derby was also May 4, 1957.  Two years later on Derby Day on May 2, 1959 they doubled the 1957 high for the record Derby high of 94.  I don’t think anyone mentioned global warming.

On This Date In History: In 1970, four Kent State students protesting the Viet Nam War were killed by National Guardsman. But I don’t want to talk about that.  I already told you a few days ago about the Haymarket Square Riot in Chicago in 1886.  President Lincoln was buried in 1865 and David Frost interviewed President Nixon in 1975, but I don’t want to talk about those items either.  How about this:

For all of you who want to curtail various free trade agreements.  On this date in 1930, 1028 economists petitioned Congress warning them against the Smoot-Hawley Act.  America was reeling from the 1929 stock market crash and so President Hoover and other politicians thought it was a grand idea to put a huge tariff on imported goods with the idea that it would promote the sale of American goods domestically and help turn the economy around.  The economists argued that high duties would effectively shut down foreign trade and create the exact opposite result intended.  But, politicians often do what sounds good to the public rather than take the time to explain why what sounds good is often wrong-headed.  Smoot-Hawley passed, foreign trade dried up and the result was the Great Depression.  Nice going.

What I really wanted to talk about was Moe.  Moe Howard departed this earth on this date in 1975.  He was, of course, the ring-leader of The Three Stooges.  Not only was he in charge on the screen but also in real life.  His real name was Harry Moses Horwitz and was born on June 19, 1897.  He teamed with older brother Samuel (Shemp) and younger brother Jerome (Curly) along with Larry Fine to form the stooges, an act that had its roots in vaudeville in the early 1920′s.  Larry and Moe teamed with a rotating third stooge due to health issues and the ultimate death of Curly in 1952.  But the act went on in various forms through the 1960′s and continues today in various mediums. 

One of my favorite stories about the stooges regards Moe’s hair.  Apparently his mother was so enthralled with his hair that she wouldn’t cut it and it often fell to shoulder length.  Moe grew tired of being teased at school so he and a chum got a bowl and some scissors and performed surgery on his hair, leaving him with the mop that remained his style for the rest of his life. 

The Three Stooges are a remarkable part of popular culture in that it transcended time.  Throughout the 20th century there are probably very few entertainment acts that one could go to a kid from any time and ask if they knew who they were and what they did.  If you could transport a kid, regardless of race, ethnicity or social status, from the 1930′s to the 1990′s one of the few things they would have in common would be that they knew the funny noises the Curly made or that Moe called everyone “Porcupine.”  Given the rapid rate of change in culture, society and technology over that time span, it’s really something else if you think about it.

If you want to read more about The Three Stooges, here is a link.  It’s even got a way to buy the poster of the photo above along with other trinkets!

Clown Ministry-Moe Howard Biography