Global Warming VS US Snow Storms: No Conclusions Please February 11, 2010

Tough To Convince These Folks About Global Warming

I have heard radio talk show hosts and politicians make all sorts of jokes about Global Warming as much of the United States get slammed by snow storms.  They could be right but, then again, it might be a good idea for them to check out the facts before they speak.  See, our opinions are limited on what we know and for people in the eastern United States, what we know is that it has been colder and snowier than normal which runs counter to what most people consider global warming.  Philadelphia, Washington DC and Baltimore all have not only exceeded their average annual snowfall totals but also have broken annual records.  The midpoint of winter was just passed about 10 days ago and spring time often produces big snowstorms.  Louisville is probably fairly representative of much of the northeastern quadrant of the US if not parts of the South as well in regard to temperatures. 

Nearly 2/3 of US buried under Snow On Feb. 11 2010

According to the National Weather Service’s  National Snow Analysis, the snow cover of the United States as of February 11 was about 63.5% of the nation with an average depth of over 8 inches.  If you look at the Louisville archived climate data, you find that Louisville has been much cooler than average going back to July 2009 when for the first time in recorded history, Louisville did not have a 90 degree day.  Keep in mind, that 3 years ago Louisville moved the official recording site from the National Weather Service to the airport after over 30 years and the airport routinely has higher temperatures.  There were bureaucratic reasons for the change but it generally will skew temperatures warmer and unless a climatologist is aware of the switch, then they might conclude that Louisville is a great example of global warming.  Nevertheless, in spite of the switch, no 90 degree temperatures in July 2009.  every month since then has been colder than average except for September 2009 and November.  In most cases, the degree of colder monthly temperatures has been pretty dramatic, such as the July 2009 departure from normal coming at at negative 5 degrees.  January 2010 featured 13 days of consistent below freezing temperatures but a week long warm up resulted in January’s departure from normal only coming in at negative 2.9 degrees.  So far, February has been some 5-6 degrees below normal with no real warm ups in site for at least 10 days. 

Arctic Sea Ice Growth of Recent Years Slowing?

What is going on is that the long wave pattern has been generally stuck.  There has been a consistent ridge over the Atlantic extending all the way to Greenland.  The result has been the eastern part of the US has been in a generally persistent trough that allows the Arctic air to spill down at times to the Gulf of Mexico and there are not the normal fluxuations.  Now, this is an El Nino year so we expect some variations to the norm.  But, here’s the interesting thing:  According to the Univeristy of Alabama at Huntsville’s data,  January 2010 was the warmest month globally was the warmest January since they began making records using satellite sourcing.    How can this be?  Europe has also been in the grips of a deep freeze and heavy snow all winter.  Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH has never been accused of being a Global Warming chicken little.  He has worked tirelessly to analyze the climate from a non-political view and so he has been the target of much criticism from the left.  So, his January report should not be dismissed by anyone.  Spencer explains that the long wave pattern has been such that the cold pattern has been over land masses while the oceans have largely been dominated by a warmer pattern.  The North Atlantic ridge I described is an example.

More Ice On Pacific Side of Arctic, Less on Atlantic Side

 I have been critical of “pro global warming” news reports based on data from the National Sea and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in recent years that always say that the Arctic ice was the 2nd or 3rd lowest when, in fact, the sea ice at the North Pole has been growing.  Yes, it’s low but it has been coming off its recorded historic lows so the headlines could say that its growing but instead they take the negative angle.  I’ve been tagged derisively as a “denier” when, in fact, I am looking for truth not trying to join a team.  In that spirit, I should note that the ice growth trend seems to be slowing for the moment.  In January, the total ice cover was greater than the lows of 2006 but, it is less than 2009 which is a break in the trend of growth since 2006.   To be sure, one month does not a trend make and nothing can be construed one way or another from this single month.  But, it is interesting in that the Pacific side of the Arctic really has an ice extent beyond the long term average.  But, it’s the Atlantic side that has come in low.  That same ridge that has given Louisville and the rest of the east colder and snowier conditions has resulted in warmer conditions, thus reduced ice growth.

Trend Has Been Down but is it Mother Nature's doing or Man's Fault?

What does all of this mean? I dunno.  And, as I’ve pointed out before, the correct response should be I Don’t Know rather than taking a position one way or another.  Because no one does know.  The earth temperatures have been rising in recent years, but they’ve done so in the past.  Is man contributing to the warmth?  It’s so hard to say especially after revelations that some of the books have been cooked.  If man is the cause can we do anything about it?  And perhaps more importantly, should governments try to do something about it?  Would the amount of difference from any treaties really make enough of a difference to justify the costs and could that money be used better for a fight against disease or world poverty?  I have suggested that perhaps we are neglecting a bigger and real threat, which is the pollution of our oceans,  waterways and water sources.  But, the lesson here is to recognize that the world is a big place and just because you are having a tough winter doesn’t mean that the world is going into an ice age.  It’s the weather…and it changes.

Sunshine should Help reduce the snowpack some next couple of days

NAM 84 hr snow map points the way to Sunday night and Monday

Weather Bottom Line:  Global Warming or not, as you can tell from the data above, Louisville has been colder than the 30 year average every month but two since last summer and most of those anomolies have been fairly significant on the down side.  I don’t see much of a change.  In fact, I still don’t see how we get above freezing Friday and Saturday or even Sunday as some forecasts suggest.  We will be close and if we do get above 32, it wont be for long and unless you are a thermometer, it won’t matter.  I think we’d get more snow loss from sublimation than from actual melting.  And it still looks like we’re going to add to our snow totals.  The models continue to be consistent with bringing a shorwave down thorugh the flow on Saturday bringing snow for us Saturday night through Monday with most data suggesting the best accumulations coming on Monday. Some want to carry flurries and light snow into Tuesday.  The range in snow totals generally are from 3-6 inches.

GFS 120 hours Shows Possible Result of Next Snow Event in Time for President's Day

If you examine the NAM and GFS graphical snow depiction you can see a striking similarity.  The NAM only goes out 84 hours to Sunday evening but you can see what looks like a finger painted line of snow pointing straight to Louisville with about 3 inches or snow pointing to Kentuckiana.  The 84 GFS map looks almost exactly the same but we have the benefit of going out 120 hours on the GFS and you can see how it carries out the scenario.  As with recent storms, there is a tight snowfall gradient from south to north.  What is interesting is that the GFS takes a sharp turn higher in Southern Indiana just north of Louisville with totals up toward 8 inches whereas louisville is in the 4-5 inch range.  As I’ve said for several days, I do think that we will get some decent snow but it’s tough to get 8 inches from a storm coming from the northwest.  Typically, you need a moisture source like the Gulf of Mexico involved or a storm coming from the Southwest to get some really good snow totals.  But, then again, if the shortwave is cold enough aloft it will squeeze whatever moisture  it can find right out.  So, we’ll see.  And I still don’t see how we get above freezing anytime soon.

Remember the Vets! Remember the Melting Polar Ice Caps? November 11, 2008

On This Day, Thank a Veteran:

Original "Armistice Day" Honoree

Too often we run around saying we “support the troops” or are grateful for living in this nation but never thank those who are responsible. November 11, 1919 was proclaimed “Armistice Day” to commemorate the end of the “Great War” now better known as World War I, on November 11, 1918; on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month. It was thought at the time that there would never be a greater

Sir, we salute you.

conflict. By the 1940′s, it was evident that was not the case. In 1920 at the urging of church groups, President Wilson named the nearest Sunday to November 11 “Armistice Sunday.” In 1921, Congress approved the building of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery and designated November 11, 1921 as a Federal holiday for all who participated in the “Great War.” In 1926, Congress called on the President to give an address each Armistice Day and most states in the decade mark the occasion with a holiday.

Now, in 1938 Congress adopted November 11 as a Federal holiday. But, Congress only holds the power to grant Federal employees holidays. It’s up to the states to designate holidays but since most states already have the holiday, the Federal government really followed the states lead in contrast to most other national holidays in which the states follow the Fed’s lead. World War II and Korea come and go so President Eisenhower officially changed the name from Armistice Day to Veterans Day.

It Doesn't Take Much Effort

For some reason, Congress in 1968 messed with the tradition. I don’t know if they were caught up in the turbulent 60′s or what but they decided to make the 4th Monday in October Veterans Day, taking effect in 1971. All the states moved their holidays except for Mississippi and South Dakota. By 1975, the majority of the states had moved it back to the original November 11. The Federal Government capitulated and changed the Federal holiday back, beginning with November 11, 1978. Not only was the day considered sacred at its inception, it somehow held that same position later in the 20th century because when the government tried to change it, the citizens through the state legislatures, basically told the Feds to shove off and returned it to its proper place. This is not Memorial Day, but if you choose to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice for this nation, then please do so. But, Veterans Day to me is for the living…so if you don’t go to a ceremony or church service today, take the time to thank a veteran. I do it everytime I meet someone who served. Like Mother’s Day, I don’t just tell my mother that I love her on Mother’s Day. In any event, it’s not hard, just reach out your hand and say “thank you.” They earned it.

Rain Total Through Thursday Evening

Wet Week Upon Us: A system is ejecting very quickly out of the southern plains and will be spreading moisture all over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday through Wednesday. Thursday, it comes to an end before a strong cold front comes through Friday morning. Look for clouds and cold conditions over the weekend. It’s not totally out of the question that we may get a few insignificant snowflakes on Sunday morning.

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for October 2008 was 8.40 million square kilometers (3.24 million square miles) The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 average extent for October. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole

What About the Warmer than Average Winter and the Melting Arctic Ice Cap? Now, this is still the autumn and a few cold days does not a season make….but remember a few days ago I posted that the outlook was for a warmer than average winter in our area. I did mention that it was a 40%-50% chance. We’ll see. Also, do you remember my hooting about the headlines that claimed that the Arctic Ice might melt away completely in 2008? Turns out the writer was either stupid, looking for headlines or had an agenda because that is not what the researchers said. One guy said it was possible but no one forecast that. They had kids crying for polar bears and Santa Claus. Well, as it turns out, the ice over the Arctic actually increased rather significantly this summer. But, instead of saying that the ice increased, the headlines said that it was the second smallest amount of Arctic Ice on record, which was true. But saying that would have made the previous headlines look foolish and also perhaps make eyebrows raise about Global Warming.

Well, now it seems that the summer low of September 14 was about 1.74 million square miles. By October 31, the ice covered some 3.5 million square miles. In 6 weeks, the sea-ice doubled in size. That marks a near-record ice growth rate. If you see some stories talking about how the temperatures rose quickly in the Arctic in October, make sure that you understand that it’s normal. When ice forms in the ocean, the ocean releases heat into the atmosphere. So, if you have rapid ice formation, you get an increase in air temperatures. What is interesting is that there was more sea-ice at the end of the spring than anticipated. Then, there was a record ice loss in the late summer followed by a near record ice growth in the early fall. The National Snow and Ice Center (Full Monthly NSIC Report) concludes its monthly report by saying that what we are seeing has never been observed before. I think it’s safe to say that the IPCC computers didn’t predict this and shows what I have been saying all along. We don’t know enough to be making proclamations. Al Gore had no business saying that “the debate is over.” That is utter nonsense. We need, as humans, to show some humility and say that we don’t know everything and in the big scheme of things, probably don’t know much. It will be interesting to see how the winter shakes out for us weather wise and for the polar bears in the Arctic.