Arctic Sea Ice Shows Extensive Growth in March 2010 April 6, 2010

NSIDC March 2010 Sea Ice Extent Near 1979-2000 Average-Challenge to Conventional Wisdom?

Arctic Ice Continued Growth in March 2010

Global temperatures this winter on average were up for 2009-2010 but the March Arctic Ice Growth was perhaps unprecedented and much of Northern Asia, Northern Europe and parts of the United States had exceedingly harsh winters while Canada and Greenland were exceedingly warm.    In February, the North Pole Arctic Ice extent appeared to have continued a trend of slow growth from the 2006 lowest recorded maximum ice extent.  Back in 2004, there were several reports concerning undersea volcanic activity that could account for warming Arctic ocean temperatures, but these reports were not widely brought to the public view by the media.   Nevertheless, since the low maximum in March 2006 which followed the lowest Arctic Ice Extent minimum ever recorded in 2005.  Then in 2007, a new record low minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent was observed.   This led to trumpeting in the media that 2008 could result in an ice free Arctic.   If I recall, when I reviewed these media reports, I found that the headline did not match the rhetoric.  A few scientists had said that there was a 1 in 4 chance of that happening, which is hardly a prediction that it would occur.   Not only did that headline prove to be false, but the 2008 Arctic Sea Ice minimum was greater than the previous year.  I noted that, instead of saying that it had grown, the headline from the National Snow and Ice Data Center was that it was the “second lowest” of all time.  The headline was true but they chose the negative presentation over the positive depiction which may speak volumes.  In my mind, headlines should be absent of adjectives that may create bias perceptions one way or the other.

March 2010 3rd Consecutive March To Buck the Long Term Trend Line

Since those days of gloom and doom, the reports have consistently come forth with the reference point always being the lowest.  I”m not sure if I have ever seen a sentence that simply says the ice is growing.  In March 2010, the NSIDC reported that the Arctic Ice Extent in February “continued to track below average” and near those dismal levels of 2007.  But, the numbers were slightly higher and at the end of the month, there was a slight rise that was not noted in the text.  Later, we find that the February Arctic Ice Extent was the “fourth lowest February extent” which means it was higher than 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was lower than 2008 and 2009.   As it turns out, something happened.  As the month of March rolled on,  that little rise at the end of February that was seemingly dismissed continued on through March such that the March ice extent almost reached the 1979-2000 average that is used as a  baseline.  I do not recall the ice extent of any month coming close to that level in recent memory.  I suppose qualitative adjectives only apply for negative news because the April 6, 2010 NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent report used a more balanced headline than it had in previous reports of low ice.    Instead it simply says, “Cold snap causes late-season spurt growth.”  The text of the report does not point out but, this is the 3rd consecutive March to be well above the long term trend line.  This should bring good news of cheer, I would think.  Just 2 years ago, the media was writing about Santa Claus floating away and now we see a huge growth in the ice extent and the latest date of the maximum extent since monitoring began. 

Global Temperature Anomalies Dec-Feb 2010

Nevertheless, I find very little of a positive nature in the report and I think that is the correct approach.  It is good to be cautious in a humble silent admission that we do not have a full understanding of how the earth’s climate operates.  Just report the facts.  But, in the past, there has been a decided negative tilt.  Even in this report, there is talk of how the long term trend is still down and that the overall temperatures were still above average for the Arctic were above average, but it does note that the temperatures in Northern Europe and Siberia were below average.  It probably would have been more accurate to say they were “well below average,” yet again, they seem to pick and choose when to use qualifying adjectives.  If you look at the seasonal temperature map to the right, you notice that all of Siberia was at least 5 degrees C below average and that the rest of Northern Europe was between 3-5 degrees C below average.  That represents an enormous land mass.  Now, Canada was some 3-4 degrees warmer but much of the United States was 2-4 degrees colder.  Air temperatures over the ocean were generally warmer than average but not to the extent of the land anomalies.  For some reason, we had a long wave pattern that gave persistent cold to large land areas in the Northern hemisphere with a somewhat smaller land area covered by warmer temperatures.  Overall, the global temperatures were warmer. If you look at the map, you notice that almost the entire Southern Hemisphere was warmer during the peiriod, which is largely ocean areas.  The exception is the oceans surrounding Antarctica.  What’s up with that?

Is it possible that Undersea Volcanoes can affect the climate through warming ocean temperatures or are they insignficant?

And that last question is the real truth because no one knows.  Yes, the long term trend of Arctic Ice extent is negative but there seems to be a trend over the past 3-4 years of growth that bucks the trend.  This rapid expansion of ice in March did not fit the storyline except that it was the third consecutive year that the March Ice Extent was well above the long term trend line.  And what’s up with the land masses being so cold and the air over the oceans not playing along?  Just a coincidence or is there something at play?  And what about the undersea volcanoes?  Do they play any role at all or are they just red herrings?  And why was the Southern Hemisphere so warm this summer except for the areas around the South Pole?  No one wants to address the fact that the Antarctic did not want to go along with the warming script when the global temperature is taken for the time frame.  I know that I will be given a label for raising any questions which always puts up a red flag to me when legitimate questions are not seriously since they don’t fit a perconceived notion. 

Unfortunately, Mankind Often Takes the Wrong View Regarding Humility

I think that the proper position to take here is not one way or another. It is wrong for people to say that there is no climate change.  Most evidence suggests that there is.  It is not clear if the change though is anthropogenic or natural so it is equally as wrong to pretend like we have all of the answers.  Throughout history, man seems to learn lessons.  After the devastating 30 years war in Europe, mankind seemed to at least temporarily find that diplomacy was a far better way to settle disputes than armed conflict.  Obviously, that lesson has been lost.  But one lesson that man does not seem to learn is humility; a recognition that he currently has limited ability to reach conclusions about anything concerning the wonders of his own planet.  Constantly, what is thought to be fact is tossed on the ash heep of history when something comes along to confound that supposed fact.  Yet, we continue to behave as if we have all of the answers and persecute those who suggest otherwise.

SPC Tuesday Categorical Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

Weather Bottom Line:  After pontificating about the need for humility, I follow up with a forecast. Nice timing.  But, duty calls.  The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center appears to be taking the more cautious position that I advocated yesterday regarding severe weather prospects in our area.  The slight risk area was expanded on Tuesday both north and south as well as farther east to the extent that it now encompasses the Louisville Metro Area.  This allows for the potential for storms that should develop to our west to hold together in the evening hours and move into our region.  We had temperatures in the mid to upper 80′s on Tuesday…but there is one fly in the ointment..that is the dewpoints.  

Tuesday SPC Severe Weather Probability for Wednesday

Tuesday afternoon we were only in the mid 40′s regarding dewpoints and we’ll have to do better than that to support some good storms around here.   Surface Dewpoints Tuesday afternoon were over 60 from Southwestern Illinois down through the Bootheel of Missouri and and down south from there.  I would speculate that we will probably see an increase in our moisture content such that it will be marginally sufficient to suppor t’storms and possibly strong storms.  Bottom Line is that Wednesday afternoon and evening will be something to keep an eye on around  here.  Not a slam dunk and perhaps not even likely, but there will be a possibility of some action..most likely if we did it would be gusty winds and small hail.  We get some CAPE in here late in the day and some sheer and Helicity…enough for conern but not enough to go bananas over either.

WWF Schedules Earth Hour During NCAA Basketball Tournament March 26, 2010

If WWF is successful, the US will go black from the East Coast to the West Coast but the NCAA tournament will be on. Which will win out?

Candle Power Used During Earth Hour Even Though Candles Release Carbon Dioxide. These People are Leaving a Carbon Footprint to Mark Earth Hour

Earth Hour?  We’ve all heard of Earth Day as it’s been around for about 40 years.   But now, there is Earth Hour.  This is brought to you by the WWF.  Before you go looking for a picture of Hulk Hogan carrying the earth on his shoulders like Atlas, it’s not the World Wrestling Federation.  Remember a few years ago the wrestlers were sued and so they had to change their name to World Wrestling Entertainment aka WWE.  This would be the World Wildlife Fund and they are encouraging people from around the world to ”…come together to make a bold statement about their concern for climate change…”  They claim that millions of people will participate and illustrate their concern by turning off the lights for one hour.  The time is to be March 27, 2010 at 8:30pm local time.  That means that if everyone did it, an observer from space would see the lights go off sequentially from east to west around the globe.   While it is a global effort, for some reason the United States is singled out and the Yanks are encouraged to show the way toward a ”cleaner, more secure nation and prosperous America.”

How Thailand Was Supposed to Look Before and After For Earth Hour

This is not the first Earth Hour though as it was launched 3 years ago.  The WWF claims that last year over 1 billion people participated in 87 countries from 7 continents involving over 4100 cities including 80 million Americans in 318 cities.  This year, National Geographic is claiming 121 countries will participate.   On the one hand, it is called a “simple” gesture because all one has to do is to hit the light switch.  Yet, the WWF does direct you to  a “tool kit” to elaborate on how to participate.  This reminds of an Aggie Joke:  How many Aggies does it take to turn off a light?  What would be an event that is supposed to bring global civic awareness without having a promotional edge?  You can buy “Earth Hour Gear” if you want to express yourself by more than just turning off the lights.   I’m not sure if profit is the main motive behind this global effort but, like all good intentions, there can be unintended consequences.

