“We Don’t Know” is better than “Global Warming” “Global Cooling” or “They are Wrong” December 18, 2009

This Was Truth in 1975...Is it Today?

“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects.”

With the meeting going on in Copenhagen, one might think that the headline above was from current media.  But, it’s not.  It’s actually a quote from an article in Newsweek from April 28, 1975.  The topic was climate change but at that time, the concern was global cooling.  The concern then was from aerosols being emitted by humans, as this article partly explains.  In 1974, articles began appearing, like this one in the New York Times, that say that climate change could threaten global food production.  Another New York Times article from May 21, 1975 says that the scientific community was concerned about climate change.  It says that many thought that the earth was getting colder and we were heading toward another ice age.  But, in an interesting side note, it also mentioned that some scientists felt like man made pollution would hold  off another ice age.  It then goes on to say that just about everyone agrees that global cooling was inevitable and even cited cooling northern hemispheric temperatures since 1950 that had shortened Britain’s growing season. 

“There seem little doubt that the present period of unusual warmth will eventually give way to a time of colder climate, but there is no consensus with regard to either the magnitude or rapidity of the transition.” 

Again, some might think that is a quote from a recent global warming study that would seem to fit some folk’s world view.  But, it’s not.  This quote if from a January 19, 1975 article in the New York Times.  The Times is quoting a National Academy of Sciences report.  Now, people may jump on the parts of the article that state that says there is the potential for an abrupt end to the warmth of the interglacial period.  But, instead, I would focus attention on another quote from the article which says: “A far greater understanding of these changes is required than we now possess.”  While the article talks about the prospects of possible increasing global temperatures due to man’s activities, it also says that northern hemisphere temperatures rose steadily from the 1880′s to the 1940′s but then fell consistently from the 1940′s to the mid 1970′s.  Huh?  We’ve been led to believe that temperatures have been steadily increasing all through the 20th century. 

The Copenhagen talks have come and gone and nothing much happened.  We are in the middle of a global recession and all of the remedies proposed seem to have one thing in common: Money.  There is the cost of taxes designed to discourage fossil fuel use and encourage the development of “green” technology.  There is some sort of “cap and trade” effort which doesn’t seem to stop carbon emissions but instead shifts money around in a shell game.  And then there was the proposal that rich nations give hundreds of billions of dollars to poor countries.  Some say these proposals are nothing more than a transfer or wealth and no one can tell me who gets the tax money and what it is to be used for.  Also, what assurances are there that the poorer countries that get the money from the rich ones will actually use the funding for what it was intended?  Ask yourself if you believe a third world government that is given hundreds of billions of dollars will do what they are supposed to do with all that money. 

All of this is, of course, framed in the current “climategate” scandal in which thousands of emails from a leading climate institute came to light in which the scientists involved appear to be acknowledging cooking the books to make data fit their hypothesis.  Now, apparently Russian scientists confirm that UK scientists manipulated climate data to fit their opinions.    Some people say that all of this new evidence proves that the whole Global Warming scare is all wrong.  But, that is not necessarily true.  Peter Gwynne, who authored the famous Global Cooling article in the April 28 1975 Newsweek issue says that his story was not wrong in the journalistic sense.  He reported accuratetly what was being reported.  What the difference is that scientists in the 1970′s were looking at the situation with an open mind.  They suspected that man’s activities were altering the climate but were unsure of just how it was happening.  They let the facts lead them to reach conclusions.  NASA explains that they use the term Climate Change instead of Global Warming because the latter term is suggestive of a terminal conclusion instead of merely an alteration of the climate. 

Have global temperatures risen? Yes.  Has the Arctic Ice Cap receded? Yes over 20 years but over the past two years, there has been modest ice growth at the North Pole, but most news articles use verbiage to try and obfuscate that fact.  That is the word…obfuscation instead it should be transparency.  The world should take the view of the scientists in the 1970′s that more understanding was required.  The truth is, we just don’t know for sure what is going on.  We have no idea if the proposals at the Copenhagen Summit would change the environment one bit.  We have no idea what the truth is regarding anthropogenic global warming because so many politicians, political world bodies, people who have a monetary stake in the process and countries who stand to gain politically have gotten involved.  Everyone should step aside.  Former Vice-Presidents should leave their private jets in the hanger and let the grown ups do their work.  The UN should look at the question of whether or not, if anthropogenic global warming is a certainty, if there is anything that can or should be done.  Thomas Friedman raised the question in one of his books if they money used to try and re-alter the earth’s climate could not be better used to fight disease, hunger and poverty. 

Global Cooling? Yeah…everyone just chill out and allow for a transparent, academic process to move forth that leads to a rational, precise conclusion.  The politicians can remain spectators.  The thing that gets overlooked in the January 1975 New York Times article is the subheadline:  “Scientists Warn Predictions Must Be Made Precise to Avoid Catastrophe.”   That holds true today and those at Copenhagen should paste that sub-headline to their foreheads.   So, those who act like facists and call anyone who even raises a question a “global warming denier” and attacks them with closed ears and no answers, pipe down.  For those who run around saying that global warming is a “hoax” recognize that while some methodology may be corrupt, the conclusion may in fact have veracity and the fears well founded.  At the same time, everyone should realize that developing alternative forms of energy is a good thing.  Any time you can create energy in a cleaner, more efficient manner it is nothing but positive provided it can be economically feasible.  If the United States had renewable, home grown energy independence, that would not only potentially be a long term economic benefit, but must certainly an addition to national security. 

NAM Snow Total through 7 AM Monday

Weather Bottom Line:  As for the big snow storm…its not going to be a big snow storm for Louisville.  First off, the ground is not cold enough.  The models are still in great disagreement regarding rain or snow though it will in all liklihood start as rain before turning to snow on Saturday.  The GFS keeps on claiming over 2 inches but much of that falls when the layers just above the surface are above freezing.  The NAM continues to have more rain than snow.  It’s really tough.  Remember, the difference between one and two inches of snow would be .10″ of  liquid .20″ of liquid.  That’s not much wiggle room.  Guess here is that we have rain that washes away the brine solution put on the roads (thus wasting taxpayer money again) and that we get about an inch or so on grassy areas. 

This whole pattern is typical of an El Nino year with a low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and moving up into the Lower 48.  This can be a good pattern for Ohio Vally Snow if a low moves northeast out of SE Texas.  In this case though, it’s a low moving through the base of the trof along the Central Gulf Coast and moving up through Georgia and then exploding off the East Coast as it moves north.  The Appalacian mountains may get as much as two feet of snow.   I know that Apple Hill Farm the llamas and Alpacas are prepared, and Knox will love it…but Chi Chi will no doubt cower in fear.  As the low deepens while moving up the coast the cold front that moves through here on Saturday will catch up and there will be plenty of cold air in the Northeast Corridor to allow for the moisture tossed ashore by the low to create quite a snow storm. 

Now, its tough for moisture to come all the way from the Atlantic, across the mountains and to the Ohio Valley in much amounts.  But, there is expected to be about a half a foot in eastern Kentucky.  The next system that comes out of the Gulf for Christmas Eve has more promise, but its also possible that we get rain and maybe freezing rain.  Could be a mess…could be a White Christmas or could be just wet.  We’ll see. Needless to say, it will not be getting warm anytime soon.

Nuclear Arms Negotiations, Talk of Reduction or Elimination is No Time for Laughing Gas October 16, 2009

 

Has the Time Come or is it a Bad Idea?

