US Economy Was Salvaged By One Man
February 5, 2010

JP Morgan Bailed Out Uncle Sam in 1895

Gold Used To Back US Currency-Now Backing if the Full Faith and Credit of the United States

On This Date in History:  Once upon a time, most currencies were based on the gold standard.  The US operated on the gold standard until 1971 when President Nixon took the nation off the gold standard.  Since then, the US and most other nations operate under the fiat money system.  Basically, the gold standard calls for a particular currency to be backed by an equal amount of gold pegged at a standard price set by a particular government.  Under a fiat system, a currency is not really supported by any commodity at all but instead the value is established through supply and demand market forces as well as the full faith and credit of the issuing entity.   One of the problems with a fiat system is that, since it is not based on any commodity, governments can simply print money to inject into the currency supply and that can lead to inflation because it is often an aritificial increase in supply versus the market based demand.  That is a concern involved in today’s financial and ecnomic crisis around the world.

1893 Panic Led to Near Collapse of US Treasury in 1895

But, at the end of the 19th century, the US was still on the gold standard and the underlying commodity backing the US currency was the concern.  There was a severe economic depression beginning with the Panic of 1893.  The economy became stifled and large financial institutions were fearful that there would be a devaluation in paper money.  So, they began trading in their greenbacks for gold.   By January 1895, gold reserves in the United States were flowing out at a rate of $3 million a day.  That led to a fear that the public would lose confidence in the dollar and the paper money would be worthless.  So,  the solution would be to replentish the gold supply.  It wasn’t really practical for the government to quickly go to public lands and start mining for gold so they needed to find another solution.  President Grover Cleveland looked into the political crystal ball and decided it was best to push Congress to act with a bill that would authorize a sale of bonds.  In other words, the president thought that governmental borrowing was the answer.  Sound familiar?   The money borrowed would then used to buy gold.  Now, the financial expert of the day was not the President of the United States but instead was John Pierpont Morgan and he wasn’t so sure that publically announcing that the government was going to borrow money  for the purpose of replentishing the gold supply in the treasury was a great idea .  He reasoned that an announcement of such a bond sale would signal that the treasury was weak and only intensify the rush to cash in dollars for gold.  In other words, the government solution would make a bad situation worse.

Grover Cleveland's Great Idea Might Have Led to Disaster

So, J.P. Morgan decided to meet with President Cleveland to try and show him the error of his ways even though Cleveland continued to be convinced that his plan was the way to go to save the nation’s financial system.   While in that meeting, the president and Morgan learned at noon on this date in 1895 that the New York subtreasury only had $9 million of gold left and Morgan knew of at least one man who could present a draft for $10 million in gold that day that would send the system into collapse.  So, Morgan used the opportunity to present the president with a better idea.  For some reason, no one else knew of a law that was already on the books, thus making any announcement of governmental borrowing necessary.  But information is a key ingredient to success so it is not really surprising that J.P. Morgan knew of a Civil War era law that allowed the US Treasury to acquire gold coins directly through the issuance of bonds.  In essence, it was still governmental borrowing to buy bonds but the law would allow Cleveland to buy his gold the way he wanted but to do so privately and not with an act of Congress that might panic the public.   But, surely the saavy financial institutions would know what was going on and what was to keep them from going ahead and cashing in their greenbacks for the same gold that Uncle Sam would acquire.  Enter the power of persuasion of John Pierpont Morgan. 

JP Morgan Knew How To Take Charge...And The President Needed Him to Take Charge

It is rather amazing but in order for this scheme to work, President Cleveland needed one man, J.P. Morgan to assume control of the entire international financial community in order to maintain support of American paper currency.  Morgan had to convince large financial institutions to stop converting their currency to gold.  Perhaps no one else in American history could do what Morgan could do; Morgan promised that there would be no further drain from the financial community.  The bond gold currency exchange took place and no further drain of gold from the treasury took place due almost entirely to Morgan’s power of persuasion.  Now, at this point, it may be common to think that Morgan must have had a dog in this fight; he had to profit from this.  He did in the sense that the system that had made him wealthy and powerful was saved but as to the transaction and the effort, Morgan’s company made less than a one percent profit.   This little story tells us a few things.  One is that the US has been in severe crisis situations many times in the past.  This 2009 fiasco was not the first  time that we have been “on the brink.”  Another is that government alone is rarely the solution; it usually takes cooperation between public and private policy and action to solve a complex problem.  

University of Chicago Founded by John D. Rockefeller

Now, J.P. Morgan bailed out the US government on many occasions and he is often labled as one of the “robber barons.”  But, while these men of great wealth did have tremendous power on a large scale, they used their power for the general good of the public.  John D. Rockefeller argued that a monopoly was the most efficient way to bring products to the public at the lowest price.  You know what? He’s right and he generally did that, though he did run competitors into financial ruin to gain that monopoly.  But, the trouble is that it is impossible to expect everyone who is in charge of a monopoly, including any government, to actually deliver products to the public at the lowest rate. Rockefeller is often demonized for his fortune that pushed toward $1 billion in 1912 yet, he established education systems in the South specifically to bring education to minorities, though this researcher trys to denegrate his Calvinist intention to aid Blacks with ulterior motives.  Even if he’s right about the motives, the fact remains that Rockefeller was instrumental in helping to bring equality of education to America.   He established the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research, the University of Chicago and provided so much philanthropic funding that when he died, his worth had dwindled to about $26 million.  He gave most it away and his son used his inhertitance to revive Colonial Williamsburg.  

Andrew Carnegie's Legacy Lives in Today's Libraries

Then there is Andrew Carnegie who has a tremendous rags to riches story and he left a legacy of the free public library system across the United States and other parts of the world when he donated over $56 million for that cause.  He believed that his gift of attaining wealth should be used for the benefit of all.  But, early 20th century labor issues were often tumultuous and Andrew Carnegie is associated by many for the brutal response to the Homestead Strike.  I suppose that the point I am trying to make is that wealthy people aren’t necessarily bad simply due to their wealth.  They do good for society, if nothing else, they provide incomes and opportunity to people. Same is true of corporations.  And historically, it is been shown repeatedly that cooperation between the public and private sector most often provides the best solutions to problems that face the nation and society as a whole…but we tend to forget that. Perhaps a few more “robber barons” today may be a better alternative to many who currently call  Wall Street home.

NAM Fri 18Z seems content with 2 inches of snow

GFS Fri 18Z Likes 3 Inches of Snow

Weather Bottom Line:  Okay, it’s here.  Rain all day then turning to snow overnight.  Daytime temps mainly in the upper 30′s will be the rule and as the upper low swings around, the air column will chill down from above and so there will be no risk of icing except on roadways and I think that is somewhat of a concern.  The wet roads will probably still be wet when we eventually get to freezing and since there was no opportunity to treat the roads, Saturday morning drive will be problematic areawide.  I’m still thinking something like 2 inches of snow with areas north of the river with higher amounts.  I still think that afternoon temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 20s for most people. 

The next system for Tuesday still looks interesting but there are so many potential solutions that I don’t want to deal with it right now.   There are some machines claiming a fair amount of rain, others call for a huge amount of snow while others have a some of both with  a popular idea being snow, rain, snow.  I don’t like that last solution because I don’t want it.  It does appear though that it will be more of a Tuesday/Wednesday event and not Monday.  We’ll look at it closer when there is something more concrete to deal with.  I wouldn’t totally pooh pooh the risk of decent snow just yet but the trend in the models has been for a track of the storm to not support the giant event that one bucket of bolts still is looking for.

US Gov’t backs Brazil Offshore Drilling-Hypocritical or Good Deal? Dolley Madison: Savior Cupcake?.
August 24, 2009

 

Except if The Drilling is off Brazil's Coast, then Uncle Sam is All For It!

Except if The Drilling is off Brazil's Coast, then Uncle Sam is All For It!

 

Petrobras Drillship Will Have Plenty of Work

Petrobras Drillship Will Have Plenty of Work

What about alternative energy?  You may have heard about a new oil field discovery.  Brazil found a huge oilfield over 100 miles offshore with an estimated reserve of some 40 billion barrels of oil.  And it’s light crude, which is the good stuff.  Now, Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of alternative fuels and has been pushing that way for some time.  They were despearate for oil in the 1970′s and decided it was best to find domestic energy sources for national security.  Now that they found the Sugar Loaf Field as well as a previous big find, Greenpeace Brazil is claiming that Brazilian arms are wrapped around the national oil company and letting go of the environmentally frieindly alternatives.  The Brazilian oil discovery has brought joy to many, but controversy in the domestic press as well.   Now, there is plenty of investment dollars out there. The stockprice of the Brazilian national oil company Petrobras sky rocketed on the news.  But, there is a new investor….Uncle Sam.  President Obama campaigned against offshore drilling in the United States but the Obama Administration has pledged $2 billion to Brazil for offshore drilling development and there could be more where that came from. 

Petrobras Has Converted Tankers Into Floating Production Storage Offloading (FSO) Units

Petrobras Has Converted Tankers Into Floating Production Storage Offloading (FSO) Units

There are critics who claim that is hypocritical and want to know why its okay for the US to invest in drilling off Brazilian waters and not the good old USA, where even Russia just agreed with Cuba to begin drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.  The Chinese are not yet drilling offshore near Floridia. The China drilling in the Gulf story was wrong, but the Chinese are drilling exploratory wells on Cuban soil.  In any event,  you can look at it another way.  They found the oil.  So, if we help them to develop the field, then maybe they would be willing to allow US companies access.  But, then again, it would probably be most feasable to export to the US than elsewhere anyway.  Either way, having access to oil in our hemisphere with a frienidly neighbor is a better national security proposition for America than depending on more unstable or unfriendly regimes half way around the world.

The Saving Cupcake?

The Saving Cupcake?

On This Date in History: Dolley Payne Todd Madison was the First Lady of the United States and wife of President James Madison. In 1790, she married a fellow named John Todd, Jr. of Philadelphia and had two sons. He was a lawyer and things were dandy until a yellow fever epidemic in 1793 that claimed his life, that of one of his sons and his mother and father. I’m not certain if John Todd, Jr. was related directly to the Todds of Kentucky. But, following his death, Dolley married James Madison and Dolley’s sister, following the death of her husband married Judge Thomas Todd of Kentucky in what was the first marriage ceremony in the White House. Sounds like it wasn’t very good luck to be the first to marry the Payne girls.

   Anyway, Dolley goes and marries James Madison and was a very well thought of First Lady.  Perhaps

Dolley Madison Immortalized?her biggest claim to fame, other than having a pastry company immortalized by the Peanuts gang named after her, was her valor. On this date in 1814, First Lady Dolley Madison was scowering  White House, looking for artifacts and paintings to save. This was the time of the War of 1812…even though it was 1814. The British had invaded and burned the city, including the White House. A few weeks later in Baltimore Harbor, Francis Scott Key would write the words to the Star Spangled Banner. But, when the British were coming, Dolley didn’t have time to write poetry, she was concerned

Saved By Dolley

with not just saving herself, but also valuables in the White House. Her quick thinking saved many historic and valuable papers. She is also credited with saving many paintings, including a famous portrait of George Washington.  All would have been lost without Dolley because the British burned the Executive Mansion, leaving nothing but the outer walls.

Of course, the British got their payback when Andy Jackson took’em to the Woodshed at the Battle of New Orleans, before anyone realized that a peace treaty had been signed days before. Oh well…the redcoats deserved it. And Dolley Madison’s name is in its proper place near the top of the First Lady list…and on

A Vending Machine Favorite

the top of a box of Zingers. 

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m telling you, this pattern is very unusual.  Really a more early fall pattern than late August.  Hurricane Bill acted like storms do in late October.  If you recall the movie The Perfect Storm, it had to do with Hurricane Grace which ran a similar path to Bill. That was in late October.  So, enjoy it while you can.  Certainly was great for the Inaugural Celtic Fest in New Albany on Saturday.  Snow White and I enjoyed it thoroughly and there were some 2000 visitors.  The bands were great and the headliner, Brendan Loughrey from Ireland was not only good, but also a great guy to hang with.  He has some good stories and his career continues to blossom.   You should be on the lookout of next year’s event.  I hope its in New Albany again because the venue is great.  But, don’t look for the same type of weather again in August.  This long wave pattern won’t last but we will remain relatively dry with lower than normal temperatures for much of the week.  By week’s end, there may be a front close enough by and humidity levels high enough to prompt some showers, but until then we can save on our air-conditioning bills probably through midweek.

Cops Called to McDonalds Over Lost Orange Juice. GM Bankruptcy and Here Come the Brides
May 29, 2009

New Chairman of General Motors?

New Chairman of General Motors?

Where’s My Orange Juice? I’m calling the Cops!! We recently had a story of a Texas woman who called 911 because the fast foot joint she went to didn’t have enough shrimp on her order as she thought that she deserved. (story I want my shrimp) Now, we have an Oregon man who ordered a meal at a drive through line at McDonalds. (Orange Juice Story with Video) He was supposed to have a box of orange juice and the clerk neglected to include it. If something like that happens to me, I drive back and go back to the store to retrieve the missing item. Not this guy. He called 911 arguing somehow that this is a case of freedom of speech. Are we becoming a society of whiners that if we don’t get our way, instead of finding a resolution on our own that we need to call government authorities to save us?

