California Wildfires Creative and Lame Reporting; Hurricane Jimena Won’t Help Much September 2, 2009

For a more recent update on the California Wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE   

Whenever there is a disaster, reporters tend to go back to the old treasure chest of cliches.  In the event of a tornado, one can always expect tired phrases such as “cars were tossed liked toys” or perhaps “homes reduced to kindling” and naturally, when it comes to people they are always left to “pick up the pieces of their lives.”  The UK Telegraph has gotten some inspiration and provides a time-lapse photography photojournalism spread of the fires.  And there are California Wildfire Photo Galleries from many sources.  But, for the most part, the wildfires in California have resulted in journalists revealing their lack of creativity by returning to the attic of adjectives by telling us of the “tinder dry” conditions.  I saw an anchorman described “howling winds” only to have the reporter on the scene say that there were not windy conditions normally associated with Southern California wildfires.  However, it must be pointed out that local winds will increase around the fires..perhaps up to 30 mph simply from the fire itself creating the winds.  Well, almost anytime there is a fire in Southern California, saying conditions are “tinder dry” would probably be accurate.  See, the area does not get that much rain. That is why they write songs that say things like it “seems it never rains in Southern California.”   The Los Angeles average rainfall is only about 14 inches.  Los Angeles water sources includes about 30% from groundwater and the remains from other sources including the Colorado River. 

Modern Borait Bomber-DC 10 Tanker holds 12,000 gallons

The current fire season has been difficult and aside from the tragic loss in life and destruction of property and disruption to ecosystems, the fiscal cost to the state is going to make the financial crisis in California even worse.  They are only 2 months into the fiscal year but have already spent nearly two thirds of the fire protection budget.   Reports have a bit of encouragement as the big Station Fire is said to be 5% contained with a hope to have it 10% contained shortly.  That means its still 90% out of control and some estimates reveal an expectation of it not being totally contained, not doused, for another two weeks. 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map shows that there are other fires in California. There is a very large number of incident reports constantly being updated.   But the Station Fire is the largest having grown to about 121,000 square acres by Tuesday evening.  It continues to threaten the communications towers on top of  Mt. Wilson and the FCC is setting out a plan to help should the towers be compromised.   Weather conditions are not expected to change too much though I’ve seen that patchy fog is expected to start appearing in the next few mornings which leads me to believe that there will be an increase in the moisture content of the air.  Temperatures are also forecast to back off.  But, don’t expect much in the way of help from Hurricane Jemina.

Hurricane Jimena Satellite Rainbow IR 22Z 09.01.09

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm EDT Sept 1 2009

Hurricane Jemina is losing some of its punch and will continue to do so.  While news reporters have reveled in reporting it was a category 4 hurricane was heading toward Baja California, they didn’t mention too much that it was forecast to weaken.  There is something called the California Stream.  Its the opposite of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic that Benjamin Franklin discovered is a natural current that transports warm water from around the Gulf of Mexico to up near England.  The California Stream takes cold water from Alaska and transports it down the Pacific Coast of the US.  Hurricane Jimena is running into some of that cold water off the west coast of Baja California.  But, the structures in many areas of Baja California are pretty much substandard so even a hurricane with 100 mph winds will cause trouble.  The exact track of the storm is a bit up in the air.  But there is ridge in Mexico that seems to generally be in charge of the steering which means that the storm will eventually end up in northern New Mexico and probably whats left of it will get caught up in a front in the United States and make its way to the Ohio Valley or northern plains.  It is improbable that the hurricane will turn toward Southern California.  I suspect that the only thing it will do is maybe increase humidity levels a shade and cause the wind flow to take a more consistent northerly component.

Sea Surface Temperatures Sept 1 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

EARLIER DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT JIMENA WAS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE…WITH THE INNER EYE DISSIPATING AND THE NEW EYE ABOUT
25-30 N MI ACROSS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN…THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS NOT CLEARED OUT.  BASED ON THIS…IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO…WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOMES
LESS CONFIDENT FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE GFDL AND GFDN STILL CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURES DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE…AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS THROUGH THROUGH 72 HR…AND THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR…AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HR.

IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE…AS JIMENA IS STARTING
TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A FASTER WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL…AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 72
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD
WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 21.9N 111.2W   110 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N 112.0W   105 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.7W    95 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.1W    85 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.6N 113.4W    55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W    35 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    25 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 113.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

California Fires Continue Expansion, Kill Two Firefighters; Hurricane Jimena headed North September 1, 2009

Modern Borate Bomber

for an update on the california wildfires and hurriane jimena CLICK HERE

If I still lived where I did in my early years, I’d be out of a home. The Station Wildfire near Los Angeles is burning out of control and late Monday reports say that over 12,000 homes are threatened from Pasadena to La Crescenta. I used to go to the YMCA at La Crescenta and I recally once a big brush fire behind the our house. From the YMCA I could see the powerline standards that were behind our house and I remember my mother frantically picking me up from the Y and screaming at me to get into the car as I said, “did you see all of that smoke by our house?” We didn’t get evacuated but there were ashes raining down on our house like snow. All of the houses on our street had rock roofs. There were what we called Borate Bombers, which was the reddish chemical retardant that they put on fires. They roared over our house. I believe at that time Borate Bombers were old B-17 bombers. They don’t use them any more but I’m pretty sure that the red stuff that they drop is the Borax based Borate we always used to see.   I don’t think that when we lived there, La Canada was considered an “exclusive community.”

The California Wildfire Interactive Map from the CA Emergency Management Agency shows that the Station Fire, as its known, started right by Angeles Crest Highway and has caused the death of two firefighters. I remember when they built that from a two lane road into a wide thoroughfare. It started kinda between Mt. Wilson and our house. Well, there aren’t any big winds so this thing is expanding in several directions. At the top of Mt. Wilson is a famous observatory that shows up in many movies. There are also a whole bunch of tv and radio towers and other transmission towers. I remember KTTV used to advertise that they transmitted “high atop Mt. Wilson.” The Mt. Wilson Observatory and the communications towers on Mt. Wilson are threatened. If they go down, it will be interesting to see what happens…it also may be dangerous as I suspect emergency communications depend on a relay at the top of the mountain.   There are also many fires in the state as outlined fire incident reports from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.   The  fire story is making global news as the Times of India passed along the report of 2 fatalities from the fires. 

Hurricane Jimena 00:30Z Rainbow IR 09/01/09

Hurricane Jimena Water Vapor Image 00:30 Sept 1, 2009

The region is extremely dry.   There may be some hope though in the form of Hurricane Jimena which is a powerful hurricane doing a rather odd thing.  It is approaching Category 5 status which is pretty rare for a storm off the Mexican Pacific Coast.  This guy has a central pressure on Monday afternoon of 931 mb.  That is pretty wild and very very unusual for a storm in this location.   It is not completely uncommon but not typical for a storm to also move north. It is expected to do so across Baja California and then continue into the Southwestern United States.   Now, when a storm does that, it rapidly loses its intensity so I would not expect it to bring drenching rains to  Southern California.  If you look at the water vapor image to te left, you can see all of the extreme dry air to the northwest of Jimena.  But, it could very possibly increase the general humidity levels which would be a help.    As we get toward the weekend a strong shortwave seems to want to show up in the flow on some of the models and move off the coast into the Los Angeles area.  That too may prove to be a help from Mother Nature. 

NHC Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm PDT Aug 31, 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA…AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT…AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS…PRIMARILY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO…THE MOTION IS
BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL…LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL…PREVIOUSLY
WESTERN OUTLIERS…HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS.  HOWEVER THE U.K. AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALSO…INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED…NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT…AND
DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  IN
FACT…THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED.  MOREOVER…TRACK FORECAST
ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W   135 KT
12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W   130 KT
24HR VT     01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W   125 KT
36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W   115 KT
48HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W    85 KT
72HR VT     03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W    50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W    50 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W    30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH