Philippines spared from Typhoon Lupit and Probably so is everyone else. October 23, 2009

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track 12Z 10.23.09 Click Image for most recent update

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop Click for most recent

Looks like an “I told you so” is in order.  When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm.   The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north.  I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

Well, it wasn’t just a wobble.  It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines.  The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast.  So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest.    The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines.  It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape.    Or, you may say that prayers were answered.  Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.

Dry Air Intrusion Shows Up Well on Water Vapor Imagery Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON A 230937Z WINDSAT AND 231006Z SSMI IMAGE. BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE
OF THE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
LLCC HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF LUPIT, CAUSING DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
VISIBLE IN THE IMAGERY, IS NOW LOCATED OVER TAIWAN AND IS BRIEFLY
ALLOWING TS 22W TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS CHANNEL
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TS 22W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN LIGHT OF
THE DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. LUPIT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).

I Told You So!

3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK AS THE STR TO THE EAST OF LUPIT
HAS STARTED TO ENHANCE, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW AS THE STR HAS ONLY STARTED TO BUILD.
    B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF LUPIT
CONTINUES TO INTRUDE UPON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 HOWEVER, WBAR, ECMF AND GFS SHOW THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
UNDER THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION COULD
POSSIBLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
ELEMENT IN THE WEAKENING OF TS 22W.//
NNNN

40 Yrs after Apollo 11; Invest 97L, Teens sails solo around the world; Aussie Girl set to do better July 20, 2009

 

Collins, Forgotten Hero?

On This Date In History:

On this date in 1969, Neil Armstrong and Edwin E. Aldrin, Jr. landed on the moon. Michael Collins was left behind in the command module (Columbia) orbiting the moon. Armstrong and Aldrin had landed in the Lunar Module (LEM) called the “Eagle” with but 1 second of fuel remaining. It was nearly a catastrophe. “Houston” was the first word ever spoken from the moon…a point of pride for Texans. The first seven words were, “Houston, Tranquility Base, the Eagle has Landed.” They had landed in the “sea of tranquility” on the moon, a name given to a region that appeared to have few craters or boulders. I’ll spare you more details and let you look it all up yourself, though here is one site with an interesting angle.

Tough to Pull off in 1969

But consider this….the earth spins at 1100 mph. The moon is 243,000 miles from the earth and rotates around the rotating earth in 28 day cycles. Space is 3 degrees Kelvin, or 3 degrees above absolute zero which is when all molecular activity stops. There is no atmosphere. It is the most inhospitable place for any human. There were no micro computers and not even calculators. In order to pull it off, calculations had to be extremely precise. The burning of the engines had to be down to the millisecond. All angles had to be exact as well as speed and acceleration. Any slight mishap would spell disaster. Engineers relied on slide rules and theory. Armstrong, Collins and Aldrin as well as all astronauts, even today, are extremely brave frontiersman. It is absolutely unimaginable what happened on this date in 1969. By all rights, it shouldn’t have happened. It is one of the few times that “Yankee Ingenuity” truly lived up to its billing. If you know physics, you know how remarkable this was…if you don’t…take my word for it, it was unbelievable.  Perhaps more unbelievable is that at the time, I was running around trying to spend the night at David Cruce’s house while everyone was watching on tv.  My parents just said, “yes”.  I bet when I wasn’t home the next morning that they had to think about where I was.

Perhaps more unbelievable, my daughter was born on this date on the 25 year anniversary of America’s greatest triumph.

Zac-No Trouble Getting a Date

Around the World:  Parents today want to keep an extra eye on their kids.  I’ve never seen so many parents at kids football practices, particularly mothers making sure that the coaches aren’t mean to the kids.  That’s especially true around here since the death of a high school player last year.  But, parents in California allowed their 16 year old son miss school…for a year.  Zac Sunderland was allowed to sail solo around the world.  Here was the NPR story of his bon voyage.  Last week, the now 17 year old Sunderland returned safely in his sailboat to California as the youngest person ever to sail around the world.  Quite a feat and quite an addition to the young man’s resume.  I’m sure he’s got some stories to tell…some I’m sure he won’t tell his mother about. 

Jessica: Better than the boys?

But, it apparently was not an “unassisted” voyage.  Unassited apparently means that one cannot get any help, take on any supplies or materials and all repairs must be made without any outside help or material.  So, this Aussie 16 year old girl is going to try to sail solo around the globe unassisted and one-up Zac..a case of anything you can do, I can do better.

Invest 97L July 19 2009

Invest 97L Spaghetti Model 7.19.09

Invest 97L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 7.19.09

Weather Bottom Line:  First off, we finally have something to talk about in the tropics but it’s not much.  Invest 97L is, on the one hand, is looking a bit more organized but still appears as but a swirl of clouds and should run into some unfavorable upper level winds over the next day or so. But that’s near term and, on the other hand, some models are kinda agressive and the general flow pattern should take it on a northwesterly track up toward the Yucatan Channel, which is the opening to the Gulf.  The GFS hasn’t really picked up on it much but the NAM wants to put it south of Florida, sorta over Cuba as a low in 84 hours.  You can see that there are but a few of the 18Z hurricane models that have picked up a track and I suspect that, if this guy doesn’t go away, the other models will begin picking up on it.  Nothing to get too worked up over but it is something to look at because of the 7 models providing an intensity outlook, 5 make it a tropical storm, one only makes it a depression and one is off the reservation, calling for a Category 2 hurricane. 

I Told You So!

Locally, I told you it would be cool.  Record low high temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday with afternoon highs in mid/late July of 69 and 72 respectively.  Showers Sunday afternoon were pretty few and far between. I thought it would be too dry for much.  We begin moderating and move to the upper 70′s and low 80′s as we move through the first few days of the week.  Nice stretch.

Raising Taxes on Fat Cats May Hurt All of Us; Create Your Own Dimples! May 19, 2009

 

Fat Cats Don't Work...They Just Sit Around, Drink Beer, Watch TV and Count Their Money!

