The Oil Flows, The Caribou Are Fine and Big Muddy Keeps Rising June 20, 2008

These guys don’t worry about the weather and neither should you.  In fact, these guys don’t worry about the Alaskan Pipeline either, nor any oil drilling going on.  They seem quite content.  Snow White and I were content rowing up the river.  I had no intention of rowing all the way to 12-Mile-Island but before i knew it, we were there.   It was sunny and warm with light wind and humidity was low.  We can expect more of the same for the next several days.  On Thursday afternoon, a few thunderstorms popped up in the afternoon and activity like this will probably continue through the weekend.  They should be generally few and far between but if you find yourself under one, it could have a little bite with a heavy downpour and lightning with a risk for hail and gusty winds.  The long wave pattern will generally remain the same with little upper disturbances wandering down.  It’s really really tough to pick them out much ahead of time beyond just looking to see if they are there.  The models will put one in and the next model run magically makes them disappear.  But, I think it’s safe to say there will be some moving through the flow periodically.  That will trigger scattered to isolated t’storms, mainly in the afternoon. That’s why Snow White and I are rowing in the morning….though not as early as she would like.  I like to snooze.  The pattern looks to persist into the middle of next week as the sharp change reported yesterday may get pushed back a few days.

St. Louis flood photos-Here is a photo gallery out of the St. Louis Dispatch

St. Louis Dispatch Flood Photo Gallery

On This date in History they let the oil flow!  In 1968, a big oil field was discovered off the North Coast of Alaska at Prudhoe Bay.  There were a couple of problems.  First off, the area had to be opened up to drilling and the frozen conditions of the sea for most of the year made it impossible to reliably transport the oil from the region by ship.  The US had been the largest producer of oil in the world until 1970.  As Mid-East Oil production surged, old fields in the US decreased and so in 1972, the US Interior Department opened up the area for  exploration.  In 1973, there was an oil crisis caused by the embargo of exported oil to the US by many Arab nations.  Today’s problems are caused by prices; back then it was actual shortages of the raw material causing a spike in prices.  Anyway, the US hurried construction of an 800 mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Barrow, Alaska where it could be loaded on to ships.

In 1974, the major oil companies partnered up to build the pipeline.  Their biggest fight was with environmentalists.  Some complaints were that the caribou in the region would suffer and the permafrost would be damaged by a buried pipeline with warm oil.  So, the company elevated about half of the pipeline so that the caribou could pass and the permafrost would be unaffected.  They said it would pollute the waters of Prince William Sound that teemed with salmon.  The pipeline began flowing on this date in 1977 and peaked in the amount of oil provided around 800,000 barrels a day in 1988. 

In general, the environmental fears have been largely relegated to the ash-heep of history.  Well, I suppose the fear is still there but reality has been much less doom and gloom.   The Caribou have actually increased in numbers and that is trumpeted often by proponents of drilling.  But, they usually leave out the fact that much of the increase happened in the first years of operation because many predators like Grizzly Bears got scared away by construction.   Nevertheless, the Caribou are doing just fine and, from the pictures above, they not only don’t seem to mind the pipeline, they seem to enjoy the scenery around actually oil drilling operations. 

There have been two spills.  One was when a someone who was presumably an environmentalist who blew a hole in the pipeline.  Some 500,000 gallons of oil spilled on the ground near Fairbanks.  But, before you start thinking that the oil man has been a better friend to the Caribou and their friends than the environmentalists who think blowing up pipelines is a good thing…the Exxon Valdez ran aground on March 24, 1989 into Prince William Sound.  It was a huge disaster.  It was caused by human error but that is part  of the risk of oil recovery, production and transportation.   So opponents of drilling do have a leg to stand on.

Nevertheless,  this story illustrates how many of the concerns by opponents of production of America’s energy needs are often nothing more than scare tactics.  And that’s too bad because it obscures the more legitimate concerns.  But, we are in a bit of a quandary.  We need oil.  It is the most utilitarian and efficient source of energy we have.  In fact, the automobile was seen as an environmental lifesaver when it came about at the beginning of the 20th Century because it eliminated the disease prone and cumbersome wastes from animals in the cities.  By the 1960′s, the unintended consequences came about. 

There are all sorts of reasons why we need to find alternative sources of energy.  It may or may not be possible.  There are people trying.  But in the meantime, we need energy to live.  I heard a presidential candidate say that drilling for oil offshore or in Anwar wouldn’t reduce gas prices today so he’s against it.  What he didn’t say that development of alternative sources of energy won’t reduce today’s gas prices either. In fact, the Congressional mandate of ethanol from Corn has created all sorts of problems…more unintended consequences.  The Alaska Pipeline has a pretty good record.  So has the Gulf of Mexico drilling operations.  Pretty good isnt’ good enough and we should and can do better.  But, in doing so, we need new oil and gas sources until alternatives can be developed.  Had Anwar been opened up 8 years ago, there would be more oil on the market today and perhaps lower prices.  The Prudhoe Bay field was discovered in 1968, developed beginning in ’72 and on line with production in ’77.  It can be done.  It must be done.  There is no alternative not today, nor tomorrow…we have to wait several tomorrows and the only answer for now is oil, for better or worse.

Here is a link to a site that is hard to figure out.  Sometimes when I read it I think that it is operated from the far radical left…at other times it looks like something from the political right.  So, it may be a good balance.  I think some of you may find it a good read as well….interesting at least…and pretty controversial I’m sure.

OIL EMPIRE WEBSITE

Iowa Flooding Photos; Global Warming Q & A June 18, 2008

The weather around here is great, which means it’s lame.  Northwesterly flow with us within the longwave trof means the nice weather conditions continue until a little ripple in the flow, a shortwave or upper low, comes down and it would trigger some isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon t’storms, especially wherever it passes in the afternoon.  The one for around here is weakening and the SPC is losing interest. We’ve still got chances in the forecast which is correct, it’s just there’s not a huge chance for  anything worthwhile.  The timing of these little guys is difficult until they actually form.  For now, it would appear one comes through Saturday and another Sunday night or Monday morning. Otherwise, the weather is great. It will remain nice through the week and relatively rain free for most people.  Heat and humidity increase as the weekend goes on.  We’re a little more uncomfy by Monday, but we may back off a bit with a weak front Monday night.  Snow White and I went sculling Tuesday evening and in spite of the lower humidity and cooler temperatures, I’m still beat.  Age I guess. I couldn’t find anything interesting on this date in history so I’ve got some housecleaning that I hope you find worthwhile. The flooding pictures are amazing and the other discussion may be interesting to you.

IOWA FLOODING PHOTOS Here are some photo galleries from a couple of local papers regarding the flooding in Iowa.  Many rivers have gone higher than the all time records, some of which were set in 1993.  Keep in mind that we have been developing things at a rapid rate over the past several decades which means quicker run-off in many locations.  New housing developments, shopping centers, etc.  There are also dams and reservoirs and such that may not have been around earlier in the century.  So, it’s possible that the rains of days gone by may have been heavier but the flooding today is greater.  I’m not saying that this development is the cause, but  I am suggesting that it is part of the problem.  But, it really doesn’t matter if your house or farm has been flooded.  These pictures are difficult to imagine if you put yourself in their shoes.

Des Moines Register

Gazette-Cedar Rapids

MORE GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE….A QUESTION FROM A READER AND A HALFWAY ANSWER

Here was a question posed yesterday from Johnny b. It’s an interesting question that is probably above my paygrade. See, his question is one of those little things that troubles researchers and opens a whole can of worms for the Global Warming Enthusiasts. First, the question:

“Interesting that the lower troposphere is radically cooler, while surface temperatures seem to be increasing, huh? Seems like common sense and the knowledge that hot air rises would dictate that convection would be increased and the lower and mid tropospheres would increase in temperature as well. Got any explanation for that one other than “One data set must be wrong.” Since I am a lay nerd, I do not have the ability to invalidate any source so I must assume that they are both correct, but I do not understand how. Is there anything on Earth that could suppress convection around the entire world?”

Now, an answer.  On the one hand, people might say that all of the recent flooding is occurring because there is enhanced convection due to global warming.  A retort might be that there have been big floods in the past before anyone says global warming took place.  And what about Noah’s flood?  Maybe that was global warming and increased convection. 

As to the final question, I’m not sure that convection is being suppressed because I don’t think we have enough knowledge to make such a conclusion at this point.  When I started fooling around with Meteorology nearly 30 years ago, I was taught by my professor that prevailing wisdom was that El Nino happened every 7 years.  By the end of the 80′s, it had happened 3 times.  So much for that “fact” that was presented.  Truth is, research of El Nino hadn’t happened all that long before.  It hadn’t been too many years before that science even accepted that El Nino really happened.  But the Peruvians knew about it for 500 years and they coined the term El Nino.  They didn’t know what it was except that every so often, they couldn’t catch too many fish.  Same thing applies with hurricanes.  We’ve known about them for centuries but the first hurricane to be tracked by satellite was Camille in 1969.  The National Hurricane Center only consisted of 4 men.  We think we know so much about hurricanes now but we really don’t.  We’ve only been studying them in a detailed, computer driven way for about 50 years.  In the case of tropical weather, El Nino, La Nina, Global Warming and others we are just scratching the surface.  Oceanographers can’t tell us everything about the oceans because it hasn’t been explored.  When I was a kid, the dinosaurs died out because the meat eaters ate all the other non-meat-eaters and they eventually died out.  That was foolish but it was what was said.  Now, the story is that there was some sort of cataclysmic event that occurred and the giant reptiles died quickly.  Volcanoes, comet…asteroid..something. And, coincidentally, the result was said to be rapid climate change that cooled the earth and they died.  Having said all of that, in my view, it is not possible to be dealing in absolutes.  Just as it is wrong for Al Gore to say that the debate is over…we know all we need to know, it’s wrong to say absolutely the opposite and close the door the opposite direction.

In order to really answer the question one must know what is defined by the “lower troposphere.”  The troposphere goes to somewhere between 15km and 18 km.  What is the lower troposphere? 3km? 5 km?  One might say that the heating and cooling numbers are so small, that it won’t have an effect on lapse rates  in a real way.  But, if you had a hot surface and cool conditions in the lower 7km, and you have a steep lapse rate then you might expect free form convection.  But, there is a heating up stratosphere and what if radiational transport is bringing heat down to so 8 km?   Suddenly, there is a cap and convection stops with the inversion.  That would be a global suppression of convection.  I doubt that is happening either.  But, without more specifics of definition, it’s really not answerable.

Then again, as I mentioned, the question is ultimately beyond my paygrade and I’ve given some random thoughts.  Just like the enthusiasts tend to put out limited data to support their position and pretend that other data does not exist, I’ve seen bloggers out to prove the anthropogenic global warming naysayers correct by not reporting conflicting data.  But, the truth is the data does conflict.  You’ll find in this first link an allusion to your suggestion about wrong data.  Apparently, the answer from some is that the tropospheric cooling data is phony…somehow masked by the stratospheric warming that I mentioned.  I say nonsense.  That’s a cop out.  When you can’t explain something you look for an answer even if it may conflict with your worldview…that is unless your livelihood is based on that worldview.  No, a truth seeker would explore whether conflicting data may be corrupt and when it is found to be correct, then you look for the answer.  If one looks for an answer but when he finds it but doesn’t accept it because it doesn’t fit his preconceived notions so he moves on, what’s the point of looking?  They go on forever because they were looking for the answer they wanted and not for the truth.

The key here is the tropospheric cooling.  Why is there not more convection if the surface is warming?  Is there indeed more convection or is it the same?  How can one possibly make that determination without data from years ago?  If the surface is warming, why isn’t the lower troposphere?  Another consideration is that often these articles refer to averages.  If you look at the temperatures that said it was cooler in the winter, I thought I noticed that Antarctica had a warmer anomaly.  The global average was colder but the Antarctic was warm….Hmmm…what does that mean?

A long way to say I don’t know.   Here are some links that may help you try to draw some conclusions.  Just remember, politics, money, power and science are a volatile mix.

Stratospheric Cooling?

 

Comparison of Lower-Tropospheric Temperatures

 

This one will cost you money but may get at the heart of the question…or at least reveal that you aren’t the only one ponder the question at hand as to what is going on.

Reducing noise in the MSU daily lower-tropospheric global temperature dataset