Gomer Pyle Moment: Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! January 9, 2009

Surprise Surprise Surprise!

 

 

So Many Surprises I had to break out Gomer Pyle

40% Chance Of Being Warmer...where Does that leave the other 60%?

First Surprise…the climate….Now the boys at the Climate Prediction Center came out with their annual winter forecast.  It was widely reported by TV foofs that they “predicted a warmer than normal winter” for the Ohio Valley.  Not surprisingly, the reporting was not accurate as what the CPC actually predicted was that there was a 40% chance  (when you click on the link…check out the cool waterfall link) it would be a warmer than average Dec-Feb for the region, which I surmised at the time must mean that there was a 60% chance of it being either average or colder than average.  Now, it sure seems like it has been cold around here.  My LG&E Gas bill sure says it has.  And, from the middle of November to the middle of December, it was.  The average high temperatures for the last two weeks of November were fairly close to what we would normally expect in late January.  But, remember, Winter didn’t begin until December 21st.  The first 20 days of December saw an average high of 44.3, which is several degrees below average.  But, wouldn’t you know…the last 11 days of December (or

Its The CPC Story and They're Sticking To It For January

the first 11 days of Winter) we had a warm up with an average high of 51.4, which was above average, leaving the month with an overall temperature just 0.1 degrees below average.  Now, the first 8 days of January has seen average highs of 44.6 which is pretty close to the 30 year average.  I think our coldest average high is late January and early February and its 41 or 42.  So, where is this leading?  In spite of what we know…because of that one warm week, we’re pretty close to average for our temperatures around here.  And guess what? The CPC is sticking to its story!  For Janaury, they still claim a 40% chance of it being warmer than average around here.  Next week will be cold, so that should knock things down.  There will still be two weeks left to go but I suspect that the climate prediction boys will be playing catch up and if the long wave pattern that has generally been in place since mid-November continues, they will have a hard time getting to that 40%…but then again….there is 60% the other way so maybe they’ve really been right all along…its just the TV guys who got it wrong!

Dec 08 Arctic Ice 54,000 Sq Miles Greater than Dec 07

Second Surprise…The Sea Ice Do you recall my previous post from last year chastisinig the media for its coverage of the polar sea ice?  Remember how they trumpeted headlines that said scientists were afraid that the arctic ice cap would melt over the summer, leaving children in fear for Santa Claus?  Buried deep in the article was the fact that even the most pessimistic researcher only gave it a fractional chance.  Well, it turns out I’m not the only one who thought the media was typically out to lunch and writing sensational headlines.  Maybe it was just trying to sell papers and get viewers or, more cynically, the 4th estate was trying to push an agenda.  But, none other than the folks at the National Snow and Ice Data Center took notice.  In the Jan 09 Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis, (move to January issue after Feb 09) they said that last year’s record minima of Arctic ice and the thin layer of ice caputured “the imaginations of many in the media and general public.”   A very vivid imagination it was as the ice over the summer was greater than last

Goofy Pattern Halted Ice Growth for One Week

year and in the fall, there was a near unprecedented ice growth.  That rapid growth was tempered by a week of unusual atmospheric conditions that halted ice growth.  Now, on the one hand, the ice for this year is 34% below the recognized average…but on the other hand, the ice was 9% greater than last year.  So, does it get reported as the second lowest ice coverage in history (which only goes back to 1979) or does it get reported that the Arctic Ice grew just under 10% from last year?  If it grows another 10%, will the headline read that the ice has grown for two consecutive years or that it remains below the recognized average?  I suspect that you know the answer to both questions…and the NSIDC probably knows too…regardless of the facts that they put out….the press will report it as either it wants to or how the limited abilities of the scribes will allow.  Either way, odds are, the headline may not be a incorrect, but it also won’t be accurate.

Capt. Luce Got A Big Surprise

Third Surprise…He’s a She!  During the Civil War, it was somewhat difficult for whaling skippers to get a crew.  Confederate raiders quite often took the high seas to capture and scuttle Yankee whalers.   Many whale boat captains took their ships to the relative safety of the Pacific Ocean to avoid hostilities.  So, with crew members either fighting in the war or not willing to risk a trip to sea, whaling captains were quite happy to get a new crewman.  Captain John Luce felt quite fortunate to add a new young lad to the crew of the whaler America.  George Weldon seemed to be an excellent seaman as he could climb the rigging and pull an oar with the best  of them.  He could not only pull his weight, he is said to have been able to dance a mean jig as well. 

As most men who go to sea, George was apparently not afraid to get into a scuffle.  Crewmen fighting is one thing though and striking an officer is a different matter.  Seems George was spoiling for a fight with the Second Mate and went on the attack.  Captain Luce could not allow such insubordination and so, on this date in 1863, George Weldon was stripped of his shirt in preparation for a flogging.  But when the shirt came off, the breasts popped out!  The able bodied seamen was really a stratigically bound woman.  As it turns out George was really Georgiana….as in Georgiana Leonard, who was the missing child of a Confederate Cavalry Colonel Leonard.  Captain Luce decided it best not to flog Georgiana.  His log for the day simply said, ” This day found our George Weldon to be a woman, the first I ever saw suspected of such a thing.”  Presumably, Georgiana was not allowed to stay with the crew…but I’m not certain.  I’m also not certain but I bet the Second Mate never lived down that he got manhandled by a young girl!

40% Chance of Being Too Warm, 60% Not; Spectacular Canada Meteor Video; Young Man Tragically Commits Suicide Online November 23, 2008

Rain Amount Forecast Monday

Well, I was right but wrong.  I had said that the airport would not really represent what you had in your backyard for Saturday morning, but I was looking for 20 or 21.  The airport had 19 while the weather service, the old official site, was 16.  Leitchfield got the booby prize with a low of 11.  Bradfordsville was 12 as was Taylorsville Lake.  Brandenburg was 13.  The other odd man out was the usual co-conspirator of the Louisville was Tell City with 19.  I’m not sure where the thermometer is in Tell City but its usually battling with Louisville’s airport for the warmest location and like the airport is often several degrees warmer than everyone else around it.  Anyway, with clouds over us much of the night, temps only in the mid low to mid 20′s are in the cards for Sunday morning, with the clouds breaking toward daybreak being the only reason we even get that cold.  Dewpoints in the mid teens are the reason why, if you looked at a radar on Saturday night and saw snow, you didn’t have it outside.  The snow falling basically disappeared before it hit the ground.  It’s called sublimation. When a liquid goes to a gas, its called evaporation.  When a solid goes straight to a gas, its called sublimation.  Dry ice sublimates….so did the snow Saturday night.  Sunshine Sunday takes us to the low to mid 50′s on Sunday then a frontal system approaches and Monday brings rain followed by a cold Tuesday.  Right now Thanksgiving still looks decent with partly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 50′s.

It Came From Outer Space

Big Meteor Caught on Tape:  Friday night the folks in western Canada got a big bright surprise.  A meteor came swooping from the sky and it was caught on this video from a cop car video camera.  My guess is that it was from the Leonid Meteor Shower, but if so, it would have been on the tail end of the annual event when the greatest activity was winding down.  This year was forecast to be a less than spectacular year for the Leonids but, it only takes one.  The story here says that officials are still trying to find the remains of the meteor for confirmation.  Maybe it was a UFO.

Couple Of Warm Spots Spoiled It For Everyone

October Climate Report: The erroneous data from Russia got looked at again and the numbers are in from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.  Globally, the temperature was .167 above the 20 year average.  September was .161 warmer.  Essentially the same month to month but it’s still warming.  The Russian temperatures were still warmer than they should have been, just not as dramatic as the earlier report.  It was a pretty large area of warm temperatures with a secondary, smaller area northwest of Hudson Bay in Canada.

40% Chance Of Being Warmer...where Does that leave the other 60%?

Update on Winter Forecast:  The Climate Prediction Center has shifted it’s blobs somewhat but we are still in the 40% chance of warmer than average conditions from December through February, which would be a nice change over the past couple of weeks.  It is interesting when you look at the discussion because they talk about no El Nino and La Nina so they are basing this simply on temperature trends.  Couple of problems here. One is the way that this information is typically reported.  You might here that we “are forecast to be warmer than normal.”  Clearly, these guys give statistical probabilities  and they dont have any area greater than 50%. It’s not the CPC’s fault that it gets misreported.  But, the other issue that I have is with relying on “trends.”  I’m not saying that they are wrong because they are experts at climate and I am not.  But, the support is rather thin and I”ve always had a problem with the old 50% forecast. What’s that? That means there is a 50% chance of it being normal or colder, right?   I have yet to see a climate forecast that was more than 55%.

Keep an Eye on your Kids and the internet:  I’m not going to elaborate on this story much because it is said.  This 19 year old in Florida had a live streaming video from his home and said he was going to kill himself.  Some people on the web cheered him on.  He did it for everyone to see. Some were concerned but not enough for someone to call the cops, who tracked down the IP address and found the kid dead.  I’ll leave you with your own thoughts as you watch the story from a Florida TV Station.

Warmer Than Average Winter? Playing Hockey Goalie Without A Mask? November 1, 2008

Probability of being warmer than average this winter...hmmm

to see a video of the coolest waterfall you’ve ever seen, CLICK HERE

A Warm and Dry Winter? It’s going to be warmer than average and great this weekend. Get out and enjoy

Not Too Wet?

Click Pic for animation

it. Snow White and I had a nice scull on Friday afternoon and she found new birds to talk to…the Turkeys…whom she gobbled back and forth with. Meanwhile, the headline says that the Climate Prediction Center says that it will be a warmer winter than normal. But, if you look at the temperature map with the colors indicate that there is a 50% chance of it being warmer than normal to our north and a 40% chance of it being warmer than normal around here. Hmmm…seems to me that means there is a 60% chance of it being something else, right? I dunno…I wasn’t all that great with statistics and often statistics can make no sense whatsoever. For instance, if you get 30 people in a room statistically speaking, odds are two of them have the same birthday. Doesn’t make sense to me either but that’s statistics. And Mark Twain said there were three kind of lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics. So, That’s their story. Gotta tell you, if the long wave pattern of the last few weeks holds true, it will be a warmer than average year…but long wave patterns can change and we have a La Nina/El Nino neutral situation that is forecast to stay put. Here’s a portion of the report with a link to the whole thing.

While the model spread continues to include possibilities ranging from El Niño to La Niña, the recent decrease in subsurface and surface temperatures favors a return to La Niña over the development of El Niño. However, based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, recent trends, and model forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into early 2009. Here’s a Link to the ENSO discussion

On This Date in History: A Man of Courage on Two Counts

Plante Without Mask

On This date in 1959, Montreal Canadiens goalie Jacques Plante first wore a mask in a game. Prior to that, goalies did not wear a mask and routinely they were hit in the face by a puck flying at what, up to 100 mph? Maybe faster. And those pucks are made of hard rubber. I’d say that a flying puck left a mark or two. Somehow I don’t think goalies in the NHL had the hottest girlfriends on the team. But Plante wasn’t the first to try a mask. The first was Clint Benedict of the old Montreal Maroons who wore a partial leather mask in the 1930′s for a brief time but he said it obscured his vision so he stopped using it.

Now, Plante had used a white fiberglass mask in practice all season but his coach wouldn’t let him wear it in a game. But, in a November 1, 1959 game, he got hit in the face as a puck screamed across his nose and mouth. The blood poured. He went to the locker room for stitches and

Plante With Mask

it took more than 20 minutes, which was a long time for stitches in a hockey game. Seems that Jacques was arguing with the coach about his returning with a cream colored mask.(not sure why it wasn’t the white one) He told the coach either he wore the mask or he didn’t play. Later, Plante explained, “I already had four broken noses, a broken jaw, two broken cheekbones and almost 200 stitches in my head,” he pointed out. “I didn’t care how the mask looked.” See, Plante was so good that he could do just about whatever he wanted. He even knitted his own underwear….hardly a manly, tough goalie sort of thing. But he said it calmed his nerves.

It seems pretty courageous for anyone to go into the goalie box without a mask. And Plante did just that. But, it took perhaps even more courage to enter the box wearing a mask. He was jeered and mocked by other players and the fans for years. I’m sure “sissy” wasn’t the only word that he was called. But, after a few years, other goalies thought it might be a pretty good idea and since one of the best did it, why not? The practice of wearing a mask became the norm across the league and today goaltenders embrace the mask as they put all sorts of wild designs on the apparatus to express their personality or show loyalty to the team.

Jacques Plante: A profile in courage. You don’t suppose that the other goalies decided the mask was a good idea when they saw Plante, after wearing the mask, with the best looking dates in the league?