Mexico City Shook To Its Foundation 25 Years Ago; It will Probably Happen Again
September 19, 2010

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR USGS PHOTO LIBRARY OF MEXICO CITY 1985

Original City Was Literally on Lake Texcoco

On This Date in History:  Mexico City has an interesting history.  It is built on the ancient Aztec City of  Tenochtitilan which was built as a water based society really on top of Lake Texcoco through the use of chinampas or water gardens.  When the Spanish showed up in the early 16th century, they eventually conquored the Aztecs and decided that this big lake just would not do.  Lake Texcoco was an enclosed lake and tended to flood the city and beside that it impaired their use of horses.  So, they began projects to drain the lake.  Well, in 1519 the city had 250, 000 inhabitants which was a lot of folks when one considers that London had about 200,000 people and Madrid about 64,000 around the same time.  By the turn of the 20th century, Mexico City still had about the same population that it had in 1519 but by 1953, the city’s population had mushroomed to over 3 million and the area went from 29 square miles to about 150.  Much of the expanded city was on the dry lake bed of Lake Texcoco.   By 1996, Mexico City covered 870 square miles and was home for about 17 million people. 

15 Story Steel Reinforced Nuevo Leon Building Collapsed

Now, with the lake gone and the population rising, water became scarce so they started drilling wells on the old lake bed for water.  The result of the extraction of groundwater has been some serious subsidence.  Beyond that, an old lake bed is not a very stable geological formation on which to build a city.  It has the ability to jiggle alot when shaken.  That makes Mexico City one of the most vulnerable cities in the world when it comes to earthquakes.  On this date in 1985 an earthquake registering 8.0 on the richter scale shook Mexico City and the surrounding region.  The earthquake struck at about 7:17:47 AM on September 19, 1985 releasing about 5.61 x 1024 ergs (10 to the power of 24) or about 19 kilotons of TNT which was about twice as much energy than the Hiroshima atomic bomb.   It was the greatest earthquake event in Mexico since the Great Jalisco Earthquake of 1932.  The geology of the former lake bed is suspected to have contributed to great resonance effects with dominant two second horizontal ground accelerations that were recorded in the area.  The epicenter of the quake was relatively shallow but was 300 km away from Mexico City which is pretty far away in relation to the damage.   Evidence supporting the assertion that the physical characteristics of the earth around Mexico City contributed to the extreme effects is the fact that a large percent of the building damaged or destroyed were between 8 and 18 stories high.  Think of it has buiding a house on jello.   

Steel Reinforced Concrete Suarez Apartments Couldn't Stand

The earthquake was felt as far north as Houston, Texas and as far northwest as El Paso, Texas and all the way in Tuscon, AZ a swimming pool at the University of Arizona lost water due to the sloshing from the vibration.  To the west, a tsunami was generated that was about 3 meters high at Zihuatenejo and 1.4 meters at Acapulco.  That tsunami resonated across the Pacific to Hawaii and even a 5 cm rise was recorded at Tahiti.  An aftershock of magnitude 7.5 on Sept 21 caused a second tsunami, though some geologists suspect that this was a separate earthquake rather than an aftershock.  That is something for academics to argue about because it really makes little difference.  The damage was horrific.  Obviously, severe damage was experienced in Mexico City and the death toll has been pegged in excess of 9500 with some estimates of fatalities approaching 35, 000.  At the time, Mexico City probably had about 15 million people so, when you think about it, the percentage of fatalities vs the total population was pretty small…but when you are talking about such huge numbers. small percentages can translate into large numbers of people.   Like the fatality totals, total casualties may never be known for certain but injuries numbered at least 30,000 and some 100,000 people were left homeless.  412 buildings collapsed and 3124 were severely damaged in Mexico City.  The earthquake affected about 825,000 square miles.  Damage was caused across Central Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas on the Pacific Coast to Vera Cruz on the Gulf Coast. 

Ruins of the Hotel Regis

An interesting aspect of this event was that, initially, the political power of the country said it didn’t need  any help.  The Revolutionary Party had been in power for so long that it was considered by many to be an institution.  But, many political analysts suggest that the governmental early rejection of foreign aid led to the downfall of the Revolutionary Party.  A number of rather somber ceremonies were held today to commemorate what happened in Mexico City 25 years ago with civic memorial services as well as Roman Catholic Masses conducted to remember the dead.  At the location of the Hotel Regis, patrol cars and ambulances lined the streets and turned on their sirens to mark the time of the quake.  That was a particularly imfamous building collapse as shortly following the hotel’s demise, a gas leak fed a fire that made it quite difficult to try to rescue anyone who may have survived.

