Hurricane Camille A Powerful But Forgotten Lesson August 17, 2010

Ocean Going Ships Were No Match for Hurricane Camille Aug. 17, 1969

Before Katrina, There Was Hurricane Camille

On This Date in History:  Hurricane is the name given for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.  Tropical Cyclones  form in various parts of the globe but are most frequent in the Western Pacific, where they gain the moniker of Typhoon.  While the annual frequency in the North Atlantic is well below the number expected in the Western Pacific, the very fact of their destructive potential is sufficient for there to be a close study of the storms as they relate to the United States.  By the early 20th century, Americans are used to seeing satellite loops and expert analysis with forecast tracks on television.  While the exact landfall and intensity forecast is not always perfect, everyone in a given area is well informed about the prospects for their area regarding any tropical cyclone activity.  But, it wasn’t all that long ago that none of that was available. 

The Forecast Track For Hurricane Camille Missed the Mark-We've Come a Long Way Since 1969

blahHurricane satellite tracking technology was first developed in 1960, so it has not been available for all that long.  Prior to satellites, the only way that meteorologists could know that a hurricane was approaching was from ship reports.  But, ships tend to try to avoid big storms so the information available was relatively limited.  That meant that the forecast success rate was limited.  The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was officially forecast by the US Weather Bureau to go up the east coast of the United States.  Meteorologist Isaac Cline in Galveston was convinced the storm was approaching Southeast Texas while his bosses in Washington kept saying otherwise.  So, the advent of satellite technology was a huge step forward in tracking storms.  The first hurricane to be tracked continuously by satellite was a rather ominous one:  Hurricane Camille.  In just 3 days it would grow from a tropical storm to become the most powerful force on the face of the earth and the storm of the century.

Hurricane Katrina Made Landfall in Almost The Identical Location As Hurricane Camille 36 Years Earlier

Camille came off the African coast as a tropical wave and progressed across the Atlantic.  On August 9, 1969 it was reported as a disturbance nearly 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Five days later, it was determined that it had a circulation  near the Cayman Islands with a central pressure of 29.50″ or 999 mb and it gained the name of Tropical Storm Camille.  A day later, it was southest of Cape San Antonio, Cuba and it’s pressure had dropped to 991mb or 29.26″ of mercury.  The maximum winds were estimated to be 115 mph and Camille was designated as a hurricane.  Now, the forecast had called for the storm to make a landfall in the Florida panhandle.  But, hurricane forecastinig was in its infancy and, again, this was the first storm to be tracked by satellite.  So, the level of experience using such techniques was limited.  The forecast track versus the actual track had a much larger degree of error than we have today.   Even today,  the intensity forecast is extremely difficult so, back in 1969, the experts had their hands full in that regard.  By the 16th of August, Hurricane Camille had moved North-Northwest into the Gulf of Mexico and its central pressure dropped to 905 mb or 26.72″ of mercury.  At that time, it was the lowest central pressure ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and one of the lowest ever recorded for a tropical cyclone anywhere in the world. 

Fishing Boats Became Common Yard Decorations

On August 17, 1969 Hurricane Camille was about 250 miles South of Mobile Alabama with maximum surface wind speeds estimated to be in excess of 200 mph.  Hurricane Camille was significantly more powerful than Hurricane Katrina.   At 11:30 pm on this date in 1969, Hurricane Camille made landfall near Bay  St. Louis, MS.  Hurricane Katrina had a remarkably similar path as Camille.  Remember, Hurricane Katrina did not hit New Orleans; Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi in nearly the same location as Hurricane Camille 36 years before. 

Destruction Level Map As a Result of Camille

When Camille made landfall, the guage at the west end of the Bay St. Louis bridge registered 909 mb or 26.85 inches of mercury.  That represented the second lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the United States; a 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys checked in with 892 mb or 26.35″.   Hurricane Andrew registered 922 mb at landfall near Miami in 1992 and I believe that Katrina checked in at 920 mb when it was offshore but had a considerably higher central pressure at landfall.   Extreme winds associated with such low pressure make measuring velocity difficult as anemometers tend to blow away or power supplies to measuring devices often fail.  But, the SS Cristobal anchored in Pilottown, LA estimated winds of 160 mph.  Overall, maximum sustained winds estimated for Hurricane Camille were estimated to be 180 to 190 mph with gusts of 210 to 220 mph.  Keep in mind that a tornado designated as EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale has winds of 166-200 mph.  The highest rating for a tornado on the EF scale is EF-5 with winds of over 200 mph.  Hurricane Camille was much larger than any tornado yet its top winds approached those of the most destructive tornado. 

Top computer generated image shows new eyewall forming around contracting old eyewall; bottom shows new eyewall

While Katriana and Camille both were category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir Simpson Scale at one time, Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph.   Camille slammed the coast at full fury.  It is very rare for a hurricane to make landfall in the United States as a category 5 hurricane.  Only Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992(FL landfall) and the unnamed Florida Keys Hurricane in 1935 hold such a distinction on the list of most intense hurricane to strike the United States.  While it is uncertain why several storms have weakened prior to landfall, I believe part of the reason is happenstance.  It is very difficult for a hurricane to maintain maximum strength for long.  Absolute perfect conditions must exist for a hurricane to reach such a level and as time goes by, those conditions change.  Also, there is a natural life-cycle to a tropical cyclone in which, when it reaches its top strength, there is something called an eyewall replacement cycle.  The initial eyewall collapses toward the center and a new eyewall forms.  During this process, the central pressure will tend to rise and the winds decrease.  Hurricane Katrina was in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle when it made landfall which is why it did not hit Mississippi at maximum intensity.   However, it has been my  observation that when a hurricane goes through the cycle, the energy gets expanded from the center and so, while the winds at the core may be decreased, winds at the extremities seem to be stronger than normally anticipated.  In the case of Katrina, the winds near Mobile at Dauphin Island, AL were clocked at 105 mph; that is not much of a lapse from the maximum winds. 

Storm Surge Map Hurricane Camille 1969

Storm surge take time to react to changes in wind speed.  So, while the pressure rose and winds fell off with Katrina, the forward momentum of the storm in conjunction with the storms previous winds of 175 mph resulted in a storm surge consistent with a category 5 hurricane and not a category 3.  I’ve never done a study on the subject before, but I hypothesize that the part of the United States perhaps most vulnerable to a high storm surge is the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  As we have seen with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the water gets very deep very quickly off the coast.  The Deepwater Horizon was located only about 65 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River but it was in some 5000 feet of water.  The area is known as the Mississippi Canyon and depths just off the mouth of the Mississippi River approach 10,000 feet in some spots.  Conversely, the Mississippi Bay is extremely shallow.  So, when the volume of water shoved up from the Gulf comes ashore in Mississippi, it is trapped by the bay and has nowhere to go but up.  With Hurricane Camille, a maximum storm surge of 24.6 feet was recorded near Pass Christian, MS. 

Most of Metairie Was Not As Fortunate As My Aunt

I have family in New Orleans. I was born there.  I know the city.  On the Friday prior to Katrina’s landfall, I called my aunt in Metairie and told her that the storm would hit Mississippi; I told her if I was wrong, then it would be farther east.  The laws of physics and atmospheric conditions told me that it would not hit New Orleans.  However, I warned her that I could not be certain if they would not get affected by the western eyewall or how the levees would hold.  I suggested that she go visit my parents in Houston.  She was reluctant, saying that her house was 8 feet above see level on the Metairie Ridge and that her house never flooded.  I reminded her that, be that as it may, she would be out of power for weeks and nothing would be more miserable than being in New Orleans with no air conditioner.  She finally relented on Sunday and it took her 18 hours.  As it turns out, she was right.  Her home had little or no damage.  Just a mile or so down the road, the homes not on the ridge were irrepairably flooded. 

Click on Map for Times-Picayune Slide Show of Katrina New Orleans Flooding

You see, while New Orleans was not hit by a hurricane and did not receive the full storm surge and Katrina could not match the intensity of Hurricane Camille, it was a much larger storm.  The push of the water to the west,  was enhanced initially by the large wind field and the east wind ahead of Katrina.  As the storm went by the progression of the surge that led to the flooding of New Orleans continued with additional surge that went up Lake Borgne, through the Intercoastal Waterway and toward the Industrial Canal.  I speculate that the surge of Katrina was greater than Camille due to its size.  The surge along the Mississippi Coast was between 20 and 30 feet.  I know for sure, that I told Snow  White on Sunday night prior to Katrina’s landfall that “alot of people are going to die tonight.”  I know that I told my friend and co-anchor, Steve Burgin, the same thing.  Snow White says that I said it on the air.  I’m not so sure that I did.

