When a Hurricane Saved Washington DC and helped Win a War
August 25, 2010

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

On This Date in History:  The war of 1812 began June 18, 1812 when Congress declared war on Great Britain and President James Madison signed the measure into law. Why we call it the War of 1812 is lost on me because it wasn’t over until Christmas of 1814 and the biggest victory for the United States occurred after the war was over. Seems Andy Jackson and his boys in New Orleans didn’t get the news and met the British in a famous battle around Lake Borgne. The battle took place in January of 1815….so officially, one cannot say there was a battle of New Orleans in the war of 1812 because it was 1815 and the war was over. But, since Cleveland had already taken the moniker “the mistake by the lake” I guess they had to call it something. Wouldn’t that be pretty bad luck if you fought and died for your country in a battle of a war that was already over?

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Now, not long before the war was over, Washington DC was in big trouble. On August 24, 1814, soldiers were racing alongside the civilians out of town in a panic. The British had landed 8 days prior with some 4000 battle-hardened troops who had seen plenty of action in the wars with Napoleon. The Americans were not experienced, not well trained and not well led. The President of the United States, James Madison came galloping through on a horse shouting “Clear Out! Clear Out!” When the Commander-In-Chief is telling everyone to haul-ass, then everyone listens. One of America’s proudest moments. Before his wife, Dolley Madison, left she grabbed a bunch of paintings including Gilbert Stuart’s famous painting of George Washington.  It’s a good thing she did because, as it turns out, Dolley Madison is credited with saving valuable artifacts of the nation

Maj. Gen. Robert Ross Led The Men Into Washington and Led Them in a Hasty Retreat In the Face America's Secret Weapon

The Redcoats came marching into Washington expecting a defense. Instead, they faced but a single volley of musket fire. But, it was enough to get their attention because it killed one guy, wounded three others and took out the horse from under the commanding general. The Brits moved on to the Capitol, where again they expected a last stand. So, they fired a few rockets through the windows and storm trooper busted down the doors only to find the chirping of crickets. So, they set the place on fire. Then they set the White House on fire as well as the Treasury building. Major General Robert Ross, the commander, stopped by the newspaper National Intelligencer to pick up the scribe’s final paper that assured the residents that the city was safe. Yup…the press was right on that story and have been as accurate ever since. Anyway, Ross couldn’t get the paper into his pocket as a souvenir because he had already filled his pockets with some of Madison’s personal papers. The general shouted, “Damn It! My pocket is full of old Madison’s love letters!” That’s what he gets for looting.

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

On August 25, 1814, a single maniac named John Lewis came charging at the British Army. He was the grandnephew of George Washington and it seems he was upset over his impressment into the Royal Navy. So, he went on a revenge binge only to get himself shot to death. There was another, more successful defender though. Dr. William Thornton ran the Patent Office and just as the soldiers were set to torch the building, he told the perpetrators that they would be no better than the barbarians who had put ablaze the Ancient Library of Alexandria. I suppose in shame, the Redcoats backed off and the Patent Office was saved. Then, Divine Providence showed up.

Not Long After the British Burned the White House, a Hurricane Doused the Flames and Forced the Redcoats Backed to their Ships

The British tried to set fire to 150 barrels of gunpowder at an abandoned American fort. The nitwits ended up setting off the whole kit and kaboodle at once and killed 30 of their own men while wounding another 44. Seems these guys were their own worst enemy. Then the wind picked up and the rain started to fall in buckets. Just in the nick of time, on this date in 1814,  before the entire city was burned to the ground, a hurricane showed up. The fires were put out and Ross ordered a full scale retreat back to their ships. The British never returned and Washington DC was saved from total destruction by this so-called “Hurricane of Providence.”   Most accounts of the burning of Washington, such as the New World Encyclopedia, mention the hurricane in passing but do suggest that the rain from the tropical cyclone did put out the fires in the public buildings.  Now, just because the British evacuated Washington DC doesn’t mean that they were done. Somehow their ships were spared the wrath of the hurricane because less than a month later, they attempted to invade Baltimore but they were not able to fully penetrate the city’s defense or destroy Fort McHenry that guarded Baltimore Harbor. It was during the bombardment of Fort McHenry that Francis Scott Key was inspired to write the words to what became known as the Star Spangled Banner. And guess who was also involved in that attack? Why none other than Maj. Gen. Robert Ross was a key figure in the adventure of Francis Scott Key during the Battle of Baltimore. So, without the Hurricane of Providence, maybe there would not have been a Star Spangled Banner. But, this national intervention of Divinity didn’t save everything. While the city was saved, the Patent Office that Dr. Thornton so skillfully saved wasn’t as lucky. The roof blew off. Perhaps Dr. Thornton missed church that week.

