When War Closed the NYSE for Nearly 5 Months November 28, 2010

Silent Cal Knew About America's Business

On This Date in History:  When World War I first broke out, the United States was officially neutral.  Calvin Coolidge would later say as President that the business of America was business and that idea had already taken hold at the outset of the Great War.  America not only wanted to stay out of the war, but also expected the beligerants to adhere to international law and allow Uncle Sam to conduct business as usual.  That meant allowing the United States to continue to participate in free trade.  Well, the Brits weren’t about to give up their advantage on the high seas by allowing Germany to get supplies, even food, from overseas.  Any supplies that Germany got would add to its ability to make war.  So, the Royal Navy used its huge numerical advantage to use with a naval blockade.  The US was not happy that its ships were being stopped and searched or its ships were denied entry to certain ports.  But, typically, American merchants were simply escorted to British ports by the navy and their cargo was searched.  A process was also set up for damage reparation claims.  Fearing that good were getting to the Axis powers in an indirect way, the British expanded the blockade to include neutral Baltic states.

Sinking of Lusitania Changed American Attitude

The Germans did not have a surface fleet sufficient to blockade goods from the Allies so they went below the waves.  The Germans used their U-Boats, or submarines, to sink ships that were supplying the Allies, mainly through England.  The difference between the two was that the U-Boats dispensed with the dangerous, more acceptable practice of stopping and searching ships and simply began torpedoing ships without warning.  If the ship was suspected of supplying the Allies, the fish went in the water and down went the ship.  Activity such as this began to gain the ire of the Americans with the sinking of the Lusitania in 1915.

Solid Line Nominal Prices; dashed "real" prices

Most of the time, people think that war is good for business.  But, in this case, a compelling argument can be made that both before and after US entry into World War I, American business was adversely affected.  One casualty of the war was the stock market.  When war first broke out in 1914, the financial world was fearful of what would happen in international markets;  perhaps European stock holders would sell their equities and the market would crash.  So, in July 1914, the New York Stock Exchange closed and stayed closed for about 5 months.  The thinking was that, with the major stock exchanged closed in the US and others overseas disrupted by war, then it would be much more difficult for anyone to dump their stocks.  But, almost immediately, a curb or street exchange developed with traders working about a block from Wall Street matching up buyers and sellers for securities.  It provided some much needed liquidity and was referred to as New Street.  However, Uncle Sam ran into a problem.  The government needed money and raising taxes wasn’t enough.  They needed to sell bonds but without a market to sell its debt, then it was in trouble.  So, on this date in 1914, the only US exchange reopened on a limited basis.  Equities were still not traded but bond markets were re-opened.  A few days later, stocks resumed trading.  And, there was no crash.  But, there also wasn’t a war boom.  For the most part, the stock market went sideways except when one figures in the effect of inflation.  In that case, the real stock value was decidedly downward. 

Most of the time, we think of the US as being a wild west show when it came to financial markets prior to the Great Depression; that before 1929 there was no government regulation.  But, as this story illustrates, the Federal Government was indeed involved in trying to control market results.  In this case, it had the largest exchange in the world shuttered until the government needed it.  Talk about insider trading.  But, it was all about business and the declaration of Silent Cal was true before he was president and 80 years after his administration.  The business of America is business.

1987 Stock Market Crash Example of Increasing Risks in Investing October 19, 2010

Biggest Single-Day Market Drop in History Oct 19 1987

On This Date in History:   After a run-up in the Dow Jones industrial average over the past several weeks that put it in positive territory by some 8% for the year, it took a tumble.  The Dow gave back about 1.5%, or 165 points to close as session that saw the big board showing a deficit well over 200 before the close.  Profits have been up for a large number of companies during the most recent “earnings season” but the Dow took a hit anyway.  The general consensus is that China raising its interest rates was the catalyst.  With a rise in Chinese interest rates, that economy may slow down and so the dollar got stronger.  The dollar rose 1.7% and commodities, including oil, fell.  Oil had been up about 13% over the past month, mainly due to a weakening dollar.  Since most commodities, including oil, are traded in dollars then when the dollar gets weaker the price of commodities rise.  Earlier this year when there was the European fiscal crisis, the dollar rose and oil prices fell.  When the crisis seemed to pass, then the dollar got weaker against other commodities and oil prices rose.  So, it would appear that, at the current time, the Dow Jones and other indices such as the S&P 500 are responding to currency exchange rates.  I think the volatility in the face of positive earnings reports just shows how nervous the investing class is at this time.

Media Hype in 1987 Proved Unfounded

However, Wall Street is not as nervous as it was 23 years ago when, on this date in 1987, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 508 points.  It became known as “Black Monday,” though its seems that moniker has been used in some form in the past.  That represented a decline of over 22% in one day of trading.  For a similar shock to happen today, the Dow would have to fall about 2400 points in one day.  Back in 1987 on October 19, the S&P 500 fell over 20% so it was a broad sell off of stocks.  The date marked the end of a bull market that had driven the Dow from 776 points in August 1982 to a high of over 2700 points in August 1987.  There was great concern in the media that we were in the midst of another potential 1929 scenario but the market said otherwise.  The very next day, the market had its biggest gain ever when it rose over 100 points and two days later rose 186 points.  By 1989, the Dow had recovered all it had lost on that one day and continued to rise for many years thereafter.  In comparison, the largest single day point drop for the Dow Jones happened on Sept 28, 2008 when it fell 778 points but that represented only a 7% decline.

Thousands lost jobs on Wall Street After 1987 Crash

So often, we hear that the market is a forecaster of the days to come so many experts thought the crash meant that it was the sign of a new recession.  The fallout though turned out to be relatively minimal.  Now, it certainly was a recession for the 15,000 folks on Wall Street who lost thier jobs, but the rest of the economy wasn’t overly affected. An easy answer to simply say that the Dow had risen about 300% in 5 years and people simply took their money off the table.  That is certainly true and probably was an incentive to sell at the first time of trouble.  Still,  it’s not totally clear of the cause, though there are numerous opinions.  However,  there seems to have been a number of factors that had more to do with a changing trading envrionment and new technology than anything else. 

Traders in a Frenzy like in this photo from 1987 may be a thing of the past with the increase in computer trading

It’s as if it was a hiccup in a transition from the old world to the new.  The Brady Commission, formally known as the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms, determined that the failure of stock markets and derivatives markets to operate in sync was the major factor behind the crash.  Several sources put the blame on the then relatively new practice of using computer programs to initiate trades.  The idea is that when certain conditions were met, computers used by large, institutional investors sold large quantities of stocks and a waterfall effect followed suit.  Only trouble with this argument is that markets that did not use computers also dove.  But, it seems to me that if traders on other markets saw the Dow tanking that maybe panic would set in.  Another finger has been pointed at the lack of liquidity of the market.  Traders were unable to handle the large number of trade orders that came in and trading was halted for many stocks.  While it clearly was a problem it doesn’t explain why so many people decided to sell at once.  The bond market at the time featured yields that had risen from 7.6% to over 10% and that provided a nice haven for folks investing in the equity market but those rates did not rise overnight.  Perhaps it provided for a nice alternative and may have encouraged nervous investors who found it a lucrative place to park their tidy profits, but it doesn’t explain the everyone overboard scenario.

