Malware Preditors Exploit California Wildfires, which are still wild but more contained September 3, 2009

The Station Fire in Southern California continues to expand but at a much slower rate.  Wednesday acreage was 140,000 and by Thursday it was up to 147,000 acres.  But, the area considered contained increased from 22% to 38%.  On Wednesday I opined about the potential for the windflow to come down from the mountains, cause compressional warming and drying and hamper the efforts.  I had thought about that potential from the circulation from Jimena, though I knew that Jimena was probably a shade too far south for any real effects.  Well, they did get some down slope winds on Wednesday night that cause flair ups and headaches for the fire fighting efforts, though I cannot say that Jimena had anything to do with it nor is it safe to suggest that any such occurence would be a result of Jimena as the storm continues to wind down.  Nevertheless, there is still over 60% of the Station Fire not under control of containment.

Terminator Visits the Terminated

 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map has details and locations of several brushfires around the state.  Wildfire Incident Reports continue to come in on an almost hourly basis.   There is another crisis developing indirectly due to the wildfires…that is that unscrupulous folks are creating malware to infect the computers of people looking for California Wildfire information.  So, beware…only go to known sites.   Here is a known site for you…the Los Angeles Times Photo Gallery shows recent photos from the fires.  I’m noting that there is a change in the subject matter as we are now seeing more and more of the aftermath and devastation following the fires and less of the fires themselves.  At right is an image from the LA Times of Arnold visiting what is left of a home.  Typically, its merely a foundation and a fireplace.

Jimena Satellite 20:30Z Sept 3 2009

Hurricane Jimena came ashore as a dying hurricane. It was not a major hurricane at landfall as the cold waters off the west coast of Baja California took its toll.  Right now the heavy rain and thunderstorms is displaced well to the east of the center over the Mexican mainland.  It’s not surprising that its kinda meandering about as the models were going for a northeastward track into New Mexico and then a due west course into the Pacific where it would get killed by the cold water.  That sort of flip-flop often is indicative of a pattern that reflects weak steering current.  And that appears to be the case.  As mentioned previously, it is a downward cycle of its life, is expected to drift southwest and is just so far south, its doubtful that there will be much significant effect for the firefighting in California, though maybe some adverse easterly breezes may be produced, especially at night.

Jimena Forecast Track NHC 2PM EDT 09.03.09

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
OF JIMENA THIS MORNING…WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. 

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA…AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY…AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
WEAK…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND BAM SHALLOW.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     06/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Progress With California Wildfires; Hurricane Jimena, No Help…May even hurt a little September 3, 2009

Calfornia Wildfire Map Sept 2, 2009

for an update on the California Wildfires, including news on malware operatives exploiting the situation, CLICK HERE.

On Tuesday, the Station Fire in Southern California had charred some 122, 000 acres.  By Wednesday, that number had increased to 140,000 acres.  But, as I had mentioned the past few days, it appeared that humidity levels would be increasing and temperatures falling.   To support this notion, the forecast called for patchy morning fog.  Well, the humidity levels increased and firefighting efforts were aided to the point that fire officials say that the giant Station Fire is 22% contained.  Keep in mind, that’s not 22% out, just contained.  It’s progress.   

Investigators have been able to get to the suspected area where the fire originated, near a Forest Ranger Station, and the preliminary conclusion is that the Station Fire was man made.  The Station Fire as of Wednesday afternoon had burned 140,150 acres, destroyed 62 residences, 3 commercial properties, 27 other buildings, 10,000 residences threatened and as mentioned earlier, was 22% contained.  The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map indicates that there are several fires around the state, including 3 others not far from the Los Angeles area.  The Beaver Valley fire has backed off enough for residents to return.  There are still many California Wildfire Incident Reports coming in from around the state.  The story is one of international proportions. 

Big Tujunga Canyon Resident Returns to Ruins

 The Ottawa Citizen has a rather elaborate photo gallery from their sources in the region.  Wildfires are fairly common in the region as the average annual rainfall is rather low so it’s naturally dry and conditions that promote the spread of fire is not unusual.  That is part of the reason why fighting wildfires is different  in California  than other parts of the country.  Many states around the country are in a budget crunch, but it’s different in California in that regard as well.  California is in a bankruptcy crisis and yesterday’s report that they were running through the firefighting budget just two months into the fiscal year has led to today’s announcement that they California may be running through their emergency reserve. 

Hurricane Jimena 1:30Z Satellite Sept 3

Hurricane Jimena NHC Forecast Track 5PM EDT Sept 2

As stated on numerous previous posts, Hurricane Jimena is going to be no help.  In fact, I’m pondering whether or not the track of the hurricane may actually worsen conditions.  Previously, the storm was expected to northeast into New Mexico.  Now, the official forecast track has the storm hooking a left and go due west to die in the colder Pacific waters.  Now, as expected, the storm was falling apart when it approached southern Baja California as it began to encounter colder water from the California Stream.  A northeasterly track would have had circulation such that perhaps they’d get a wind with a more northerly component.  Now, with a track due west, I’m wondering if the broad scale circulation might be sufficient to turn the winds out of the east, which would bring the winds down from the mountains.  Those winds would be drying and warming as they move down the slope.  It’s possible that we may see a lowering of humidity and increase in tempertures…possibly even higher winds if the gradient is sufficient.  It will be interesting to see how it works out but I bet that the circulation field is not large enough to affect Southern California too much.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT.  THE
FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE PACIFIC
WATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD…AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR.  THUS…THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN…BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT…A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR…AND A REMNANT LOW BY
72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT…BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT
STAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA
SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR
SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE BULK
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC…A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST…NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W    75 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W    60 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W    45 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W    35 KT…OVER WATER
48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W    30 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

California Wildfires Creative and Lame Reporting; Hurricane Jimena Won’t Help Much September 2, 2009

For a more recent update on the California Wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE   

Whenever there is a disaster, reporters tend to go back to the old treasure chest of cliches.  In the event of a tornado, one can always expect tired phrases such as “cars were tossed liked toys” or perhaps “homes reduced to kindling” and naturally, when it comes to people they are always left to “pick up the pieces of their lives.”  The UK Telegraph has gotten some inspiration and provides a time-lapse photography photojournalism spread of the fires.  And there are California Wildfire Photo Galleries from many sources.  But, for the most part, the wildfires in California have resulted in journalists revealing their lack of creativity by returning to the attic of adjectives by telling us of the “tinder dry” conditions.  I saw an anchorman described “howling winds” only to have the reporter on the scene say that there were not windy conditions normally associated with Southern California wildfires.  However, it must be pointed out that local winds will increase around the fires..perhaps up to 30 mph simply from the fire itself creating the winds.  Well, almost anytime there is a fire in Southern California, saying conditions are “tinder dry” would probably be accurate.  See, the area does not get that much rain. That is why they write songs that say things like it “seems it never rains in Southern California.”   The Los Angeles average rainfall is only about 14 inches.  Los Angeles water sources includes about 30% from groundwater and the remains from other sources including the Colorado River. 

Modern Borait Bomber-DC 10 Tanker holds 12,000 gallons

The current fire season has been difficult and aside from the tragic loss in life and destruction of property and disruption to ecosystems, the fiscal cost to the state is going to make the financial crisis in California even worse.  They are only 2 months into the fiscal year but have already spent nearly two thirds of the fire protection budget.   Reports have a bit of encouragement as the big Station Fire is said to be 5% contained with a hope to have it 10% contained shortly.  That means its still 90% out of control and some estimates reveal an expectation of it not being totally contained, not doused, for another two weeks. 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map shows that there are other fires in California. There is a very large number of incident reports constantly being updated.   But the Station Fire is the largest having grown to about 121,000 square acres by Tuesday evening.  It continues to threaten the communications towers on top of  Mt. Wilson and the FCC is setting out a plan to help should the towers be compromised.   Weather conditions are not expected to change too much though I’ve seen that patchy fog is expected to start appearing in the next few mornings which leads me to believe that there will be an increase in the moisture content of the air.  Temperatures are also forecast to back off.  But, don’t expect much in the way of help from Hurricane Jemina.

Hurricane Jimena Satellite Rainbow IR 22Z 09.01.09

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm EDT Sept 1 2009

Hurricane Jemina is losing some of its punch and will continue to do so.  While news reporters have reveled in reporting it was a category 4 hurricane was heading toward Baja California, they didn’t mention too much that it was forecast to weaken.  There is something called the California Stream.  Its the opposite of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic that Benjamin Franklin discovered is a natural current that transports warm water from around the Gulf of Mexico to up near England.  The California Stream takes cold water from Alaska and transports it down the Pacific Coast of the US.  Hurricane Jimena is running into some of that cold water off the west coast of Baja California.  But, the structures in many areas of Baja California are pretty much substandard so even a hurricane with 100 mph winds will cause trouble.  The exact track of the storm is a bit up in the air.  But there is ridge in Mexico that seems to generally be in charge of the steering which means that the storm will eventually end up in northern New Mexico and probably whats left of it will get caught up in a front in the United States and make its way to the Ohio Valley or northern plains.  It is improbable that the hurricane will turn toward Southern California.  I suspect that the only thing it will do is maybe increase humidity levels a shade and cause the wind flow to take a more consistent northerly component.

Sea Surface Temperatures Sept 1 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

EARLIER DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT JIMENA WAS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE…WITH THE INNER EYE DISSIPATING AND THE NEW EYE ABOUT
25-30 N MI ACROSS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN…THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS NOT CLEARED OUT.  BASED ON THIS…IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO…WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOMES
LESS CONFIDENT FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE GFDL AND GFDN STILL CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURES DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE…AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS THROUGH THROUGH 72 HR…AND THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR…AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HR.

IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE…AS JIMENA IS STARTING
TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A FASTER WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL…AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 72
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD
WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 21.9N 111.2W   110 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N 112.0W   105 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.7W    95 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.1W    85 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.6N 113.4W    55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W    35 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    25 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 113.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN