1st Terrorist Threat Against USA By Islamic Extremists April 27, 2009

Happy Birthday Universe?

On This Date In History: It was on this date in 4977 BC that the Universe was created according to German mathematician and astronomer Johannes Kepler.  In the early 17th century, Kepler made this calculation and claim.  Kepler is and was a noted and important figure in the development of the science of astronomy and physics.  But, he was just a bit off.  Today, the estimate for the age of the Universe is thought to be slightly different…like 13.7 billion years different.  Remember that next time you hear some scientists who come up with absolutes.

Jefferson Didn't Declare War, He Simply Ordered An Attack On Muslim Dominated Nations...Sound Familiar?

Ever heard of the Barbary Pirates?  They were from the Muslim states of Morocco, Algeria, Tunis, and Tripolitania on the Mediterranean.  In other words, on the other side of the Atlantic.  In the early 19th century, these guys would seize American merchant ships and then ransom their cargo and crew to the US.  President Jefferson got tired of paying ransoms and so he took action.  Interestingly though, the much thought of Constitutionally-minded Jefferson did not ask for a declaration of war.  Instead, as Commander in Chief,  he simply sent the Navy and Marines to invade. 

Barbary Coast 1st Base For Terrorists?

The war with the Barbary Pirates went on for about 4 years.  In 1804, with the war still going on, the US Senate had a drunken partyto simply show support for the undeclared war.  Today, they protest.  Anyway, the Americans and some mercenaries, following a 500 mile trek from Egypt, on this date in 1805 attacked Tripolitania and “deposed” the ruler and installed his brother, who was more sympathetic to American interests.  This is where the verse of “to the shores of Tripoli” in the Marine Hymn comes from. 

This paved the way for the end of the first Barbary Pirates War in June 1805.  Many scholars point to the threat from the Islamic extremists in the 18th and early 19th centuries as the first terrorist threat to the United States. And to think, people today think America has never had a Congressionally funded, undeclared war against a Muslim state half way around the world with the purpose regime change before.  And it was Jefferson’s fault!

Happy 47th Birthday Don Dumas, wherever you are.

Weather Bottom Line:  The story remains the same.  Upper 80′s again on Monday.  Tuesday rain chances increase with a few t’storms.  There may be some gusty winds but severe limits will probably not be breached.  The front that comes through on Tuesday will get hung up to our south and then migrate slowly back our way until a cold front sweeps through late Friday, hopefully to clear things out for Derby Day.  I’m not really changing my thinking much and I’m lazy so for more details, look at yesterday’s entry.

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War Not Over So Senate Stages Drunken Bash March 26, 2009

Ladies Who Weren't Invited To the 1804 Senate Bash

 

This Date In History

Bigger Than This Loaf of Bread?

In 1801, Charles Wilson Peale unearthed a previously un-named prehistoric skeleton. It became known as a Mastadon but, at the time, it got the nickname Mammoth for its size. So, the term mammoth became popular in early 19th century America to describe something very large. In 1802, President Thomas Jefferson received a “mammoth” 1200 pound hunk of cheese from a bunch of Baptist from Massachusettes in appreciation for his advocation of religious tolerance. Remember, the Baptists weren’t always welcome in many corners of early American society, but they had been an effective thorn in the side of the Brits in Colonial America, particularly in places like Williamsburg.

Modern Day Tipsy Senator?

In any event, on this date in 1804, Jefferson attended a public party in the Senate that featured a “mammoth loaf” of bread. The big ole loaf of bread was baked to go along with what was left of the two year old cheese….and a giant portion of roast beef….and an ample supply of alcohol. The occasion was to show support for Jefferson’s use of the US Navy to go after the Barbary Pirates. The Barbary Coast was an area of Northern Africa which was supposed to be part of the Ottoman Empire but was really controlled by local powers in Tunis, Algiers and Tripoli. It was a region controlled by Islamists. They had been impairing US commerce so Jefferson sent the US Navy to enforce and, if need be attack, the bad guys. Numerous battles ensued. One note of interest….this military action of the United States against these Islamic states was funded by Congress, but was an undeclared military action by the United States that lasted

Reuben James Puts His Head on the Line to Save Decatur

for some 4 years. Those who think the Iraq war or the current conflict in Afghanistan, or Vietnam or Korea  were unprecedented need to look more at Thomas Jefferson’s presidency. There are differences but the similiarities are worth noting, especially when one looks at Iraq.  Oh yes..its also worth noting that written observations say that the event with the “mammoth loaf” and the leftover “mammoth cheese” turned into a drunken, noisy affair…something some folks might say has been going on in the Senate ever since.  President Jefferson walked up, pulled out his pockeknife and sliced the first piece of bread and the party was on.  The booze was flowing.  The war wasn’t over but the party went on anyway. 

Now, there had been a big victory on February 16, 1804 in which a daring plan was undertaken when the Americans went into Tripoli Harbor and stealthily boarded the captured American Frigate Philadelphia.  The 74 volunteers were led by Lt. Stephen Decatur.  The group was successful in torching the Philadelphia but not without a fight.  During the hand-to-hand fighting, Botswain’s Mate Reuben James was seriously wounded but still managed to get himself in between and enemy combatant with a very large sword and the group’s commander, Decatur.  James literally put

World War II Destroyer Reuben James

Frigate USS Reuben James

his life on the line to save the commander.  James eventually recovered from his injuries and served in the Navy for more than an additional 3 decades.  That is why there is a frigate currently in the US Navy called the USS Reuben James (FF 57).  His story is one in US Navy lore to exemplify the heroic tradition of the service.  And the action taken by Decatur and his entrourage was called “the most daring act of the age” by British Admiral Lord Nelson.  So, it was a pretty big deal and its the only reason I can think of to justify such a bash by the Senate…that is of course unless one wants to discount the possibility that the Senators just wanted an excuse to party down.  Because, it certainly wasn’t because of the war…it wasn’t over for another year and really wasn’t completely settled until 1815.

SPC Convective Outlook Fri 8AM to Sat 8AM

SPC Convective Outlook Sat 8AM to Sun 8AM

Weather Bottom Line: 

I’m tempted to break out Colonel Klink but its too early to be offering any “I told you so” comments, especially since its a shade off on timing.  But, the above depiction is the SPC Convective Outlook for Friday March 27 to Saturday March 28.  Notice how far north they have taken the severe risk area…all the way to Louisville.  Now, the reason it doesn’t encompass Loiusville is due to timing.  The next day the region is to our east.  Hence, when the storms may come over us, it will be well into the night and so the timing issue arises.  But, we still will have a risk of t’storms either late Friday or, if the system slows a bit, then a better chance on Saturday.  Having said all of that….I would plan on rain on Friday night with possible storms and also look for rain with storms on Saturday and the data seems to support pretty good looking activity through Saturday afternoon.  I would not be surprised to see the SPC make a further revision in their slight risk area.  Just something to keep in mind.  Otherwise, Thursday looks damp the first part of the day and somewhat coolish in the low to mid 60′s.  Friday should be decent with highs in the mid to upper 60′s.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
  
   VALID 271200Z – 281200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD INTO TN VALLEY
   AND CNTRL GULF STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   A SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD.
   THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND
   INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE HIGH-LEVELS…BETWEEN CYCLONICLY
   CURVED POLAR JET STREAK AND SUBTROPICAL JET SITUATED ALONG THE GULF
   COAST.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH OK/TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
   THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
   IN THE LOW LEVELS…LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
   TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS BEING THE
   MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPEST SOLUTION.  BOTH MODELS HAVE INDICATED
   FAIRLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOLLOWED
   FOR THE SURFACE PATTERN.  AS SUCH…IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
   LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM N-CNTRL TX ENEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX BEFORE
   MOVING MORE NNEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS.
   TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WHILE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
   TOWARD THE OH RIVER.
  
   …ERN TX EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES…
  
   …POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FRI AND FRI
   NIGHT…
  
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A RATHER BROAD WARM SECTOR
   WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND
   70 ALONG THE COAST.  THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES…RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
   AFTERNOON.
  
   TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FRI MORNING BOTH WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND N OF
   WARM FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT AS A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
   OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ALONG
   COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY.
  
   UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
   MODE…DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY…AND WHETHER ANY WEAKER
   IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH…POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING
   THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT.  HOWEVER…SHOULD A WARM
   SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 25/00Z GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOP /I.E.
   MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/…THE
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT FRI AND FRI
   NIGHT. 
  
   A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE
   ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.  HOWEVER…SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE
   REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS…AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE
   RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
  
   ..MEAD.. 03/25/2009

Who Cut The Cheese and Whose Baby Is It? January 1, 2009

Was Thomas Jefferson A Cheesehead?

 

On This Date in History:

In 1801, Charles Wilson Peale unearthed a previously un-named prehistoric skeleton. It became known as a Mastadon but, at the time, it got the nickname Mammoth for its size. So, the term mammoth became popular in early 19th century America to describe something very large.

On this date in 1802, President Thomas Jefferson received a “mammoth” hunk of cheese from a bunch of Baptist

Monument To John Leland's Cheshire Cheese

from Massachusetts in appreciation for his advocation of religious tolerance. Remember, the Baptists weren’t always welcome in many corners of early American society, but they had been an effective thorn in the side of the Brits in Colonial America, particularly in places like Williamsburg.  Now, the farmers in Massachusetts were rather poor so the Baptist minister John Leland got creative with his gift ideas.  Sorta like you might do around Christmas if you find yourself unemployed.  Over the summer, the Baptist congregation in Cheshire, Massachusetts milked 900 cows at one time and then processed the milk in a cider press.  Jefferson said that the cows must have all been Republican.     The result was a 1235 pound round of cheese that was 4 feet in diameter and 15 inches thick.  When it arrived at the White House on New Year’s Day 1802 on a cart pulled by six horses, it came with a sign that said, “The greatest cheese in America for the greatest man in America.”   Jefferson knew the farmers were poor so, instead of just accepting the cheese, he gave them $200 in exchange for the gift.

Re-enactment of 1804 Senate Party?

The cheese lasted a long time and was used on March 26, 1804 when Jefferson attended a public party in the Senate that featured a “mammoth loaf” of bread. The big ole loaf of bread was baked to go along with what was left of the two year old cheese….and a giant portion of roast beef….and an ample supply of alcohol. The occasion was to show support for Jefferson’s use of the US Navy to go after the Barbary Pirates. The Barbary Coast was an area of Northern Africa which was supposed to be part of the Ottoman Empire but was really controlled by local powers in Tunis, Algiers and Tripoli. It was a region controlled by Islamists. They had been impairing US commerce so Jefferson sent the US Navy to enforce and, if need be attack, the bad guys. Numerous battles ensued against those dubbed the Barbary Pirates.

One note of interest….this military action of the United States against these Islamic states was funded by Congress, but was an undeclared military action by the United States that lasted for some 4 years. Those who think the Iraq situation is unprecedented need to look more at Thomas Jefferson’s presidency. There are differences but the similiarities are worth noting….oh yes..its also worth noting that written observations say that the event with the “mammoth loaf” and the leftover “mammoth cheese” turned into a drunken, noisy affair…something some folks might say has been going on in the Senate ever since.  But even the “mammoth party” was not enough to use up all of the Baptist cheese.  It is said the efforts from the 900 cows lasted into 1805.

A New Queen For Canada?   So, on New Year’s Eve Day, there’s a flight from Holland to America.  It arrived with one more passenger than it left with as a woman had a baby girl in flight.  Since the baby was born over Canadian airspace, it is now a Canadian citizen.  Wouldn’t it be great if she became Prime Minister of Canada someday simply because she arrived into the world while flying the friendly skies?  Here’s the story with video.

Weather Bottom Line:  It got pretty cold on New Year’s Eve with temperatures falling into the teens.  The dewpoints were also pretty low.  Consequently, as a little front comes through early Friday morning, there really isn’t going to be much moisture available so there will be clouds and that’s about it.  Okay…maybe a flurry or two but nothing worth getting worked up over.  We warm up for the weekend into the 40′s and 50′s with rain on Sunday.  Now, our snow scenario for midweek is a bit up in the air.  Recently, the models seem to want to come into agreement with the low tracking farther to our southeast so there isn’t much precip with it around here.  Two things to note…there are still several days to go before we get a clear picture of how this guy rounds the bend out of Texas.  If it cuts a bit sharper of a turn then it still may track closer to us.  The other thing is that I spied a GFS solution on Wednesday night that wants to take the low into Virginia but  then form a second low over us.  That would create a snow situation…not sure how plausible that is but I suppose that its possible given that the parent low would probably be on its last legs and a new low would form somewhere to the east or northeast.  We’ll have to wait and see.  Either way, the milder air for the weekend won’t last.  If it’s going to be cold..I want snow.  I figure that if we stay cold long enough, sooner or later we’ll get our chance.  It’s just not clear right now if next week is that chance.

Islamist’s Terrorism Aids Presidential Candidate May 18, 2008

I told you that the weather for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico would be good.  And they did get the track in good shape after Friday’s rain.  I just  talked to a guy who got the Exacta….he claims it paid $36.  Pretty good deal. Hope you did as well.  Be sure to check in for the Belmont as I’ll be posting the weather for that too.

Around here we’re still trying to bring a ridge our way to warm things up.  It would appear it will happen toward Memorial Day weekend though the timing is a bit up in the air.  The models are not and have not been overly conclusive.  We may see some light showers overnight and early Sunday.  Late in the day we have a tad bit of energy swinging down into the northern part of the Ohio Valley that may help kick off a few showers and perhaps overnight.  Monday is a better chance as another upper low scoots down with the flow from Iowa through Illinois and our doorstep late Monday into Monday night.

An Islamist Helped The Re-Election of President Theodore Roosevelt on This Date in History in 1904 when he kidnapped a wealthy American, Ion Perdicaris, in Morocco.  Mubu Ahmed er Raisuli was considered to be a Barbary Pirate who was unhappy with the sultan of Morocco for allowing the French to have great sway and influence in the country as long as they gave him toys.  Sultan Abul Aziz got bicycles, 25 grand pianos, over 600 cameras and even a gold car even though Morocco had no roads.  Well, Raisuli had enough so he decided to act.  Not in the violent way that seemed more prevalent in the early 20th Century in general and has been pervasive in Islamic politics for generations. No…he decided to follow a script that could have been written in Hollywood.

By kidnapping Perdicaris and ransoming him to the Moroccan government, he hoped to involve the United States and bring great shame in disrepute to the government which would lead to it’s demise.  His plan worked.  He got the attention than none other than the old Rough Rider himself, Teddy Roosevelt, whose re-election campaign was in need of a boost.  Roosevelt seized the opportunity and sent a negotiator even though Raisuli had a reputation for sending messengers back with their throats slit or even just sending back their heads.  In this case, Raisuli didn’t provoke Roosevelt that directly but he was being difficult.  He finally agreed to release the tycoon for $70,000 then he changed his mind.  That provoked TR.

He sent a telegram to the envoy instructing that told him to proceed cautiously and had numeorus other items.  But, it also included the phrase, “the government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead.”  In typical Roosevelt fashion, TR sent a bunch of battleships to the coast of Morroco.  The Republican convention had unanimously re-nominated President Roosevelt but the atmosphere was dull and listless until….they read the one “bully” phrase from the telegram to the negotiator.  When the conventioneers heard that TR wanted the prisoner back alive or the captor dead, wild cheers and applause errupted on the convention floor and the campaign was off and running.  It turns out it was all for naught because by the time the telegram reached Raisuli he had already changed his mind again, accepted the money and released Perdicaris.  Of course the perception of the public was that it was Teddy’s dead or alive demand that caused the release.  The campaign never did  anything to change that perception nor did it point out that the United States had given in to every one of the pirate’s demands.

They also didn’t tell the electorate that it had been found out that Perdicaris wasn’t even an American citizen.  The administration had found out that during the Civil War, Perdicaris had renounced his US citizenship and become a Greek citizen so that when he refused his draft call into the Confederacy, his land holdings would not be confiscated.  The fact that the captive was not an American was not known to the public for 40 years, well after Roosevelt’s death.    I don’t think anyone shouted out “Teddy lied!”

This Hollywood script worked better than Raisuli bargained for. He got $70,000 but he made the sultan look so incompetent that the sultan’s brother overthrew the government and the new administration clamped down on the pirate Raisuli.  The French were so angered by the whole thing that they exerted even greater influence.  Perhaps there is a reason why those who wish to topple a government don’t follow a drama line…

But Hollywood liked the script and in 1975 produced The Wind and the Lion that was based on the incident.  But, producers being as it is…they made some changes.  Instead of a wealthy expatriated American man getting kidnapped, the lovely Candice Bergen was held by her captive…Sean Connery…who just a few years later was named the Sexiest Man Alive!!!  

Does the picture above look like Sean Connery to you?

Here’s a link to more details if you like:

Teddy’s Big Stick

Cool Start to Next Week; In Undeclared War, US Invades Muslim Nation and Topples Regime;Universe Created April 27, 2008

Forecast pretty much on track.  Look for clouds to increase on Sunday but all in all, not too bad.  Showers may pop up late in the day but more likely the threat for general rain will be in the evening and overnight.  Showers show up on Monday and the first two days of the week will be chillier than normal.  The bulk of the Derby Festival events though will be warm.  There is a system approaching Friday and at this point, we’re going with the idea that it comes through between Oaks and Derby at night.  But, if it comes through earlier, which some data suggests, then Friday afternoon could be problematic.

On This Date In History: It was on this date in 4977 BC that the Universe was created according to German mathematician and astronomer Johannes Kepler.  In the early 17th century, Kepler made this calculation and claim.  Kepler is and was a noted and important figure in the development of the science of astronomy and physics.  But, he was just a bit off.  Today, the estimate for the age of the Universe is thought to be slightly different…like 13.7 billion years different.  Remember that next time you hear some scientists who come up with absolutes.

Ever heard of the Barbary Pirates?  They were from the Muslim states of Morocco, Algeria, Tunis, and Tripolitania on the Mediterranean.  In other words, on the other side of the Atlantic.  In the early 19th century, these guys would seize American merchant ships and then ransom their cargo and crew to the US.  President Jefferson got tired of paying ransoms and so he took action.  Interestingly though, the much thought of Constitutionally-minded Jefferson did not ask for a declaration of war.  Instead, as Commander in Chief,  he simply sent the Navy and Marines to invade.  The Americans and some mercenaries, following a 500 mile trek from Egypt, on this date in 1805 attacked Tripolitania and “deposed” the ruler and installed his brother, who was more sympathetic to American interests.  This is where the verse of “to the shores of Tripoli” in the Marine Hymn comes from.  And to think, people today think America has never had a Congressionally funded, undeclared war against a Muslim state half way around the world with the purpose regime change before.  And it was Jefferson’s fault!