Tropical Storm Fay Depressed But Drenching Gulf Coast; Not the Only Game In Town August 24, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and other items of interest in the tropics, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

5 Day Rain Forecast Thru Thursday Night

Fay is now a Tropical Depression and its slow trek across the Gulf Coast continues and rain totals are becoming

0823 11PM Fay Forecast Track

reminscent of Hurricane Dora that took a similar track in 1964 and produced record flooding.   As of 8pm EDT, Tallahassee reported  a 24 hour rain total of 9 inches and it continues to rain.  To the east of Tallahassee, radar estimates go beyond 11 inches.  The Hydrometerological Prediction Center (HPC) has a 5 day outlook for a large part of the South Central Gulf Region to get some 10 to 12 inches of rain.  Much of the rain in Central Georgia will be less and will be

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 0824 00Z

welcome. Elsewhere, the potential for catastrophic flooding is ever increasing.  If you look at the rain fall prediction, you notice that the Ohio Valley gets about 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rain.  I suspect that we will see the best chances for welcome rain in Louisville on Thursday and Friday, but do not expect the extreme rain that will be occuring in the Dixie states as the storm ends up in Central Mississippi where the moisture will be bottled up for several days before stringing out ahead

0824 00Z Invest 95L Spaghetti Model

 of a front late in the week. 

While this is going on, there are two tropical disturbances.  One I have been monitoring and sharing for several days now, Invest 94L.  It is moving into the Carribean.  Many models

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0824

have it intensifying rather rapidly and the National Hurricane Center gives it a moderate chance for development.  On the one hand, the models have been advertising development for several days now and it has done nothing and has gone on a track much farther south than earlier indicated. In other words, the spaghetti models were all wrong.  However, when this many models move toward intensification, it deservers monitoring.  If you look at the bottom, you will see that the satellite imagery from early Sunday morning indicates that it looks to be coming together.  The other guy is Invest 95L and right now all data suggests that, even if it does develop, and it looks pretty decent, it has the probabilty at this time of being mainly a maritime concern.

Tropical Storm Fay Back Offshore; Invest 94L Still Out there; Technical problems August 23, 2008

Florida 7 day rainfall thru 12Z 0822

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

I’m having all sorts of problems with the server or its my operator error but the thumbnails are not enlarging for some reason. So, I’m going with the full size for now, even though you don’t get as full a graphic as

5 day rainfall forecast

otherwise. Fay has gone back offshore as I thought that it would, though, pragmatically that doesn’t change much except to just give it all the more time to have the core be close to the moisture source. Rain will be the big issue. The rainfall forecast for the Florida Panhandle to South Alabama according to the Hydrometerological Prediction Center is for around 20 inches. The NWS offices in that region are likening the event to Hurricane Dora in the 1960′s that followed a similar path, though I suspect that development will make things worse. I’m including at the bottom of the page the latest spaghetti models for Invest 94L. There is also Invest 95L out there. Both of these systems will need to be monitored but 94L is the closest.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC…EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY…BUT A POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE ABOUT 45 KT…SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER…AND WHILE WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS…SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7…AS FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED. AS A RESULT…FAY WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…ALABAMA…AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER…MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE AGAIN…AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO…WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE. BEYOND 24 HOURS…INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 29.7N 84.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.8N 85.3W 45 KT…NEAR COAST 24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.9W 45 KT…OVER WATER 36HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W 40 KT…NEAR COAST 48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 91.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 90.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Invest 94L Spaghetti track 00Z 0823

Florida Wants Tropical Storm Fay To Get Lost; Find the Lost State of Franklin August 22, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Track 5PM 0821

Tropical Storm Fay is pretty much following the script after several days of improvising on its own
Unfortunately, the storyline is for the storm to mainly move slowly around a big fat

Fay Spaghetti Model 0812 18Z

ridge of high pressure in the Northeast and that means a slow trek along I-10. From Jacksonville to Pensacola, the storm will crawl at 5 (maybe 10 mph) for the next several days. Rain totals will be extreme as the satellite imagery is quite impressive, indicating that it still has a good structure in that its outflow pattern remains generally intact. Already, the slow-poke Fay brought over 2 feet of rain to east-central Florida and now it will do the same for North Florida. If you click on the image to the left, you will find the 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) from the Hydrological Prediction Center. You will find a couple of areas that stand out….over 16 inches in

5 Day QPF Florida

North Florida and South Georgia while the Panhandle faces the prospects of up to 20 inches. For added measure, its possible that at least part of the large circulation of the storm may wander offshore in the Gulf for a time and that will help to at least maintain some energy to the point that it may regain Tropical Storm status after it weakens a bit.

For Louisville, we had hoped that the moisture from Fay would merge with a trof in the Mississippi Valley and get drawn around the high as a trof comes in from the Northwest and weakens the ridge, allowing for the moisture to come to the Ohio Valley. But, as had been mentioned before, there is the very real possibility that it gets stuck in northern Mississippi and rains itself out there, bringing no relief here.  The official forecast track and the spaghetti models are coming into alignment for this scenario. We are still hoping for some moisture to come around by midweek.   But, I suspect that the Dixie states will not hog all of the rain and they will share some with us eventually.

On This Date In History: In Colonial times, the Crown made the rules and in 1763, England decreed that no settlements be made west of the Appalachian mountains. Nevertheless, frontiersman refused to abandon their outposts…remember Daniel Boone was running around what is now Kentucky in the 1760s. In 1772, hundreds, if not thousands, of folks in the mountains of what is now eastern Tennessee formed the Watauga Association, mainly for defense against the Indians. When the Revolution came about, the used their expert aim with their long rifles to defeat the British at King’s Mountain, South Carolina. Their leader was John ” Nolichucky Jack” Sevier. After the Revolution, the state of North Carolina wasn’t any nicer to the region than the king had been as they taxed the Wataugans “grievously….without enjoying the blessings of it.”

In 1784, North Carolina offered to cede the Tennessee lands to the federal government but the Wataugans prepared for a convention on this date in 1784 which led to a vote to found the 14th state of Franklin. Even though the new “state” was named for him, Ben Franklin declined an invitation to visit but Thomas Jefferson approved of the move. They even elected John Sevier as Governor. But, they got a little ahead of themselves as only 7 of the 13 states agreed with Jefferson and the Constitution said that they needed 9 to gain statehood. Meanwhile, back in Raleigh, the state of North Carolina took their western lands back and arrested Sevier as a traitor! The state of Franklin continued to operate on its own until North Carolina gave in, pardoned Sevier and forgave the settlers back taxes. Franklin became part of the Tennessee territory and when the territory was admitted to the Union in 1796, Sevier was elected its first Governor.

The folks in Eastern Tennessee maintained their independence though. During the Civil War, the mountain folks of East Tennesee remained loyal to the Union and proved to be a real thorn in the side of the Confederacy, much as they had to the King and to North Carolina. If the US was ever invaded, I have thought there were parts of the country that would never be conquered and Eastern Tennessee is near the top of my list.

Tropical Storm Fay I-10 Bound August 21, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Fay Forecast Track 0821 11AM

In general, nothing has really changed except the official forecast track has Fay

doing pretty much what the large scale pattern would suggest and which I have been

0821 Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z

suspecting would happen and that is for the storm to run mainly along or south of I-10. As I mentioned in previous posts, because Fay was so slow moving NNE across Florida, it didn’t get that far into the Atlantic and allowed for time for the high to build in and force it back west before it got too far north. The official forecast even has it going back over the Gulf for a time. I don’t see anything that will alter this track and so we should be seeing the end of Fay. But, the track takes it to north Mississippi. If it doesn’t get picked up and brought into the Ohio Valley, the moisture from Fay may prove too much for the Magnolia State. Hopefully North Georgia will get into some of the action. North Florida and South Florida will get a fair amount of rain and it should wind down in Central Florida where they have gotten over 2 feet of rain in some areas around Melbourne and Cape Canaveral. Here is the 11AM NHC Fay Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER…FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER…FAY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE…FAY SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST…AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT…CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST…A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET. NEVERTHELESS…THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.3N 80.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 81.6W 50 KT…INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.8N 84.0W 30 KT…OVER WATER 48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 90.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Fay The Rainmaker; Invest 94L Lurking August 20, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and other items of interest in the tropics, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Official NHC Fay forecast track 5pm 0820