Weather Bottom Line:  You won’t believe the end of the week.  A big fat area of high pressure is dropping down from Canada.  You’ll wake up to temps in the low 60’s or maybe even upper 50’s on Thursday morning.  It will be tough to get to the low 80’s in the afternoon.  Friday the high moves off to the east but overnight temps will fall to the low to mid 50’s.  The wind will become more easterly on Friday afternoon and we’ll get to the low 80’s.  Another cool night on Friday night will give way to Southeasterly winds on Saturday and highs in the mid to upper 80’s and then we’ll threaten 90 on Sunday.  There will be abundant sunshine throughout.  This high will get anchored along the East Coast which will help prevent Hurricane Danielle from approaching the US and most likely what will become Hurricane Earl as well.

Hurricane of Providence Saved Washington DC and perhaps the Nation
June 18, 2010

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

The war of 1812 began on this date in history when Congress declared war on Great Britain and President James Madison signed the measure into law. Why we call it the War of 1812 is lost on me because it wasn’t over until Christmas of 1814 and the biggest victory for the United States occurred after the war was over. Seems Andy Jackson and his boys in New Orleans didn’t get the news and met the British in a famous battle around Lake Borgne. The battle took place in January of 1815….so officially, one cannot say there was a battle of New Orleans in the war of 1812 because it was 1815 and the war was over. But, since Cleveland had already taken the moniker “the mistake by the lake” I guess they had to call it something. Wouldn’t that be pretty bad luck if you fought and died for your country in a battle of a war that was already over?

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Now, not long before the war was over, Washington DC was in big trouble. On August 24, 1814, soldiers were racing alongside the civilians out of town in a panic. The British had landed 8 days prior with some 4000 battle-hardened troops who had seen plenty of action in the wars with Napoleon. The Americans were not experienced, not well trained and not well led. The President of the United States, James Madison came galloping through on a horse shouting “Clear Out! Clear Out!” When the Commander-In-Chief is telling everyone to haul-ass, then everyone listens. One of America’s proudest moments. Before his wife, Dolley Madison, left she grabbed a bunch of paintings including Gilbert Stuart’s famous painting of George Washington. Good thing she did.

Maj. Gen. Robert Ross Led The Men Into Washington and Led Them in a Hasty Retreat In the Face America's Secret Weapon

The Redcoats came marching into Washington expecting a defense. Instead, they faced but a single volley of musket fire. But, it was enough to get their attention because it killed one guy, wounded three others and took out the horse from under the commanding general. The Brits moved on to the Capitol, where again they expected a last stand. So, they fired a few rockets through the windows and storm trooper busted down the doors only to find the chirping of crickets. So, they set the place on fire. Then they set the White House on fire as well as the Treasury building. Major General Robert Ross, the commander, stopped by the newspaper National Intelligencer to pick up the scribe’s final paper that assured the residents that the city was safe. Yup…the press was right on that story and have been as accurate ever since. Anyway, Ross couldn’t get the paper into his pocket as a souvenir because he had already filled his pockets with some of Madison’s personal papers. The general shouted, “Damn It! My pocket is full of old Madison’s love letters!” That’s what he gets for looting.

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

The next day, a single maniac named John Lewis came charging at the British Army. He was the grandnephew of George Washington and it seems he was upset over his impressment into the Royal Navy. So, he went on a revenge binge only to get himself shot to death. There was another, more successful defender though. Dr. William Thornton ran the Patent Office and just as the soldiers were set to torch the building, he told the perpetrators that they would be no better than the barbarians who had put ablaze the Ancient Library of Alexandria. I suppose in shame, the Redcoats backed off and the Patent Office was saved. Then,  Divine Providence showed up.

Not Long After the British Burned the White House, a Hurricane Doused the Flames and Forced the Redcoats Backed to their Ships

The British tried to set fire to 150 barrels of gunpowder at an abandoned American fort. The nitwits ended up setting off the whole kit and kaboodle at once and killed 30 of their own men while wounding another 44. Seems these guys were their own worst enemy. Then the wind picked up and the rain started to fall in buckets. Just in the nick of time before the entire city was burned to the ground, a hurricane showed up. The fires were put out and Ross ordered a full scale retreat back to their ships.   The British never returned and Washington DC was saved from total destruction by this so-called “Hurricane of Providence.”   Just because the British evacuated Washington DC doesn’t mean that they were done.  Somehow their ships were spared the wrath of the hurricane because less than a month later, they attempted to invade Baltimore but they were not able to fully penetrate the city’s defense or destroy Fort McHenry that guarded Baltimore Harbor.  It was during the bombardment of Fort McHenry that Francis Scott Key was inspired to write the words to what became known as the Star Spangled Banner.   And guess who was also involved in that attack?  Why none other than Maj. Gen. Robert Ross was a key figure in the adventure of Francis Scott Key during the Battle of Baltimore.  So, without the Hurricane of Providence, maybe there would not have been a Star Spangled Banner.  But, this national intervention of Divinity didn’t save everything.   While the city was saved, the Patent Office that Dr. Thornton so skillfully saved wasn’t as lucky. The roof blew off. Perhaps Dr. Thornton missed church that week. 

Weather Bottom Line:   It’s going to be hot and humid over the weekend; similar to what we saw last weekend.  There will the tail end of a front coming and sitting down on top of us by Sunday.  The difference between this weekend and last weekend is that there is not nearly the number of shortwaves wandering through the flow, so the prospects of rain and t’storms is diminished.  The NAM wants to have a wave pass on Saturday bringing us an elevated chance for rain and t’storms on Saturday afternoon while the GFS favors a shortwave passing to the north and an appendange far enough south to increase our prospects on Sunday afternoon.  Since the boundary will be closer to us or even over us on Sunday, I would favor it as the better prospect.  Just keep in mind that, should you find yourself under an isolated or scattered t’storm it will have the potential to drop a pretty fair amount of rain given the moisture content of the air.

US Gov’t backs Brazil Offshore Drilling-Hypocritical or Good Deal? Dolley Madison: Savior Cupcake?.
August 24, 2009

 

Except if The Drilling is off Brazil's Coast, then Uncle Sam is All For It!

Except if The Drilling is off Brazil's Coast, then Uncle Sam is All For It!

 

Petrobras Drillship Will Have Plenty of Work

Petrobras Drillship Will Have Plenty of Work

What about alternative energy?  You may have heard about a new oil field discovery.  Brazil found a huge oilfield over 100 miles offshore with an estimated reserve of some 40 billion barrels of oil.  And it’s light crude, which is the good stuff.  Now, Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of alternative fuels and has been pushing that way for some time.  They were despearate for oil in the 1970’s and decided it was best to find domestic energy sources for national security.  Now that they found the Sugar Loaf Field as well as a previous big find, Greenpeace Brazil is claiming that Brazilian arms are wrapped around the national oil company and letting go of the environmentally frieindly alternatives.  The Brazilian oil discovery has brought joy to many, but controversy in the domestic press as well.   Now, there is plenty of investment dollars out there. The stockprice of the Brazilian national oil company Petrobras sky rocketed on the news.  But, there is a new investor….Uncle Sam.  President Obama campaigned against offshore drilling in the United States but the Obama Administration has pledged $2 billion to Brazil for offshore drilling development and there could be more where that came from. 

Petrobras Has Converted Tankers Into Floating Production Storage Offloading (FSO) Units

Petrobras Has Converted Tankers Into Floating Production Storage Offloading (FSO) Units

There are critics who claim that is hypocritical and want to know why its okay for the US to invest in drilling off Brazilian waters and not the good old USA, where even Russia just agreed with Cuba to begin drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.  The Chinese are not yet drilling offshore near Floridia. The China drilling in the Gulf story was wrong, but the Chinese are drilling exploratory wells on Cuban soil.  In any event,  you can look at it another way.  They found the oil.  So, if we help them to develop the field, then maybe they would be willing to allow US companies access.  But, then again, it would probably be most feasable to export to the US than elsewhere anyway.  Either way, having access to oil in our hemisphere with a frienidly neighbor is a better national security proposition for America than depending on more unstable or unfriendly regimes half way around the world.

The Saving Cupcake?

The Saving Cupcake?

On This Date in History: Dolley Payne Todd Madison was the First Lady of the United States and wife of President James Madison. In 1790, she married a fellow named John Todd, Jr. of Philadelphia and had two sons. He was a lawyer and things were dandy until a yellow fever epidemic in 1793 that claimed his life, that of one of his sons and his mother and father. I’m not certain if John Todd, Jr. was related directly to the Todds of Kentucky. But, following his death, Dolley married James Madison and Dolley’s sister, following the death of her husband married Judge Thomas Todd of Kentucky in what was the first marriage ceremony in the White House. Sounds like it wasn’t very good luck to be the first to marry the Payne girls.

   Anyway, Dolley goes and marries James Madison and was a very well thought of First Lady.  Perhaps

Dolley Madison Immortalized?her biggest claim to fame, other than having a pastry company immortalized by the Peanuts gang named after her, was her valor. On this date in 1814, First Lady Dolley Madison was scowering  White House, looking for artifacts and paintings to save. This was the time of the War of 1812…even though it was 1814. The British had invaded and burned the city, including the White House. A few weeks later in Baltimore Harbor, Francis Scott Key would write the words to the Star Spangled Banner. But, when the British were coming, Dolley didn’t have time to write poetry, she was concerned

Saved By Dolley

with not just saving herself, but also valuables in the White House. Her quick thinking saved many historic and valuable papers. She is also credited with saving many paintings, including a famous portrait of George Washington.  All would have been lost without Dolley because the British burned the Executive Mansion, leaving nothing but the outer walls.

Of course, the British got their payback when Andy Jackson took’em to the Woodshed at the Battle of New Orleans, before anyone realized that a peace treaty had been signed days before. Oh well…the redcoats deserved it. And Dolley Madison’s name is in its proper place near the top of the First Lady list…and on

A Vending Machine Favorite

the top of a box of Zingers. 

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m telling you, this pattern is very unusual.  Really a more early fall pattern than late August.  Hurricane Bill acted like storms do in late October.  If you recall the movie The Perfect Storm, it had to do with Hurricane Grace which ran a similar path to Bill. That was in late October.  So, enjoy it while you can.  Certainly was great for the Inaugural Celtic Fest in New Albany on Saturday.  Snow White and I enjoyed it thoroughly and there were some 2000 visitors.  The bands were great and the headliner, Brendan Loughrey from Ireland was not only good, but also a great guy to hang with.  He has some good stories and his career continues to blossom.   You should be on the lookout of next year’s event.  I hope its in New Albany again because the venue is great.  But, don’t look for the same type of weather again in August.  This long wave pattern won’t last but we will remain relatively dry with lower than normal temperatures for much of the week.  By week’s end, there may be a front close enough by and humidity levels high enough to prompt some showers, but until then we can save on our air-conditioning bills probably through midweek.

Hurricane Providence Saves Washington; Midwest, Ohio Valley Severe Storms Next Few Days
June 18, 2009

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

The war of 1812 began on this date in historywhen Congress declared war and President James Madison signed the measure into law. Why we call it the War of 1812 is lost on me because it wasn’t over until Christmas of 1814 and the biggest victory for the United States occurred after the war was over. Seems Andy Jackson and his boys in New Orleans didn’t get the news and met the British in a famous battle around Lake Borgne. The battle took place in January of 1815….so officially, one cannot say there was a battle of New Orleans in the war of 1812 because it was 1815 and the war was over. But, since Cleveland had already taken the moniker “the mistake by the lake” I guess they had to call it something. Wouldn’t that be pretty bad luck if you fought and died for your country in a battle of a war that was already over?

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Now, not long before the war was over, Washington DC was in big trouble. On August 24, 1814, soldiers were racing alongside the civilians out of town in a panic. The British had landed 8 days prior with some 4000 battle-hardened troops who had seen plenty of action in the wars with Napoleon. The Americans were not experienced, not well trained and not well led. The President of the United States, James Madison came galloping through on a horse shouting “Clear Out! Clear Out!” When the Commander-In-Chief is telling everyone to haul-ass, then everyone listens. One of America’s proudest moments. Before his wife, Dolley, left she grabbed a bunch of paintings including Gilbert Stuart’s famous painting of George Washington. Good thing she did.

