Tacoma Narrows Bridge: A Big Mistake
On This Date In History: The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened in July 1940 to great fanfare. With a span of 2800 feet, it was the third longest bridge in the world. The builder decided to save money by making the bridge only 39 feet wide to support just two lanes of traffic which seems pretty short sighted given that it was probably a pretty good bet that traffic in the years ahead would continue to increase. Nevertheless, the bridge only had two lanes but was designed to withstand winds of 120 mph. People flocked to the bridge after it’s opening, not just because it was faster than the ferry, but also because word had traveled that the moderate winds that are common in the area would make the bridge sway and even undulate up and down. It was pretty cool to see. Drivers reported losing sight of the autos in front of them when the bridge waved. The bridge gained the moniker “Galloping Gertie.”
Brave (or stupid) Pedestrian
All the fun and games came to a crashing end on this date in 1940 when steady winds of just 42 mph made the bridge sway…and then leap. It continued throughout the day until the entire structure failed. The bridge had been closed but the last man let across lost control of his car and, in fear of being tossed 190 feet into the Tacoma Narrows below, he fled on foot. He tried to retrieve the family cocker spaniel from the back seat but the pup would have none of it. As he reached the end of the bridge, the bridge collapsed spectacularly with the dog as the only casualty.
The result of the collapse was analyzed and is a common subject in college physics classes. Basically, the wind was in tune with the natural harmonics of the bridge. The more the wind blew, the greater it increased the amplitude of the harmonics creating a wave. Its a similar phenomena as when a singer breaks a glass. To avoid a similar fate, bridges today, including the one that replaced “Galloping Gertie” have damping and aerodynamic features built in and wind tunnels are used to test the ability of the structure to resist wind and prevent compromise of the integrity of the structure.
Here is the 1940 Newsreel Footage of the Collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge
Here is a different, color film on video of the collapse
Whatever man builds, can come down. Gravity and other forces are constantly at play. There are some things in life in which compromise can be a good thing. But engineers cannot afford to not get it right the first time. It kinda reminds me of what US Grant often said, “man proposes; God disposes.” These days we often teach our kids that close is good enough. If that is your methodology, mommas don’t let your babies be engineers.
Posted in American History, Bob Symon, History, Opinion, Science, This Date In History, US History, Weather, Weather and History | Tagged: bridge collapse, Bridge Construction, bridge failure, civil engineering, Construction, Disaster, engineering, Galloping Gertie, Galloping Gertie photos, Galloping Gertie Video, Great Depression, Highways, Newsreel Tacoma Narrows Bridge, physics, Road Construction, Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse 1940, Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse Video, Tacoma Washington, Transportation | 2 Comments »
Eastland Disaster One of Nation's Worst
On This Date In History: The Eastland was a steamboat on the Chicago River in the early 20th century that was built with known engineering flaws. But, they used it for ferrying passengers from the city to picnic sites on Lake Michigan. It was designed to hold 650 people. On This Date In 1915, some 7000 employees of the Western Electric Company gathered on the dock along the north side of the Chicago River between LaSalle and Clark streets to board 5 steamers. The Eastland was known as “the speed queen of the Great Lakes” and the folks from Western Electric, along with their friends and families, were to be taken on that Saturday morning to Michigan City Indiana. Now, in 1913, the Eastland was retrofitted to hold 2500 people, but a naval architect that very same year said that “unless structural defects are remedied to prevent listing, there may be a serious accident.” Nevertheless, the boat remained in service and it is estimated that at least 2500 boarded the vessel and perhaps more. There is suspicion that a large group of the passengers got to one side of the boat to pose for a picture. Other stories claim the passengers crowded together to watch a fist fight or look at a passing boat. With the big weight shift, an engineer opened one of the ballast tanks but instead of stablizing the boat, it capsized right along the dock. Over 800 bodies were eventually taken to the Second Regiment Armory, which served as the morgue.
The “Eastland Disaster” has become obscured in the American conscience perhaps due to the role of the United States Congrss in the events of July 24, 1915. The ultimate cause of the disaster was the retrofit done in 1913 which left the ship top heavy. Ironically, the retrofit was partially done so the steamship company could be in compliance with the federal Seamen’s Act of 1915. The Seamen’s Act (formally known as the Act to Promote the Welfare of American Seamen in the Merchant Marine of the United States) was sponsored by progressive Republican Robert La Follette and was a quick reaction to the Titanic disaster of April 1912 in which it was determined that there were not enough lifeboats on the giant luxury liner.