Fay is behaving badly, but not unexpectedly. I told you several days ago that I

Fay Spaghetti model track 18Z 0820

figured that the legacy would be heavy rain and that is bearing out.  I had thought though that it would be about 75 to 100 miles farther north, and that may still bear out.  It slowed so much over the peninsula that while it was dawdling, the ridge was building in.  Now, it will start to be influenced from the ridge in a place farther south than the previous official forecast.  While the official track takes it slowly across north Florida and to the northwest, it is not totally out of the question for the storm to move west and re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico before swinging back to the west-northwest and northwest.  It still has a pretty good looking structure on satellite and pressures started dropping and winds increasing the second it got offshoe, but the official forecast is for it to run out of time and stay below the hurricane threshold before moving back ashore.  While the general scenario is becoming relatively clear and it will continue to be a big rain maker with winds having a marginal effect except for the occasional tornado, the exact track over the next 48 hours is still beyond the ability of mankind.  You can tell the level of uncertainty in that the “cone” is actually a giant circle on the official forecast track. Here is the discussion from the boys at the Melbourne office of the NWS.  Hydrometeorological models indicate that 30 inches of rain could fall in some areas.  The map above is the late afternoon storm totals of the region.  Some areas northwest of Melbourne have received over 24″ of rain and Melbourne had officially received over 16″. 

DISCUSSION…

…EXTREME FLOODING DANGER CONTINUING IN SOUTH BREVARD…
…TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED!!!…

TONIGHT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
AND ACCORDING TO THE WIND TOWERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL…THE CENTER WAS
JUST ALONG THE NORTH SIDE AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER…A CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONTINUED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS ARE
BEING MEASURED IN FEET…WITH ONE REPORT IN NORTH MELBOURNE OVER 24
INCHES AND SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS AROUND MELBOURNE AT 16-18 INCHES.
THESE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EASILY RECORDS AND WILL TURN OUT TO BE
HISTORICAL FOR THE LOCAL AREA.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER ANTICIPATES STORM TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IN
SOUTH BREVARD…ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE…AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

Tropical Disburbance 94L:  It is important to note that the National Hurricane Center is not showing

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0820

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 18Z 0820

much enthusiasm for this feature at this time, making statements that slow development is possible. The Spaghetti models above continue to indicate a motion taking it north of the islands.  However, it is interesting to note that the spaghetti model intensity graphs continues to show some models wanting to take it to hurricane status, with a few even to category II.  It will be interesting to see how this guy develops.

Tropical Storm Fay Spends Too Much Time With Mickey and Goofy August 20, 2008

For an Interactive Radar to track Fay click here.

08/20 NHC Fcst Track NRL Graphic

Fay’s slow movement continues and because of that, it spent too much time at

08/20 Fay Spaghetti Track Model 12Z

Disney World. It’s slow pace not only weakened it further but will utltimately help to limit its time back over water as the ridge is building in. In general that takes the chances of it becoming a hurricane off the board. Though they discount the possibility, the fact that the NHC mentioned that Fay may return to the Gulf leads me to believe that they have considered the same scenario that I outlined in a previous post. Here is the NHC discussion for 11AM.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO THE CYCLONE’S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH…ABOUT 3 KNOTS… WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE…SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO THE CYCLONE’S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH…ABOUT 3 KNOTS… WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE…SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Fay Ready To Re-Emerge In The Atlantic…and Then Re-Intensify? August 20, 2008

Use this National Interactive Radar (Click Here)to navigate to Fay’s location. You can make a radar loop of fay by hitting “animate” add clouds, see analysis that will show what direction and speed the individual cells are moving as well as indicate if there is any potential tornadic activity. You can also put in watch boxes. It defaults to the Ohio Valley but its easy to slide to Fay or anywhere else you want to look.