 

Tepperman Says Obama Should Learn to Love the Bomb

There is a body of opinion that claims that nuclear weapons actually bring peace as a stablizing force.  Jonathan Tepperman added recently to the list of those who  that present that argument.  After all, since the US dropped atomic bombs on Japan there have been no world wars and in 30 years prior to their use, there had been two that cost at least 60 million lives and did untold economic destruction. But, the trouble with nuclear weapons is that, if they are used, then the consequences are grave. I mean, aside from the destruction brought about by the use of one, the only real reaction a nation could have would be to retaliate with another nuclear weapon and then it could escalate from there. So, President Obama recently went beyond his earlier call for the reduction of nuclear arsenals in Russia and the United States by 80 percent, but also a more ambitious proposal to eliminate nuclear weapons from the earth altogether. Trouble with that is, how do you get everyone to agree, how can you be sure the other guys don;’t have them, what do you do if someone does have them and how wise is it for the United States to give up its “big stick.”

 

 

 

Missile Shield Plan Off The Board But Russia Doesn't Seem to Want to Respond

Now, the US and Russia are in negotiations regarding a new nuclear arms agreement.  The Obama administration already changed course from a Bush-era program that proposed a anti-missile shield based in Eastern Europe.  The Russians saw that as a threat and so said that they would use nuclear weapons if threatened.  The Obama administration recently cancelled the anti-missile shield for Eastern Europe, angering some of the Eastern Europeans and some members of NATO.  It was seen as an olive branch of sorts to the Russians.  Sometimes, the other guy doesn’t go along.  The Russians now say that they will reserve the right to make a pre-emptive nuclear strike if it feels threatened.  Perhaps unilateral decisions will eventually bear fruit, but so far its hard to see how anything has changed with the change from a European based missile shield for the NATO allies and the new proposal, which would be for a ship based system.  If it weren’t for the Iranian nuclear program, the North Korean nuclear program, the trouble in Pakistan and India which are both part of the nuclear club this might make one chuckle as we talk about arms reduction or nuclear weapons bans.  But, the only way one can laugh in this developing situation may be to get a dose of laughing gas…

 

1839 Laughing Gas Party

On This Date in History: In the first half of the 19th Century, performers went around the country

Party Time For the Lady?

performing acts that showed the side effects of nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas.” A Georgia physician, Dr. Crawford Long attended a party in which the foolishness took place and was asked by friends if he could make up a batch for their own private fun. Long suggested the use of ether instead as he found it quite suitable for the desired effects. At that point, all across the Peach State laughter at parties was heard of people chuckling at each others stumbling and bumbling while high on ether. Long’s interest was piqued. He noted how people didn’t feel any pain.

Dr William Morton Died Young

One of the fellow party makers was James Venable who had a tumor. Now, at the time, the pain associated with surgery was totally based on how fast the surgeon could do his work. So, Long convinced Venable to try out the gas before he had his tumor removed. He agreed and on March 30, 1842 the tumor was removed successfully without pain. But, Long did not publish his findings right away as he was not fully convinced. Long’s conservative approach was probably a good idea.

Dentist Horace Wells in Hartford, CT attended a laughing gas show and recognized the potential of nitrous oxide. So, he jumped the gun and took his case to the Massachusetts General Hospital where the demonstration promptly went asunder and Wells was ridiculed as a fraud. That led to Dr. William Morton.

Dr. Morton had worked with Dr. Wells and had learned of the promise of ether’s numbing properties from chemist Dr. Charles Jackson. He tried it out on some patients to much success and he too went to Massachusetts General Hospital. He said he had discovered a new wonder drug. What he really had was the very same ether that Wells had, but he camouflaged it with aromic oils so it would alter the oder. On October 16, 1846 the chief of surgery at Massachusetts General removed a neck tumor and also performed a leg amputation. The surgeries were pain free and the age of anesthetics was here. Morton patented the formula hoping to get rich.

Emory Univ. Hospital Named for Dr. Crawford Long

But, Jackson and his supporters claimed they were the true discoverers. Morton in 1868 went to New York to defend his position against supporters of Jackson. He had a seizure and died. Upon seeing Morton’s tombstone that gave Morton credit for anesthetic, Jackson went insane and spent the rest of his life in an asylum. Then we have the fate of Dr. Wells, who jumped the gun with his demonstration. He became addicted to chloroform and his mind eroded. He ended up in jail and somehow got ahold of chloroform, soaked a clothe in it and covered his face after opening up his arteries. He quietly and painlessly bled to death.

As for perhaps the true pioneer of the use of anesthetics, Dr. Crawford Long? The one who was not bold enough to publish his findings? He continued as a general practitioner until 1878 when he died making a house call. Perhaps his caution and conservative approach was reflective of his life as those who went for the fame and fortune all died in bizarre and untimely manners. I wonder if those 3 would think that it was worth it?

 

Sat Eve. Cold High Pressure Building In

 

 

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you that the weather was gonna be lousy.  Tough to make an argument concerning Global Warming these days.  The clouds, rain and cold air will persist through early Saturday with maybe even some sleet in spots prior to Sunrise Saturday.  The precip will be tapering off but it should remain cloudy on Saturday with highs having a tough time getting to 50.  High pressure builds in Saturday night and chases away the clouds but Sunday morning church could be frosty with many people in the low 30′s if not some upper 20′s in the northern part of the viewing area.   Sunshine Sunday helps us get to the mid 50′s.  The big trof that brought all of the unseasonably cold air to the eastern part of the country will be lifting out and we really ought to have very pleasant conditions through Wednesday with temps climbing Monday afternoon to the low 60′s, then mid 60′s on Tuesday and maybe even to 70 on Wednesday.

Flooding Takes Hundreds of Filipino Lives; US Press May Be Less Ignorant of Oregon Trail October 9, 2009

US Chinook Helicopters Bringing Aid to Disaster in Philippines Despite Silence in US News Media

This is a street in Rosales Township Where this guy found a manhole

While the news outlets covered the world reaction to the Nobel Peace Prize going to President Obama, the media seems almost oblivious to the plight of the Philippines.  The death toll and misery continues to rise in the wake of Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) that loitered around the nation, already reeling from the devastating flooding and nearly 300 deaths wrought by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  Though you may not hear about it on cable tv or the national news in the United States, the Philippines Flooding Photo gallery says it all.  This video of flooding in the Philippines from Parma was posted October 7…yet you heard nothing on the US News networks and very little in the papers. 

Click On Image For Latest Loop

For days, I had been saying that there was a very real possibility of this storm coming back to the Philippines after it went through the first time.  For some reason, there didn’t seem to be as much concern about this than I think there should have been.  Nevertheless, that is what happened and after it crossed just off the east coast and was downgraded to tropical depression, convection started to explode as it moved back to the west and extremely heavy rain fell on waterlogged parts of the northern Philippines.  The result is that officials are saying that flooding in the Pangasinan Province is the worst in 50 years.  Parts of the country are being called  giant rivers.  The death toll for the latest round of mudslides is up to 181 and will probably go higher.  That is on top of the 25 lives that  Typhoon Parma took during its first trip through and in addition to the deaths caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana a week before.  The total deaths in the Philippines from Ketsana and Parma now stands at over 540 and the toll on the economy will be staggering.  The last I saw, the UN had pledged $74 million in aid, or about one quarter of Alex Rodriguez’s contract.  The US is providing aid but its going to take more and will be interesting to see how a budget strapped global economy steps up. 

