The Grifon Did Not Sink But Peter Benchley Gains a Script Anyway July 31, 2010

The Grifon from "The Deep" Was Real and So Was Bisset

Shaw Keeps His Eyes Forward

On this date in 1715, the French ship Grifon survived a hurricane off the coast of Florida. “So what,” you ask?Well, first off when the Spanish came to the new world they were looking for booty and plunder. They wanted to exploit the region for its natural resources and send it back to the king in Spain. So they would gather up all of their gold and trinkets and send them back on ships, usually in a convoy to protect against pirates. The Spaniards were rather formidable in those days and so it was suicide for any marauding pirates to try and take on a fleet of ships. On this date in 1715, 10 Spanish ships and one French ship made its way through the Straits of Florida. 

Shaw wasn't making up the stuff about the Griffon

The flotilla rounded the Florida peninsula in order to follow the Gulf Stream back to Europe.  As it made their way up the east coast of Florida,  the entire fleet ran into a hurricane. Some sources say the fleet hit the hurricane on July 30, 1715 and I suspect the difference is that the ships went down on the night of the 30th or early morning of the 31st as this account implies.    In any event, for some reason, the French ship sailed farther off the coast from the Spaniards. The Spanish ships, filled with hundreds of tons of gold and silver, sunk. Some estimate the value of the treasure in 1975 dollars was about $86 million.  But,  the French ship survived. That French ship was the Grifon.

Painting of 1715 Ship Wreck

The sinking of the Spanish fleet in 1715 was one of the worst of Spain’s New World ventures in terms of lives and treasure lost.  Over 1000 men went to the bottom with the 10 ships and the crown lost over 14 million pesos.  Maritime historians that the ultimate cause of the disaster beyond the hurricane was that the Spanish had a habit of over loading their galleons and speculation is that was the case with the 1715 Spanish fleet.   News of the disaster reached Havana and Spain quickly dispatched ships for salvage operations.  A good bit of the treasure was located in waters shallow enough for breath-holding divers to gather a large number of coins.  The salvage operations took several years to complete and the Spanish built a small store house on the edge of a small island to house the treasure until it could be taken back to Spain.  But, British freebooters caught wind of the operation and in 1716, a bunch of ships under the charge of Henry Jennings raided the island and made off with 350,000 pesos.  Undeterred, the Spanish resumed salvaging until they had gotten all that they could get in 1719. 

A Famous Scene from "The Deep"

If you remember the movie The Deep then this ship is familiar to you. Its the ship that Robert Shaw decided had survived but later came back and may have sunk. I’ve provided a script from the scene below. But anyway, there are two things that come to mind from this. First is that Peter Benchley did a fabulous job of basing his fictitious tale on accurate history. I was very surprised that there really was a Grifon that really was the only ship to not sink in a hurricane. The other thing is that about 80% of that gold was recovered by the Spanish by 1719 but the rest did not come back to the surface until the mid 1960′s, which makes me wonder how much of Benchley’s script was really ficticious. Speaking of scripts, if you can take your eyes off of the photo of Jacqueline  Bisset, you can read the script from The Deep, here.

Weather Bottom Line:  Morning rain should give way to cloudy skies.  I doubt if we get to 90 today.  But, the warm front will slowly lift north and we will become hotter and more humid again.  Look for scattered showers and t-storms for a couple of days and then a big fat ridge noses up from the Southwest which will limit rain chances and take our temperatures back into the mid to upper 90′s probably beginning on Tuesday.

Anastasia Mystery Officially Solved But Doubts Remain July 16, 2010

The Romanov Royal Family

On This Date In History: The Romanov Royal Family in Russia met its doom. Czar Nicholas II was put in a bad spot as he was not really trained to be the Czar. He took the throne in 1896 and was pretty aloof; detached from the needs of his subjects. He committed the nation to an ill-advised war war with the Japanese in 1904.  The Russo-Japanese War ended pretty quickly with the Russian fleet annihilated quickly following a naval battle north of Japan.   

Execution Took Place in This Cellar

About a decade later Russia, like other European countries, was bound by a series of complicated alliances that took Russia and much of the rest of Europe into World War I with an army that was completely ill-equipped for modern warfare. They had lots of guys but they were more suited for a war in 1814 instead of 1914.   The people had gotten angry in 1905 and forced the Czar to create the Duma, a form of Congress. But he kept on dissolving the Duma whenever it came up with some sort of reforms. The war effort was denying the people basic necessities and Nick’s subjects became even angrier to the point of revolt though Nicholas remained oblivious to the people’s needs and their unrest.  So, in 1917 the Russian Revolution broke out. In July 1918 they captured the royal family and on this date in 1918, the family was lined up for a photograph and then gunned down.  A pit was alleged to have been dug and the bodies tossed in an burned.

Anna 1953, Anastasia 1916

Rumor was that the whole family was killed except for Anastasia, the young daughter. During the 20th century, several women showed up in Europe and even the United States claiming to be Anastasia. The most convincing of these Anastasias was a woman, Anna Anderson, who moved to the United States and died there in 1984. The gravesite for the family was a state secret during the time of the Soviet Union.  But, with the end of communist rule the secret was revealed.  In 1991, the bodies of the Royal Family were exhumed from their supposed grave near the town of Ekaterinburg only to find that the mystery was not solved.  The grave of the Romanovs only had 5 bodies, not 7;  two were missing.  The missing bodies were that of the young male Romanov, Alexi Nikolaevich and one of his sisters.  It was assumed that the missing girl was Anastasia.   The bones in the grave were examined and  DNA comparisons between Anna Anderson and the Royal Family proved she was not Anastasia.  On July 17, 1998 a funeral was held for the 5 members of the Romanov family that had been found, almost exactly 80 years after they were killed.   In January 2008, scientists in Russia claimed that they a few months before had found the charred remains of two children near Ekaterinburg.  In April 2008, forensic experts claimed that they had confirmed that the remains were that one of  Alelxi and one of his sisters.  In March 2009,  apublished report  verified that all of the Romanov family had been identified and no one had survived the execution.  Case close, right?  Not exactly.

Only the Remains of 5 of the Romanov Family was Initially Found; Why would they kill all 7 and then not bury two children with the rest of the family?

I wonder why the executioners would not put all of the bodies together.  It also seems quite convenient that two sets of charred remains just happen to show up near the grave site.  But, my musings aside, a Stanford University study released in 2004 questions the original assertion that the 5 sets of bones unearthed in 1991 belonged to the Romanov family to begin with.  That would throw everything up in the air, including the claims of Anna Anderson.  When news of the Stanford report hit the press, it caused somewhat of a stir among the scientists who had concluded that the case was closed.  After all, part of the premise was that the investigation was flawed and that called into question the integrity and ability of the original scientists.   It always seems that these conspiracies live on forever.  Whenever a credible person produces evidence for one side of a story, another credible person counters the previous credible evidence.  And then there are always unanswered questions such as why the two children were not buried with the rest or how the rumor of Anastasia’s survival even came up in the first place.  I guess the saddest part of this sort of thing is that some folks spend most of their lives trying to disprove or prove points related to issues that really make little difference.  Beside that, if the absolute truth of Anastasia were to be of total certainty, then the events in 1918 would not be nearly as interesting and perhaps forgotten.  One thing Anna Anderson did do was to keep the memory of the murder of the Romanov family alive for nearly a century.

Rain heaviest in Southern Indiana

Weather Bottom Line:

  On Thursday night there were a couple of shortwaves out to the west that were approaching the area.   As they wound down, the also slowed down over the western parts of the viewing area and rained themselves out to the tune of 1-3 inches over places like Crawford and Dubois County.  I had figured that was the rain chance for our area on Friday and, sure enough, by midday you could tell that there was very little in the way of vertical development of the clouds which indicated that there was a suppression going on and that rain chances would be limited.  As I looked at the morning analysis, that was also the front so temperatures and humidity will be limited on Friday, though it still will be pretty warm.  The front doesn’t get far and also more or less washes out to our south over the weekend.  However, it should provide enough instability to give us some isolated or maybe scattered t’storms for the weekend.  Highs will be in the low 90′s with somewhat humid conditions but nothing too extreme.

Peace Conference, Kentucky Derby Forecast Look All Wet April 28, 2010

This Outfit for Man and Horse Was Required for World War I But You May Need Something Else For Kentucky Derby 136

Click Image to See If There is Anyone You Know

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915 World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world. 

Aletta Jacobs

 One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation.   Later, this conference led to the creation of other groups including the Womens’ International League for Peace and Freedom.

This Banner At the Hague Really Made a Difference in 1915

What Did More To Bring an End to America's Involvement in Vietnam? John and Yoko sitting in bed giving peace a chance or Nixon bombing North Vietnam back to the negotation table?

People like these women meant well and their underlying notion has practical merit.  After the 30 Years War, Europeans came up with the Peace of Westphalia which was reached with everyone taking an eye toward balance of power.  The war had taught them that little was accomplished and the weaponry and methods of the day resulted in such destruction to the economy and people that war was becoming too costly to consider as a viable means of settling conflict.  But a condition of mankind seems to be one of violence and so ideals, regardless of their merit, tend to be squashed by reality.  These ladies seemed to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves would do anything when in fact, it did nothing.  Action requires boldness.  

The Great Seal of the United States of America

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace.  

You Tell'em, Teddy!

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to dissuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action.  The US achieved freedom through action.  Peace is ultimately achieved through action.   The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here: 

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.” 

I Told You So! (at least I think so)

Kentucky Derby 2010 Forecast: For several days I’ve been telling you about the potential for some interesting weather for Derby Day. I saw some local TV guys have a 30% chance for rain and I said how I wasn’t sold on that. Often when there are big events, forecasters tend to “wish cast” which would be making a forecast based on what they want it to be instead of what the data suggests. In this case, some models had the system slow and another fast. The slow model would result in a better Derby Day forecast and so many people chose that. Better to be the bearer of good news. I had surmised that the truth would probably be in between with rain likely on Saturday and strong storms possible. For now, it may be worth bringing out Colonel Klink and also for you to prepare for rain, though I do not think Churchill Downs allows umbrellas. But, you can place your bet on your favorite mudder. See details below.

SPC Outline of Area for Severe Storm Potential on Derby Day

GFS Has Heaviest Rain (1.5") Early Saturday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  After a chilly Wednesday start, we get into a warming trend starting today as high pressure in Louisiana moves to the east.  That will result in a SSW flow set up and create warm air advection as well as increase moisture from the Gulf.   The European model had been holding everything back such that it was possible that the next storm system didn’t get here until Sunday or even Monday.  But the GFS consistently brought it out much faster.  The GFS solution would have messed up both the 136th Kentucky Oaks on Friday and possibly the 136th Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  I had been looking for an ultimate outcome of something in between, meaning that I expected that Oaks Day would be partly cloudy, warm and breezy with a fair amount of rain on Derby Day with t’storms. I kept looking for severe weather on Saturday but the models weren’t all that committed.  At this time, the data is supporting my hypothesis except that now the models are more bullish on the severe potential and the Storm Prediction Center has jumped on board.  

NAM Initializes Rain Event Saturday morning

Yesterday, I mentioned that all we needed was a “kicker” to ignite the unstable atmosphere and we’d have an increased potential for severe weather on Saturday.  The GFS was throwing out about 2 inches of rain for Derby Day.  It would seem that now we do indeed have all the ingredients for not only excessive rain but also strong storms.  Basically, the main low makes its way to the Great Lakes but another low comes out of Northern Mexico into S0uth Texas.  That sets up a long frontal boundary from North to South with the boundary just to our west.  There will be ample southerly flow providing an influx of moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.  The low to the south will tend to slow the front down.  It will also tend to throw off pieces of energy.  

Canadian Advertises over an inch of rain Saturday Afternoon

So, we have a set up with a stalled front that will result in consistent rain and then a low tossing out energy that will run up along the front and produce a risk for severe weather as it moves NE along the boundary.  The GFS has backed off its rain plans on Friday though the NAM does want to try to increase chances.  I still think that Oaks Day will generally be fine unless a stray shower or t’shower moves over Churchill Downs.   Saturday though looks tough.  I also think that the rain chances will stay pretty high through Sunday.  Of course, this is Wednesday and things could change with regard to timing but so far, the data is generally coming more in line with what I had thought would be a likely scenario which was the one that made the most sense to me, regardless of what the models were saying.  And you know what…the weather always does what it will do without consulting the computers to find out what its supposed to do.  I would have a concern that the folks that got slammed by twisters last Saturday will be facing the potential for another round.