Malware Preditors Exploit California Wildfires, which are still wild but more contained September 3, 2009

The Station Fire in Southern California continues to expand but at a much slower rate.  Wednesday acreage was 140,000 and by Thursday it was up to 147,000 acres.  But, the area considered contained increased from 22% to 38%.  On Wednesday I opined about the potential for the windflow to come down from the mountains, cause compressional warming and drying and hamper the efforts.  I had thought about that potential from the circulation from Jimena, though I knew that Jimena was probably a shade too far south for any real effects.  Well, they did get some down slope winds on Wednesday night that cause flair ups and headaches for the fire fighting efforts, though I cannot say that Jimena had anything to do with it nor is it safe to suggest that any such occurence would be a result of Jimena as the storm continues to wind down.  Nevertheless, there is still over 60% of the Station Fire not under control of containment.

Terminator Visits the Terminated

 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map has details and locations of several brushfires around the state.  Wildfire Incident Reports continue to come in on an almost hourly basis.   There is another crisis developing indirectly due to the wildfires…that is that unscrupulous folks are creating malware to infect the computers of people looking for California Wildfire information.  So, beware…only go to known sites.   Here is a known site for you…the Los Angeles Times Photo Gallery shows recent photos from the fires.  I’m noting that there is a change in the subject matter as we are now seeing more and more of the aftermath and devastation following the fires and less of the fires themselves.  At right is an image from the LA Times of Arnold visiting what is left of a home.  Typically, its merely a foundation and a fireplace.

Jimena Satellite 20:30Z Sept 3 2009

Hurricane Jimena came ashore as a dying hurricane. It was not a major hurricane at landfall as the cold waters off the west coast of Baja California took its toll.  Right now the heavy rain and thunderstorms is displaced well to the east of the center over the Mexican mainland.  It’s not surprising that its kinda meandering about as the models were going for a northeastward track into New Mexico and then a due west course into the Pacific where it would get killed by the cold water.  That sort of flip-flop often is indicative of a pattern that reflects weak steering current.  And that appears to be the case.  As mentioned previously, it is a downward cycle of its life, is expected to drift southwest and is just so far south, its doubtful that there will be much significant effect for the firefighting in California, though maybe some adverse easterly breezes may be produced, especially at night.

Jimena Forecast Track NHC 2PM EDT 09.03.09

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
OF JIMENA THIS MORNING…WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. 

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA…AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY…AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
WEAK…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND BAM SHALLOW.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     06/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

California Fires Continue Expansion, Kill Two Firefighters; Hurricane Jimena headed North September 1, 2009

Modern Borate Bomber

for an update on the california wildfires and hurriane jimena CLICK HERE

If I still lived where I did in my early years, I’d be out of a home. The Station Wildfire near Los Angeles is burning out of control and late Monday reports say that over 12,000 homes are threatened from Pasadena to La Crescenta. I used to go to the YMCA at La Crescenta and I recally once a big brush fire behind the our house. From the YMCA I could see the powerline standards that were behind our house and I remember my mother frantically picking me up from the Y and screaming at me to get into the car as I said, “did you see all of that smoke by our house?” We didn’t get evacuated but there were ashes raining down on our house like snow. All of the houses on our street had rock roofs. There were what we called Borate Bombers, which was the reddish chemical retardant that they put on fires. They roared over our house. I believe at that time Borate Bombers were old B-17 bombers. They don’t use them any more but I’m pretty sure that the red stuff that they drop is the Borax based Borate we always used to see.   I don’t think that when we lived there, La Canada was considered an “exclusive community.”

The California Wildfire Interactive Map from the CA Emergency Management Agency shows that the Station Fire, as its known, started right by Angeles Crest Highway and has caused the death of two firefighters. I remember when they built that from a two lane road into a wide thoroughfare. It started kinda between Mt. Wilson and our house. Well, there aren’t any big winds so this thing is expanding in several directions. At the top of Mt. Wilson is a famous observatory that shows up in many movies. There are also a whole bunch of tv and radio towers and other transmission towers. I remember KTTV used to advertise that they transmitted “high atop Mt. Wilson.” The Mt. Wilson Observatory and the communications towers on Mt. Wilson are threatened. If they go down, it will be interesting to see what happens…it also may be dangerous as I suspect emergency communications depend on a relay at the top of the mountain.   There are also many fires in the state as outlined fire incident reports from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.   The  fire story is making global news as the Times of India passed along the report of 2 fatalities from the fires. 

Hurricane Jimena 00:30Z Rainbow IR 09/01/09

Hurricane Jimena Water Vapor Image 00:30 Sept 1, 2009

The region is extremely dry.   There may be some hope though in the form of Hurricane Jimena which is a powerful hurricane doing a rather odd thing.  It is approaching Category 5 status which is pretty rare for a storm off the Mexican Pacific Coast.  This guy has a central pressure on Monday afternoon of 931 mb.  That is pretty wild and very very unusual for a storm in this location.   It is not completely uncommon but not typical for a storm to also move north. It is expected to do so across Baja California and then continue into the Southwestern United States.   Now, when a storm does that, it rapidly loses its intensity so I would not expect it to bring drenching rains to  Southern California.  If you look at the water vapor image to te left, you can see all of the extreme dry air to the northwest of Jimena.  But, it could very possibly increase the general humidity levels which would be a help.    As we get toward the weekend a strong shortwave seems to want to show up in the flow on some of the models and move off the coast into the Los Angeles area.  That too may prove to be a help from Mother Nature. 

NHC Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm PDT Aug 31, 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA…AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT…AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS…PRIMARILY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO…THE MOTION IS
BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL…LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL…PREVIOUSLY
WESTERN OUTLIERS…HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS.  HOWEVER THE U.K. AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALSO…INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED…NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT…AND
DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  IN
FACT…THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED.  MOREOVER…TRACK FORECAST
ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W   135 KT
12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W   130 KT
24HR VT     01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W   125 KT
36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W   115 KT
48HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W    85 KT
72HR VT     03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W    50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W    50 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W    30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Southern California Suffers from Wildfires, Baja California Set for Major Hurricane Jimena August 30, 2009

This Could Very Well Be the Canyon Next to our Old House

The Smoke and Ash from a Brush Fire is more than you can imagine

For an update on the wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE

California Wildfires: Here is a Gallery of Photos.   In the Ohio Valley, we’ve had a pretty cool summer.  July had zero days of 90 degree temperatures for the first time in recorded history.  For the next few days, we’ll have highs in just the low to mid 70′s.  Its because there has been a general trofiness in the long wave pattern.  This pattern has contributed to such things as Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny going off the east coast toward Canada when that sort of thing is more common in October.  The other thing is that while there has been a general trof in the east, there has been a general ridge in the west, which means the other half of the country has been hotter than average and in several areas, drier than normal.  There is a big drought in Central Texas and it is quite dry  in California, which is a recipe for wildfires in an area that is typically pretty dry all by itself.  So, fires are raging near Los Angeles near my boyhood home in La Canada.  Here is an interactive map with links for fire information.  When I was a kid, La Canada was all by itself but now it more commonly called La Canada-La Crescenta-Flintridge because all of those communities have kinda run into each other.  Anyway, our old neighbors have evacuated and the area is under seige as our house backed up to the Angeles National Forest where it appears that this fire originated.  To give you an idea of how dry it is…at 8PM EDT a nearby reporting station had 9% humidity.   It is called the Station Fire.   There are many other fires though and  here is a link to wildfire incidents in California.   Governer Schwarzenegger has toured the area and issued decrees of warning. It  would be a good idea to heed calls to evacuate.

Hurricane Jimena Visible Satellte 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Infrared Rainbow Image 21Z 083009

Meanwhile, Baja California is bracing for a hit from a major hurricane.  Hurricane Jimena.  It’s not totally uncommon for a storm to move due north in the Pacific but its not a typical track.  Once it veers off to the west, it will encounter some pretty cold water from the California Stream that originates in Alaska…that is why surfers often wear wetsuits on the west coast.  The water is some 20 degrees colder than say, the Gulf of Mexico this time of year.  Anyway, what will be interesting to see if some of the moisture from the hurricane will make its way far enough into California to aid in the fire fighting efforts.  Probably not a whole lot of help but even a little will be of use.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 2PM PDT 083009

JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES…THE EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT…SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM
BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE
…PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS…LIGHT SHEAR…AND
MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER…THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO
BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND
48 HOURS…THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES…TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF
INTENSE HURRICANES…BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY
UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS…A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE
LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS…IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.
THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER…THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE GFS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HURRICANE…SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W   120 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W   125 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W   125 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W   125 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W   115 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W    75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH