NHC No Longer Tracking Fay; Attention Turns Toward Caribbean
August 24, 2008

24-Hour Rain to 8AM Sunday

24-Hour Rain to 8AM Sunday

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

A couple of things of interest. The National Hurricane Center has lost interest and passed on the tracking of Fay to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The HPC track goes into Louisiana or Mississippi and by Thursday actually takes it to near Lexington, KY. So, I stand by my previous assertion that rain will make its way into the Louisville Metro Area by the end of the week.

Note some of the rain totals. Tallahassee was listed at over 19 inches and I bet that it continues for part of Sunday.

0824 Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z

0824 Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z

The NHC is taking a harder look at Invest 94L that you and I have been eyeballing

0824 Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph

0824 Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph

for a week. For the first time, they have inserted the word “depression” into the discussion. You will find the Invest 94L Spaghetti Model and the Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph. Do not take them as gospel. However, the trend this time around is for not as many models making it a hurricane as the data suggests many models advertise interaction with land masses. Invest 95L remains out there. It still appears to be more of a concern for mariners…unless you are a Seattle Mariner and then your concern is the American League West basement.

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008 …HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH DESPITE A WEAKENING FAY… FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. AT 1000 AM CDT…15Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST…OR ABOUT 70 MILES..113 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND 25 MILES…40 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY…BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR STALL ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE FAY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH..48 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT …ALABAMA… VALLEY 0.4 NNW 7.12 CAMDEN 1.0 NNE 6.83 CLIO 0.2 SSW 6.38 ELFAULA 1.0 SSE 6.26 TROY 1.5 ESE 6.21 WETUMPKA 5.0 SE 6.14 CLOPTON 0.1 SW 5.96 LADONIA 13.2 SSW 5.90 ALEXANDER CITY 10.0 SW 5.77 PINE HILL 3.6 WSW 5.76 SYLACAUGS 9.2 S 5.65 TROY 5.60 OZARK 5.36 DOTHAN 4.17 AUBURN 4.04 MONTGOMERY 3.81 BIRMINGHAM 3.28 ALABASTER 2.77 ANNISTON 2.14 EVERGREEN 2.14 TUSCALOOSA 2.10 …FLORIDA… MELBOURNE BEACH 3.9 SSE 25.28 COCOA BEACH 24.38 CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83 DELTONA 22.69 SATELLITE BEACH 22.40 PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44 DELTONA 2.9 SE 20.94 MELBOURNE 7.0 NW 20.57 ORANGE CITY 19.81 HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70 TALLAHASSEE 5.7 SE 19.17 MALABAR 2.9 NNW 19.00 WACISSA 1.1 SW 18.09 SANFORD 0.4 ENE 18.03 LAKEWOOD PARK 0.5 SW 17.90 DE LAND 4.5 NW 17.20 COCOA 5.8 NW 16.77 MICCO 4.5 NW 16.26 LONGWOOD 2.3 WNW 15.70 EUSTIS 1.2 SE 15.56 HOBE SOUND 3.9 NW 15.01 SANFORD 14.97 PALM BAY 14.89 NORTH MAPLES 7.3 E 14.42 JACKSONVILLE 7.3 SW 14.40 DE LEON SPRINGS 0.4 SE 14.23 FORT PIERCE 11.58 JACKSONVILLE 11.58 …GEORGIA… VALDOSTA (MOODY AFB) 8.54 ALBANY 4.92 SAVANNAH (HUNTER AAF) 4.41 ALMA 3.99 FORT BENNING 3.66 SAVANNAH 3.16 COLUMBUS 3.15 BRUNSWICK 2.89 MACON 1.49 …LOUISIANA… LAFAYETTE 1.31 NEW ORLEANS (NEW) 1.24 BOOTHVILLE 1.16 …MISSISSIPPI… JACKSON (WFO) 3.92 MERIDIAN (NAS/MCCAIN) 3.74 COLUMBUS (AFB) 3.39 MERIDIAN 2.54 GREENWOOD 2.43 JACKSON 2.40 NATCHEZ 2.15 VICKSBURG 1.37 TUPELO 1.31 …SOUTH CAROLINA… BEAUFORT 5.34 CHARLESTON 2.67 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA…EASTERN LOUISIANA…WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING….WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LIGHTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE… EASTERN GEORGIA… EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…32.0 N…89.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. MUSHER FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 24/1500Z 31.6N 88.2W 12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 91.1W 24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 90.9W 36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.3N 90.3W 48HR VT 26/1200Z 31.8N 89.6W 72HR VT 27/1200Z 33.9N 87.7W…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z 38.0N 84.0W…REMNANT LOW

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