Some of the Victims
So, Congress decided that they would include in a law designed to aid the plight of sailors, a provision that required all American ships to have a full complement of lifeboats and rafts to support every passenger. The law was very short sighted though because Great Lakes ships like the Eastland, had a much shallower draft than ocean going vessels. It is argued by Stephen Cox in The Titanic Story: Hard Choices, Dangerous Decisions that additional lifeboats on the Titanic would not have saved more lives because the crew would not have had enough time to lower them away. In the case of the Eastland, it is certainly the case that the extra lifeboats did nothing to prevent the loss of life but instead may have been part of the cause for the loss of life. By simply adding more lifeboats, the ship became even more top-heavy and therefore more unstable. Without the extra lifeboats, it is possible that the Eastland would never have capsized. And then entrepreneurs would have been prevented from issuing postcards of images from the disaster scene.
Passengers Walking Across the Doomed Ship and an Adjacent Tug
Several investigations were begun in relation to the disaster but ultimately those were taken over by Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who was known for his authoritariain rule and later for his role as commissioner of Major League Baseball. Under the rule of Landis, grand jury testimony was never published and the findings of the grand jury have never surfaced. Hence, the exact reason for the disaster may never be known. Numerous lawsuits were filed to the US Circuit Court of Appeals but most were tossed by the court as it deemed the owners blameless. It could be that the reason that the court held the owners blameless is because the catalyst of the disaster may have been the law passed by the United States Congress. The court could have recognized that the owners were simply following the mandate set forth by the Seaman’s Act of 1915. Perhaps Robert La Follette should have been held liable for the poorly crafted, short sighted bill.
The Eastland Disaster represents the largest loss of human life in a single event in the United States during the 20th century. In terms of shipping disasters, the death toll was only topped by the Titanic and the Sultana. With all of those bodies, officials in Chicago needed a large building for a makeshift morgue. Initially, the Reid-Murdoch building adjacent to the site was utilized to house the bodies before the Second Regiment Armory building on West Washington Blvd. was set up as the morgue. In the late 20th century, the old armory building had been renovated and was incorporated into a production studio. Today, that building is the home of Harpo Studios and The Oprah Winfrey Show. Some of the employees of the studio have reported encounters in the building and claim that it is haunted by the ghosts of the Eastland Disaster! So, if you go to see Oprah you may want to consult the Ghost Busters. No such worries for the USS Eastland. It was raised and then later renovated and served as the USS Wilmette which was a gunboat used to patrol US waters during World War II and thereafter. In 1946, the Wilmette was sold for scrap at the auction price of $2500.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook Saturday July 24 2010
SPC Severe Outlook Sunday July 25 2010
Weather Bottom Line: One more day of excessive heat and humidty. As I mentioned yesterday, it’s pretty tough to get the mercury to budge to 100 when there are dewpoints in the low 70′s. Friday’s official high was 96 at the airport and not the forecast 99 of the weather channel. I suspect that the highs other than the airport were probably a click or two lower for most people. But…while high moisture content limits the maximum temperatures, it also elevates the heat index. So, look for a high today of 96 or so but a heat index probably close to 110. A cold front sagging down will increse the prospects for rain and t’storms perhaps as early as Saturday night. But, certainly by Sunday we will see an end to the latest brief heat wave but also will have an increase in the possibility of strong storms. After that, we will be cooler but will be less stable. Most long range forecasts have rain chances in the scattered to isolated range after Sunday but, as mentioned in the previous post, I think that at least some of the moisture from the otherwise useless remnant of Tropical Storm Bonnie makes its way around the ridge and perhaps into the Tennessee and Ohio Vallies. We’ll see how it shakes out.
Posted in American History, Bob Symon, Culture, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, Opinion, Politics, Science, Severe Storms Center, Severe Weather, This Date In History, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, US History, Weather | Tagged: Act to Promote the Welfare of American Seamen in the Merchant Marine of the United States, Chicago River disaster, Disaster, Eastland Disaster, Eastland Disaster photos, Eastland Sinking Chicago, Kenesaw Mountain Landis, Oprah Harpo studios haunted, Oprah Winfrey, Seamen's Act 1915, ship sinking, Steamboat disasters, Stephen Cox, The Titanic Story: Hard Choices Dangerous Decisions, USS Eastland, USS Wilmette | 1 Comment »
How Can Anyone Forget This Flood?
Freemason Arms Today Where Mason's Arms Once Stood
On This Date in History: One thing that makes England interesting when looking at history is that so much stays the same over centuries while in America, we tend to tear things down at a whim. The photos from this story illustrate that fact. Now, back in the 1850′s, the United States was experiencing the results of the expanding industrial revolution. However, it was also on a path to what some call a second American Revolution as the crisis involving slavery was headed for disaster. Meanwhile, across the pond in England, the British watched America with a careful eye while its industrial capacity increased. The increase in industry created a need for greater water resources and plans were put in place to meet the ever increasing demands.
Not Much Left of Dale Dyke's Dam
The Sheffield Waterworks Company proposed creating three resevoirs to support the exploding steel industry in the region. Of the three, one would be dominant and require the building of what was then a mammoth dam structure. The ambitious plan, known as the Bradfield Scheme, called for the use of the hills near the town of Bradford to help support the resevoir system. The largest dam and resevoir was the first part of the project and work on the Dale Dyke Dam was begun on January 1, 1859. The earthen dam was near completion in early 1864 and construction of the second phase began with work on the Agden Dam commencing prior to the completion of Dale Dyke.
Flood Scene 1864
By early March, the water level in the large resevoir was but a few feet from capacity and on this date in 1864 workman William Horsefield walked home after work, traversing the embankment of the dam. He noticed a small crack that ran up the entire structure. The weather was stormy and the wind was blowing spray over the top of the dam. Had it not been for the weather conditions, he would have walked along the crest of the hill and may not have even noticed the crack since it’s width was barely enough to fit a single finger. But, he did see it and was a little alarmed due to the length of the small crevice. He immediately notified Waterworks Chief Engineer John Gunson and Gunson determined that the crack was probably due to settling or from a recent frost and appeared to be just a surface crack. Nevertheless, Gunson took some precautionary steps.
Flood Scene Today
It was already 10pm but he decided it would be a good idea to open the valves to lower the water levels until a more extensive inspection could be made. However, he found that workers had already opened the valves and there was no way that the water levels would lower rapidly enough to allow for a proper inspection the next day. So, he ordered the crews to use gunpowder to blow some holes in the dam near the spillway to increase the water release. What is curious to me is that, if he thought that it was just a surface crack, why would he take the drastic measure of blowing up part of the dam? In any event, the efforts failed because the wind and rain made it impossible to ignite any explosives.
Scene of Shakespeare Inn 1864
At 11:30 pm, Gunson made his way back to the site of the crack and found that it had not appeared to have worsened but was horrified when he looked up the embankment to see “water running over like a white sheet in darkness” over the top of the dam. He said that the water flowed down “right under my feet” and down through the crack. He made his way down to the bottom of the dam to the valve house to try and determine the rate of flow and, at first, he said that it wasn’t consequential. A colleague suddenly shouted for Gunson to get out of the way and, as Gunson looked up, this time he witnessed an enormous breech appear at the top of the dam and a wall of water descending his way. As he literally ran for his life across the embankment, he felt a violent shaking and shuddering and, like a scene from an action movie, he escaped the total collapse of that section of the dam with just seconds to spare. He watched in horror as some 650 million gallons of water roared down the Loxley Valley on the unsuspecting, slumbering populace .
Scene of Shakespeare Inn Today
After just 30 minutes, the flood had subsided but, downstream, death and destruction was left behind. This video calls it the “forgotten flood.” The total number of deaths have been reported between 240 to 270. Over 400 houses, 100 factories and shops, 20 bridges, 40 buildings and nearly 4500 market or cottage gardens were washed away. The Great Flood at Sheffield remains one of the greatest man-made disasters in British history. Shortly after the event, a complete history of the Great Flood at Sheffield was written by local journalists using eyewitness accounts. The 1864 Illustrated London News also had a complete story. There is also a Great Sheffield Flood Photo Gallery complete with stories of heroism and survival. The stories were told right away but the reason for the disaster proved elusive. A definitive cause for the dam collapse was not concluded until 1978.
Thursday SPC Severe Outlook
SPC Hail Risk Thursday
Weather Bottom Line: I’ve been distracted as my mother-in-law has been telling me a tale of dealing with a grocery store complaint resulted in the automatic phone system put her on a sex line! I can’t tell the details but it is funny. If you see a little old lady swinging a handbag around at a local grocery store, it’s Snow White’s mother. Anyway, I told you for a week that there would probably be some unsettled weather and most of that should be to our south but it could be close. As it stands, we did have a tornado earlier in the week in Oklahoma. There was some signficant activity in the Arklatex yesterday and even over into Alabama yesterday with some 17 wind damage reports, 6 tornado reports and 100 hail reports. The hail report asepct of this activity is what is will be of the main concern for our area over the next 48 hours.
SPC Tornado Threat Thursday
What is going on is that the big system that I’ve been chortling about for many days seems to be coming out in pieces. What that means is that we get an extended event and it tends to cover more area as different pieces wander out in different areas. Eventually, it will all work its way out. Now, we had pretty dry air over the area. Wednesday was beautiful with highs around 70. Snow White and I even had a picnic. She made her own version of spinach caniloni. Wednesday night, we had a disturbance swing through, but it was on the downside of life, came at night and also ran into dry air so we got just some light rain. But, the clouds remained for most of Thursday. Temperatures were confined to the mid 60′s. I got my hair cut and the people at Looks and also Snow White kept asking me when it would storm. I replied that I did not know because I’ve had other things to do beside look at weather maps but, I wasn’t overly concerned given the lack of sunshine.
SPC Severe Outlook Friday
For some rough weather, we need some sort of lifting mechanism and I think the cloud cover will kinda take the sun out of the equation. What it will take will be the lift created by a vorticity maxima (upper low or shortwave) or some good dynamical forcing…that would be winds converging together to create a rising motion. Most of this type of stuff along with a more buoyant atmosphere will be to our south through Friday. But, if we are able to have some storms with decent heights, the air aloft gets pretty cold pretty fast as you rise in elevation. That would be what we call a steep lapse rate. That would support the idea of hail. Typically, if you can get hail, then there would be the prospects of isolated strong winds. I think that it will be possible should storms develop. But, I would think that the prospects of significant storms may be somewhat limited. It’s worth keeping an eye on and maybe putting the car in the carport or the garage. It will be cooler for the weekend but not too cold. Tell you what…the other day…I spied some models trying to throw snow out here on Monday…but I wasn’t too enthused and didn’t look too more into it. Will be worth snooping about tomorrow. It involves the idea of a low rotating around and coming back from the northeast and the cold air aloft with that low would be sufficient to be brought down with precipitation to cause snow. It’s too complicated for me to deal with now…so don’t worry about it.
Posted in Bob Symon, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, Opinion, Science, Severe Storms Center, Severe Weather, This Date In History, Weather | Tagged: 1864 London Illustrated, British History, Dale Dyke Dam, Disaster, English history, Floods, Forgotten Flood, Forgotten Flood video, Great Britain, Great Flood of Sheffield, Loxley valley, Man made disaster, Man made disasters England, Mason's Arm Flood, Sheffield Flood 1864, Sheffield Flood Photo Gallery, Sheffield Flood video, SPC Severe Outlook Mar 11 2010, UK | 3 Comments »
Tacoma Narrows Bridge: A Big Mistake
On This Date In History: On this date in 1940 one of the greatest engineering boondoggles was uncovered in Washington. The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened in July 1940 to great fanfare. With a span of 2800 feet, it was the third longest bridge in the world. The builder decided to save money by making the bridge only 39 feet wide to support just two lanes of traffic. It was designed to withstand winds of 120 mph. People flocked to the bridge after it’s opening, not just because it was faster than the ferry, but also because moderate winds that are common in the area would make the bridge sway and even undulate up and down. Drivers reported losing sight of the autos in front of them when the bridge waved. The bridge gained the moniker “Galloping Gertie.”
Brave (or stupid) Pedestrian
All the fun and games came to a crashing end on November 7, 1940 when steady winds of just 42 mph made the bridge sway…and then leap. It continued throughout the day until the entire structure failed. The bridge had been closed but the last man let across lost control of his car and, in fear of being tossed 190 feet into the Tacoma Narrows below, he fled on foot. He tried to retrieve the family cocker spaniel from the back seat but the pup would have none of it. As he reached the end of the bridge, the bridge collapsed spectacularly with the dog as the only casualty.
The result of the collapse was analysed and is a common subject in college physics classes. Basically, the wind was in tune with the natural harmonics of the bridge. The more the wind blew, the greater it increased the amplitude of the harmonics creating a wave. Its a similar phenomena as when a singer breaks a glass. To avoid a similar fate, bridges today, including the one that replaced “Galloping Gertie” have damping and aerodynamic features built in and wind tunnels are used to test the ability of the structure to resist wind and prevent compromise of the integrity of the structure.
Here is the 1940 Newsreel Footage of the Collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge
Here is a different, color film on video of the collapse
Whatever man builds, can come down. Gravity and other forces are constantly at play. There are some things in life in which compromise can be a good thing. But engineers cannot afford to not get it right the first time. It kinda reminds me of what US Grant often said, “man proposes; God disposes.” These days we often teach our kids that close is good enough. If that is your methodology, mommas don’t let your babies be engineers.
Weather Bottom Line: Great Weekend. Enjoy it.
Posted in Bob Symon, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, Media, Opinion, Science, This Date In History, Weather, Weather and History | Tagged: bridge collapse, Bridge Construction, bridge failure, Construction, Disaster, Galloping Gertie, Galloping Gertie photos, Galloping Gertie Video, Great Depression, Highways, Newsreel Tacoma Narrows Bridge, physics, Road Construction, Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse 1940, Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse Video, Tacoma Washington, Transportation | 2 Comments »
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track 12Z 10.23.09 Click Image for most recent update
Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop Click for most recent
Looks like an “I told you so” is in order. When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm. The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north. I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
Well, it wasn’t just a wobble. It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines. The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast. So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest. The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines. It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape. Or, you may say that prayers were answered. Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.
Dry Air Intrusion Shows Up Well on Water Vapor Imagery Loop
I Told You So!
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Colonel Klink, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Super Typhoon Lupit, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Japan, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
Western Pacific IR Color Loop click for latest
For update on brighter Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC
The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track scenario isn’t much changed from the previous post. It’s not even a Typhoon any longer. While I think in the end, the data reflects potentially a much more positive outlook for the Philippines, Filipinos remain concerned about Typhoon, now Tropical Storm, Lupit. And they should e concerned, but optimistic. Really, there are very weak steering currents and I think its been drifting WSW mainly due to its own forward momentum. The official forecast has it drift down toward Bataan on the northern edge of Luzon. Then it kinda drifts just off the northern coast in the Luzon Strait. I had noted yesterday that I thought that I saw some dry air within Lupit and now the JTWC makes note of that dry air which is responsible for further weakening. The intensity of the storm is not really the issue. The issue is rain. If this scenario plays out, then the center of circulation stays just offshore and very heavy rains could persist over parts of Luzon for about 72 hours or so. The flooding issue has always been the concern.
TRMM 3 hour rainfall click for latest
Now, I had mentioned yesterday a weakness in the ridge to the north with the center over China getting broken down. The JTWC suggests that a trof will plow through the flow and create a nice channel to the north of Lupit. That would cause the storm to be influenced north and then race northeast. That may put it onto a course for Japan similar to Typhoon Melor but I suspect that the turn would be sharp enough and early enough to keep the storm east of Japan. I looked at the NASA TRMM satellite imagery and it indicates that the area in the ocean just northeast of the Philippines has gotten over 4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. So, from that simple comparison, it is possible that the Philippines could be receiving at least 3-5 inches of rain per day while the storm loiters offshore and right now, it would seem safe to assume the current forecast reasoning would keep the influence of Lupit on Luzon for about 3 days.
Now, there is perhaps some good news. I once had a colleague who told me of a professor that he had who reminded him all the time that the computer models were, in the end, just a piece of paper. I had a professor, Dr. Norman K. Wagner, who used to say that as forecasters we often forget to look out the window and see what is really happening. Well, if you look at the Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW) below, you can see that it would appear the storm may be drifting north already which would suggest that it was already getting influenced by a weakness in the ridge to the north. This is my observation as of 23:38 EDT on Thursday. It could just be a wobble. But if it is an indication that it has started some movement northward, then Luzon may be in luck. We’ll have to wait and see, but the 00Z 10.23.09 JTWC update will probably reflect this change. If I had to bet, I’d say that Luzon will probably fare not nearly as badly as it once appeared it would. But, no one will rest until Lupit is gone.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIX AND THE 222149Z MICROWAVE FIX FROM PGTW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE DRY AIR CROSSING OVER LUZON IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER, CAUSING A FURTHER DISRUPTION
IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT 222245Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN BANDING AND THE WESTERN WALL OF THE EYE ARE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DEPICTS A WEAK FINGER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVELS IS STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TS 22W. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SLOW AS
IT GETS DEEPER INTO AN ILL DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
STILL TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE FINGER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LOITERING IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND TAU 6 THROUGH 12 WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH ERODES SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE
SYSTEM WILL RESUME DRIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
NOGAPS, GFDN, ECMWF, AND UKMO NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH SLOWER
THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRATICALLY AFTER TAU 72.
THE MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE, AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANALYZED FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF THE SYSTEM TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU 24
AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW REMAINS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, OR REORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES BACK TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR
AND INTERACTION FROM LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT
IT IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.//
NNNN
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, Bataan, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, Dr. Norman K Wagner, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines News Lupit, Philippines Rain total, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Super Typhoon Lupit, TRMM 3 Hour Rainfall Totals, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Japan, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop-click for latest images
For updated information regarding Typhoon Lupit and the Philippines CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track
Within the previous post, I made the following comment regarding the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track: “I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan. The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.” What I was talking about is that the forecast track that has been so consistent for so long with a landfall for the northern Philippines was based on the assumption of the storm maintaining a consistent forward motion. I had noted that Typhoon Lupit was slowing down. The problem with that is that as it slows down, it allows for the increasing potential that the steering mechanisms will change. That appears to have happened. The models,which had been tightly packed are now all over the place. It is no longer a probability that Typhoon Lupit strikes the Philippines but instead just one of a number of possibilities. There is even the real possibility that this storm hits nothing; that is curves north of the Philippines, stays east of Taiwan and gets picked up in the flow such that it races northeast off the Japan coast. But again, that is but one possibility.
Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop
As it stands now, the official track takes Typhoon Lupit just along the northern coast of Luzon at a very slow pace if not nearly stationary. That would be potentially very bad as the center of circulation would stay offshore and heavy rain potential for over 48 hours over Luzon could be extremely problematic. I would almost venture to say that this is a worse scenario than a direct quick hit and passage. But, if you read the forecast reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center below, you can read the number of times that they speak of uncertainty. The reason for that is that, as previously stated, the models are all over the place. There are indications that the steering ridge to the west over China is eroding. That would tend to support the models contention that the ridge over the Pacific will become more dominant with its influence. Think of it as a weakness between ridges and if that is the case, then the storm will want to go poleward between the ridges in that weak channel. But, the potential problem lies in the time it takes for that weak channel to develop. Until it does, the storm will sorta drift around in a quasistationary state until the steering currents get more established. That is what the early morning forecast track on October 22 reflects.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
This is no longer a forecast of high confidence. The Philippines is still not out of the woods. But, Taiwan and Japan face a possible threat. I had noted that there seemed to be some dry air within the storm that may inhibit intensification. The JTWC, however, notes dry air to the northwest but reports that the Total Precipitable Water imagery does not indicate that dry air has gotten into the flow. If the storm does in fact have enough momentum to take it down toward the Philippines before it begins to drift, the JTWC feels like there is some chance for an increase in intensity but it is almost unthinkable for this to get anywhere close to its former super typhoon status. I would think that the biggest concern for Luzon will be rainfall and the proximity of the storm to the coast when it does become quasistationary. If this guy lingers around too long, it may get killed by some unforseen outside influence. So many possibilities and so many questions.
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT YET SHOW DRY AIR INTRUSION. POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRAIT OF LUZON WITH THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF A POLEWARD
TURN.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LOITER IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE FURTHER
WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE WEST
BECOMES. THE WESTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS BEING ERODED BY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, A COMMON INDICATOR OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
UNTIL THEY STABILIZE, NOT A LOT OF CREDIBILITY IS BEING PLACED ON
THE MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING A
SUDDEN POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24; PRESUMABLY THEY HAVE
THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST PRESENTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
IN THE ILL DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY, AND SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
POLEWARD TURN DURING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS A VERY LIKELY CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU
12 AND TAU 36, IN WHICH CASE IT WILL TURN POLEWARD AND START TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. //
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Typhoon Lupit 23:30Z 10.20.09
For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track
The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track and intensity forecast remains fairly consistent. However, the timing of the landfall has been pushed back somewhat. The GFS model wants to take the storm into Luzon, south of Port San Vincente at 12Z Friday October 23. The US Navy NOGAPS model wants to run the storm between Bataan and Port San Vincente. The official track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center splits this narrow difference in between. It appears to me that they both have a tropical cyclone making landfall with a central pressure of around 982 mb or so, which is relatively speaking, not that low. For that reason, the intensity forecast has been pulled back to about 90 kts (105 mph) at landfall. While the slower forward motion means the storm makes a landfall a day later than previously forecast, it also means that the storm will be affecting the northern Philippines for over 24 hours. The real problem with this storm will be the heavy rain potential. Areas on the mountains on the western half of the Luzon province will be particularly vulnerable.
Typhoon Lupit IR satellite loop-click more most recent loop
I’ve seen several different spellings for this storm. I’ve seen Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupid, and Typhoon Renali. The last one is the name given in the western Pacific, which I can’t figure out because countries from all around the world contribute to the list of names used by the World Meteorological Organization, yet there is another list used by the locals. What is particularly perplexing about this is that Lupit was the name provided by the Phillipines. Anyway, in general, Typhoon Lupit has behaved itself and the forecast has been pretty verifiable. The track did move north of the 20 degree N. Latitude line before beginning to move more westward and so as the ridge builds in to the north and starts to shove the storm more west-southwesterly it is doing so a shade later. Hence, this is the reason for the forecast landfall point position just north of the previous landfall projections. By and large though, its not a significant shift except that the greatest storm surge, seas and even winds would remain just offshore if the forecast track is verified. But, its stilll several days away and so it would be wise for everyone on the northeastern part of Luzon to be prepared for the surge potential. I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan. The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
The Total Precipitable Water loop is a good tool to view the motion of the storm. Clearly you can see the move to the northwest and then west. If you use the 20 degree N. Latititude line as a guide, it is also apparent that Typhoon Lupit has moved just south of due west in the latest images. It is also clearly apparent that drier air has surrounded the storm but in the later frames, the precipitable water reflectivity has increased. Hence, it is possible that the storm may be getting into a little better environment. This would not suggest that the storm will get stronger, but instead the degradation process is probably over. It still has a good looking structure and there is really nothing to suggest that this guy will just go away. If it does not stay over Luzon for long and follows the track that will keep at least part of the circulation over water means that the re-intensification process once it leaves the Philippines area may be more problematic for Vietnam. People forget that Vietnam was adversely affected by Ketsana and Parma. As it is, Vietnam or southern China will be affected by a significant tropical cyclone. But, its not totally out of the question that the storm may be stronger at its second landfall than the first.
Full Pacific Loop
Just as a sidelight, if you look at the full pacific satellite loop, you will notice another tropical cyclone south of Hawaii. That is Tropical Storm Neki. It is forecast to deepen into a Hurricane (or Typhoon though I think in the Central Pacific they are still Hurricanes) and move northwest. It is forecast to become pretty formidable and it will be interesting to see how it affects the Midway Islands.
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
202310Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 202330Z PGTW DVORAK T-
NUMBER VALUE OF 4.0/5.0. TY 22W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE TYPHOON HAS NOT YET FULLY
RECOVERED AFTER CONTENDING WITH A SLOT OF DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR AND
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, A LARGE EYE
FEATURE, THOUGH OBSCURED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, REMAINS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING THE 202310Z
SSMIS PASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL FORECAST INTENSITY TREND AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO DECREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN ANTICIPATION
OF A WEAKER STEERING FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TYPHOON REPLACES THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
ECMWF, JGSM, AND UKMET, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF BOTH A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-
RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE STORM CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
C. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW IN THE
TAU 96 TO TAU 120 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE REEMERGES
OVER WATER, FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION.//
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Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, Bataan, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Port San Vincente, Super Typhoon Lupit, Tropical Storm Neki, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Taiwan, Typhoon Lupit Vietnam, Typhoon Neki, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
Typhoon Lupit Infrared (IR) Satellite Loop
For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track
Typhoon Lupit is no longer a Super Typhoon and probably will not be a Super Typhoon again. However, the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track remains fixated on Luzon, Philippines. While it will not be a super typhoon, it will still be a formidable storm. Most importantly, it will be producing heavy rain over the northern Philippines for at least 24 hours. The potential for problems will be great, considering previous and existing conditions as a result of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana. From the Infrared Satellite image loop, you can see that the influence of the upper level trof to the north that had influenced the storm north has lifted out. As a result, you can see the way the storm has now come back under the influence of a big ridge to the north that is taking it back on its drive to the west and will possibly build to the south enough that Lupin may get driven a bit south of due west, which would not be good for Manila. Also, the ridge will steer it right back into the same graveyard of Ketsana and Parma, Vietnam which also suffered from notable flooding.
Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop (standard)
I had reported yesterday that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had suggested that the storm will begin to deteriorate due to the steering ridge to the north inhibiting the outflow to the north. While that was possible, I felt as if the storm might begin to wind down for a different reason. It’s tough for a tropical cyclone to maintain a category 5 level. Everything has to remain perfect and thats hard to do as it moves into a different environment or its environment around it changes. In this case, if you looked at the precipitable water loop yesterday, you could see that it appeared drier air was working its way around the circulation. If you look at the standard water vapor imagery, you can see some dry areas to the west that may work its way in but the precipitable water loop really showed it more prominently. In any event, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center now cites that as the reason for its current decline and decline in intensity in the future. There are also eyewall replacement cycles to considier.
Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW MIMIC)
Now, what should be of concern is that the trend is for the storm to decline and then begin to intensify again just prior to landfall. That actually makes sense. Its going to take a few days for this dry air to work its way through the system and as it gets into the core will really mess it up. After several days, it makes sense that it will begin to get its act together and my concern is that intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate in the longer term. So, it is not out of the question that Lupit, if it begins to re-intensify, ends up being stronger than the current forecast indicates. In fact, if you look at the recent Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW) it would seem that after a dry time around 19Z on the 18th, some of the lesser TPW levels to the west are getting squeezed out and the levels are starting to increase. Over the next few days it will be interesting to witness how that situation evolves and will probably play a key role in the ultimate intensity of the storm. As it stands, a 100 kt (115 mph) typhoon is nothing to sneeze at and the biggest concern for most of the northern Philippines is the rain…and it will bring heavy rain. Remember, Ketsana was a tropical storm, not a typhoon. Both the 12Z runs of the GFS and the NOGAPS put a landfalling significant tropical cyclone on the coast of the northern Philippines at 12Z on Thursday October 22 2009. Wave heights in the Luzon Strait are forecast to be running over 30 feet or about 9-10 meters.
Typhoon Lupit 130Z 10.20.09
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Super Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Vietnam | Leave a Comment »
Most Recent Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop
find a more recent update for Super Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE
Super Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track
As I had previously cautioned, Typhoon Lupit became Super Typhoon Lupit. The Super Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track has the same result as previously mentioned though how it gets there got changed. The end result is a landfall in Luzon, Philippines; the same area that was devastated by Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana just a few weeks ago. The country knows its coming but what to do about it is another question. The route there got altered a bit as a trof split the big fat ridge that has been the primary steering mechanism for the storm. The ridge expanded last week and finally drove Parma into Vietnam. All that happened was a little weakness developed and allowed Lupit to turn north-northwest. But, that weakness in the ridge to the north is lifting up and out to the northeast. The ridge is re-establishing itself and will be driving Typhoon Lupit on a westward, if not a west-southwest course over the next few days. Both the GFS and NOGAPS feature a very strong tropical cyclone moving across the northern Philippines. The only difference is the timing. The GFS calls for a landfall around 18Z on Wednesday while the NOGAPS is slower with a Friday 6Z landfall.
Total Precipitable Water MIMIC
Two things of interest besides the obvious grave threat to the Philippines. First thing is that the big ridge will continue to drive this guy west, which means it won’t linger over Luzon like Parma did. But, it also means that it will be driving a weakened, but still formidable tropical cyclone into Vietnam, which also suffered ill effects from both Ketsana and Parma. The second thing is that the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center calls for a decrease in intensity from Super Typhoon to Typhoon status prior to landfall. The reasoning (found below) is that the ridge steering the strom will be so strong as to impede the outflow on the north side of the storm.
Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph History
In my view, the reasoning is debatable but the conclusion is fairly sound. It is extremely difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain such a high intensity of 135 kt sustained winds (155 mph) with 165 kt gusts (190 mph). The reason is that it needs to maintain all perfect conditions such as outflow, water temperature, dry air intrusion and other factors and that just doesn’t generally remain consistent for extended periods. Now the JTWC only backs it down to 120 kts at landfall sometime after 00Z on Thursday (which is a convenient compromise between the NOGAPS and GFS solutions) and that is still extremely dangerous. It will be interesting to see if it does indeed fall back to that extent without any other impediment than the one outlined by the JTWC. The Precipitable Water Loop (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery Total Precipitable Water) is a really interesting way to visualize the ridge to the north, the motion and potential dry air influences.
WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING
/NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (AMI) SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING IN AMI AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AND A REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO EVIDENT IN AMI IS THE SYSTEM TURNING
TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW, AND INTENSITY
IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 22W WILL COMPLETE A TURN TO THE WEST BY TAU 12 AND WILL
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, AND THIS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPEDE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO TYPHOON STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS (WITH THE CONTINUED
EXCEPTION OF WBAR) IN A TIGHT CLUSTER THAT CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THE
FORECAST TRACK. TRACK SPEEDS ARE ALSO IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BUILDS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM TO LOWER
LATITUDES. STY 22W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN LUZON
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND CROSS LAND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A LOSS
IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER
AND BEGINS A PERIOD OF SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.//
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Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Super Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Vietnam | Leave a Comment »
