Delayed Deliveries Bring Fuel Shortage To Haiti April 21, 2010

Haitians Crowd Trying to Get Small Supply of Fuel

Louisville Edge Outreach settled down in Port-au-Prince, Haiti and started the groundwork to setting up water purification systems at the Red Cross. Edge group found two large bins that they will be using to purify the water near the Red Cross. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 20, 2010

When I was in college studying journalism, there were several practices that were preached.  After entering the real world, I found that the preached practices were often, in fact, not practiced.  One of those was the idea of follow-up.  This is especially true with television.  Back in January, Haiti was rocked by a devasting earthquake.  However, it seems after the body counts were complete the press left.  Now we get an occasional story in which the reporter will do “people stories” relating to the plight of individuals, but, rarely is there a story relating to the overall condition of the country.  I had written about a member of a group called Edge Outreach who moved his entire family to the Dominican Republic (DR) for the purpose of developing wells to bring clean water to remote locations in the DR.   When the earthquake struck, he immediately traveled to Haiti and Edge Outreach began digging wells to bring clean water to Haiti.  

A More Orderly Line of Haitians Trying to Get A few Gallons of Fuel

A couple of days ago, he said that the DR had an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 and said that there had been some deaths.  I have been unable to confirm that report except that, indeed, there was a 5.1 earthquake in the Dominican Republic but that it was centered 86 km below the surface, or about 53 miles, which is so deep that one would not expect any exceptional effects on the surface.  He went to Haiti the next day and, upon his return, found that there was an extreme fuel shortage. 

Haitians Gather Around a Single Gas Pump

There is the old philosophical question, “if a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear or see it, did the tree really fall?”  In the case of Haiti, even if there have been no recent stories regarding the relief effort going on in Haiti, it does not mean that nothing is happening.  There is still a massive UN presence and numerous international relief agencies and good samaratins working to help the ailing country.   There was supposed to be elections in  Haiti last February that were cancelled.  Most elected positions in Haiti are slated to expire soon.  So, the Haitian Parliament has voted to basically turn over control of the country’s rebuilding effort to others.  President Bill Clinton will co-chair the Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission which will oversee the use of more than $5.3 billion in aid scheduled for dispersement to Haiti over the next 18 months.  Clinton’s co-chair will be Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive and the Haitian state of emergency will be extended to cover the 18 month period.  All of this makes the fuel shortage all that more perplexing.

Delivering For Haiti?

It’s a bit difficult to ascertain the underlying cause of the fuel shortage but the basic problem is a delayed shipment of fuel.  One might think with the United States and its refining capacity and transportation ability so close that this would not be an issue.  Just after the quake, there were fuel shortages due to damaged infrastructure that prevented its delivery.  Black markets for fuel sprang up as people bought pirated fuel from barrels off of trucks or from broken fuel tanks.  But, the fuel delivery infrastructure was repaired.  As it turns out, Venezuela had offered a subsidized deal to provide fuel twice a month to Haiti.  But, the most recent shipment was delayed as ships were diverted to Antigua and Barbuda.  I suppose that in Venezuela’s PetroCaribe program, even a nation that gets preferred terms like Haiti has to wait its turn.  In the interim, trucks from Haiti’s next door neighbor, the Dominican Republic, tried to plug the gap by making a delivery.  But, the Miami Herald reports that trucks were turned back at the border after Haiti’s Minister of Finance ordered the shipments halted.   

Crumbled walls and buildings near the Red Cross in Port-au-Prince, Haiti . Louisville Edge Outreach are starting their groudwork for water purification in this area to the thousands of people that have not had clean water since the earthquake. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 20, 2010

It’s amazing that a recent survey by Oxfam of 1700 Haitian respondents found that 40% of the Haitian people want foreigners to run the reconstruction project.  With President Clinton teaming with Prime Minister Bellerive, it appears that the efforts for the next 18 months will be a joint venture of local and international leadership.  I think most people have confidence that President Clinton will be able to steer the process in the most efficient direction as possible.  Yet, it will be interesting to see how the commission is able to work through the politics and bureacracy of the region.  

Preliminary SPC Severe Risk Area Sat AM to Sun AM

Weather Bottom Line: Forecast going on just fine.  Scattered t’shower or two may pop up on Friday but this weekend may be interesting. There is a strong disturbance coming out of the west that will be breaking into pieces and it will be difficult to determine how it shakes out until we get closer to the weekend.  But, I’ve been talking about the weekend looking interesting and the SPC has an area in the Lower Mississipppi Valley that they are looking at for a good shot for widespread severe weather including tornadoes.  I would not be surprised if sometime on Saturday and or Sunday that our region will be a potential spot for some troublesome weather…probably not wide spread, but the threat will probably develop.  Lots of “probably” there, so at this point just be aware that there is some potential for some rough spots this weekend.

Saints: Best Football Song Ever, Drink That Dixie Down January 23, 2010

Outside the Haitian Community Hospital, which is overflowing and running out of water. Edge will be installing a water filtration system this week for the hospital.Wednesday scenes in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 21, 2010 (cj/cj)

Haiti remains in great need and destitute.  People are asking for donations but you really aren’t too sure how your money will be used.  Help support a group who is bringing clean water to Haiti now and in the future.  You will know where your money is going, who is using it and how it is being used.  Several years ago, New Orleans had too much water in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  All was thought to be lost, especially the football team.   But, as a beacon to Haiti that recovery is possible, the Saints stand on the doorstep to the Super Bowl.  If they make it, Hell will certainly freeze over. 

A great new song about the New Orleans Saints and their quest for the elusive Super Bowl is out.  It’s called, The Night We Drank That Dixie Down and is fabulous.  To truly appreciate it, one might want to know the history of the Saints.

Tom Dempsey had half a foot and no hand but still perservered to the record books

New Orleans was awarded a franchise on November 1, 1966, which is All-Saints Day.  They went 5-1 in the preseason of 1967 and on the opening kickoff of the first game in Saints history, the kick-off was returned for a touchdown.  But, that first game kinda set the stage for the franchise.  Hope rises every year followed by disappointment.  The Saints lost that first game, but did manage to win 3 games that year.  The next two years saw improvement with 4 wins followed by 5 wins in 1969.   Their 1970 first round draft pick became a star for…the Houston Oilers.  The team fell to two wins but the season included the most celebrated event in Saints’ history for years to come.  Tom Dempsey kicked an NFL record 63 yard field goal(video)  to beat the Detroit Lions.  That record has been tied by Jason Elam of Denver kicking at the Mile High altitude of Denver, but it has not been surpassed.  

Archie Manning Loved In New Orleans But Saints Never Won Much

In the 1970′s, the Saints won a total of 42 games…an average of just 4 per year.  1979 was the first non-losing season in team history as they finished 8-8.  The first 5 years of the 1980′s were a little better with 29 wins.  By that time, the Saints had gone through several big name players such as Billy Kilmer, Jim Taylor, Archie Manning, George Rogers, Earl Campbell and Ken Stabler.  They also had headline coaches such as Dick Nolan, Hank Stram and Bum Phillips.  Still the highlight of the Saints remained Dempsey’s 63 yard field goal.  The team then went from sad sacks to not too bad and hope was born when Jim Mora took over in 1986. 

Mora asks, "Playoffs?"

After going 7-9 in Mora’s first season, the Saints won 12 games and made the playoffs.  Both the win total and the playoff appearance were firsts for New Orleans.  But, they lost in the playoffs.  The next two years were teasers with 9 wins coming in ’88 and ’89 but they did not make the playoffs.  Still, Saint’s fans were optimistic. In 1990, they were a .500 team but still made the playoffs and promtly lost.  Double-digit wins in 1991 and 1992 led to first round playoff losses.  Saints fans though, remained loyal.  For the next few years, the Saints were mediocre, did not make the playoffs and when the team began 1996 at 2-6, the loyal fans still showed up, but did so wearing bags on their heads that said “Aints”.  That was it for Mora. 