Notice the Uprooted Foundation of this 8 story building that split in two

The really sad thing is that this type of catostrophe will probably happen again.  When the Spanish first conquored the city they considered moving it but chose not to do so.  The center of the city is really pretty close to the center of the old lake bed and that lake bed has a relatively high water content.  Hence, when there is considerable shaking then liquification of the sediment takes place making it unsuitable to support large structures.  The same thing happened in the landfill areas around San Francisco Bay in the 1991 earthquake there.  In California, there is the San Andreas Fault which makes that part of the US susceptable to earthquakes but Mexico is extremely vulnerable as there’s a lot of constant friction between the North American Plate, the Cocos Plate and the Pacific Plate.  It’s one of the more seismically active regions of the world with some 90 temblors of maginitude 4.o of more recorded on average each year.  Not only is the region active and the dry lakebed not overly stable, the lakebed also has a natural harmonic pitch of about 2.5 which means everything on the lakebed shakes at the same frequency and it just happens that 2.5 is a very common frequency of shallow earthquakes.  Mexico City is kinda like New Orleans, or Los Angeles or Pompeii or Seattle or any of a number of large, urban environments that are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters that have come in the past and will come again in the future.  It’s just part of the risk of living on an active planet.

Tsunami Claims At Least 34; Philippines Death Toll Rises; US General killed by fellow officer
September 29, 2009

Tropical Storm Parma Will Miss Philippines

Tropical Storm Parma Will Miss Philippines

Update Found HERE

NEWS-US-ASIA-TYPHOONTropical Storm Ketsana dropped some 17 inches of rain in 12 hours on one of the most populous cities on earth, Manila.  The Philippines is not a wealthy country and there are reports that international aid is pouring in.  But, as of Sept 29, the big donor has been Japan at about $220,000.  The US has pledged $100,000.  We have ballplayers who make more than that in one day.  I suppose its good to wait and see what is needed but it seems to me that much more will be needed.  The US Navy is assisting in search and rescue operations.  There are numerous sources for flooding photos from the Philippines.   Stories are flying across the wires that the Philippines will get hit by another tropical cyclone.  Well, that’s a bit of hyperbole.  Yes, there is a tropical storm.  Yes, it is expected to become a typhoon.  Yes, it is moving in the general direction of the Philippines.  But, the latest forecast calls for it to turn and head toward Taiwan.  Now, with this course, the northern Philippines can expect unwanted rain in the form of bands passing through, but don’t believe the headlines just yet that imply the Philippines will be struck dead on with another tropical cyclone in a few days.

samoaphotoElsewhere in the Pacific, there was a lot of shaking going on and frayed nerves.  Ever since the tsunami in Thailand, the press has become tuned in, acting as if its a new phenomena.  Video and the internet clued in ignorant journalists to what pacific rim folks have known for centuries, that tsunamis can be extremely devastating.  While there have not been world wide reports regarding deaths, there was a 5 foot tsunami in American Samoa that occured following a giant quake  that has been reported as 7.9, 8.3 and 8.0 and was moderately shallow at 11.2 miles depth.  It was known for quite sometime that at least one village was washed away but CBS now reports at least 14 have died on American SamoaLater reports have the death toll up to 34.   Here are the details from the USGS.

Earthquake Details

Magnitude 8.0
Date-Time
Location 15.558°S, 172.073°W
Depth 18 km (11.2 miles) set by location program
Region SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
Distances 185 km (115 miles) ENE of Hihifo, Tonga
195 km (125 miles) S of APIA, Samoa
705 km (435 miles) NNE of NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga
2700 km (1670 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 6.6 km (4.1 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=293, Nph=293, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.07 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source
  • USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID us2009mdbi

The USGS also has a summary regarding the plate tectonics involved specifically with the event:

neic_mdbi_wTectonic Summary

The broad-scale tectonics of the Tonga region are dominated by the relative convergence of the Pacific and Australia plates, with the Pacific plate subducting westward beneath the Australia plate at the Tonga trench. At the latitude of the earthquake of September 29, 2009, the Pacific plate moves westward with respect to the interior of the Australia plate at a velocity of about 86 mm/year. The earthquake occurred near the northern end of a 3,000 km long segment of the Pacific/Australia plate boundary that trends north-northeast.; farther north of the earthquake’s source region, the plate boundary trends northwest and then west. The eastern edge of the broad Australia plate may be viewed as a collection of small plates or microplates that move with respect to each other and with respect to the Pacific plate and the Australia plate interior.

On the basis of currently available location and fault mechanism information, we infer that the September 29 earthquake occurred as a normal fault rupture on or near the outer rise of the subducting Pacific plate.

The broad-scale Australia/Pacific plate boundary is one of the most active earthquake regions in the world. Earthquakes occur on the thrust-fault boundary between the Australia and Pacific plates, within the Pacific plate on both sides of the trench, and within and on the boundaries of the small plates that compose the eastern edge of the overall Australia plate.

Bull Nelson Before Demise

Bull Nelson Before Demise

On This Date in History: Union General William “Bull” Nelson got his name from being a big, bearish man who used his physical size to intimidate others. He had initially been an officer in the navy and somehow became a general in the army. But the Bull was butchered in the Galt House in Louisville on this date in 1862. Not only was he murdered by another Union General named Jefferson Davis, he met his demise in the presence of the Governor of Indiana.

NY Illustrated News Captured the Moment

NY Illustrated News Captured the Moment

In the summer of 1862, while General Don Carlos Buell was wandering around Tennessee with his Louisville based Army of the Ohio building railroads following the battle of Shiloh, the contingent of men left to defend Louisville was left to one of Buell’s subordinates, Nelson. Confederate General Braxton Bragg began a campaign into Kentucky and the fear was he would get to Louisville before Buell could return. So, while Buell was plodding along back to Louisville, Nelson started putting cannon on the Indiana side of the river so he could shell the city if the Confederates ever invaded. For some reason, Bragg didn’t come to Louisville…probably a blunder…though he was probably fearful of the reception he would get from the populous. So, as Buell’s army trickled back in, Nelson spied Gen. Jeff Davis of Indiana ordering his men to dig in. Bull didn’t think much of that and let Davis know.

Jefferson C Davis Didn't Man Up

Jefferson C Davis Didn't Man Up

Davis wasn’t pleased but instead of manning up and facing Bull, he ran back to Indianapolis and fetched Indiana Governor Oliver Morton and on the evening of September 29 1862 in the stairwell of the Galt House in Louisville, tough guy Davis confronted Nelson. He challenged the powerful Nelson to a duel who, in front of Morton, rebuffed Davis with a scoff and then with the back of his hand when pressed. Nelson went up the stairs and our hero Davis grabbed a pistol, ran up the stairs and shot General Nelson dead. Before he died, Nelson tried to cover all of his bases by getting baptized but that didn’t help with the post mortem scales of justice. See, Buell had Davis arrested but Buell got fired about two months later following the battle of Perryville. With Buell out of the way and the main witness being a good Republican Governor from a Union State, Davis never faced trial and so the murder of a Union General in front of several witnesses was never “solved.” And so ends another tale of courage and justice during the Civil War and it all happened at the Galt House.

No word on whether or not Davis spent the rest of his life looking on golf courses for the real killer.

Louisville NWS Wed AM Forecast Temps

Louisville NWS Wed AM Forecast Temps

Weather Bottom Line:  You can tell that I didn’t look at the stuff too much because I missed a feature that I should have caught.  It was a vort lobe swinging around the main low.  Very common with winter systems and this is a winter-like system.  So, we had wrap around clouds and many people never got to the 60′s.  Now, the trofiness associated with the lobe should continue to pinwheel around and we will clear out.  I suspsect that the winds will also decrease so I still think overnight lows in the 30′s for the northern 1/3 of the area is reasonable to expect.  We had temps in the mid 40′s last night and I think that the low to mid 40′s will be popular.  Wednesday will be a better day with plenty of sunshine and the mercury in the mid 60′s.  Low 70′s on Thursday and then Friday is a bit in the air.  We’ll be in a situation where we have a front approaching that will try to drag up warm moist air before it gets replaced by another round of cooler air.  Its possible that we get some strong storms…but I gotta believe that everything has to come together at the right time for that to occur. So, we’ll see how it unfolds.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 31 other followers