Tropical Storm Parma Will Miss Philippines
Update Found HERE
Tropical Storm Ketsana dropped some 17 inches of rain in 12 hours on one of the most populous cities on earth, Manila. The Philippines is not a wealthy country and there are reports that international aid is pouring in. But, as of Sept 29, the big donor has been Japan at about $220,000. The US has pledged $100,000. We have ballplayers who make more than that in one day. I suppose its good to wait and see what is needed but it seems to me that much more will be needed. The US Navy is assisting in search and rescue operations. There are numerous sources for flooding photos from the Philippines. Stories are flying across the wires that the Philippines will get hit by another tropical cyclone. Well, that’s a bit of hyperbole. Yes, there is a tropical storm. Yes, it is expected to become a typhoon. Yes, it is moving in the general direction of the Philippines. But, the latest forecast calls for it to turn and head toward Taiwan. Now, with this course, the northern Philippines can expect unwanted rain in the form of bands passing through, but don’t believe the headlines just yet that imply the Philippines will be struck dead on with another tropical cyclone in a few days.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, there was a lot of shaking going on and frayed nerves. Ever since the tsunami in Thailand, the press has become tuned in, acting as if its a new phenomena. Video and the internet clued in ignorant journalists to what pacific rim folks have known for centuries, that tsunamis can be extremely devastating. While there have not been world wide reports regarding deaths, there was a 5 foot tsunami in American Samoa that occured following a giant quake that has been reported as 7.9, 8.3 and 8.0 and was moderately shallow at 11.2 miles depth. It was known for quite sometime that at least one village was washed away but CBS now reports at least 14 have died on American Samoa. Later reports have the death toll up to 34. Here are the details from the USGS.
Earthquake Details
| Magnitude | 8.0 |
|---|---|
| Date-Time |
|
| Location | 15.558°S, 172.073°W |
| Depth | 18 km (11.2 miles) set by location program |
| Region | SAMOA ISLANDS REGION |
| Distances | 185 km (115 miles) ENE of Hihifo, Tonga 195 km (125 miles) S of APIA, Samoa 705 km (435 miles) NNE of NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga 2700 km (1670 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand |
| Location Uncertainty | horizontal +/- 6.6 km (4.1 miles); depth fixed by location program |
| Parameters | NST=293, Nph=293, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.07 sec, Gp= 32°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8 |
| Source |
|
| Event ID | us2009mdbi |
The USGS also has a summary regarding the plate tectonics involved specifically with the event:
Tectonic Summary
The broad-scale tectonics of the Tonga region are dominated by the relative convergence of the Pacific and Australia plates, with the Pacific plate subducting westward beneath the Australia plate at the Tonga trench. At the latitude of the earthquake of September 29, 2009, the Pacific plate moves westward with respect to the interior of the Australia plate at a velocity of about 86 mm/year. The earthquake occurred near the northern end of a 3,000 km long segment of the Pacific/Australia plate boundary that trends north-northeast.; farther north of the earthquake’s source region, the plate boundary trends northwest and then west. The eastern edge of the broad Australia plate may be viewed as a collection of small plates or microplates that move with respect to each other and with respect to the Pacific plate and the Australia plate interior.
On the basis of currently available location and fault mechanism information, we infer that the September 29 earthquake occurred as a normal fault rupture on or near the outer rise of the subducting Pacific plate.
The broad-scale Australia/Pacific plate boundary is one of the most active earthquake regions in the world. Earthquakes occur on the thrust-fault boundary between the Australia and Pacific plates, within the Pacific plate on both sides of the trench, and within and on the boundaries of the small plates that compose the eastern edge of the overall Australia plate.
Bull Nelson Before Demise
On This Date in History: Union General William “Bull” Nelson got his name from being a big, bearish man who used his physical size to intimidate others. He had initially been an officer in the navy and somehow became a general in the army. But the Bull was butchered in the Galt House in Louisville on this date in 1862. Not only was he murdered by another Union General named Jefferson Davis, he met his demise in the presence of the Governor of Indiana.
NY Illustrated News Captured the Moment
In the summer of 1862, while General Don Carlos Buell was wandering around Tennessee with his Louisville based Army of the Ohio building railroads following the battle of Shiloh, the contingent of men left to defend Louisville was left to one of Buell’s subordinates, Nelson. Confederate General Braxton Bragg began a campaign into Kentucky and the fear was he would get to Louisville before Buell could return. So, while Buell was plodding along back to Louisville, Nelson started putting cannon on the Indiana side of the river so he could shell the city if the Confederates ever invaded. For some reason, Bragg didn’t come to Louisville…probably a blunder…though he was probably fearful of the reception he would get from the populous. So, as Buell’s army trickled back in, Nelson spied Gen. Jeff Davis of Indiana ordering his men to dig in. Bull didn’t think much of that and let Davis know.
Jefferson C Davis Didn't Man Up
Davis wasn’t pleased but instead of manning up and facing Bull, he ran back to Indianapolis and fetched Indiana Governor Oliver Morton and on the evening of September 29 1862 in the stairwell of the Galt House in Louisville, tough guy Davis confronted Nelson. He challenged the powerful Nelson to a duel who, in front of Morton, rebuffed Davis with a scoff and then with the back of his hand when pressed. Nelson went up the stairs and our hero Davis grabbed a pistol, ran up the stairs and shot General Nelson dead. Before he died, Nelson tried to cover all of his bases by getting baptized but that didn’t help with the post mortem scales of justice. See, Buell had Davis arrested but Buell got fired about two months later following the battle of Perryville. With Buell out of the way and the main witness being a good Republican Governor from a Union State, Davis never faced trial and so the murder of a Union General in front of several witnesses was never “solved.” And so ends another tale of courage and justice during the Civil War and it all happened at the Galt House.
No word on whether or not Davis spent the rest of his life looking on golf courses for the real killer.
Louisville NWS Wed AM Forecast Temps
Weather Bottom Line: You can tell that I didn’t look at the stuff too much because I missed a feature that I should have caught. It was a vort lobe swinging around the main low. Very common with winter systems and this is a winter-like system. So, we had wrap around clouds and many people never got to the 60′s. Now, the trofiness associated with the lobe should continue to pinwheel around and we will clear out. I suspsect that the winds will also decrease so I still think overnight lows in the 30′s for the northern 1/3 of the area is reasonable to expect. We had temps in the mid 40′s last night and I think that the low to mid 40′s will be popular. Wednesday will be a better day with plenty of sunshine and the mercury in the mid 60′s. Low 70′s on Thursday and then Friday is a bit in the air. We’ll be in a situation where we have a front approaching that will try to drag up warm moist air before it gets replaced by another round of cooler air. Its possible that we get some strong storms…but I gotta believe that everything has to come together at the right time for that to occur. So, we’ll see how it unfolds.