Ditka Williams Marriage Ended Sour

Mike Ditka showed up and Saints’ fans once again were optimistic.  The team went 6-10 in Iron Mike’s first two years, but after Ditka traded all of the team’s draft picks in 1999 for RB Ricky Williams and the team tumbled to just 3 wins, the Aints bags were back out and Ditka was sent packing.  The 2000′s showed improvement but still, they were back to being almost good enough.  It was the make the playoffs and out routine or just missing the playoffs routine.  Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005 and the Saints were forced to play their home games in San Antonio, TX.  Rumors were that  owner Tom Benson, who was from San Antonio, would move the team.   The population of New Orleans fell by the thousands and there was question as to the city could still support the team.  But, those naysayers underestimated the heart of a Saints fan. 

Drew Brees Has Saints on the Super Bowl Doorstep

I can tell you…if you live anywhere in the state of Louisiana, there is no other game on TV besides the Saints, regardless of their record.  Well, in 2006, Drew Brees led the Saints all the way to the NFC Championship game where they lost, again.  After a couple of good but disappointing years, the Saints now find themselves with home field advantage in the NFC Championship Game again.  They play the Minnesota Vikings who have a soap-opera storyline themselves with 4 Superbowl losses in the 1970′s.  And this year they have the journeyman future Hall of Famer Bret Favre.  But at least the Vikings have made it to the Super Bowl.  The Saints are one of only three teams to not be in the big game or an NFL Championship game.  The other two are the Jacksonville Jaguars who did not enter the league until 1995 and the Houston Texans who only have been around since 2002. 

So, let us all hoist a Dixie Beer to the Saints and their loyal but long suffering fans and see what fate befalls the team after 43 years of futility.

NWS Louisville graphic

Weather Bottom Line:  We did not get any sunshine today but it was still rather mild with highs in the mid 50′s…sorry you had to go to Bowling Green to find 60.  I will give you one certainty. It will be colder next week.  Beyond that, it gets kinda muddled.  Saturday night will be a good chance for rain and possible t’storms, though nothing too exciting.  Same is true on Sunday.  A cold front comes through on Monday and then a secondary trof may bring some snow late Monday with some flurries or light snow.  I think the snow total comes to about an inch on the most aggressive model and that is over about 36 hours.  The ground probably won’t be cold enough for much accumulation  initially so it really wont be that big of a deal though driving may be tough Tuesday morning.   After that, we have another system by Thursday or Friday.  Some data suggests a guy coming from the Gulf and other ideas are it comes across the southern tier of states.  We may get above freezing from time to time during the week but not much and by late Thursday or early Friday, the issue of the track of the next system will determine how much snow we get. I can draw a scenario of 6 inches and another of rain with a little snow and then another with some ice mixed in, which I don’t like.  So, we’ll have to wait and see.

Global Warming Kills Filipinos! Broken Glass Deters Burglars! Frankie Shoots Johnny! October 15, 2009

This Pig and the Philippines Were Victims of Climate Change, Not a Typhoon, According to the Philippines President

Tropical Storm 22 Forecast Track Creates Typhoon Lupit and Sends it to the Philippines

CLICK HERE For a more recent update on Typhoon Lupit, 

Even though US news media outlets have largely been silent on the subject, the Philippines suffered from the effects of two tropical cyclones over two weeks time.  One of those storms, Typhoon Parma, came back for a second landfall on the island.  This was in the wake of Tropical Storm Ketsana. Together, the two storms took at least 710 lives in the Philippines and greatly damaged rice production, infrastructure and the Filipino economy in general.  As Parma made a final assault on Vietnam, heading near Hanoi, Philippines President Gloria Arroyo made a speech in which she asked for international aid.  Now, the UN tried to raise $74 million in funds but only got pledges for $19 million.  So, perhaps seeing that the international community wasn’t responding to the run-of-the-mill plea for help, the president is trying a new tactic to get some attention. She says that the Philippines is a victim of climate change and that, as victims, the Philippines is due compensation from the real culprits to their calamity,which is the rest of the world.  It will be interesting to see where this goes because if Arroyo is successful in this argument because, if she is, then other underdeveloped countries will be standing in line for compensation every time there is a weather related disaster.

Watch Typhoon Lupit Develop in Most Recent Loop

Perhaps she should hold off and wait for more evidence.  You see…there is another tropical cyclone developing.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts that tropical storm 22 will become Typhoon Lupit and strike the Philippines.  At this point, the Typhoon Lupit forecast track (if it were to become named) is currently oriented to hit almost the exact same spot that Typhoon Parma hit the Philippines.   Each storm name is provided by a different country and it’s ironic that Lupit was submitted by the Philippines.

The Tichenors

In another impoverished country, Snow White and I have friends who are doing missionary work.  I told you about how Bowen and Lindsey Tichenor sold everything that they owned, including raffling off their home, took their 3 small children and went to the Dominican Republic to build water purification facilities for the extremely impoverished people in that island nation.  They managed to avoid any strong tropical cyclones but, crime is a real problem.  They have an ingenious way to protect their home and family.  Outside the home they have spread broken glass to deter any night-time prowlers.  You can follow their updates on the Tichenor website or read an update in this PDF File:

TichenorN…pdf (2.0 MB)  You can also get on their facebook page or follow their exploits on Twitter.

A woman shot a man on this date in history the ballad about the shooting became an American classic, though it wasn’t too accurate.

Blind Fold too tight for Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you the weather would suck on Wednesday and its not getting much better for the rest of the week and perhaps into Saturday.  Chilly and wet.  Wonder if the president of the Philippines would say we are victims of climate change.  I want compensation!

A Better Chance to Win a House than an American had winning a country July 12, 2009

We’re nearing the time for the big drawing. IT’S A CHANCE TO WIN A HOME ….a nice suburban home. These good folks are raffling the home but, they are doing so to raise money for mission work. They are setting out to bring clean water to the impoverished of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Therefore, they tell me the purchase of a ticket is tax deductable. Great opportunity to win, great opportunity to give. At least take the time to click on the links and check it out.

On this Date In History: American William Walker was a doctor, lawyer, newspaperman and hypnotist in the middle of the 19th Century. But he became better known as a filibuster, which is from the Dutch word that means freebooter or soldier of fortune. He was a little guy as he weighed all of about 120 pounds but he had big ambitions. On This Date in 1856, at the age of 31 he became the only American born citizen to become President of another country….supposedly. At least that is what my source claims. I would suggest that Sam Houston as President of the Republic of Texas was first. Anyway, this guy convinced the head of the Democrat party in Nicaragua to invite him and some “settlers” to come to Nicaragua. In reality, they were a bunch of mercenaries hired to help that party win a civil war that was going on. The ruse of being settlers was set up to avoid entanglement in US neutrality laws. So, he and his band of merry men helped defeat the opposition and he set up a phony election that made him president. He only served two years because he irked the wrong guy.

Walker leading the way at Lake Nicaragua

One of the things he was doing was trying to conquer neighboring countries by hiring more mercenaries and also get support from the slave holding South in the United States by rescinding Nicaragua’s long standing Emancipation order. Well, none of that sat well with Americans in the North and particularly Commodore Cornelius Vanderbilt who had a company that ferried freight and passengers across that part of Central America before the canal was built. He even had designs of building a canal across Nicaragua and Walker was in the way. So, he got together a bunch of guys in neighboring Costa Rica and even got help from the British and American Navies. That was the end of Walker who lost a key battle on April 11, 1857 and surrendered on May 1st of that year. He was sent back to the United States where he wrote a book about his adventures. He tried to return and when he did, he was captured again in Honduras by the British Navy who turned him over to local Hondurans who promptly had Walker executed by firing squad at the age of 36 on September 12, 1860.

While we don’t think about William Walker much, his defeat and failure marked a turn around in Central America as it was seen as a pseudo war of independence. His name is one hated as it is held up as a symbol of “Yankee imperialism.” In Costa Rica, there is a national holiday commemorating Walker’s defeat on April 11. So, for all his trouble…he got a day in Costa Rica for his failure. Take a lesson from this. Don’t try to take over a country. Leave that to the professionals.

SPC Severe Threat Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  The weak boundary dropped down (it was a COLD front, not a cool front…there’s no such thing as a cool front) and came through but a quick looksee leads me to believe that we were sandwichced in between shorts…there was one to the northeast and one to the southwest and all that rising air had to sink somewhere so my guess is that it was over our area and it suppressed t’storms in our area Saturday afternoon.  Now the boundary is just to our south and any waves will be running along it.  The SPC has the focus for today just to our southwest.   They’ve probably got a wide enough berth to account for an undulation to the north but, should the boundary set up much farther north, then we may be susceptable.  I’ll give you a hint of what I really think…I watered my flowers.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009
  
   VALID 121300Z – 131200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   INTO THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY…
  
   …CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY…
   COMPLEXES ONGOING OVER NERN KS AND SERN SD MAY CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH
   THE MORNING ALONG PERIPHERY OF SRN HIGH PLAINS MID LEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE.  REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY FLOW
   ALOFT AND THEREFORE SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS…WITH SEVERITY AND LONGEVITY DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY.  THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ATTM THAT BOWING COMPLEX
   APPROACHING NWRN MO AT 13Z COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF AND INCREASE SEWD
   TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH TODAY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BREAK CAP
   ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO.  REGARDLESS… ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   OF SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS/MCSS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
   EVOLVING TO THE NORTHWEST INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
   AND/OR INVOF SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARIES ALONG FRINGE OF STRONG WNWLY
   FLOW ALOFT.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING DETAILS OF
   ACTUAL SEVERE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS.  THEREFORE…WILL EXPAND A
   BROAD SLGT RISK AND ACCOMPANYING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM
   THE HIGH PLAINS REGION SSEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY WITH
   LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING
   THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
  
   …ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA/SRN MD…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES
   TODAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE EWD FROM THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY…MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AND SEVERAL MODELS
   DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN NC
   SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING AT LEAST A THREAT OF
   SEVERE STORMS…INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES INTO THE
   EVENING.
  
   …PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES…
   FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD…ENHANCING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
   ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN ROCKIES.  IN
   ADDITION…FETCH OF MODEST PWS EVIDENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS
   IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS
   ACROSS THE REGION…INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS.  HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/12/2009

Help The Poor-Get a Tax Deduction-Win a 2100 Sq Ft Home! Anti-War Secretary of State Resigns June 10, 2009

 

Get These Kids Clean Water, Take a Deduction and Maybe Win a Home

Tax decuctable donation gives chance for a new house!  (Go For It! Click HERE!) A couple is selling everything they own to help others.  Lindsey and Bowin Tichenor are taking their 3 small children and moving to the Dominican Republic to help bring the impovershed nation clean drinking water.  The government can’t or won’t do it, so these folks are dedicating their lives to do so.  To help support their mission, they are raffling their home.  (It’s a Suburban 2100 sq ft home  Click Here for Specs)  I’m guessing that because the money raised will go to their mission, essentially you are making a donation and then you get a chance for the home and that is why they tell me the purchase of a chance is tax-deductable.  Go for it.  Odds of winning are going to the casino.  And you are helping others to serve the needs of people in need. Doesn’t matter what  your political party is, your religion or even if you have a religion.  You can help others who are helping their fellow man, you get a tax deduction and you may end up with a house.  You say you care about the poor? Put your money where your mouth is!

Bryan Could Often Get Worked Up in Speeches. The Guy to the Right Looks like He's seen This Act Before

Probably the Closest Photo You'll Find of Bryan Smiling

On This Date in History: On this date in 1915, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned. In May of that year, the Germans had sunk the Lusitania, one of the worlds largest ships. Over 1200 perished, including some 128 Americans. Bryan sent a nicey-pooh note to the Germans saying how he wanted to stregnthen relations and such. I suppose today, Jennings would have  gone to the UN.  Nevertheless, the Germans responded saying that they were justified in torpedoing the passenger ship, claiming it was carrying arms. Years later, historians have established the ship was indeed carrying a small amount of armaments.

Now, Bryan was big-time anti-war.  He had run for President a few times and lost each time but supported President Wilson because the President had run on a platform of peace.  He supported Wilson’s declaration of US neutrality.  But, Bryan saw that the advances in technology had made traditional aspects of neutrality dangerous.  He thought that a position of neutrality should be modified to restrict the travel of Americans into war zones because it was impossible to protect US citizens when there are submarines running around.  But, Wilson insisted on tradition.   

Wilson and Bryan Jan 1913

So, when the Lusitania went down, President Woodrow Wilson responded with a terse note demanding that Germany curtail its practice of unrestricted warfare. Bryan urged the President to send a similar letter to the British for its violation of neutral rights.  I suppose that would be “fair” except that any violations the Brits had did not include the sinking of ocean liners filled with passengers  Wilson instead sent a second letter to the Germans.  Bryan, fearing the letter represented an escalation toward war, resigned instead of signing the letter. The Germans responded by scaling back their U-Boat practices through 1916. When they started again in 1917, Wilson eventually asked for, and received, a declaration of war against Germany. The Yanks indeed did come and turned the tables of the conflict against the Axis powers and the war eventually came to an end.

 

By the way, the man who took Bryan’s place was Robert Lansing….no relation to the actor, seen here as Mr. Gary Seven from a famous Star Trek episode. The actor’s real name was Robert Howell Brown. He took his stage name from the town of Lansing, Michigan.

Today's Convective Outlook SPC

Surface Forecast Wednesday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  One certainty that shows up when looking at the vertical profile progs is that we will remain unstable for the next few days.  There is a boundary stalled to our north and so waves will run along the boundary and enhance the risk for rain and potentially the risk for strong storms.  As I had indicated previously,  a wave did in fact move to our north Wednesday morning with the appendage sticking down enough to provide some rain and t’storms just north of Louisville but not enough to engulf the entire area.  I’m supposing that as the wave moves by, the stationary boundary will sag a shade farther south in its wake.  So, the next waves that come along will track a bit farther South.  Timing and exact route of these waves will remain problematic and will probably only be known when they actually initiate storms.

Tornado Probability Through Thu AM

Nevertheless, the NAM puts a wave on us around Midnight Wednesday night.   The parameters are pretty healthy then and the NAM even ramps up the SWEAT index to near the 400 threshold for an enhanced twister risk.  It also has even stronger feedback for Thursday.  The GFS advertises more consistent rain chances throughout the day but takes its parameters highest throughout Thursday and even Friday.  Probably a pretty good idea to keep abreast of the weather the next few days.  By late Friday, the front is progged to sag South.  Some data suggests that another wave forms in the Southern Plains on Friday and moves it into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, thus dragging the front back our way.  Should that occur, then we may be vulnerable to more rain and possibly strong storms.  We’ll wait to see what happens. So, don’t panic, but keep your ears on.  Biggest risk the next few days will be for wind and hail but one cannot discount the tornado risk as super cells may pop up on an isolated basis.

Severe Hail Probability Through Thu AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
  

Severe Wind Probability Through Thu AM

 BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
   STATES…AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
   GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
   BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.
  
   AT THE SFC…A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE…FRACTURED IN
   A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION…EXTENDS FROM ERN
   CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK…AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.
   
  

Convective Outlook Thursday SPC

 TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
   INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY…2)
   PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
   LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT…AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
   RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK…AND
   DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.
  
   …SRN PLAINS…
   IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
   COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
   TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
   INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
   THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
   IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
  
   STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK…AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
   SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK…EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
   ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
   BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
   ACROSS WRN OK…AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
   MORNING.
  
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
   STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
   SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
   SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
   IN ADDITION TO WIND…LARGE HAIL…AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL…UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
   FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.
  
   …MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
   EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
   LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   ACROSS THE REGION ATTM…POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.
  
   …EAST…
   ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING…BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW…AND WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
   INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
   HOWEVER…SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
   MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.
  
   …HIGH PLAINS…
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
   WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
   FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
   DAYS…INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
   INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS…PRESENCE OF LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT…LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL ZONE…AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
   KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.
  
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/10/2009