Malware Preditors Exploit California Wildfires, which are still wild but more contained September 3, 2009

The Station Fire in Southern California continues to expand but at a much slower rate.  Wednesday acreage was 140,000 and by Thursday it was up to 147,000 acres.  But, the area considered contained increased from 22% to 38%.  On Wednesday I opined about the potential for the windflow to come down from the mountains, cause compressional warming and drying and hamper the efforts.  I had thought about that potential from the circulation from Jimena, though I knew that Jimena was probably a shade too far south for any real effects.  Well, they did get some down slope winds on Wednesday night that cause flair ups and headaches for the fire fighting efforts, though I cannot say that Jimena had anything to do with it nor is it safe to suggest that any such occurence would be a result of Jimena as the storm continues to wind down.  Nevertheless, there is still over 60% of the Station Fire not under control of containment.

Terminator Visits the Terminated

 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map has details and locations of several brushfires around the state.  Wildfire Incident Reports continue to come in on an almost hourly basis.   There is another crisis developing indirectly due to the wildfires…that is that unscrupulous folks are creating malware to infect the computers of people looking for California Wildfire information.  So, beware…only go to known sites.   Here is a known site for you…the Los Angeles Times Photo Gallery shows recent photos from the fires.  I’m noting that there is a change in the subject matter as we are now seeing more and more of the aftermath and devastation following the fires and less of the fires themselves.  At right is an image from the LA Times of Arnold visiting what is left of a home.  Typically, its merely a foundation and a fireplace.

Jimena Satellite 20:30Z Sept 3 2009

Hurricane Jimena came ashore as a dying hurricane. It was not a major hurricane at landfall as the cold waters off the west coast of Baja California took its toll.  Right now the heavy rain and thunderstorms is displaced well to the east of the center over the Mexican mainland.  It’s not surprising that its kinda meandering about as the models were going for a northeastward track into New Mexico and then a due west course into the Pacific where it would get killed by the cold water.  That sort of flip-flop often is indicative of a pattern that reflects weak steering current.  And that appears to be the case.  As mentioned previously, it is a downward cycle of its life, is expected to drift southwest and is just so far south, its doubtful that there will be much significant effect for the firefighting in California, though maybe some adverse easterly breezes may be produced, especially at night.

Jimena Forecast Track NHC 2PM EDT 09.03.09

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
OF JIMENA THIS MORNING…WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. 

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA…AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY…AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
WEAK…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND BAM SHALLOW.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     06/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Progress With California Wildfires; Hurricane Jimena, No Help…May even hurt a little September 3, 2009

Calfornia Wildfire Map Sept 2, 2009

for an update on the California Wildfires, including news on malware operatives exploiting the situation, CLICK HERE.

On Tuesday, the Station Fire in Southern California had charred some 122, 000 acres.  By Wednesday, that number had increased to 140,000 acres.  But, as I had mentioned the past few days, it appeared that humidity levels would be increasing and temperatures falling.   To support this notion, the forecast called for patchy morning fog.  Well, the humidity levels increased and firefighting efforts were aided to the point that fire officials say that the giant Station Fire is 22% contained.  Keep in mind, that’s not 22% out, just contained.  It’s progress.   

Investigators have been able to get to the suspected area where the fire originated, near a Forest Ranger Station, and the preliminary conclusion is that the Station Fire was man made.  The Station Fire as of Wednesday afternoon had burned 140,150 acres, destroyed 62 residences, 3 commercial properties, 27 other buildings, 10,000 residences threatened and as mentioned earlier, was 22% contained.  The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map indicates that there are several fires around the state, including 3 others not far from the Los Angeles area.  The Beaver Valley fire has backed off enough for residents to return.  There are still many California Wildfire Incident Reports coming in from around the state.  The story is one of international proportions. 

Big Tujunga Canyon Resident Returns to Ruins

 The Ottawa Citizen has a rather elaborate photo gallery from their sources in the region.  Wildfires are fairly common in the region as the average annual rainfall is rather low so it’s naturally dry and conditions that promote the spread of fire is not unusual.  That is part of the reason why fighting wildfires is different  in California  than other parts of the country.  Many states around the country are in a budget crunch, but it’s different in California in that regard as well.  California is in a bankruptcy crisis and yesterday’s report that they were running through the firefighting budget just two months into the fiscal year has led to today’s announcement that they California may be running through their emergency reserve. 

Hurricane Jimena 1:30Z Satellite Sept 3

Hurricane Jimena NHC Forecast Track 5PM EDT Sept 2

As stated on numerous previous posts, Hurricane Jimena is going to be no help.  In fact, I’m pondering whether or not the track of the hurricane may actually worsen conditions.  Previously, the storm was expected to northeast into New Mexico.  Now, the official forecast track has the storm hooking a left and go due west to die in the colder Pacific waters.  Now, as expected, the storm was falling apart when it approached southern Baja California as it began to encounter colder water from the California Stream.  A northeasterly track would have had circulation such that perhaps they’d get a wind with a more northerly component.  Now, with a track due west, I’m wondering if the broad scale circulation might be sufficient to turn the winds out of the east, which would bring the winds down from the mountains.  Those winds would be drying and warming as they move down the slope.  It’s possible that we may see a lowering of humidity and increase in tempertures…possibly even higher winds if the gradient is sufficient.  It will be interesting to see how it works out but I bet that the circulation field is not large enough to affect Southern California too much.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT.  THE
FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE PACIFIC
WATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD…AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR.  THUS…THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN…BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT…A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR…AND A REMNANT LOW BY
72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT…BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT
STAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA
SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR
SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE BULK
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC…A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST…NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W    75 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W    60 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W    45 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W    35 KT…OVER WATER
48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W    30 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN