NASA Data Contradicting Global Warming Assumptions Released in Cone of Silence December 2, 2009

Carbon Cycle

Global Warming Update: With the chaos created by the “climategate” scandal involving hackers releasing controversial emails obtained from supposed communiques between scientists who have been pushing the anthropogenic global warming position, it’s possible that the media missed this little item. The idea has been that the massive increase in carbon dioxide over the decades has over taxed the earth’s natural ability of absorption. NASA released news that evidence shows that the balance between airborne and absorbed carbon dioxide has not changed since 1850 in spite of an increase of 1750% of carbon dioxide emissions. Most of the global warming support data has been based on the assumption that the earth is not able to absorb the extra emissions. Dr. Norman Wagner was one of my meteorology professors and he always said that a problem that modern forecasters have is that they spend all their time looking at the computer and never look out the window to see what’s really going on. Climatologists might have done well to have a class with Dr. Wagner. This should cause everyone to go back to the drawing board. But, instead, this bit of news looks like it was released in the cone of silence.

Is The Lady A Spy?

Apparently, Yes!

On This Date In History:

The British could have used Control’s Cone of Silence. By this time in 1777, General William Howe had his army occupying Philadelphia. When his headquarters proved too small, he commandeered an upstairs room across the street at the Darragh home. The story is that Mrs. Lydia Darragh, a nurse and mother, would eavesdrop on the conversations and sew her notes into her coat lining. She would then pass the notes on the colonials. On December 2,  1777 she found out that Howe was planning an attack on General Washington’s army nearby. She sewed the message into the lining and went through British lines saying she was getting flour. She passed on the information to Lt. Col. Thomas Craig who forwarded the information to General Washington. When the Redcoats marched toward Washington’s position, they were surprised to find the Continental Army facing them down. A three day event of skirmishes made Howe return to Philadelphia to think up another plan….presumably from a new headquarters.

Was Joe Right?

On this date in 1954, Senator “tailgunner Joe” Joe McCarthy was condemned for his snooting about for communists in the government. An ironic twist to the story not typically told; many historians now suggest that there were in fact a number of communist influences in the government. Maybe if McCarthy used honey to attract flies instead of…well….you get the point.

Good Bye Chicago?

On this date in 1942, Enrique Fermi produced the first nuclear fission chain reaction in Chicago. The place? Under the grandstands of the University of Chicago football stadium. Fermi’s work led directly to the development of the atomic bomb and later nuclear power. Thing is, Fermi wasn’t exactly certain that the reaction could be controlled and many physicists were concerned such an attempt would result in an uncontrolled reaction which would mean an explosion….as in an atomic explosion. I don’t think that the Bears were playing for that day or they may have had two potential disasters in one stadium.

Wed Eve...Low Pressure will exit before the cold air comes into place

Weather Bottom Line:  Well, the big threat of snow is here.  Even the Weather Channel took it out of their forecast.  My position remains the same.  If it snows it won’t be much and it won’t matter because the ground will be too cold.  The NAM has zero in the way of snow but has a saturated layer from about 900 mb to 975 mb but the temperatures in the lower 25 mb remain above freezing.  Also, after Thur 10 am, that saturated layer begins to disappear.  Now, the GFS has a little different solution in that it has that saturated layer but it has light rain falling almost throughout the overnight and into the morning and through Thursday.  Then, by Thursday evening, it turns over to snow and takes the surface temperature down close to freezing.  It would put out less than a half inch of snow.  That is the only supporting data for snow…and Thursday night seems a bit late. I don’t buy it,  but there it is.  Basically, the moisture leaves before the cold air at all levels gets here.  About that time, I’ll be the emcee at Light Up Jeffersonville so I can give a pinpoint observation. I think we stay too warm and its no big deal.  We still don’t warm up for Friday or Saturday with highs in the upper 30′s and low 40′s.  Don’t look for any major warm ups after that any time soon.

Farting Pig, Thirsty Camels Gain Attention of Australian Officials; Pre-Global Warming Storm Devastates London November 28, 2009

Weird Critter Stories in Australia

Camel Convention

What is going in the land down under. Parts of Australia have been suffering from a terrible drought. That has created a fire hazard and also brought out the camels. Yes, camels. Back in the 19th century, camels were imported into Australia.  There was a need for the beasts of burden for commercial and expeditionary ventures in the somewhat arid Western Australia.   Since that time, the offspring of those original visitors have multiplied. Even efficient camels need water and, with the severity of the current dry spell. a herd of at least 3000 camels has descended on a western Australia town to forage for water. They are causing so much damage and creating so much mayhem, Australian authorities are taking drastic steps to fend off the assault of camels on an Aussie town in the Northern Territory.

Contributor to Global Warming?

While the government deals with the camels, a fire department had to deal with a gas leak. They were called to a home expecting to find a leaking gas cylinder. Instead, firemen near Bendigo, Australia found the source of the gas was a pig. The fat porker is a family pet and firemen on the scene concluded that the gas odor in the area came from the pig when they heard it squeal loudly from one end and then play a not so melodious tune from the other.  Fire Chief Peter Harkins described the sound a “very full on.”  Unlike the family of balloon boy in the United States, the owners of the pig refused media requests for their story or for photographs of Australia’s most famous farting pig.  There is no regarding the pig’s effects on global warming or if the family must purchase carbon credits to offset the gas release by the family pet.

Great Storm of 1703 By J.S. Miller

Eddystone Lighthouse Before 1703 Storm

On This Date in History: On this date in 1703, an unusual and powerful storm finally ended in England. In it’s wake, some 10,000 to 30,000 were dead, including about 8,000 sailors aboard part of the English fleet anchored just offshore the island nation. Winds were well over hurricane force and apparently the storm stuck around for about two weeks. Claims were that the Thames river had 6 foot waves and 5000 homes were destroyed along the river on which London is built. The author of Robinson Crusoe,

Last Glimpse of Eddystone Lighthouse 1703

Daniel Defoe, reported a tornado that “snapped the body of an oak.” Henry Winstanley had designed and built the first Eddystone Lighthouse at Plymouth in 1696. Just a few weeks before the storm he expressed his desire that he be in his creation during the greatest storm of all time so he could see the effect on his tower. In the be-careful-what-you-wish-for department, he and those who resided there went down with the lighthouse when it was smashed to bits.

The details of the storm are varied. Some say the death toll was just 15,000 other 9000. The date can’t even be totally ascertained because of something about the switch between the Julian and Gregorian calenders. Either way, it was a huge storm; hurricane force winds, thousands dead, thousands of livestock dead, tornadoes, reports of a ship being lifted 800 feet inland by a waterspout and a cow getting lifted into a tree. Thousands of trees down across the country, monstrous waves….it was a doosey. Here is an account from The Weather Doctor Almanac. Seems just as reliable as other sources.

Can you imagine if that happened today? It happened 300 years ago, so it’s happened before. But, you can

Great Storm of 1987 Was Not Anything New For England

bet that Global Warming would get the blame this time around. Never mind that this wild storm happened all by itself during what was called the “mini-ice age” which was a 300-400 year period of extremely cold global temperatures that was partly the primer for the emigration to the New World. Nope, you know that Global Warming would be the culprit. Why do I know this with a certainty? Because the press has already reported it. On the 300th anniversary in 2003, the BBC put out this report, pointing to a storm that was not as strong but still devastating in 1987 as proof. Proof as what? That a storm reported in 1703 was still possible today?

So Cal 1938 Storms...Would A Such A Storm Today Be Blamed on Global Warming Even Though Such an Event Occured 70 Years Ago?

This is the type of nonsense that really hacks me as a meteorologist and historian. I think the anthropogenic global warming issue should be studied closely but, when the press and proponents put out this type of nonsense, it really hurts their credibility. Hurricane Katrina comes to mind. After that storm someone actually said that it was due to Global Warming. Never did the press point out that New Orleans did not get hit by a hurricane, Mississippi did. They did not point out that it was a strong 130 mph hurricane that had a huge storm surge but followed almost the exact same path as the incredibly powerful Hurricane Camille in 1969 with 200 mph winds. It was not unprecedented and, if one were to be basic and silly, one could draw the juvenile conclusion that Global Warming was making hurricanes weaker because Camille was was stronger than Katrina, followe the same path and was 36 years earlier. That is just as foolish a statement as claiming that Katrina was caused by Global Warming.

So, what does the Great 1703 Storm teach us? That large, powerful storms and unusual weather has been happening on the earth for a long, long time. Unexpectedly strong and severe situations will occur again, Global Warming or not. Beware of sources and media reports that try to offer such limited and simple evidence for climate changes of any kind and forever one should hold any reports from those sources with skepticism.

Freezing Line at all levels well south of Ohio Valley by Friday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  The past two weekends, Snow White and I have been graced with the hospitality of the Justice Racing Stables.  We were the guests at the upstart horse racing venture at Churchill Downs and John C. Nolley could not have been nicer.  In fact, every single person whom we encountered who was associated with the group was just outstanding.  I’ve never had a more favorable experience and impression of horse racing as I did with the folks at Justice Racing.  We really appreciate it.  Mr. Nolley has named me the meteorologist of Justice Racing.  I informed him that the quality of my forecasts will be directly tied to the value of his checks.

I told Mr. Nolley not to believe the calls for highs in the upper 40′s Thanksgiving or Friday.  I was a bit surprised though by how much sunshine we had in the afternoon.  Saturday, it looks as if a warm front comes through as ridging builds in pretty quickly.  This should result in temperatures in the afternoon about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Friday afternoon and will probably be the warmest we see for several days.  A front comes down on Sunday night.  Clouds will be increasing on Sunday so it will be a few degrees cooler on Sunday than Saturday.  Let’s say mid 50′s.  Rain chances shoot upward on Sunday night into early Monday.  The front leaves behind a big fat cut-off low in the SW United States but another big trof in the northern jet stream will come out of the northwest and pick up that low.  As the second front comes in mid week, the cut-off low will get picked up, move into southeast Texas and then up into the Southeast US.  That will mean another chance for rain and also a further fall in the mercury.  Highs Monday-Wed will be in the 40′s but by Thursday and Friday we may be talking about highs in the 30′s.

Global Warming Goof: IPCC Can’t Verify Data? Herbert Hoover a Socialist? Ozone Hole Spin? Smoking Ban Lifted? November 17, 2008

00Z 1117 NAM 60 Hr. Wed AM Surface

Look for a front to move through on Monday. There may be some sunshine just after the front moves through but the clouds should return late Monday.  After a blustery and brisk Monday, a very isolated chance of a flurry but really the story is the mercury.  Tuesday morning mid to upper 20′s.  Tuesday afternoon probably not out of the 30′s despite sunshine.  Wednesday morning low to mid 20′s.  We don’t see any 50′s until next weekend.

IPCC Can’t Verify it’s Data? Back in July I posted articles that questioned the veracity of the research

What Happened To This Graph From the 1990 IPCC Report?

used by the United Nations and its International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  In that post (here) you find that there were many people who questioned the infamous “hockey stick” graph that showed a relatively steady temperature throughout the time frame until you get to the 20th century at which time temperatures go straight up.  I wondered about where the “mini-ice age” was from about 1350 to about 1850 and also the previous time from around 1000 to 1300 in which the Vikings were runnnig around Greenland raising crops and sheep.  As it turns out, more learned people than I asked the same question and the IPCC was forced to capitulate and admit that their hockey stick graph was false.  Now it seems that the data from at least one month was corrupted and after saying that October was the hottest on record, the IPCC has had to back track again and admit that their data was wrong.  In fact, circumstantial data so far indicates that October may be the exact opposite of the initial erroneous report.  Two aspects of this latest fiasco concerns me.  One is that the people in charge admit that they do “not have the resources

IPCC Has Revised Forecast Downward

to exercise quality control” over the data that it collects!!!  So, now we find out that the International Panel on Climate Change has no way to monitor the veracity of their data collection.  Yet, these are the people controlling the information that governments around the world are basing thier future policies and economies.  The other thing that troubles me is that THIS REPORT comes to my attention via the London Telegraph.  I can’t find any American media outlets that have brought this to the attention of the people of the United States.  Mr. Gore told us that the debate was over, yet he based his movie and this statement on a bunch of people who admit that the have no quality control over the data.  Doesn’t the American public have the right to know such reports and the explanation?  The IPCC reports were top of the newscast stories on the national networks…but this one gets buried.  Why do you think that is so?

Revised Ozone Report  If you recall, a few days ago I brought to you a report that said that the ozone hole was the 5th largest ever recorded.  I suppose others had a similar reaction to what I had which was that there was legislation that was supposed to cure the ozone hole and everything was fixed and we could feel safe.  Well, it looks like to me that someone high up the chain didn’t like the headline and ordered someone to make a revision because here is the new, revised report, that opens by saying that the US has reduced its ozone depleting substance production by over 97%!!!  Amazing how you can spin one story.  Here is the latest version.  Compare it with the old version which was just a few days old.

Herbert Hoover Bashing  In these economic times, we’ve heard that we face the worst crisis since Herbert Hoover.  In the 1992 election cycle we were told that it was the worst economy since Herbert

Misunderstood? A Socialist?

Hoover.  Of course, if a Democrat was in office during the election-time downturn, the cry would be that its the worst economy since Jimmy Carter.  Anyway, this past election we heard charges of socialism.  Did you know that in the 1932 one of the candidates was charged with having socialistic policies because of his desire for government intervention in the economy?  It’s true and the charge was made against Herbert Hoover by Franklin Roosevelt.  We have always been taught in school that Hoover just sat back and wanted to let the market place take care of the problem.  In truth, Hoover was seen as an interventionist because of all of the pumping of governmental dollars into the system.  After he lost the election, Franklin Roosevelt did the same thing but on an even grander scale.  There are historians who, in this time of Hoover bashing, want to give the reputation of Herbie a makeover.  Here is the story from the Wall Street Journal that appeared in the election day edition.  It accurately points out that Hoover was a man of many great accomplishments before and after his term in office…it’s just that things didn’t go so well during that one term and that has been his legacy. And that’s a shame because he was in many regards a great man.

Fire It Up!

Smoke’em If You Gottem:  And finally, again from our friends at the London Daily Telegraph…seems that several months ago a smoking ban was put into effect on the casinos at Atlantic City.  Casino owners argued that business would suffer because other casinos in the country didn’t have smoking bans.  Business would suffer, they said. The Atlantic City city council said nonsense.  Now that revenues are down at area casinos, and therefore tax revenues, the city council apparently agrees with the casino owners because the smoking ban has been lifted.(video story)  Light’em up and head to Atlantic City!

How Can You Handle the Truth About Global Warming When You Can’t Find the Truth? July 12, 2008

For the Louisville Forecast/Severe Outlook Discussion, look to the preceding post.

The line above from Jack in A Few Good Men is one that both sides the in the Global Warming debate might use. The problem is that it cannot be used by either side because speaking in absolutes is generally impossible. Further, it should not be about sides and, no one ever considers there may be more positions out there than just two. But, stories continue in the media that ignore not only the facts within the debate, but facts concerning the debate itself.

Look at this contrast in these two stories. The first is from Salon.com from Feb. 2008 and it states in the beginning that “Deniers continue to insist there’s no consensus on global warming. Well, there’s not. There’s well-tested science and real-world observations.” However, if you look at the second article from Worldnetdaily.com from May of 2008 and it says that over 31,000 scientists including 9000 PhD’s in Atmospheric, Climate, Environment and other disciplines signed a petition that says the following: “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate,”

Now…Whom do you believe? It’s hard to make a choice. One reader sent me an email that said she could tell we were in trouble because the glaciers were melting in Glacier National Park and Kilimanjaro snow was disappearing. That, I pointed out fit in well with Sierra Club founder John Muir’s observations from 1870 when he observed that the glaciers in the Sierra were melting due to rapidly warming global temperatures. That was well before anyone suggested man induced global warming. Observations of melting ice or even warming temperatures does not get to the root the source of the warming.

The Salon article says, “The science isn’t settled — it’s unsettling, and getting more so every year as the scientific community learns more about the catastrophic consequences of uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions.” The Worldnetdaily article claims that “In the course of this campaign, many scientifically invalid claims about impending climate emergencies are being made.”

People tend to choose whom to believe based on their political beliefs. In short, we believe what we want to believe and let others determine our mindset. There should not be one side vs the other side. This should not be a political debate where one side tries to score points on the other. It should be a search for facts and truth but instead, you have writers like the one from Salon who begins a paragraph with “But I do think the scientific community, the progressive community, environmentalists and media are making a serious mistake by using the word “consensus” to describe…” That sentence alone says two things. First off, the writer is defining his team….his side…the good guys. It’s about winning. The other interesting thing is who he puts on his team. he includes the media as being on his side! Hmmm… He also has decided the entire scientific community is on his side when in fact, we know that over 31,000 from that community do not want to be on his team. The Worldnetdaily article lays out its team. By saying “It is especially important for America to hear from its citizens who have the training necessary to evaluate the relevant data and offer sound advice” it is suggesting that their opposition are not Americans. It goes on to talk about Al Gore’s movie has scientific data with “…many very serious incorrect claims which no informed, honest scientist could endorse…” In short, our scientists are better than your scientists.

It is my view that, unless you demand that the politics be removed from the debate, there will most likely be huge mistakes made one way or another. This should not be about sides. It should be about truth, facts and determining if there is a problem, can it be solved or even, should it be solved. Will the results be such that resources could be better used to combat poverty, disease or hunger? At this point, it seems that it’s either we need to change our whole way of life or we’re doomed…or….it’s if we spend all of this money then we are doomed and you can kiss the freedom and democracy of the US goodbye.

Niels Bohr, the famous physicist once said, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” This is very true and we must realize that no one can know for certain what the future holds or the cause of any change. The media leads us to believe that we are that smart. Al Gore makes it sound like that we absolutely know the truth when he can’t even make a movie without faking scenes using computer graphics from another gloom and doom movie.

Here are the two articles. Look at the difference. The Salon article is long.

Salon Global Warming Feb 2008

Worldnetdaily 31,000 Scientists Reject Global Warming May 2008