Hauser Law Is Very Interesting....Look at that 90% Tax Rate!

Soak The Rich is Not a Panacea: 

When the tax debate arises, we hear one side say that “we just want everyone to pay their fair share.”  The opponents to this line of thinking almost always trot out the statistics that show that in 2006 the top 1% of taxpayers paid nearly 40% of all individual income taxes paid and that the top 5% paid over 60%.  The numbers climb to over 86% for the top fourth of all tax payers.  That means that 99% of taxpayers contribute 60% of the taxes collected, 95% of taxpayers pony up 40% of  all taxes collected and that 3/4 of all taxpayers account for just 14% of taxes collected. (2008 Tax Foundation)  President Obama ran, and was elected, on a platform that pledged for no new taxes for people making less than $250,000 which in 2008 would mean that those in the top 3 or 4% of taxpayers would get their taxes raised, again referring to the Tax Foundation.  Apparently, the administration feels like the top 3 or 4 percent of taxpayers are not paying their fair share even though they already pay about half of all taxes paid.

Now, keep in mind that there is a theory out there called Hauser’s Law.  It is described below (source)

Hauser’s Law is a theory that states that in the United States, federal tax revenues will always be equal to approximately 19.5% of GDP, regardless of what the top marginal tax rate is. The theory was first suggested in 1993 by Kurt Hauser, a San Francisco investment economist, who wrote at the time, “No matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP.“.

So, if taxes are always 19.5% of GDP, then we need to increase the GDP and lead the tax rates alone, right?  But, current political thought doesn’t go along with Hauser.

NYC Jobs Vs City Tax Rates

But, here is a real world consequence.  I have a friend who has a business that employs 20 some odd people.  I gave him a hard time saying that he needs to write me a check.  He told me something interesting.  He said, “I’m not going to make less money.”  So, his solution will be to let a couple of employees go.  So, raising his taxes will cost two jobs and, two additional tax payers.   The Manhattan Institute wrote some years ago an article that showed when New York City raised taxes, city jobs were lost and city jobs were gained when taxes were lowered.

Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore put out an op-ed piece on Monday in the Wall Street Journal(Soak the Rich, Lose the Rich-May 18, 2009 WSJ). 

Arthur Laffer

They point out that from 1998 to 2007, 1100 people a day moved from the nine highest state tax states, which includes CA, NJ, NY and OH and that most relocated to the non-income tax states that include FL, NV, NH and TX.  Over those years, the non-income tax states had 32% greater income growth and 89% more jobs created than their high tax state counterparts.  CT, NJ and NY in recent years increased the tax rate on those making over $200,000 to 5%, 8.97% (nearly a 50% increase) and 7.7% respectively.  In the years 2002-2005 those states all had a significant reduction in taxpayers in that bracket.  CT ranked 46th, New Jersey 49th and New York 50th in the percentage increase in wealthy tax filers during those years.   And remember, that is well before the current economic downturn.  These people simply moved. 

Stephen Moore

The problem here is that so many legislative issues regarding taxation seem to assume a static economy or static environment.  The truth is that there is a constant flux in any economy and the personal situations of any individual.  There are consequences to actions and sometimes they are unintended.

The article takes on the idea that lower taxes inevitably leads to cutting services to the poor, lower quality schools and lower police protection.   The authors boldly state, “they’re wrong.”

They point to New Hampshire having no sales tax or state income tax.  Yet, their schools produce the 4th highest test scores in the nation and spends $5000 less per student than New York.  They also cite the fact that California has the highest paid teachers with students who score second lowest in testing.

TX Gov. Rick Perry Competes on Global Scale

They wind up with Texas.  The Texas governor says that Tejas doesn’t just compete with other states, but with other nations and tries to create a competitive business environment to stay in the arena with the likes of China, France, Germany and Japan.  Texas is indeed a whole other country.  Texas has no state income tax yet, in 2008, created more jobs than the other 49 states combined.

The states with the highest tax rates are generally the ones in the most fiscal trouble.  Most of us won’t be affected by the current notion of taxing the highest income folks in our nation and states.  So, we don’t care and think it’s okay.  But, higher taxes on the big shots can negatively affect us all.  My friend will let two people go.  Wealthy taxpayers are leaving states meaning those states get nothing from people who were putting several dollars in state coffers.  Fewer jobs are created in states with high tax rates than those who have no state income taxes.  Don’t you think our lawmakers should think this out instead of playing to the crowd?  What sounds good in a speech isn’t necessarily a good solution to any problem.

Natural or a Goetze Creation?

Try the Dimple Maker on Any Part of Your Body!

On This Date in History:  A man in Berlin, Germany thought that dimples would be a good idea.  But, not everyone has dimples.  So, the Prussian Martin Goetze went to work on a device to make dimples. He found success and on this date in 1896, the US Patent office issued Patent No. 560,351 for a dimple maker.   In his patent, Goetze said, “In order to make the body susceptable to the production of artistic dimples, it is necessary…that the cellular tissues surrounding the spot…should be made susceptible to its production by means of massage…the knob of the devices arm must be set on the selected spot…the cylinder serves to mass and make the spot where the dimple is to be produced malleable.”

No Proof Goetze Had Anything To Do With Shirley

In other words, this guy makes a brace and bit device that has a rounded tip on the bit that is rotated round and round to massage the place where you want a dimple.  Good thing he had this patented….someone else may have stolen his idea.  But, I doubt if he ever acheived Shirley Temple-like dimples on anyone.  That creation came from the hand of one greater than man.  However, I’ve seen some dimples on the backside of some bikini whales down at the beach that may be from the hand of Goetze.

 

I told you so!

Weather Bottom Line: 

Enjoy the week.  Big ridge moves in.  Another cool start Tuesday but the mercury will climb as the week progresses.  Don’t be surprised to see mid 80′s by Thursday or so.  The ridge will block out everything.    It will drive a developing area of low pressure in the Bahamas across Florida and along the Gulf Coast states.  I told you yesterday to expect the National Hurricane Center to be aggressive with this system and….well…it’s another Colonel Klink Moment!   Later in the season, they would not waste the time or money sending a hurricane hunter to investigate this.  But, I suspect that it’s a good chance to test out their systems and do a run through so they will send one out on Tuesday, even though they admit there is a low probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone.  There will probably be some reporting on this due to the pre-season nature of the system which gives a good opportunity to promote the fact that hurricane season is upon us in less than two weeks.  If you’ve got plans to vaction in Florida or along the Gulf Coast in the next few days, take a deck of cards, some jigsaw puzzles and other games for the kids.  Here’s the NHC report from Wednesday:

ABNT20 KNHC 182335
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY…IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
SPECIAL OUTLOOK REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

Another Colonel Klink Moment! Friday Severe Storms, Potential Derecho! Real Time Severe Warnings Page May 8, 2009

I told you so

Fri 8AM to Sat 8 AM

Tornado Probability

To Find Real Time Severe Warnings in Your Area, CLICK HERE

If you checked the last post, then you are aware that late Thursday night I told you that the SPC would probably alter their thinking regarding the severe risk area and include us in the region.   By Friday afternoon, there was a severe thunderstorm watch for the area and a tornado watch to our southwest.  What the deal is that we have a wave running along a warm front that is in our region.  Ahead of the main vort max (the wave) we have light to moderate rain in the afternoon with some lighting.  As the wave gets closer. the t’storm activity will become more pronounced.  It is not unusual to get severe weather on warm fronts, including tornadic activity.  In this case, with most likely elevated storms as I bet the wave is running on the 850 mb front, I would think that there is a fair chance for hail.  Also, winds aloft could get dragged down and bring hail in larger storms.  Remember, the core of the wave will be cold air aloft so between the temperature lapse rate from bottom to top and the warm front itself, there will be plenty of lift.  Its not out of the question that we may even have a derecho, which is a long line of strong straight line winds that tend to last for a pretty long time.  These winds, while straight line in nature, could get caught up in a rather chaotic winds that spin up a small tornado.  With the cold air aloft, I would also expect a lot of lightning.

Friday Severe Hail Probability

The vertical profile indecies from 12Z Friday are pretty indicative and are probably what finally convinced the SPC to expand their risk area.  Both the GFS and the RUC have a SWEAT Index of around 450 in the afternoon and evening.  Even the NAM is running close to 400.  400 is generally the threshold of when one can expect to see the threat of tornadic activity increase.  Generally, if we get beyond 500, it’s almost a given that we will get something somewhere in the way of winds or tornadoes.  The winds at about 2000 feet were progged at about 75 knots.  Those winds could easily be dragged down to the ground and, with a derecho event, would certainly to just that.  A derecho event would be a dangerous high wind event that would cover at least a county wide area if not larger.  In that sense, they can be more destructive than a tornado that would affect a relatively small area.  Winds in a twister may be higher, but the coverage affected is smaller.  In this case, we have the jet stream to the north of the wave, which is helping to vent the system, really not too differently than a hurricane in some regards.  What this means is that this guy won’t go away with the cool of evening.  It’s a dynamically driven system.  So, expect this guy to roll across the state.  By the time it gets to the Appalacians late Friday night, then it may get separated from its support and start to wind down.

One thing that the models will be wrong about is the rain.  The RUC has the most and it only advertises a little more than 3/4 of an inch of rain by Friday night.  With all of the moisture getting dragged up over the warm front, methinks it may be more like double that amount if not more in some areas.

All in all, not a nice afternoon….a few hours ahead of schedule but again…it still qualifies as a Colonel Klink Moment.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
  
   VALID 081630Z – 091200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND NRN TN…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH
   THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IA AREA…
   
 

Friday Severe Wind Probability

  …TN/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   LONG LIVED BOW ECHO…MOVING EWD AT 60 KT…WAS APPROACHING THE MS
   RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON. THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING WITH
   TIME…GIVEN THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
   WITH STRONG INSTABILITY…MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG…AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR NEAR 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE..SOMETIMES EXTREME. WIND AND HAIL IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
   UNTIL IT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY WITH THE ROTATING BOW
   HEADS.
  
   …NRN TX/SERN OK/AR/NRN LA…
   COLD FRONT AT MID MORNING EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX
   NEAR LBB. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A SGF-ADM-MAF LINE
   BY 23Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700
   MB…AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MOST
   OF THE DAY. DESPITE NO REAL DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH…MODELS
   DEPICT A SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT… ESPECIALLY IN AND WEST OF THE
   ARKLATEX. ALL OPERATIONAL/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
   ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN OK/NRN TX AFTER 22Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
   LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
   AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM INDICATE VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
   BE THE MAIN THREAT.
  
   …CAROLINAS…..
   REMNANT MCS FROM WRN NC INTO NERN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
   INTO A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS…2000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT…UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS AT 20
   TO 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS
   AFTERNOON…WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
  
   …IA/NWRN IL AND SWRN WI…
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB/SD WILL TRACK EWD TO NEAR
   THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 00Z. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT…500 MB
   TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -22C…MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES…40-50
   KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET
   MAX SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.
  
   ..IMY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
  
   VALID 081630Z – 091200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND NRN TN…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH
   THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IA AREA…
  
   …TN/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   LONG LIVED BOW ECHO…MOVING EWD AT 60 KT…WAS APPROACHING THE MS
   RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON. THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING WITH
   TIME…GIVEN THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
   WITH STRONG INSTABILITY…MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG…AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR NEAR 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE..SOMETIMES EXTREME. WIND AND HAIL IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
   UNTIL IT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY WITH THE ROTATING BOW
   HEADS.
  
   …NRN TX/SERN OK/AR/NRN LA…
   COLD FRONT AT MID MORNING EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX
   NEAR LBB. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A SGF-ADM-MAF LINE
   BY 23Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700
   MB…AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MOST
   OF THE DAY. DESPITE NO REAL DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH…MODELS
   DEPICT A SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT… ESPECIALLY IN AND WEST OF THE
   ARKLATEX. ALL OPERATIONAL/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
   ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN OK/NRN TX AFTER 22Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
   LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
   AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM INDICATE VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
   BE THE MAIN THREAT.
  
   …CAROLINAS…..
   REMNANT MCS FROM WRN NC INTO NERN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
   INTO A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS…2000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT…UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS AT 20
   TO 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS
   AFTERNOON…WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
  
   …IA/NWRN IL AND SWRN WI…
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB/SD WILL TRACK EWD TO NEAR
   THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 00Z. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT…500 MB
   TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -22C…MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES…40-50
   KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET
   MAX SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.
  
   ..IMY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
  
   VALID 081630Z – 091200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND NRN TN…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH
   THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IA AREA…
  
   …TN/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   LONG LIVED BOW ECHO…MOVING EWD AT 60 KT…WAS APPROACHING THE MS
   RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON. THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING WITH
   TIME…GIVEN THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
   WITH STRONG INSTABILITY…MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG…AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR NEAR 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE..SOMETIMES EXTREME. WIND AND HAIL IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
   UNTIL IT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY WITH THE ROTATING BOW
   HEADS.
  
   …NRN TX/SERN OK/AR/NRN LA…
   COLD FRONT AT MID MORNING EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX
   NEAR LBB. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A SGF-ADM-MAF LINE
   BY 23Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700
   MB…AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MOST
   OF THE DAY. DESPITE NO REAL DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH…MODELS
   DEPICT A SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT… ESPECIALLY IN AND WEST OF THE
   ARKLATEX. ALL OPERATIONAL/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
   ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN OK/NRN TX AFTER 22Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
   LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
   AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM INDICATE VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
   BE THE MAIN THREAT.
  
   …CAROLINAS…..
   REMNANT MCS FROM WRN NC INTO NERN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
   INTO A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS…2000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT…UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS AT 20
   TO 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS
   AFTERNOON…WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
  
   …IA/NWRN IL AND SWRN WI…
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB/SD WILL TRACK EWD TO NEAR
   THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 00Z. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT…500 MB
   TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -22C…MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES…40-50
   KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET
   MAX SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.
  
   ..IMY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2009

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No John Wayne Justice: Strong Storms Sunday April 5, 2009

No Justice For John Wayne and No John Wayne Justice

Marion Morrison on the USC gridiron

On This Date In History

John Wayne got fired on this date in 1931 by Fox studios. Wayne had been born in Iowa but moved to Glendale, CA as a child. He was a star football player at Glendale High School and went to USC on a scholarship. He quit school after two years and in 1928 signed on with Fox after working there doing manual labor. I guess the honchos at Fox didn’t see much in his small roles, so they canned him. He had been using the name Duke Morrison. His real name was Marion Morrison and he took the name of his family dog as a first name. A director at Fox, Raoul Walsh claims he “discovered” Wayne and suggested he use Anthony Wayne, after a Revolutionary War Hero. Fox studios thought it sounded “too italian” so Walsh suggested John Wayne. He had befriended John Ford early in his career and after making several lousy movies for several years for Lonestar/Monogram pictures, including parts as a singing cowboy, Ford cast him in Stagecoach in 1939. The legend of John Wayne was born.

 

Dern as the Notorious Longhair

Duke Gives Dern ("Longhair") Some Real Justice

In short, Fox blew it. But they can claim to have at least given him his final name. See, he was initially given the name Marion Robert Morrison. But his parents had another child and they wanted to call him Robert. So, they changed Marion’s middle name to Michael. Then he became Duke and finally John Wayne. I suppose Fox probably trumpets that they gave John Wayne his name and Raoul Walsh claims he “discovered” Wayne but the truth is that Fox fired a treasure, both in culture and at the box office, and John Ford created Wayne. In my book, Fox Studio chief Winfield Sheehan and Bruce Dern and the bartender in The Shootist are all linked together in the netherworld. Sheehan fired John Wayne, Bruce Dern shot him in the back in The Cowboys as did the bartender in The Shootist. The trio are definitely the biggest scoundrels in cinematic history!!!

Invaders Posed Before Going on Warpath

Bad Guys Even Lynched Ella Watson!

You’d Never See This Type of Justice in a John Wayne Movie: 

By the late 1880′s, cattle ranching in the west had already gone corporate.  The business was monopolized by companies headquartered in New York and London.  The big operators controlled the Wyoming Stock Growers Association and regularly grazed their cattle on government lands, which was illegal, and put the squeeze on the small, independent ranchers.  The Association used their money for political influence and gained the support of both US Senators and the acting governor as well as the state legislature.  The state passed the Maverick Law, which said that any unbranded cattle that was found became the property of the Association.   That allowed the cattle barons to run around seizing the little guy’s cattle that was unmarked.   So, the ranchers retaliated by rustling the barons’ cattle.  After a pretty tough winter that killed lots of livestock, the Association hired “cattle detectives”  who went out to “exterminate” the rustlers, meaning the small ranchers.  On this date 1892, these “detectives” went out into Johnson County, Wyoming with a few dozen Texas gunman as part of their firepower.   The Johnson County Range War was on.

TA Ranch Served As Fort

The first stop was the ranch of Nick Champion who had organized a homesteader round-up of maverick cattle.  Champion watched as his friend, Nick Ray, was gunned down and then held off the motley crew for several hours until they set fire to a wagon and sent it into his cabin.  Champion tried to flee but was cut down in a hail of gunfire.  Two down, more to go.  The mob went to the Johnson County seat of Buffalo.  But, Sheriff Red Angus got word of the impending onslaught and so he did what any good sheriff would do…he raised a posse!  The posse met the barons’ marauders head on and forced them into a make-shift fort at the TA ranch.  Other settlers came to the aid of the posse and soon there were 300 guns surrounding the holed up “detectives.” 

