Parma Forecast Track Dangerously Close to the Philippines; Melor Has Sight on Tokyo October 6, 2009

W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)

for a more recent update on Parma (pepeng) and Typhoon Melor, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

The former Typhoon Parma forecast track (JTWC discussion below) is getting uncomfortably close to Luzon in the Philippines.  Basically what is happening is that the powerful Super Typhoon Melor (JTWC discussion below) is racing west-northwestward across the Philippines Sea and its substantial flow is taking the drifting Tropical Storm Parma back south from the same direction that it came.   Melor is being affected a little by this binary interaction with Parma and is now forecast to move a little more northwest prior to its shift in direction.  Typhoon Melor gets caught up in a strong southwesterly flow and it shoots to the northeast and begins to get sheared in the process.  That would weaken Melor as it moves up along the western coast of Japan, though the most recent forecast tracks have been consistently running the storm either across Tokyo Bay or just at the entrance to Tokyo Bay.  However, this latest forecast track has the storm swinging farther west(due to Parma) and therefore the northeastern track has Melor streaking inland over the top of Tokyo itself.  It  remains to be seen if that track comes about but Melor is expected to be a minimum typhoon at that time.   I suspect since it had been so formidable and because of its forward momentum, it will probably have a higher storm surge than what might normally be expected with a weakening typhoon that is transitioning to extra-tropical status.  On the other hand, its quick pace would also mean that the threat for extreme rainfall in Japan may be reduced.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC

As for Parma, the forecast suggests that the storm does not strengthen as it moves back south or south-southeast because its moving very slowly back over water that is already been churned up.  That would mean that essentially the warm water on the surface has been blown around and cooler water from below has come up to take its place. Its called upwelling and is why a tropical cyclone needs to stay on the move if its going to survive.    Nevertheless, the issue with the Philippines and particularly the area around Manila, is rainfall and just because  the intensity decreases doesn’t mean that heavy rains are not possible.  Remember, Ketsana was just a tropical storm and flooding from it killed nearly 300 people and some 200 more in Southeast Asia.  Now the boys at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center do kick the storm out to the west before it comes back across the Philippines but it may be close enough to cause problems.  In the meantime, the forecast calls for an increase in intensity as it kicks west and that could mean problems down the road for the same parts of Southeast Asia, namely Vietnam, that also had trouble with Ketsana.

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed

Here is what is troubling.  I only have access to the 12Z run of the GFS and the 18Z run of the NOGAPS.  Previously, it was the GFS that kept on wanting to take Parma back over the Philippines, most notably right over Manila.  Now, Parma is kinda stuck between a ridge to the west and ridge to the east.  Its got nothing to steer it except the little bit of influence south by Melor.  The thinking is that the ridge to the west will be dominant and take Parma west.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center seems to be discounting the GFS and NOGAPS as indicated by this sentence in their discussion:  “The available numeric guidance are in wide disagreement with the GFS and NOGAPS attempting an eventual turn to the Northeast and the European and EGRR and ECMWF favoring and eventual westerly track into the South China Sea.”  My concern is that the GFS has been consistent in wanting to bring the storm back over the Philippines one way or another. 

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu

Now, the NOGAPS has jumped on board with that thinking, at least for this model run.  This storm has been exteremly difficult to track due to so many variable influences and the fact that its kinda gotten stuck in no man’s land without strong steering guidance.  In my view, it is still beyond human capabilities to make any definitive statement concerning the ultimate fate in relation to Parma.  I think its safe to say that rain will continue to fall over Luzon, whether or not its intense heavy rain over an extended period of time remains to be seen and we’ll just have to wait and see whether the influence of Melor will be sufficient to run the storm all the way back to the Philippines or if the ridge to the west will nose in strong enough and fast enough to take it away.  Either way, it remains to be seen whether, given the proximity of the storm to the Philippines in any scenario and that it currently has decent upper level venting to allow for development of convection, if the storms move over the islands in the counter-clockwise flow cause more flooding problems.  The government of the Philippines seem to be better prepared and seems to be ready for any eventuality. 

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). STRONG VENTING TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION LOST NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
STORM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
IN THE LUZON STRAIT.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED BEYOND TAU 72 IN ORDER TO
REFLECT DECREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE BEFORE DAY 5. AS IS TYPICAL IN A
WEAK OR AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE MODEL TRACKERS
ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MODEL FIELDS THAT THE STORM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BUT
AGAIN, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY. INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
LIKELY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND UPWELLING OF COOL, SUB-SURFACE WATER. HOWEVER,
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY DRIFT.
    C. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY AT DAY 4 AND
BEYOND, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASED OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FROM UPWELLING. INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED
IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LIKLIHOOD
OF THIS SCENARIO. //

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR) IS CURRENTLY A 135 KNOT
SYSTEM,BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FINAL-T (6.0) AND
CURRENT INTENSITY (7.0) FROM THE PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 050600Z TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 051200Z AND HAS SLOWED BY 2 KNOTS. THE DECREASED TRACK SPEED
AND INCREASED NORTHWARD TURN ARE BOTH PRECURSORS TO RECURVATURE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE CAROLINE ISLANDS IN MICRONESIA
HAS BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, FAVORABLE VENTING INTO THIS FEATURE HAS CEASED.
UNRELATED, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY,
AND THE EYE IS AT ITS LARGEST DIAMETER YET (32NM). MORE
RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STY NEARS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//

Real Independence Only Half Captured; A Cold Story January 14, 2009

 On This Date in History: The independence of this nation was finally ratified on January 14, 1784. The Battle of Yorktown was fought in 1781. The Colonial Army, under General George Washington combined with French forces under General Rochambeau, boxed the British Army in at Yorktown with the French Navy blocking their retreat in the Chesapeake Bay. British General Lord Cornwallis surrendered and the war was over. But, it took until November of 1783 for a final treaty to be signed. This was called the Second Treaty of Paris because there had already been a Treaty of Paris to end the 7 years war. The painting above by Benjamin West was supposed to be of the signing ceremony…but its unfinished because the sore loser British delegation refused to show up and pose. So, its the most famous unfinished painting in history. It wasn’t until this date in 1784 that the treaty was ratified by the United States Congress.

So even though we declared independence in 1776 and finished off the crown in 1781 and a treaty was signed in late 1783 and the last British troops finally left shortly thereafter, Congress didn’t get around to putting the official stamp on the end of hostilities until January of 1784…and Congress has been dragging its feet ever since.

 

GFS Snow Total Thru Midday Sunday

Even The NAM Fri AM near 0

Weather Bottom Line: One of my regular viewers, Eric, claims that I am out on a limb by myself regarding the duration of the cold spell.  I would say that my limb is getting larger and that others will join.  In fact, I saw one outlet that changed their weekend forecast to keep us at or below freezing.  It will be interesting to see if we get above freezing for a time on Wednesday.  I’m not buying it and the 18Z NAM is even only going to 33 or so.  I say nyet.  Won’t really matter though because if we do, it won’t last and will be largely an academic because the mercury will fall rapidly thereafter.   I’m looking at the 18Z Tue WRF and it even has the 540 Thickness line way out to our West and way South at 6Z Saturday.  Even though that there is another strong short wave diving down through the flow, I suggest that even with this model that has been the warmest outlyer, it will be difficult for that 540 line to get to our north or east. 

NAM Midday Fri less than 15

Now, the previously mentioned short wave diving down, I suspect that will represent our best chance for some decent snow for Sunday or so.  It’s too far out to say with any certainty but right now the 12Z ECMWF wants to to take the surface low almost right over the top of Louisville. Typically, the best snow would be to the north of the system so that’s pretty close.  Now, the CMC and the GFS prefers to keep the parent low well to the north with upper support swinging through over us.  That scenario would squeeze out some flurries or light snow but nice accumulations I would think would not be likely.  The GFS is actually advertising another short through the flow for Monday or Tuesday that would bring another chance for snow. 

NAM Fri Eve Still Below 15

So, the song remains the same…several opportunities for light snow from time to time but really nothing huge.  The story is the cold.  There is some indication that the big ridge out west will not really move but instead broaden in breadth.  This is the first indication that I have seen for a change and would mean warming conditions by next Wednesday.  I still think snow will be minimal. I had previously suggested 1-2 inches maybe at best over 84 hours with never that much on the ground.  Well, Monday night the temps were generally above freezing during the best precip, which wasn’t much.  Temperatures were in the 20′s by midday but only a few flurries fell.  So, the moisture will be limited ,the tracks of the clippers will most likely be too far north and we therefore can expect the cold to be the story.  Still think a low close to zero with some perhaps below zero on Friday morning…teens Thursday and Friday will be the best we can do…some folks perhaps in the low to mid teens.

A Brush With Success and a Brush with Snow January 7, 2009

Red Skelton Starred in "The Fuller Brush Man" The Epitome of Product Placement

Big Bad Wolf Was Unsuccessful Fuller Brush Man

On This Date in History: In January 1885, Alfred G. Fuller was born in Nova Scotia. He was the 11th of 12 children  and picked berries as a youngster for a penny a quart for a “neighbor” 3 miles away. He could earn as much as 30 cents in 12 hours.  He left home at the age of 18 and sought his fortune in Boston.  He was a rather shy young man but still took to the unlikely job of selling brushes.  Customers, being as they are, had complaints and often made suggestions regarding improvements to the brushes that he sold.  On this date in 1906, Fuller invested $65 (another source says $375) in equipment so that he might make improvements to his brushes.  He modified some items that he had in stock and even created some new brushes of his own design, based largely on the desires of the customers.  What a novel approach?  By creating brushes that people would buy instead of trying to get people to like the brushes that he had, Fuller began quite an enterprise.  Within a few years, Fuller had salesmen all over the country knocking on doors in neighborhoods using Fuller’s techniques of getting people to open their door to a salesman.  He based his sales organization on the principals he learned picking berries with his sales force working strictly on commission.  Fuller explained that if he had worked picking berries on an hourly wage, he would have eaten the profits.  I remember the “Fullerbrush Man” coming to our door quite often.  Alfred Fuller died in 1973 and by that time, you were more likely to find a “Fullerette” at your door rather than a “Fullerbrush Man.” 

Lucille Ball Starred As "The Fuller Brush Girl"

Part of Fuller’s success came from advertising.  At first he placed a want ad in the newspaper for salesman in Everbody’s Magazine and had thousands of responses.  So, he had a salesforce of about 270 but he needed to something more.  Way before anyone was using product placement in movies,  Fuller encouraged the use of his brand and one of his biggest early successes came when Donald Duck played the role of a “Fullerbrush Man” in a Disney Short.  Then Walt Disney had the Big Bad Wolf pose as a “Fullerbrush Man” in his version of The Three Little Pigs.  Soon,  the “Fullerbrush Man” was a household name and was welcome into the homes of millions of Americans…sorta  an early part of Americana.  In 1919, his company earned $1 million.  By 1960, his annual earnings grew to over $100 million.   (An unofficial company history)

He once read a biography of himself that said he had been fired from his first three jobs so he

Fuller Cross Promoted To The End as an Author

went into business for himself.  I’m not sure if that part is true or not, but Fuller remarked after reading that, “I guess its self-evident of why I became self-employed. I had no choice.”    Perhaps that is something for me to consider.  And what about the Fuller Brush Company?   It’s still in business, ready for the 21st century as you can now shop on-line, though I suppose you’ll miss out on the “Fullerettes.”  But, it just goes to show how humble beginnings can lead to big things from the dawn of one century, through a century of great techonological and cultural change into the modern time.  Alfred Fuller based his business on personal relationships and trust of his employees.  Perhaps it is for this reason that the Fuller Brush Company has survived when others have gone the way of the Enron.

GFS Calls For a Little Snow

Weather Bottom Line:

  Well, it looks like the computers are sticking to their stories.  The GFS and Canadian still want to turn our rain over to some light snow on Wednesday and perhaps some flurries on Thursday but nothing overly exciting though if it

NAM Calls For Almost Nothing

does happen, it would be during rush hour in the morning.  The ECMWF and UKMET also are on board with this solution.  All four are pretty cold by late Wednesday as well.  But, the NAM continues to want to really wind down the precipitation and by the time that it gets cold enough around here for snow, by then the NAM doesn’t have any precipitation at all.  It also does not drag down as much cold air.  I suspect that the NAM will end up being the odd man out but because it has such a small grid at this point, I would think that the snow amounts will be less than the bullish models suggest and probably not as cold.  I don’t want to speak for them but, my guess is that this is why the National Weather Service is only advertising a 60% chance for rain and or snow on Tuesday night and just 30% chance for snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Regardless….don’t get yourself all worked up for a snow storm cause we ain’t gettin one now and don’t look for any warm up any time soon.

Still Not Enthused About Snow December 1, 2008

There are a couple of things that seem consistent regarding snow fall. First off, it never seems to be a clear

NAM Monday AM Sfc

1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM1

cut case around here.  I’ve invented an idea that the same reason that Louisville is difficult to define culturally and geographically is the same reason that we are often on the edge of the winter stuff.  We’re sorta in between everything.  The other thing that seems to be a constant is that the first threat of snow in the area for a given season always creates a bunch of hub-bub, often that is not warranted.  Most of the time, the first snow would be a ho-hum event if it were in January or February but since it’s early on, then you get all sorts of wild predictions.

1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM

In this case, we’ve been pretty consistent as we tend to let the data dictate our

NAM Snow Totals Thru Tue

course rather than creating a headline and try to make the data fit the headline.    As I’ve said previously, we’ve had a consistent pattern of data with temperatures near the surface just too doggone warm.  Just about every indication is that we will not get to freezing overnight and will stay in the upper 30′s…maybe even 40 during the day on Monday.  It is awfully tough to have accumulating snow with ground temperatures above freezing. If it snowed hard enough you might get some accumulation on grassy areas but there is nothing to indicate such a heavy event.  The GFS continues to be the most bullish and even it has temperatures near the surface above freezing until about 10 pm on Monday night.  If we have accumulation, it would seem to me that it would be on Monday night and it would be in the .25″ to .50″ range.  If the roads are wet on Monday night, which they may be, then we may have some slick spots Tuesday morning.

WRF Snow Total Thru Tue AM

I know there are reports of predictions of “up to an inch” out there…but what does that mean?  If you get zero then the forecast is right.  While we may have recorded snow fall on Monday, I really doubt if there will be any accumulations.  As I said, its tough to do it when the temperatures on Sunday were in the mid 40′s and the air temperatures dont get below freezing until Monday night.  I don’t see how the ground can get to freezing.  The extreme northern and northeastern part of the viewing area will be more susceptable to accumulations but, again, it seems to me to be Monday night.  The forecast soundings out of Madison, IN aren’t much different than in Louisville. The accompanying graphics also support what I am saying.  The areas of pink on the snow total maps do not take into consideration the ground temperatures.

Its going to be cold this week except for a brief period in the 50′s on Wednesday.  Perhaps some other chances for nuisance light snow from time to time…but that’s about it. Keep your chin up though…winter hasn’t even started.  I want a big snow…remember, I’m from Texas so I want lots of snow..but this is not the time.  Kids…you’re going to school!

Supreme Court Justice Arrested, Still Looking for Fay and Northwest Passage Opens August 14, 2008

For the latest on Tropical Storm Fay, click here

If you are looking for the tropical stuff, look at the bottom. If you are looking for rain, look somewhere else than Louisville. Except for an errant shower on Thursday(be thankful if you get a shower), we will stay dry through the weekend with temperatures around seasonal averages and humidity levels slowly increasing but it’s still going to be pretty comfortable by Mid-August standards.

Arctic Ice Map

Arctic Sea Ice Still Melting: If you recall on these here pages we talked about the nitwit reporting about the possibility of the Arctic Ice melting and Santa Claus having to put on his swimming trunks.(Symon Sez-Just The Facts!) I ripped the AP reporter for grabbing a few statistics and putting them in the top of his story while burying the qualifiers and other opinions. At the time, I believe there was more sea ice up north than at that time last year. Well, the ice began melting pretty quickly in July, partly due to storms blowing in and breaking up the newest and thinnest ice. Like last year, the Northwest Passage is now open. But it’s pretty shallow so its not something that big ships can take. They take the more northern Parry Channel which remains clogged with ice. Last year, the Parry Channel opened up in mid-August and it’s possible that it may open again this year before the melting ends. Either way, it appears that Santa is safe. Why do I think that the AP will not run a story with a headline trumpeting the fact that the North Pole did not melt away. Here’s the complete story from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

National Snow and Ice Data Center Aug 11 report

On This Date In History: On this date in 1889, US Supreme Court Justice Stephen J. Field was arrested for murder making him the only member of that body ever arrested for such a crime. The story goes back to a divorce case in which Justice Field ruled that the marriage between Sarah Althea Hill and a wealthy mine owner was invalid and she therefore was not entitled to any portion of his wealth. And neither was her then current husband, David Terry, who like Field was a former California Supreme Court justice. The courtroom erupted into a brawl and Field ordered the couple jailed for contempt. The pair publically announced revenge on the Justice.

About a year later, Field and his bodyguard, US Marshal David Neagle, were riding on a train to San Francisco. Also on the train was Sarah and David Terry. At a stop in Stockton, California the Terrys spotted field in the station dining room. David went for Field while Sarah went back to the train. Dave slapped the Justice and Neagle pulled his revolver and told Dave to stop while identifying himself as an officer. David Terry started fumbling with his jacket. Neagle fatally shot David Terry as his wife came running up with a satchel holding a loaded gun. Neagle and Field were arrested on a murder charge.

California’s Governor ordered Field released and the case against Neagle ended up…in the US Supreme Court that ruled in a landmark decision that since Neagle was acting under federal authority, he could not be subject to California law. I suppose that is why no one ever asked the Texas justice system to charge the ATF agents with anything in the Waco/ Branch Davidian case several years ago. I suppose that Field probably recused himself from the case but it may be the only case in which a sitting Supreme Court Justice was actively involved in a situation that set a legal precedent.

12Z 08/13 NRL Track Invest 92L

So, What’s Up with the Tropics? Well, we’re still waiting on Fay to show itself. The NHC was so unimpressed with disturbance 92L that it cancelled the hurricane hunter for Wednesday. I suppose they are saving the taxpayers money on fuel costs. But, the satellite imagery looks fairly interesting and the intensity spaghetti model still has half of the 16 computers taking it at least to tropical storm level

Spaghetti Intensity 08/13

with a few going to the hurricane level as it moves into the Bahamas. The spaghetti tracks are all very similar but the other half of the intensity models are split with part taking it to tropical storm and back to depression status or keeping it as a depression or less. The other part take it to storm to depression and then back toward tropical storm status. The 18Z ETA was pretty bullish and makes it a hurricane in the Bahamas in 84

Spaghetti Track 08/13

hours. The GFS puts it in the same region as an open area of low pressure. I’ve attached all of the accompanying maps. BTW..the last two runs of the GFS wants to put a tropical cyclone of some intensity in the Gulf in two weeks….but we’re talking about two weeks and the rate of accuracy of models begins to deteriorate after two days, let alone two weeks. But, it will be fun to watch and see if that’s the case.

18Z NAM 08/13

18Z GFS 08/13 84 hours