Earth Hour, Earth Day, End of the World...Nothing will Prevent a UK Fan from Watching the 'Cats

Think about cigarettes.  State governments across America are raising cigarette taxes under the notion that it will discourage smoking with higher prices.  But, state budgets have become so reliant on revenue from the cigarette tax, if they were successful in their official motivation and everyone stopped smoking, then state government deficits would be such that sovereign state bankruptcy might be a real issue.  In the case of Earth Hour, if everyone participates, there might be steep consequences.  An official Earth Hour event in Thailand was cancelled due to safety concerns.  A big crowd of people at night whom the bad guys know would be shrouded in darkness?  Sounds pretty enticing or even inviting.  But it apparently was a concern about “Red Shirt” demonstrators.   Then there are technical issues.  When you have a power grid designed for certain power load and their is a sudden change, that can tax the capability of that system.  We normally think of power surges or excessive usage in a heat waver or something that disrupts the system. In this case, Earth Hour can cause complications from a sudden power drop off such that utlities have to take precautions to prevent the dark hour from becoming a dark night.  But, in some parts of the states, it seems to me that the biggest obstacle may be the NCAA.  Those guys went and scheduled the NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament during Earth Hour!  They should have checked  the schedule.  I can promise that, in Kentucky, when the University of Kentucky is playing in prime time for a shot at the Final Four, no one will turn off their TV and I doubt if any UK fans will be watching the game in the dark….after all…you need to make it safe for trips to the refrigerator or bathroom.

Cave Hill Cemetery is Beautiful In the Spring

Weather Bottom Line:  Snow White and I took advantage of the fact that the clouds were chased away ahead of my schedule and so we went and fed the ducks at Cave Hill Cemetery.  It was such a nice day, Lee Squires left early and who can blame him?  Several geese and swans are sitting on their eggs which may be hatched for Easter, but we didn’t see any mallards on their nest.  I think that it’s because the mallards are too smart to put their nests where just anyone can find them.  We did have a couple of errant snow reports early this morning but, as I had warned, it was not consequential.  One thing that I did fail to mention was the howling wind overnight.  At one point, I thought that it was raining hard but instead it was just a pressure equalization occuring in rapid fashion.  It will be cool overnight and Saturday still looks to be outstanding with highs back in the mid to upper 60′s.  With that kind of turn around, a cold front must be on the way…and it is. 

SPC T'storm Chances Saturday

Our timing will work out well again as during the heat of day, the storm system will be to our west.  And, like the last system, this one will pass South.  So, if there are stronger or frequent thunderstorms, they will be west and south of the area.  Since this guy is coming through in the evening and with no sun (or lights for Earth Hour) then it will be very difficult to get sufficient lift to either form storms or keep them going.  So, perhaps some rumbles of thunder Saturday night followed by clouds and rain on Sunday.  The sun returns with mild but not too terrible conditions for the first part of the new week.

Global Warming VS US Snow Storms: No Conclusions Please February 11, 2010

Tough To Convince These Folks About Global Warming

I have heard radio talk show hosts and politicians make all sorts of jokes about Global Warming as much of the United States get slammed by snow storms.  They could be right but, then again, it might be a good idea for them to check out the facts before they speak.  See, our opinions are limited on what we know and for people in the eastern United States, what we know is that it has been colder and snowier than normal which runs counter to what most people consider global warming.  Philadelphia, Washington DC and Baltimore all have not only exceeded their average annual snowfall totals but also have broken annual records.  The midpoint of winter was just passed about 10 days ago and spring time often produces big snowstorms.  Louisville is probably fairly representative of much of the northeastern quadrant of the US if not parts of the South as well in regard to temperatures. 

Nearly 2/3 of US buried under Snow On Feb. 11 2010

According to the National Weather Service’s  National Snow Analysis, the snow cover of the United States as of February 11 was about 63.5% of the nation with an average depth of over 8 inches.  If you look at the Louisville archived climate data, you find that Louisville has been much cooler than average going back to July 2009 when for the first time in recorded history, Louisville did not have a 90 degree day.  Keep in mind, that 3 years ago Louisville moved the official recording site from the National Weather Service to the airport after over 30 years and the airport routinely has higher temperatures.  There were bureaucratic reasons for the change but it generally will skew temperatures warmer and unless a climatologist is aware of the switch, then they might conclude that Louisville is a great example of global warming.  Nevertheless, in spite of the switch, no 90 degree temperatures in July 2009.  every month since then has been colder than average except for September 2009 and November.  In most cases, the degree of colder monthly temperatures has been pretty dramatic, such as the July 2009 departure from normal coming at at negative 5 degrees.  January 2010 featured 13 days of consistent below freezing temperatures but a week long warm up resulted in January’s departure from normal only coming in at negative 2.9 degrees.  So far, February has been some 5-6 degrees below normal with no real warm ups in site for at least 10 days. 

Arctic Sea Ice Growth of Recent Years Slowing?

What is going on is that the long wave pattern has been generally stuck.  There has been a consistent ridge over the Atlantic extending all the way to Greenland.  The result has been the eastern part of the US has been in a generally persistent trough that allows the Arctic air to spill down at times to the Gulf of Mexico and there are not the normal fluxuations.  Now, this is an El Nino year so we expect some variations to the norm.  But, here’s the interesting thing:  According to the Univeristy of Alabama at Huntsville’s data,  January 2010 was the warmest month globally was the warmest January since they began making records using satellite sourcing.    How can this be?  Europe has also been in the grips of a deep freeze and heavy snow all winter.  Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH has never been accused of being a Global Warming chicken little.  He has worked tirelessly to analyze the climate from a non-political view and so he has been the target of much criticism from the left.  So, his January report should not be dismissed by anyone.  Spencer explains that the long wave pattern has been such that the cold pattern has been over land masses while the oceans have largely been dominated by a warmer pattern.  The North Atlantic ridge I described is an example.

More Ice On Pacific Side of Arctic, Less on Atlantic Side

 I have been critical of “pro global warming” news reports based on data from the National Sea and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in recent years that always say that the Arctic ice was the 2nd or 3rd lowest when, in fact, the sea ice at the North Pole has been growing.  Yes, it’s low but it has been coming off its recorded historic lows so the headlines could say that its growing but instead they take the negative angle.  I’ve been tagged derisively as a “denier” when, in fact, I am looking for truth not trying to join a team.  In that spirit, I should note that the ice growth trend seems to be slowing for the moment.  In January, the total ice cover was greater than the lows of 2006 but, it is less than 2009 which is a break in the trend of growth since 2006.   To be sure, one month does not a trend make and nothing can be construed one way or another from this single month.  But, it is interesting in that the Pacific side of the Arctic really has an ice extent beyond the long term average.  But, it’s the Atlantic side that has come in low.  That same ridge that has given Louisville and the rest of the east colder and snowier conditions has resulted in warmer conditions, thus reduced ice growth.

Trend Has Been Down but is it Mother Nature's doing or Man's Fault?

What does all of this mean? I dunno.  And, as I’ve pointed out before, the correct response should be I Don’t Know rather than taking a position one way or another.  Because no one does know.  The earth temperatures have been rising in recent years, but they’ve done so in the past.  Is man contributing to the warmth?  It’s so hard to say especially after revelations that some of the books have been cooked.  If man is the cause can we do anything about it?  And perhaps more importantly, should governments try to do something about it?  Would the amount of difference from any treaties really make enough of a difference to justify the costs and could that money be used better for a fight against disease or world poverty?  I have suggested that perhaps we are neglecting a bigger and real threat, which is the pollution of our oceans,  waterways and water sources.  But, the lesson here is to recognize that the world is a big place and just because you are having a tough winter doesn’t mean that the world is going into an ice age.  It’s the weather…and it changes.

Sunshine should Help reduce the snowpack some next couple of days

NAM 84 hr snow map points the way to Sunday night and Monday

Weather Bottom Line:  Global Warming or not, as you can tell from the data above, Louisville has been colder than the 30 year average every month but two since last summer and most of those anomolies have been fairly significant on the down side.  I don’t see much of a change.  In fact, I still don’t see how we get above freezing Friday and Saturday or even Sunday as some forecasts suggest.  We will be close and if we do get above 32, it wont be for long and unless you are a thermometer, it won’t matter.  I think we’d get more snow loss from sublimation than from actual melting.  And it still looks like we’re going to add to our snow totals.  The models continue to be consistent with bringing a shorwave down thorugh the flow on Saturday bringing snow for us Saturday night through Monday with most data suggesting the best accumulations coming on Monday. Some want to carry flurries and light snow into Tuesday.  The range in snow totals generally are from 3-6 inches.

GFS 120 hours Shows Possible Result of Next Snow Event in Time for President's Day

If you examine the NAM and GFS graphical snow depiction you can see a striking similarity.  The NAM only goes out 84 hours to Sunday evening but you can see what looks like a finger painted line of snow pointing straight to Louisville with about 3 inches or snow pointing to Kentuckiana.  The 84 GFS map looks almost exactly the same but we have the benefit of going out 120 hours on the GFS and you can see how it carries out the scenario.  As with recent storms, there is a tight snowfall gradient from south to north.  What is interesting is that the GFS takes a sharp turn higher in Southern Indiana just north of Louisville with totals up toward 8 inches whereas louisville is in the 4-5 inch range.  As I’ve said for several days, I do think that we will get some decent snow but it’s tough to get 8 inches from a storm coming from the northwest.  Typically, you need a moisture source like the Gulf of Mexico involved or a storm coming from the Southwest to get some really good snow totals.  But, then again, if the shortwave is cold enough aloft it will squeeze whatever moisture  it can find right out.  So, we’ll see.  And I still don’t see how we get above freezing anytime soon.

NASA Data Contradicting Global Warming Assumptions Released in Cone of Silence December 2, 2009

Carbon Cycle

Global Warming Update: With the chaos created by the “climategate” scandal involving hackers releasing controversial emails obtained from supposed communiques between scientists who have been pushing the anthropogenic global warming position, it’s possible that the media missed this little item. The idea has been that the massive increase in carbon dioxide over the decades has over taxed the earth’s natural ability of absorption. NASA released news that evidence shows that the balance between airborne and absorbed carbon dioxide has not changed since 1850 in spite of an increase of 1750% of carbon dioxide emissions. Most of the global warming support data has been based on the assumption that the earth is not able to absorb the extra emissions. Dr. Norman Wagner was one of my meteorology professors and he always said that a problem that modern forecasters have is that they spend all their time looking at the computer and never look out the window to see what’s really going on. Climatologists might have done well to have a class with Dr. Wagner. This should cause everyone to go back to the drawing board. But, instead, this bit of news looks like it was released in the cone of silence.

Is The Lady A Spy?

Apparently, Yes!

On This Date In History:

The British could have used Control’s Cone of Silence. By this time in 1777, General William Howe had his army occupying Philadelphia. When his headquarters proved too small, he commandeered an upstairs room across the street at the Darragh home. The story is that Mrs. Lydia Darragh, a nurse and mother, would eavesdrop on the conversations and sew her notes into her coat lining. She would then pass the notes on the colonials. On December 2,  1777 she found out that Howe was planning an attack on General Washington’s army nearby. She sewed the message into the lining and went through British lines saying she was getting flour. She passed on the information to Lt. Col. Thomas Craig who forwarded the information to General Washington. When the Redcoats marched toward Washington’s position, they were surprised to find the Continental Army facing them down. A three day event of skirmishes made Howe return to Philadelphia to think up another plan….presumably from a new headquarters.

Was Joe Right?

On this date in 1954, Senator “tailgunner Joe” Joe McCarthy was condemned for his snooting about for communists in the government. An ironic twist to the story not typically told; many historians now suggest that there were in fact a number of communist influences in the government. Maybe if McCarthy used honey to attract flies instead of…well….you get the point.

Good Bye Chicago?

On this date in 1942, Enrique Fermi produced the first nuclear fission chain reaction in Chicago. The place? Under the grandstands of the University of Chicago football stadium. Fermi’s work led directly to the development of the atomic bomb and later nuclear power. Thing is, Fermi wasn’t exactly certain that the reaction could be controlled and many physicists were concerned such an attempt would result in an uncontrolled reaction which would mean an explosion….as in an atomic explosion. I don’t think that the Bears were playing for that day or they may have had two potential disasters in one stadium.

Wed Eve...Low Pressure will exit before the cold air comes into place

Weather Bottom Line:  Well, the big threat of snow is here.  Even the Weather Channel took it out of their forecast.  My position remains the same.  If it snows it won’t be much and it won’t matter because the ground will be too cold.  The NAM has zero in the way of snow but has a saturated layer from about 900 mb to 975 mb but the temperatures in the lower 25 mb remain above freezing.  Also, after Thur 10 am, that saturated layer begins to disappear.  Now, the GFS has a little different solution in that it has that saturated layer but it has light rain falling almost throughout the overnight and into the morning and through Thursday.  Then, by Thursday evening, it turns over to snow and takes the surface temperature down close to freezing.  It would put out less than a half inch of snow.  That is the only supporting data for snow…and Thursday night seems a bit late. I don’t buy it,  but there it is.  Basically, the moisture leaves before the cold air at all levels gets here.  About that time, I’ll be the emcee at Light Up Jeffersonville so I can give a pinpoint observation. I think we stay too warm and its no big deal.  We still don’t warm up for Friday or Saturday with highs in the upper 30′s and low 40′s.  Don’t look for any major warm ups after that any time soon.

Global Warming Kills Filipinos! Broken Glass Deters Burglars! Frankie Shoots Johnny! October 15, 2009

This Pig and the Philippines Were Victims of Climate Change, Not a Typhoon, According to the Philippines President

Tropical Storm 22 Forecast Track Creates Typhoon Lupit and Sends it to the Philippines

CLICK HERE For a more recent update on Typhoon Lupit, 

Even though US news media outlets have largely been silent on the subject, the Philippines suffered from the effects of two tropical cyclones over two weeks time.  One of those storms, Typhoon Parma, came back for a second landfall on the island.  This was in the wake of Tropical Storm Ketsana. Together, the two storms took at least 710 lives in the Philippines and greatly damaged rice production, infrastructure and the Filipino economy in general.  As Parma made a final assault on Vietnam, heading near Hanoi, Philippines President Gloria Arroyo made a speech in which she asked for international aid.  Now, the UN tried to raise $74 million in funds but only got pledges for $19 million.  So, perhaps seeing that the international community wasn’t responding to the run-of-the-mill plea for help, the president is trying a new tactic to get some attention. She says that the Philippines is a victim of climate change and that, as victims, the Philippines is due compensation from the real culprits to their calamity,which is the rest of the world.  It will be interesting to see where this goes because if Arroyo is successful in this argument because, if she is, then other underdeveloped countries will be standing in line for compensation every time there is a weather related disaster.

Watch Typhoon Lupit Develop in Most Recent Loop

Perhaps she should hold off and wait for more evidence.  You see…there is another tropical cyclone developing.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts that tropical storm 22 will become Typhoon Lupit and strike the Philippines.  At this point, the Typhoon Lupit forecast track (if it were to become named) is currently oriented to hit almost the exact same spot that Typhoon Parma hit the Philippines.   Each storm name is provided by a different country and it’s ironic that Lupit was submitted by the Philippines.

The Tichenors

In another impoverished country, Snow White and I have friends who are doing missionary work.  I told you about how Bowen and Lindsey Tichenor sold everything that they owned, including raffling off their home, took their 3 small children and went to the Dominican Republic to build water purification facilities for the extremely impoverished people in that island nation.  They managed to avoid any strong tropical cyclones but, crime is a real problem.  They have an ingenious way to protect their home and family.  Outside the home they have spread broken glass to deter any night-time prowlers.  You can follow their updates on the Tichenor website or read an update in this PDF File:

TichenorN…pdf (2.0 MB)  You can also get on their facebook page or follow their exploits on Twitter.

A woman shot a man on this date in history the ballad about the shooting became an American classic, though it wasn’t too accurate.

Blind Fold too tight for Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you the weather would suck on Wednesday and its not getting much better for the rest of the week and perhaps into Saturday.  Chilly and wet.  Wonder if the president of the Philippines would say we are victims of climate change.  I want compensation!

Is Climate Data Collection Corrupted? July 5, 2008

Who Are These Guys? We see on TV and read about experts. Often, University Experts. Then we hear whatever it is they pontificate about. But does anyone really know who these people are? Does anyone really scrutinize their work or do we just accept that they did things properly and correctly? Does anyone look to see if there is fraud? Typically, that sort of fact checking is done by other scholars. But, if there is a dissenting voice, will the media give that voice any credence or airtime? Often researchers have students do the dirty work for them…collect the data. There have been a couple of famous historians who were nailed for plagiarism when it was found that work done by others showed up in their books. The two historians I am thinking of got off the hook by claiming the work was done by graduate students on their behalf and the items inadvertantly got into their published work without citation. So…just exactly who is collecting the data for these big global warming studies? Do you really think that the person who writes the analysis and gets credit for the work is actually doing the collecting?

Consider This Regarding Data Collection and Global Warming Statistics:

First off, read the following article from the Sydney World Herald that is about how in 1917 the movement of a weather station by a very short distance resulted in the skewing of data. The old site, which had been in use for a number of years was in a micro-meteorological environment that resulted in much cooler conditions than the new site. The result was a jump in temperatures. In 1972, because the data collection point was inconsistent, it was determined that the data collection point had to be disregarded when making climate studies.

Sydney World Herald-Hot Heads Cause Climate Change

Now, in spite of the fact that the inconsistency of the data made it no good for usage in long term climate studies, Anthony Watts claims that noted “global warming expert”, Dr. James Hanson used the data when making one of his surveys. Hanson has been sounding alarms and been quite popular on Capital Hill and in the press. Watts even provides a graph that he says Hanson presented for Sydney that uses the corrupted data.

Here is Dr. Hanson’s site that provides a whole lot of stuff on him including his recent papers and presentations and even provides his email address. Here is an article that is critical of Hanson for his recent call to Congress that oil company executives should be tried for crimes against humanity which is interesting because I bet Dr. Hanson didn’t ride a bike to the halls of Congress.

Okay, let’s assume that Dr. Hanson and others have indeed used Sydney. So, using one data point that is corrupt will not alter significantly global findings. But, it raises the question about the quality of data collection. I mean, if it is bad at one place, what about others? Could it be that there are a bunch of bad data sets that may corrupt climate studies? Well, I know potentially of one more and it’s right here in Louisville.

We were told that the official site for Louisville was the National Weather Service office, which is staffed 24 hours by professional meteorologists. Well, a few years ago it was determined that NWS guidelines required that all official collection sites be ASOS sites, or automated and the NWS office is not automated; they use real humans who are trained professionals. So, the official site got moved a few miles away to the airport where there is an ASOS and the observers are in the control tower who have other duties besides weather collection. Though not as dramatic as Sydney, the data collected can be quite different between the sites. Here is an example from June 2008.

LOUISVILLE ASOS MONTH: JUNE YEAR: 2008 DPTR FM NORMAL: 4.3 DPTR FM NORMAL:

LOUISVILLE WEATHER OFFICE MONTH: JUNE YEAR: 2008 DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.9

The airport is influenced by lots of concrete and the aircraft engines and heat and such. Officially Louisville was 4.3 degrees warmer than the 30 year average this year. Alarming! But, at the NWS office, Louisville was less than one degree warmer than the 30 year average. in 2004, this would not be startling because the official high would have been less than a degree but today it may sound alarm bells in the global warming community and the reason is only because they moved the site.

Other examples can be found in the recent past. August 2007 was considered to be the hottest of all time in Louisville by a wide margin. Had they used the data at the NWS, like had been done for something close to the past 30 years, then it would have been the 6th warmest. (Climate records) The average temperature in Louisville officially was 8 degrees above average…had this occurred in 2004, Louisville it would have been only 4 degrees warmer than average. The only difference? They moved the site.

I suspect that it will be very difficult for Louisville to break any record lows but will consistently break records for highs simply because the data being collected today is from a site not consistent with previous collection points. The averages that they are comparing today’s collection with were largely made at the National Weather Service.

So…now we have Sydney Australia and Louisville KY as examples of corrupted data points. I had always thought that researchers are pretty thorough and they would know to be consistent and careful with their data collection. However, if Hanson was using Sydney, who is using the new Louisville records. And how many researchers take into account the effects of urbanization? In Houston, the official data collection was moved from Hobby Airport(HOU) to the then new Intercontinental Airport(IAH). Hobby is closer to the ocean and is way warmer than the 25 miles farther north IAH. That made IAH cooler, especially at night. At that time, there was nothing but fields around IAH…now there is all sorts of development around it. how has this altered the data? Are these changes taken into account? I don’t know but Anthony Watts says we have at least one example in which a noted scientist used bad data.

Sites have been moved and surroundings have changed. The question is how many of these sites are there and how many have been used in climate studies? How much data is used when it supports one agenda or another and how much is discarded?

As I had asked before…what is the matter with honesty in reporting and in research. It’s hard to know who to believe these days.  Here’s a related post featuring an admission by the IPCC their data has no quality control.

Great Day-Let’s Talk About The Burmese(Myanmar) Cyclone, Al Gore and Global Warming May 12, 2008

High pressure has moved in. Lots of sunshine and that will carry into Tuesday.  Don’t be surprised if you push toward 80 on Tuesday afternoon.  We get a front Wednesday with rain and t’storms. The front gets hung up to our south and little disturbances come up along it, giving over-running rain and maybe elevated storms.  Thursday, maybe carrying over to Friday.  Probably a break on Saturday and then a another rain shot on Sunday with another front.  In other words, enjoy today and tomorrow. When it’s not raining at a given time after Tuesday, it will be cooler than seasonal averages.  Snow White and I will be seen biking about. 

On This Date In History: I can’t find much. Pretty boring. Florence Nightingale was born on this date in 1820.  There are three people with the same birtdate in 1950.  Billy Squier is one of them.  If you’re wondering who is Billy Squier, I say, exactly.  You’re not alone.

So What about the Myanmar or Burmese Cyclone and Mr. Gore’s claim its due to global warming?

To be very honest, It’s been very difficult to find just a straight story on what Mr. Gore said.  Most have greatly opinionated the subject from the very opening comment.  Well, I”ve chosen three links for you.  One is from Newsweek and is a back and forth with a Meteorologist regarding the Cyclone. The the other is from mediamatters, which is defending Mr. Gore’s statements and claiming that they are all true. And the third is a piece with a different tilt than media matters.

Media Matters-Al Gore Myanmar Cyclone

 

Newsweek Q&A Myanmar Cyclone

Business & Media Institute’s Opinion 

 

Here’e the deal. Mr. Gore continues to claim that there is an increasing number of category 5 hurricanes.  That we are going into a what has been seen by hurricane experts for years to be an increased cycle of hurricanes goes unmentioned.  On that mark, there were a number of very intense storms in the 1910 to 1940. Florida just got ripped across so badly that in caused a very big economic depression down there as land prices tanked and speculators took a bath.  Then it was quiet, then it was active, then it was quiet from the early 1970′s until the late 1990′s.  Remember Andrew in late August 1992 was the first hurricane of the season. I don’t think there were many more after that.  Now, the theory is that we are moving through the first stage of a 30 year period of more intense and more numerous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.  It was not related to global warming.  Here is a link to the most intense storms in US history. You will find some recent ones but a whole bunch from other times.  Eight of the top 30 fall between 1910 and 1940.  21 of the top 30 were prior to 1965.  Here’s the link.

Most Intense US Hurricanes

 

Hundreds of thousands have died in Bangladesh and Pakistand and India from cyclones, often with one single storm. The largest storm death is something like 500,000 in Bangladesh in 1970 and that was a category 3 storm. Was that Global Warming? They didn’t think so then…instead they blamed in their own fault for not warning the people and they installed a much better warning system and communications system so the people know and have time to prepare or move out.

 The truth is that this cyclone, or hurricane as we call it, had winds of what I had heard was 120 mph and what this guy says “up to” 150 mph which tells me it was probably sustained 120 and gusts to 150. That is not a huge hurricane. Katrina was not a category 5 hurricane. New Orleans did not get hit by a hurricane, Mississippi did. In both cases, there was a storm surge in a heavily populated area where the land is just barely above sea level. In the case of New Orleans there were levees and relatively sturdy housing. In the delta of the river in Myanmar, there was not sturdy housing, there was no levee system and the natural barrier of vegitation and such that could have helped had been taken out on purpose by the government.

Hurricanes serve a purpose. It is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. There have been strong storms for a long time. The most recent that have caused death and destruction were strong but not too unprecedented or even close to historic. The death and destruction was caused more by the activity and living patterns of humans. What I just said is way way more supportable than Mr. Gore’s contention. This storm, the one in China last year (notice in the article Gore only said it was the strongest in 50 years..not the strongest ever and he did not give the winds or category) or Katrina, were storms that hit the wrong place. If the storm in China was the strongest in 50 years, was the one 50 years ago caused by something other than natural causes? Who’s to blame for that one? Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall with a huge storm surge(over 30 feet in MS) more associated with a category 5 hurricane exasperated by the geographic make up of that part of the Gulf of Mexico. The storm surge in Burma was about 15 feet but went many miles inland. The area is a swamp and barely above sea level. The governement or anyone didn’t tell them that they were in danger. The information was there. The communications system is not what it is in the US. The people drowned. End of story.

If you are looking for support for global warming, you need to look elsewhere than hurricane data. It’s simply not there, unless you are trying to build a case for something that may earn you a lot of money.

Global Warming Update: Cold April 2008 May 9, 2008

The above is the map of temperature anomolies of the earth for April 2008.  The temperature of the tropical regions were nearly a full degree colder than seasonal averages…the greatest departure since 1989.  The US average temperature was 51 degree Farenheit or about a full degree below average.  That is colder than the seasonal average throughout the 20th century and would be the 29th coldest April of the 20th Century.  One interesting thing about the map though is that it would appear that Antarctica was decidedly warmer than average.  Here’s the link to the raw numbers.

Raw Data For April Global Temperatures 2008

 

Here is a National Climactic Data Center Report from February concerning temperatures from Dec 2007 through Feb 2008

Winter 07/08 NCDC Climate Report

 

You decide for yourself what you think. While the data is conflicting with cold for Dec-Feb, Hot for March and Cold for April, did you see this prediction in Mr. Gore’s Oscar Winning Film? Does it fit his conclusion? Keep in mind that I believe March 2008 was one of the warmest on record world wide. Record Northern Hemisphere snow cover for January was followed by above average snow for February and then well below average Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March. I guess it all melted.

Here is the NCDC stuff from March followed by February.

NCDC Report March 2008

NCDC Report February 2008