Angus Had a Great Moustache

Now, remember, the barons had lots of cash and influence.  So they got word to their Senators who in turn went in the middle of the night to roust President Benjamin Harrison from bed and tell him to send the cavalry.  Naturally, Harrison acquiesced and sent the cavalry to bail out the invaders.  Just as Red Angus’ men were moving toward the fort with a load of dynamite, the cavalry arrived.  The barons and their band of gunmen got thrown in jail.  But, the political power of the barons had the trial moved to Cheyenne, which was an Association stronghold.  People who witnessed the killing of Ray and Champion were taken out of the state prior to the trial and Johnson County ran out of money after paying for the invaders detention in jail.  Out of funds, the charges were dropped and the barons and their henchmen were set free.  As I said…this never would have happened in a John Wayne movie.

Sunday Convective Outlook SPC

I told you so

Weather Bottom Line:  Forecast continues on track.  Saturday was beautiful, though we only made it to the low 60′s.  Wall to wall sunshine though made it a great day to get out.  I guess the economy isn’t bad for people if they have a job because the mall parking lots were full.  When your in a position  like me though…you simply drive by the stores.  Anyway, I’ve been telling you all week that the SPC would change their tune and start acknowledging the severe risk for our area and, in fact, they finally are getting with the game.  The indecies all week on the vertical profile model runs have been quite impressive.  As I had mentioned earlier in the week, the timing of this system will be much better than the previous events which came as the sun was setting or had already set.  This one will come in the afternoon so I suspect the storms will be on the upswing, not dying out.    One possible inhibiting factor may be that there will not be ample time for a return of moisture which helps make the atmosphere more bouyant.  However, there should be sufficient moisture and warmth to provide some instability and potential energy to work with strong wind dynamics aloft to support strong storms. 

I’m using the 18Z runs from Saturday for this analysis and it probably won’t change much for the later runs.  If the GFS is correct, then we get hammered.  It has a SWEAT index of 563, Lifted

SPC Sunday Tornado Probabililty

Index of -5.3, Total Totals of 59 and a CAPE of 1164.  It brings the action in the afternoon.  But the NAM is far less aggressive.  It doesn’t bring the action in until sunset and the SWEAT index is a formidable, but far less menacing 432.  The other indecies with the NAM are also less ferocious.  My guess is that we will be somewhere in between with the activity getting here prior to sunset and therefore stronger than the NAM suggests.  However, I doubt if the CAPE gets that high.  There is pretty decent veering going on an a strong vertical wind gradient so we might see some tornado warnings but most likely hail and high winds will be the most prevalent danger.  While the veering is decent overall, as I had mentioned yesterday or the day before, there are some key areas in which it seems to be more unidirectional and I betcha these storms will be hauling ass at about 40 or 50 mph to the northeast while the line moves east at about 25 mph.  In any event, I would expect a tornado watch for Sunday afternoon and evening and suggest that you stay tuned to your favorite channel or the radio just in case it gets out of hand.  Remember, it’s Palm Sunday and I’ve told you about the tornado magnetism of Palm Sunday. 

SPC Sunday Damaging Wind Probability

After that, the GFS and the NAM want to throw out snow showers for much of Monday into Monday night.  It will be chilly but I don’t think that the ground will be cold enough to allow for much accumulation.  It may be tough to get to 40 though on either day, especially Monday.  Tuesday maybe low 40′s but by late Thursday into Friday, it would appear we may be in the mix for another round of strong storms. 

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
  
   VALID 051200Z – 061200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY…
   
 

SPC Severe Hail Probability

  …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
   STATES AND SC…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE
   OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WHILE AN
   ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL LIKELY ENHANCE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN U.S.  THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR IS
   THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR.  EVEN SO…STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   PRIMARILY IN A BIMODAL FASHION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE
   PROCESSES.
  
   …OH/TN VALLEY…
  
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET…H5 100KT+…WILL EJECT ACROSS AR INTO WRN
   TN/KY BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW TO MOVE
   EAST INTO IL WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE
   OF JET AXIS.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   WARM RAPIDLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SFC LOW OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY SOUTH
   OF WARM FRONT.  THIS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS WHAT LITTLE
   INHIBITION IS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REMOVED
   QUICKLY…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION
   OF THE JET.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG SWLY SHEAR VECTORS
   WILL SUPPORT STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 45-50KT…CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES…IN
   ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL GIVEN COOL PROFILES.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE PRIMARILY LINEAR IN NATURE…THOUGH AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT.
  
   …GULF COAST/CAROLINAS…
  
   AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS THE GULF STATES TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS
   QUICKLY ACROSS SRN MS/AL/NRN FL INTO GA.  GFS/NAM ARE IN SOME
   DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF MCS THAT INITIATES OVER AL
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
   NAM INSISTS THIS CLUSTER WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO SRN SC
   WHILE GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GA/SC.  EITHER SCENARIO IS
   CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WILL ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT NWD EVOLUTION…THUS
   NWD EXPANSION OF CURRENT SLIGHT RISK INTO CNTRL GA.  OF SOME CONCERN
   WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS
   DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT.
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG WIND
   SHIFT…BUT STRONG WLY FLOW AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS SUGGEST AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD EVOLVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   GIVEN THE WEAK MODEL SIGNAL WILL OPT TO KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES
   ACROSS NRN AL/GA.  ADDITIONALLY…SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   MARGINAL ACROSS NC UNTIL EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS BUOYANCY
   SPREADS NORTH QUICKLY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL ARE THE GREATEST RISKS WITH MCS CLUSTER OVER THE GULF
   STATES…THOUGH ANY DISCRETE UPDRAFTS CERTAINLY WILL TRY TO ROTATE
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
  
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 04/05/2009

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Big Snow in Northeast; Key Finds a Tune; Klink Returns March 3, 2009

Snow Greatest on Long Island

 

I Told You So!

Total New England Snow Depth After Big Monday Snow

Northeast Snow: 

This is a Colonel Klink moment.  I think it was about 4 days ago that I said that the East Coast and particularly the Northeast would be threatened with a whomping of snow.  I also kept saying that we’d be colder than the folks on the tube were advertising and I especially couldn’t figure out how we were supposed to get above freezing on Monday.  Well, I’ll claim victory on both counts.  I subscribe to the Jackson Browne method…”forget about the losses and exagerate the wins.”    Really, the Northeast snow was a pretty easy call.  The only question was how much because that would strictly be a function of how far off the coast the storm center would run.  As it was, the highest snowfall that I found was on Long Island, New York around Setauket where reports of 12-14 inches came in.  Central Park in the Big Apple had 8 inches. (Text of numerous snow reports in the region)  The majority of the reports are in the 6-9 inch range with some higher amounts.  I’ve put a map of the snow totals as I have the preliminary reports.  Here is a listing of snow reports by the public and observers in parts of New England.

March 2009 Climate Forecast

I’ve been tracking the climate forecasts.  Initially, the story was that the Ohio Valley would be warmer than average.  Well, let’s explain that again.  You will typically hear in the media that an specific area is expected to be “colder than normal” or “warmer than normal.”  In fact, when you look at the forecast maps, what they give is a darkened area that has the probability of it being outside the realm of average.  I have never seen an area greater than 50%.  For the winter, the Ohio Valley had a 40% chance of it being warmer than average, but most of the reports by your favorite media outlet said it was forecast to be warmer than normal.  For January and February, Louisville was in the 40% chance of being warmer than normal.  The result was a split decision.  In January, Louisville had an average high of 38.1 and an avg. low of 21.6.  The 30 year average is 41 and 24.9 respectively.  So, it was in fact, colder than average and fairly significantly.  In February, preliminary analysis shows that the 30 year average high of 46.6 was eclipsed in February 2009 by last month’s 49.2.  The average low of 31.1 in Feb. 2009 was greater than the 28.5 30 year average.  For March, in spite of the real cold start, we fall under the “equal chances” of warmer or colder or average temperatures.  Now that’s a big limb to climb out on.  Look to the bottom for the next victory that I may be claiming…and if I am wrong…then I won’t comment.

Snow White and I Saw The Flag From Ft. McHenry at the Smithsonian

On This Date in History:

Artist's Idea of What Key Saw

What we have been always been taught in school was that Francis Scott Key wrote the words to the Star Spangled Banner while being held prisoner on a British ship as the Brits fleet In Baltimore Harbor bombarded Fort McHenry for 25 hours.  He looked out his small window and saw that the American flag was still hoisted high above the fort with the bombs “bursting in air.”

Well, here’s the real story.  Key was a lawyer from Georgetown.  He also was the head of peace mission who went to the British fleet in Chesapeake Bay in an attempt to secure the release of a doctor being held as a prisoner.  When Frank Key came aboard, the British received him with great courtesy and even agreed to release Dr. William Beanes.  But, somethat got in the way.  See, while Key was on board, he saw the ships preparing for an attack so the English, not being stupid, detained Key and his party aboard the sloop Minden until the attack was over.   It was from the Minden that Key saw that in the dawns early light, the flag was still there.  That gave him great inspiration and on the back of a letter, he penned the lyrics.  He decided to put his poem to a rather popular tune of the time.  That song was “To Anacreon in Heaven” (Here are the Lyrics) and was quite popular in taverns as a somewhat bawdy drinking song composed by John Stafford Smith in 1775.    It was the anthem of a London gentleman’s club (not the same thing as they are today) with the name Anacreonic Society derivinig from the moniker of a Greek poet who worshiped “Muses, Wine and Love.” 

Herb Thought A Depression Was a Good Time for a Song

Francis Scott Key’s version became an instant hit and rose quickly to near the top of patriotic songs, competing with “America the Beautiful” for the top spot.  On this Date in 1931, President Herbert Hoover was dealing with a failing economy, a tanking stock market and an oncoming depression.  Sound familiar?  Anyway, amidst all of the crisis, Hoover somehow found that it was time that the nation had an official national anthem.  Perhaps he thought that would prove to be the stimulus the economy needed.  So, 78 years ago today, Herbert Hoover signed a bill that made Key’s “Star-Spangled Banner,” put to the tune of a tavern booze song, the national anthem.  And people have been butchering it at the beginning of sporting events ever since.

NWS Tue AM Forecast Temperatures

Weather Bottom Line:  We started off in the teens on Monday morning and the airport made it to 31 in the afternoon and I doubt if anyone else was that warm.  With the wind blowing, I guarantee no one felt like it was as warm as it was.  Tuesday morning will find temperatures in the low to mid teens and then we slowly warm up…perhaps low 40′s at best but then we get into the 50′s on Wednesday and pushing toward 70 on Friday.  I had told you yesterday that there were indications that not only would we have a long wave ridge building in for the middle of the week, but also that a ridge would be building off the SE coast and that would help to block a front coming in.  The data was a bit inconclusive but I suggested that the warm weather would probably persist as I suspected the ridge would indeed build in from the Southeast and hold up any frontal activity.

The only change that I have to my suspicion is that I think that a boundary that had earlier had appeared to want to move through and bring a cold weekend will not totally get held up.  The Canadian model has this solution which is to have the boundary in the neighborhood with clouds and perhaps some rain but the really cold air will be bottled up to the north…so upper 50′s to near 60 for the weekend…a bit cooler than the last couple of days of the week but not a big change.  Now, keep in mind, the GFS wants to have it be wet from say Thursday through the weekend and holds the front way out of the way and keeps the cold air way north.  The European still wants to bring the boundary through and make it colder for Sunday but it only lasts for one day.  As I said, I suspect that the Canadian will be the winner…but we’ll see how it shakes out.