Politicians Have Gotten Involved With The Economy for Years

So, a look at what might have happened in preceeding days that may have caused people to collectively decide the party was over might be useful.  Many historians look to consideration by Congress of the Smoot Hawley Act as the cause for the crash in 1929 followed by an extension of doldrums when Herbert Hoover actually signed it.  Now, from October 14, 1987 to October 19 1987, the Dow lost about 30% of its value so the decline really started a few days before the bottom fell out.  It just so happens that on October 14, 1987 US Secretary of the Treasury James Baker announced that there may be a need to follow a weak-dollar policy as part of a larger scheme to stablize global currencies.  That announcment may have influenced foreign investors to pull out of dollar denominated assets.  Then, on October 15 the House Ways and Means Committee passed legislation that eliminated tax deductions by corporations on debt used for corporate takeovers.  Securities and Exchange Commission economists Mark Mitchell and Jeff Netter pointed exactly to that legislation as the underlying cause of the crash in their 1989 published report. 

People Take Different Approaches to "Playing" The Market Though Wise, Prudent Investing May Be the Best Course of Action..But It Can Be Boring

One this is for certain, investing in markets is not a simple proposition and it becomes more complicated every day.  The more we advance in technology, the more new concerns arise and new rules or limitations get considered.  The more the world gets intertwined in the business of economics, the more events in other parts of the world affect the markets at home.  Then there are the traditional risks of interest rates, exchange rates, market risk and just plain the risk involved with the specifics of any underlying company.  The stock market is not for everyone but the more people get involved in markets through their pensions or 401K’s the more markets volatility directly affects individuals.  But, most people assume that the market just goes up and their 401K is always going to grow and that is not the case.  If you want a guarantee, get a toaster.  Better yet, brokers and financial advisors are charged with recommending investments that are suitable to their clients needs, desires and sophistication.  I would submit that most folks who lose money have not been advised properly.  Many of the former employees of Enron were misled into believing that their company stock was a sure bet.  No doubt, many people let their own greed get in the way, preferring to believe that there is a quick way to make a buck as opposed to taking a more prudent way to invest.  One thing I found that is wrong with our markets is that so many people see the market as a horse race or a casino.  They don’t invest in a company but instead bet that it will go up.  Day traders could care less about the company’s long term viability and are more interested in short, quick gains or losses.  They get in or get out by buying and selling or selling short and closing out the position.  That is especially true of options  traders.  That attitude has spilled over into commodity markets where people buy and sell contracts to purchase and underlying commodity, like oil, with no intention of ever taking delivery on that contract.  The bottom line is we have many examples of the complexities of the markets and it would be wise to learn the rules of the game before you jump into the pool.  Its not for the faint of heart.

JP Morgan Rejects GM’s Pleas, the Company Thrives; Morgan Bails Out GM, The Founder Lost His Job September 16, 2010

Nice Guess

On this Date in History: I read an article from the Wall Street Journal from January of 2008. It read that oil prices were around $90 a barrel and were expected to remain around that level. It had a quote from a learned man who said, at that time,  that he expected the price of oil  to drop to about $67 a barrel.   While he didn’t put a time qualifier on the statement,  about 6 months after this artcle came out the price of oil was over $140 a barrel.  I related this story to one of my classes and one student said that it sounded like someone sucks at their job. The point is we often hear these great ideas and pontifications from “experts” that turn out to be wrong by a long shot, if not completely opposite of reality.

Durant Was No Quitter

At the dawn of the 20th Century,  animal power remained much of the energy that drove the economy, though certainly not as much as at the turn of the 19th Century.  Aside from the railroads, animal power was particularly necessary for transportation and for agricultural interests. A United States Senator, Chauncey Depew, said with full confidence that “nothing has come along to beat the horse.”  He suggested to those who might invest in alternative forms of transportation to “keep your money.” Now, one who is looked up to as one who had a great financial mind and who was quite savvy in investing was J. P. Morgan. Well, Morgan had a chance to get into the automobile business in 1908 when he was approached by William Crapo Durant for a loan. Durant and Benjamin Briscoe wanted financing for the proposed merger of their two fledgling automobile companies, Buick and Maxwell-Briscoe. Durant told Morgan that automobile sales would reach a half million per year. Upon hearing Durant’s prediction, one of Morgan’s partners sniffed, “If he has any sense, he’ll keep such notions to himself.”

Depew Left Holding the Horse Shovel

Well, the deal didn’t go through and Briscoe is left to the asheep of history. But Durant soldiered on without any backing of financiers and formed a holding company on this date in 1908 with $2000 and without J.P. Morgan. Instead, he sold shares of stock and raised about $12 million in a couple of weeks. He called it General Motors. He acquired Olds Motor Works later that year, then subsequently bought Cadillac, Pontiac (originally known as Oakland), Cartercar, Ewing and Elmore. But, in 1910, Durant was in a tight financial situation and he turned to competitors of Morgan for help. Durant apparently used the financing to continue to acquire other companies. That led to more problems but, by then,  automobiles were getting popular enough that I suppose JP Morgan had changed his mind.   Around 1920, General Motors found itself with $30 million in debt and huge obstacles ahead. Durant went back to Morgan and Pierre du Pont who were two giants of the financial world. The financiers saved the company but effectively finished off Durant at GM. See, part of the deal was that Durant was out and du Pont took over as President. But, don’t feel too bad for Durant. He’s one of those guys who never quit, following the advice of the old gridiron sage, Granville Hambright who often told his Junior High football players that “a winner never quits and a quitter never wins.”    Durant went on to found a new company. You might have heard of it…Chevrolet.

Sloan: Father of Modern Corporation?

Dupont served as President of GM until 1923 when he turned the reigns over the Alfred P. Sloan who focused his attention on managing the company more effectively. Ever wonder why there are new models to cars every year? It was Sloan’s idea. How about the different pricing structure of different brands in the company? That was Sloan too. By the late 1920′s, GM passed Ford as the leader in automobile sales.  For his company,  Henry Ford  focused his attention on more efficient manufacturing instead of management, marketing and finance. Later in the 20th century, GM became the largest corporation in the world…a title it later lost and did so in quite a spectacular fashion.

Ford Legacy: Don't Give Up Control

Some interesting aspects of this story. First off, it took the geniuses like Morgan a dozen years to figure out that a visionary like Durant was right all along. Durant had the vision but he didn’t have the know-how regarding making his dream come to fruition. What is interesting is that Henry Ford rebuffed the attempts of outside financiers to take over Ford Motor Company when things turned tough in the Depression. Yet, General Motors has an early history of near disaster before they got it right.

At the first part of the 20th century, General Motors needed help and so they went to private financial institutions for that help. When they were denied, founder Durant figured out a way to move ahead while some of his competitors went by the wayside. Then additional help came in the form of the previously reluctant Morgan. Ford probably worked with Morgan on a number of deals, but none with the expressed intent of saving the company. In fact, in the early 1920′s when Ford faced potential bankruptcy, Henry Ford turned down financing from big investment houses who required that Ford turn over control of the company, like Durant did. In the early 21st century, it’s deja vu. But, this time, General Motors turned to the Federal Government (taxpayers) to get saved and private investors (stock holders, bond holders) ended up with the short end of the stick. Instead of financiers like du Pont taking control of the company, the government fired the head of GM. Meanwhile, Ford did not take government money and continues to move forward and maintain control of the company, in the same tradition of the company’s founder, Henry Ford.   While Ford Motor Company in late 2010 still had about $27 Billion in debt, it had reduced its debt by $4 Billion, had positive cash flow and the outlook for Ford looks bright in some circles with some analysts project Ford having more cash than debt by 2012.  But, be careful, those are just “expert” opinions and remember, Morgan’s experts thought that the automobile was a loser investment 100 years earlier.  What a difference a century makes. In some ways, not one bit. In other ways, a huge difference.

Weather Bottom Line:  We got the light rain in the morning but it doesn’t look like it will help advance the notion of rain, let alone thunderstorms on Thursday evening or afternoon.  It’s just too stable an atmosphere and that’s too bad because we need the rain.  This was our big chance and it wasn’t too good to begin with.  Look for a pleasant Friday with a return to hot, but relatively dry, conditions for the weekend into early next week.

Some Say Friday 13th is Bad Luck; Study Claims It’s Bad For The Economy August 13, 2010

Bad Luck: Horse or Driver?

This Date Happens At Least Once AYear:  Because there are 7 days in a week, there is at least one Friday the 13th each year. Sometimes there are two and occasionally, there are three; 2009 was one of those years. It looks like to me, though I haven’t researched it fully, that whenever there are three it often happens in February, March and November, but not always. The next time the trio of malaise shows up will be in 2012, then 2015 and then again in 2026.

According to the founder of the Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute, “It’s been estimated that $800 or $900 Million  is lost in business on this day because people will not fly or do business they would normally do. ” Some people are apparently so fearful that they won’t even get out of bed. I guess it’s Friday 13th for me every day because I never want to get out of bed. People won’t buy a house or even buy stocks. They claim that Friday 13th phobia affects some 20 million Americans. They’ll probably get a bailout from the “stimulus bill.” How do you know if you have the phobia? Symptoms are described as ranging from mild panic attacks to huge panic attacks that render the victim pretty useless to the point that they don’t go to work. If I had a job, I wonder if that would qualify as an excused sick day from work. An English psychologist interviewed about 2100 people in 2003 and found that about one fourth associated the number 13 with bad luck. Apparently, people who think of themselves as unlucky are most likely to believe in superstitions.

Deceptive Loki

Apparently, this obsession with the number 13 goes back a ways, as most of these type of things seem to do. This one is blamed on the Norseman that involves a story of 12 gods having a party at Valhalla. Presumably they aren’t talking about the golf course in Louisville. In walked an uninvited guest…a party crasher named Loki. Loki went and got Hoder, the blind god of darkness to fire a mistletow dipped arrow at Balder the Beautiful, the joy and gladness god. I suppose that mistletoe isn’t too good for you because Balder died. With the god of joy and gladness gone, the earth turned dark. Everyone was sad and it has been associated as a bad, unlucky day ever since.

They also try to drag Christianity into it by pointing out that Judas was the 13th person to show up at the Last Supper and then was the one who betrayed Jesus of Nazareth. If that’s not enough, then there is the Roman story of how 12 witches who routinely would gather together with the 13th who showed up being considered the devil.

A mathematician blames it all on the number 13 suffering the fate of following 12. This guy says that numerologists consider 12 a complete number as there are 12 months in a year, 12 gods of Olympus, 12 tribes of Israel, 12 apostles of Jesus and 12 signs of the zodiac. If you exceed 12 by one, then you get a little beyond completeness and “the number becomes restless and squirmy, which suggests that numbers are alive. This fear of the number 13 has worked its way into modern culture as the claim is that 80% of all high rises lack a 13th floor.

Was I Cursed on 13th Floor at Jester Hall?

What does that mean for me? I lived on the 13th floor of Jester Hall at the University of Texas. I was a cursed freshman and didn’t know it.

Many airports apparently do not have a gate 13, Hospitals and hotels often do not have a room 13, in Florence, Italy houses between 12 and 14 get an address of 12 and a half instead of 13. French socialites are known as quatorziens or fourteeners so as to make sure they have 14 dinner guests. Wonder what happens if someone gets sick? Do they cancel the party?

Apollo 13 Doomed by 13?

Want proof of the evils of the number 13? Why just look at Apollo 13, the ill fated trip to the moon. It departed on April 11, 1970 at 1:13 pm Houston time. Never mind they launched on east coast time. Anyway, 1:13 pm is 13:13 in 24 hour clock time. April 11, 1970 can also be written as 4/11/70. Four plus One plus One plus Seven plus Zero equals 13. Or you can say 4+11+70 + 85 and 8+5 =13. Their last television broadcast was on April 13. They entered the moon’s gravitational field on April 13 and were scheduled to land on the moon on April 13. The failure of the number 2 oxygen tank occurred on Apirl 13th at 3:08:53.555 UTC which in the eastern time zone would be 9:08:53:555. 9+8+53+555=625 and 6+2+5 =13. If the explosion that caused the damage had occured on earth, it was supposedly estimated to cost $13 million to repair the damage. Seems like someone had a lot of time on their hands.

Gristle Can Cure What Ails You

Now, Friday seems to get suckered into this by going back to Christianity and pointing out that Jesus died on a Friday. What they fail to mention is that Christians ironically call this “Good Friday.” Supposedly, some biblical scholars claim that Cain killed Able on Friday the 13th and that Adam was tempted by Eve on a Friday. How they can know this is beyond me.

If you find yourself believing in all of this and have a fear of Friday 13th, then you should consider yourself a

Burn'em if you Got'em

triskaidekaphobe. But, there is hope for you. Modern psychology says that all you need to do is focus your mind on pleasant thoughts. You haven’t lost your mind, you’ve just lost control of your mind. You should realize that you have the ability to create your own luck and its up to you to decide if that is good or bad.

I don’t like those ideas. Since most of this is folklore, I like the old remedies. One is to climb a mountain or the top of a skyscraper…kinda like King Kong. Once you get there, burn all of the socks you own that have holes in them. What if you don’t have any holey socks. Then you can stand on your head and eat a piece of gristle. If you can’t stand on your head, don’t know what gristle is and don’t have holes in your socks, then I guess you’re just out of luck.

Weather Bottom Line:  We will again push toward 100 and there will probably be a few t’storms in the late afternoon.  Saturday we will see an increase in activity with the approach of a cold front.  That front will slowly pass through; slow enough to provide a fairly decent chance for rain on Sunday as well.  The front will pass through and we’ll knock some 10-12 degrees off the temperatures with someone lower humidity….in other words we’ll get back to seasonal average highs for a few days.  Some relief but not a real pattern change.

Transatlantic Cable Led To Bargain AKA The Alaska Purchase March 30, 2010

How Did the Transatlantic Cable Lead to the Purchase of Alaska?

Great Eastern Steamship Dwarfed All Other Ships of the Day

On This Date in History:  In Antebellum America of  the mid 19th Century, a message could be sent from New Orleans to Maine in a matter of minutes.  But,  that same message might take two weeks to get to London as it was unthinkable to be able to lay a cable all the way across the Atlantic Ocean.  Unthinkable to everyone but Cyrus Field.  Field was a paper merchant who had been so successful in business that he was able to retire by age 34 when he came up with a plan to lay a transatlantic cable.   He thought that it wasn’t quite a difficult as it sounded because he figured that the cable could rest on an underwater plateau between Newfoundland and Ireland.  He was so certain of success, that in 1856 he formed the Atlantic Telegraph Company after meeting a Canadian from Newfoundland looking for investors for his nearly bankrupt telegraph concern.  Even though he had his own ideas, well-meaning citizens offered their own suggestions.  One suggested have floating call boxes so that passing ships could stop and send a message.  Another suggested suspending a cable by underwater balloons. 

Some Russians Were Rather Fond of Alaska

Aside from the hair-brained ideas, even the more rational ones faced some issues.  The cable weighed one ton per mile yet snapped quite easily in the rolling seas.  The North Atlantic is not exactly the calmest weather in the world so there were constant delays.  To help battle the elements and also haul the giant and heavy cable, Fields called on the service of the world’s biggest ship.  The Great Eastern steamship, at 32,000 tons was five times bigger than the next biggest ship.   After two years, a cable was finally laid and the continents were connected.  The great success didn’t last though because after an inaugural message from Queen Victoria to President James Buchanan, the line went dead.  Perry McDonough Collins saw Fields misfortune as an opportunity.  See, Collins had another idea.  He went to Western Union with the proposal to run a cable under the Bering Strait and then across Siberia to Europe.  Work was begun in Alaska but Fields had not given up on the oceanic route.  It took 12 years of effort and failure but on July 27, 1866 the Transatlantic Cable finally reached Newfoundland and this time it worked.  Well, that was the end of the Siberian route but the poor guys working on it didn’t learn they were out of job for a year due to….slow communications.

Collins' Men Didn't Know the Job Was Terminated For a Whole Year

Again, misfortune became a catalyst for unforseen success.  In order to work on his project, Collins had secure diplomatic connections fromboth Russia and the United States.  The efforts involved Secretary of State William H. Seward who, while helping Abraham Lincoln manage the Civil War, had also been involved in Collins Siberian scheme as well as the plans of Field.  While the  Bering Strait cable did not come about, conversations between the US and Russia continued.  Russia had established a presence in Alaska in the early 18th century but had been trying to unload it on the United States since around the time that Field had started his Transatlantic Cable project.  But, President Buchanan had his hands  full with a country heading to Civil War, though I’m not exactly sure what Buchanan was doing because he certainly had not done much to head off that great conflict. 

Cartoon Depicting "Andy" Johnson and "Billy" Seward Trying to Sell Alaska Ice Block to Congress

Seward really liked the idea of grabbing Alaska but the many other Americans weren’t too keen on the idea.  The nation was in debt and trying to rebuild the South after the war.  Alaska was wilderness and in a very inhospitable environment.  Many people thought that the idea was so idiotic that the plan was called “Icebergia,” “Walrussia,”  ”Seward’s Ice Box” and, most famously, ”Seward’s Folly.”  Nevertheless, on this date in 1867, William H. Seward turned his folly into reality when Russia agreed to sell Alaska to the United States for $7.2 million.  That is less than half of what was paid for Louisiana 64 years earlier.  It came out to about 2 cents per acre.   Seward had no way of knowing it, but the folly turned into literally a gold mine in just 20 years.  Gold was discovered in the 1890′s and the nations wealth increased.  Now, Alaska has oil.  The US has reaped hundreds of millions of dollars in royalties from oil produced on federal land and offshore waters of Alaska.  Then there is also the rich fishing industry in the dangerous but fruitful Alaskan waters. 

Congress Finally Forked Over the Money in August 1868

In the end what originally was a failed venture to connect North America to Europe resulted in the United States acquiring territory that initially increased it’s size by 20%.  The nation not only gained access to the obvious timber natural resources and fishing rights, but unwittingly also gained enormous access to gold.  Then when huge oil fields were discovered and the ability to bring it to market was developed, the benefit of Seward’s Folly became astronomical.  It’s hard to say which was the better deal: The Louisiana Purchase or the Alaskan Purchase.  But, one thing’s for certain, we could probably use another folly today that would bring such a huge return on investment.  But, it almost didnt’ happen.  See…Congress was leary.  The Senate has the power to approve treaties and it voted to ratify the treaty by a 37 to 2 majority.  But, the House of Representatives controls the purse strings and opponents of Seward’s Ice Box threatened to not provide the funds for the purchase.  It took a year but the Alaska Purchase Treaty was ultimately funded a year after the treaty was signed with a 113 to 48 vote.

Great Weather Ahead

Weather Bottom Line:  Enjoy the rest of the week as we move to 80 or so by Thursday and Friday.  It will be interesting to see how a weekend frontal system unfolds.  The SPC has a storm risk in Texas but I’m a bit curious about Saturday evening here.  Might be interesting but the dynamics might not come together.  Forget about it for now. Just enjoy the week.

Could Donald Trump Lose His Name? March 1, 2010

Trump May Have to Fire His Name!

Surely Dad Won't Have To Kiss Ivanka Goodbye with his Name?

What’s In a Name?  Donald Trump and his casino arm, Trump Entertainment, filed for bankruptcy for a third time in February 2009.  This third bankruptcy filing is not too big of an indictment on Trump given that the economy has hurt the gaming industry nationwide.  Trump tried to flip a deal in which he would buy out the bondholders but those who owned the bonds didn’t go for it but it was announced in November 2009 that Trump and his daughter Ivanka would retain a stake in the company and take it out of bankruptcy in a new deal.  But there was a fly in the ointment.  That fly was none other than Carl Icahn who is a very prominent investor.  Seems Ichan bought a bunch of the bonds and Icahn announced a rival plan to take over the Trump casinos.

Carl Icahn Has A great Name for Investing...but a Casino?

So, now the two titans face off in bankruptcy court and the most interesting charges flying have to do with the “Trump” name.  Icahn want’s to buy the casinos and keep the name without Donald or Ivanka.  Some say that the Trump image has been tarnished by a number of financial battles in which The Apprentice star finds himself.  In fact, Icahn lawyers in court filings said that, “The Trump name may no longer be ‘synonymous with business acumen, high quality and style, a luxury lifestyle and enormous success’ as Mr. Trump asserts.”   Say what you want about Donald’s hair but there is no way that Mr. Trump would allow an attack on the family name to go unanswered.  He implied under crossexamination that Mr. Icahn’s name has been associated with some less-than-successful deals of his own saying,  ”Well, Mr. Icahn has led companies into many, many bankruptcies.”

"Con" Works with Extermination Products

So the fight goes on.  Trump is arguing that Icahn does not have the right to take his name if he takes the casinos.  Icahn says that he does.  But, there’s the kicker and perhaps the ultimate insult.  A Wall Street Journal article says that the main reason Mr. Icahn wants to retain the Trump name is that it would cost $15 to $20 million to change the signs.  He says that, otherwise, the name has nothing to do with the future success of the properties.  Ouch!   In court, Trump says that Icahn should not be able to to take over the casinos at all, painting an unflattering picture of a quick buck artist, perhaps not unlike Gordon Gekko.  Trump doesn’t say that Icahn won’t spend money to rebuild the casinos and the brand name, the New York Post reported that he says Icahn is a “cheapskate” who wouldn’t spend three dollars.  Mr. Trump says, “If Carl spends $3, I’d be shocked.” 

"Con" Worked for a Movie But Not Sure if it Fits Casino

Now, who knows how this whole thing will come out in the wash.  But, the fact that anyone is saying that the only reason he wants to keep the Trump name on the buildings is becuase he doesn’t want to spend the money to change the name is amazing.  It may support Trump’s assertion about Icahn or it may be Mr. Icahn’s way of sticking it to a rival.  Either way, it seems rather odd for someone to be able to lose his name if he loses his business. I suppose it has happened before but still…a Trump named casino without a Trump?  I guess it’s better than an alternative like “Icahn Casino” which is pronounced Eye Con.  Somehow I think that there may be a bit of a difficulty in the marketing department with attracting customers to I Con Casino.  It workd for ConAir which was a ficticious movie starring Nicolas Cage and it works with bug killer..D-Con…but I’m just not certain about a Casino.  Maybe the Trump name is worth more than Icahn is letting on.

By Wed AM, all critical thickness or freezing lines are well south

GFS claims a little moisture in our area with East Coast Storm Early Wed AM

Weather Bottom Line: We did get to 41 but largely, the day was just like Sunday which was still cold and not feeling like much of a warm up.  A system is running along the Gulf Coast and will take a turn across Georgia and then off the North Carolina Coast and up the eastern seaboard.  Look for more snow stories from the Northeast this week but not as dramatic as the last couple of storms.  The bulk of this guy should stay far enough offshore as to not affect more than coastal regions with snow, but it still may be significant in some areas.  As the low passes us to the South, the long wave pattern will again adjust with the base of the trof to our South.  A couple of flurries will be possible Tuesday night or early Wednesday but the moisture will more or less be cut off by the Appalacians so it doesn’t look like a big deal.  I still think that we don’t get out of the 30′s on Tuesday or Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.  We get some sun on Friday and  move to the low 40′s before getting into the average range for Saturday…which is about 51. So don’t break out the tanning butter.  But, if we can’t have snow, I say go to 70.  This Houston-type of winter weather in the 40′s and clouds stinks.  If its gonna be cold, then lets have some exciting snow. If not, then let spring hurry up and get here and let me plant my sunflowers.  A little rain Sunday or Monday won’t be out of the question as the long wave pattern may be breaking after about 2 months of it being stuck.

Villified Corporate Bosses Sometimes Are Great Americans February 25, 2010

Union Pacific Stock Certificate Artwork Symbolized Innovation and Progress of E.H. Harriman

"Think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?"

On This Date in History:  Do you remember the movie, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?   It starred Robert Redford as Sundance and Paul Newman as Butch.  It had some amusing scenes and some were actually based on some true events, though maybe not events associated with Butch Cassidy.  For instance, there was the great scene in which the Hole in the Wall Gang try to rob a train.  Woodcock was the man inside the car and he had been held up by Butch and Sundance before.   So, the second time, he refuses to open the door of the car and Butch uses dynamite to blow the door only to blow up the entire car.  Sundance asks, “think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?”  Well, I suspect that this type of event really happened only it was an event in the life of whom I called the worst outlaw in the old west, Al Jennings.  Now, part of the comedic aspects of these train robberies was Woodcock’s outspoken loyalty to Mr. E. H. Harriman.  As it turns out, E. H. Harriman was indeed a real person and a very powerful and influencial man.

Union Pacific Fell Hard and Fast After Triumph At Promontory, Utah in 1869

Episcopal minister Orlando Harriman and his wife, Cornelia Neilson, brought Edward H. Harriman into the world in Hempstead, New York on this date in 1848.  Young Edward hated school, dropped out at age 14 and became a broker’s boy.  He amazed the stock brokers at his ability to pick stocks.  By the time he was 21, he had his own seat on the stock exchange.   He got interested in railroads when he tried to revive some distressed rail lines owned by his wife’s relatives.  He apparently was the type of man who dove into his projects because he became very astute when it came to managing rail flow as well as the technological aspects of steam locomotion.  He also seemed to enjoy the challenge of rehabilitating depressed railroads.   So, he moved on to a more ambitious project: saving the Union Pacific Railroad.

Harriman Rebulding the Union Pacific in 1899

The Union Pacific had been one of the railroads that completed the transcontinental railroad.  But, by 1897, it was but a shadow of its former self as its equipment fell into disrepair, the business had become extremely inefficient and in general was behind the times.  In about a decade, E. H. Harriman had turned the Union Pacific into one of best run railroads and companies in the nation.  As part of his revival of the Union Pacific, he gobbled up weaker railroads in the West and Southwest in order to maximize profits and efficiency.  His business created a concentration of power in the transportation business that was vital to the American economy.  That got the attention of the great “trust buster” President Theodore Roosevelt.  He sued Harriman and the Union Pacific for violation of anti-trust laws and the US Supreme Court ordered that Harriman divest in 1904. 

Railroad Was A Wreck Until Harriman

Because Harriman adamently refused to explain his rationale, he is viewed in history as a robber baron who only wanted to make more money for himself at the expense of others.  But, like John D. Rockefeller, Harriman went about his business in an effort to maximize efficiency and a more efficient transportation system was a benefit to the economy and the nation as a whole. He didn’t buy railroads for a quick profit but instead believed that a more efficient operation and improvement to the railroad property would maximize profitability.  It can be argued that monopolies are the most efficient way to bring a product or service to the public but, that is dependent on having an honorable person at the helm.  However, pragmatically, the temptation to take advantage of the opportunities presented by a monopoly is extreme and the risk involved is just  too great to allow that to happen as a matter of  normal business.    Rockefeller defended his position and left a large portion of his enormous fortune to build the University of Chicago and the Rockefeller Institute and also greatly improve education of minorities in the South. 

John Muir Painted A Different Picture of E. H. Harriman

Harriman did not defend himself and, regardless of what he did, is largely remembered as an evil Robber Baron.  Nevertheless, had someone like Harriman not come along and improved the transportation system, the American marketplace and economy may not have evolved as quickly and with such gusto as it did from the late 19th century into the 20th century.  Harriman established standards for locomotives, cars, bridges, structures, signals, and even such items as paint and stationery.  And, he spearheaded an expedition to Alaska in 1899 that brought valuable knowledge to the science community.   He probably should be praised, not buried.  Naturalist John Muir, who founded the Sierra Club, wrote this about Harriman:

“Comparatively few have gained anything like adequate knowledge of the extent and warmth of his sympathies, but none who came nigh him could fail to feel his kindness, especially in his home, radiating a delightful, peaceful atmosphere, the finest domestic weather imaginable. His warm heart it was that endeared him to his friends, but in almost every way he was a man to admire—in apparent repose brooding his work plans, or in grand, overcoming, enthusiastic action shoving them forward, rejoicing and influencing all the country like climate; when silent in company, or at long intervals giving out something striking, saying the commonest things in unforgettable ways and making them seem uncommon in the new light flashed upon them; when severe and rigid as fate; or merry in friendly conversation, eye striking eye, thought clashing against thought making wit sparkles fly.” 

Does that sound like the Robber Baron presented to us in history?  Often, labels given by historians or popular culture do not fit the man.

Early Afternoon Saturday NAM Shows Low to Mid 30's....Dont Look For a Warm Up

NAM Nudges Us Over 32 by early Afternoon Despite less than 5400 thickness

Weather Bottom Line:  Now, yesterday, I told you that I am a bit handicapped by not having access to a Skew-T/Log P diagram, though I may have said Log P/Skew T.  This would be helpful as general rules of thumb come into conflict with reality when we have a change of seasons.  It’s good to be able to analyze what is happening.  So, I often have to rely on experience.  For instance, I saw forecasts for Wednesday that called for highs of 36, 37 or 38 degrees.  Now, a rule of thumb is that freezing conditions can generally be found when there is a 1000mb – 5oomb thickness of 5400 meters or less.  Different times of year and other variables mess that up but, in this case, we are still in winter, the forecast was for cloudy skies and with light snow or flurries all day which would tend to drag cold air down.  The thickness forecast for the models had it going from 5230 mb to 5130 mb.  I could not figure out how in the world we would get above freezing if all of those factors came to pass.  For all practical purposes, we did not.  The high at the almost always warmer than everyone else airport was 33 and that was at 12:39 AM.  The low was 27 at 1:25 pm and we stayed in the upper 20′s for most of the day.  So, its stuff like this that often causes my puzzlement.

Our Adopted "Paintbrush" Fits the Bill

Anyway, I had surmised that we we’d have light snow all day but because it fell over a long period, accumulations would not be an issue and that was correct, though I think most people got more than the trace of snow reported at the airport.  Now, by Wednesday evening, we had some decent light snow bands coming through and the ground became covered in snow and the roads slick in spots.  It was enough for Snow White to go out and cover up our adopted outdoor kitty cat, Paintbrush, though she refrained from using the expensive robe I gave her and instead used fleece blankets.  That has got to be the most pampered stray cat of all time.  He gets all the food he wants, has time to chase birds or the ladies at his leisure and can return to a pampered bed.

Early Sun AM, GFS has freezing line well south and wrap around moisture from Low in New England over Ohio Valley. Doesn't look like the 40's to me.

The outlook continues to be cold.  That little warm up we had last weekend was simply an fluke and the pattern shows no signs of changing.  Over the next couple of days, the thicknesses do increase a bit and we get sunshine.   So, even though after lingering snow flurries or light snow early Thursday the thickness only rises to about 5300 meters, we get some sunshine so that should get us to 34 or 35, if the sun does show up.  So, that call has some merit.   After that though, through the weekend, its hard to draw a conclusion to support temperatures much beyond 40.  I mean….maybe some of the forecasts that I see of 43 or 44 come about, but I don’t get it.  In fact, there is a big fat snow snowstorm that you will hear about because it bombs out going up the east coast, stops off of New York Harbor and then backtracks into New England where it stays put.  Parts of the Northeast should get buried in a couple of feet of snow and David Letterman will probably be talking about weekend snow on Monday night.  I suspect that storm will help drag down cold air for the weekend, perhaps some clouds and maybe even some flurries or weak light snow bands.  So…I don’t get how we get to 40.  After that, there had been indications of a potential event around here…first it was snow then it looked like maybe a severe outbreak in the southern plains, but now some indications are that the big trof in the east persists and we get nothing like that.  I’m guessing that the longer range models are having a conflict between reality and the climate parameters built into the programming.  For that reason, long range modeling will probably be in flux and the data largely unreliable.  Eric…that is your answer.

Car Ahead of Its Time For All Time February 17, 2010

1946 Volkswagen

Volkswagen 1975...not much difference after 31 years

On This Date in History:  Back in the early 1930′s, the world was mired in a global depression.  Europe was still reeling from the effects of the First World War.  Consumer consumption of products was low.  So, in 1933, the United States swore in a new president.  Franklin D. Roosevelt went about trying to revive the American economy.  In Europe, the leader of a nation went to a young automobile engineer with a proposal that was in the form of a demand.  Ferdinand Porsche had developed a reputation as an outstanding designer during his tenure at Daimler-Benz and Auto-Union and had developed his own consulting business.  He was asked to come up with a small car that seated four people, had a durable air-cooled engine that got 4o miles per gallon and was priced at less than $250 (1000 German Marks).   The leader of Germany even had a name for the yet-to-be-created car:  The Volkswagen which means “people’s car.”

What was mistaken (by me) as a 1944 Volkswagen Wartime Staff Car Variation Is Really A Mercedez Benz 170 Da OTP(Open Touring Police) as per it's owner, Richard.

Of course, the leader was Adolph Hitler and a few months later, he ordered 3 prototypes to be built and also more or less ordered the nation’s manufacturers to supply the parts.  Porsche was in a fix.  The engineering was not the problem but instead it was the economics.  The man who perfected the mass production of automobiles, Henry Ford, turned out cars at a low cost but even his cars ran about $800.  It was a daunting task to undercut Henry Ford by over 2/3 and still produce a quality car.  Given that the request came from the German Chancellor who was gathering unrivaled political power through both legal and violent means, the pressure must have been enormous.   But, old Ferdinand had a secret.  See, Hitler demanded delivery of the prototypes in just 10 months but Porsche was ahead of the game.   The year before he had designed a rear engine, air-cooled small car on his own.   But, there was the issue of the cost.  So, it was back to the drawing board.

VW Kubelwagen 1944-Germany's Answer to the Jeep

But Porsche had other interests as he split time with his efforts to help German racing teams and he was more interested in that than in living up to Hitler’s public announcements that soon there would be an affordable car for all Germans.  And the German Automobile Manufacturers Society wasn’t exactly racing to provide materials because they knew all they were doing was helping create a new competitor in the market.  Porsche though was still pushed so he went to America to take notes on how the Americans mass-produced cars.  He determined that there was no way that the German financial system could support the development of such an endeavor and that the government would have to do it.  As it turns out, before production of the people’s car could get off the ground, Hitler started invading countries all over Europe.  The factory never delivered what has become known as the Beetle.  Instead, the factory was retooled and an stronger, more powerful rear engine  open vehicle was created called the Kubelwagen.  It had similar capabilities of the American Jeep.  It also served as the German Staff Car during the war.  Later, the Kubelwagen variation created by Porsche came back to life as the VW Thing.

1974 VW Thing Looks A Lot Like 1944 Kubelwagen

But, the Thing came about after the Beetle and the Beetle, aka the people’s car, did not come to life until after the end of the Second World War.  The factory fell into the British zone of divided post-war Germany.  The British needed to keep workers busy so, after finding the blueprint of Porsche’s design, the put the factory personnel to work.  By 1948, the British put BMW designer Dr. Ing. Heinz Nordhoff in charge of Volkswagen.  Nordoff remained at the helm when the plant was turned over to the new West German government and by 1955, Beetle number 1,000,000 rolled off the assembly line as the first European car to ever achieve such a production level.  But, they weren’t done.  Americans stationed overseas had first brought the Beetle to the states as a second car.  But, quickly, the car that was dwarfed by the mammoth cars put out by Detroit fulfilled Hitler’s promise to the American people.  While it was slow and quite small, the Volkswagen was very durable, required little maintainance, was very miserly with gas compared to American gas guzzlers and was generally affordable for people who otherwise could not afford cars. 

Porsche: The Real Genius Behind the Beetle

Henry Ford with his Model T had acheived that objective before the Beetle, before Hitler and before anyone else.  But, by the 1950′s Detroit kinda moved away from that business model and the Beetle fit that nitch market quite nicely.  And it continued to do so.  On this date in 1972, Volkswagen put out Beetle number 15,007,034 rolled off the assembly line to surpass Ford’s Model T for the most produced car in all of history.  While Volkswagen became the name of the company instead of the car, and the original Beetle model was eventually discontinued in the United State and replaced by a new, more expensive Beetle with more of the luxuries that Americans demand, the old model Beetle remains in production in Mexico.   Seems that every time I’ve been in Mexico, the cab I rode in was either a Beetle or a Thing…both relics of World War II.  Most people though think that Hitler came up with the Beetle and he didn’t;  it was Ferdinand Porsche.  And what became known as the Beetle wasn’t even offered to the public until after the war.  I think the story of the People’s Car is a good metaphor for Hitler in some regards because he falsely took credit for someone else’s genius and he then made a promise to the people that he never kept.

NWS snowfall depiction through Tue Feb 15 2010

Weather Bottom Line: I don’t have much to add today except that I had about 4.5 inches of snow at my house and the National Weather Service had an official total for the event through early Tuesday of just around 4 inches with the weather service office closer to 5 inches or so.   Yet, the newspaper trumpted in it’s headlines Tuesday morning “6 Inches and Counting.”  It reminds of of the flood in parts of the city in early August when the paper quoted all of these rain totals that were based on rumor and not fact as no measuring device could come close to verifying what city officials and the paper claimed.  But, to be sure, some folks got a little more than 5-6 inches of snow and some got less.  From driving around it seems like Jefferson County got 4-5 inches in general with the 6-8 inch totals falling north of the river or northeast of Louisville.  The NWS made a very general map seen above.  A few flurries on Wednesday and it stays cold.  The next system seems to be falling behind with the models and there is a better than fair chance that we warm up a little and get rain for the second half of the weekend before a little snow on the tail end for Monday.  But, there is no consensus with this solution except that the GFS is starting to show some consistency. We’ll have to see how it shakes out over the next few days but I strongly suspect its more of a rain event than snow.

US Economy Was Salvaged By One Man February 5, 2010

JP Morgan Bailed Out Uncle Sam in 1895

Gold Used To Back US Currency-Now Backing if the Full Faith and Credit of the United States

On This Date in History:  Once upon a time, most currencies were based on the gold standard.  The US operated on the gold standard until 1971 when President Nixon took the nation off the gold standard.  Since then, the US and most other nations operate under the fiat money system.  Basically, the gold standard calls for a particular currency to be backed by an equal amount of gold pegged at a standard price set by a particular government.  Under a fiat system, a currency is not really supported by any commodity at all but instead the value is established through supply and demand market forces as well as the full faith and credit of the issuing entity.   One of the problems with a fiat system is that, since it is not based on any commodity, governments can simply print money to inject into the currency supply and that can lead to inflation because it is often an aritificial increase in supply versus the market based demand.  That is a concern involved in today’s financial and ecnomic crisis around the world.

1893 Panic Led to Near Collapse of US Treasury in 1895

But, at the end of the 19th century, the US was still on the gold standard and the underlying commodity backing the US currency was the concern.  There was a severe economic depression beginning with the Panic of 1893.  The economy became stifled and large financial institutions were fearful that there would be a devaluation in paper money.  So, they began trading in their greenbacks for gold.   By January 1895, gold reserves in the United States were flowing out at a rate of $3 million a day.  That led to a fear that the public would lose confidence in the dollar and the paper money would be worthless.  So,  the solution would be to replentish the gold supply.  It wasn’t really practical for the government to quickly go to public lands and start mining for gold so they needed to find another solution.  President Grover Cleveland looked into the political crystal ball and decided it was best to push Congress to act with a bill that would authorize a sale of bonds.  In other words, the president thought that governmental borrowing was the answer.  Sound familiar?   The money borrowed would then used to buy gold.  Now, the financial expert of the day was not the President of the United States but instead was John Pierpont Morgan and he wasn’t so sure that publically announcing that the government was going to borrow money  for the purpose of replentishing the gold supply in the treasury was a great idea .  He reasoned that an announcement of such a bond sale would signal that the treasury was weak and only intensify the rush to cash in dollars for gold.  In other words, the government solution would make a bad situation worse.

Grover Cleveland's Great Idea Might Have Led to Disaster

So, J.P. Morgan decided to meet with President Cleveland to try and show him the error of his ways even though Cleveland continued to be convinced that his plan was the way to go to save the nation’s financial system.   While in that meeting, the president and Morgan learned at noon on this date in 1895 that the New York subtreasury only had $9 million of gold left and Morgan knew of at least one man who could present a draft for $10 million in gold that day that would send the system into collapse.  So, Morgan used the opportunity to present the president with a better idea.  For some reason, no one else knew of a law that was already on the books, thus making any announcement of governmental borrowing necessary.  But information is a key ingredient to success so it is not really surprising that J.P. Morgan knew of a Civil War era law that allowed the US Treasury to acquire gold coins directly through the issuance of bonds.  In essence, it was still governmental borrowing to buy bonds but the law would allow Cleveland to buy his gold the way he wanted but to do so privately and not with an act of Congress that might panic the public.   But, surely the saavy financial institutions would know what was going on and what was to keep them from going ahead and cashing in their greenbacks for the same gold that Uncle Sam would acquire.  Enter the power of persuasion of John Pierpont Morgan. 

JP Morgan Knew How To Take Charge...And The President Needed Him to Take Charge

It is rather amazing but in order for this scheme to work, President Cleveland needed one man, J.P. Morgan to assume control of the entire international financial community in order to maintain support of American paper currency.  Morgan had to convince large financial institutions to stop converting their currency to gold.  Perhaps no one else in American history could do what Morgan could do; Morgan promised that there would be no further drain from the financial community.  The bond gold currency exchange took place and no further drain of gold from the treasury took place due almost entirely to Morgan’s power of persuasion.  Now, at this point, it may be common to think that Morgan must have had a dog in this fight; he had to profit from this.  He did in the sense that the system that had made him wealthy and powerful was saved but as to the transaction and the effort, Morgan’s company made less than a one percent profit.   This little story tells us a few things.  One is that the US has been in severe crisis situations many times in the past.  This 2009 fiasco was not the first  time that we have been “on the brink.”  Another is that government alone is rarely the solution; it usually takes cooperation between public and private policy and action to solve a complex problem.  

University of Chicago Founded by John D. Rockefeller

Now, J.P. Morgan bailed out the US government on many occasions and he is often labled as one of the “robber barons.”  But, while these men of great wealth did have tremendous power on a large scale, they used their power for the general good of the public.  John D. Rockefeller argued that a monopoly was the most efficient way to bring products to the public at the lowest price.  You know what? He’s right and he generally did that, though he did run competitors into financial ruin to gain that monopoly.  But, the trouble is that it is impossible to expect everyone who is in charge of a monopoly, including any government, to actually deliver products to the public at the lowest rate. Rockefeller is often demonized for his fortune that pushed toward $1 billion in 1912 yet, he established education systems in the South specifically to bring education to minorities, though this researcher trys to denegrate his Calvinist intention to aid Blacks with ulterior motives.  Even if he’s right about the motives, the fact remains that Rockefeller was instrumental in helping to bring equality of education to America.   He established the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research, the University of Chicago and provided so much philanthropic funding that when he died, his worth had dwindled to about $26 million.  He gave most it away and his son used his inhertitance to revive Colonial Williamsburg.  

Andrew Carnegie's Legacy Lives in Today's Libraries

Then there is Andrew Carnegie who has a tremendous rags to riches story and he left a legacy of the free public library system across the United States and other parts of the world when he donated over $56 million for that cause.  He believed that his gift of attaining wealth should be used for the benefit of all.  But, early 20th century labor issues were often tumultuous and Andrew Carnegie is associated by many for the brutal response to the Homestead Strike.  I suppose that the point I am trying to make is that wealthy people aren’t necessarily bad simply due to their wealth.  They do good for society, if nothing else, they provide incomes and opportunity to people. Same is true of corporations.  And historically, it is been shown repeatedly that cooperation between the public and private sector most often provides the best solutions to problems that face the nation and society as a whole…but we tend to forget that. Perhaps a few more “robber barons” today may be a better alternative to many who currently call  Wall Street home.

NAM Fri 18Z seems content with 2 inches of snow

GFS Fri 18Z Likes 3 Inches of Snow

Weather Bottom Line:  Okay, it’s here.  Rain all day then turning to snow overnight.  Daytime temps mainly in the upper 30′s will be the rule and as the upper low swings around, the air column will chill down from above and so there will be no risk of icing except on roadways and I think that is somewhat of a concern.  The wet roads will probably still be wet when we eventually get to freezing and since there was no opportunity to treat the roads, Saturday morning drive will be problematic areawide.  I’m still thinking something like 2 inches of snow with areas north of the river with higher amounts.  I still think that afternoon temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 20s for most people. 

The next system for Tuesday still looks interesting but there are so many potential solutions that I don’t want to deal with it right now.   There are some machines claiming a fair amount of rain, others call for a huge amount of snow while others have a some of both with  a popular idea being snow, rain, snow.  I don’t like that last solution because I don’t want it.  It does appear though that it will be more of a Tuesday/Wednesday event and not Monday.  We’ll look at it closer when there is something more concrete to deal with.  I wouldn’t totally pooh pooh the risk of decent snow just yet but the trend in the models has been for a track of the storm to not support the giant event that one bucket of bolts still is looking for.

Study: Friday 13th Costs Business near $1 Billion; Could 3 2009 Friday 13ths Be Root of Poor Economy? November 13, 2009

Bad Luck: Horse or Driver?

Be Afraid For the Third Time This Year! Because there are 7 days in a week, there is at least one Friday the 13th each year. Sometimes there are two and occasionally, there are three. This year must be unlucky because there have been three after today is over. It looks like to me, though I haven’t researched it fully, that whenever there are three it often happens in February, March and November, but not always. The next time the trio of malaise shows up will be in 2012, then 2015 and then again in 2026.

According to the founder of the Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute, “It’s beenestimated that $800 or $900 is lost in business on this day because people will not fly or do business they would normally do. ” Some people are apparently so fearful that they won’t even get out of bed. I guess it’s Friday 13th for me every day because I never want to get out of bed. People won’t buy a house or even buy stocks. They claim that Friday 13th phobia affects some 20 million Americans. They’ll probably get a bailout from the “stimulus bill.” How do you know if you have the phobia? Symptoms are described as ranging from mild panic attacks to huge panic attacks that render the victim pretty useless to the point that they don’t go to work. If I had a job, I wonder if that would qualify as an excused sick day from work. An English psychologist interviewed about 2100 people in 2003 and found that about one fourth associated the number 13 with bad luck. Apparently, people who think of themselves as unlucky are most likely to believe in superstitions.

Deceptive Loki

Apparently, this obsession with the number 13 goes back a ways, as most of these type of things seem to do. This one is blamed on the Norseman that involves a story of 12 gods having a party at Valhalla. Presumably they aren’t talking about the golf course in Louisville. In walked an uninvited guest…a party crasher named Loki. Loki went and got Hoder, the blind god of darkness to fire a mistletow dipped arrow at Balder the Beautiful, the joy and gladness god. I suppose that mistletoe isn’t too good for you because Balder died. With the god of joy and gladness gone, the earth turned dark. Everyone was sad and it has been associated as a bad, unlucky day ever since.

They also try to drag Christianity into it by pointing out that Judas was the 13th person to show up at the Last Supper and then was the one who betrayed Jesus of Nazareth. If that’s not enough, then there is the Roman story of how 12 witches who routinely would gather together with the 13th who showed up being considered the devil.

A mathematician blames it all on the number 13 suffering the fate of following 12. This guy says that numerologists consider 12 a complete number as there are 12 months in a year, 12 gods of Olympus, 12 tribes of Israel, 12 apostles of Jesus and 12 signs of the zodiac. If you exceed 12 by one, then you get a little beyond completeness and “the number becomes restless and squirmy, which suggests that numbers are alive. This fear of the number 13 has worked its way into modern culture as the claim is that 80% of all high rises lack a 13th floor.

Was I Cursed on 13th Floor at Jester Hall?

What does that mean for me? I lived on the 13th floor of Jester Hall at the University of Texas. I was a cursed freshman and didn’t know it.

Many airports apparently do not have a gate 13, Hospitals and hotels often do not have a room 13, in Florence, Italy houses between 12 and 14 get an address of 12 and a half instead of 13. French socialites are known as quatorziens or fourteeners so as to make sure they have 14 dinner guests. Wonder what happens if someone gets sick? Do they cancel the party?

Apollo 13 Doomed by 13?

Want proof of the evils of the number 13? Why just look at Apollo 13, the ill fated trip to the moon. It departed on April 11, 1970 at 1:13 pm Houston time. Never mind they launched on east coast time. Anyway, 1:13 pm is 13:13 in 24 hour clock time. April 11, 1970 can also be written as 4/11/70. Four plus One plus One plus Seven plus Zero equals 13. Or you can say 4+11+70 + 85 and 8+5 =13. Their last television broadcast was on April 13. They entered the moon’s gravitational field on April 13 and were scheduled to land on the moon on April 13. The failure of the number 2 oxygen tank occurred on Apirl 13th at 3:08:53.555 UTC which in the eastern time zone would be 9:08:53:555. 9+8+53+555=625 and 6+2+5 =13. If the explosion that caused the damage had occured on earth, it was supposedly estimated to cost $13 million to repair the damage. Seems like someone had a lot of time on their hands.

Gristle Can Cure What Ails You

Now, Friday seems to get suckered into this by going back to Christianity and pointing out that Jesus died on a Friday. What they fail to mention is that Christians ironically call this “Good Friday.” Supposedly, some biblical scholars claim that Cain killed Able on Friday the 13th and that Adam was tempted by Eve on a Friday. How they can know this is beyond me.

If you find yourself believing in all of this and have a fear of Friday 13th, then you should consider yourself a

Burn'em if you Got'em

triskaidekaphobe. But, there is hope for you. Modern psychology says that all you need to do is focus your mind on pleasant thoughts. You haven’t lost your mind, you’ve just lost control of your mind. You should realize that you have the ability to create your own luck and its up to you to decide if that is good or bad.

I don’t like those ideas. Since most of this is folklore, I like the old remedies. One is to climb a mountain or the top of a skyscraper…kinda like King Kong. Once you get there, burn all of the socks you own that have holes in them. What if you don’t have any holey socks. Then you can stand on your head and eat a piece of gristle. If you can’t stand on your head, don’t know what gristle is and don’t have holes in your socks, then I guess you’re just out of luck.