Chimp Challenges Experts For 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast May 28, 2010

Hurricane Andrew Sequence Aug 23, 24, 25, 1992

"Dr. James Hansimian"

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: Let us begin with the 2010 hurricane season prognastication of Dr. James Hansimian(video).   He is predicting 6 to 8 hurricanes for the 2010 season.  Never heard of him?  You probably will.  You see, he is a chimpanzee whom the National Center for Public Policy Research has put on the record in an effort to emphasize how little humans really know about the climate.  They claim that NOAA has been “wrong three out of the last 4 years and 7 of the last 11.”  They say they are not hiring “Dr. Hansimian” to ridicule  the effort and dedication of climate and hurricane specialists but instead to highlight that, even with the greatest minds, competence, tools and methodology, humans do not have a complete understanding of the climate.  They say that they will make another video in December 2010 of Dr. Hansimian and determine who was more correct.  In the meantime, let us look what some of the leading authorities have to say. 

Hurricane Headlines Used to Contain Facts, Not Sensational Hyperbole

Now, I already had a pretty good idea of what the National Hurricane Center would say.  What is amazing to me though is the media coverage.  I looked at the headline from USA Today and it says, Fierce Hurricane Season Predicted.   CNN had a story about the exact same subject but its link was a more subdued, “Hurricane Season Could be Above Average.”   Nevertheless, the actual headline to the story was a more menacing, “Hurricane Season Could be ‘Active’ or “Extremely Active.’”  AFP via Yahoo News was even more dramatic by trumpeting, “2010 Hurricane Season May Be Worst on Record.”   But, Reuters via Yahoo News had a little different spin as its headline read, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005.”   Fox News says, “Hurricane Season Could be Strongest Ever Say Top Meteorologists.”  I have yet to find any quote from anyone at NOAA or the NHC that verifies any  of these headlines except fo the one from CNN, which not-coincidentally is the least sensational.   Interestingly, CBS4 in South Florida took a different tact.  Instead of focusing on the threat to the United States, instead its headline was, “NHC Director Fears For Haiti This Hurricane Season.”  That one is right on the money.  A tropical cyclone for Haiti of any magnitude would not be good and they get nailed in one form or another very frequently.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Names 2005 to 2010 (In 2005 they ran out of names so went to Alpha, Beta...etc.)

So, what did was the National Hurricane Center 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast on May 27?   To begin with, the press release from the NHC had a headline that read, “NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic  Hurricane Season.”  Note that this headline lacks the hyperbole and extreme adjectives of the media.  As usual, they give themselves a wide berth by saying that there will be between 14 and 23 named storms.  That would be tropical cyclones of tropical storm force or more.  The difference between 14 and 23 is pretty large.  Eight to 14 of those storms are expected to be hurricanes with 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes which means category 3 or greater.  For the past several years, NOAA taking some of the thunder from the NHC.  I believe they are in the process of changing the name of the NHC to the NOAA National Hurricane Center; I suppose it’s an effort to establish that its a governmental agency.  In any event, the initial quote from their press release is not from an NHC forecaster or the Director.  Instead, its from the Under-Secretary of Commerce, who said, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record.”   Notice she said “If” and “could” and related it to “one of the more active” seasons.  The reason they give is warm ocean waters, no El Nino and a decadal cycle.  The last one is the most significant.  Accepted science generally has concluded that the Atlantic season goes in cycles of about 30 years in which there is great activity and, conversely, 30 years with low activity.  Since 1995, we have been in an “active era.” 

2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Now, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the most active in recorded history.  Keep in mind that it fell in part of the current “active era” and that recorded history is limited.  The first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in 1969 so prior to that, only ship reports were able to confirm hurricanes and ships kinda like to avoid storms so its possible there were several over the years that were missed.  Anyway, in 2005 there were 28 named storms with 15 hurricanes including the two notable powerful storms, Rita and Katrina.  That means, in order for the headlines of some of these media outlets to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season would have to have 5 more named storms than the top end of the forecast and one more hurricane than the extreme forecasted.  The headlines also neglect to take into account a very important and possible caveat from the press release that could put a damper on the number of storms:

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

Dr. William Gray: Making Hurricane Season Forecasts for At least 27 Years

Now, for 27 years one of the leading hurricane forecasting expert has been Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University.  Until recent years, he was about the only one who tried to make a forecast.  The NHC lately has been getting into the game and diminishing the role of Dr. Gray.  Dr. Gray is now has handed over some of the duties to Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the pair lead the efforts at Colorado State.  Back in early April, the Colorado State University  team issued their 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and noted warm ocean temperatures and a weakening El Nino as the reason for a more active season.  However, their numbers are more pedestrian.  They suggest 15 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes.  They go a step further and say that there is a 69% probability of major hurricane striking the US which is higher than the 52% of the 20th century.   Another tropical cyclone forecasting service, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast is somewhere in between the NHC  and  CSU with 16.3 (+/- 4.1) named storms, 8.5 (+/- 2.8) hurricanes and 4 (+/- 1.7) major hurricanes.

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005

On average, the number of named storms in any given year in the North Atlantic is 10 (9.6) with 6 (5.9) hurricanes and 2.3 of those becoming major hurricanes.  So, both forecast teams are predicting an above average season.  It would seem that the folks at CSU might be a looking on the low end with an eye on the El Nino not diminishing completely to neutral until after the hurricane season has started.  The NHC seems to be banking on the El Nino coming to an end sooner, or at least allowing for that possibility, thus they have the substantially larger number of storms on the high end of their range.  But, again….Dr. Gerry Bell’s words make it sound as if they think that a La Nina condition developing is a real possibility.  The two forecasts are almost identical except that the NHC gives itself a wide berth so, if by chance there are a bunch of storms, then they can say they said so.  They also can avoid making any huge revisions as the season progresses as has been done with some initial hurricane season forecasts in the past.  The truth is, it’s just a forecast.  We’re in the middle of an active 30 year cycle and so its expected to be more active.  How much more active is an academic exercise.  In the first place, it’s impossible to predict so far out any specific disturbance developing in exactly the right conditions.  Remember, you need more than just warm water to have a tropical cyclone.   Also, just because a tropical cyclone develops, it doesn’t mean that it will hit land.  A tropical cyclone’s job in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical region to the polar region.  They don’t really care if there is land in the way or ocean. 

Just Because It's a Headline, Doesn't Mean that It's True

And one more thing….note that nothing was said about Global Warming in either the Colorado State University forecast or the National Hurricane Center outlook.  They do refer to a warm surface temperature anomoly, but that is about as close as you get.  And, if it were due to Global Warming or Climate Change, then it would stand to reason that there would be more tropical cyclones all around the world.  As it happens, the NHC forecasts a Below Average Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Beyond that, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has a 2010 NW Pacific Typhoon Season Forecast that is near average.  TSR also has a forecast for the Australian region for tropical activity to be about 10% below average.  Going by the forecasts…well above average for the North Atlantic, below average for the Eastern Pacific and Australian region and about average for the NW Pacific.  Doesn’t sound like a global climate calamity, does it?  So, if the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season does have a signficant number of hurricanes, get ready for the media reports that try to tie it to Global Warming.  But, don’t believe it.  And, if the number that actually does come about is less than forecast (as was the case in 2009) then look for an explainer, which the NHC has already conveniently put out there.  See, they’re pretty smart.  If the season is slightly above average, they can say, “we said so.”  If its way above average, they can say, “we said so.”  And if the number of storms is less than the predicted range, they can say, ” we warned you about a possible La Nina.”  All the bases are covered.  That’s what a lot of guys on TV do as they can always claim victory, no matter what, when they say “Variable cloudy skies and a 50% chance of rain.” 

NAM Friday Evening Precipitation Forecast

Penn's Store in Gravel Switch, KY Since 1845

Weather Bottom Line:  I had to go to Gravel Switch Kentucky to help the folks at Kentucky’s oldest store, Penn’s Store.  Actually, it’s not just Kentucky’s oldest store, it is considered the oldest country store in America.  I am told that it began operation in 1845, though I’ve seen published reports that claim 1850.  But, I think I’ll go with the word of the Penn family.   About a month ago, when Tennessee was getting relatively sparse coverage of flooding, Kentucky got even less coverage.  Of course, South Central  Kentucky only got 11 inches of rain and parts of Tennessee got 15-20 inches so I suppose that it fits that if Tennessee got slim coverage, then Kentucky got none.  Anyway, I was helping them clean up and rid the store of a snake and so I could not post on Thursday when the NHC  Hurricane Forecast came out.  So, I’m a day late.

GFS Monday Evening Precip Outlook

I did see a few towering cumulous clouds late in the day…about the time I was playing St. Patrick and ridding the Penn’s Store of a 4 or 5 foot snake.  On our return to Louisville, there were some pretty decent wind gusts and it was much cooler, leading me to believe that there were some decent thunderstorms around, which did not surprise me.  The weak boundary will still be in the area on Friday so we will see some scattered storms again with highs in the mid 80′s.  We warm a bit over the weekend with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80′s.  We may have an isolated t’storm on Sunday but more likely there will be scattered afternoon storms on Memorial Day.

Are a you against HR 3200, or against Health Care Reform in General? Hurricane Forecast Reformed August 13, 2009

This Screaming Angry Lady is For Health Care Reform, is she un-American for her passion?

Are you against Healthcare Reform?  Snow White and I were on a trip and I listened to satellite radio most of the time in the car.  The topic on all of the news stations was Health Care.  Alan Colmes was interesting because he accused the protesters of being uncivil because they shout down their opponents then he proceeded to shout down any caller who disagreed.  I spoke with a friend of mine who runs a business.  Previously, he said that when his taxes get raised, he’s going to let some employees go because he’s not going to make less money.  Perhaps a real-life example of true consequences.  Anyway, we were discussing the health care plan and he pointed out that the president says that you can keep your health care coverage if you like it.  But, he will be offered an incentive to cancel his coverage for his employees.  If he does not offer health care, then he simply pays a 10% fee, which is cheaper to him than covering his employees.  So, there will be a number of companies that will end that benefit to save on the bottom line and force their employees into the public option.  There are those that say page 16 of the plan says that you can keep your coverage but the insurance companies cannot sign up any new people to that plan.  Thus, eventually there will be no one with that coverage and any new employees will be forced into the public option.  You can read HR Bill 3200 here to draw your own conclusion.  Then there is the argument that President Obama created when he pointed out how well FedEx and UPS do in competing with the US Postal Service.  First off, it shows and government operation that does more poorly than the private sector so why would we expect health care to be done better by the government.  Further, it also illustrates that the government can operate at a loss and still stay in business which means that the government has an unfair competitive advantage over the private sector that cannot stay in business if it loses money year after year. 

These people oppose the Bill does that mean they are against health care reform or just this bill? Are they more un-American than other protesters?

 But, this raises the question of whether it is right to call someone un-American or label them against health care reform just because they don’t like this particular bill or the proposals of others. Many people suggest that they agree that there needs to be reform, but they would favor Tort Reform and removal of prevention of availability of health care plans between states.  The argument is that it would lower costs and create more competition which would lower costs.  As it is now, you can’t go to another state for coverage like you can with auto insurance and there is no provision for tort reform in the current bill.  Still others say that if you want government health care, it should just be for those who are unemployed or do not have access to health care and that is all.  If someone is against this bill, does that mean that they are against health care reform?  With all of the tumult, why not send Congress back to the drawing board to come up with a plan that is more popular with more people?

TD 2 12Z 08.13.09 Spaghetti Model

TD 2 12Z 08.13.09 Intesity Spaghetti Model

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University revised their predictions for the 2009 Hurricane Season downward again, which is not suprising since an El Nino developed a few months ago.  When there is an El Nino, the Atlantic tends to have more frequent periods of strong westerly upper level winds that are hostile to tropical cyclone development and maintanance.  In my mind though, the latest prediction remains pretty aggressive considering that as of this writing, there has not been a single named tropical cyclone.  Nevertheless, the Colorado State tropical weather experts forecast 11 named storms with 5 of those storms becoming hurricanes.  They say that this is below average, yet up to a few years ago, the average was something like 10 storms and 6 hurricanes.  I suppose the increased activity of the past several years has raised the average.  The National Hurricane Center also revised their forecast downward and calls for a 50-50 chance of a near normal season.  Really going out on a limb.  They have a 40% probability than fewer than average storms in the North Atlantic. 

Invest 90 Spaghetti Model

Invest 90 Intensity Spaghetti model

Still, there have been no named storms in the North Atlantic and we’re heading into the heart of the Hurricane Center.  In my mind, it is not surprising that the forecast was revised downward, but that it wasn’t lower than it was initially and that it continues to be as high as it is.

Anyway, the past week is probably the most active time we’ve seen all year.  There have been a couple of strong tropical waves coming off of Africa and there are a few areas of disturbed weather in the  Caribbean.  The two waves have the best potential.  The first is the second tropical depression of the season.  The general direction forecast by a majority of the models is for this guy to move west northwest and then eventually curve into the Central Atlantic.  There is probably a better chance for it to affect Bermuda than it is the United States.  The second one (Invest 90)  has a forecast track that is more westerly and may be more of a threat.  In both cases,  the majority of the models make them tropical storms with a few outliers calling for hurricane development down the road. The others in the Caribbean probably won’t pose much of a problem as conditions aren’t too good, but they bear watching.

Weather Bottom Line:  The front is way to our south and will stay there.  Look for dry conditions with warm afternoons in the upper 80′s and lows fairly comfortable in the 60′s with relatively low humidity.  We should slowly become more uncomfortable as we head into the weekend with increasing humidity.

No Hurricanes Yet: Due to El Nino, Global Warming or Neither; US V.P. wanted for murder July 11, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season began June 1. Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives. 7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly. Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season. The most ferocious for the US was Hurricane Ike and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos. The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes. The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about. People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992. Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since.

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project. This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes. There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes. This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino was anticipated as the season unfolds. It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming. However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes. In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity. Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world. So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

Last year, A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite. Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did. Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study. This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

 So, now it’s official from NOAA, El Nino is upon us.  What that typically means is a risk for big storms on the Pacific Northwest coast this winter along with a cooler and wetter winter season for the southern plains, among other things.  One of those other things is a limitation of tropical development in the Atlantic basin.  The experts took the notion of a weak El Nino into consideration when they made their initial forecast.   Can we expect a dramatic revision downward in the hurricane forecast or is the El Nino data in line with their supposition?  Personally, I’m not so sure  that humans have enough understanding of the atmosphere and factors involved in tropical storm development to be making long term tropical forecasts.  The forecasts get revised every so often during the year so at the end, they come close, but the initial prognostications are often way way off.  We’ll see. It’s still pretty early in the hurricane season and lack of activity through mid July by no means is a predictor for the rest of the season, which typically peeks in early September.

Aaron Guns Down Alex

 On This Date In History: In recent years, we have heard the “I” word tossed about rather liberally. That word is impeach.

 President Andrew Johnson was impeached but was not convicted by one vote. President Clinton was impeached but also avoided removal from office as the Senate did not vote for conviction. Today, we haven’t heard of anyone calling for the impeachment of  the current president or vice-president.  Yet.  Someone probably will before President Obama’s 4 years are up.  There were certainly those who wanted to impeach President Bush and even Vice-President Cheney.   These calls came from allegations of malfeasance. But on this date in 1804, there is no doubt about it…the Vice-President of the United States gunned down Revolutionary War hero Alexander Hamilton.

Peter Charles Hoffer Wrote About Burr Treason Trials

Hamilton had been an aide-de-camp of Washington during the war and later led a crucial attack at the Battle of Yorktown. He became the first Secretary of the Treasury and served in that capacity for 6 years before retiring. He then formed the Federalist Party, the first political party in America. He detested Thomas Jefferson and the two developed what became known as Hamiltonian ideals and Jeffersonian ideals. Basically, Hamilton wanted a strong central government and Jefferson was for a weak central government with most of the power belonging to the states. Today, Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Burr's 1807 Treason Trial

 Anyway, in 1804, Burr was the sitting Vice-President under Jefferson and Hamilton had made some unsavory remarks about Burr, who responded with a challenge to a duel! Hamilton had been famous for dueling but had ironically pushed to outlaw the practice in New York. So, Hamilton and Burr went across the river to New Jersey. On this date in 1804, two shots rang out in Weehawken, New Jersey. Hamilton lay mortally wounded. There is great speculation regarding the incident as many suggest that Hamilton missed on purpose as he was a veteran duelist and a good shot. But there were procedures if one was to desire to not shoot one’s opponent. Hamilton did not follow the procedures. Witnesses could not determine who fired first. But what did happen, is that Burr was forced to stay out of New York for the remainder of his term as murder charges were filed. He is now left to nothing more as a footnote to history, though he was later tried for treason. Alexander Hamilton, on the other hand, has lived in immortality as the face of the ten dollar bill.

 Henry Clay in 1809 was in a Kentucky duel. He was lucky. Both he and his opponent were lousy shots.

 While Dick Cheney did in fact shoot his friend with a shotgun blast, the calls for his impeachment had nothing to do with his shooting prowess.

SPC Severe Risk Sat 8am to Sun 8am

SPC Sun Severe Risk Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Saturday is here and a cold front is on its way.  By 9 am it appeared on the radar that a line of t’storm was trying to form along the front between a strong line that extended from near Cleveland and Indy and another cluster associated with a shortwave on the front that was in Southern Illinois.  This would suggest that the risk for t’storms with the initial frontal approach will be in the late afternoon or evening in the Louisville region, which will be the heat of the day.  Guess here is that wind will be the main severe risk with perhaps some hail.  The SPC doesn’t have us in the risk for tornadic activity but,  I can tell you that studies have shown that a large number of the twisters that happen in our area are little guys that spin up and go away quickly along bow echoes…so I wouldn’t put that concern totally to bed.  Nevertheless, if you get damage from wind in a small tornado or strong straight line winds or a downburst, the results are the same so it’s really not relevant except that people like say they were hit by a tornado rather

Tornado probability

than strong wind. Guess it sounds sexier.  Anyway, the local NWS office puts the threat between 1 pm and 9 pm and I suspect that John Gordon’s folks are looking at the same line that I am.  Now, what will happen is that the front will get hung up near our area so the threat for t’storms will be with us for several days as little short waves move along the stalled boundary.  The threats each day will be dependent on the timing of the waves and the exact position of where the front will be lined up and forecasting that at this point is above my paygrade and more of a crap shoot call for anyone, so I shant try to pinpoint that as it will probably be wavering about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

Severe Wind Probability

   
   VALID 111300Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
   INTO OH VALLEY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH RIVER VALLEY…
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE

Severe Hail probability

GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
   CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HEATING THROUGH THE 70S F INTO MUCH OF
   PA/NY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
   ONTARIO/LOWER MI…WITH 80-90F TEMPS SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING…SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PORTIONS OF OH INTO WRN-CENTRAL PA/NY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES.  ACTIVITY
   WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD
   ESEWD WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   UNDER 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
  
   FARTHER SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY…REGION WILL REMAIN ON
   FRINGES OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER…AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
   MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF
   SLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
  
   …CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK OVER SWRN SD WHICH ARE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING.  MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD
   AWAIT AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASCENT
   AHEAD OF SUBTLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING STORMS LATER TODAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS…WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A
   FEW CLUSTERS/LINES PERSISTING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
   DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
  
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ND/NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  REGION REMAINS UNDER
   INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WITH RESULTANT DRY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER…ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF DIGGING IMPULSE FOR
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   INTO THE EVENING.  SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SD
   OVERNIGHT AND MAY FEED ELEVATED TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF MN WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/11/2009

2009 Hurricane Season Forecast. Will Global Warming Reduce The Number of Hurricanes? May 20, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season begins in less than two weeks.  Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives.  7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly.  Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season.   The most ferocious  for the US was Hurricane Ike  and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos.  The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes.  The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about.  People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992.  Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since. 

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project.   This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes.  There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes.  This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino is being anticipated as the season unfolds.  It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming.  However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes.  In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity in recent years.  Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world.   So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

 Last year,   A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite.  Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did.  Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study.  This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

Hey, it’s going to do what its going to do, whatever the cause.   We currently have a system that has been traversing the Florida Peninsula bringing welcome rain.  For several days, the National Hurricane Center has been threatening to send out a Hurricane Hunter to investigate even though they admitted the chances of it turning tropical was minimal.  They keep cancelling the flights and have now said that they will stop making special reports.  However, it will be interesting to see what they will do in the coming days as the models suggest the low will move into the middle of the Gulf and not along the Gulf Coast, as previously indicated.  It remains progged to be around a 1008 mb low, which is below standard sea level pressure but not all that low.  It will give the boys at the NHC something to talk about and use as a PR tool as we head into the hurricane season, which starts June 1.

NAM Fri Eve has 1006 mb low in Gulf

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY…AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION…LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

Good Weekend For a Cruise on the Belle of Louisville

Weather Bottom Line:

  The ridge continues to hang out and will do so through the weekend.  Shower activity will be supressed and the temperatures will elevate into the mid 80′s as we move through the end of the week into the weekend. Enjoy it.  Snow White and I are going on a bike ride this afternoon.  Yesterday we saw Star Trek and she liked it so much, she wanted to see it again….like right then.  Never knew she was a trekkie.  It was good though.  I love McCoy and Scotty.  They have some great lines.

Be Patient…It’s Not the Dust Bowl Yet May 31, 2007

Our situation officially remains “abnormally dry” according the the US Drought Monitor (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html) but we’ve only had a little more than a half inch of rain in the last 3 1/2 weeks so I say enough is enough. The big pattern should shift to the east enough to allow for a front to get into the area and bring our best chance for rain in about 4 weeks. There are water restrictions in part of the area….parts of Shelby County. It seems to me they either need to increase the water supply or build a big pipe to the Ohio River if they are going to keep growing. The blame was put on increased water usage but I say its more likely an increase in people.

Hurricane season starts tomorrow. The first storm will be Barry because the National Hurricane Center already used up Andrea on what they called a “subtropical storm” a few weeks ago. The hurricane center is in a battle with Dr. William Gray, who started making predictions several years ago. While he’s still in business, the gov’t cut his funding and started putting out their own forecasts. He says its in retaliation for his pooh-poohing the man made Global Warming argument. There may or may not be validity but I suspect the big wigs at NOAA didn’t want him getting credit. After all, these are the same people who are going to change the National Hurricane Center to the NOAA Hurricane Center…or something like that. I’ve already noticed that NOAA is making its name more prominent in all press releases. Such narcissism.

Funny thing is…Gray is pretty specific…he says 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes. NOAA’s NHC says 13-17 named storms and 7-10 hurricanes. The government has a better chance of not being wrong. But if you think about it…17 represents a 30% increase over 13 and 10 is a 42% increase over 7. When I was in school, a margin of error that large left me with a big fat “F”.

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Follow Up…Do You Trust This Man? April 16, 2007

This is a follow up to yesterday’s ponderings….the man you see above is Dr. William Gray. He is the man that everyone runs to each year for hurricane forecasts. From links you find below, you will see that Dr. Gray is no fan of Al Gore or the notion that man is causing globabl warming. That is fine. But, one article from 2006 says that after Gray started refuting global warming claims, his funding was cut off by the government. Now..here’s the deal. Either you believe this man and hold him up as an expert or you think he’s a loon and dismiss him. I don’t see how you can have it both ways. I find it wholly inconsistent and disingenous for people to hold him up as an authority for hurricanes and then dismiss his thoughts on global warming being caused by naturally altering global ocean currents and not man’s activities. Either he is credible or he isn’t. Here are the links:

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/41295/story.htm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301305_pf.html

This Date in History: For me, Everything on this date is eclipsed by a single event on April 16, 1962. In New Orleans, LA a child was born. His lungs were collapsed and they thought he would die. His grandmother prayed for the child to live. The child struggled for survivial but he eventually recovered and his other grandmother urged his name to be Sandy to reflect the color of his hair. But, instead, the boy was named for the most influential and greatest man of his life; He was named for his father. Thus the world, for better or worse, received Robert B. Symon, Jr.

I can tell you now, 45 years later, the hair is sorta a sandy, reddish color and tends to fall out before it turns grey.