George Washington Preferred Cincinnatus Over King George May 22, 2010

General Washington Would Not Be King!

Treaty of Paris-From L to R: John Jay, John Adams, Ben Franklin, Henry Laurens, William T. Franklin...the rest were too Chicken to Show up

On this date in History:  In 1782, there was some chaos in the new nation.  There was a shortage of funds to pay foreign debts and Congress was arguing about what to do.  Beyond that, while the British had surrendered at Yorktown, there was no peace treaty with the mother country and many thousands of Royal troops remained in the colonies.  Skirmishes and small battles continued on part of the frontier.  In general, the major fighting for the colonies was over but true independence would not come until November 1783 with the signing of the Treaty of Paris. 

Adams, Franklin and Jefferson collaborated on the Declaration of Independence But Jefferson Had the Mightiest Pen

Now, most of leaders in the colonial independence movement were from the wealthy classes and were, for lack of a better word, the elites.  Many of the founders were well educated in a classical sense and were some of the wealthiest members of society.  John Hancock was a merchant who was recognized by many historians as the richest of all those in America at the time.  General George Washington was not rolling in cash but the value of his land holdings put his net worth near the top of the list.  Thomas Jefferson enjoyed some financial success but his business decisions were not always sound.  But, his knowledge of historical ideas and his ability to master the language gave him a tremendous ability to express ideas and ideals.  John Adams, Benjamin Franklin and Jefferson were charged with writing an independence declaration.  Adams and Franklin pushed Jefferson to actually pen the document because they acknowledged his greater written skills.  The ideals put forth on the Declaration of Independence were not new ideas as they had been espoused in the past, most notably by John Locke.  But, it was the way that Jefferson expressd those ideals that makes the document so remarkable.  Jefferson wrote  that “Bacon, Locke and Newton … I consider them as the three greatest men that have ever lived, without any exception, and as having laid the foundation of those superstructures which have been raised in the Physical and Moral sciences.”  

George Washington considered himself a planter much along the lines of the Roman tradition of Cincinnatus.  Early in the Roman empire, the Senate ruled Rome.  In a time of war, land holders were called to come and form an army to defend the empire.  In such a time of strife, a dictator was appointed and given temporary powers to rule until the end of the conflict.  Cincinnatus was called to duty in 458 BC and successfully led the defense of Rome.  When the conflict was over,  he resigned his position and returned to his farm.  This was the Roman tradition until around the time of Julius Caesar, who never relinquished the lucrative dictator position.  When several senators got together and murdered him, assassination was introduced into the world of politics.  When Augustus came to power, he remained as dictator but returned much of the rule of Rome to the Senate in the tradition of Cincinnatus while he controled the army on the frontier of the empire.  Augustus preferred to be called “principate” or “first citizen” rather than Caesar.    While Jefferson was greatly influenced by Locke, Washington’s demeanor was patterned after Cincinnatus.   

General Washington Resigning His Commission to Congress. He Voluntarily Surrendered Absolute Power, Not Once, But Twice. The Definition of the man, his character and integrity.

In the atmosphere of an unsettled and uncertain condition that prevailed in the colonies between Yorktown in October 1781 and the Treaty of Paris in 1783,  a proposal arose from officers in the army to settle the situation by proclaiming George Washington as King George I.  He had the ability to seize absolute power since he was the well respected leader of the entire Continental Army.  And many colonists put their Faith in his hands.  Yet,  On This Date in 1782, General George Washington refused to become king when he quickly dispatched such notions, writing from his headquarters in Newburgh, NY  that no such occurrence in the war gave him ”…more painful sensations…” than such talk.  He said that viewed such expressions with “abhorrence and reprehend with severity.”   The officer who had written the proposal to the general was admonished when Washington concluded, “if you have any regard for your country, concern for yourself or  posterity, or respect for me, to banish these thoughts from your mind and never communicate, as from yourself, or anyone else, a sentiment of the like nature. “    The word of General Washington was formidable, thus saving the Democracy before it even really got started. The Constitution was adopted in 1787 and the General became the first President in 1789.  Eight years later, for a second time,  General Washington voluntarily gave up power when he refused to be nominated for a third term even though he had been elected twice as President by a unanimous vote of the electoral college.  Not once, but twice, did General Washington refuse the temptation of absolute power.  In the tradition of Cincinnatus, he returned to his farm where he died in 1799. 

Augustus Known as Principate; Washington as Father

While we do not refer to Washington as “first citizen” like Caesar Augustus, he is commonly referred to as the “Father of the Country.”  A 1788 settlement along the Ohio River became a village in 1802 and took the name of Cincinnati in honor of George Washington, though some accounts say that the moniker was derived from The Society of the Cincinnati .  Nevertheless, the Society of the Cincinnati also was formed by Revolutionary War soldiers who wished to promote the virtues of Cincinnatus.  By extension, those were also the  virtues espoused by General Washington who served as the first President General of the Society of Cincinnatus.  And the nation has largely followed the tradition of Cincinnatus as demonstrated by Washington.   The United States has been involved in a number of armed conflicts but, more often than not, does not control territories following the end of hostilities.  More to the point, politicians followed the tradition of Washington and limited themselves to just two terms in office, until Franklin D. Roosevelt broke the tradition by being elected to four consecutive terms in office.  Shortly thereafter, the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution was ratified making the tradition of Washington the law of the land: no one can serve for more than two terms as President of the United States.

From Your Son, Dopey

HAPPY BIRTHDAY DAD

Many of us have our own form of Cincinnatus or George Washington who has influenced their life.  On this date a long long time ago, Robert B. Symon, Sr. was introduced to the world. And the world has been a better place for it. I’m hoping to one day live up to the old man but I haven’t quite gotten there. When I was a kid and he helped coach my football or baseball teams. the other guys on the team always told me that my dad was their favorite coach. They said he was nice. Today, I realize that is true. I think we all wish that we could be a person whom about people would say, “you know, I’m a better person for having known him” or “I’m just a little happier for having known him.”  My dad is one of the few people I know in life that I think that is the case. Come to think of it, Snow White is too. One would think that if I am surrounded and influenced by such people, some of it would rub off on me. Well, there’s always tomorrow.

Weather Bottom Line:  We had a storm that produced some funnel clouds and excitement on Friday evening.   There were also some wind damage reported in a few spots in Southern Indiana and large hail reports in Crawford, Franklin and Anderson counties in Indiana and Kentucky.   Rainfall totals were varied with some places getting around a half inch of rain while others about 3 times that in a short period of time.  It’s all over with now and look for temperatures in the mid to perhaps upper 80′s for the week ahead with rain chances being slim and none.

Kentucky Learns No Decision is the Wrong Decision; You Must Take a Stand May 20, 2010

Houses Divided Fall but What if they Can't Decide to Divide or Not?

Even a Kentucky Civil War Battle Map is Not Too Clear

On This Date in History:  The American Civil War split the nation in two:  North vs. South, Slave State vs. Free State.  Except for one thing.  Not all of the slave states seceded from the Union.  One of those states was Kentucky.  It had been formed from the state of Virginia and, as part of the deal, Kentucky had to be a slave state.  I suppose that there were two reasons for this little clause.  One was that the politicians were generally from the wealthy class and the wealthy minority owned the vast majority of slaves.  Also, slave-holding Virginia’s legislature wanted to double its power.  Because of distance and topography, it was extremely difficult to govern such a large area stretching from the Atlantic Coast to the Ohio River.  So, they almost had to do it.  But, they also knew that citizens in the western part of the state really wanted it too.  So, they agreed to the split and, by making certain that it was a slave state, ensured two more Senators from slave states as well as an additional delegation in the House of Representatives that would be supportive of the “slaveocracy.” 

Sherman Ruled Kentucky Long Enough To Be Called Insane

Well, as previously mentioned, the vast majority of slave-holders in Kentucky were wealthy planters.  The majority of people, however, did not own slaves.  So, that made for a difficult decision for legislators when it came to secession.  Not only were there more people who did not own slaves in the state, but also the Federal government was putting great pressure to have the state of the birth of Abraham Lincoln remain in the Union.  Militarily, it was also an extremely important strategic asset for the North as whomever held Louisville could control the Ohio River at the Falls of the Ohio.  Louisville was also a big rail hub for the Louisville and Nashville Railroad and its connection to the South.  The Kentucky Legislature chose not to choose.  Instead, on this date in 1861, the state of Kentucky took a stand of neutrality.  They would officially not support the North nor the South.  It was a pretty short sighted position as I’m not sure how exactly the state thought that it could keep either side from sending troops through the state.  The fact is, they couldn’t. 

US Grant Rise to Prominence Followed Initial Confederate Invasion into Kentucky

President Lincoln was a very shrewd politician and so instead of forcing the issue, on July 10,1861 he wrote  Inspector General of the Kentucky Militia Simon B Buckner and stated that Federal Troops would not enter the Bluegrass State.  In essence he was taking the high road and probably understood that the Confederacy would not make such a claim but instead try to entice the slave state to join their ranks in some form or fashion.  If that was his thought, then he was correct because on September 4, 1861 Gideon Pillow led his Confederate troops out of Tennessee and into extreme Western Kentucky to set up fortifications at Columbus, KY.  Rebel Major General Leonidis Polk was in control of Arkansas and Missouri and he was the one who ordered Pillow into the state.  The South’s Secretary of War told Polk to withdraw but Confederate President Jefferson Davis over-ruled that order.   In reaction, Union General US Grant moved from Cairo, IL to secure Paducah and Smithfield.   Shortly thereafter, Grant started his climb to prominence with victories and Fort Henry and Fort Donnelson. 

Magoffin Was Stylin' With His Beard But Was Hardly a Trendsetting Governor

Obviously, neutrality was not going to work .  Both sides had violated the neutrality terms but the Confederates had started it.  Really, they had started it well before Pillow’s crossing the border.  See, Kentucky Governor Beriah Magoffin had signed the notice of neutrality but he had sympathies with the Confederacy.  So, he did nothing when Rebel recruiters came into the state.  He also did nothing when war materials were being exported South.  Lincoln, however, refrained from reacting because he was very sensitive to doing anything that might shove Kentucky into the arms of the Confederacy.  But in June elections, Unionists had won 5 of 6 Kentucky Congressional seats.  For some reason, many secessionists in the state decided it was wise to boycott the polls.  Then, in early August, Republicans won majorities in both houses of the Kentucky legislature. 

So, it should not be surprising that two weeks after Pillow moved into Kentucky, the legislature resolved that the Confederate “invaders must be expelled!”  Magoffin resigned and that was the end of neutrality.  The Union Army designated Louisville as the home of the Army of the Ohio. At first, it was under the command of Robert Anderson of Fort Sumter fame but he was in poor health and was replaced by William T. Sherman.  Sherman kept wildly saying he needed more troops and acted so eccentrically that he was seen by many as “insane.”  His career almost came to an end but instead he was transferred under the command of Henry Halleck in St. Louis where Sherman regained his composure and later regained his reputation as the right hand man of General Grant.  Don Carlos Buell took over in Louisville and commanded about 75,000 men.  They built some 15 forts around Louisville as a defense against Confederate invasion. 

When an adversary retreats after a battle, most of the time it's seen as a victory. Buell held the field after Perryville and the Confederates never returned to the state in force. Yet, Buell was fired and many want to say the Battle of Perryville was a Confederate victory.

In 1862, Braxton Bragg led an army of about 45, 000 into Kentucky.  He was convinced that Kentuckians were just waiting to join the Southern Cause.  He moved his troops in an tried to gain recruits.  By the time he got to Mumfordville, it became apparent that was not the case.  Reporter Whitelaw Reid, who later became the editor of the New York Tribune, said that Bragg complained that Kentuckians were “shuffling middlemen” who just sat on the sidelines waiting to see which side would be victorious before making a committment.  So, he tried a political solution by going to Frankfort and holding his own gubnatorial swearing in ceremony.  Perhaps he thought that if the Confederacy swore in a Confederate governor and simply claimed the state that the citizens would follow.  Instead, the ceremony was halted early due to the report of Union cannonfire from a detachment of artillery that was sent from Louisville by Buell.  It was a hot and dry summer and both Buell and Bragg had their men go to Perryville in order to get water from a creek.  A battle ensued with the Confederates inflicting more casualties but the Union holding the ground as overnight Bragg retreated.  Bragg continued to retreat all the way out of the state, never to return.  Buell didn’t follow him and he got fired, never to serve again.

Jeff Davis Monument: No Comparison to Washington

My research revealed a historian who claims that the people of Perryville buried the Union dead and left the Confederates to rot in the hot sun.  Some 25,000 Kentuckians fought for the Confederacy while over 125,000 wore the blue uniform.  Louisville was the home of 75,000 Union troops and was defended by 15 forts against Confederate invasion.  The Kentucky legislature called for the expulsion of Confederate armies.  When given the opportunity to join Bragg’s army, Kentuckians did not respond.  William Clarke Quantrill of “Quantrill’s Raiders” fame died in Louisville after being shot and captured near Smiley, KY.  Confederate Guerilla leader Marcellus Jerome Clarke aka Sue Mundy was executed in Louisville.  Doesn’t sound like much of a Southern state, does it?  Well, after the war, as part of the “Lost Cause” effort in the South, history changed.  Many of Louisville’s elites had been associated with the South and that’s what they wanted to remember.  Louisville, home of the Army of the Ohio, has a Confederate War Memorial.  Jefferson Davis was born in the state but lived in Kentucky for just a few years before he moved to Mississippi. He did return to go to school for a few years but his life’s work was really in Mississippi.   Yet, his statue is in the state capital.  There is also monolith monument to Davis in Fairview, KY that resembles the Washington Memorial.  Not a single Union memorial is in the state.  On April 17, 1885 Louisville led the nation in a birthday celebration of the 63rd year of Ulysses S. Grant.  You can find a plaque commemorating the event on Grant’s tomb but not one word of it is in the 1896 Memorial History of Louisville.  The same is true of the decade long National Industrial Exposition yet, the 5 year Southern Exposition has an entire chapter all to itself.  No…Kentucky said it was neutral but sided with the Union.  It’s history was tied with the North.  I’ve seen a quote that says that “in 1865, Louisville was a Northern City and by 1900 it was a Southern City.”  Most Kentuckians have been raised to think it was always in the South.  Nevertheless, those of us from more southern regions know better. 

No Matter What Party of the Country you Associate Kentucky, It's a Very Interesting and Nice Place to Live

When my friend Kim Stevens, from Muscle Shoals, AL married a young man from Louisville, her family said that they guessed it was okay for her to marry a Yankee.  When Snow White and I were in Savanah, GA and discussing the war between the states with a tour guide, when she found out that we were from Kentucky she dismissed us as being Yankees.   Much of Kentucky gets from 1 to 2 feet of snow each year and annually has at least one night of near zero or below zero temperatures.  Last year, Louisville went through the entire month of July without a single high temperature in the 90′s.  The South?  No…but its not the North either, nor the Midwest or the East.  What makes Kentucky so difficult to pinpoint geographically also makes it difficult to define culturally.  And from a climatological and meterological perspective, its location makes it extremely difficult to categorize and forecast.  Perhaps that is why the state legislature could not make up its mind in 1861.  But, one thing that I think is certain, this conundrum is exactly why I think the state is a wonderful place to live.

Weather Bottom Line:  Thursday evening into Thursday night will most likely produce some pretty good storms with rain totals over an inch.  We don’t need that.  We don’t need severe storms either but most likely we will not see those but its worth keeping an eye on. Some troubling storms with wind and small hail may be on the loose in a couple of areas.  Still looks like we heat up and dry out from the weekend forward.

Douglas MacArthur: Duty, Honor, Country May 12, 2010

General Douglas MacArthur

Douglas MacArthur West Point Cadet

On this Date in History:  Douglas MacArthur was born in Little Rock, Arkansas on January 26, 1880.  He apparently had not done well in school but worked hard at the United States Military Academy and in 1903 graduated at the top of his 93-man West Point class.  As a member of the Army Corps of Engineers he went to the Philippines as a  First Lieutenant before becoming an aide-de-camp to President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906.  During World War I, he was decorated 13 times and had 7 citations for bravery.  In August 1918 he was promoted to Brigadier General and just 90 days later became the youngest division commander in France as he took command of the 42nd Division. 

Captain Douglas MacArthur 1916

After the war, he served as Superintendent of West Point where from 1919 to 1922 he modernized the curriculum and doubled the size of the institution.  Following his time at West Point, he took command of the newly formed Military District of Manila in the Philippines and in 1928 became the President of the United State Olympic Committee.  In 1930 he became the youngest US Army Chief of Staff and strived to modernize the relatively small 135,000 man army.  Up until World War II, the United States had a tradition of only raising a large standing army in time of war.  But, McArthur warned that the rising world tensions were a threat to the United States.  He said, “Pacifism and its bedfellow, Communism, are all about us. Day by day this cancer eats deeper into the body politic.”

Caesar and Ike Make Sure the Vets Get Out of Town

In 1932, World War I veterans marched on Washington demanding their bonus pay from their service in World War I.  The pay was not scheduled to be paid out until later but the veterans were in the need of the money at that time as the country slipped farther into depression.  The military was called out to control the veterans and MacArthur acted with extreme measures.  He had four troops of cavalry with drawn sabres as well as infantry with fixed bayonets supported by tanks to suppress the unrest.  He justified his action against the former soldiers by saying that he feared the United States was on the verge of a Communist revolution.  Also taking part in the actions were future President Dwight D. Eisenhower and future General George S. Patton, Jr.