A Disasterous 1st Thanksgiving and Cold Turkey December 4, 2008

Early Arctic Blast:  Okay….may that’s hyperbole…but our average high this time of year is 49 and

Too The Cooler!

 

 

NAM 18Z Thursday Surface

we’re going to continue our trend of being at least 10 degrees below average that began on November 15.  Except for today, it’s been nothing but cold turkey for us since Thanksgiving and we’re headed back to the cooler. The front Wednesday night and Thursday morning brought some light showers a shade earlier than anticipated but the bulk of the real rain overnight with some brief, relatively insignificant light snow is still in the offing for perhaps drive time.  Keep in mind I’m writing this on Wednesday evening so my concern would be that in northern counties, air temperatures may fall below freezing and with melted snow, the roads may be wet and overpasses could produce with a few icy spots.  Probably not a huge concern but something to keep in mind.  After that…forget about the low 50′s of Wednesday or even 40′s through the weekend.  Highs in the mid 30′s will generally be the rule each day.  A secondary push of cold air on Saturday will not only reinforce the cold but also perhaps kick off some flurries or minor snow showers.

The Bird Was Safe On The First Thanksgiving

On This Date in History: While Thanksgiving has come and gone…and we learned already about the genesis of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US…Americans are taught in school about how the Indians hooked up with the Pilgrims near Plymouth Rock to have a big feast in 1621.  Now, we sit around stuffing ourselves with Turkey (not the vegetarian Snow White) and watch football games with our eyes closed and belts loosened.  Trouble is, the Puritans didn’t call themselves Pilgrims. They referred to themselves as “saints” which seems a bit presumptuous considering not too many years down the road they were burning “witches” at the stake.  The other thing is that the real first Thanksgiving was on this date in 1620 and it was in Virginia. 

The first permanent settlement in the New World was Jamestown in 1607 in the Virginia Colony and it wasn’t doing

1st Colonists in Jamestown

too well.  The settlers didn’t know what they were doing and the winters were harsh…remember this was during the mini-ice age.  Anyway, by the spring of 1610, the colonists were coming off a tough winter and only 60 of the original 409 were left.  Sounds like a good time for prayers to me!  And that’s what they did and when help arrived  in the form of a ship with food and supplies from mother England, they gave thanks with a prayer service.  I guess they weren’t a sentamental lot because they never did anything to commemorate the event.  

Fast Not Feast On 1st Thanksgiving

Two other groups came to Virginia.  They were supposed to arrive in Virginia but one(the Mayflower) ended up in Plymouth in 1620.  The other (the Margaret) made it to Virginia on December 4, 1619 and their charter read “Wee ordaine that the day of our ships arrival…in the land of Virginia shall be yearly and perpetually keept holy as a day of Thanksgiving to Almighty God.”  On December 4, 1620 they commemorated their first year in the colony, not with a feast, but instead they did the opposite and fasted as they prayed.  Guess we got that part wrong too.  The colonists who landed at what they called Berkeley Hundred didn’t get a chance to mark their second anniversary…they were all killed by Indians.  Maybe they were upset that they weren’t invited to the First Thanksgiving.

Time For Colonel Klink! Did Blackbeard Die Today? December 1, 2008

I Told You Not To Get Enthused About Snow

I told you that we wouldn’t see any snow accumulation. Even to call for a “dusting” seemed out of the realm of real possibility.   I never could figure out all of the forecasts that had “up to an inch” or anything other than snow showers with little or no accumulation.   Even that was a bit of a CYA because there was zero indication that we would get below freezing and the ground was just simply too warm.  If we get any accumulation, it will be very little and will come Monday night.  But the moisture content will probably be dispersing so anything that falls will be minor as the surface temperatures do get below freezing.  Otherwise, the forecast as previously outlined will generally hold.

Who Is He and When Did He Die?

On This Date in History:  Now here is a difficult spot for me because my source claims that Blackbeard the Pirate met his demise on this date in 1718.  Other accounts say it was a week or so before on November 22.  Given that no one really knows much about Blackbeard prior to his pirating days and accounts of events are often clouded by myth and hyperbole, its hard to know exactly what is the truth.  In any event, I’ll stick with my crack research staff and say that the man who may or may not have been Edward Teach, known as Blackbeard, died on this date in 1718 in the lagoons of North Carolina.

What A Beard!!!

It is known that Teach went to sea at a very young age, though no one knows for  certain where he was from.  After serving the British in the Spanish War of Succession as a privateer, he became a pirate, which wasn’t too unusual for privateers after the British backed out of the conflict in 1713.  He hooked up with a guy named Benjamin Hornigold who, after a few years of hijacking on the high seas, decided to retire.  Queen Anne offered a pardon, but Teach declined and took over Hornigold’s ships, which included a converted 300 ton French slave ship that sported 40 guns.  Blackbeard renamed it Queen Anne’s Revenge.

There are many tales about Blackbeard.  He got his name from the long, thick beard he grew that was such that he could braid it numerous times.  I saw a guy in Tallahassee with a braided beard.  He looked ridiculous.  He told me that if you drove a car, then you could not be considered an environmentalist.  Theorhetically, I suppose he was right but pragmatically, that doesn’t work.  He rode a bike…Blackbeard rode the high seas and was notorious for stories of being tough to work with.  He supposedly shot his own first mate because he said if he didn’t shoot some of his crew now and then, they would not know their proper position.  He was known as a big drinker and he and his crew got into wild contests.  He supposedly had a contest in which he put some sort of smoke bomb in the hold of the ship along with he and his men to see who could last the longest.  Of course, he was the last to emerge.  I forget the quote upon his late arrival from the hold. 

Anyway, in May 1718, he had  several ships full of loot and some of his ships ran aground.  Some

BlackBeard Keeping Watch

 say that he led them there on purpose so that he didn’t have to split the treasure with so many men.  He transferred the booty from the ship and left the crews of the ships marooned on an island. He then decided to accept a pardon under the Act of Grace.  But, the governor of Virginia wasn’t convinced that Teach had really given up his life of crime and wanted him eliminated.  So, he sent a group of men in shallow sloops from the James River to give chase.  Using shallow draft vessels was a strategic decision since Blackbeard often handcuffed anyone in pursuit by expertly navigating the shallow coastal waters. 

A Lt Maynard was in charge of the expedition of two ships which were temporarily given the cover of HMS status…Her Majesty’s Ship…so that they were free to do as they please without being charged as pirates themselves.  Maynard and Blackbeard exchanged blows from time to time before the two ended up with just one ship each that were both badly damaged.  Maynard ordered his men into the hold and wait for Blackbeard to board.  Teach thought that the boat was abandoned and was quite surprised when the crew emerged.  A fight ensued and, supposedly, one of Maynard’s crew fighting with Blackbeard managed to cut the pirate on the neck.  Blackbeard supposedly complemented his opponent.  His opponent accepted and then proceeeded to chop off the head of Blackbeard.  Legend is that the headless body swam three times around the ship before it was captured. 

You don’t like that account?  How about this one from the Boston News-Letter:

“

Maynard and Teach themselves begun the fight with their swords, Maynard making a thrust, the point of his sword against Teach’s cartridge box, and bent it to the hilt. Teach broke the guard of it, and wounded Maynard’s fingers but did not disable him, whereupon he jumped back and threw away his sword and fired his pistol which wounded Teach. Demelt struck in between them with his sword and cut Teach’s face; in the interim both companies engaged in Maynard’s sloop. Later during the battle, while Teach was loading his pistol he finally died from blood loss. Maynard then cut off his head and hung it from his bow.

”

So…there you have it…not sure when he was born…not sure where he was born.  Think I know he died on this date but others say November 2nd.  Not entirely sure if he was really Edward Teach and we’re not sure exactly how he died, but we do know that he eventually had his head separated from the rest of his body and it was hung from a yard arm……And then there remains the legend of Blackbeard’s treasure.  He said that it was buried somewhere and only he and the Devil knew where it was…perhaps if you go digging around on the North Carolina coast, you may find it….but watch out for a ghost with a long black beard…or maybe even a guy named Lucifer!  If you do see the ghost, ask him to clear up the story for us.

Raid Across the Border on American Town; Rain Late in the Week; The Resurrection in the Tropics-Invest 91 October 20, 2008

Rain Totals Forecast This Week; Ours will Come Thu-Sat

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I told you so!

Another Colonel Klink Moment. I told you that the official low in Louisville wouldn’t get to 36…but we said 39 and it was 41 at the airport. We’ll claim a partial victory. Now, no one lives at the airport so the low in your backyard was probably in the upper 30′s. Scottsburg and Bloomington were down to near freezing, yet they were not in the Frost Advisory area, which I still cannot figure out. Anyway, after another chilly Monday morning, the afternoon will get to the upper 60′s. A weak front comes through Monday night and there may be a very insignificant shower or two but the real story with this front will be when it comes back. The tail end of the boundary will develop a low in the Southern Plains and then come back our way, bringing rain and murkiness for late Thursday through the first part of Saturday.

Invest 91 Spaghetti Model

Also another Colonel Klink Moment regarding Tropical Depression 16. If you recall, I had said that if it stayed around long enough it might be a trouble maker. Well, now it’s called Invest 91 and has re-emerged just off the coast of Belize. The National Hurricane Center hasn’t said that it had its genesis from Tropical Depression 16 but it is. Anyway, the official forecast calls for it to go back into Central America, but you can see from the Spaghetti model that there are some computers that want to take it back toward Florida. My guess is that these guys are being influenced by the climatology parameters in the equations. Nevertheless, what I said before still holds. Invest 91 is in no way an imminent threat but, as long as this guy lurks, eventually it may get picked up toward the north and so it needs to be monitored.

Unsuspecting Town Before Confederate Raid

On This Date in History: On this date in 1864, a group of Confederate raiders were basking in the success of a raid into Union territory. Big deal, right? I mean the Confederate Army was wandering all over the North during the Civil War but by October 1864, most of the action was taking place in Southern territory. But, these guys didn’t strike where you might think.

This was the cavalry…about 20 of them organized by Confederate Agent George Sanders and let by Lt. Bennett Young. The plan was to quickly swoop into an unsuspecting town. This they accomplished when Young stood on the steps of a local hotel with guns drawn and proclaimed that the small town was in the possession of the Confederate States of America. The Rebels galloped up and down the Main Street and forced the locals into the village green. Then the cavalrymen went to the town’s banks and took all of their money. There they forced patrons and bank tellers to pledge allegiance to the Confederacy. I guess that they were in a hurry to leave, which doesn’t sound like the town was really in possession of the Confederacy…more like just a short loan as they left after about 30 minutes of marauding. They tried to burn the town but somehow only managed to burn down a shed. And as they scampered away, much of the money they stole fell to the ground but they still managed to make off with about $200,000.

And so, on this date in 1864, the cavalrymen were no doubt counting their loot…in Canada, though they were eventually held by the authorities. You see, this little known of raid was the farthest excursion north of any forces of the Old South. The town was St. Albans. And it resided near the scenic Lake Champlain in Vermont! The raiders on this date in history were safe, in Canada, from which the entire caper began.

Local Hero?

Here’s the kicker….Bennett H. Young was just 21 when he led the raid. After creating an international incident, he returned to the Confederacy with the money as a hero. He was promoted to General. He returned to his home state after the war and became one of the state’s best lawyers. The state? Kentucky. And the town in which he practiced was Louisville. I’m not certain, but I believe he was a member of Second Presbyterian Church. Here is a brief biography.