Maybe Harpo Is The New Chief

Maybe Harpo Is The New Chief

GM filing for Bankruptcy:  On May 15, 2009 the New York Post reported that the original proposal from GM to reorganize was for the labor unions to get 39% of the new company, the Federal Government to get about 50% control and existing shareholders would get the rest.  If you were one of the bondholders, those who took the risk to finance the $27 billion in debt, you would get way less than the 10% stake in the company that you hoped for.  More recently, the reports have the new deal sporting an 18% stake by the labor unions and the US and Canadian governments gaining a 70% stake in the company with Uncle Sam receiving the lion’s share.  Again, bond holders would get pennies on the dollar.  Today, it was announced that GM would become the largest company in history to file for bankruptcy.  It will be interesting to see what the final outcome will be.  But one thing appears certain and that is that the workers and union will own the vast majority of the new GM.  President Obama says he’s not into socialism and that he has no interest in the government running the auto companies. 

Chico at GM Helm?

Chico at GM Helm?

He’s fired the head of General Motors, as would be the right of the person or entity in charge and now the government will take a huge stake in the company, labor will own the next largest stake and those who used their private money to invest will get nearly nothing.  Perhaps the long term plan is operating on the assumption that, over time, the stock price will rise and Uncle Sam will then divest itself of GM at a tidy profit.  FDR did something similar to this and the goverment did in fact eventually make a profit.  But, no one has publically stated this is the plan.  I suspect that is the objective but it should not come at the expense of private investors.  And besides, do you really think the Taxpayers will get a return of the profits? Not directly, of course, but the government will retain the return on the investment.   A potential consequence of this and the actions of the government taking control of the banks is that other nations look to the US as the proverbial “beacon on the hill.”  In recent years, other governments have decided it was best to back off of government control of businesses but, now that they see the US government changing relationship with capitalism and free markets, they perhaps will or are reconsidering their move toward freedom and back toward their old ways.  So, we’ll have the government and the workers owning GM.

UAW Black Lake Golf Course Clubhouse

UAW Black Lake Golf Course Clubhouse

The Wall Street Journal on May 21 reported that the UAW has $1.2 billion in assets.  At the end of 2007, $871 million was in the strike fund.  But, it also included a $3 million townhouse in Washington, DC and a $33 million golf course and resort on a lake.  Now they will be able to add about a 1/5 interest in an auto manufacturer that gets propped up by the American taxpayer.  Workers unite and fight those fat cats who live in million dollar homes and belong to country clubs!  If ideals were followed, then the adage of President Lincoln would apply which is that “a house divided against itelf cannot stand.”  Nevertheless, ideals and reality sometimes seem to be at odds. 

On This Date In History:  Asa Mercer was already the president of Washington Territory’s first university by the time he was in his mid twenties.  The Pacific Northwest had great natural resources attracting miners and lumbermen from around the nation.  But…there was a scarcity of women.  Mercer decided to fix that by placing an ad in a Seattle newspaper promising to find a wife for every man who paid $300 toward bringing a woman from the East.  A New York magazine hailed Mercer as a modern day Moses.  Skeptics suggested that the women would have nothing to do and their trade would be something less than honorable.  Mercer assured that the ladies would be employed as schoolmistresses and nothing more.  Those same skeptics wondered how they could all be school teachers if there were no children to teach.

Joan Blondell Well Before Her Role On Brides

Joan Blondell Well Before Her Role On Brides

Nevetheless, Mercer sailed a ship from Seattle and found he had some 300 adventurous ladies willing to take the trip.  However, by the time he was to set sail from New England, in January 1866, the number of volunteers had fallen to 100.  I guess they had second thoughts.  Those on board became even more fickle when they began romancing with the ships’s crew.  When they stopped in Chile, many became enamoured with the military officer’s stationed at Lota, Chile.  Apparently, one of Mercer’s ladies rode a spirited pony to the delight of onlookers such that 17 proposed marriage.   So, now Mercer had to deal with women who didn’t want to leave the crew and others who didn’t want to leave their Chilean suitors.  So, he set sail at night and secretly stole away…to keep his cargo from getting stolen away.  When they got to San Francisco, he lost 11 who got off and never returned.

On This Date in 1866, Asa Mercer arrived in Seattle with what was left of his precious cargo.  Many of the subscribers who had paid $300 were chagrined when they found out that their payment didn’t guarantee a woman.  One man was quite upset when the specific woman whom he had asked for showed up and turned out to be a different woman by the same name.  Undeterred, the man said, “All I want is a wife, and if you are willin’ I would as soon take you as the other woman.”  Such romantic overtones went unheeded as the woman replied simply, “I do not wish to marry, sir.”

It wasn’t a total disaster for the operation or for Asa Mercer.  Annie Stephens from Baltimore was one of the first to be married.  Her husband?  Asa Mercer.

Brown (top left) and Leonard (top right) Star Trek Veterans; Blondell (top center) Former Hollywood Siren

Brown (top left) and Leonard (top right) Star Trek Veterans; Blondell (top center) Former Hollywood Siren

This little tale was no doubt the inspiration for the late 1960′s TV show, Here Come the Brides.  The photo above is of the Bolt brothers, Jeremy, Joshua and Jason as well as Candy, a girl with whom Jeremy was smitten.  Jeremy was played by Bobby Sherman, who was a teen idol.  His acting career went no where and after watching the tv show, you might find out why.  He tried his hand at singing and that too went nowhere.  Joshua was played by David Soul who later was one of the rogue young cops in Magnum Force.  I think Clint helped him exit the movie violently.  Later he gained fame for his role in Starsky and Hutch.  He capitalized  on that fame by singing a stupid song that was in the top 40.  Jason Bolt was played by Robert Brown who was an accomplished stage actor.  He is known perhaps more by his role in a Star Trek episode in which he played a guy named Lazarus.  I think that was the last we saw of him. Maybe he got the Star Trek gig by way of Mark Lenard, who plays Sarek in the 23rd century but was Aaron Stemple in Seattle in the 19th Century.  I have no idea who Candy was nor what happened to her.

I want to know what happened to Captain Clancy.  It seems to me that aside from Lenard and Soul, Here Come the Brides was the graveyard for actors though it was a pretty accurate show because, like the Asa Mercer story, it didn’t seem there were too many marriages.

(Snow White thinks I am too hard on Bobby Sherman in this…I told you he was a teen idol)

SPC Convective Outlook For May 30, 2009

SPC Convective Outlook For May 30, 2009

SPC: 15% probability of Severe Weather Saturday

SPC: 15% probability of Severe Weather Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  There has been talk out there from some place of some terrible weather on Saturday.  Don’t fall for it.  It’s possible that we could get some interesting storms but there is no support at all from the data to suggest any major tornado outbreak or anything like that.  To our Northwest, there will be a dynamical set up that should induce  stronger t’storms.  There is even an indication from the GFS that a small shortwave comes down our way from that region late in the day on Saturday.  Because of this feature, the GFS is doing what it always seems to do and that provide a forecast of the vertical indicies to be pretty healthy, but not really the SWEAT index too much or others that would suggest tornadic activity.  What it does show would be the potential for hail.  I think its the greatest threat should this materialize.  That would also have a fair amount of lightning and even maybe some strong wind gusts.  It only throws out a half inch of rain.  The NAM is putting out over 1.6 inches of rain and even carries light rain through Saturday night and early Sunday.  The truth will probably be in between with maybe some t’storms in the afternoon though not overly troublesome but also, not with as much rain.   Nevertheless, the threat of severe weather is sufficient enough in the eyes of the SPC to put out a slight risk for our area.  I find most curious the mention of potential isolated supercells and a tornado threat. 

Otherwise, the pleasant Friday temperatures will generally hold through the weekend and then we get hot and humid for early next week with highs pushing toward 90 and the moisture getting somewhat uncomfortable and overnight lows not so low.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009
  
   VALID 301200Z – 311200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS KY…MIDDLE TN…SW OH…SRN
   IND…IL…NRN MO AND FAR NE KS…
  
   …LOWER OH VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD
   INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC…A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
   BE LOCATED FROM NRN MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL KY SATURDAY.
   GFS/NAM/NAMKF AND SREF MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
   LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS
   IL…SRN IND AND WRN KY IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL
   JET. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OR NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
   OF THE CLUSTER SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL KY
   AT 21Z SATURDAY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AT THIS TIME…CONVECTIVE
   MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN
   ORGANIZE…THEN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
   LINE-SEGMENTS ARE FAVORED…THEN THE PREDOMINANT THREAT COULD BE
   WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM. IF THE TIMING IS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS
   MAXIMIZED…THEN THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
  
   FURTHER WEST ACROSS NRN MO…MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOPS STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
   ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
   MO…LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW
   STORMS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
  
   …LOWER MICHIGAN…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY
   AS A 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   SEWD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH COLD
   AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND -20 C/ SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
  
   …SRN FL PENINSULA…
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE
   SOUTH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F…MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN SRN FL SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 850 MB COULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
  
   …NRN CA/SRN ORE/NW NV…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NWRN
   STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE
   RIDGE IN THE SIERRAS AND IN THE CASCADES OF CNTRL ORE BY AFTERNOON
   AS SFC TEMPS WARM. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW /20 KTS OR
   LESS/…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING.
  
   ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2009

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