7 Day Rainfall NASA TRMM

Just yesterday, I had posted a story in which a few people had died from a landslide, including a worker who was out cleaning up from the previous storm.  I couldn’t believe it. I was wondering what they were thinking.  The 7 day Philippines rain total to the left from the NASA TRMM satellite shows how much rain has fallen and they knew that flooding was a very real possibility…yet they ignored the risk as a tropical cyclone remained almost over the  top of them. One spot in the Northern Philippines according to the NASA data reported 106.92mm (4.21″) of rain in the last 24 hrs, 203.37 mm (8.01″) in the past 72 hours and 399.33 mm (15.72″).  That is on top of the nearly two feet they got the week before.   I suspect that they got lulled into a sense of security because Parma had not dropped too much on them as it meandered across the second time and weakened.  But, with an island that small, it doesn’t take much for the center to get close enough to water for the convection to explode. It did and it’s no surprise.  Not saying that they could have done much but, it may have been a good idea to hold off on clean up until the danger had passed.

Parma Forecast Track (Pepeng Track)

Now, I’ve read some stories saying that the storm “may” be moving away from the Philippines.  I suspect that they put this qualifier because the “journalists” were just reading each other pronouncements of certitude based on  bogus speculation.  It was always a real possibility that the storm would come back.  This time, it is almost impossible for this guy to come back. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion)  It is offshore in the South China Sea and is moving west slowly.  The speed will pick up as a ridge of high pressure in China expands and drives the storm toward Vietnam, which will probably experience flooding, though Parma’s regaining intensity will most likely not take it back to Typhoon status, but instead back to a strong tropical storm.  While the environment is favorable for re-generation and Parma has amazingly maintained a good low level circulation, its probably going to hit SE Asia before it gets a chance to get all wound up again.

John Jacob Astor

On This Date in History: I’m sure many people have heard of the Oregon Trail but probably aren’t familiar with where it is except Oregon. In the early 19th Century, Lewis and Clark gained the blessings and financial support (Probably Not Constitutional) of President Jefferson. That paved the way for commerce with John Jacob Astor leading the way in the American fur trade. Again, it was Thomas Jefferson who encouraged Astor, who formed the Pacific Fur Company. Astor sent a man named Wilson Price Hunt to establish a base of operations and in 1811, Hunt followed the trail of Lewis and Clark to the Dakotas and then cut over land through Jackson Hole and eventually to the mouth of the Columbia River. They called the place Fort Astor.

The War of 1812 broke out and the Crown sent a warship to seize the fort. The guys in the fort figured out that they were in trouble so, being good businessmen, they sold the town to their British competitors. The North West Company purchased the fort, renamed it Fort George and the British gained control without firing a shot and presumably John Jacob Astor got some money for his trouble.

Did Ogden Have a Neck?

Just before the Brits took over the fort, a group of men led by Robert Stuart left Fort Astor for St. Louis. That party in 1812 was the first follow the Oregon Trail, though they did it in reverse. About 10 years later, the Northwest Fur Company merged with the Hudson Bay Company and a hellion with the Company named Peter Skene Ogden was used as a inspector of operations in the far west. He got the position probably to keep him out of the offices because in the past, he had tried to incinerate a campanion for fun, nearly beat a company officer to death and led an entire outpost in a mutiny. Ogden ended up knowing more about the west than anyone except for mountain man Jedediah Smith. Ogden’s explorations made its way to cartographers who made maps that paved the way for settlers to emigrate west over the Oregon Trail. I suppose that Ogden Utah got its name from this rough and nasty man of the west.

Ezra Meeker 1906

Ezra Meeker and Friend 1910

So, a bunch of people went west following the Oregon Trail. One was Ezra Meeker who took his family along the trail in 1852 and moved into the Washington Territory. What makes Meeker stand out was in an attempt to keep the history of the trail alive and honor the men who blazed it, Ezra Meeker got an ox and wagon and took the trail again, stopping often to give speeches and promote its importance in history. Meeker at the time was 75 years old. It was a tough trip and the ox died, but not Meeker. So enthused with his efforts, he did it again in 1910. In 1915 he traveled the route by automobile. And on this date in 1924, Ezra Meeker once again followed the trail that he first set out on 72 years earlier. This time he was 93 years old and this time he made the 1300 mile journey like a bird. He traveled by airplane. At age 98, he attempted to travel the trail by car again with the support of Henry Ford, but he died on December 3, 1928.

Recognize This View From Kindergarten Cop?

Fort Astor is today known as Astoria, Oregon and was the setting for the movie Kindergarten Cop. Meeker had his last oxen team slaughtered and mounted by a taxidermist and can be found today on display, still hooked to the wagon, at the Washington State Historical Society Museum in Tacoma. A commemorative coin was struck in the 1920′s and 30′s to commemorate Meeker and the trail. In the 1980′s, a computer game company put out “The Oregon Trail” game and had a default feature that listed Ezra Meeker in 5th place on the all-time scorer list with a score of 2052. Why they picked that score is a mystery to me.

I’ll tell you what…in the dictionary under “obsession” should be a picture of Ezra Meeker.

Weather Bottom Line:  A cold front will come through and leave us with a dry weekend, but it will be a cool weekend.  Look for highs in the upper 50′s and low 60′s with overnight lows in the upper 30′s and low 40′s.  It probably won’t be quite as cool as previous forecasts indicated as it looks like a wave will be coming out of the west which will prevent the cold air from completely spilling into the Ohio Valley and instead will bring another chance for rain early next week as another cold front comes through.  Perhaps the much chillier air will spill down then.  As it is, we will be cooler and fall like, and it looks like there is a pool of exceedingly cold air for the time of year just waiting for a chance to dive into the lower 48.

Is Proposal to Shoot Down Israeli Planes a Sound Nuke Arms Control Policy? September 24, 2009

"Oppie" Knew

When Dr. Robert Oppenheimer witnessed the Trinity test, the first explosion of an atomic weapon, he is quoted as saying, “I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.”  However, that is a bit of a misnomer as the line became part of the public lexicon after a 1965 interview when he was asked about his initial reaction to seeing the test.  He said that he thought of the Hindu scripture the Bhagavad Gita.  So, it was a thought that has now been altered to being his quote.  Anyway,  he later went on to say that  “The atomic bomb made the prospect of future war unendurable. It has led us up those last few steps to the mountain pass; and beyond there is a different country.”

So, Oppenheimer had observed first hand the destructive potential of nuclear weapons.  The world saw the true impact of just a relatively small nuclear weapon at both Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  Oppenheimer, like many others suggest that the nuclear age might make war extinct..that the destruction wrought was not worth any potential gain.  Alfred Nobel thought that his invention of dynamite would make war obsolete.  Wars have certainly gone on after dynamite and there have been many since the first atomic explosion. But, we have not seen any more world wars, of which there have been many with the most horrific in history being World War I and World War II.  Some would argue that nuclear weapons have made such large scale violence obsolete.  Fear of someone going nuclear has always been on the minds of nations and in particular, the Soviet Union and the United States who took on the MAD policy of Mutually Assured Destruction.  If one side used nukes, the other would do the same and everyone would lose.

But, in the 1970′s 1980′s in particular,  a movement to ban nuclear weapons world wide really got going in some circles.  Arms limitations agreements arose that called for the reduction in nuclear weapons on the part of the Soviets and Americans.   But, others had nuclear weapons and now still more nations have them with others trying to get them.  So, with the proliferation of technology and nations desiring to have the ultimate deterrent  for security, how does one really think that the world can be “rid” of nuclear weapons.  Does anyone really think that a terrorist who gets his hands on one would give it up because no one else has them or would he be more likely to use one?  Would India really trust Pakistan, and vice-versa enough to give up their weapons?  If there have been no world wars since the nuclear age, is it really a good idea to go back to a world without the nuclear deterrence…to the time when there were global conflicts, including the two biggest in the first half of the 20th century?