Naval Research Lab NHC Fay Fcst track 0819 11pm

My general thinking has not changed much and neither has the thinking of the NHC. If you look at the spaghetti model chart for Fay, you can see why. There isn’t a whole lot of difference between the 00Z run and the 18Z run. If you want to know what I was thinking, look at the previous posting on Fay, just before the one on Mr. Fisher. The intensity graph hasn’t changed much either but you can refer to that if you want to determine what the NHC is talking about in the discussion. On a side

Invest 94L Spaghetti model track 00Z 0820

note, the tropical disturbance, aka Invest 94L, still has the same general track of the models as previous runs. The track graphic supplied by the Naval Research Lab was not available. The NHC had been issuing pessimistic reports for 94L but the last two have provided more wiggle room for development. You will notice some very erratic tracks on the map. That tells me that the models don’t have a very good handle on this system yet. Here is the National Hurricane Center Fay Discussion for 11PM Tuesday:

Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0820

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 AFTER FAY’S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY…THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED…WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT…AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0820

BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OF COURSE…THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER. RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO…AND THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK…OR 030/4. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT…INLAND…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Fay, Febb and Lemonade Lucy August 19, 2008

For a more recent update on Fay, please click here.

Track Tropical Storm Fay using this National Interactive Radar(Click Here). Navigate anywhere in the country to street level if you like. Hit “animate” to loop the image. It updates about every 5 minutes.

Fay 11pm NHC fcst track 0818

Tropical Storm Fay is rather interesting and perplexing. It is wandering slowly

Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0819

along the SW Florida Coast. It has actually dropped by a few millibars to 995 mb so technically its getting stronger though pragmatically its not changing much. The biggest bugaboo about this guy will be the rain. I’ve been telling you all along that it may prove to be quite beneficial in that it will bring a lot of rain to drought plagued areas. That seems certain. Only trouble is that eventually it may bring too much of a good thing. So many questions…The trof that has steered the storm northward may be breaking up somewhat and a ridge from the northeast building in. As I have stated, there were several models that wanted to take the storm to the northwest and I suppose they were picking up on the ridge building in and picking the storm up to the northwest. Some still have a variance of that forecast. Others seem to have picked up on that but instead,

Fay Spaghetti Ensemble models 18Z 0818

the ridge builds in a bit more gradually and so the storm drifts north into Georgia or maybe even off the Florida Atlantic coast and then stall it followed by a movement back to the west, either through the southern Dixie states or even back into the Gulf. The NHC on Sunday night were all for taking the storm rapidly north as the ridge built in. But the data changed dramatically and by Monday, they began backing off that as numerous models advertised a big eastern ridge building in. So, they slowed the storm on the forecast and each successive forecast stifled its northern track. See, for long term forecasts, the tendency is to trend toward a new solution rather than just make a huge jump from one forecast to another. So, now they take it to Jacksonville before starting to swing it west which is similar to what I think that the data supports. After looking at stuff all day it seemed to me that the storm goes up to the SE Georgia coast, sits there and slowly goes west filling Lake Lanier and the Okefenokee Swamp before phasing with other systems. Now the NHC has trended to a similar solution. However, this is very very difficult and if you want to go nuts, look at the spaghetti model and then if you want to get really dizzy, look at the spaghetti of the ensembles. This is tough and is stretching the limits of human ability.

Many of the scenarios are still in play due to all of the variables and “if this then that” stories, I think it is most likely that this system will be remembered by the rain totals. In academic circles it will be its track. If it comes back into the Gulf and gets new life, then that will be an interesting epilogue.

On This Date in History: In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose. On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to be a good boy and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote, he changed his vote, the amendment passed on this date in 1920, when the sun rose, women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb.

If you were in the White House of Lucy Hayes, the glass you lifted would have been the unleaded version. President Rutherford B. Hayes was no teetotaler but his administration followed that of President Grant whose White House had been assumed to be flowing with Whiskey. Hayes wanted to distance himself from the reputed Whiskey-soaked, scandal-ridden Grant and he had a wife, Lucy, who was big into the temperance movement. So, On This date in 1877, booze was banned at the White House and Lucy became known as “Lemonade Lucy.” The hired help though thought that they had put one over on the President and his wife.

See the chef made a “Roman Punch” part of the daily meal with a hollowed out orange filled with some sherbet-like concoction. Many a Senator was quite relieved when the tasted the brew because they were convinced it was filled with as much rum it could possibly hold. But, the president had the last laugh. Hayes wrote in his diary that he had ordered that the staff fill the punch “strongly with the same flavor that is found in Jamaica rum…There was not a drop of spirits in them!” Yes, indeed….quite the clever man that Rutherford B. Hayes. Too bad he wasn’t as clever in doing his job. After one term, the sitting president was unable to secure the nomination from his own party, losing out to eventual Republican President James Garfield. But, it’s a lesson to the kids…don’t ever think you can pull one over on the old man!

NHC On The Money With Tropical Storm Fay Track So Far August 17, 2008

For a more recent update on Fay, Click Here

AS FAY MOVES CLOSER TO THE US AND IN THE RANGE OF RADAR INSTALLATIONS YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TRACK ITS APPROACH WITH THIS NATIONAL INTERACTIVE RADAR THAT ALLOWS THE USER TO ZOOM IN TO STREET LEVEL AND LOOP THE IMAGE, AMONG OTHER THINGS. CLICK HERE AND CLICK ON THE INTERACTIVE RADAR WHEN YOU GET TO THE SITE.

Fay NHC Fcst Track Graphic 11pm 0816

Tropical Storm Fay is progressing as the expected. So far the National Hurricane Center is doing a great job and now the models are coming into

Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0817

closer agreement as to its future. Let’s hope they aren’t popping the champagne corks just yet because there are still a lot of variables at play but the time is drawing near when it will show itself. The agreement with the models is for the storm to skirt along the southern Cuban coast and then turn up the western edge of the Florida Peninsula. There are variations. 6 of the 15 models make it a hurricane. The official forecast takes it to 80 mph before landfall near St. Petersburg Florida. There is a trof across the SE to the Gulf coast that conventional wisdom would hold would work with the coriolis force along with the perifory of the ridge that is steering Fay to turn the storm out to sea. But, if you look at the spaghetti model tracks you see at least two models wanting to take the storm across the Florida Panhandle up into the Ohio Valley. We are not anticipating rain in Louisville as, for the reasons listed above, it seems improbable.

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0817

Obviously the

Fay NRL Track Graphic 11pm 0816

NHC agrees as do most other models. That would have to be a pretty good ridge set up to make that happen. In any event, its out there. One would think that the most likely scenario down the road would be for it to turn back to sea after bringing needed rain to the SE. But, I’m getting ahead of the game as I am talking about 5 or 6 days out and that’s not too wise. Other than that, the song remains the same. A note though….if you look closely, you will find a good number of the models in this latest package have the storm staying just off the west coast of Florida before it runs into the swamplands east of Tallahassee. Should that happen, it would increase the liklihood of it being a more formidable storm. The more time over water, the better chance for intensification and I think the only thing that will stand in this guy’s way from getting going is interaction with land. I’ve added the Navy Research Lab version of the track because it includes more specific cities more clearly as well as time marks. Here is the NHC Discussion from 11PM Saturday August 16.

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN
FACT…GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY…AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER…THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES…AND
IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS
A HURRICANE…BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS
INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS
TRACK…FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY…AND MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS…WHICH IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THIS TRACK…WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 50 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA