Israel’s Submarine Mystery January 25, 2010

What Happened to This Submarine?

Click Image For more photos of INS Dakar's Final Resting Place

On This Date in History:  At the height of World War II, the HMS Totem was commisoned by the British Navy.  It was added to the submarine fleet and after the war, it was modified by adding about 12 feet to its length and removing some of its deck guns.    In 1965, the Israeli government purchased 3 submarines from the British, including the Totem.  In November 1967, the Israeli navy recommissioned the sub as the Dakar.  Sea tests were done near Scotland and the plan was have the underwater boat  travel to Haifa in Israel for an offiicial ceremony in early February 1968.  But, that never happened.

INS Dakar Before Leaving for Haifa

As the Dakar traveled undersea on its voyage to Haifa, i was instructed to radio daily its position.  As it moved through the Straits of Gibralter and entered the Mediterranean Sea, the captain asked for permission to arrive in Haifa on January 28.   All seemed to be on schedule when on January 24, the Dakar passed the island of Crete and reported its position.   Just after midnight on January 25, 1968 an additional signal was received from the Dakar.  But, when the scheduled report of its position never came on this date in 1968, it became apparent that something was wrong.  All day attempts were made to reach the submarine to no avail.  An international search and rescue operaton began.  For five days, naval assets from Greece, Turkey, Lebanon and the United States searched in vain.  Israel continued the search on its own before it too gave up hope on February 4.    A month later, Israel held a national day of mourning and declared all 69 members of the crew of the Dakar dead.

Click Image For More About Book Never Forgotten: The Search For Israel's Lost Submarine Dakar

But, Israel never stopped looking for them.  For 31 years they searched.  They were thrown off when in 1969, Arab fisherman found one of the Dakar’s emergency buoys.  In analyzing the buoy and the broken cable, experts determined that the buoy had been attached to the submarine for about a year before it broke loose.  They also determined that the stricken sub rested between 150 and 326 meters below the surface and was 50 to 70 miles off course.  Now, how they could be so certain of all that is beyond me and, as it turns out, they were wrong.  And because they were wrong, Israeli searchers looked everywhere except the most obvious.  Because of this “expert” report, they never bothered to check the planned route of the submarine.

Finally, in 1999, it was determined that it might be a good idea to track the planned route of the submarine and to check the area between the last known location and Haifa.  The wreck of the Dakar was found in May 1999 in 3000 meters of water.  It was ripped apart.  After a review, speculation is that for unknown reasons, the boat took on water on the night of Jan 24 1968.  It lost its trim and went into a dive.  When it reached crash depth, it imploded and the debris settled to the bottom about 15 minutes later.   The buoy probably broke away when the accident occured, which seems to have happened sometime between midnight and 3 am  January 25, 1968.  It is possible that the signal received was indeed a signal from the emergency buoy which was not able to surface properly as it was attached to 600 feet of steel cable that had broken from the boat. 

Dakar Memorial in Haifa

So, they found the boat and to this day, a Memorial Service to honor those lost on the Dakar is held annually.  Part of the conning tower of the Dakar has been placed at the front of a naval museum in Haifa as a permanent memorial.    But, this is a great example of man thinking that he has the technology to conquer all.  Because of the experts, for 3 decades, searchers looked in the wrong place and, in the end, all of their conclusions were wrong.  We should keep this in mind when we consider taking drastic measures simply because experts think that they have all of the answsers.  It also is an example of how common sense should never be dismissed by technology, calculations or anything else.  It is when analysts dismiss possibilities that bad mistakes occur. 

GFS claiming between 6 and 10 inches of snow by end of week

Weather Bottom Line:  The story remains the same.  Look for much colder conditions on Monday with the high of the day being just after midnight.  It will only be in the mid 30′s or so on Monday afternoon and in the evening we should start to see some snow showers, which will stick around through much of Tuesday but I’m not so sure that accumulations will be all that significant.  It should only be about an inch or so over 36 hours and the ground wont be cold enough.  Now, a potentially bigger story may unfold for the latter part of the week.  It will be dependent on where the storm tracks and how much cold air we have.  It would not be surprising to see 6 inches of snow.  Then again, we may have rain turning to snow.  Guess here is we get some rain and then some decent accumulations as most indicators show a pretty good looking snow event, though I’m not so sure at this point we can hang our hat on the 18Z GFS which wants to put 6-10 inches of snow over our area.  Hopefully, there wont be any ice, but no guarantees. Just keep in mind that late Thursday and especially Friday may be a bit dicey.

Giving Birth To 22.5 lb Tumor, Bedbugs and Snow December 13, 2008

Pretty Crowded Operating Room

 

Very Interesting Weather Ahead: Don’t get too worked up at this point but it would appear that a worst case

GFS Snow Total Forecast Through Tuesday Night(12/16)

scenario at this point appears to be an icy mess on Monday night and Tuesday morning and a best case scenario of at least some nice scenery.  The NAM calls for freezing rain and/or sleet early Tuesday morning…and that’s as far out as the model goes for now.  The GFS, the snow totals shown at right, shows freezing rain and/or sleet for Monday night but it goes out longer and turns it to snow earlier and then it continues snowing.  The GFS wants to bring several inches of snow, especially just north of Louisville, by the end of the day on Tuesday.  Now, we’ll still be chilly, but not as cold on Saturday and then a warm front lifts through on Sunday taking the mercury to the mid to upper 50′s in advance of the system diving down our way.  That will help open up the Gulf a bit and draw up moisture, which is where we will get precipitation.  In spite of the GFS optimism, its way too soon to be getting crazy and heading to the store for milk and bread.  But, at this point, there seems to be some agreement for icy conditions of some type on Monday Night followed by some amount of snow.  Potentially, it could be difficult and the situation should be monitored.

Mrs. Crawford Set To Give Birth To A 22.5 Pound Tumor

On This Date in History:  In the early 19th Century, only about one in ten doctors in America had formal training.  One guy was a bit different.  Ephraim McDowell not only apprenticed to a doctor in Virginia, but he also had further study in Scotland.  It was for this reason that two other “doctors” called him to help them deliver a pair of overdue twins.  So, he left his home in Danville, Kentucky and went to the backwoods cabin to find Jane Crawford.  McDowell quickly deduced that the two quacks had made  a terrible diagnosis.  The woman was not in labor but  instead it great pain from a 22.5 pound ovarian tumor!  Think of the lawsuit that would get today.

So, now McDowell was in a conundrum.  If he did not operate, Jane Crawford would die.  Conventional wisdom of the

Wonder if McDowell Stamp is Collector's Item?

day was that if he operated, she would die.  I suppose the Dr. McDowell figured he had nothing to lose and the only chance for the patient’s survival was surgery.  Word got out about the operation and some townsfolk were outraged.  They surrounded the doctor’s office on December 13, 1809 and tried to beat down the door.  Fortunately, it was more subdued inside, but not for Ms. Crawford who was to go under the knife without the benefit of any anesthetic beyond booze or opium.  To take her mind off the pain, Mrs. Crawford sang hymns, much like Orel Hersheiser used to do on the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Crawford ended up with her own perfect game as 25 days after the surgery, she was prounced completely healthy and she lived another 32 years.  Really incredible when one considers that at that time, no one had a clue about infection.  No word on if anyone ever went to the other two doctors for a baby delivery. But McDowell became so famous, the medical center in Danville, KY is named for him; there’s a museum  in his house that was designated as a historical landmark for you to visit with all sorts of information; and…his image was even on a US Postage Stamp.

"Shocking" For These Critters or for You?

Have you ever seen stories about people getting bedbugs at hotels?  I had always thought that bedbugs were just some imaginary things that parents used when they said, “sleep tight, don’t let the bedbugs bite!”  But, they are real.  And while they remain a problem in even a few of the nicer hotels in America, any reputable hotelier or flophouse concierge could solve their problem with an invention patented on this date in 1898.  Well, thats what the inventor claimed.

His name was Frank M. Archer of New York City, where bedbugs have been prevalent for years.  His great idea was to electrify a bed.  He put pairs of electrical contacts so close together that any insect passing between them would close the circuit and get electrocuted.  He surmised that the effect on the critter would be to ”either terminate its career at once or make it seek other locations.”   Other locations? Like where…the neighbors bed?  He also suggested metal electrifed  contact strips that could be attached to the bedsprings “which will so harass the bugs as to cause them to shun the bed entirely.”   If you look at the size of the bed bug, Mr Archer would have to have his contact awfully close together to work.  Furthermore, it seems like an electrifying nights sleep that may be worse than the bed bugs.

Still Not Enthused About Snow December 1, 2008

There are a couple of things that seem consistent regarding snow fall. First off, it never seems to be a clear

NAM Monday AM Sfc

1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM1

cut case around here.  I’ve invented an idea that the same reason that Louisville is difficult to define culturally and geographically is the same reason that we are often on the edge of the winter stuff.  We’re sorta in between everything.  The other thing that seems to be a constant is that the first threat of snow in the area for a given season always creates a bunch of hub-bub, often that is not warranted.  Most of the time, the first snow would be a ho-hum event if it were in January or February but since it’s early on, then you get all sorts of wild predictions.

1201 GFS Snow Total Thru Tue AM

In this case, we’ve been pretty consistent as we tend to let the data dictate our

NAM Snow Totals Thru Tue

course rather than creating a headline and try to make the data fit the headline.    As I’ve said previously, we’ve had a consistent pattern of data with temperatures near the surface just too doggone warm.  Just about every indication is that we will not get to freezing overnight and will stay in the upper 30′s…maybe even 40 during the day on Monday.  It is awfully tough to have accumulating snow with ground temperatures above freezing. If it snowed hard enough you might get some accumulation on grassy areas but there is nothing to indicate such a heavy event.  The GFS continues to be the most bullish and even it has temperatures near the surface above freezing until about 10 pm on Monday night.  If we have accumulation, it would seem to me that it would be on Monday night and it would be in the .25″ to .50″ range.  If the roads are wet on Monday night, which they may be, then we may have some slick spots Tuesday morning.

WRF Snow Total Thru Tue AM

I know there are reports of predictions of “up to an inch” out there…but what does that mean?  If you get zero then the forecast is right.  While we may have recorded snow fall on Monday, I really doubt if there will be any accumulations.  As I said, its tough to do it when the temperatures on Sunday were in the mid 40′s and the air temperatures dont get below freezing until Monday night.  I don’t see how the ground can get to freezing.  The extreme northern and northeastern part of the viewing area will be more susceptable to accumulations but, again, it seems to me to be Monday night.  The forecast soundings out of Madison, IN aren’t much different than in Louisville. The accompanying graphics also support what I am saying.  The areas of pink on the snow total maps do not take into consideration the ground temperatures.

Its going to be cold this week except for a brief period in the 50′s on Wednesday.  Perhaps some other chances for nuisance light snow from time to time…but that’s about it. Keep your chin up though…winter hasn’t even started.  I want a big snow…remember, I’m from Texas so I want lots of snow..but this is not the time.  Kids…you’re going to school!

The Teddy Bear Story, Cold Weather and People Living In Tents 2 Months After Hurricane Ike Worth More Attention than Snow Potential November 15, 2008

NAM: Mid to Upper 20's on Tuesday

This little “snow event” would be called a nuisance event at best were we in February. But, since it’s the first

NAM Snow Total thru 7AM Sun

time around, people take more interest. Jay’s been very good at being responsible, as usual, in that he has not been hyping this at all and giving it the proper analysis. The 00Z Saturday model runs are in and they continue to be pretty pessimistic on the snow. The NAM is the most bullish and it’s not too enthused. The extrapolated data puts out .06″ of precipition on Saturday night. But, in the 6 hour window between 7PM and 1AM, it goes from having the entire lower 1200 feet being above

GFS Snow Total Thru Sun AM

freezing and a surface temp of the upper 30′s to something below freezing at 1200 feet but still in the mid 30′s at the surface. If you generously assumed half of that as rain and then used an 8 to 1 ratio, then you get about a quarter inch of snow with surface temperatures above freezing and a ground above freezing. Even with those big assumptions you end up with a few flakes and thats about it. The GFS is less enthusiastic with much warmer conditions at all levels. Bottom line is keep the snow shovels in the garage. My sister-in-law likes to tell me what “it’s supposed to do” which means she heard it on the radio and assumes that everyone has the same forecast. She told me “it’s supposed to be a quarter inch.” That seems to be a stretch. You can see the less than favorability regarding snow from either model and the other models look similar. I suspect the bigger story for the next several days into next week will be the decidedly colder air. I changed my air filter today on my heating unit.

Hurricane Ike Update: You don’t hear anything about Hurricane Ike victims on the national scene but the

Lawn Decoration Courtesy of Ike Remains Two Months After Storm

estimate remains that Ike will be the 3rd costliest Hurricane in US history and hundreds remain missing. Here is a story that indicates that many people are not just living in FEMA trailers, some remain in tents 2 months after the storm. Read it HERE. Now ask yourself where the national press corps is on this story except for this lone AP reporter. Also, there is one town, Shore Acres. It is not even in Galveston County…it’s in Southeastern Harris County which is the county that is dominated by Houston. 88% of the homes there were flooded and half the people have not returned. Much of the area looks as it did the day after the storm. Here’s the story from the Houston Chronicle.

On This Date in History: President Theodore Roosevelt was an avid outdoorsman. He lived and traveled

Original Teddy Bear With a Bow

in the west and also established the national park system when he designated five areas as national parks. He later signed the Antiquities Act of 1906 that allowed he and his successors to claim certain sites, landmarks, prehistoric structures and other items as federal monuments. While he was a great advocate of conservation, he also was an avid hunter. On this date in 1902, he was on a hunting expedition in the Mississippi Delta. Having lived in Greenville, MS for a time, I’m familiar with the area and have seen the historic marker that marks what happened. He was on a bear hunt I guess the locals wanted to make sure that the president bagged some game. Some poor bear got chased by a bunch of hounds. Roosevelt came to find the bear, knocked unconscious and tied to a tree. He was expected to shoot it. He refused.

Here is another version. He was in Mississippi to settle a border dispute and decided to do a little hunting. A bear had killed a hunting dog and it was chased down. The animal was wounded when Roosevelt came upon it and ordered it killed for mercy. Still another story says that a small bear cub was brought to Roosevelt and he refused to kill it. When I lived in Louisiana they claimed that the bear was in that state…that may harken back to the border dispute.

Michtom's Original Teddy Bear in Smithsonian

Whatever…the story made the rounds along with a drawing. I’ve never heard the one about him ordering the mercy killing…I’ve alway heard the one where he let the bear live and the drawing supports that version. Entrepreneurs decided to take advantage. Brooklyn store owners Rose and Morris Michtom asked Roosevelt for permission in using his name for their marketing of a stuffed cute bear. Roosevelt agreed and the Teddy Bear was born. Another version of the story is that Margarette Steiff in Germany made a cute bear that was an instant international hit.

Here’s the bottom line. The Teddy Bear was inspired by some story about the 26th President of the United States and a bear. Between 1903 and 1911, millions were sold and the classic tradition continues to this day.