Before and After View of the Richelieu Apartments Where A Hurricane Party Was Supposedly Held; As the Story goes-one person survived by floating out of a 2nd story window before the building collapsed

But, the reason that I knew that was because it had been so long since Hurricane Camille, that most people did not remember Camille.  I was a kid in 1969 and we were supposed to go to a family reunion in Biloxi but Biloxi was blown and washed away. We drove to Mobile Bay and the Grand Hotel at Point Clear, AL a month after the storm.  I saw the fishing boats on the other side of the highway after Camille.  I saw the empty space were homes and businesses used to be.  Interstate 10 was not complete yet and we had to divert way north to Poplarville, MS and I remember that far inland all of the trees laid over like matchsticks and the utter devastation to Poplarville that was 40 miles inland.  I rememberd how large ocean going freighters were stuck on the beach and saw a giant beached barge.  I remembered the story of the infamous hurricane party supposedly held at the Richelieu Apartments. 

Flooding In Richmond, VA From Hurricane Camille

Most of the people who lived there in 2005 were not aware of Hurricane Camille.  Certainly, the developers of all of those casinos that the legislature determined could not be on land did not learn any lessons from Hurricane Camille in 1969.  Camille killed some 267 people, though many were killed in Virginia and West Virginia from flooding.  In fact, rainfall from Camille  in parts of the Virginia’s  approached 25 inches.   Due in large part to the flooding in New Orleans, somewhere between 1000 and 2000 died from Katrina, yet I”m afraid that to some degree, the lessons from Katrina could be forgotten just as they were with Camille.  The greatest that I can think of is that no one seems to want to admit that Hurricane Katrina did not hit New Orleans.  Some folks along the Mississippi Gulf Coast in 2005 had no clue of what was about to hit them.   I’m afraid that, even though Katrina utterly devastated New Orleans, it will be lost on public officials and residents that it could be far worse.  It is quite unsettling to think of what a Hurricane Camille striking Southeast Louisiana from the Southwest with 200 mph winds would do to the Crescent City.

Weather Bottom Line:  I saw over the weekend a forecast that called for temperatures in the 90′s this week which tells me that person’s abilities are limited.  Upper 80′s is the story as a frontal boundary came through followed by  a secondary push of drier air.  That front to the south didn’t go to far and tomorrow we have a wave running up along that boundary which may overrun our area and give us a chance for rain.  I’m still not so sure that the remnant of Tropical Depression 5 is not going to help bring us some moisture too this week.  Anyway, the humidity should slowly return as the week progresses and we probably will eventually get back to the low 90′s by the end of the week as a warm front moves north on Friday or Saturday in advance of an oncoming cold front.  It’s not that great of a front except that it will reinforce the fairly comfortable conditions we have with bearable humidity and highs around 90.  Sunday looks to be the better of the weekend as rain chances should be off the board.

Oil Disaster In Gulf Is Not Unprecedented, but Past Reveals Little Hope May 4, 2010

Deepwater Horizon Blew Out Two Weeks Ago But It Took Time for the Media To Understand the Disaster Potential

The Deepwater Horizon in Better Days

Today, oil industry experts and government entities are attempting to find a way to cap an offshore oil well in the Gulf of Mexico that has become uncontrollable due to a blow out.  The blow out resulted in the destruction of the oil platform and the loss of 11 crew members.  On June 4, 1979 oil industry experts and government entities were attempting to find a way to cap an offshore oil well in the Gulf of Mexico that had become uncontrollable due to a blow out.  Yes, the incident near the mouth of the Mississippi River in the Gulf is not totally unprecedented. Red Adair practically invented and perfected the trade of capping wild wells.   Red was instrumental in capping the 1979 wild well.  Unfortunately, Red Adair is  no longer with us and the previous incident does not provide much hope for a happy ending.

Like the IXTOC I, The Deepwater Horizon Ultimately Collapsed

The Deepwater Horizon rig was a semi-submersible, state of the art drilling platform leased by British Petroleum.  The location was about 65 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River but it was drilling in depths of 1520 meters (about 5000 feet) of water in the Mississippi Canyon sector 252.  It was meteorological station number 42916 and  was about 150 miles SE of New Orleans.   Back in 1979, it was a little different situation.  The IXTOC I was a semi-submersible rig located about 600 miles SSE of Brownsville Texas in the Bay of Campeche.  It was drilling at a depth of about 11,000 feet below the ocean floor in just a few hundred feet of water.  While the cause of the current Horizon blowout is unknown, the IXTOC blowout was the result of a loss of drilling mud in the casing.  The general idea of mud in the shaft is to equal pressure throughout and allow for monitoring of gas.  Without the mud, there was a buildup of gas pressure that blew out the well.  The oil ignited  and the rig collapsed. 

IXTOC I in Bay of Campeche in 1979

 Now, there are supposed to be blow out preventers and several layers of “fail safe” back ups to prevent such an incident.  But,  just like the Titanic was not supposed to be able to sink, anything that man builds can and does fail.  It doesn’t happen often but it does happen.  A big difference between the current incident and the IXTOC I was the water depth.  There was a bunch of wreckage blocking the wellhead but divers and submersibles were able to work at the site.  In the case of the Horizon, divers are not able to go to such depths and the environment is extremely dark naturally.  With the presence of oil, visibility will be quite difficult.  Throw in the fact that there are probably quite chaotic currents in the Mississippi Canyon at those depths and submersibles are very difficult to operate. 

Red Adair Helped Cap IXTOC I and It Will Take the Work of the Next Generation of Wild Well Men to Cap the Deepwater Horizon Well

At IXTOC, divers were eventually able to reach and activate the blowout preventer on the ocean floor but pressures built up by the well resulted in valves that began to rupture.  The blowout preventer was subsequently reopened to prevent it from being destroyed.  As an alternative, two relief wells were drilled to relieve pressure and that allowed for the well to be capped.  Here’s the bad news.  It took about 9 1/2 months to complete the work. In the meantime, oil flowed at the rate of 10,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day.  Notice I said “barrels.”  That is what is the common unit of measure for oil.  The media uses that term when it comes to trading other economic activity.  But, in recent years when its a ecological matter, they go to gallons.  The argument as to why they do that is because, in journalism, you are to write conversationally.  Most people don’t know how much a barrel of oil but everyone knows the volume of a gallon.  The only trouble with that argument is that they don’t apply the “coversational” principal consistently.  I submit that since a barrel of oil is 42 US gallons, then it makes the numbers 42 times larger and therefore more headline grabbing than if they used barrels.  No one seems quite sure of how much oil is flowing from the Horizon blowout, but most media estimates seem to be between 3000 and 5000 barrels per day.  I just heard a newscaster say “200,000 gallons a day.”   If that estimate is correct, then it’s a long way from the IXTOC disaster which was the worst oil spill in history aside from the deliberate destruction of the oil wells in Kuwait. 

Initial Weather Conditions Initially Took Oil North but General Current Pattern Should Take it East and then Possibly Southeast

So, while the numbers are large, even Forbes Magazine points out that the world has seen far worse.  However, I disagree somewhat with the point that the article  makes.  It says that,  in order for this to surpass the 3 million barrels of oil (126 million gallons) of oil spewed out into the Gulf by IXTOC,  the Horizon well would have to continue its current pace for 200 days.   I say, “so what?”  Hey it took them over 9 months to cap that well.  This well is in a far more inhospitable an environment than the IXTOC I, which may hamper the capping efforts.  Its proximity to so many populated areas and economic concerns adds to the potential problems.  Then, when one considers the natural ocean currents takes the flow generally to the East and then Southeast, you consider that almost the entire US Gulf Coast is at risk.  If that is not enough, then it’s not totally out of the question that the flow could get caught up in the circulation that feeds into the Gulf Stream which would take the flow through the Florida Straits and off the US East Coast toward England!

Oil on South Texas Beach in 1979; Notice How it Globs Together

Will all of that happen?  Probably not.  First off, they will most likely have to drill relief wells in order to slow the flow from the original well. Given that the Horizon was drilling at some 18,000 feet deep, estimates are that it would take about 3 months for that to come about.  Then, there is also the consideration that this oil tends to glob together after a period of time.  We used to call them “tar balls” and they were  a nuisance when we went to  the beach in Galveston.  While the tar balls would no doubt be much larger and more numerous, it may not affect the marine life quite as much as feared.  Also, the ocean itself will probably break some of it up and a certain amount will evaporate.  Still, its potentially an enormous disaster.  A fly in the ointment of all of this is hurricane season.  I’m not sure if anyone is really sure how a tropical cyclone would affect the oil.  Would it break it up?  Would it spread it out?  It’s not clear.  What is certain is that the effects will continue for a long time and it will be interesting how long it takes the media to move on to another subject.  Marine life will be greatly adversely affected.  The economies of coastal communities will suffer and it will bring great economic hardship to all the people whose livelihood depends on the ocean.  Let us hope  that this incident does not come close to rivaling the IXTOC I disaster.  It’s bad enough as it is.

Weather Bottom Line:  Look for temperatures to warm to the mid to perhaps upper by Wednesday.  A cold front will try to come though Wednesday night and will get close enough to raise the chances for rain and t’storms but it will retreat in response to another system behind it.  That system will be much stronger.  With a good amount of moisture to work with as well as higher temperatures, that front will have plenty to work with for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.  Following that look for temperatures for Mother’s Day Weekend about 20 degrees cooler than they had been.