Car Ahead of Its Time For All Time
February 17, 2010

1946 Volkswagen

Volkswagen 1975...not much difference after 31 years

On This Date in History:  Back in the early 1930′s, the world was mired in a global depression.  Europe was still reeling from the effects of the First World War.  Consumer consumption of products was low.  So, in 1933, the United States swore in a new president.  Franklin D. Roosevelt went about trying to revive the American economy.  In Europe, the leader of a nation went to a young automobile engineer with a proposal that was in the form of a demand.  Ferdinand Porsche had developed a reputation as an outstanding designer during his tenure at Daimler-Benz and Auto-Union and had developed his own consulting business.  He was asked to come up with a small car that seated four people, had a durable air-cooled engine that got 4o miles per gallon and was priced at less than $250 (1000 German Marks).   The leader of Germany even had a name for the yet-to-be-created car:  The Volkswagen which means “people’s car.”

What was mistaken (by me) as a 1944 Volkswagen Wartime Staff Car Variation Is Really A Mercedez Benz 170 Da OTP(Open Touring Police) as per it's owner, Richard.

Of course, the leader was Adolph Hitler and a few months later, he ordered 3 prototypes to be built and also more or less ordered the nation’s manufacturers to supply the parts.  Porsche was in a fix.  The engineering was not the problem but instead it was the economics.  The man who perfected the mass production of automobiles, Henry Ford, turned out cars at a low cost but even his cars ran about $800.  It was a daunting task to undercut Henry Ford by over 2/3 and still produce a quality car.  Given that the request came from the German Chancellor who was gathering unrivaled political power through both legal and violent means, the pressure must have been enormous.   But, old Ferdinand had a secret.  See, Hitler demanded delivery of the prototypes in just 10 months but Porsche was ahead of the game.   The year before he had designed a rear engine, air-cooled small car on his own.   But, there was the issue of the cost.  So, it was back to the drawing board.

VW Kubelwagen 1944-Germany's Answer to the Jeep

But Porsche had other interests as he split time with his efforts to help German racing teams and he was more interested in that than in living up to Hitler’s public announcements that soon there would be an affordable car for all Germans.  And the German Automobile Manufacturers Society wasn’t exactly racing to provide materials because they knew all they were doing was helping create a new competitor in the market.  Porsche though was still pushed so he went to America to take notes on how the Americans mass-produced cars.  He determined that there was no way that the German financial system could support the development of such an endeavor and that the government would have to do it.  As it turns out, before production of the people’s car could get off the ground, Hitler started invading countries all over Europe.  The factory never delivered what has become known as the Beetle.  Instead, the factory was retooled and an stronger, more powerful rear engine  open vehicle was created called the Kubelwagen.  It had similar capabilities of the American Jeep.  It also served as the German Staff Car during the war.  Later, the Kubelwagen variation created by Porsche came back to life as the VW Thing.

1974 VW Thing Looks A Lot Like 1944 Kubelwagen

But, the Thing came about after the Beetle and the Beetle, aka the people’s car, did not come to life until after the end of the Second World War.  The factory fell into the British zone of divided post-war Germany.  The British needed to keep workers busy so, after finding the blueprint of Porsche’s design, the put the factory personnel to work.  By 1948, the British put BMW designer Dr. Ing. Heinz Nordhoff in charge of Volkswagen.  Nordoff remained at the helm when the plant was turned over to the new West German government and by 1955, Beetle number 1,000,000 rolled off the assembly line as the first European car to ever achieve such a production level.  But, they weren’t done.  Americans stationed overseas had first brought the Beetle to the states as a second car.  But, quickly, the car that was dwarfed by the mammoth cars put out by Detroit fulfilled Hitler’s promise to the American people.  While it was slow and quite small, the Volkswagen was very durable, required little maintainance, was very miserly with gas compared to American gas guzzlers and was generally affordable for people who otherwise could not afford cars. 

