Malware Preditors Exploit California Wildfires, which are still wild but more contained September 3, 2009

The Station Fire in Southern California continues to expand but at a much slower rate.  Wednesday acreage was 140,000 and by Thursday it was up to 147,000 acres.  But, the area considered contained increased from 22% to 38%.  On Wednesday I opined about the potential for the windflow to come down from the mountains, cause compressional warming and drying and hamper the efforts.  I had thought about that potential from the circulation from Jimena, though I knew that Jimena was probably a shade too far south for any real effects.  Well, they did get some down slope winds on Wednesday night that cause flair ups and headaches for the fire fighting efforts, though I cannot say that Jimena had anything to do with it nor is it safe to suggest that any such occurence would be a result of Jimena as the storm continues to wind down.  Nevertheless, there is still over 60% of the Station Fire not under control of containment.

Terminator Visits the Terminated

 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map has details and locations of several brushfires around the state.  Wildfire Incident Reports continue to come in on an almost hourly basis.   There is another crisis developing indirectly due to the wildfires…that is that unscrupulous folks are creating malware to infect the computers of people looking for California Wildfire information.  So, beware…only go to known sites.   Here is a known site for you…the Los Angeles Times Photo Gallery shows recent photos from the fires.  I’m noting that there is a change in the subject matter as we are now seeing more and more of the aftermath and devastation following the fires and less of the fires themselves.  At right is an image from the LA Times of Arnold visiting what is left of a home.  Typically, its merely a foundation and a fireplace.

Jimena Satellite 20:30Z Sept 3 2009

Hurricane Jimena came ashore as a dying hurricane. It was not a major hurricane at landfall as the cold waters off the west coast of Baja California took its toll.  Right now the heavy rain and thunderstorms is displaced well to the east of the center over the Mexican mainland.  It’s not surprising that its kinda meandering about as the models were going for a northeastward track into New Mexico and then a due west course into the Pacific where it would get killed by the cold water.  That sort of flip-flop often is indicative of a pattern that reflects weak steering current.  And that appears to be the case.  As mentioned previously, it is a downward cycle of its life, is expected to drift southwest and is just so far south, its doubtful that there will be much significant effect for the firefighting in California, though maybe some adverse easterly breezes may be produced, especially at night.

Jimena Forecast Track NHC 2PM EDT 09.03.09

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
OF JIMENA THIS MORNING…WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. 

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA…AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY…AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
WEAK…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND BAM SHALLOW.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     06/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Progress With California Wildfires; Hurricane Jimena, No Help…May even hurt a little September 3, 2009

Calfornia Wildfire Map Sept 2, 2009

for an update on the California Wildfires, including news on malware operatives exploiting the situation, CLICK HERE.

On Tuesday, the Station Fire in Southern California had charred some 122, 000 acres.  By Wednesday, that number had increased to 140,000 acres.  But, as I had mentioned the past few days, it appeared that humidity levels would be increasing and temperatures falling.   To support this notion, the forecast called for patchy morning fog.  Well, the humidity levels increased and firefighting efforts were aided to the point that fire officials say that the giant Station Fire is 22% contained.  Keep in mind, that’s not 22% out, just contained.  It’s progress.   

Investigators have been able to get to the suspected area where the fire originated, near a Forest Ranger Station, and the preliminary conclusion is that the Station Fire was man made.  The Station Fire as of Wednesday afternoon had burned 140,150 acres, destroyed 62 residences, 3 commercial properties, 27 other buildings, 10,000 residences threatened and as mentioned earlier, was 22% contained.  The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map indicates that there are several fires around the state, including 3 others not far from the Los Angeles area.  The Beaver Valley fire has backed off enough for residents to return.  There are still many California Wildfire Incident Reports coming in from around the state.  The story is one of international proportions. 

Big Tujunga Canyon Resident Returns to Ruins

 The Ottawa Citizen has a rather elaborate photo gallery from their sources in the region.  Wildfires are fairly common in the region as the average annual rainfall is rather low so it’s naturally dry and conditions that promote the spread of fire is not unusual.  That is part of the reason why fighting wildfires is different  in California  than other parts of the country.  Many states around the country are in a budget crunch, but it’s different in California in that regard as well.  California is in a bankruptcy crisis and yesterday’s report that they were running through the firefighting budget just two months into the fiscal year has led to today’s announcement that they California may be running through their emergency reserve. 

Hurricane Jimena 1:30Z Satellite Sept 3

Hurricane Jimena NHC Forecast Track 5PM EDT Sept 2

As stated on numerous previous posts, Hurricane Jimena is going to be no help.  In fact, I’m pondering whether or not the track of the hurricane may actually worsen conditions.  Previously, the storm was expected to northeast into New Mexico.  Now, the official forecast track has the storm hooking a left and go due west to die in the colder Pacific waters.  Now, as expected, the storm was falling apart when it approached southern Baja California as it began to encounter colder water from the California Stream.  A northeasterly track would have had circulation such that perhaps they’d get a wind with a more northerly component.  Now, with a track due west, I’m wondering if the broad scale circulation might be sufficient to turn the winds out of the east, which would bring the winds down from the mountains.  Those winds would be drying and warming as they move down the slope.  It’s possible that we may see a lowering of humidity and increase in tempertures…possibly even higher winds if the gradient is sufficient.  It will be interesting to see how it works out but I bet that the circulation field is not large enough to affect Southern California too much.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT.  THE
FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE PACIFIC
WATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD…AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR.  THUS…THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN…BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT…A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR…AND A REMNANT LOW BY
72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT…BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT
STAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA
SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR
SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE BULK
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC…A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST…NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W    75 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W    60 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W    45 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W    35 KT…OVER WATER
48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W    30 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

California Wildfires Creative and Lame Reporting; Hurricane Jimena Won’t Help Much September 2, 2009

For a more recent update on the California Wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE   

Whenever there is a disaster, reporters tend to go back to the old treasure chest of cliches.  In the event of a tornado, one can always expect tired phrases such as “cars were tossed liked toys” or perhaps “homes reduced to kindling” and naturally, when it comes to people they are always left to “pick up the pieces of their lives.”  The UK Telegraph has gotten some inspiration and provides a time-lapse photography photojournalism spread of the fires.  And there are California Wildfire Photo Galleries from many sources.  But, for the most part, the wildfires in California have resulted in journalists revealing their lack of creativity by returning to the attic of adjectives by telling us of the “tinder dry” conditions.  I saw an anchorman described “howling winds” only to have the reporter on the scene say that there were not windy conditions normally associated with Southern California wildfires.  However, it must be pointed out that local winds will increase around the fires..perhaps up to 30 mph simply from the fire itself creating the winds.  Well, almost anytime there is a fire in Southern California, saying conditions are “tinder dry” would probably be accurate.  See, the area does not get that much rain. That is why they write songs that say things like it “seems it never rains in Southern California.”   The Los Angeles average rainfall is only about 14 inches.  Los Angeles water sources includes about 30% from groundwater and the remains from other sources including the Colorado River. 

Modern Borait Bomber-DC 10 Tanker holds 12,000 gallons

The current fire season has been difficult and aside from the tragic loss in life and destruction of property and disruption to ecosystems, the fiscal cost to the state is going to make the financial crisis in California even worse.  They are only 2 months into the fiscal year but have already spent nearly two thirds of the fire protection budget.   Reports have a bit of encouragement as the big Station Fire is said to be 5% contained with a hope to have it 10% contained shortly.  That means its still 90% out of control and some estimates reveal an expectation of it not being totally contained, not doused, for another two weeks. 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map shows that there are other fires in California. There is a very large number of incident reports constantly being updated.   But the Station Fire is the largest having grown to about 121,000 square acres by Tuesday evening.  It continues to threaten the communications towers on top of  Mt. Wilson and the FCC is setting out a plan to help should the towers be compromised.   Weather conditions are not expected to change too much though I’ve seen that patchy fog is expected to start appearing in the next few mornings which leads me to believe that there will be an increase in the moisture content of the air.  Temperatures are also forecast to back off.  But, don’t expect much in the way of help from Hurricane Jemina.