The Redcoats came marching into Washington expecting a defense. Instead, they faced but a single volley of musket fire. But, it was enough to get their attention because it killed one guy, wounded three others and took out the horse from under the commanding general. The Brits moved on to the Capitol, where again they expected a last stand. So, they fired a few rockets through the windows and storm trooper busted down the doors only to find the chirping of crickets. So, they set the place on fire. Then they set the White House on fire as well as the Treasury building. Major General Robert Ross, the commander, stopped by the newspaper National Intelligencer to pick up the scribe’s final paper that assured the residents that the city was safe. Yup…the press was right on that story and have been as accurate ever since. Anyway, Ross couldn’t get the paper into his pocket as a souvenir because he had already filled his pockets with some of Madison’s personal papers. The general shouted, “Damn It! My pocket is full of old Madison’s love letters!” That’s what he gets for looting.

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

The next day, a single maniac named John Lewis came charging at the British Army. He was the grandnephew of George Washington and it seems he was upset over his impressment into the Royal Navy. So, he went on a revenge binge only to get himself shot to death. There was another, more successful defender though. Dr. William Thornton ran the Patent Office and just as the soldiers were set to torch the building, he told the perpetrators that they would be no better than the barbarians who had put ablaze the ancient library of Alexandria. I suppose in shame, the Redcoats backed off and the Patent Office was saved. The Divine Providence showed up.

The British tried to set fire to 150 barrels of gunpowder at an abandoned American fort. The nitwits ended up setting off the whole kit and kaboodle at once and killed 30 of their own men while wounding another 44. Seems these guys were their own worst enemy. Then the wind picked up and the rain started to fall in buckets. Just in the nick of time before the entire city was burned to the ground, a hurricane showed up. The fires were put out and Ross ordered a full scale retreat back to their ships. While the city was saved, the Patent Office that Dr. Thornton so skillfully saved wasn’t as lucky. The roof blew off. Perhaps Dr. Thornton missed church that week.

SPC Severe Outlook Thursday

SPC Severe Outlook Thursday

Thursday Severe Hail Probability

Thursday Severe Hail Probability

Weather Bottom Line: Look, it’s 2:22am on Thursday and I’ve got things to do, like go to bed. So this isnt going to be too detailed. We’re in an area of unsettled weather for the next few days. We’ve got a strong jet stream and there will be areas of short waves roaming through. On Thursday, the SPC seems to feel the best chance for things blowing up will be to our northwest. That is where the biggest threat, a moderate risk, is outlined. But the flow is right down over our area so the SPC seems to think that the storms will be winding down from big boppers with some super cells to probably a line of strong stuff. While our twister threat is just 2%, our hail and high wind threat is much higher. On Friday, the big blow up area is just to our north but we are on the fringe so look for your local tv stations to be breaking into your favorite programs on Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday too. That’s it in a nutshell. Probably a good idea to pay attention the next few days. Despite the limited risk of tornadoes on Thursday put out by the SPC, don’t be surprised to see a tornado watch….maybe Friday too.

Thursday Severe Wind Probability

Thursday Severe Wind Probability

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

VALID 181200Z – 191200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN…NRN AND CNTRL
IA…SWRN WI THROUGH NRN IL INTO NRN IND…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY…ERN TN VALLEY…CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC…

…SYNOPSIS…

Friday Severe Outlook

Friday Severe Outlook

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SERN STATES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE WEST…AND PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL EJECT NEWD…SUPPRESSING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES…THROUGH NWD
PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE SLOWED BY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE

Friday Severe Probability

Friday Severe Probability

EJECTING IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS…REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
A DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB.

…CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY REGION…

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF WARM FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY…PRIMARILY OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WHERE LOW

Saturday Convective Outlook

Saturday Convective Outlook

LEVEL
JET INTERSECTS BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING
THE DAY. A RESERVOIR OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST IN WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE A WARM EML WILL OVERSPREAD A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE.

IN WAKE OF EARLY ACTIVITY…A CAP RESULTING FROM THE WARM EML WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER…STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND AS DEEPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FARTHER EAST ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE MOIST…UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE
WARM SECTOR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS…SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THIS REGION…HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.

…OH VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA…

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT OF 40-50 KT WILL RESULT IN BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

…CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC…

DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION THURSDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

…SRN HIGH PLAINS…

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL WEAKEN CAP. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE SURFACE-700 MB
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER…THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 06/18/2009

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