Nuclear Issue No Day at the Beach

Apparently, President Obama’s remarks to the United Nations regarding disarmament and non-proliferation suggest that he thinks its the way to go.  In June of 2009, President Obama warned Iran against developing nuclear weapons, which seems to be consistent with the position of global disarmament and non-proliferation.  But,  Iran continues to defy UN sanctions and threats and continues to develop its nuclear program and many feel threatened in the region, particularly Israel.  At some point in time, if Iran getsa  nuclear weapon, that very fact will be a deterrent from anyone attacking Iran so if one needs to stop the nuclear program by force,then it must be done before it is complete.  An pre-emptive strike by Israel might be described as an act of self preservation, an act of war or an act of enforcement of the ideals of a non-proliferation policy. 

Brzeznski Wants to Provide Aircover?

The former security advisor to President Carter seems to suggest now that the US should consider shooting down any Israeli aircraft that might fly over Iraqi airspace if they tried to attack Iran in an effort to stop them from completing their program that is said to be one of weapons aspiration.  So, in effect what Zbigniew Brzezinski is saying is that the US should be the last line of defense for Iran.  If Iran is indeed developign nuclear weapons and the “world” does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons but has not been able to stop it, then wouldn’t  such action proposed by Brzenski mean that the US would be using force against an allie in order to allow Iran to complete its desire to develop a nuclear weapon, which would go against the Obama adminstration stance regaring disarmament and non-proliferation? 

Is the disarmament policy of the US or the west in general a good idea and should the US use force, if necesary, to prevent Israel from preventing further proliferation and also to maintain its own security?  Is Brzezinski’s statement contradictory to the Obama stance as outlined to the UN or is it consistent?  Is it dangerous for a former security advisor to be even making such a public suggestion?  My guess is that you probably are not a diplomat, but I’d wager that you do have an opinion.

On This Date In History: This date in 1861 was not a good day for flying. At 3:30 AM on April 20, 1861 Thaddeus S C Lowe decided it was a good time to test his new 20,000 cubic foot balloon called Enterprise. I’m not sure if the balloon was shown in the Star Trek movie that showed all of the previous vessels called Enterprise. I don’t think that I recall that being the case. Anyway, he takes off from Cincinnati before the sun comes up and his little test mission turned into a misadventure. He got whisked away by 100 mph winds aloft that sent him to South Carolina. He thought he’d get welcomed like a crowned prince like the Wizard of Oz. Instead he was arrested as a spy. Apparently the professor was absent minded as he had no clue that 6 days before Fort Sumnter had fallen and the Civil War had begun. Fellow academics convinced the state authorities that Lowe was on a scientific mission and they let him go.

I’m not sure if Lowe was ticked at being arrested or if his buddies were

wrong because Lowe promptly went north and became the leader of the Union’s Army of the Potomac Aeronautic Corps of balloonists. Lowe designed and built several balloons for a whole Union fleet with the largest being the 32,000 cubic foot Intrepid that required 1200 yards of silk. This was a group of mainly civilians who made some 3000 flights in the first two years of the war. They would tether up and view the battlefield from aloft and then use a telegraph to wire down the enemy position and direct artillery fire. It was the forerunner to aerial reconnaissance. In fact, later in WWI, the airplane was used initially for that purpose until it was discovered you could drop bombs from planes or put machine guns on the plane and shoot down enemy planes and blimps. Anyway, on this date in 1861 Lowe himself was shot down. Somehow he ended up behind enemy lines. I don’t know if he got caught up in another 100 mph wind or enemy fire cut his tether or if he was just going on another “scientific excursion” but down he went and he was captured again. His wife Leontine was a witness to the whole thing. Did she sit and cry? Did she hope that academics would again get her husband set free? Nope. Instead, she personally led a raid of nighttime commandos who moved in and rescued the professor.

Before the war, Lowe had established a reputation for new theories and study in Chemistry, Meteorology and Aviation. He had a dream of a transatlantic balloon flight. I guess he got rich because after the war, he moved to Pasadena, CA and built a 24,000 foot house. He established a railroad to Mount Wilson and tinkered in all sorts of things. They’ve named a Mountain for him and the Lowe Observatory among other things. Funny thing is the guy ended up living with his daughter in her Pasadena home as he lost his fortune. Makes you wonder if now California will rename its mountains something like Mount AIG or Mount Lehman Brothers.

HPC rain totals Thu PM to Sun PM

Weather Bottom Line:  The forecast is holding on track. That is for more of the same.  More clouds than sunshine with rain chances through Saturday.  The Hydrological Prediction Center has rainfall totals for Friday Through Sunday the greatest just to our east/northeast.  We are in the inch to inch and a half range with the maximum of 3.26″ at the conjunction of Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky borders.  That’s close enough to ponder whether or not we may get a bit more than currently advertised.  The risk for strong storms will be greates with an initial front late Saturday.  Sunday should be pretty nice with drier air and sunshine then cooler air for the first part of the week comes in.  Look for upper 60′s and low 70′s on Monday with Tuesday probably a little cooler. In fact, overnight lows in the 40′s Tuesday morning will probably be fairly common.  You could tell last night that we’d be cloudy with rain today…there was a channel of moisture streaming up from the Gulf to our west that extended into Iowa. It was fairly predictable that would shift over the Ohio Valley…and sure enough…we got it this morning and the clouds stuck around all day.

Hope and Change? Russians Say US is Marxist, Obama New Gorbachev! Rapid City 1972 Flood June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation. Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho? When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota. A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours. Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable. Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up. Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain. On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam. The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City. Some 238 people lost their lives that night. Most of the homeowners had no insurance. Today the dam has been rebuilt. I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today. There’s one big difference. There is no residential community in the flood plain any more. Today it’s a golf course. It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed. It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook for June 10 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  This is an update to similar post earlier.  The story is about the same though the SPC expanded the severe risk area markedly.  I suspect this is in response to the divergence in model solutions as there is a consistency of a strong short rolling around to the north and then that secondary short moving out of the plains and into the region.  But, its very difficult to nail down exactly where the second short will go and even the extent of the northern, stronger short.  Guess here is that the enhanced humidity level, warm conditions and increased instability will lend itself to supporting strong storms wherever the kicker short comes through.  Otherwise, there will be the risk of scattered convectively induced activity.  While I’m still of the mind that the secondary short may be mainly south of our area, I have some concern of the extent of the instability of the northern short.  Further, the secondary short may very a shade from my suspicions and so a variance of say 30 miles at initiation will make a lot of difference downstream.  Tornadic threat would most likely be minimal as support conditions for such activity will probably be limited, but local conditions can always produce some monkeybusiness.  Biggest threat will be for hail and strong winds dragged down from aloft.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK/KS EWD INTO THE MID
   OH/TN VALLEY REGION…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED/WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD…BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
   OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FASTER WSWLY FLOW…SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE ENEWD…CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD ZONE OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOCUSED INVOF A SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO LIE
   FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
  
   …KS/OK EWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS…
   SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM ERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO
   THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION…AS AT LEAST TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION/MCS
   SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN
   VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD.  SEVERE POTENTIAL –
   PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — WITH THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KY/TN AND VICINITY THROUGH
   THE DAY…ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
   PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W ACROSS SRN MO AND
   INTO ERN KS/ERN OK…QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING BOTH AIRMASS QUALITY
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SWD/CONVECTIVELY-ALTERED LOCATION OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. 
  
   ATTM…IT APPEARS THAT SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS
   SRN MO AND VICINITY…IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR
   CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.
    NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH
   SOME WWD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER IN THE DAY WITHIN
   THIS REGION OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.  WITH MODERATELY-STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD…AMPLE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
   STORMS — WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   LIKELY.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IF
   CELLULAR STORM MODE COULD BE MAINTAINED…MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL
   WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — ESPECIALLY WITH LIKELY
   EVOLUTION INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS THROUGH THE EVENING. 
  
   …N TX SWWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND REGION…
   THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH MODERATE
   WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW…AND THUS IN HANDLING OF THE SURFACE PATTERN
   ACROSS TX.  THE NAM — WITH A WEAK FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS W
   TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON — DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX
   BIG BEND…AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SELYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NRN AND WRN TX.  MEANWHILE…THE GFS PROGS A STRONGER FEATURE TO
   MOVE OUT OF NM AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   THUS — THE GFS SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER SWRN OK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON…WITH MUCH MORE VEERED/SWLY SURFACE WINDS S OF THE LOW
   OVER THE WRN HALF OF TX BEHIND AN EWD-MIXING DRYLINE.
  
   THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
   THE NAM SCENARIO…WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
   PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITHIN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
    ATTM…WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION — WHICH WOULD BE FOR A
   LESSER SEVERE THREAT WITH LESS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER E.
    WHILE A 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED…WILL SHIFT
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY WWD AS A HEDGE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
   NAM SCENARIO.
  
   …MID-ATLANTIC REGION…
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXPECTED ACROSS
   VA/NC AND VICINITY.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE
   MODEST…PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE
   SURFACE TROUGH — ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND.
   CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
  
   ..GOSS.. 06/09/2009

Russian Press: U.S. A Marxist Nation, Obama New Gorbachev; Remember When Rapid City Washed Away? June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

 A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation.  Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho?  When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota.  A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours.  Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable.  Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up.  Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain.  On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam.   The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City.  Some 238 people lost their lives that night.  Most of the homeowners had no insurance.  Today the dam has been rebuilt.  I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today.  There’s one big difference.  There is no residential community in the flood plain any more.  Today it’s a golf course.  It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed.  It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook June 10, 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  The strong storms that the SPC was looking for near our area did stay together on Monday evening.  But, they tracked south toward Paducah.  Snow White and I took the time to scull on Monday and my friend Bob Crane was on hand to watch me get all bent out of shape because the foot pads were in the wrong place and my seat kept coming off the runners.  Snow White chastised me for my choice of verbiage, which I also used when I almost tipped over on the river when the waves picked up.  Bob Crane laughed and the turtles were silent.

With humidity levels increasing, we may get an isolated t’storm or two on Tuesday afternoon.  But,  Wednesday,  there will be a shortwave wandering through the flow from the plains.  The track of the short will be the key but it is possible that we may see an enhanced risk for t’storms.  Preliminarily, the SPC has us in the slight risk area.  Won’t be surprised to see it miss us to the south and be in a fading mode, as the Canadian and GFS 12Z model runs suggest.  However, the NAM creates a huge shortwave right over  the top of us which means on Wednesday night we’d get some action.   I’m a little skeptical though because the NAM’s solution has this thing blowing up late in the day instead of fading.  Nevertheless, it is worth noting and watching. 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE OH
   VLY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SRN STREAM TROUGH
   ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SWRN STATES AND PROMINENT NRN BRANCH UPR LOW
   ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  A FAIRLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE FORMER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS…PHASING WITH THE NRN UPR LOW BY WEDNESDAY
   AFTN/EVE.  RESULTANT BAND OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ENE
   ALONG A SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD RESIDE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO
   THE OH VLY REGION.  THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR EPISODIC TSTM
   CLUSTERS…SOME SVR FOR THE MID-WEEK PD.
  
   …SRN PLNS TO THE OH VLY…
   ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VLY AT 12Z WED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-OH VLY WITH TIME.  SVR THREAT WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE WHERE PERSISTENT SSWLY
   LLJ TRANSPORTS A WARM/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO THE MID-MS
   VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.  AT THE SAME TIME…RELATIVELY
   WARM MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR…PROVIDING A CAP.
  
   WHILE HEATING ALONE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP…AS
   AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHTS FALLS SPREAD ENE…TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   INVOF A SFC LOW/FRONT FROM IL/IND BY MID-AFTN…THEN EXPAND SWWD
   ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF OK.  OTHER STORMS
   MAY FORM SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF NWRN/WCNTRL TX.
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   HIGH WINDS/HAIL. 
  
   FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
   ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.  HERE…WSWLY LLVL FLOW WILL FEED ANY TSTM
   CLUSTERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH BACKBUILDING/ELEVATED STORMS
   POSSIBLY CONTAINING HAIL.
  
   ..RACY.. 06/08/2009

Is Palm Sunday a Tornado Magnet? Strong Storms Today? March 28, 2009

Is Palm Sunday a Tornado Magnet?

 

Momma Saved Her Boy

On This Date in History:  What is the dang deal with Palm Sunday and Tornado outbreaks?  There have been significant widespread tornado outbreaks on a Palm Sunday in the United States four times.  On March 27 1994 42 people perished.  On April 11, 1965 47 tornadoes took the lives of 217 and injured over 1500.   The event of April 5,1936 has a rather interesting trivial angle.    It featured  a very strong tornado in Tupelo, Mississippi.  A young mother was able to protect her one year old son, but 216 people died that day in Tupelo.  The little boy who survived?  Elvis Aaron Presley.

Toledo Paper With Tornado Headlines

Now, when you look at a hurricane chart of significant hurricanes, you find the names of storms, but one kinda stands out.  That one simply says “Galveston 1900.”  That’s all you need to know.  But, you can’t just say “hey…what about the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak?”  The only possible answer is, “which one?”  The first and the fourth in the list was on this date in 192o.  At that time, there was no National Weather Service.  It was still known as the US Weather Bureau.   And at that time they did not do surveys or assessments to determine the stregnth and number of tornadoes.  So, the 38 tornadoes reported is generally thought to be far fewer than there actually were.  The twisters were reported in the Midwest and the Deep South.  Much of this area, especially 90 years ago, was very rural so no one can know for certain if there were tornadoes in sparsely populated areas.  Further, it is not known if a given single tornado was actually more than one.  But, that’s a rather academic argument because the bottom line is that over 380 people were killed that day and well over 1200 injured.  The states affected were Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Wilmette Illinios

This situation is something that is fairly common in the spring months in the US and that is why there have been so many significant events on Palm Sunday.  Palm Sunday moves around each year but always falls in either March or April.  During that time, its not unusual for a strong storm to come out of the Rockies and clash with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.   So, this guy comes out of the Rockies, swings around through Missouri and lifts up toward the Great Lakes.  Not only was there warm moist air ahead of the system, but there was also sunshine in the northern plains.  Most likely, there was a second piece of energy that swung through, perhaps on a warm front in the South and that is what resulted in the twisters there.

Elgin Illinois

Now, there have been many advances in technology and procedures since then.  Really, the first time before the 1950′s that a formal post analysis was taken was after the March 18, 1925 Tri-State Tornado.   That evaluation concluded that it was a single tornado that stayed on the ground supposedly for 234 miles through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana and killed 695 people.    Another analysis was done for the Tupelo Palm Sunday tornado and again in 1947 for a major tornado in Oklahoma.  Now, the practice is routine to investigate every tornado report to determine whether or not the damage assessment is supportive of an evidentuary tornado and, if so, then how strong and how big was the tornado.  We now have warnings and watches and super duper doppler future 3000 advanced 3-D storm tracker radars on TV to show us where tornadoes are.  We can actually see where tornadoes are on TV and even warn for potential tornadoes developing before anyone on the ground can see them.  Quite remarkable when one considers that just 70 years ago having several hundred people die from a tornado was not all that uncommon.

Dayton, Ohio Headlines

US Tornadoes and Tornado Days

With all of that advancement, the number and frequency of fatalities due to tornadoes has dropped dramatically.   The number of reported tornadoes has also increased.  The reason is not Global Warming but instead we have a coverage of radars across the tornado prone regions of the US and also there are more people to report them and there are procedures in place to do post analysis.  Nowadays, we even see more and more tornadoes on the tube because there are so many people out there with video cameras to record the actual events.  More troubling, however, is the trend in the last several years of tornado fatalities rising.  There is some thought that this is due to  too much technology and too much reporting.  The National Weather Service is trying to improve on the ratio of tornado warnings to actual tornado touchdowns, but its tough.  I mean, the idea of the Doppler Radar is to be able to warn the public of a tornado before it ever is seen…to give people as much time as possible to prepare.  Trouble is, not all rotation in a thunderstorm turns into a tornado touchdown and there is no way to reliably differentiate which ones.  But, if you don’t warn for a rotating storm and it touches down and kills people, then people will be outraged that they knew a storm was rotating and had a tornadic potential and said nothing! 

US Tornado Deaths 1950-2008

 The TV stations go on the air and report constantly on the severe weather threat.  Some are better at it than others.  Some of the people on the air really aren’t qualified to be in such a position of responsibility.  Fortunately, in Louisville, we have a pretty good crop of folks.  In fact, even with some of the recent changes in personnel, we still have an unusual number of well versed people at each station.  But, not everywhere is like that.  I once worked at a place where we stayed on the air all night when the threat for tornadoes was very limited, at best.  The stunt was strictly promotional.  There are many tv foofs who want to get into a duel with their local National Weather Service office.  In more cases than not, the person that tries to promote his or her ability to be greater than the offiicial entity of the United States Government that is responsible for collecting and disseminating information and passing it on to the public is typically someone with a shaky or limited background.  Anyway, the fear is that all of this stuff going out into the public creates a ho-hum attitude from many people.   It’s almost a cry wolf syndrome and people are beginning to not take warnings seriously.  That is a big problem but is also a tough one to overcome.  I’m afraid its something we will have to cope with for some time to come because I am skeptical that research can improve regarding the exact development of potential tornadic thunderstorms…and I doubt if there will be a trend to hire smarter tv weather people.

Not Counted 60 Years Ago?

But, there has been one welcome change since 1920 and its one that would have most of us scratching our heads today.  The reason why there is not an exact number of fatalities and injuries from the Palm Sunday outbreak of 1920 is that many of the dead and injured, particulary in Alabama and Georgia, were African-Americans.  If you can believe it…more than 50 years after the passing of the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments to the Constitution that followed a bloody Civil War….deaths and injuries for non-whites were not included in natural disasters as part of individual state protocal.  Unbelievable.  When the Federal Government got more involved in 1950′s, the National Weather Bureau did not subscribe to that nonsense.  Something to consider…in 2009 Barack Obama was elected President of the United States but in 1949, he would not have been counted as a person killed had he died in a tornado at that time.

SPC Convective Outlook Sat 8AM to Sun 8AM

SPC Sat Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line

: It’s not Palm Sunday, but its that time of year.   There is a system that is typical for creating havoc across the Midwest and South.  Not too dissimilar from the Palm Sunday tornado in 1920, we have had a series of areas of low pressure swinging out of the Rockies and across the South.  These can arguably be attributed to pieces of energy breaking off a powerful storm coming out of the Northwest.  Those disturbances have produced 6 tornado reports on Thursday and 19 on Friday.  Now, the big bopper is coming out to play.  On Friday, the Texas Panhandle had temperatures in the 20′s with blizzard conditions as the big storm dove out of the Rockies.  Meanwhile, in South Texas temperatures were around the 100 degree mark.  Yup…I’d say there is quite a contrast in weather criteria across the country and, just like life, when there is great contrast, often there is conflict.

So, this big guy will swing down across North Texas and then up to the Northeast. 

SPC Sat Hail Probability

On Saturday, we’ll have a chance for showers.  Highs will only be in the  low 60′s, perhaps.  It’s in the evening when we get into some potential trouble.  The main surface storm center will come pretty close to running right over the top of us.  We will be very windy.  There will be a pretty good chance for some damaging winds.  With the cold core coming over us, hail is certainly not out of the question.  And, there will be the potential for isolated tornadoes.  However, from what I have seen in viewing the forecast vertical profiles and the accompanying indecies,  it would seem to me that the severe thunderstorm threat will be pretty high but the tornado threat will be a bit inhibited.  Twisters are not out of the question but should be most likely in the Southeastern US.  Our dynamics from the 00Z Sat NAM and 18Z Fri GFS both are advertised to be best Saturday afternoon, but that is generally prior to when the heaviest rain will be coming through.  Its the transistion time from around sunset through about 10 pm that is most suspect.  Sunday looks crummy with windy conditions and then we start to ramp up the temperatures early next week.  Thursday, the GFS still wants to bring some racket here on Thursday.   

SPC Sat Wind Probability

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
  
   VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   OH/TN VLYS INTO THE SERN STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   STACKED UPR LOW OVER OK/N TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY
   TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
   SATURDAY NIGHT.  ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR MEMPHIS NEWD
   INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.  TRAILING CDFNT WILL
   SWEEP EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW FROM THE MS VLY EARLY SATURDAY TO THE
   APLCNS AND NRN FL BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT…A WARM
   FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN GA…THE CNTRL CAROLINAS…AND
   INTO TIDEWATER VA/MD.
  
   …SERN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA…
   ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST
   FOR SATURDAY.  CNTRL GULF COAST MCS THAT IGNITED ALONG INCREASING
   MOIST SLY LLVL FLOW ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS
   ERN MS…AL AND THE FL PNHDL.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…GULF BOUNDARY
   LAYER THAT WAS SHUNTED SWD ON FRIDAY…IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD INTO
   AT LEAST SRN/CNTRL GA AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
   AFTN/EVE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN
   BE REALIZED…MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SERN AL
   NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.  A LIKELY MCV…BORNE FROM THE MCS…WILL
   MOVE ENEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS…SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SVR
   THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS FAR NE AS VA.
  
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE
   REGION OWING TO SLY H85 FLOW OF 50 KTS VEERING TO WSWLY AT H5 IN
   EXCESS OF 60 KTS.  SUPERCELL MODES WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO
   BOWS/LEWPS GIVING DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  HIGHEST TORNADO RISK
   WILL ACCOMPANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING
   WRMFNT…NAMELY FROM SERN AL…CNTRL/SRN GA NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
   CAROLINAS.
  
   …TN/OH VLYS…
   A SEPARATE AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE TN/OH VLYS DURING THE AFTN/EVE.  STRONGEST DCVA WILL
   TRANSLATE NEWD AWAY FROM THE RICH GULF MOISTURE SOURCE FARTHER SE.
   BUT…LINGERING 50S SFC DEW POINTS ARCING BACK ALONG THE CDFNT/SFC
   LOW INTO THE LWR OH VLY BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG.  EXPECT THAT
   SCTD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY FROM PARTS OF WRN
   KY/MIDDLE TN AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  A FEW LOW-TOPPED
   SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AND ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF SRN IND…SWRN OH
   AND KY/ERN TN DURING THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT…ESPECIALLY
   WITH MORE SUSTAINED STORMS AND CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK.  SVR
   THREATS WILL DIMINISH WITH NE EXTENT AND AFTER SUNSET.
  
   ..RACY/HURLBUT.. 03/28/2009

This Date In History: Inauguration Firsts January 20, 2009

Lincoln Inauguration 1861 with Unfinished Capitol Dome...PerhapsThe Nation is Now Closer to Completion

This Date in History: This is truly a date in history. One hundred and forty-four years ago on this date, this nation was embroiled in a horrible Civil War that cost the lives of over 600,000 Americans. On this date in 1865, the Emancipation Proclamation had freed hundreds of thousands of slaves in the rebellious South, but slavery was still the law of the land in the four “border” states.

About 9 months ago, I got into an argument with people at work about the prospects of Senator Obama. I was shouted down…told that he could never be elected President. I was told that America was too “racist.” I was told that people would tell pollsters that they would vote for him but in the privacy of the voting booth, would not. I argued that my generation and younger were not raised that way. I argued that, in their hearts, Americans in general are a patriotic people and will vote for whomever they think is best for the nation and its future.  I was right and so on this date in history, 2009 President Barack Obama was the 44th American sworn in as the 44th as President of the United States. For years I’ve told kids in schools that, if you try, that you never know what will happen and perhaps our nation is finally evolving to reach closer to the lofty ideals set forth by the founding fathers. But this is not the only “first” on inauguration day. There have been many “firsts and unusual circumstance” set forth when the president is sworn in.

John Adams First President?

 First off, the 1788 Confederation Congress set the first presidential inauguration to be the first Wednesday in March. Transportation and communications weren’t too good so it was four months after the election so that the electors would have plenty of time to gather and cast their votes.  But, in 1789, the weather was horrendus and no one could get to New York, the capitol at the time.  So, a quorum of the House and Senate could not be established, hence, no official business could be done.  It wasn’t until April 6, 1789 that enough members showed up that the votes could be counted, with all 69 going to Washington, the only man to be unanimously elected President of the United States. 

Here’s an interesting tidbit…John Adams was sworn in as Vice-President on April 21, 1789 so he could take up his duties as President of the Senate.  But, Washington didn’t get to town until over a week later.  So, since there was no President…doesn’t the Vice President take over the duties as President? Doesn’t this mean that John Adams was really the first President of the United States?  Something to ponder as you read further….

Washington Inaugural 1789 (note the sword)

George Washington wore a sword at his first inaugural, which was held on April 30, 1789 on the balcony of Federal Hall in New York.  Like many things, Washington set a national precedent since the Constitution is not specific about the ceremony of the inauguration, just the oath of office.  The act of delivering an inaugural address was started by Washington.  George Washington also ad-libbed “so help me God” at the end of the oath and kissed the bible.  It is not part of the official oath but the phrase has been added by every following president.  Presidents kissed the bible until Dwight Eisenhower broke the tradition.

The second inaugural of George Washington took place in the Senate Chamber of Constitution Hall in Philadelphia.  His speech was only 133 words; the shortest of all time.  That is a precedent that was not followed.

Jimmy Took A Stroll

Thomas Jefferson was the first president inaugurated in Washington DC in 1801, the first time it was the United States Capitol at the time of the inauguration.  Jefferson was the first to participate in the inaugural parade.  Ronald Reagan is the only president not to participate in the parade at his second inaugural because of extreme cold and wind.  Jimmy Carter became the first president to walk the parade route, setting a new precdent, though subsequent Commander’s in Chief have only walked a portion of the route for security purposes.

A Congressional Feud resulted in a first for James Madison’s inauguration.  It was supposed to be held in the House Chamber but Senators and Representatives argued over which chairs would be used.  So, in a Solomon-like move, the inauguration was held outdoors.  It was the first inauguration held outside and Madison was the first to deliver his inauguration address to the public.

James Monroe’s second inaugural was held on March 5, 1821.  Monroe set a precedent when he moved it to the first Monday after inaugural day since he decided not to have it on Sunday. It’s a precedent that has been followed since, though it is not in the Constitution to do so.  I think most of the time, the presidents have been sworn in privately on the prescribed day with the public ceremony being held on the following day.  Dwight Eisenhower did this in 1957.

Harrison's Talked Himself To Death

William Henry Harrison was a victim of his own decisions.  March 4, 1841 was exceedingly cold.  He gave the longest speech on record at a whopping 8,445 words.  The audience may have fallen asleep but he did not, insisting on participating in the parade.  Harrison fell to “Tecumseh’s Curse” and died a month later from pneumonia…traced to his long exposure to the elements at his inaugural.  He would have been wise to follow Washington’s precedent of a short speech.

Much has been made of Abraham Lincoln’s second inaugural address.  While it only was 698 words, the words are etched in history on the Lincoln Memorial.  But…did you know that African-Americans first marched in the inaugural parade on March 4, 1865?

US Grant’s second inaugural in 1873 was the coldest March 4 inaugural.  Cadets and Midshipmen from the military academies stood at attention for about 90 minutes…that is until several collapsed as they were without overcoats.  The luncheon afterward was cut short when the food froze.

On March 4, 1925 “Silent” Cal Coolidge was ironically the first president to have his inaugural address broadcast.  His was also the first to have the oath administered by a former president, William Howard Taft, who at that time was Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first to have his inauguration on January 20 in 1937 after the passage of the 20th Amendment.  It was also the first time that the Vice-President was inaugurated outdoors on the same stage.  His 1945 fourth inaugural was held at the South Portico of the White House.  There was no big ceremony due to the circumstance of World War II.  There was no parade due to gas and lumber rationing.  His speech was only 557 words.

January 20, 1949 found President Truman on the tube.  The first televised presidential inaugural.

Dwight D. Eisenhower broke a tradition of George Washington when he did not kiss the bible following the oath on January 20, 1953.

George H. W Bush...1000 Points of Light...But No Firsts

Ronald Reagan’s first inaugural broke tradition and held the event on the West Front of the Capitol instead of the East Portico since it could accomodate more people.  Reagan’s first inaugural was the warmest on record.  His second was the coldest.

On January 20, 1997 William Jefferson Clinton became the first president to have his inaugural broadcast on the internet.  No doubt, Al Gore was proud.

January 20, 2009 will not only be the first inauguration of an African-American as President of the United States…it will also be the most expensive inaugural of all time.  Estimates are that it will be four times more expensive than the next most costly.  This inaugural might need a bailout.

Weather Bottom Line:  I liked listening to the silence of the snow on Sunday night.  Snow White and I did not go out and walk in it though because we figured we would never be able to warm up from the cold.  No…I still don’t have heat.  I should have it on Tuesday.  Just in time for the temperatures to move up to the mid to upper 30′s on Wednesday and then the mid to upper 40′s for the rest of the week.  Then the weekend we get cold again in the upper 20′s and low 30′s.  But, this is my beware moment….next Monday into Tuesday could be a real mess.  Perhaps going from snow…to ice and or rain…then back to snow.  It’s still a week out so there is lots of time for the computers to change their minds…but we need to keep an eye on that, particularly if someone you know is traveling.

Corruption, Selling Of Senate Not New w/ Blagojevich December 11, 2008

Obama/Blagodevich Dec. 2 2008...Obama says he's had "no contact"...That's only not contact in the NBA

The low that brought the storms to our south that I talked about cutting off some of the moisture our way on Tuesday brought a bunch of tornadoes in the deep south.  I’m not sure if I’m statistically correct, but I would wager that the deep south is the most likely place to find tornadoes in the winter so its not unprecedented.  That low will run up the east coast Thursday.  We”ll be chilly and Friday remain cold with maybe even a bit of rain or errant snowflakes.  We turn milder on Sunday.

Don’t Got To Work if you are Happy!  In California, it was proposed that people “call in gay” on Wednesday and not show up for work.  It was supposed to show how important gay people were to the work force and society in general.  It was to show support for those opposed to Proposition 8 which recently was passed in California by a majority of voters who want marriage to be defined as between a man and a woman.  I don’t get it.  Happy people are indeed an integral part of society and a happy workforce is a productive workforce and I don’t see how showing how happy you are has anything to do with politics.

Richard J Daley Stirred Up '68 Convention

The Blagojevich Senate Seat For Sale Issue Is Not New:  This is another installment of my reasons to not get too worked up over today’s controversies because they’ve happened before and the Republic has survived.

Much has been made in recent days about the “unprecedented” alleged sale of a Senate seat by Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich.  The Constitution initially called for senators from each state to be appointed by elected by state legislatures.  Remember, the founders weren’t too keen on giving the public direct involvement in determining who was in federal office.  Representatives were the only officials elected directly by the people and their terms were limited to just two years.The president is actually elected by the Electoral College, which is not bound by the popular vote to cast their ballots as the public did.  Judges are appointed.  It was feared that if Governors appointed senators, then they could hold out for the highest offer, but they also didn’t trust the public to make a determination.  So, a compromise was reached in which legislators from the state, elected by the people, would be the best to determine the most qualified individuals to represent each state.  It was ascertained that gaining a senate seat unethically would be more difficult when individuals had to face an entire elective body.

Sounds good.  Eventually, the 17th Amendment was passed in 1913 that called for the election of Senators directly by

Does Lorimer Look like a Crook?

 the people of each state.  Perhaps in response to hijinx in the selection process.  In 1912, Illinois Senator William Lorimer was refused a seat in the Senate by that body because it was found he had paid a bunch of money to just about the entire Illinois legislature.  See, it was commonly thought in the 19th century that rich guys could buy their way into the Senate by doing what Lorimer tried to do.  From 1866 to 1906, six bribery cases were brought in the senate.  In 1899, these two guys had gotten a bundle from their gold mining exploits and thought that they would buy the seat.  Each spread money around the legislature and the process took 17 ballots.  Each time there was another vote, each guy had to pass out more loot to keep the legislators in their respective corners from switching sides.  I wonder if the Montana legislature was running a scam on the scammers because the more votes they had, the more money they made.  Finally, on the last vote, a winner was declared but the Senate refused to seat him and the post remained vacant for two years.

Interestingly, the Lorimer case probably was the tipping point and helped propel the ratifcation of the 17th Amendment the year after the Lorimer monkey business.  While the amendment gave the power directly to the people, it had a clause that brings us to today that read,  “When vacancies happen in the representation of any state in the Senate, the executive authority of such state shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies.”  Because Senator Obama will soon be President Obama, his seat is open and its left to the Governor to fill the seat and back to the fears of the Founding Fathers.  That’s where Blagodevich comes in.  Curiously, the same situation arises in New York and Delaware with Senator Clinton and Senator Biden giving up their seats, yet…no news of corruption there.

Nope, it’s Illinois.  In recent years, we had Republican Governor George Ryan. He had a long history of corruption charges but he was elected anyway.  In 2003, he “retired” from political life but was then indicted and eventually convicted of fraud charges.  He’s still in jail.  His ouster led to Blagojevich’s rise.  Barack Obama was involved in Blogo’s election in 2002, but recently said he had “no contact” with the embattled governor. (See Details of Questions Involving Obama Blagodevich Relationship) 

He Made Her Do It and GOP Made Him Quit

Before that, there was Republican Jack Ryan of Illinois…no relation to George.  He was a good looking, bright, energetic candidate for Senator.  His opponent?  The young man from the Illinois legislature?  Barack Obama.  Ryan’s candidacy was derailed at a late date in the campaign when his divorce records were released to the public.  Earlier in the campaign, both he and his ex-wife, Actress Jeri Ryan, agreed that their divorce records should be unsealed but not the part regarding custody.  A judge in California decided that those records should be released as well and so it was found that Ryan had gotten his wife to go to wild clubs for the intent of having sex in public.  That was the end of him, though it should be noted that neither parent wanted that part released in order to protect their young son.  Nevermind…politics trumps the kids!  The Republicans literally dropped in Alan Keyes, from Maryland, to take Ryan’s place but Illinoisians weren’t about to vote for a guy who parachuted in to their state and Obama won in a landslide.

Of course, we have the recent allegations of Obama associations with controversial Chicago figures such as William Ayers (Weatherundeground admitted domestic terrorist) and Rev. Jeremiah Wright as well as convicted felon Tony Rezco.    But, to be fair, it seems like its tough to be a politician

Felon Still Picking Up Nice Congressional Pension

from either party without running into questionable characters.  We had the controversial Chicago Mayor Richard J Daley.  Now we have his son, controversial Mayor Richard M. Daley…this guy knows Obama too.  Not long ago, there was Democrat Illinois Congressman Dan Rostenkowski, who was indicted on 17 felony charges, including embezzlement of nearly $700,000 of taxpayer and campaign funds (Remember the stamps?)  He served 15 months in prison before being pardoned by President Clinton.  Today he pockets something in the neighborhood of $100,000 a year from his congressional pension.

We could go on…at least back to Al Capone and all of the judges, police officials and political figures that he paid off…but I won’t.  But, I would suggest that Illinois can give Louisiana a run for its money (bad pun) as the poster state for corruption…or at least corruption known.

Coolest Waterfall Ever; Global Warming Bill Passes In UK Arctic Blast; Warm Winter Ahead? Late Pleas for Votes November 1, 2008

This is So Cool...Watch It! Click on Link Below!

This is the Coolest Waterfall you will ever see!

If you have a few minutes, you really need to click on this video of a waterfall(look at the video, don’t just click the pic!) that is from Canal City in Fukouka Japan. The heading claims its from China but its Japan. Its a giant shopping and entertainment mall. You can read about it here…but check out the video, its worth your time.

Brits Doubt Global Warming; October Snow Falls For First Time in 86 Years as Parliament Passes Massive Global Warming Bill

Good Time For a Global Warming Bill?

Very interesting situation. Its seems that quite often, there is a Global Warming conference and, during that conference, the weather in whatever city it is being held has some sort of unusual winter weather. I think it happened a few years ago in New York and it happened this past Wednesday in London. As snow fell over the Metro area for the first time in October since 1922 at the end of Coldest October Since 74, Parliament passed a very aggressive bill that would target Great Britain’s Carbon Dioxide output be reduced by 80% by 2050. One member asked why a cost/benefit analysis was not conducted and he was told to “shut up.” A member, who is also a member of Greenpeace says the bill is doomed to fail. Meantime, 60% of Brits doubt that Global Warming is man made and a majority think Global Warming won’t be as bad as advertised. What I find interesting that someone who asked a good question was told to shut his yap. Does that sound like a tolerance? Does it sound like Democracy? You decide as you read the article from The Register

for a look at the climate prediction center US winter forecast, CLICK HERE

Who Should You Vote For?

All those ads on TV….what to do? Well, I thought I might help you out. It was really hard to find something that wasn’t stupid or over the top. These are straight forward, plain talk calls without a bunch of gobbledygook…just short speeches.

First is Senator Obama outlining why he is running for President…from the outset and what he plans to do. (Click Here)

Now, here is former Senator Fred Thompson, telling you why the fate of the nation resides in your voting for John McCain. (Click Here)