Pearson Battled MacArthur

As might be expected, a journalist by the name of Drew Pearson wrote scathing articles about MacArthur including charges supported by MacArthur’s ex-wife that his former father-in-law had been instrumental in influencing the decision to promote the general to that of Major General.  MacArthur sued for nearly $2 million and the journalist appeared to be on the ropes when the former Mrs. MacArthur refused to testify.  But, Pearson must have been resourceful because he tracked down a supposed mistress of MacArthur’s who had been sent back to the Philippines.  Pearson acquired a bunch of love letters from Douglas to the woman and, when he presented them to the general, the lawsuit was dropped. 

MacArthur Returned After Much Hardship for US Soldiers Left Behind

President Franklin D. Roosevelt dispatched in 1935 MacArthur to the Philippines to help organize that nation’s defense.  MacArthur retired from the Army but stayed on as an advisor to the Philippines.  As negotiations with the Japanese Empire deteriorated, MacArthur was recalled to active duty by the president and he was charged with mobilizing Philippines defense with a budget of $10 million and a fleet of 100 B-17 bombers.   In October 1941, MacArthur reported that he had 227 aircraft, 135,000 troops and a “tremendously strong offensive and defensive force.”  MacArthur was greatly criticized for not moving his aircraft following Pearl Harbor as on Dec. 8, 1941 the Japanese attacked the Philippines and destroyed about half of his Air Force.  The Japanese invaded and by early 1942, MacArthur had ordered a retreat to Bataan.  On February 22, 1942 MacArthur was ordered to evacuate the Philippines to Australia.  He left behind General Jonathan Wainwright in command of 11,000 troops who managed to hold out against overwhelming forces until May.  Wainwright was forced to surrender but MacArthur had vowed to return.    While in Australia he became the Supreme Allied Commander of the Southwest Pacific and after many battles, Douglas MacArthur returned to the Philippines on October 20, 1944.  Eventually, he accepted the Japanese surrender on the deck of the USS Missouri anchored in Tokyo Bay on September 2, 1945.  He is credited with his leadership in rebuilding post war Japan into a strong democracy and the creation of a booming economic power.

MacArthur's Inchon Strategy Saved South Korea

MacArthur went on to lead the United Nation’s effort in the Korean War.  He had failings and successes.  His bold and daring move to land troops at Inchon on September 15, 1950 turned the tide of what looked to be a hopeless UN effort.  President Truman had told the general to limit the war to the Korean Peninsula as he was fearful of an expanded conflict with the Chinese or perhaps even another global conflict.  But, MacArthur disagreed and pushed the North Koreans so far north that it appeared that he might invade China.  In fact, that is what he favored doing and he began speaking out against the administration.  President Truman removed MacArthur from command in April 1951 and the general returned to actively campaigned against the Democrats in the upcoming election. He backed Republican Senator Robert Taft of Ohio but  General Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in 1952.  Ike  consulted with MacArthur with regard to Korea.  After MacArthur recommended a nuclear attack on the enemy and also to attack China, Eisenhower gave him no role in the administration. 

JFK Notes From Consultation with MacArthur in 1961

In 1961, the retired general took over the reigns of the Remington Rand Corporation and its annual sales of $1.1 Billion.  But, he was in increasingly poor health.  He had several stints in the hospital and he became increasingly frail as he moved into his 80′s. He consulted on two occasions  with President Kennedy following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion.  He was extremely critical of the advice Kennedy was getting from the military and warned the President against a build-up of forces or involvement in Southeast Asia.  He later gave the same advice to President Johnson. 

MacArthur was arguably one of America’s most brilliant generals and also one of its most flawed.  He is often applauded and also criticized.  But, it was a speech he gave near the end of his life on this date in 1962 that perhaps is his most endearing memory.  Much like Ted Williams last hit (home run) or Michael Jordan’s final shot for the Chicago Bulls, General Douglas MacArthur went out in style.  Noting his failing health,  West Point honored MacArthur with the Sylvanus Thayer Award for outstanding service to the nation.  The year before, it had been bestowed upon General Eisenhower.  But, no one recalls the former President’s speech.  It is MacArthur’s speech that still echoes in the halls of West Point and the theme is one that I think many Americans could stand to hear today:  Duty, Honor, Country.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu AM to Fri AM

Thursday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  Wednesday morning we had the remnant of those t’storms that had rumbled out west on Tuesday afternoon and night.  It would appear that the GFS had a better handle on the situation than the other models.  As the heating of the day wore on, those storms moved East of Louisville and dropped some fairly significant rains in some areas that really didn’t need it.  This slow moving big trof continues to trudge eastward slowly.  The boundary is still to our west moving slowly along the front of the trof.  It’s the same story with trying to time impulses moving through the flow.  The GFS illustrates pretty well the situation in that it indicates a whole mess of energy with the warm, moist unstable air.  That means that all it needs is a catalyst to tap into the moisture.  There really isn’t much in the way of veering so the helicity and SWEAT indeces aren’t too impressive for most of the day.  At 11 pm the GFS elevates the SWEAT to 431 which is reasonably high.  The SPC has us in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms as they feel there is not sufficient veering for tornadic activity for most of the day but the atmosphere would certainly support super cells that could produce large hail and wind.  I would say that if we were to get some super cells late and we have dynamics advertised briefly by the GFS then there could be support for tornadic activity as well.  Look, this is tough and it’s not clear cut.  The highest risk should be to our North but it’s worth paying attention to, especially in the afternoon and Thursday night.  If there is thunderstorm activity, I’d tune in to a local tv station to see if there is anything going on like a watch or something.  We may be dealing with scattered activity through the weekend but this Thursday to Friday timeframe is probably going to be the time of greatest risk.

1st Female Pres. Candidate Victoria Woodhull Advocated “Free Love” May 10, 2010

Victoria Woodhull's Legacy?

On This Date In History: This obviously wasn’t Mother’s Day because it wasn’t officially established until 1914. But, this woman was seen by many as the antithesis of motherhood. On this date in 1872 Victoria Woodhull began her campaign for President. Her running mate was abolitionist, former slave and intellectual Frederick Douglass.    At that time, women weren’t even allowed to vote yet, she was running for president. Her platform was as a “free-thinking reformer” and supported free love, abortion, divorce, legalized prostitution and, of course, the women’s right to vote. One of the photos above is a portrait while the other is a cartoon showing her as the Devil. As part of her campaign, she sent out an article congratulating preacher Henry Ward Beecher for having an affair with a married woman in his congregation. But, she chastised him for not advocating the free love that she said he obviously practiced. On election day, she was in jail. The charge was for sending obscene material through the mail in violation of the Comstock Act. The offensive material was the Beecher article. Reports of her personal practices of free love did not help her at the polls. An opponent of hers didn’t learn from her mistake.

Woodhull Covorting With Satan!

Also on the ballot was George Francis Train who ran for President as the self proclaimed “Champion Crank of America.”   He was a millionaire with nothing else to do except to try and break speed records and advocate what he saw as struggles for freedom. Jules Verne is said to have based his novel Around the World In 80 Days on a trip that Train once took. But, Train didn’t count the days he spent in prison in France against his 80 days. He got involved in an attempted revolution and barely escaped a firing squad before he continued his global journey. He later beat his own record by going around the world in 67 1/2 days. No word on if he cheated on that one too.   Neither he nor Woodhull were elected President. In fact, I bet you won’t find them on any 1872 election tally boards.

George Francis Train

But, Train had a penchant for making money because his campaign proved to be a money making venture for him. He charged money for people to hear his speeches and he spoke over 1000 times to more than 2,000,000 people. He may have been the only presidential candidate to make a profit in the venture.  When Woodhull got in trouble, he tried to help her cause by publishing a collection of biblical quotations that he said were much more obscene than anything Woodhull had written.  They slapped the old bracelets on him too and he was whisked off to jail.

Victoria Woodhull and Tennessee Claflin drive the bulls and bears on Wall Street, Evening Telegram, February 18, 1870

Here’s a funny thing about this story. The Equal Rights party platform  was generally that of Ms. Woodhull.  If you care to search you can find numerous links that unravel the whole thing, but rest assured,   it was quite scandalous in 1872.  While it did not specify abortion and divorce, I suppose that Ms. Woodhull extracted that from the calls for protection of women from abuses of men and other forms of what they called equality.  This document supports the contention and inference of the concept of “free love,” divorce and abortion rights.  (note how it says “Children come into this world undesired and unprovided for…”)  It is interesting that they were vehemently against the death penalty but favored abortion.  Anyway, the specifics outlined regarding the platform talk about taxing the rich, a graduated tax, term limits for the President, Vice-President and Senators and the issuing of paper currency.  They also were against any land grants to railroads and thought that disagreements among nations should be settled by a “congress of nations” instead of armed conflict.   

Woodhull for President!

Today, we have a currency backed by the “full faith and credit of the United States,”  the United Nations and a graduated tax scale.  There are increasing calls to tax the rich and movements to try and limit governmental aid to corporations.  Divorce is certainly a part of society and prostitution is legal in parts of Nevada.  The US Supreme Court issued its famous (or infamous) Roe V Wade decision in 1973.  The platform actually went further as it wished to have government regulation of labor and also referred to children and the poor to be seen as “wards of the state” with the government taking responsibility for their care and eduction.  I bet that if you told someone in 1872 that many of the calls of Victoria Woodhull would be legal and/or accepted in 2010, they’d probably fall over. Then again, they’d probably also collapse if you told them that man had walked on the moon, cured any number of diseases and that baseball players were making millions of dollars a year.  I’ve heard a saying that illustrates an aspect of human nature: The people of Venice did nothing about the flooding problem until sewage was coming in their homes.  Perhaps the roots of the Tea Party movement were set long ago.

By the way….US Grant won re-election in the 1872 presidential race.

(Edit: You will find a somewhat militant sounding response below from someone who claims absolutely that it is false that Ms. Woodhull was in favor of abortion.  My source said otherwise without explanation.  The commenter left several quotes from Ms. Woodhull that seems to support the view.  I have examined the quotations and it does appear that Ms. Woodhull believed that abortion was murder.  However, the commenter has left out some key quotes.  For instance from Woodhull’s and Claffin’s Weekly (September 23, 1871: “ Abortion is only a symptom of a more deep-seated disorder of the social state. It cannot be put down by law.”  Also, from the same edition:  “Who proposes to disturb Madame Restel [underground abortion practitioner]? Who really wants that there should be no opportunity to secure an abortion under peculiarly trying circumstances?”  The stance seems a bit at odds with her “abortion is murder” contention.  But, from my analysis, Ms. Woodhull makes the argument that she wished to eradicate the situation caused women to want to have an abortion.  She blaimed the male dominated societal atmosphere.  In the same Sept. 23, 1871 article she concluded that, “Nearly every child born is an unwelcome guest. Abortion is the choice of evils for such women.”  She seemed to be saying the pregnancy was more often than not forced on women and therefore it was unpleasant and left them with a very difficult ordeal.  So, while the commenter is correct that she thought abortion was murder, it does not appear that she wished to make it illegal.  I attempted to contact the commenter by email but the person declined to reply.  She made some comment that the statement of her support for abortion was “utterly false” and then added a link to “someone who has actually done their homework.”  It is feministforlife.org.  When researching history, it is important to note exactly who is doing the research as they may have an agenda.  Often, when one has a point of view that they wish to push on any given subject, they may play up some positions and low key others to such an extent that they omit anything that may detract from the thesis.  I went to the primary source and I believe that my secondary source was justified in the position that Woodhull was in favor of abortion in the sense that she did not want to criminalize it.  There is no getting around the fact though, that on a number of occasions, she did equate it to murder.  BTW…the commentor also failed to point out that Ms. Woodhull’s publication was the first in the US to publish Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto in 1872.  My guess is that little fact may sway a reader’s sympathies, eh?   Nor  was it pointed out that Woodhull later married a rich UK Banker, John B. Martin, after which she apparently disavowed her previous position on free love, though I’m not sure if that included an alteration of her abortion view.    See…the truth is not always the whole truth. If you want more details, you need to secure a complete historiography; not just this blog, websites or single sources. 

SPC Severe Risk Tuesday AM to Wednesday AM

SPC Severe Probability Tuesday AM to Wed. AM

Weather Bottom Line:  This week will prove quite a challenge.  First off there will a warm front coming back through our area.  The NAM wants to bring some showers around here by midnight and then cuts it off by day break but then reintroduces showers late morning.  The RUC has rain from midnight to 5AM but the data ends there.  The GFS brings rain by about 3 AM and then carries it through the morning.  None of of the models advertises a rain total of much significance.  Now, I don’t see that the NAM severe parameters really going bananas while it calls for rain late Tuesday into Wednesday but the energy fields do rise markedly, which makes sense because the warm front comes through.  Early Wednesday morning, the dynamic fields start getting into the interesting territory.  Now, the GFS is similiar except that it has rain along with the rising dyanmic parameters late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  After that, the models both bring rain at varying times.

Tuesday Evening

The issue down the line will be periodic bits of energy being tossed out through the flow throughout the week.  That is what is prompting week-long forecasts having a chance of rain every day.  The truth is, no one can really time the impulses nor the exact route; so put in a chance of rain to CYA.  It is probable for rain as the warm front comes through on Tuesday.  The SPC has varying reasons for concern regarding strong storms on Tuesday so they put in a slight risk for our area but it doesn’t really have anything to hang your hat on conclusively except that a cold front is approachin.  The SPC does not mention late night Tuesday night but the GFS data supports that possibility as the cold front approaches, perhaps a shade behind the NAM. Either way, the slight risk area goes from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning so the GFS solution is still covered.  If the cold front does come through, it won’t be for long as it will retreat rapidly back to the north in advance of another system coming through the flow.

Bottom line is that we get warmer and more humid by Tuesday afternoon through Friday at least with rain chances popping up now and then.  We’ll have to see how the severe potential actually shakes out.

Mother’s Day Was Not Originally a Hallmark Moment May 9, 2010

Nothing Says "Mom" Better than Whistler's Mother. What Was the Post Office Thinking?

On This Date in History: I had always assumed that Mother’s Day was invented by some card company like Hallmark.  I was wrong.  It was just hijacked by the entreprenuerial spirit of America!   There’s all sorts of stuff about it going back to the early church and then going on through the 17th century in Europe when it was still associated with the church. It had been to celebrate Mother Mary, then the Mother Church with Mothering Sunday.   But when the folks came across the pond to America, the colonists were too busy working to do such things and it died out.

Mother of Mother's Day

Then along came the Civil War and a woman named Anne Marie Reeves Jarvis.  She started “Mother’s Friendship Day” as a way to improve sanitation in 1858. During the Civil War she continued the practice by organizing women on both sides to try and improve the nasty situation. Afterward, she organized Mother’s Friendship Clubs to teach women the basics of nursing and sanitation. She also took the opportunity to bring reconciliation to the nation following the war.  Anne died in 1905 and her daughter Anna missed her greatly. Anna felt that children didn’t appreciate their mother’s enough while they were alive. So, in 1907, she decided to start a day to honor mothers.  She began a letter writing campaign to ministers and such and in 1908, the first Mother’s Day service was held in honor of Anne Marie Jarvis in Grafton, West Virginia, where she went to church for 20 years and also at her church in Philadelphia, the city where Anne died.

Wilson With Wife and Daughters Mother's Day 1912

It caught on and in 1912 The International Mother’s Day Association had come into being and on this date in 1914, a Presidential Proclamation by Woodrow Wilson designated the second Sunday of May as Mother’s Day.   But Anna Jarvis’ happiness didn’t last long.  In just a few short years, people started giving cards and flowers and presents and all sorts of things.  It became more secular than what Miss Jarivs had envisioned. Commericialization had taken over and it continues today as Mother’s Day is one of the most financially successful days on the calendar. Anna Jarvis died as a cranky old woman who fought to oppose Mother’s Day. I guess she created a monster like Frankenstein.   But not as much as the Postal Service.

President Roosevelt's Original Mother's Day Stamp Design

Yes indeed…in 1934 the US Postal Service decided to get into the act and make a stamp to commemorate Mother’s Day. And what did they pick to commemorate the day to honor the wholesome beauty of Motherhood? The portrait of James Abbott McNeill Whistler’s mother! You look at it and try to figure out what they were thinking. It sure wasn’t “Happy Mother’s Day.” As it turns out, the inspiration came from none other than President Franklin
D. Roosevelt.  FDR had been presented the idea by Mrs. H. H. McCluer of Kansas City who was the past president of a group called the American War Mothers.  President Roosevelt had been devoted to his own mother so he heartily accepted the proposal and sent a sketch of the stamp that he envisioned to Postmaster General James A. Farley.  Farley made a few modifications and the stamp was issued on May 2, 1934.

Original Mother's Day Stamp 1934

As for Hallmark, it is celebrating its 100th birthday this year.  Joyce C. Hall was given the name “Joyce” because he had the misfortune of being born in David, Nebraska on the day that a Methodist bishop named Isaac W. Joyce was in town and his parents must have been inspired.  As a teenager, J.C. Hall went into business with his two older brothers selling picture postcards.   In 1910 at the age of 18, he dropped out of school and went to Kansas City and started selling postcards to drugstores, gift shops and bookstores before opening a specialty shop. 

Editorial Cartoon Made Fun of FDR's Stamp. Bet that Newspaper Received a lot of hatemail using the special stamp

 But, in a case of misfortune turning to a catalyst for success, a fire swept through the store.  The brothers then got a loan and decided to purchase an engraving firm that they had done business with in the past.  While Mother’s Day was just getting started around that time and no doubt did Hallmark participate in the commercialization of the “Holy Day” invented by Anna Jarvis, the company was not built on the hallowed day’s back.  Instead, the Hallmark company history says that the Hall brothers originally gained success with Christmas and Valentine’s cards.  But, let’s think about this for a moment. All about the same time:  Anna Jarvis comes up with Mother’s Day; President Wilson recognizes it nationally; a fire destroys the Hall brother’s store and they start making specialty cards; Mother’s Day becomes so commercialized that Anna Jarvis works to oppose the very thing she created.    I think that perhaps Miss Jarvis did not buy any Hallmark cards.

Weather Bottom Line:  Winds on Friday gusted to 41 mph at the Louisville International Airport and Saturday was a blustery day as well.  Difference was that the wind was out of the West all day Saturday as opposed to the South-Southwest on Friday. In between there was a front and it worked out pretty much as I had expected.  There were a few lingering thunderstorms that dropped about a quarter to a third of an inch of rain but many many people were in between those spots and got just a few hundreths of an inch.  We should de-couple overnight and the winds will die down.  Should that come about, we’ll see several locations with a Mother’s Day morning start in the upper 30′s.   Look for a high in the low to perhaps mid 60′s.  Warm up begins after that.  There will be several pieces of energy breaking off of a storm system out West that will bring several opportunities for t’storms after the first of next week. It’s possible that some of those opportunities may present some strong storms but it’s too far out to really tell right now.  The biggest stuff will most likely be in the plains.  But, we’ll see.

Woodrow Wilson: Did He Know The Lusitania Carried Munitions? May 7, 2010

RMS Lusitania

Lusitania Sank Awfully Fast

On This Date in History: On June 28, 1914 Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Yugoslav nationalist Gavrilo Princip. The Habsburg Austria-Hungarian government set it’s eyes on Serbia. Now, in his farewell address President George Washington warned the United States against getting involved in entangling treaties with foreign governments when he left office. World War I is a great example of his wisdom because European nations had mutual defense agreements among one another. An attack on Serbia meant an attack on Russia. Germany had previously announced support for Austria. England had vowed support for Russia, the French for the Russians and so forth. Basically, Europe chose up sides in a Baltic conflict which is why there was such a rush during the Clinton Administration to stem the conflict in that region in the 1990′s before it expanded.

Europe Gets It On in 1914

Toward the end of 1914, hostilities opened up with Germany invading Belgium, Luxemborg and France while Austria-Hungary was invading Serbia and Russia attacked Prussia. In the meantime, perhaps keeping to the wisdom of General Washington, the United States decided to sit this one out. While all parties in Europe thought it would be a short war, Americans thought it was “over there” and not their business. America though had experienced strengthening ties with the mother country, England. While America declared neutrality, most Americans privately sided with England and some press reports about supposed attrocities by the Germans did not help change public opinion. Nevertheless, President Woodrow Wilson took a strong, public and vocal stance regarding the neutrality of the United States and expected all parties to recognize the US as such.

Coded and Deciphered Version of Zimmerman Telegram

The Germans, however, were skeptical of the United States. Not only did they think that the true sympathy of the Americans was on the side of the Allies, but they suspected that Uncle Sam was providing materials to support the Allied war effort. Though it was slightly smaller than the RMS Titanic had been, the RMS Lusitania was still one of the largest ocean liners in the world at the time. Between 1907 and 1915, the Lusitania made 202 transatlantic crossings. On this date in 1915, the German submarine U-20 sank the RMS Lusitania . All British shipping was ordered to travel at full speed and in a zig zag pattern as a precaution against German U-Boat activity. Germany had already declared unrestricted submarine warfare against all shipping in the Atlantic providing munitions or aid toward the allied effort in the war. Theorthetically, the Lustitania should have been exempt from submarine attack as it was a luxury passenger liner and it was filled with civilians.

Why Was a Royal Navy Officer Like Captain Turner at the helm of the civlian RMS Lusitania?

On May 7, 1915 the Lusitiania ran into some thick fog so Captain William Thomas Turner slowed the ship and stopped zig zagging. It was an easy shot for the U-Boat. Some 1200 went down with the ship including 128 Americans. The attack resulted in a letter of protest from President Woodrow Wilson. The Germans claimed the ship was carrying munitions. The US denied the charge and the American public grew quite angry as passions against the Germans grew. The sneak attack on perhaps the most luxurious passenger liner at the time created the image of the ruthlessness of the Germans. Nevertheless, the United States did not enter the war following the sinking. Nearly two years later, America learned of the Zimmerman Telegram (the British coincidentally provided it to the Americans) in which the Germans proposed that Mexcio attack the US should the Americans enter the war. The sinking of the Lusitania primed the pump but the Zimmerman Telegram was the ultimate catalyst that led to the US entry into the Great War.

Here’s the rub. The Germans were right. The Lusitania was carrying munitions.

Captain Walther Schwieger: Justified in Sinking Lusitania?

When the U-20 slammed it’s torpedo into the starboard side of the RMS Lusitania, almost immediately a secondary explosion rocked the ship. The torpedo explosion probably wouldn’t have sunk the ship but the second explosion caused a huge gash in the hull and the great liner sank in just 18 minutes. The story that was told to the American public was that the Germans fired at least two torpedoes. That was false. What the people did not know was that the passenger liner was indeed carrying a deadly cargo  as a manifest shows tons of munitions and supplies for the war effort. As it turns out, the British had regularly used passenger ships as supply transports, disguised warships as merchant ships, armed merchant ships and utilized Q-ships which were disguised military ships that flew a neutral country’s flag as cover. The Lusitania, along with its sister ship Mauritania, had intially been taken out of service as part of the war effort before it returned to regular service. And, both the Lusitania and Mauritania were listed in the British Naval Packet Book and Jane’s Fighting Ships as armed merchantmen. No wonder U-20 Captain Walther Schwieger went ahead and attacked. Schwieger later told of the attack:

A U-20 Class German U-Boat

“When the steamer was two miles away it changed its course. I had no hope
now, even if we hurried at our best speed, of getting near enough to attack her…. I saw the steamer change her course again. She was coming directly at us. She could not have steered a more perfect course if she had deliberately tried to give us a dead shot….I had already shot away my best torpedoes and had left only two bronze ones…not so good. The steamer was four hundred yards away when I gave an order to fire. The torpedo hit, and there was a rather small detonation and, then after, instantly a much heavier one. The pilot was beside me. I told him to have a look at close range. He put his eye to the periscope and after a brief scrutiny yelled: ‘My God, it’s the Lusitania.’”

Lusitania Sinking Did Not Lead Directly to US Entrance in World War I

The Lusitania’s Captain Turner was an officer of the Royal Navy, not the Cunard Line. On April 24, 1915 the German government had taken out ads in some 40 US newspapers announcing that a state of war existed between Germany and Great Britain and that passengers would travel by steamship at their own risk. After the sinking of the Lusitania, Wilson urged the American public to remain neutral and he sent the protest letter to Kaiser Wilhelm stating that Germany would be held to “strict accountability” if the attacks conitnued. If the president really thought that it was a naked attack on civlians, might he not do something more than write a letter? Earlier, Wilson had offered to arbitrate an end to the war and both sides refused. But, German Ambassador asked President Wilson on September 2, 1916 if he would help negotiate an end to the war in return for a German withdrawl from Belgium. The great peacemaker Wilson refused! He wanted to wait until after the upcoming presidential election. He apparently was afraid that if he helped negotiate a peace that it might hurt his re-election chances. He knew that he had a small chance of ending the war and he passed it up in favor of political concerns. It went on for two more years. What else did he know and ignore for political reasons?

Wilson Lied?

Wilson claimed that the RMS Lusitania was strictly a civilian ship and carried no munitions. We know that is not true. I have yet to read anything in historical annals that say that President Wilson lied. I suppose he had plausible deniability and historians have given him a pass. In January 1917, Germany resumed unrestricted submarine warfare. In February 1917, the British made the Zimmerman Telegram available to the Americans. In subsequent weeks, the Germans sank a few more ships. So, on April 2, 1917, President Woodrow Wilson asked Congress to declare war on Germany, which it did two days later. The question as to whether Wilson knew that the Lusitania was hiding munitions among its passengers will never be known. But we do know that nearly 20 million people perished in The Great War.

SPC Severe Risk Fri AM to Sat AM

SPC Friday Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  Friday is here.  We have our cold front approaching.  There is a severe threat but it really does look like Ohio will be the target as that is the region with the parent low.  I just don’t think that the atmosphere had enough time to recover from the weak front that came through and brought such pleasant conditions on Thursday and a cool Friday start.  Southwesterly winds will be helping to move temperatures well into the 80′s and moisture will be increasing.  We have a bit of a cap on the atmosphere so afternoon heating will have to work on that and it should put a lid on any afternoon stuff.  I suspect that the front will create storms, there may be some gusty winds and a little rain but otherwise, I’m not totally convinced that there will be more than that.  Regardless of what my gut is telling me, the SPC does have our region in a slight risk for severe storms for late Friday night.

SPC Severe Wind Probability Friday

As I had mentioned yesterday, the dynamics look great for the late afternoon but by the time we actually get rainfall according to the models, the dynamics back off.  However, between the afternoon heating and the dynamics that are remaining, t’storms will probably be in the area.  Keep in mind though that both the GFS and NAM are not very enthusiastic about rainfall, which seems odd.  The NAM only advertises less than 1/10th of an inch of rain while the GFS is only .028 inches.  What this tells me is that rainfall amounts will vary with regions that get an errant thunderstorm getting more and places in between getting decidedly less. The Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center has jumped on board with this scenario as well as they are looking at perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain for the region with the heaviest amounts of up to 1.5″ around the Great Lakes.  That previous little front really knocked out the moisture and, as I said, it should serve to limit our rain potential.  That is fine with most people because we had our fair share of rain last weekend.  On a side note, I had a guy tell me some time ago that the Old Farmer’s Almanac worked on an assumption of a 7 day cycle.  So, if they initiated the weather correctly at the beginning of the year then it was astonishingly accurate.  I used to teach class on Thursday evenings and I noticed that 6 out of 7 Thursdays we had thunderstorms.  This is the 3rd consecutive weekend that we’ve had a cold front come through and bring t’storms.  It’s kinda interesting.

SPC Severe Hail Probability Friday

Anyway, the nitty gritty of the indicies reveals that the 6Z NAM had a CAPE of 1937, CINS of 5, Helicity 191, Bulk Richardson Number 32.34, Lifted Index of -5.5, the Total Totals at 54, K-Index of 29, Showalter index of -5 and SWEAT Index of 493.  Normally, I’d say that those numbers indicate a round of strong thunderstorms with the possibility of hail, high winds and even a tornado or two.  All of those numbers are high except the K index, which I think is telling and the Total Totals.  But, when it begins to rain at 8PM, the CAPE falls to 1436, the CINS stays up there at 6, the Helicity falls significantly to 66, BRN is still rather high at 26.73, TT falls to 48, the K-Index actually rises but is still not all that impressive at 34,  SHOW falls to -1 and the SWEAT goes to 353.  Suddenly, when it starts to rain its not so great.  The GFS is similar with the CAPE going from 1012 to 868, CINS is off the scale but falls to 22 which is still pretty good, BRN goes from 22.31 to 17.29, LI holds relatively steady from -2.7 to -2.2, K Index is a pedestrian 21 and goes down to a weak 17, SHOW is -2 to -1 and the SWEAT index is 414 to 351.   The GFS numbers are from 4PM to 7 PM with rain starting sometime between 7 and 10 pm, but it ain’t much.  The SWEAT numbers tell me that that there will be some wind energy available but it would appear that by the time anything gets here, the energy is rapidly depleting as the evening wears on.  The front is strong and should supply some lift for storms, but otherwise, it’s worth a look but not worth putting your house on the market.

First Big Deal For The Big Apple May 6, 2010

Manhattan Indians Would Be Wealthier Than The Entire United States If They Invested Wisely

Dutch "Buy" Manhattan...But Who Got Snookered?

On This Date In History:  In the Algonquian language, it was known as Manahatin which meant “Hill Island.”   Manahatin or “Mannahatta”  was a rich land teeming with wildlife and game like beaver, deer, bison and bear. The river had sturgeon and oyster beds were common on its shores. The northern 2/3 part of the island was occupied by an Indian tribe called the Weckquasgeeks which were a subdivision of the Wappinger Indians. The smaller remaining southern portion was where the Canarsees or Canarsie called home.

Trump Would Have Loved This Real Estate Deal

On May 4, 1626 the director-general of a new Dutch colony arrived on the shores of the island with instructions from home that, if the land was occupied by Indians, they were not to be forced off. Instead, they be persuaded by giving them something or with kind words. Well, the folks that occupied the island never claimed to own the land as they didn’t have the sense of ownership in their culture like the Europeans. And if they did, the Canarsees would have less claim than the Weckquasgeeks. Well, the Dutch didn’t know all of this and, on this date in 1626, gave the Canarsees what amounted to 24 American dollars in exchange for an island they didn’t own.

Loved the "FBI Guys"

It must be noted that there are several sources that put the purchase on a different date in May and at least one that claims it was in November. Still, another source claims there is no proof that the purchase ever took place, Nevertheless, assuming the veracity of the story, I’ve always figured that the Canarsee chief must have been like Frank Pentangeli (Michael V Gazzo) in The Godfather Part II when he says “the FBI guys, they offered me a deal and I said, sure…why not?”

So, the Canarasees took the money and the Dutch thought they had a good deal. But, of course, the Dutch certainly didn’t hold on to the Island long enough to see the Hudson River polluted so that there are no more sturgeon and no more oysters. They never saw the hills flattened and the rich soil covered in concrete nor the disappearance of the bison, deer, beaver and bear. Nope…the Dutch paid $24 for an Island to people who didn’t even own it and then didn’t stick around to see it become all that it would become.

Adjusted Price of Microsoft at IPO Was $0.0955 and peaked at Just Over $58

Meanwhile, the Indians…if they had taken that $24 and invested it at 6% interest compounded annually they’d be sitting on $35 Billion by 1988. If they continued that return on investment, it would be nearly $70 Billion by 2000. Now, if they had been really smart, then they would have put that $35 Billion (or perhaps a bit less) in 1986 at the initial public offering in a then-new company called Microsoft. If they had sold it at its peak just prior to 2000, they would have nearly $21.4 Trillion. Then, if they had invested it at 6% interest compounded annually for four years they would have just over $27 Trillion. If they took that money and invested it in 2004 in Google and then sold it at its peak in 2008, then they could have lived quite nicely on $189 Trillion. That is more than 14 times the entire US economy…I’m not sure if the government could tax that money since Indian Nations are considered to be sovereign nations, which is why they are allowed to have Casinos in states where they are otherwise prohibitited. Not bad for some guys from Brooklyn.

SPC Slight Risk Severe Weather Friday Night

Weather Bottom Line:  This little front that came through made for a nice Thursday.  Snow White and I rode around with the top down and then walked along the river which was  high but below flood stage.  When we were there it was about 21.4 feet and the flood stage is 23 feet.  The boys at the NWS seem to think that its about crested.  I’ve found that hydrology regarding river forecasting is not quite to the level that we’d like it to be because there are so many variables.  It may not be perfect but they have improved quite a bit, perhaps as good as it’s going to get.  In any event, they are usually not way off the mark so if they say it’s crested and it hasn’t it probably doesn’t have much more to go.  Now, it may not fall off real fast because there will be a fair amount of rain falling in the watershed to our North and that will make its way downstream and that will slow the descent; but fall it will.  It always does, eventually.

SPC Severe Probability for Saturday

This little front not only brought us good weather but dried out the atmosphere.  On the “against” side of the severe threat for our area, I think that moisture will be limited and also the main source of energy will be to our North.  On the “for” side, after a brief cooldown, we’ll be pushing into the mid to upper 80′s on Friday afternoon and the temperature contrast between the warm and cool air will be pretty significant.  Typically when you get a temperature gradient such that your highs from one day to the next fall some 20-25 degrees, then the strong storm threat is enhanced.  But..there’s the moisture factor.  Both the GFS and NAM advertise tremendous dynamics BUT….they come well before precipitation.  The timing of this for our area just doesn’t look quite right.  At this point, the data suggests rain chances go up for late Friday night….like around midnight.  So, the heating aspect gets lost a bit. And, by the time that comes around the strong dynamics are gone.  In fact, the rain data is not very impressive either.  Let’s put this in a possible but not probable category.  There may be an isolated strong storm still around with the biggest threats for the extreme northern part of the region. I would think  that Cincinnati and Columbus would have more to worry about than we do.  Keep in mind that we’ll have a nice weekend but highs for the Mother’s Day weekend will be in the 60′s.

Burial of Stonewall Jackson’s Left Arm; Death of Robert E. Lee’s Right Arm May 3, 2010

Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson

A youthful Thomas Jackson

On This Date in History:  In early 1861, Thomas Jonathan Jackson served as, what seems on the surface, a professor of an odd combination of disciplines.  He was a professor of philosophy and artillery tactics at Virginia Military Institute.  In spite of this lofty academic status, Jackson had a difficult time in the classroom.  He had a very limited education as a child and he barely passed his entrance examination for West Point.  In an interesting display of the dogged determination that would characterize his life, Jackson went from near the bottom of his class to 17th out of 59 when he graduated in 1846.    As it turns out, the old professor used his philosophy and his extensive knowledge relating to the evolution of the use of artillery to bring havoc to the Union Army.   You see, Thomas Jonathan Jackson is better known as Stonewall Jackson and he gained that moniker from the outset of the Civil War.

Picnic of some of Washington's elite at the First Battle of Bull Run

At the First Battle of Bull Run (aka Manassas), in July 1861, residents of Washington took the short journey to the battlefield to watch the battle.  At first, ideas of glory and heroism filled the heads of much of the citizenry and they thought that taking a picnic lunch to watch the event would be a splendid way to spend the afternoon.  At first, the fortunes of the North looked good as the men in blue shattered the Confederate line until Jackson’s men responded to fortify the defense.  Confederate General Bernard E. Bee is said to have made the observation, “See, there is Jackson standing like a stone wall!”  The Confederates staged a counteroffensive and routed the stunned Union troops, who fled back to Washington along with those who came to view the battle.  It became apparent that there was nothing glorious about modern warfare and that it was not going to be a short conflict.

Typical Jackson Posture on Horseback

Speculation regarding Jackson’s tenacity in mlitary matters and leadership may have been the result of his hypochondria.  For instance, Stonewall Jackson never put pepper on anything, claiming that it made his left leg weak.  His preference was a relatively simple meal that included bread, milk and raspberries.  When sitting, he only did so in an rigid, upright position as he said that his organs were able to sit “naturally” on top of one another.  This insistence on a consistent, erect posture resulted in a distinctive mount on his horse.  It was a perfect inspiration for his men to see their commander in a position of authority, one arm outstretched, directing his troops in battle.  It also probably made him an inviting target.  At Bull Run, Jackson took a bullet in that outstretched hand and the attended doctor suggested that his finger required amputation.  The doctor turned to get his instruments and when he turned back around, the patient had left.  General Jackson had a motto that the “Stonewall Brigade never retreats.”  When facing the instruments of a surgeon, Jackson defied his own orders and retreated on horseback rather quickly.

The Shooting of Stonewall Jackson Was Probably Not As Elaborate as this Artist's Interpretation

Jackson became attached to the Army of Northern Virginia under the command of General Robert E. Lee, who became extremely dependent on the services of General Jackson and his men.  While he was not always successful in battle as evidenced at the Seven Days Battles at Richmond in 1862, Jackson’s efforts were key in the victories of the Army of Northern Virginia at the First Battle of Bull Run, the Second Battle of Bull Run, Fredericksburg and the gallant effort at Antietam.    At Chancellorsville, VA  the Army of Northern Virginia defeated the Union’s Army of the Potomac under the command of General Joseph (Fightin’ Joe) Hooker.  That night, Jackson led a rather risky reconnaisance mission and when he came back in the dark, his men thought that his approach as a Yankee assault.  So, they dischargded their weapons and did what the Union Army had been unable to do.  On May 2, 1863, Stonewall Jackson was felled from his command by the shots of his own men.   There was much confusion in the darkness and Jackson was not attended to immediately.  When he was evacuated, the men were in such a hurry to remove him to safer quarters that he was dropped at least once from his stretcher.   Two slugs shattered his left arm.  This time, there was no escape from the surgeon.

You Can See The Headstone of Jackson's Arm

 Medicine during the Civil War was rather crude.  The understanding or infection and bacteria was just in its infancy and much of the knowledge that had come about had not yet reached the battlefield.  Also, most weapons fired .50 caliber led balls that are huge to begin with, but also tend to flatten out on impact.  Most of the time the results of the human body being hit by such a projectile were devastating.  Bones were typically not just broken but splintered into so many pieces that they were impossible to set.  Many soldiers died from shattered limbs and the only way to prevent gangrene or other complications from such an injury was amputation of the limb.  So, Jackson’s left arm was immediately amputated.  Following such trauma, a high fever quite often follows.  A high fever did strike Jackson and that indirectly led to his death.  When George Washington was ill, he ordered the doctor to continue to open wounds to try and bleed the illness from his body.  Speculation has been that Washington died from a loss of blood.  In a similar manner, Stonewall Jackson ordered servants to put cold towels on his body in an effort to lower his fever.  Some experts point to the use of cold towels as the cause of Jackson developing the pneumonia that ultimately claimed his life.   Doctors also were ignorant of his condition as they had assumed the pain he felt in his chest were simply a result of the rough handling he had suffered during his evacuation from the battlefield.   

On this date in 1863, the left arm of Stonewall Jackson was given a funeral complete with full military honors.  It was buried near Chancellorsville, VA with a marker that reads, “Arm of Stonewall Jackson.”

Dr. Hunter Holmes McGuire

When Robert E. Lee heard of the wounding of Thomas Jackson, he sent a note to the ailing general that said, “”Could I have directed events, I would have chosen for the good of the country to be disabled in your stead.”   Dr. Hunter McGuire was the attending physician and he reported that on his death bed, though Jackson became weaker, he remained spiritually strong.  Dr. McGuire wrote an account of his final hours in which the general became somewhat delirious as Jackson cried out,  ”Order A.P. Hill to prepare for action! Pass the infantry to the front rapidly! Tell Major Hawks…” McGuire said that Jackson suddenly  stopped, leaving the sentence unfinished.   What followed was a smile on the face of Jackson ”of ineffable sweetness spread itself over his pale face,” after which Jackson said quietly, with what the doctor described as an expression of relief,  ”Let us cross over the river, and rest under the shade of the trees”  The final words of Thomas Jonathan Jackson were “It is the Lord’s Day; my wish is fulfilled. I have always desired to die on Sunday.” 

Jackson gravesite

Stonewall Jackson died on May 10, 1863 and his body was removed to Richmond, VA for a public mourning.  His final resting place is the Stonewall Jackson Memorial Cemetery in Lexington, VA.   Legend is that General Robert E. Lee, upon hearing of the passing of Jackson, told his cook, “William, I have lost my right arm.  I’m bleeding at the heart.”     You can visit Stonewall Jackson’s left arm 125 miles from the rest of his body at Ellwood Manor, aka Ellwood Plantation.

Regional Rain Through 4PM May 2, 2010

TN Rain Through Sunday AM...but Much More Fell on Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  The forecast was pretty much on line.  The track for the Derby was a little messier than I thought it might as I had thought the track would be able to drain from rain Saturday morning.  But, I suppose getting an inch in a very short time was just too much.  We did have somewhat of a break during most of the races, once again suggesting that sensible weather notions often trumps what the computers think.  In general though, the rain totals were correct but the heaviest rain corrider was shifted about 40 miles east of our location to a Nashville-Lexington axis.  Those areas ended up with some 6-10 inches of rain.  Louisville was not out of the woods though with relatively minor, but still significant, flooding in the Southwestern part of Jefferson County.  As I had expected, Arkansas and Mississippi got the brunt of the tornadic activity.  But, counties around Memphis and Nashville had rain totals somewhere between 10 and 20 inches.  Many rivers and streams shattered record high levels.   Nashville’s two day rain totals were something in the neighborhood of 14 inches, which is double the previous two day record.

The week ahead will be one of warmer and drier weather at least for a few day.  Toward the end of the week, perhaps as early as Thursday, interesting weather may again be the topic of conversation.

 

We Need Lucky Luciano In Charge of Kentucky Derby Weather April 29, 2010

We Could Use His Help For Derby Day

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History: Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists? Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time. In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies. Though the veracity of the claim is unclear, US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. “

When the government approached the mobsters to help out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed. He said, “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks. They went up to men working in the area and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.” Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship (aka USS Lafayette) and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned (video) while at the New York docks. The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government. Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition. In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence. The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel. Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s. So, on this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular. With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents. It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting. Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence. Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

SPC Severe Weather Probability 7AM Derby Day to 7 AM Sunday

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: We’re going to need a lot of luck for Derby Day because,  if you want good weather for the Kentucky Derby, come back next year. Now, Oaks Day looks great.  But the story that I’ve been eyeballing all week is really getting lots of data supporting it.  In general, it would seem to me that we get a cold front coming close to us and it stalls.  It gets parallel to the Southwest to Northeast Jetstream flow and stays oriented from around Gary, IN to east of St. Louis to Texarkana and on through San Antonio.  At low levels, there will be lots of moisture converging up the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.   I think we’ll have two time frames of maximum rain as two separate jet streaks comes through associated with an upper low. 

GFS Over 2 inches on Derby Day

Oaks Day will be fine..in fact it will be great.  Oaks Day weather looks to be in the low to mid 80′s, breezy and partly cloudy.  Then the first disturbance and strong upper energy comes through bringing heavy rain from say 6 AM to Noon.  Then, I would think that we’d see more scattered activity on Saturday afternoon during most of the races and the condition of the track will be a function of how well the track drains.  The NAM follows what makes sense to me and is most likely as it has an inch of rain from 7AM to 1 Pm and then a tenth of an inch in the afternoon.  Then, the second wave comes through Saturday night with the strong upper jet winds as it may even develop into a surface feature.  If we get severe weather, it seems that this would be the most likely time and high winds would be the biggest bugaboo. But, the story will be rain.  The NAM concludes at 7PM on Sunday with a 36 hour total of about 4 inches.  I’m referring to the 12Z Thur run so it doesnt’ go beyond 7 PM on Sunday but I bet it would have slightly more rain in the offing.  This scenario seems most sensible  to me.

By Sunday Evening GFS dumps over 5 inches of rain for 36 hour total

HOWEVER….the GFS…has a similar solution except that it has heavy rain all day on Saturday and carries it through Sunday night.  By early Monday morning, the GFS has over 5.1″ of rain in less than 36 hours.  The biggest difference is that the GFS has substantially more rain during the races on Derby Day than the other models.  The GFS solution has been closest to what is now the consensus all week and it makes the least sense should we have two seperate jet streaks.  With two different streaks it would call for something less in between.  However, we are going to stay in a jet stream flow over the top of us and, if there is no confluence aloft to limit rain, then we would get persistent rain. 

The Derby will be wet one way or another.  The degree of wetness is the question.  For we locals, make sure that drains are clear because, unlike the South, our geology is  not conducive to supporting such rainfall….not to mention the pumps  of which I might remind the authorities only work properly if you turn them on!

The Greatest Maritime Disaster in US History: Sultana April 27, 2010

Steamboat Sultana Looked Overloaded to Everyone but the Captain

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

On this Date in History:  When we think of maritime disaster, one immediately thinks of the RMS Titanic.  After all, there have been numerous movies and documentaries that detail and discuss the incident.  When the news of the Titanic hit the papers, any other news of the day was lost to the backpages and buried.  Hence, when Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly across the English Channel, she had the misfortune of doing so the day after the Titanic sunk.  She died not too long after and so most Americans think of Amelia Earhart as the first lady of flight.  Back in 1865, the news of the killing of John Wilkes Booth on April 26 dominated the media.  So, when the greatest disaster in maritime history took place, it too was left to the backpages and since, like Harriet Quimby, has been largely lost in the conscience of American history.  Timing, they say, is everythying.

 The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded. The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers. On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2200 to 2500 former prisoners of war returning home on this date in 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers.  The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current. Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers. The deaths of at least 1700 souls was brought about by the fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, the river current was strong and turbulent and extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors.  Unlike the news of the sinking of the RMS Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Andersonville 1864

What adds to the tragedy is that the vast majority of those on-board were Union prisoners of war who had been held in the infamous Andersonville Confederate prison and other prisons such as Cahaba (aka Cahawba).  These soldiers, many wounded and extremely frail from their time in horrid prison conditions, wanted to get home as quickly as possible.  But, it was not just the desire to get home that resulted in the overloading of the boat.  I mean, the Captain could have simply said that his boat was full and told the rest to wait for the next one.  But, the policy of the government in providing transportation was to pay 5$ for each soldier transported.  Keep in mind that most soldiers received about $15 a month while they were fighting so $5 was a pretty good chunk of change.  It was such a good deal for the steamboats that boat captains regularly paid US Army officers $1.15 for every man that officer directed to a particular steamboat.  Bottom line is that the more people a captain could stuff on his boat, the greater his profit.

Andersonville Survivor-Many on the Sultana Were Very Frail

Now, the soldiers were loaded on board in Vicksburg, MS for a trip to Cairo, IL and the Sultana was just one of many boats providing transportation.  It was the chance of a lifetime for steamboat operators and any delay would result in the potential loss of profits.  So, when one of the boilers on the Sultana sprang a leak while in port at Vicksburg,   the captain ordered a patch be put on the leak.  This was a shortcut and perhaps a fatal mistake.  Most researchers suggest that the bulge in the boiler should have been removed and replaced.  But that would have taken about 4 days so the captain went the 1-day patch route.   If he had waited 4 days, other steamboats would certainly have picked up the precious cargo and there would be no way to make up for the loss as this mass transport would happen just once.   Historians Stephen Ambrose and Douglas Brinkley say that the US Army officers knew of the maintanence issues with the Sultana but were eager to get the $1.15 per man kick-back and loaded the unknowing soldiers on board.

On April 24, 1865 at about 9 pm, the Sultana cast off from Vicksburg.  Captain J. Cass Mason, who is described by the US Naval Institute as “respected” but “reckless,  told an army officer that he’d carried that many men in the past and that the boat was sturdy.  Mason was well aware that his boat was extremely overcrowded but did not consider it overloaded.  He assured the officer that the Sultana was a good ship and the men were in very capable hands.   The officer told Captain Moss, “Take good care of them.  They are deserving of it.”    With that, the ship was on its way to Memphis where on April 26, 1865 it stopped to pick up a load of coal.  At around midnight, it cast off again to continue it’s journey.  The repaired boiler exploded about 2 AM on this date in 1865 and the fact that it was only 7 miles upstream illustrates just how slow it was moving.  Between the load it was carrying and the flow of the river against it, it was only able to muscle 3.5 miles per hour.  The strain on the patch was too much.  It exploded and that caused two others to immediately blow up.  Fire raced through the boat, the two smokestacks fell and crushed many on the deck.  Keep in mind that a steamboat boiled water to create the steam so scalding water no doubt affected numerous passengers, many of whom were unable to move due to their condition and were in great pain from their wounds.

The Sultana was but 260 feet long with a draft of just 7 feet.  The RMS Titanic was 882 feet long.  The RMS Titanic had 2223 passengers and 700 survived the sinking while 1517 perished.  The much smaller Sultana carried 2200 to 2500 and 1700 to 1800  were killed in the disaster leaving  500 to 800  to survive initially, but 200 more would die later from their wounds.  The survivors of the Titanic were fortunate in that it was a still night with calm seas, but it was extremely cold and the water was freezing.  The weather conditions of the Sultana disaster weren’t nearly as cold, but the river had a very swift and turbulent current due to spring run-off from melting snow and seasonal rains upriver.  Those who escaped the exlosion had to fight the deadly current.  The boat itself was not completely destroyed in the explosion and fire but the hulk of wreckage floated downstream before ultimately sinking at Memphis where today it rests covered in mud and covered by the Mississippi River.

SPC Severe Probability Thurs AM to Fri AM

12Z Tue GFS Very Bullish for Rain Midday Derby Day

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m not convinced that it’s going to be dry for the Kentucky Derby Forecast.  The longer range models still show disagreement in that the European model keeps big storms several hundred miles to the West on Friday while the GFS has  a cold front draped across St. Louis.   Either way, we will get a warming trend ahead of the system beginning on Wednesday.  Moisture levels will also be increasing as we head to the low to mid 80′s. 

12Z Tue NAM Hold Rain Just West for Oaks Day

I still have an eyebrow raised about the prospects of severe weather around here but I don’t see a kicker.  Further, the GFS vertical profile prog doesn’t really present menacing severe indecies.  However, the GFS does throw out a little more than a half inch of rain for Friday afternoon which may mean we have a questionable Oaks Day Forecast.  I tend to think that we will be okay for Oaks Day.  I”m not sure if the progression will be as slow as the Storms Prediction Center seems to be going with, which is the European solution.  My guess is that the timing of this will be something in between the GFS and European.  Any slow down in the GFS solution will result in a pretty good Oaks Day.  But, the GFS throws out 2 inches of rain in Louisville from 1AM Saturday morning until 7 pm Derby Day.  Even if it’s slower, we get rain and t’storms for the afternoon.  Every model right now throws out some amount of rain for Derby Day.   So, if you are picking a horse early, a good mudder will be a wise decision.  However, I think the wisest thing will be to wait to make your wager.  There is such disagreement with the data that its difficult to really pin down a firm forecast.  While all indications are that we will have low level convergent flow and an increasing jet stream intensity, which would support t’storms, the timing is debatable.  Should that scenario play out and some sort of kicker like a shortwave come through the flow, then we’re talking severe potential.  I have a fair amount of confidence that the rain and t’storm chances will be high for Derby Day.  I feel pretty good about the idea that Oaks Day will be warm, breezy and partly cloudy.  But, there is enough uncertainty that its probably not a good idea to hang your derby hat just yet.