The Morning After Ike September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 1345Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite 1345 0913

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0913 1345Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike with damage photos and video CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it moves through Texas, CLICK HERE. Navigate from the Ohio Valley default and go to street level anywhere in the nation. Add clouds and/or lightning and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0913

Really, not much to say. Ike is inland and moving quickly toward North Texas. So far, Ike was difficult and dangerous and caused great problems in the Golden Triangle of SE Texas and also SW Louisiana. It caused damage in Galveston and Houston. World Famous Brennans in Houston burned to the ground. But, it would appear that the turn north just prior to landfall limited the storm surge damage as the greatest surge was in much less populated areas of the coast except for Port Arthur.

Now, the national problem aside from the insurance buisness, which before sunrise was predicting claims second only to Katrina (how they know that before they can

3 Day Rainfall Forecast 12Z Sat thru 12Z Tue

see I don’t know), will be the petroleum and chemical supply. Power outages in the

Texas Natural Gas Pipelines

area could last for a very long time. That could affect the start up of refineries. Storm surges may have affected some refineries. 23% of the refining capacity of the US is on the Houston Ship Channel and it seems to have done its job as it stretches inland 44 miles and helps protect interests along the waterway and in the Port of Houston. Nevertheless, there may be damage. There are many other refineries and

Severe Storm Outlook 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun

chemical plants from west of Galveston through Port Arthur to Lake Charles that could be damaged or also disrupted. I’m sure you know in your town right now, gasoline prices have risen. In some areas there may be shortages as, the distribution network is disrupted. Not only are the refineries in SE Texas, but also the greatest grid of natural gas pipe line in the nation. Louisiana and Texas have natural gas all over the place and Texas has over 43,000 miles of pipeline. Those pipes were shut down. Until they are restarted and transmitting natural gas, there may be shortages and higher prices. The price rise will probably be difficult for a month.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR…SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. HOWEVER…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY… ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER…THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE’S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…UNFORTUNATELY…ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS…WESTERN LOUISIANA…AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT…AS WILL CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 31.0N 95.3W 70 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W 45 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Ike Made Landfall In Galveston at 2:10 AM CDT September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike IR Satellite 0913 645Z

for a more recent update of hurricane ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. You can track Ike on radar as it moves inland. Just navigate away from the default in the Ohio Valley and go to street level anywhere in the country. Hit “animate” to loop and add clouds and lightning as desired.

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 645Z

Hurricane Ike did Galveston a favor. For days I have been suggesting that the key

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0913 5AM

to this guy was the turn. Ike turned just prior to landfall. The ECMWF was on the money. The storm moved into Galveston moving at about 315 degrees. The eye went over Galveston Bay sorta straddling the eastern side. It seems to me to be moving more north. Downtown Houston probably won’t get the eye but instead will stay in the western eyewall all night. Not good. Will be interesting to

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field 0913 5AM

see how the windows in the big buildings held up. If you look at the water vapor image, you get an idea of the strongest part..the eastern part. The big blob is just east of Galveston toward Beaumont. That is the area that saw the maximum storm surge. Look at the surge probability table and note the probability of 5 foot or higher surge east of Galveston into Louisiana. It would appear to

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0913 06Z

me from the data from gauges in Galveston that the water rise topped out at about 12 feet. It was highest from say, High Island just east of the inlet to Galveston over toward Port Arthur. Galveston will get blasted by the southern eye wall and perhaps stronger winds than earlier(often the backside with opposite wind direction is worse so it wouldn’t surprise me if wind damage mulitplies with the backside), but the

Hurricane Ike Hurricane Wind Probability 0913 5AM

storm surge probably won’t be affected too much. I suspect the western end of Galveston, which is inaccessable, probably sustained pretty significant damage. Most of the beach houses there…and there are many…had many a party time down there at Jamaica Beach and Pirates Beach back in my days of misspent youth….are on stilts but they have no seawall and most are literally right on the beach. Wind and water I am sure took their toll as the water was high for a long time with some pretty big waves. I’m sure that the numerous houses on the west end have been severely damaged as well as many structures in Galveston.

Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Probability 0913 5AM

I’ve been thinking about the water rise so early in the story and how it was similar to September 1900. I suspect that it has as much to do with the geography as with the storm. A storm coming at that angle of attack pushes up the water so that it has no where to go but up. I think the differences between this guy and the one in 1900 was that “Isaac’s Storm” or the “Big Blow” as it used to be known, was stronger and it hit about 15 miles farther west. Because this guy had such a big eye..about 36 miles at landfall, if it had been about 25 miles farther west, the surge would have been 50 to 80 percent higher in Galveston Bay than my perceived 12 feet. I won’t be surprised if you hear higher surges in Galveston but I haven’t seen it on any gauges. The highest surges I’ve seen were in Sabine Pass (12-15 feet) and that is where some of the highest winds have been as of 5AM EDT. Anyway, the another important difference is the seawall. They literally raised the entire island, which is a barrier island or a giant sandbar, by some 15 feet. So, in 1900 there was no seawall and the island was not as high and the surge was probably higher. Regardless of the damage, and it will be extensive, in Galveston…Galveston got off much better than it would have had the storm followed its forecast track and passed about 25 miles farther west.

Damage in Houston I suspect will be similar to Alicia in 1983 and power will be out, especially on the east half of the city, for quite some time. Keep in mind, the refineries are on the east side mainly. It will be interesting how they faired and how long they will be shut down. Damage will extend into Louisiana where homes have flooded and levees are in danger of failing.

Rainfall Total Forecast 12Z Sat to 12Z Mon

Ike will bring heavy rain well inland as well as strong winds all the way to Oklahoma. The heavy rain will move into the plains and perhaps the Ohio Valley. LOUISVILLE The SPC has us in the “see text” section for Sunday. It remains to be seen how the severe threat shakes out. They are kinda riding the fence by giving us a 5% chance right now but the HPC has the heavy rain to our west. Those two things don’t seem to jive. We’ll keep you informed on Saturday about what to expect on Sunday….Ike should show itself by then as to what shape it is in and how it interacts with a cold front moving across the area. There have been lots of tornado warnings in Louisiana.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT…CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 952 MB. THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN… SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND…WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11. IKE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL…IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ADDITIONALLY…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 16/0600Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN