Are a you against HR 3200, or against Health Care Reform in General? Hurricane Forecast Reformed August 13, 2009

This Screaming Angry Lady is For Health Care Reform, is she un-American for her passion?

Are you against Healthcare Reform?  Snow White and I were on a trip and I listened to satellite radio most of the time in the car.  The topic on all of the news stations was Health Care.  Alan Colmes was interesting because he accused the protesters of being uncivil because they shout down their opponents then he proceeded to shout down any caller who disagreed.  I spoke with a friend of mine who runs a business.  Previously, he said that when his taxes get raised, he’s going to let some employees go because he’s not going to make less money.  Perhaps a real-life example of true consequences.  Anyway, we were discussing the health care plan and he pointed out that the president says that you can keep your health care coverage if you like it.  But, he will be offered an incentive to cancel his coverage for his employees.  If he does not offer health care, then he simply pays a 10% fee, which is cheaper to him than covering his employees.  So, there will be a number of companies that will end that benefit to save on the bottom line and force their employees into the public option.  There are those that say page 16 of the plan says that you can keep your coverage but the insurance companies cannot sign up any new people to that plan.  Thus, eventually there will be no one with that coverage and any new employees will be forced into the public option.  You can read HR Bill 3200 here to draw your own conclusion.  Then there is the argument that President Obama created when he pointed out how well FedEx and UPS do in competing with the US Postal Service.  First off, it shows and government operation that does more poorly than the private sector so why would we expect health care to be done better by the government.  Further, it also illustrates that the government can operate at a loss and still stay in business which means that the government has an unfair competitive advantage over the private sector that cannot stay in business if it loses money year after year. 

These people oppose the Bill does that mean they are against health care reform or just this bill? Are they more un-American than other protesters?

 But, this raises the question of whether it is right to call someone un-American or label them against health care reform just because they don’t like this particular bill or the proposals of others. Many people suggest that they agree that there needs to be reform, but they would favor Tort Reform and removal of prevention of availability of health care plans between states.  The argument is that it would lower costs and create more competition which would lower costs.  As it is now, you can’t go to another state for coverage like you can with auto insurance and there is no provision for tort reform in the current bill.  Still others say that if you want government health care, it should just be for those who are unemployed or do not have access to health care and that is all.  If someone is against this bill, does that mean that they are against health care reform?  With all of the tumult, why not send Congress back to the drawing board to come up with a plan that is more popular with more people?

TD 2 12Z 08.13.09 Spaghetti Model

TD 2 12Z 08.13.09 Intesity Spaghetti Model

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University revised their predictions for the 2009 Hurricane Season downward again, which is not suprising since an El Nino developed a few months ago.  When there is an El Nino, the Atlantic tends to have more frequent periods of strong westerly upper level winds that are hostile to tropical cyclone development and maintanance.  In my mind though, the latest prediction remains pretty aggressive considering that as of this writing, there has not been a single named tropical cyclone.  Nevertheless, the Colorado State tropical weather experts forecast 11 named storms with 5 of those storms becoming hurricanes.  They say that this is below average, yet up to a few years ago, the average was something like 10 storms and 6 hurricanes.  I suppose the increased activity of the past several years has raised the average.  The National Hurricane Center also revised their forecast downward and calls for a 50-50 chance of a near normal season.  Really going out on a limb.  They have a 40% probability than fewer than average storms in the North Atlantic. 

Invest 90 Spaghetti Model

Invest 90 Intensity Spaghetti model

Still, there have been no named storms in the North Atlantic and we’re heading into the heart of the Hurricane Center.  In my mind, it is not surprising that the forecast was revised downward, but that it wasn’t lower than it was initially and that it continues to be as high as it is.

Anyway, the past week is probably the most active time we’ve seen all year.  There have been a couple of strong tropical waves coming off of Africa and there are a few areas of disturbed weather in the  Caribbean.  The two waves have the best potential.  The first is the second tropical depression of the season.  The general direction forecast by a majority of the models is for this guy to move west northwest and then eventually curve into the Central Atlantic.  There is probably a better chance for it to affect Bermuda than it is the United States.  The second one (Invest 90)  has a forecast track that is more westerly and may be more of a threat.  In both cases,  the majority of the models make them tropical storms with a few outliers calling for hurricane development down the road. The others in the Caribbean probably won’t pose much of a problem as conditions aren’t too good, but they bear watching.

Weather Bottom Line:  The front is way to our south and will stay there.  Look for dry conditions with warm afternoons in the upper 80′s and lows fairly comfortable in the 60′s with relatively low humidity.  We should slowly become more uncomfortable as we head into the weekend with increasing humidity.

No Hurricanes Yet: Due to El Nino, Global Warming or Neither; US V.P. wanted for murder July 11, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season began June 1. Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives. 7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly. Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season. The most ferocious for the US was Hurricane Ike and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos. The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes. The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about. People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992. Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since.

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project. This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes. There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes. This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino was anticipated as the season unfolds. It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming. However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes. In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity. Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world. So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

Last year, A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite. Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did. Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study. This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

 So, now it’s official from NOAA, El Nino is upon us.  What that typically means is a risk for big storms on the Pacific Northwest coast this winter along with a cooler and wetter winter season for the southern plains, among other things.  One of those other things is a limitation of tropical development in the Atlantic basin.  The experts took the notion of a weak El Nino into consideration when they made their initial forecast.   Can we expect a dramatic revision downward in the hurricane forecast or is the El Nino data in line with their supposition?  Personally, I’m not so sure  that humans have enough understanding of the atmosphere and factors involved in tropical storm development to be making long term tropical forecasts.  The forecasts get revised every so often during the year so at the end, they come close, but the initial prognostications are often way way off.  We’ll see. It’s still pretty early in the hurricane season and lack of activity through mid July by no means is a predictor for the rest of the season, which typically peeks in early September.

Aaron Guns Down Alex

 On This Date In History: In recent years, we have heard the “I” word tossed about rather liberally. That word is impeach.

 President Andrew Johnson was impeached but was not convicted by one vote. President Clinton was impeached but also avoided removal from office as the Senate did not vote for conviction. Today, we haven’t heard of anyone calling for the impeachment of  the current president or vice-president.  Yet.  Someone probably will before President Obama’s 4 years are up.  There were certainly those who wanted to impeach President Bush and even Vice-President Cheney.   These calls came from allegations of malfeasance. But on this date in 1804, there is no doubt about it…the Vice-President of the United States gunned down Revolutionary War hero Alexander Hamilton.

Peter Charles Hoffer Wrote About Burr Treason Trials

Hamilton had been an aide-de-camp of Washington during the war and later led a crucial attack at the Battle of Yorktown. He became the first Secretary of the Treasury and served in that capacity for 6 years before retiring. He then formed the Federalist Party, the first political party in America. He detested Thomas Jefferson and the two developed what became known as Hamiltonian ideals and Jeffersonian ideals. Basically, Hamilton wanted a strong central government and Jefferson was for a weak central government with most of the power belonging to the states. Today, Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Burr's 1807 Treason Trial

 Anyway, in 1804, Burr was the sitting Vice-President under Jefferson and Hamilton had made some unsavory remarks about Burr, who responded with a challenge to a duel! Hamilton had been famous for dueling but had ironically pushed to outlaw the practice in New York. So, Hamilton and Burr went across the river to New Jersey. On this date in 1804, two shots rang out in Weehawken, New Jersey. Hamilton lay mortally wounded. There is great speculation regarding the incident as many suggest that Hamilton missed on purpose as he was a veteran duelist and a good shot. But there were procedures if one was to desire to not shoot one’s opponent. Hamilton did not follow the procedures. Witnesses could not determine who fired first. But what did happen, is that Burr was forced to stay out of New York for the remainder of his term as murder charges were filed. He is now left to nothing more as a footnote to history, though he was later tried for treason. Alexander Hamilton, on the other hand, has lived in immortality as the face of the ten dollar bill.

 Henry Clay in 1809 was in a Kentucky duel. He was lucky. Both he and his opponent were lousy shots.

 While Dick Cheney did in fact shoot his friend with a shotgun blast, the calls for his impeachment had nothing to do with his shooting prowess.

SPC Severe Risk Sat 8am to Sun 8am

SPC Sun Severe Risk Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Saturday is here and a cold front is on its way.  By 9 am it appeared on the radar that a line of t’storm was trying to form along the front between a strong line that extended from near Cleveland and Indy and another cluster associated with a shortwave on the front that was in Southern Illinois.  This would suggest that the risk for t’storms with the initial frontal approach will be in the late afternoon or evening in the Louisville region, which will be the heat of the day.  Guess here is that wind will be the main severe risk with perhaps some hail.  The SPC doesn’t have us in the risk for tornadic activity but,  I can tell you that studies have shown that a large number of the twisters that happen in our area are little guys that spin up and go away quickly along bow echoes…so I wouldn’t put that concern totally to bed.  Nevertheless, if you get damage from wind in a small tornado or strong straight line winds or a downburst, the results are the same so it’s really not relevant except that people like say they were hit by a tornado rather

Tornado probability

than strong wind. Guess it sounds sexier.  Anyway, the local NWS office puts the threat between 1 pm and 9 pm and I suspect that John Gordon’s folks are looking at the same line that I am.  Now, what will happen is that the front will get hung up near our area so the threat for t’storms will be with us for several days as little short waves move along the stalled boundary.  The threats each day will be dependent on the timing of the waves and the exact position of where the front will be lined up and forecasting that at this point is above my paygrade and more of a crap shoot call for anyone, so I shant try to pinpoint that as it will probably be wavering about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

Severe Wind Probability

   
   VALID 111300Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
   INTO OH VALLEY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH RIVER VALLEY…
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE

Severe Hail probability

GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
   CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HEATING THROUGH THE 70S F INTO MUCH OF
   PA/NY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
   ONTARIO/LOWER MI…WITH 80-90F TEMPS SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING…SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PORTIONS OF OH INTO WRN-CENTRAL PA/NY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES.  ACTIVITY
   WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD
   ESEWD WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   UNDER 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
  
   FARTHER SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY…REGION WILL REMAIN ON
   FRINGES OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER…AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
   MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF
   SLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
  
   …CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK OVER SWRN SD WHICH ARE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING.  MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD
   AWAIT AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASCENT
   AHEAD OF SUBTLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING STORMS LATER TODAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS…WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A
   FEW CLUSTERS/LINES PERSISTING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
   DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
  
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ND/NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  REGION REMAINS UNDER
   INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WITH RESULTANT DRY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER…ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF DIGGING IMPULSE FOR
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   INTO THE EVENING.  SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SD
   OVERNIGHT AND MAY FEED ELEVATED TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF MN WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/11/2009

2009 Hurricane Season Forecast. Will Global Warming Reduce The Number of Hurricanes? May 20, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season begins in less than two weeks.  Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives.  7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly.  Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season.   The most ferocious  for the US was Hurricane Ike  and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos.  The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes.  The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990′s and that seems to have come about.  People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992.  Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since. 

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project.   This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes.  There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes.  This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino is being anticipated as the season unfolds.  It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming.  However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes.  In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity in recent years.  Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world.   So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

 Last year,   A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite.  Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did.  Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study.  This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

Hey, it’s going to do what its going to do, whatever the cause.   We currently have a system that has been traversing the Florida Peninsula bringing welcome rain.  For several days, the National Hurricane Center has been threatening to send out a Hurricane Hunter to investigate even though they admitted the chances of it turning tropical was minimal.  They keep cancelling the flights and have now said that they will stop making special reports.  However, it will be interesting to see what they will do in the coming days as the models suggest the low will move into the middle of the Gulf and not along the Gulf Coast, as previously indicated.  It remains progged to be around a 1008 mb low, which is below standard sea level pressure but not all that low.  It will give the boys at the NHC something to talk about and use as a PR tool as we head into the hurricane season, which starts June 1.

NAM Fri Eve has 1006 mb low in Gulf

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY…AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION…LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

Good Weekend For a Cruise on the Belle of Louisville

Weather Bottom Line:

  The ridge continues to hang out and will do so through the weekend.  Shower activity will be supressed and the temperatures will elevate into the mid 80′s as we move through the end of the week into the weekend. Enjoy it.  Snow White and I are going on a bike ride this afternoon.  Yesterday we saw Star Trek and she liked it so much, she wanted to see it again….like right then.  Never knew she was a trekkie.  It was good though.  I love McCoy and Scotty.  They have some great lines.