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Fay 11pm NHC fcst track 0818
Tropical Storm Fay is rather interesting and perplexing. It is wandering slowly
Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0819
along the SW Florida Coast. It has actually dropped by a few millibars to 995 mb so technically its getting stronger though pragmatically its not changing much. The biggest bugaboo about this guy will be the rain. I’ve been telling you all along that it may prove to be quite beneficial in that it will bring a lot of rain to drought plagued areas. That seems certain. Only trouble is that eventually it may bring too much of a good thing. So many questions…The trof that has steered the storm northward may be breaking up somewhat and a ridge from the northeast building in. As I have stated, there were several models that wanted to take the storm to the northwest and I suppose they were picking up on the ridge building in and picking the storm up to the northwest. Some still have a variance of that forecast. Others seem to have picked up on that but instead,
Fay Spaghetti Ensemble models 18Z 0818
the ridge builds in a bit more gradually and so the storm drifts north into Georgia or maybe even off the Florida Atlantic coast and then stall it followed by a movement back to the west, either through the southern Dixie states or even back into the Gulf. The NHC on Sunday night were all for taking the storm rapidly north as the ridge built in. But the data changed dramatically and by Monday, they began backing off that as numerous models advertised a big eastern ridge building in. So, they slowed the storm on the forecast and each successive forecast stifled its northern track. See, for long term forecasts, the tendency is to trend toward a new solution rather than just make a huge jump from one forecast to another. So, now they take it to Jacksonville before starting to swing it west which is similar to what I think that the data supports. After looking at stuff all day it seemed to me that the storm goes up to the SE Georgia coast, sits there and slowly goes west filling Lake Lanier and the Okefenokee Swamp before phasing with other systems. Now the NHC has trended to a similar solution. However, this is very very difficult and if you want to go nuts, look at the spaghetti model and then if you want to get really dizzy, look at the spaghetti of the ensembles. This is tough and is stretching the limits of human ability.
Many of the scenarios are still in play due to all of the variables and “if this then that” stories, I think it is most likely that this system will be remembered by the rain totals. In academic circles it will be its track. If it comes back into the Gulf and gets new life, then that will be an interesting epilogue.
On This Date in History: In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose. On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to be a good boy and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote, he changed his vote, the amendment passed on this date in 1920, when the sun rose, women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb.
If you were in the White House of Lucy Hayes, the glass you lifted would have been the unleaded version. President Rutherford B. Hayes was no teetotaler but his administration followed that of President Grant whose White House had been assumed to be flowing with Whiskey. Hayes wanted to distance himself from the reputed Whiskey-soaked, scandal-ridden Grant and he had a wife, Lucy, who was big into the temperance movement. So, On This date in 1877, booze was banned at the White House and Lucy became known as “Lemonade Lucy.” The hired help though thought that they had put one over on the President and his wife.
See the chef made a “Roman Punch” part of the daily meal with a hollowed out orange filled with some sherbet-like concoction. Many a Senator was quite relieved when the tasted the brew because they were convinced it was filled with as much rum it could possibly hold. But, the president had the last laugh. Hayes wrote in his diary that he had ordered that the staff fill the punch “strongly with the same flavor that is found in Jamaica rum…There was not a drop of spirits in them!” Yes, indeed….quite the clever man that Rutherford B. Hayes. Too bad he wasn’t as clever in doing his job. After one term, the sitting president was unable to secure the nomination from his own party, losing out to eventual Republican President James Garfield. But, it’s a lesson to the kids…don’t ever think you can pull one over on the old man!