Porsche: The Real Genius Behind the Beetle

Henry Ford with his Model T had acheived that objective before the Beetle, before Hitler and before anyone else.  But, by the 1950′s Detroit kinda moved away from that business model and the Beetle fit that nitch market quite nicely.  And it continued to do so.  On this date in 1972, Volkswagen put out Beetle number 15,007,034 rolled off the assembly line to surpass Ford’s Model T for the most produced car in all of history.  While Volkswagen became the name of the company instead of the car, and the original Beetle model was eventually discontinued in the United State and replaced by a new, more expensive Beetle with more of the luxuries that Americans demand, the old model Beetle remains in production in Mexico.   Seems that every time I’ve been in Mexico, the cab I rode in was either a Beetle or a Thing…both relics of World War II.  Most people though think that Hitler came up with the Beetle and he didn’t;  it was Ferdinand Porsche.  And what became known as the Beetle wasn’t even offered to the public until after the war.  I think the story of the People’s Car is a good metaphor for Hitler in some regards because he falsely took credit for someone else’s genius and he then made a promise to the people that he never kept.

NWS snowfall depiction through Tue Feb 15 2010

Weather Bottom Line: I don’t have much to add today except that I had about 4.5 inches of snow at my house and the National Weather Service had an official total for the event through early Tuesday of just around 4 inches with the weather service office closer to 5 inches or so.   Yet, the newspaper trumpted in it’s headlines Tuesday morning “6 Inches and Counting.”  It reminds of of the flood in parts of the city in early August when the paper quoted all of these rain totals that were based on rumor and not fact as no measuring device could come close to verifying what city officials and the paper claimed.  But, to be sure, some folks got a little more than 5-6 inches of snow and some got less.  From driving around it seems like Jefferson County got 4-5 inches in general with the 6-8 inch totals falling north of the river or northeast of Louisville.  The NWS made a very general map seen above.  A few flurries on Wednesday and it stays cold.  The next system seems to be falling behind with the models and there is a better than fair chance that we warm up a little and get rain for the second half of the weekend before a little snow on the tail end for Monday.  But, there is no consensus with this solution except that the GFS is starting to show some consistency. We’ll have to see how it shakes out over the next few days but I strongly suspect its more of a rain event than snow.

Hitler Could Have Been Killed Long Before WWII, But a Kind Heart Intervened
September 28, 2009

Death and Destruction of WWII May Have Been Averted If For A Single Shot in World War I

Death and Destruction of WWII May Have Been Averted If For A Single Shot in World War I

Kirk Saves The Day But Misses Out on More Scenes with Joan Collins

Kirk Saves The Day But Misses Out on More Scenes with Joan Collins

On This Date in History:  Have you ever seen one of those Star Trek episodes that deals with time travel?  In one Kirk is in the 1920′s and if he knows a woman (Joan Collins) will be killed in a car accident and he has the ability to save her life. But Spock tells him that if he does save her, then all of history will be changed and that even the world that they know in the 23rd century would be altered, perhaps negavtively.  But Kirk is not the only one hot for Joan.  Bones has his eye on her and for once he gets a chance to be the hero in the show.   There is no way that Kirk is going to allow the writers to make McCoy the hero of any show so he  keeps the good doctor from saving the woman.  In the end, it’s Kirk who is the hero to millions…again.  Too bad he wasn’t around in 1918.

What Seemed So Right Turned Out So Wrong

What Seemed So Right Turned Out So Wrong

British Private Henry Tandey was serving in the 5th Duke of Wellington Regiment near the French village of Marcoing.  On this date in 1918, toward the end of a battle, the Germans were in retreat and a wounded German soldier came into his line of fire.  Tandey later said he just couldn’t bring himself to shoot a wounded man.   The German soldier nodded in thanks for Tandey’s kindness and disappeared.  A photograph that appeared in London newspapers of Tandey carrying a wounded soldier at the the First Battle of Ypres in 1914 was later put on canvas by Italian artist Fortunino Matania that glorified the Allied war effort.  Move ahead a couple of decades.

Hitler Recognized The Man Carrying the Wounded Soldier

In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain traveled to Germany to meet with German Chancellor Adolph Hitler as part of his effort to prevent another war.  Hitler took Chamberlain to his country retreat in Bavaria where he showed the British Prime Minister a copy of the painting by Matania.  Now, it was odd that Hitler would have such a painting because his motivation for building the Nazi party and gaining control of Germany was due to the humiliating defeat and armistice following World War I.  Some evidence suggests that Hitler did indeed have the copy of the painting as early as 1937.  Why would he have a painting that depicted the defeat over Germany?  When Hitler showed the painting to Chamberlain, he said, “That’s the man who nearly shot me.”

Had Tandy Not Been So Righteous, This Picture May Not Have Ever May Never Have Been Seen

Had Tandy Not Been So Righteous, This Picture May Not Have Ever May Never Have Been Seen

Now, this tale cannot be totally verified and is generally chalked up as legend.  There is no way to actually prove that the man whose life Tandey spared in an act of compassion was really Hitler.  But, I think its safe to say that Hitler thought it was the case.  And if it was so, then think of how many millions of lives might have been saved and how history may have been altered if the man who confronted the young German soldier on the battlefield had been a mean, hard-ass soldier instead of one of humanity and compassion.  Had Hitler not lived, then there not only may not have been World War II, but also the rise of the Soviet Union may not have come about and then no Cold War.  Would the atomic bomb have become a reality?  Would the post war economic boom in the US taken place?  With no Soviet Union, then perhaps there would have been no drive to put a man on the moon.  Who knows.  It’s a kinda fun exercise to think of such things but largely not relevant and an exercise in futility.  It’s best to look forward because in our individual lives and our large-scale collective lives, we live in the world in which we are given left to play the hand which we are dealt.  Here is a full rendition of the story.

Louisville NWS Forecast Monday Night

Louisville NWS Forecast Monday Night

Weather Bottom Line:  I’ve been telling you since last week that we may not see the 70′s for part of this week. Well, we’re not going to see the 70′s until Thursday.  And, I added that I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 30′s on Tuesday or Wednesday morning in the northern part of the viewing area.  We will probably be too windy overnight for 30′s on Tuesday morning as high pressure continues to settle in.  But, Wednesday morning the 30′s may go beyond just the northern fringes…how about the northern half?  Could very well shake out that way.  This little cool snap with the wet summer we’ve had and it may be setting the stage for a great fall color season….certainly I’d expect something better than the crappy colors we’ve seen the past two years.

Happy Mother’s Day…Your Son is a Thug! Iraq Got Arms Through Syria
May 12, 2009

thuglife

Don't Trash Talk Momma

Don't Trash Talk Momma

Think He's a Match For Kenyon?

Think He's a Match For Kenyon?

Happy Mother’s Day! Your Son is a Thug!  So, the NBA playoffs are going on an they are pretty physical.  One of the more physical players is the Denver Nuggets’ Kenyon Martin.  On Mother’s Day, the Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks were playing a game and Cuban took the opportunity to tell Martin’s mom that her son was a thug.   A fine wish on mom’s day.  Seems her little boy, 6 foot nine 250 lb Kenyon, didn’t take to kindly to the owner’s conversation with his mother.  But, he’s not going to talk about in the press.  When asked about it, Martin said, “”It’s a little personal, and I’m going to take care of it,” he said. “I’m not going to do the whole media thing, back and forth. That’s his thing. I’m more of a face-to-face type of dude.”   I think Cuban should use some of his billions to hire some good security.

Arms Deals Have Gone On in Mideast For Years

Arms Deals Have Gone On in Mideast For Years

On This Date in History:  This should sound familiar.  An adversary to the west supplies arms and support to Iraq which is threatening to cut off the oil to its former western allie, breaking agreements in the process.  The arms supplied to Iraq flow through Syria as the anti-western Iraqi government gets into a conflict with the western power.

This little story is not new…in fact it’s old.  The country supplying the arms was none other than Germany and its leader was Adolph Hitler.  On this date in 1941, Hitler sent two bombers to Iraqi leader Rashid Ali al-Gailani who had staged a coup against the pro-western government of Prime Minister General Nuri as-Said who had severed ties with Germany and signed an agreement of cooperation with Great Britain.  Ali was also a General but he opposed the British and, upon gaining power, turned off the oil pipeline to the Mediterranean which Britain needed in its war effort. 

Hitler's Gift Did No Good

Hitler's Gift Did No Good

The Brits landed a brigade who fought successfully against 9000 Iraqis.  Ali responded by cutting off a British airbase and on May 12, 1941 Hitler was so enthused that he not only sent two bombers but also a big shot major who would serve as an advisor.  Well, Major Axel von Blomberg didn’t get the chance.  Seems he flew right into an air battle between the Brits and Iraqis and Blomberg was killed by a stray English bullet.  Two weeks later, Iraq surrendered al-Said was put back in the throne of power and the original 1930 cooperation agreement was re-established with the English.  Iraq became a key element in the American and British fight in World War II and in the beginning of 1942 Iraq was the first Muslim nation to declare war on Hitler and the Axis powers. 

The real point of this story is that this struggle between the Muslim world and the West is not new and goes far beyond today and even World War II.  You really have to go back about 1500 years.  What are the odds it ends in our lifetime?

Tornado Damage From Saturday

Tornado Damage From Saturday

Weather Bottom Line: I told you the other day that we inexplicably lucked out with the Derecho that came through.  There were warnings in all of Southern Missouri and part of Southern Indiana and also in Eastern Kentucky.  But nothing much from Louisville to Paducah.  The only thing I can figure is that for some reason there was a decoupling of the winds aloft and at that the surface because the clouds were just racing along yet we didn’t have much wind, to my surprise.  But, whatever it was, it got itself back together after producing straight line winds in Carbondale, IL of 106 mph.  An EF-3 tornado touched down southeast of Richmond, KY in Garrard and Madison counties.  The distruction was pretty tough.  Here’s the Louisville NWS analysis (By Meteorologist Poohbah Joe Sullivan) and a whole bunch of pictures.

Tuesday will be good…..but all models show a short wave early Wednesday coming through our area.  Probably a safe bet for rain or t’storms.  Both the NAM and GFS Monday 18Z version of the vertical profiles show some pretty fair dynamics but not much potential energy.  What is curious to me is that in the afternoon, the indecies get stronger.  Then a cold front comes through on Thursday and the indecies are strong across the board on the NAM but go absolutely beserk on the GFS.  Let’s re-evaluate this and enjoy our Tuesday. 

http://www.alphainventions.com/

alphainventions

A New Phone, Big Election Win and New York Terrorist
March 29, 2009

Accused Seems to Enjoy Being a Celebrity

Accused Seems to Enjoy Being a Celebrity

Hold the Phone!

Hold the Phone!

Hello? Son, is that You?

Hello? Son, is that You?

On This Date in History:
The telephone was invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 when he spilled acid on his trousers and shouted, “Watson, Come Here! I want you.”  Good thing for Al that Watson was able to hear him over the telephone.  Bell may never have known that his phone worked and he may have had even greater problems with acid in his pants.  President Rutherford B. Hayes had the first telephone installed in the White House in 1878 complete with a telephone switchboard.  For some reason, no one ever thought that it might be a good idea to have a phone put in the president’s office.  President Herbert Hoover apparently grew weary of having to go to the foyer outside of the Oval Office to use the phone.  So, on this date in 1929, he had one installed in his office.  Naturally, it didn’t work as Hoover grew incensed that his son was not able to get through to the Oval Office on an outside line.  See, the stock market had not crashed yet and so Herb had plenty of time on his hands.  I bet when the economy went south a year later he wished that he never had that phone put in. 

 

 

Another world leader was pleased on this date, and he should not have been surprised.  Eight

Goebbels Family...Not Exactly Ozzie and Harriet

Goebbels Family...Not Exactly Ozzie and Harriet

months after the Treaty of Versailles was signed and World War I was officially brought to an end.  In pragmatic terms, the war was pretty much a stalemate.  But, with the Germans and Turks pretty much spent militarily and economically and America having joined up with the Allies, it was impossible for Germany and its allies to continue.  Not through military defeat, but instead due to a position of weakness,  the Germans were forced to sign an agreement that was grossly tilted against them.  This peace treaty ultimately sowed the seeds for World War II.  Part of the deal was for Germany to leave it’s extreme western portion bordering France, the Rhineland, to be absent of military presence.  On March 7, 1936 German Chancellor Adolph Hitler unilaterally cancelled the Treaty of Versailles and remilitarized the Rhineland.  The world was outraged…but did nothing.  To show the world that he had legitimate support from all of Germany, Hitler called for an election for a referendum on the remilitarization of the region.  On March 17, Hitler made a speech in which he said that he wished for peace to continue with France.   On this date in 1936, it was a fine spring day in Germany and an excellent time for an election.  Joseph Goebbels announced that the Nazis received 99% of the vote!  What a surprise!  Hey, maybe it was legit.  

Jesse Owens PO'd Hitler in 1936 a few months after the Nazi election "victory"

Jesse Owens PO'd Hitler in 1936 a few months after the Nazi election "victory"

 I recall once in Louisville there was an election between political rivals, Charles D. Jacob and John G. Baxter.  That in itself was not unusual because the two squared off for the Louisville Mayor’s office several times.  Baxter was Mayor on two different occasions and I think Jacob got elected 5 times.  Anyway, Baxter was known for his political hijinx and had made a lot of enemies.  Once there was an assassination attempt made against him.  Perhaps the would-be assassin was reflecting public sentiment because Baxter went and lost an election to Jacob by getting only 100 out of 15,000 votes cast.  So, a near unanimous route is possible.  In this case, the Germans were very angry with the Treaty of Versailles and according to the Berlin Diary of correspondent William Shirer, the people of the Rhineland were overjoyed at the return of German troops to their region.   Shirer said that some correspondents reported some irregularlities but Shirer himself had no doubt that the overwhelming majority of Germans did, in fact, support the move into the Rhineland, whether they were a part of the Nazi Party or not.  If the vote indeed was a 99% win for the Nazis, it’s probably the only time that Joseph Goebbels had an honest press release.

The Mad Bomber?

The Mad Bomber?

And finally, we often think of terrorism as being something relatively new.  It’s not really.  It’s a tactic that is used by a group of people who do not have the means to face their opponent in a traditional military style.  The object of war is the conclusion of political aims and so is the same for most terrorists.  Some may consider some of the actions of the Sons of Liberty in colonial America to be terrorism.  And, in the first part of the 20th century through World War II, it was Jewish extremist groups that led numerous terror attacks against the ruling British in an effort to establish an independent Israel.  Now, while the Sons of Liberty may or may not have been terrorists, the legacy of domestic terrorism has continued from time to time.  Usually brought by nut cases.  Sometimes they get some infamous notoriety as the media likes to put name tags on them.  In the late 20th century there was the “Unibomber” but before that it was the “Mad Bomber” that terrorized New York. 

Ted Kaczynski "Unabomber"

Ted Kaczynski "Unabomber"

In 1940, a pipe bomb was found at New York’s electric company, Con Edison.  The note attached said, “Con Edison Crooks, this is for you.”  More bombs were found in 1941, each more powerful than the previous one.  That is until the end of 1941.  Perhaps he was taking a page from the Sons of Liberty or maybe he was just patriotic but the bomber left a note that said he would not plant any more bombs until after the war was over.  I guess he wanted to wait until things settled down after the war because it was not until this date in 1950 that the Mad

Sons of Liberty Was a Rough Crowd

Sons of Liberty Was a Rough Crowd

Bomber returned and set a bomb at Grand Central Station.  That one was disarmed but some of his other work went off in places like Radio City Music Hall, the Staten Island Ferry, Macy’s, the RCA building and again at Grand Central Station. 

The cops couldn’t track the guy down but an investigation by Con Edison found…you guessed it….the proverbial “disgruntled former employee.”  Seems that in 1931, George Peter Metesky had been injured on the job and Con Edison refused to pay for any medical benefits.  So, Metesky got sore and decided to start planting bombs.  Investigators found him living with his sister and in 1957 he was sent to a mental institution where he resided until his release in 1973.   Man, this guy sure could carry a grudge!  He was blowing stuff up over 20 years after he had felt shafted.  And to think, I always thought the Mad Bomber was Darryl Lamonica. 

Pretty Lousy Sunday

Pretty Lousy Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  Tell you what, the data was really pretty good regarding the weather event of Saturday.   The dynamics were great but there wasn’t a whole lot else going for this stuff.  We had very strong winds aloft and also a good bit of veering of the winds.  But, we weren’t all that unstable to  help things out.  In the late afternoon we got to the low to mid 60′s which was sufficient to support big storms that got going to our southwest and produced big hail, high winds and a few tornadoes.  But, but the time it got to Louisville, the sun had been down for a few hours and so the instability was gone and we got thunderstorms and winds, but nothing really severe. 

The rest of the forecast looks on track through the weekend with a chilly and blustery day on Sunday with highs struggling to get to 50.  Back to the lower 60′s for early next week.

alphainventions.com

Hurricane Kyle Threatens New England and A Kind Act That Changed the World?
September 28, 2008

Boats Like This (minus the girl) Nearly Did Me In

Boats Like This (minus the girl) Nearly Did Me In

The forecast was right on target for most of the area on Saturday…unless you live in the city. The clouds were in the area for the morning and broke up just about everywhere except Louisville.  Consequently, much of the outlying area made it up to the lower 80′s while the city only struggled to the mid 70′s.  Snow White and I went sculling but as we made our way down the creek to the Ohio River, we noticed it was particularly rough with a wave crashing over me like I was the SS Poseiden.  So, we turned and went back up the creek. Behind us we heard the roar of engines and saw about 8 big power boats go racing by.  Had we gone upstream I probably would have been chopped in half or swamped by those big ole boats you used to see at the beginning of Miami Vice.  Anyway, we turned around and will have the chance to enjoy plenty of sunshine on Sunday as the remnant of Invest 94 moves up the spine of the Appalacians.  A weak front approaches on Monday but the real story is another front on Tuesday.  It may bring a few largely insignificant showers on Monday night or Tuesday morning but more significantly will provide some below seasonal average Canadian Air to start off October.

Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 0315Z
Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 0315Z
Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0927 11PM
Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0927 11PM

Hurricane Kyle:

  So far, the tropical cyclone known as Kyle is behaving quite well once it finally

Hurricane Kyle Spaghetti Model 0928 00Z

Hurricane Kyle Spaghetti Model 0928 00Z

 got off the snide and got out of the Dominican Republic. It became a hurricane late Saturday afternoon as it moved NE of an area of low pressure in the Appalacians (Invest 94) into a window of more favorable winds aloft.  It developed a concentric center of storms around the main circulation and pressures dropped.  It will continue to move generally north at some 25-35 mph which puts it just east of Maine in New Brunswick by Sunday evening. The forecast track graphic is from the US Navy Naval Research Lab as it has a bit more detail than the NHC version…but its based on the NHC forecast. It’s moving so fast that there is not a lot of things that can happen to change the general track.  By that time, it’s forecast to have run into some colder air as well as some strong

Hurricane Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0928 00Z

Hurricane Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0928 00Z

westerlies that will mess it up. But so what, they’ll have near hurricane conditions around an area that most people don’t associate with tropical weather but they should.  Having a hurricane go that far north is not unprecedented by any stretch and I suggest you totally discount anyone, regardless of credibility, who claims that it is evidence of Global Warming.  I haven’t heard it yet but I would not be surprised if someone doesn’t try to make that claim.   Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Kyle Forecast Discussion and then to the marine forecast for off the Massachusetts Coast.

On This Date in History:  Have you ever seen one of those Star Trek episodes that deals with time travel?  In one Kirk is in the 1920′s and if he knows a woman (Joan Collins) will be killed in a car accident and he has the ability to save her life. But Spock tells him that if he does save her, then all of history will be changed and that even the world that they know in the 23rd century would be altered, perhaps negavtively.  So, Kirk as usual lets his loins do the thinking and he tries to save her even though it means the end to humanity as he knows it.  But Bones comes to the rescue and keeps Kirk from saving the woman.  Too bad Bones wasn’t around in 1918.

British Private Henry Tandey was serving in the 5th Duke of Wellington Regiment near the French village of Marcoing.  On this date in 1918, toward the end of a battle, the Germans were in retreat and a wounded German soldier came into his line of fire.  Tandey later said he just couldn’t bring himself to shoot a wounded man.   The German soldier nodded in thanks for Tandey’s kindness and disappeared.  A photograph that appeared in London newspapers of Tandey carrying a wounded soldier at the the First Battle of Ypres in 1914 was later put on canvas by Italian artist Fortunino Matania that glorified the Allied war effort.  Move ahead a couple of decades.

Hitler Recognized The Man Carrying the Wounded Soldier

Hitler Recognized The Man Carrying the Wounded Soldier

In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain traveled to Germany to meet with German Chancellor Adolph Hitler as part of his effort to prevent another war.  Hitler took Chamberlain to his country retreat in Bavaria where he showed the British Prime Minister a copy of the painting by Matania.  Now, it was odd that Hitler would have such a painting because his motivation for building the Nazi party and gaining control of Germany was due to the humiliating defeat and armistice following World War I.  Some evidence suggests that Hitler did indeed have the copy of the painting as early as 1937.  Why would he have a painting that depicted the defeat over Germany?  When Hitler showed the painting to Chamberlain, he said, “That’s the man who nearly shot me.”

Now, this tale cannot be totally verified and is generally chalked up as legend.  There is no way to actually prove that the man whose life Tandey spared in an act of compassion was really Hitler.  But, I think its safe to say that Hitler thought it was the case.  And if it was so, then think of how many millions of lives might have been saved and how history may have been altered if the man who confronted the young German soldier on the battlefield had been a mean, hard-ass soldier instead of one of humanity and compassion.  Had Hitler not lived, then there not only may not have been World War II, but also the rise of the Soviet Union may not have come about and then no Cold War.  Would the atomic bomb have become a reality?  Would the post war economic boom in the US taken place?  With no Soviet Union, then perhaps there would have been no drive to put a man on the moon.  Who knows.  It’s a kinda fun exercise to think of such things but largely not relevant and an exercise in futility.  It’s best to look forward because in our individual lives and our large-scale collective lives, we live in the world in which we are given left to play the hand which we are dealt.  Here is a full rendition of the story.

HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION…DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE…HOWEVER…THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS…AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE…THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS…SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST.  THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS…THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER…ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD…BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  IN ABOUT 48
HOURS…THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME…BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0300Z 36.2N  69.5W    65 KT
12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.8W    65 KT
24HR VT     29/0000Z 43.7N  67.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  65.1W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/0000Z 49.2N  64.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.0N  63.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     02/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

ANZ254-280815-
 COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
 OUT 20 NM-
 1143 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
 
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
 

 REST OF TONIGHT
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS
 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AROUND 7 FT. SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. VSBY 1 TO
 3 NM.

 SUN
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT…
 BECOMING N 35 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS
 AROUND 10 FT…BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S AND E OF
 NANTUCKET…SEAS AROUND 14 FT… BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
 AFTERNOON. SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON…THEN SHOWERS LIKELY
 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY
 1 TO 3 NM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

 SUN NIGHT
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 25 TO
 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT…BECOMING W 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
 MIDNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 13 FT… SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
 A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

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