President Obama’s Speech and History. The “other” Paul Revere. Air France Crash Weather Analysis June 4, 2009

President Greeted Warmly in Cairo

 Airbus Crash: First off, I want to start off with a very compelling analysis of the weather conditions and the possible relation to the potential cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447.  This link from Anthony Watts is elaborate, but still should be clear to even novice individuals.

President Obama’s Speech in Cairo: 

President Obama gave a speech at Cairo University in which he said the following: 

  “It was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the order of algebra, our magnetic compass and tools of navigation, our mastery of pens and printing, our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires, timeless poetry and cherished music, elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation. And throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality.”

 
The origin of Islam as a religion seems to go back to Muhammad in the early 7th century.  However, since Islam claims to be based on all previous prophets, then it is argued that the religion actually goes back to the beginning of man. There apparently was a schism in Islam following the death of Muhammad.  I am not an Islamic expert, but this is how I understand it.  Nevertheless, here is what my sources cite as the origins of historical items mentioned by the President: 

Euclid

Al-Khwarizmi: Greatest Mathematician of his time?

Origin of Algebra:

 Most Americans claim it is the Greeks, specifically pointing to Euclid, as insinuates a University of Hawaii professor. However, at Ball State, a professor indeed points to  Al-Khwarizmi, who was from Baghdad in the 8th and 9th centuries. Algebra as we know it was probably a developmental thing with no one individual being able to claim the title of “father of algebra.”  This historical outline indicates it was many other people in other civilizations could make the same claim. civilizations that contributed.  While it does not mention Al-Khwarizmi, it does mention the work of Brahmagupta, who was from India and lived just prior to Al-Khwarizmi.  It indicates that the work of Brahmagupta was translated into Arabic and it would make sense then that Al-Khwarizmi built on the work of the Indian mathematician.  So, someone who was probably Muslim did indeed play a part in the development of Algebra, but many

Which Way?

 The Magnetic Compass:  The magnetic compass was invented by the Chinese.  It is unclear when it was used for navigation.  This site claims that it was brought to Europe from China by Arab traders.  Other sources say that the earliest writings of the use of the compass for navigation was by the Europeans in the 12th century and the earliest known written account by an Arab was in the 13th century and he makes reference to having seen someone 40 years earlier using the device. 

Pens:this site claims the first use of an ink pen was in Egypt in the 10th century. Egypt became Islamic with the “Islamic Conquer of Egypt in 642 AD”

Printing:The Iran Chamber Society dates printing in Iran to the 17th Century. The first movable type printing press is generally known to be Gutenberg’s printing press in 1440.  There is some evidence that there was an earlier version in China.  The State University of New York at Suffolk claims that block printing also goes to Asia.

 Arches:This encyclopedia reference puts the use of arches in many cultures but its earliest reference is in Ancient Babylon in 4000BC.  Keep in mind, this was well before Muhammad was even born.  That seems to be a leap that arches were born from an Islamic culture when Islam wasn’t even established yet.  That would be like saying the Indians were Christian because many became so later.  But, keep in mind, the President did not say that arches were invented by Muslims.

Arches Used But Not Invented by Romans

Understanding of disease spread-this seems impossible to nail down.  Sorta like “jobs created or saved”

 

 Overall, I’d give the President a C+.  Some items of mention are largely not known by Americans but others are either wrong or really squishy.

Never Heard of Jack Jouett? He Saved Thomas Jefferson With a Daring Ride

On This Date In History:  Everyone knows about Paul Revere’s ride with him crying out “the British are coming” and the Old North Church “one if by land, two if by sea.”  But what about Jack Jouett?  He may have done as much or more to save the Revolution on June 4, 1781.

The Virginia Assembly was convening in Charlottesville, Va.  Jouett was a captain in the Virginia Militia and the 27-year-old was hanging around the Cuckoo Tavern in Louisa County.  There he saw part of the 250 Redcoats whom he found out were on their way to Charlottesville to capture the Assembly…including Thomas Jefferson.  Jouett took off into the night and rode 40 miles through dense wilderness that was dangerous by day and possibly deadly by night.  Unlike Revere, he didn’t travel by nice well-traveled roads.  It’s amazing that he got through because most people couldn’t have made the trip in one day let alone one night.  He arrived at Jefferson’s door at Monticello at dawn, his face swollen and scratched from branches that whacked him to and fro on his harrowing trip.  Nevertheless…when the British arrived, the Assembly was gone, including Jefferson.  So, the lesson may be that if you are trying something clever…stay out of taverns.  And, I think we should start a new rhyme about Jack Jouett.

Now listen Children now sit right back, and hear the tale of Captain Jack

He rode through the night and was slapped in the face

He rescued Jefferson from a dangerous place!

Weather Bottom Line:  As I warned for a few days….It was cool today with highs in the 60′s.  I told you that the models were much cooler than the prevailing forecasts by the TV foofs.  I was in Indy today and it was sunny.  We will get pretty good weather through the weekend.  Cool lows in the 50′s tonight and Friday night.  Wouldn’t be surprised if some folks in the northern part of the viewing area are in the upper 40′s.  Temps will moderate to mid to upper 70′s Friday. Low to mid 80′s on Saturday and mid to upper 80′s on Sunday.

Dr. George Tiller and Grover Cleveland-Any Connection? Arctic Sea-Ice 20 Yr. Time Lapse June 2, 2009

Political Discourse In the Media Has Never Been Civil..Ask Big Daddy Grover

 Global Warming Update:  There is a new time lapse depiction of the Arctic Ice Melt on Youtube.  You need to check it out here.  It’s pretty cool and looks to me as if there are some minima about 15 years ago that are close to those of the past few years.  But the maxima of ice seems to be pretty consistent.  Seems to me that if Global Warming were going full bore, then the maxima of ice would also be affected as noticably.  I bet there is something else afoot.  Anthony Watts explains fully.  Regardless of where you are on the issue, I’d suggest that you click here for an explanation of the potential other factors at work.

Life Aborted

Pro-Life?  The guy who killed the doctor who performed late-term abortions in Kansas, Dr. George Tiller (story), no doubt thought of himself as being pro-life.  Yet, he killed a guy.  No consistency.  Most people who are in the pro-life movement in no way would condone this yet, the actions of one loon is being broad brushed by the opposition to show the justification for their position.  Nonsense.  They are doing the same thing that they object to when their opponents try to say that pro-choice advocates want everyone to get abortions.  This is a tragedy on many levels and it’s getting more and more difficult to find responsible debate in this country on almost any topic.  Alan Colmes says Dr. Tiller was an American Hero.   Operation Rescue founder Randall Terry says that Dr. Tiller was a mass murderer.  But is this any different than the past?  You see…vile political attacks on all subjects have actually gone on for a long time in this country….

Big Daddy Grover Took The Slings and Arrows By Admitting the Charges!

Let us take a look at Big Daddy Grover Cleveland.  Grover Cleveland was the only president to serve two terms as president non-consecutively. So, you will see he is commonly listed as the 22nd and 24th President.  In his first campaign, there was much mud-slinging between he and Republican James G. Blaine.  The accusations against Blaine were pretty pedestrian. They claimed that he took bribes.  Cleveland was accused of fathering a child with a woman to whom he was not married!  Cleveland’s defense? Guilty as charged.  He acknowledged the legitimacy to the question and was promptly elected.  Goes to show, all you need to do is tell the truth! Would he have gotten elected had he denied it?  Would he have gotten elected had the woman had an abortion?

Grover's Bride Best Friends Daughter

Now, Cleveland was an attorney by trade and he had a partner in practice by the name of Oscar Folsom.  Folsom died in 1873 following an unfortunate carriage accident and left his old friend Grover to manage the estate.  And manage he did!  No, he didn’t marry his good friend’s wife…he married his daughter.  Frances Clara Folsom was but 9 years old when her father died but Cleveland made sure that she and her mother’s finances were in order.  After she graduated from Wells College, he proposed marriage.   Frances was not one to make a rush decision so she took a trip to Europe to clear her mind.  When she returned, no doubt some thought she had lost it because the On This Date in 1886, President Grover Cleveland became the first president to be married in the White House to Frances, who was 27 years his junior.  I wonder if when she was growing up she called him “Uncle Grover.” 

Baby Ruth Sold As Natural Energy

They had several children, one of which was Ruth.  The official story by the maker of the “Baby Ruth” candy bar was that it was named after the President’s daughter.  Somehow, a judge sided with the company in a lawsuit it brought against the makers of the “Babe Ruth Home Run Bar” saying the competitor’s name too closely resembled “Baby Ruth.”  Trouble is, Ruth Cleveland died in 1904, the candy company wasn’t in existance until 1916 and the “Baby Ruth” bar wasn’t born until 1921…or about the time that a certain George Herman Ruth was beginning to make a name for himself.  But, the makers stick to the story to this day and, to this day as far as I know, the estate of Babe Ruth has not gotten a dime from the makers of the bar.

00Z June 2 NAM For Thurs Midday Claims Less than 60 degrees!

Weather Bottom Line:  This little hot spell won’t last much longer and the temps close to 90 from Monday and Tuesday will make the highs on Thursday in the low to mid 70′s feel even that much cooler.  I know the forecasts are all calling for a bit warmer temps but I tell you ,the models are suggesting not even 70′s.  I suspect, as most things, the truth will be somewhere in between.  We’ll have a front sliding down and approaching on Wednesday.  There will be plenty of warm moist air to work with so there should be a fair chance for t’storms.  Some modeling data suggests that we get overrunning on the slow moving front so we still have a threat of showers on Wednesday night into early Thursday.  That too should keep a lid on the temperatures…if not rain then some clouds.  Friday back to the mid to upper 70′s.  Look for some people on Thursday and Friday mornings to see temps in the 40′s.

Global Temperatures Cooling For 2008? For Bastille Day? July 14, 2008

Our weather is just great.  Dry air moved in on Sunday. For a time, the heat index was actually below the air temperature by a couple of degrees.  Look for cool nights and warm afternoons for Monday and Tuesday.  We move toward 90 on Wednesday as we get a little more humid and then the rest of the week through the weekend its hot and humid with lows in the 70′s and highs in the low to mid 90′s.  Next rain chance, and it’s not a great one, is on Sunday.

On This Date in History:  The citizens of Paris stormed the Bastille!  The Estates-General was a political body made up of the nobility, the clergy and the commoners.  The commoners were the 3rd Estate.  They petitioned in June 1789 for a new constitution in France and the other estates soon joined in.  Louis XVI went and fired the Finance Minister and the people were afraid that they would be attacked by the military.  So, the stormed the Bastille, which was a fortress that also served as a prison for many political prisoners.  When they got to the gate, the guy in charge let them in, fearing a blood bath.  There were only 7 prisoners in the Bastille and there really weren’t all that many armaments but the occasion has stood as a symbol of French Rebellion that eventually led to Louis and Marie Antoinette losing their heads and eventually to a French Republic..which was promptly usurped by Napoleon Bonaparte, which was good for the US since he sold us much of the United States in the Louisiana Purchase.  France really didn’t finally end up as a Republic until later in the 19th Century.  Nevertheless, July 14 is sort of a French version of the Fourth of July…it also stands as a good back drop for Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities.

Global Temperature Report for June:  Are we getting cooler?

June 2008 Global Temperature map.

In June, according to data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville, The June 2008 Global Temperature Report states that global temperatures were .11C below the 20 year average with the Northern Hemisphere being equal to the average while the Southern Hemisphere was .23C below the 20 year average.

This is interesting.  The general thought is that the trend for the last several months of cooler temperatures has to do with La Nina, but it does give some ammo to those who dispute the global warming argument.  Here’s a breakdown for 2008:

Feb:  Global composite: +.20C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere +.25C; S.Hemisphere-.21C

Mar: Global composite: +.09C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere +.42C; S. Hemisphere -.25C

April: Global composite: +.02C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere +.17C; S. Hemisphere -.14C

May: Global composite: -.18C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere -.05C; S. Hemisphere -.31C.

June: Global Composite: -.11C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere nil; S. Hemisphere -.23C

A couple of things you notice. First is the over all trend seems cooler.  The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer but the last few months it too is cooling somewhat. The Southern Hemisphere has been well below the 20 year average throughout. Further, the tropical zones have been consistently cooler.  March and April were .49C and .53C cooler respectively in the tropics marking the largest cooling departure since a La Nina event in 1989.  And even though La Nina is generally a tropical cooling phenomena, globally, June 2008 was the  coolest since June 1999.

Is this a trend?  Our friend Anthony Watts seems to think so as he posted in January of 2008 that this trend has been going on since January of last year.  He cites four sources in This Post. He also has weighed in on the melting polar ice cap.  Remember I chastised the reporter for highlighting the “50-50 chance” hypothesis and burying other scientists views, as well as other journalistic foibles?  Well, Watts chimes in with photos of the Arctic and claims the melting better start soon if the fears of a watery grave for Santa Claus are to come about.

For whatever reason, it seems clear that the facts show that we have gotten cooler lately and not warmer.  Now, it could be honestly said that a few months does not a trend make and I’m sure that’s what the Al Gore crowd would say.  And it could be the case. But, I don’t think that their computer models predicted this. And they certainly didn’t publicize it if they did.  No, this is an example of how complicated the global climate really is and why a more thorough, honest, depoliticized examination needs to be done instead of people with economic interests making claims based on bad methodologies, incomplete data or with data deliberately altered or omitted.  And then we need to decide if anything can or should be done. 

Everyone likes to jump on the bandwagon, but it’s possible that this bandwagon is being driven by Hector Heathcote instead of Ben Franklin.

Is Climate Data Collection Corrupted? July 5, 2008

Who Are These Guys? We see on TV and read about experts. Often, University Experts. Then we hear whatever it is they pontificate about. But does anyone really know who these people are? Does anyone really scrutinize their work or do we just accept that they did things properly and correctly? Does anyone look to see if there is fraud? Typically, that sort of fact checking is done by other scholars. But, if there is a dissenting voice, will the media give that voice any credence or airtime? Often researchers have students do the dirty work for them…collect the data. There have been a couple of famous historians who were nailed for plagiarism when it was found that work done by others showed up in their books. The two historians I am thinking of got off the hook by claiming the work was done by graduate students on their behalf and the items inadvertantly got into their published work without citation. So…just exactly who is collecting the data for these big global warming studies? Do you really think that the person who writes the analysis and gets credit for the work is actually doing the collecting?

Consider This Regarding Data Collection and Global Warming Statistics:

First off, read the following article from the Sydney World Herald that is about how in 1917 the movement of a weather station by a very short distance resulted in the skewing of data. The old site, which had been in use for a number of years was in a micro-meteorological environment that resulted in much cooler conditions than the new site. The result was a jump in temperatures. In 1972, because the data collection point was inconsistent, it was determined that the data collection point had to be disregarded when making climate studies.

Sydney World Herald-Hot Heads Cause Climate Change

Now, in spite of the fact that the inconsistency of the data made it no good for usage in long term climate studies, Anthony Watts claims that noted “global warming expert”, Dr. James Hanson used the data when making one of his surveys. Hanson has been sounding alarms and been quite popular on Capital Hill and in the press. Watts even provides a graph that he says Hanson presented for Sydney that uses the corrupted data.

Here is Dr. Hanson’s site that provides a whole lot of stuff on him including his recent papers and presentations and even provides his email address. Here is an article that is critical of Hanson for his recent call to Congress that oil company executives should be tried for crimes against humanity which is interesting because I bet Dr. Hanson didn’t ride a bike to the halls of Congress.

Okay, let’s assume that Dr. Hanson and others have indeed used Sydney. So, using one data point that is corrupt will not alter significantly global findings. But, it raises the question about the quality of data collection. I mean, if it is bad at one place, what about others? Could it be that there are a bunch of bad data sets that may corrupt climate studies? Well, I know potentially of one more and it’s right here in Louisville.

We were told that the official site for Louisville was the National Weather Service office, which is staffed 24 hours by professional meteorologists. Well, a few years ago it was determined that NWS guidelines required that all official collection sites be ASOS sites, or automated and the NWS office is not automated; they use real humans who are trained professionals. So, the official site got moved a few miles away to the airport where there is an ASOS and the observers are in the control tower who have other duties besides weather collection. Though not as dramatic as Sydney, the data collected can be quite different between the sites. Here is an example from June 2008.

LOUISVILLE ASOS MONTH: JUNE YEAR: 2008 DPTR FM NORMAL: 4.3 DPTR FM NORMAL:

LOUISVILLE WEATHER OFFICE MONTH: JUNE YEAR: 2008 DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.9

The airport is influenced by lots of concrete and the aircraft engines and heat and such. Officially Louisville was 4.3 degrees warmer than the 30 year average this year. Alarming! But, at the NWS office, Louisville was less than one degree warmer than the 30 year average. in 2004, this would not be startling because the official high would have been less than a degree but today it may sound alarm bells in the global warming community and the reason is only because they moved the site.

Other examples can be found in the recent past. August 2007 was considered to be the hottest of all time in Louisville by a wide margin. Had they used the data at the NWS, like had been done for something close to the past 30 years, then it would have been the 6th warmest. (Climate records) The average temperature in Louisville officially was 8 degrees above average…had this occurred in 2004, Louisville it would have been only 4 degrees warmer than average. The only difference? They moved the site.

I suspect that it will be very difficult for Louisville to break any record lows but will consistently break records for highs simply because the data being collected today is from a site not consistent with previous collection points. The averages that they are comparing today’s collection with were largely made at the National Weather Service.

So…now we have Sydney Australia and Louisville KY as examples of corrupted data points. I had always thought that researchers are pretty thorough and they would know to be consistent and careful with their data collection. However, if Hanson was using Sydney, who is using the new Louisville records. And how many researchers take into account the effects of urbanization? In Houston, the official data collection was moved from Hobby Airport(HOU) to the then new Intercontinental Airport(IAH). Hobby is closer to the ocean and is way warmer than the 25 miles farther north IAH. That made IAH cooler, especially at night. At that time, there was nothing but fields around IAH…now there is all sorts of development around it. how has this altered the data? Are these changes taken into account? I don’t know but Anthony Watts says we have at least one example in which a noted scientist used bad data.

Sites have been moved and surroundings have changed. The question is how many of these sites are there and how many have been used in climate studies? How much data is used when it supports one agenda or another and how much is discarded?

As I had asked before…what is the matter with honesty in reporting and in research. It’s hard to know who to believe these days.  Here’s a related post featuring an admission by the IPCC their data has no quality control.

Friday Funny…Update Pending May 30, 2008

Hey, I  see I’ve had a whole bunch of hits and I suspect that you are more likely looking for stuff on thunderstorm potential.  I can ususally tell when some outlet is hyping our weather by the number of hits I get and where they come from. In this case, not too many are looking for the Nudist Prophet…though it is quite popular.

Look, I’m evaluating the data.   I’ll get back with you later on.  Friday during the day should be fine.  So, I’ll get back with you.  I’ve got to go and visit a friend in the hospital and when I get back, then I’ll deal with it.  That should give you a clue as to my concern at this point.  For me, this situation is more of an academic interest than fear for the safety of my kitty cats and Snow White. But, I’ll bring you up to date soon.

In the meantime…amuse yourself.  This is a post from another blogger named Anthony Watts. who loves going after the Global Warming Debate….it’s about an Ice-Breaker-turned-Arctic Tour Boat that got stuck in the ice while showing a tour group that the ice sheet is disappearing.  I’ve never met this Watts fellow but it’s a pretty good story.

Ice Breaker Stuck In Ice