Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 12Z 10.03.09
For an Update on Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE
Typhoon Parma Satellite Image 1130Z 10.03.09
Typhoon Parma made landfall on the northeast coast of the the Philippines on Saturday. Typhoon Parma’s struck the Cagayan Province with the worst typhoon conditions in a decade, some officials said. Government officials were thankful that the storm wobbled a bit before landfall, although the damage is still extensive and there has been loss of life. While some reports say that Manila was spared, other reports say that Manila had heavy rain on Friday and Saturday and officials were not sure about additional flooding in and around the capital. I suspect that both reports are true. Manila was spared from the full impact but the backside of the storm’s flow is off the South China Sea which would bring bands of heavy rain from the west or northwest. And, it is probably true that local officials have no idea of the rain on the waterlogged areas around the capital will result in new flooding.
Typhoon Parma had maximum winds of near 175 kph (about 110 mph) at landfall which was sufficient to wreak havoc in the Cagayan provincial capital of Tuguegarao where reports of extensive wind damage have come in as well as flooding. The initial reports of three dead will likely be expanded.
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track
The official forecast track of Parma (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion) has some of the elements that I discussed in the previous post as the storm neared the coast. Parma will continue to bring rain to the northern part of the island as its forward momentum will slow down. However, the current thinking is that the storm moves along the track first forecast several days ago,which is more northward toward Taiwan. After doing so for a short time, the storm then moves a bit southeast and then loops back northeast. This movement southeast/northeast movement would be in response to Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) moving by to the east as it makes its way toward Japan. The forecast track has been very difficult for quite some time and the Taiwan government is taking no chances as that island nation is issuing warnings and evacuating some areas as a precaution, which is probably a pretty good idea.
On This Date In History: We’ve all enjoyed Thanksgiving Dinner and we all probably learned in grade school that the first Thanksgiving involved the Pilgirms and the native Indians of North America. But, the real first official Thanksgiving Holiday was proclaimed on this date in 1863 by President Lincoln, calling for an annual day of national Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday of November. The president used the opportunity to thank the Union Army for the reversal of fortune in the Union effort by the victory at Gettysburg. President Washington had declared a “national day of thanksgiving and prayer” in 1789, but it didn’t become an annual event. In fact, Thomas Jefferson thought that such national events of demonstration towards a deity was not appropriate. Other presidents agreed until President Lincoln’s decree. President Franklin Roosevelt tried what I call a political move in 1939 when he moved the holiday to the third Thursday. However, I suppose its plausible to argue that Lincoln’s initial declaration was rooted in politics. Anyway, FDR was hoping to extend the Christmas shopping season. I guess he thought that by moving Thanksgiving he could pull the wool over American’s eyes and use the psychology of calling a different day Thanksgiving to get them to spend more money. Anyway, Congress had enough of the foolishness and in 1941 put the national holiday back to where President Lincoln put it in the first place.
King Faisal 1st of Iraq crowned by Brits in 1932
On This Date in 1932
Iraq gained independence. The region had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire, which dissolved at the conclusion of World War I. Britain occupied the area and was given a League of Nations mandate to govern the region in 1920. They set up a monarchy and granted independence in 1932. That government maintained strong military and economic ties with Britain and that resulted in numerous protests. In 1941, a pro-Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) movement took hold and the UK intervened causing the Iraqi government to agree to back the good guys in the war. The monarchy got over thrown in 1958 and for the next 20 years, Iraq was ruled by a series of civilian and military governments until Saddam Hussein became dictator in 1979….a position he held until 2003. Saddam has since left to try to rule another world. However, from its 20th century history, its easy to see why there are skeptics that a democracy can flourish in the region. But, the global political situation is not as it was nor is the politics of the region so one cannot use history as a prescription for the future.
Weather Bottom Line: Great weekend in store. Highs in upper 60′s and lows in the 40′s. Rain chances return on Monday into Tuesday as the evolution of another system unfolds.