Hurricane Jimena Satellite Rainbow IR 22Z 09.01.09

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm EDT Sept 1 2009

Hurricane Jemina is losing some of its punch and will continue to do so.  While news reporters have reveled in reporting it was a category 4 hurricane was heading toward Baja California, they didn’t mention too much that it was forecast to weaken.  There is something called the California Stream.  Its the opposite of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic that Benjamin Franklin discovered is a natural current that transports warm water from around the Gulf of Mexico to up near England.  The California Stream takes cold water from Alaska and transports it down the Pacific Coast of the US.  Hurricane Jimena is running into some of that cold water off the west coast of Baja California.  But, the structures in many areas of Baja California are pretty much substandard so even a hurricane with 100 mph winds will cause trouble.  The exact track of the storm is a bit up in the air.  But there is ridge in Mexico that seems to generally be in charge of the steering which means that the storm will eventually end up in northern New Mexico and probably whats left of it will get caught up in a front in the United States and make its way to the Ohio Valley or northern plains.  It is improbable that the hurricane will turn toward Southern California.  I suspect that the only thing it will do is maybe increase humidity levels a shade and cause the wind flow to take a more consistent northerly component.

Sea Surface Temperatures Sept 1 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

EARLIER DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT JIMENA WAS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE…WITH THE INNER EYE DISSIPATING AND THE NEW EYE ABOUT
25-30 N MI ACROSS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN…THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS NOT CLEARED OUT.  BASED ON THIS…IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO…WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOMES
LESS CONFIDENT FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE GFDL AND GFDN STILL CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURES DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE…AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS THROUGH THROUGH 72 HR…AND THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR…AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HR.

IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE…AS JIMENA IS STARTING
TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A FASTER WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL…AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 72
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD
WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 21.9N 111.2W   110 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N 112.0W   105 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.7W    95 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.1W    85 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.6N 113.4W    55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W    35 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    25 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 113.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

California Fires Continue Expansion, Kill Two Firefighters; Hurricane Jimena headed North September 1, 2009

Modern Borate Bomber

for an update on the california wildfires and hurriane jimena CLICK HERE

If I still lived where I did in my early years, I’d be out of a home. The Station Wildfire near Los Angeles is burning out of control and late Monday reports say that over 12,000 homes are threatened from Pasadena to La Crescenta. I used to go to the YMCA at La Crescenta and I recally once a big brush fire behind the our house. From the YMCA I could see the powerline standards that were behind our house and I remember my mother frantically picking me up from the Y and screaming at me to get into the car as I said, “did you see all of that smoke by our house?” We didn’t get evacuated but there were ashes raining down on our house like snow. All of the houses on our street had rock roofs. There were what we called Borate Bombers, which was the reddish chemical retardant that they put on fires. They roared over our house. I believe at that time Borate Bombers were old B-17 bombers. They don’t use them any more but I’m pretty sure that the red stuff that they drop is the Borax based Borate we always used to see.   I don’t think that when we lived there, La Canada was considered an “exclusive community.”

The California Wildfire Interactive Map from the CA Emergency Management Agency shows that the Station Fire, as its known, started right by Angeles Crest Highway and has caused the death of two firefighters. I remember when they built that from a two lane road into a wide thoroughfare. It started kinda between Mt. Wilson and our house. Well, there aren’t any big winds so this thing is expanding in several directions. At the top of Mt. Wilson is a famous observatory that shows up in many movies. There are also a whole bunch of tv and radio towers and other transmission towers. I remember KTTV used to advertise that they transmitted “high atop Mt. Wilson.” The Mt. Wilson Observatory and the communications towers on Mt. Wilson are threatened. If they go down, it will be interesting to see what happens…it also may be dangerous as I suspect emergency communications depend on a relay at the top of the mountain.   There are also many fires in the state as outlined fire incident reports from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.   The  fire story is making global news as the Times of India passed along the report of 2 fatalities from the fires. 

Hurricane Jimena 00:30Z Rainbow IR 09/01/09

Hurricane Jimena Water Vapor Image 00:30 Sept 1, 2009

The region is extremely dry.   There may be some hope though in the form of Hurricane Jimena which is a powerful hurricane doing a rather odd thing.  It is approaching Category 5 status which is pretty rare for a storm off the Mexican Pacific Coast.  This guy has a central pressure on Monday afternoon of 931 mb.  That is pretty wild and very very unusual for a storm in this location.   It is not completely uncommon but not typical for a storm to also move north. It is expected to do so across Baja California and then continue into the Southwestern United States.   Now, when a storm does that, it rapidly loses its intensity so I would not expect it to bring drenching rains to  Southern California.  If you look at the water vapor image to te left, you can see all of the extreme dry air to the northwest of Jimena.  But, it could very possibly increase the general humidity levels which would be a help.    As we get toward the weekend a strong shortwave seems to want to show up in the flow on some of the models and move off the coast into the Los Angeles area.  That too may prove to be a help from Mother Nature. 

NHC Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm PDT Aug 31, 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA…AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT…AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS…PRIMARILY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO…THE MOTION IS
BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL…LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL…PREVIOUSLY
WESTERN OUTLIERS…HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS.  HOWEVER THE U.K. AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALSO…INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED…NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT…AND
DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  IN
FACT…THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED.  MOREOVER…TRACK FORECAST
ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W   135 KT
12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W   130 KT
24HR VT     01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W   125 KT
36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W   115 KT
48HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W    85 KT
72HR VT     03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W    50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W    50 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W    30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Southern California Suffers from Wildfires, Baja California Set for Major Hurricane Jimena August 30, 2009

This Could Very Well Be the Canyon Next to our Old House

The Smoke and Ash from a Brush Fire is more than you can imagine

For an update on the wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE

California Wildfires: Here is a Gallery of Photos.   In the Ohio Valley, we’ve had a pretty cool summer.  July had zero days of 90 degree temperatures for the first time in recorded history.  For the next few days, we’ll have highs in just the low to mid 70′s.  Its because there has been a general trofiness in the long wave pattern.  This pattern has contributed to such things as Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny going off the east coast toward Canada when that sort of thing is more common in October.  The other thing is that while there has been a general trof in the east, there has been a general ridge in the west, which means the other half of the country has been hotter than average and in several areas, drier than normal.  There is a big drought in Central Texas and it is quite dry  in California, which is a recipe for wildfires in an area that is typically pretty dry all by itself.  So, fires are raging near Los Angeles near my boyhood home in La Canada.  Here is an interactive map with links for fire information.  When I was a kid, La Canada was all by itself but now it more commonly called La Canada-La Crescenta-Flintridge because all of those communities have kinda run into each other.  Anyway, our old neighbors have evacuated and the area is under seige as our house backed up to the Angeles National Forest where it appears that this fire originated.  To give you an idea of how dry it is…at 8PM EDT a nearby reporting station had 9% humidity.   It is called the Station Fire.   There are many other fires though and  here is a link to wildfire incidents in California.   Governer Schwarzenegger has toured the area and issued decrees of warning. It  would be a good idea to heed calls to evacuate.

Hurricane Jimena Visible Satellte 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Infrared Rainbow Image 21Z 083009

Meanwhile, Baja California is bracing for a hit from a major hurricane.  Hurricane Jimena.  It’s not totally uncommon for a storm to move due north in the Pacific but its not a typical track.  Once it veers off to the west, it will encounter some pretty cold water from the California Stream that originates in Alaska…that is why surfers often wear wetsuits on the west coast.  The water is some 20 degrees colder than say, the Gulf of Mexico this time of year.  Anyway, what will be interesting to see if some of the moisture from the hurricane will make its way far enough into California to aid in the fire fighting efforts.  Probably not a whole lot of help but even a little will be of use.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 2PM PDT 083009

JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES…THE EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT…SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM
BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE
…PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS…LIGHT SHEAR…AND
MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER…THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO
BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND
48 HOURS…THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES…TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF
INTENSE HURRICANES…BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY
UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS…A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE
LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS…IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.
THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER…THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE GFS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HURRICANE…SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W   120 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W   125 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W   125 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W   125 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W   115 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W    75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

California Wildfires; Popular Cars-Leave The Lincoln At Home July 2, 2008

Let’s start off with weather shall we? Really nothing new. Hope you enjoyed Tuesday’s great weather. Told you not to worry. Snow White and I sculled a bit in the evening. I’ve managed to rub holes in the back of my legs from them rubbing on the tracks upon which the seat moves. I bled all over the boat last week. While the river was nice…save for some liquored up rowdies in their speed boats…the holes in my legs are not really fixed yet. Need more padding.

Anyway, the wind was calm as high pressure roamed overhead. As it drifts to the east, our winds pick up from the south and humidity slowly increases. Wednesday we will push to near 90. Now, the moisture return is not all that strong or fast and so when a front approaches late Thursday, it may be a bit moisture starved. That is one reason the boys at the SPC aren’t too enthused about severe chances around here. There’s a big area to our west and northwest on Wednesday but Thursday it gets shunted to the northeast of here from say Cincy to New York. I’ll post the new maps later on Wednesday. After that, the front gets hung up just to our south and so rain chances will be fairly healthy Friday and Saturday. Hopefully, they will avoid the area for fireworks. It wouldn’t be very un-patriotic of them to do otherwise.

A big fat high is in the west and what it does is has a flow that rotates clockwise around and goes west as it heads toward the coast. The wind comes from the dry desert southwest and down out of the Sierra and coastal range. The result is an offshore wind that is hot and dry. They call it Santa Anna Winds. Perhaps it comes from the revenge of Santa Anna for his disasterous reign (11 times) that resulted in the US gaining possession of much of the west and soutwestern states. Anyway, they’re having a terrible time with the fires. Governor Arnold has called out the National Guard and President Bush has declared a state of emergency. Here are some stories that you may not have seen before. One is from NASA with some cool photos from space and another is from the state of California that gives excact locations and specifics about each fire in an interactive map.

NASA CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE PHOTO/STORY

CAL FIRE INTERACTIVE MAP

CAL FIRE HOMEPAGE TO INTERACTIVE MAP

High Gas Prices Cause People to Buy More Food

Higher gas prices are forcing people to change their habits to make ends meet. Cut back on beer consumption? Haven’t read about that. Quit Smoking? Nah. But we are reducing the trips to the restaurant and increasing the trips to the grocery store. Here’s the story:

Increased Food Buying Due to High Gas Prices

Speaking of Gas Prices….one would think that the hardest to get car would be the Toyota Prius. They can’t build them fast enough. But the second most difficult car to get because demand is outstripped supply? You won’t believe it, though it may suggest that the high gas prices aren’t hurting everyone just yet.

Hardest to get cars

LEAVE THIS LINCOLN AT HOME!! On This Date in History:President James A. Garfield was shot in a train station by Charles Guiteau on July 2, 1881. Guiteau had wanted a political appointment and didn’t get what he wanted so he shot the President. I did a report on Garfield in 5th grade so I know a little about this. One story claims that the bullet nicked an artery and that eventually killed him 11 weeks later. The bullet was lodged in his body and another story says that if they had left it alone, he would have lived. Both stories allude to the doctors ignoring the research of Louie Pasteur who had brought to light the idea of bacteria. Garfield’s doctors were skeptical and so they didn’t bother washing their hands nor the instruments. They poked dirty fingers into the hole in his body looking for the bullet. Alexander Graham Bell was summoned to try to locate the bullet with some gizmo. But, all of that poking and prodding with unsterile hands and instruments probably brought about the President’s demise, just 6 months into his term. Or…

It could have been the presence of one man who brought the doom. Robert Todd Lincoln was Abraham Lincoln’s oldest son. While he was not present in Ford’s Theatre when John Wilkes Booth fired the fateful bullet, he was at the 16th President’s bedside when he died. In the train station with Garfield was Robert Todd Lincoln. Twenty years later, President McKinley was at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York on September 6, 1901. Presidential invitation in hand, Robert Todd Lincoln entered the exposition hall only to hear two shots ring out. The President had been assassinated. Robert Todd Lincoln became a recluse for the remainder of his life lamenting that “there is a certain fatality about presidential functions when I am present.” Well…that followed him even in death. Robert Lincoln’s grave can be found in Arlington National Cemetery…just a few yards from that of John Fitzgerald Kennedy.