Apollo 11 Mission Successful Conclusion Due to Alert Weatherman
July 21, 2010

Armstrong and Aldrin ascend from the moon to rendevous with Columbia with location of splashdown in doubt

Liftoff from Moon (LM 17)

Liftoff from Moon (LM 17)

On This Date in History:  Yesterday was the 41st anniversary of the 5th NASA mission of the Apollo program designated as Apollo 11 landing on the moon.  It stands as one of the monumental achievements of the 20th century and perhaps the greatest endeavor of human history.  It was quite a trick, because, even though it worked out on paper, it had never been done before.   Any engineer will tell you that something working on paper is not the same as actually accomplishing a project.  So, they made it to the moon but, like the landing, no one had ever taken off from the moon either; the challenge of safely returning the men from the moon remained.  At 1:54pm EDT on this date in 1969, The Lunar Module Eagle successfully lifted off from the moon.  Astronauts Neil A. Armstrong and Edwin E. ”Buzz” Aldrin, Jr. left behind a plaque,  prominently signed by President Nixon,  that read “we came in peace for all mankind.”  They had spent 21 hours and 37 minutes on the lunar surface and as they prepared for their voyage home, one of their backpacks broke the switch that controlled their module’s ascent from the lunar surface. Oops. Yankee ingenuity came into play and the astronauts showed a zero-gravity pen into the broken switch. Obviously, the make-shift repair worked because they were able to flip the switch and return safely. Had it not been for their making use of what they had, they would have been marooned. Previously, when they landed on the Sea of Tranquility, the Eagle had but a few precious seconds of fuel remaining, perhaps as little as one second. Had Armstrong not set down when he did,  Astronaut Michael Collins, the commander of the Command Module Columbia in orbit around the moon, may have come home alone.

Plaque Left on Moon

Plaque Left on Moon

 Armstrong and Aldrin not only placed the plaque on the moon, but they also left behind a piece of the Wright Flyer flown at Kitty Hawk by the Wright Brothers, a disc with messages from 73 VIP’s on earth and the mission patch from Apollo I honoring astronauts Gus GrissomRoger Chaffee and Ed White who had died when a fire swept through their Apollo I capsule just a couple of years before.  As a nod toward detente, the memorial also recognized the deaths of two Soviet cosmonauts. When the astronauts of Apollo 11 splashed down in the Pacific on July 24, 1969 more questions remained. Initially, there was an issue with the capsule inverted in the ocean.  I remember that because no one was able to communicate with them until they got the Columbia in an upright position.  For a few minutes, it was a little dicey.  After that there was a larger issue.   Since no one had ever been to the moon, there was concern that they may have picked up some bugs…which is odd since it is unlikely that anything could live in space. While no pathogens were ever discovered, all precautions were taken and Armstrong, Aldrin and  Collins were whisked away from the deck of the USS Hornet wearing special protective masks. They were taken to a silver camper on one of the decks below in which they were to reside for a 21 day quarantine period. There were no handshakes and no hugs. A man followed behind them with a can of bug spray as they walked from the helicopter to the special quarantine location.

Bad Weather Could Have Foiled Splashdown

Bad Weather Could Have Foiled Splashdown

All of this may not have come to pass though and there may have been another disaster. See, there was bad weather of which many people were not aware…or weren’t supposed to know about it. The Americans had a special Cold-War era spy program called Corona which was part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program.  Part of the DMSP operation involved the placement of satellites in geosycnrous orbit around the world in what was said to be a weather reconnasaince mission. In reality, it was a spying program that was not declassified until 1995.  When the program was declassified, it was revealed that Capt. Hank Brandi had received a medal of commodation for saving the Apollo 11 astronauts. He had seen the data from the spy satellites and noted that powerful thunderstorms would be in the landing area.   Remember, the first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in August 1969, so the assets we take for granted today simply were not on place when the Apollo 11 astronauts took flight; fortunately though, there was Corona.  Had Columbia splashed down in the throes of such a thunderstorm complex,  the parachutes from the capsule would get ripped to shreds and the astronauts would plunge into the ocean to their deaths. Brandi risked his career and the integrity of the Corona program by sharing the information with other officials who eventually altered the landing zone, which was not an easy thing to do, and the mission was saved.

Weather Bottom Line:  I had mentioned a few days ago that a frontal boundary would be stuck in our area as it washed out. That has been the focus for disturbances wandering thorugh the flow along the boundary; Hence, we’ve had periodic bouts with storms.  So far, the models have not been great at picking up the disturbances or, when they do, properly track the forecast progress.  That’s not too unusual.  You really have to just look at  the radar and see what is going on in most cases.  I didn’t see too much out west on Wednesday morning.  Doesn’t mean that something can’t bubble up but it does mean that there weren’t any major features.  I think we’ll have one more day of this with the ridge over  the Southeast expanding northward for Friday and Saturday, elevating temperatures and decreasing rain chances.  By Saturday night and Sunday, the ridge breaks down a bit as another front approaches which should increase the probability.  After that, if the front does indeed come through early next week, then we should see a reduction in the heat and humidity for a little while.

Apollo 11 May Have Ended in Disaster if not for a Weatherman; Invest 97L Still There
July 21, 2009

Invest 97L surviving despite crappy conditions

Invest 97L surviving despite crappy conditions

Liftoff from Moon (LM 17)

Liftoff from Moon (LM 17)

We’ve had the hoopla of the 40th annivesary of the Apollo 11 landing on the moon.  It was a tough trick and had never been done before.  But, no one had ever taken off from the moon either.  They did so at 1:54pm EDT on this date in 1969.  They left behind a plaque, naturally prominently signed by President Nixon, that read “we came in peace for all mankind.”   They spent 21 hours and 37 minutes on the lunar surface and as they prepared for their voyage home, one of their backpacks broke the switch that controlled their module’s ascent from the lunar surface.   Oops.  Yankee ingenuity came into play and the astronauts showed a zero-gravity pen into the broken switch.  Obviously, the make-shift repair worked because they were able to flip the switch and return safely.  Had it not been for their making use of what they had, they would have been marooned.  Previously, when they landed there was only 1 second of fuel left.  Had Armstrong not set down when he did, Michael Collins may have come home alone.

Plaque Left on Moon

Plaque Left on Moon

Edwin E (Buzz) Aldrin and Neil Armstrong left behind a piece of the Wright Flyer flown at Kitty Hawk by the Wright Brothers, a disc with messages from 73 VIP’s on earth and a memorial honoring astronauts Grissom, Chaffey and White who had died when a fire swept through their Apollo I capsule.  As a nod toward detente, the memorial also recognized the deaths of two Soviet cosmonauts.  When they splashed down on July 24, 1969 more questions remained.  Since no one had ever been to the moon, there was concern that they may have picked up some bugs…which is odd since it is unlikely that anything could live in space.  But, all precautions were taken and Armstrong, Aldrin and Columbia pilot Michael Collins were whisked away from the deck of the USS Hornet wearing special protective masks. They were taken to this silver camper on one of the decks below in which they were to reside for a 21 day quarantine period.  There were no handshakes and no hugs.  A man followed behind them with a can of bug spray as they walked from the helicopter to the special quarantine location. 

Bad Weather Could Have Foiled Splashdown

Bad Weather Could Have Foiled Splashdown

All of this may not have come to pass though and there may have been another disaster.  See, there was bad weather but no one really knew about it…or weren’t supposed to know about it.  The Americans had a special cold-war era spy program called Corona which was part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program.  Satellites were placed all around the world in what was said to be a weather reconnasaince mission.   In reality, it was a spying program.  It was not declassified until 1995.  At that time, it was revealed that Capt. Hank Brandi had received a medal of commodation for saving the Apollo 11 astronauts.  He had seen the data from the spy satellites and noted that a storm would be in the landing area, the parachutes from the capsule would get ripped to shreds and the astronauts would plunge into the ocean to their deaths.  Brandi risked his career and the integrity of the Corona program by sharing the information with other officials who eventually altered the landing zone, which was not an easy thing to do, and the mission was saved.

Wednesday Morning

Wednesday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  Today should be fine though will will see an increase in clouds late in the day as a storm system gathers itself together to our Southwest.  The storm center should be up to around Memphis by Wednesday morning with a cold front extending south to the Gulf Coast and a warm from to its east.  Rain chances will start to go up tonight and carry through much of Wednesday.  Severe chances seem limited though I would not be surprised if there were elevated thunderstorms, particularly to our south.  Then the low will move northeast almost over the top of us before exiting early Thursday to the northeast.  Aside from the rain, I think the most significant thing about this is that our relatively cool conditions will get another shot in the arm once the low passes and high pressure builds in again giving us a northerly component to the flow.

Invest 97L Spaghetti Model 12Z 07.21.09

Invest 97L Spaghetti Model 12Z 07.21.09

Invest 97L is still out there.  Nothing much new to report.  The satellite imagery from this morning indicates a blow up of convection but the upper level winds continue to be rather hostile to development.  The thing to watch for with this guy is its consistency.  The wind fields will at some point become more favorable.  When that happens, if it has remained as a viable feature, then the potential for development will be there.  That is a big IF.  Even if it does, my guess is that with the long wave trof expected to remain over the eastern US, it would probably pick up the system and take it north and then northeast, perhaps even avoiding the US mainland all together.  The latest model runs however still had a couple trying to sneak it under the ridge and into the Gulf.   If this guy survives and if this guy doesn’t move too much, then perhaps that will eventually happen.  So many IF’s..this is not a slam dunk situation for development by any means.

97L Spaghetti Intensity graph

97L Spaghetti Intensity graph

Eight models are showing up in the spaghetti run with two keeping it below tropical storm status and one making it a minimal hurricane.  The others are all making Invest 97L a tropical storm.  Many of the runs are coming in exactly like the scenario that I laid out, which is the eastern trof picking up the storm and taking it east of the US.  That makes sense.  Development looks to be problematic given the necessary interaction with land (Cuba) in that scenario.  The tracks into the Gulf seem to be the outlyers and seem using conventional wisdom to be a little tough to verify.  This guy really will have a tough time becoming a problem, but again, its the only show in town.

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