The US Banks Were Bailed Out in the Past, But Uncle Sam Wasn’t The Savior September 22, 2010

Banks Have Been Bailed Out Many Times in US History

Dow Jones Since 1900

On This Date in History In 1906, San Francisco had a great earthquake. The effects of that quake led to a financial trouble spot that turned into a full-blown economic crisis. At that time, there was no central bank or Federal Reserve. With the system stretched by the stress of the San Francisco quake, some doofus tried to corner the copper market and when that failed, all of the banks who made loans to back the scheme were in trouble so they started calling other loans and the Panic of 1907 was created. People lost confidence in the system and several banks  failed. A bailout was needed. President Theodore Roosevelt was claiming that everything was fundamentally in great shape and threatened a federal takeover of all trusts if the bankers and financial gurus couldn’t get thier houses in order. Who came to the rescue? None other than J. Pierpont Morgan was the savior; the same JP Morgan who had bailed out the system in 1871 and 1895 and the same JP Morgan that is related to JP Morgan Chase who bailed out Bear Stearns in 2008.   To fend off the threats from Teddy Roosevelt, Morgan huddled with his banking brethren and convinced them that they needed to work together to salvage the system in order to save all of their hides and the future of the banking system.   He also convinced the Secretary of the Treasury to pony up $25 million to the effort. The recession did not turn into a depression and the 1907 Panic led directly to the eventual establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

JP Morgan May Have Looked Like a Wild Old Man But He Saved Uncle Sam Bailed Out the Nation Several Times

While the numbers are not as large…not the $700 billion to $800 Biillion that the banking bailout became in 2008-09, the other numbers are not as large either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39% in 1907. On this date in 2008, the market had lost and gained about two percent over the previous month and politicians ran around making comparisons to the Great Depression when a comparison to 1907 might have been a better barometer . In order to equal the fall of the 1907 panic, the Dow that was around 11,015 on September 22, 2008 would have had to fall to 7000 and it was on this date in 2008 that the Dow fell some 300 points and arguably didn’t stop falling until March 9, 2009 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed out at 6547.   So, while it was, and in some measure still is, an extremely difficult and precarious situation, it was not totally unprecedented and it wasn’t necessarily a good match with the Great Depression. It’s just the depression of the 1930′s is all the general public, politicians and most people in the media know about.  Several times in the past,  it was JP Morgan engineering a bailout with some government help and this time it was the Federal Reserve and Uncle Sam engineering a bailout with some other private help. When you hear also of rumors that today’s problem was a plot by those who stand to profit, keep in mind that in 1907 it was rumored that the banks had caused the whole panic just to line their pockets.   Aside from the Great Depression, there were a bunch of “panics” in financial circles and the resultant recessions or depressions  that came fairly regularly…perhaps too regularly. The Dow is currently in a trading range between about 9900 and 10,70o and, in recent days, there has been a declaration that the recession is over. 

Year	Unemployment rate
1923-1929	3.3
1930	8.9
1931	15.9
1932	23.6
1933	24.9
1934	21.7
1935	20.1
1936	17.0
1937	14.3
1938	19.0
1939	17.2
1940	14.6
1941	9.9
1942	4.7

With unemployment still hovering near 10%, the rebound of the stock market and the claim that the recession is over are by no means a guarantee that the market and economy won’t go back in the tank.  Nevertheless, both are, and especially the Dow Jones, are certainly at a different place than anyone in March 2009 could have foreseen.   If something happens that causes a big drop in stock prices again, then maybe we can start to refer to the Great Depression as it relates to the stock market, which is but one indicator.   Unemployment is pretty bad but its more like the late 1970s and early 1980′s, not the 1930′s.

No Hoovervilles Today Like in 1930

The big thing about the Great Depression is that its depths were so far reaching that it led to new regulation by the government into financial markets than had ever been contemplated by the founders or anyone else in an effort to try to control the economy such that these setbacks wouldn’t be so deep or so frequent. To a large degree, it has worked pretty well but to expect these things to never happen or think its some sinister plot just is to not accept reality.

Sometimes, news people say they need to give commentary to “give perspective” or a particular news event. Dan Rather used to defend journalists providing analysis instead of just reporting for that specific reason. Yet, it helps if those giving “analysis and perspective” had some perspective in the first place. It’s probably hyperbole and just outright ignorance that media types or politicians trot out the Great Depression comparison.  I remember when President Clinton was running for his first term against George H. W. Bush, they said then that it was the worst economy since the Great Depression.  It certainly wasn’t even close to the economy of the Great Depression then and it’s arguably not the same now.   It’s probably best to leave that moniker on the shelf until its truly warranted.   Let’s hope it can stay on the shelf and we can call this the great recovery. Some of us need a job, not panic.

Weather Bottom Line:  We will continue with this mid to upper 90′s nonsense through Friday.  A front will be approaching then and will pass through.  As it does so, our rain chances will go up. Trouble is that we are so dry there may not be enough moisture for this guy to give us as much rain as one might ordinarly expect from a strong front.  But, it’s a chance.  The good thing is that it will knock the mercury down to the upper 70′s to low 80′s for the weekend and it may be the sign of a pattern change.  Some models are showing a big ol’ storm dropping down into the central plains and the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week.

Stock Market Crashed in 1929; 80 years later some say we are in recovery October 29, 2009

Brooklyn Newspaper Oct 30 1929

Until you have a job, it's a depression, not a recession or recovery

The GDP numbers for the third quarter of this year came out today and after months of contraction in the economy, the US Gross Domestic Product rose by about 3.5%. How can that be? Some say we are in recovery while others say it can’t last.  Critics point out that there was about a 23% increase in durable goods and that the overall increase cannot be sustained. They point to the US government’s “cash for clunkers” program and that created a one-time, artificial jump in new car sales. It is said that it is not sustainable. Then there was the real estate numbers which also rose about 23%. That too, critics say, was a result of another government program of giving several thousands of dollars in tax credits to first time home buyers. That too is seen as unsustainable. Interest rates have been near zero for a long time now and now there are fears that the Fed will raise interest rates, though others point out that a rise in interest rates would indicate that the economy can handle it and that the economy is indeed pulling out of the recession.  Then there is this oddity.  Edmunds.com is a site that is an advocate for car buyers.  Their analysis of the cash for clunkers program says the government spent $24,000 per car sold, which is about 6 times more than the actual allowance provided.  They say that only 125, 000 of the 691,000 cars sold were directly tied to cash for clunkers.  While that’s a criticism, is that not also an argument that car sales were indeed real and not a facade?  Yet, the government disputed their numbers as if to say, “hey…those car sales were too ginned up by our program and not a real indicator of growth!”    Of course, theI have yet to hear about this duplicity in the media.

Who knows?  No one predicted the big decline in the economy, yet we are supposed to believe that the sages know what will happen in the future.  If you look at the chart below, you see that after the crash of ’29, the markets rose several times over the next 3 years, only to fall farther.  So, who knows what will happen.  One thing that is for certain.  Millions remain without jobs and until those who want to work can get work, it matters little what the data shows or the experts say.  If you have a job, its been a recession.  If you are out of work, it’s a depression.  Which is what began 80 years ago.

1929 Wall Street Panic

On This Date in History: On this date in 1929, the stock market crashed. The Dow had been quite

Dow Chart Before & After 1929 Crash

volatile before suffering a sharp drop on Oct 24 and then again on Oct 28. On Tuesday October 29, 1929, a day that became known as “Black Tuesday,” The market collapsed. 16 million shares of stock were sold as prices tumbled with a loss estimated at $9 Billion, which was a lot of money back then. The decline continued and by mid-November losses totaled some $30 Billion. (Video from 1929)

Fortunes were lost and eventually jobs were lost

Panic at the Exchange 1929

and then there was the Depression that followed. Many historians of economics suggest that it was not the stock market crash that caused the depression, but rather governmental action and reaction that caused the economic malaise. Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act that raised tarriffs on 3200 imports by 60% in late September. On October 21, Congress defeated an attempt to exempt agricultural goods. Three days later, the market began its decline. President Hoover could have vetoed the measure but instead signed it 7 months after its passage and the resulting market crash. Prices on many good rose. Taxes were also increased. This is why you hear politicians today say that now is not the time to raise taxes and not the time to be closing the global market place.

Why would they say this now?  Last year, we were  in a stock market decline with shares falling some 40% from the all time highs from the prior year. I have compared this with the panic of 1907.(Click Here) However, I must say that history is not prescriptive and what happened in the past does not necessarily repeat itself. The times and conditions are different on a number of levels.

Dow: A Long Recovery

Nevertheless, if you must look at history as a guide, you need to know the truth. In general if you bought stock at the highs in 1929, you did not see your portfolio back to even for 25 years. Some individual stocks took longer than that. The speculation running rampant in the “Roaring 20′s” was probably more comparable to the run up in the market in the 1990′s than this past run. The decline in the late 1920′s into the 1930′s was about 87%. An 87% of a drop from the Oct 2007 highs would be about 1700 which would take us back to the 1980′s. Last fall’s decline took us back to numbers we had in late 2001 and early 2002 then they fell even farther before bottoming out in March 2009.  Now, we have rebounded to near 10,000.  So, we’ve gone up and down and up and down again in the past 10 years, which is not comparable to the 1920′s, 30′s, 40′s and 50′s.

Anyway, with all that in mind, I offer you this. It is an excerpt of a letter written by Earnest Elmo Caulkins to

Caulkins: Confident Investor

the New York Times on this date in 1929, the day after “Black Tuesday.” Caulkins was a successful advertising executive who had a rather extraordinary life story.(Click Here) He was deaf but was an achiever who did not let his disability get in his way. It’s really remarkable when you consider that he did this in the late 19th and early 20th century when it was particularly difficult for deaf individuals living in a hearing world.

He began by saying “I have a feeling that fewer persons are affected by the stock market drop than one would infer from the figures, just as fewer persons were affected by the previous rises.” That can be said today but not entirely. Today, millions of Americans have pension plans and 401K plans that are affected. For instance, I have a 401K but its decline does not affect my standard of living today.

He goes on to say that one day, the men on the market decide his AT&T stock is worth $310 and a few weeks later $232. He bought the stock at $98, so he is disappointed but he doesn’t consider it a loss. First off, he points out that its still more than twice as much as what he paid for it. So, to suggest that lumping he and other together and say that millions have been “lost” is a false implication. Compared to the previous day its a loss but compared to a few weeks before, he’s even and compared to prior to that, its a gain. I think what he is pointing to is the only difference is time. Millions of shares were NOT traded and for those who did not trade, what was a great position of happiness and wealth in September was being characterized as a position of gloom and despair in late October.

He went on to review his portfolio and said that his previous high profits were on paper and his recent losses were on paper and reasoned that the two cancel each other out. He concluded with a story of a farmer who told his friend that Mr. Stebbins offered him $200 for his horse. The friend replied, “But Stebbins ain’t got $200.” The farmer answered, “yes, but ain’t it a good offer?”

Much of what Caulkins says here is true today. The Dow at the end of Jan 1980 was at 874.40. Oct 28, 2008 it closed at over 9,000. Yet, in October 2007, the Dow hit 14,000. When I worked at Merrill Lynch, my office mate, Martin Feinberg, used to say “Stocks go up and stocks go down.” They do. The question here is time. We like it when stocks go up quickly but then get upset when they fall quickly, as if one is normal and the other is a crisis when, in fact, both signal volatility.

I have always reasoned that it is not wise to “play the market.” Over the past 30 years, people have entered the stock market like they are going into Churchill Downs to bet on the ponies. Men like Caulkins entered as investors.

Lombardi:Inspirational Quotes

I guess what I am saying is that it’s silly for people to claim this is 1929 all over again. I took a look at 1907 but I never suggested that this was 1907 all over again. That was then. This is now. The future has yet to be written. It is often said that it’s not whether we face adversity but how we react to adversity that counts. I’ve read a quote from Vince Lombardi(inspirational quotes) (origin probably elsewhere) that said “the greatest accomplishment is not in never failing, but rising again after you fail.” The past is the past and its how we conduct our future, whether it be governmental policy or personal actions, that really counts. With global intervention, coordination and new policies, this may be the beginning of a turnaround and, then again, it may be the beginning of a long fall. Who knows for certain? But, I do know that nothing lasts forever either way. If you believe that the sun rises every day and will again on this nation, this economy and the global economy, then invest in the future. If you do not, then stay out of the market. In my view, its as simple as that. Mr Caulkins overcame his disability and had great confidence in the future. You need to ask yourself if you have the same ideals.

Rain but not as much as feared

Weather Bottom Line:  I made a mistake yesterday.  I thought that Halloween was on Friday. It’s on Saturday.  I never know what day it is.  I took a quick looksee at the models and I’ve got a bit of a dillema.  See, the GFS numerically claims that rain begins lightly on Friday morning then more in earnest by late Friday and then carries it through Sunday for a total of about 1.33″.  Yet, when you look at it graphically, it advertises all of the rain is out of here by Saturday afternoon.  Now, the NAM is a bit more consistent as the numbers reveal .77″ from Friday evening through midday on Saturday and the graphic presentation shows the same thing.  Either way, neither model is bullish on the big rain event that loomed in yesterday’s numbers and some folks on TV decided to take as Gospel.  It was never really forecast but, the area was reasonably close to keep an eye out for that possibility. 

Now the HPC rain forecast has come in line with what my contention was several days ago, which was that the convergence zone is really in the lower Mississippi Valley and I had reasoned that would be the area of big storms and that it might tend to cut off the moisture our way.  Well, now the 3-day total QPF from the HPC indicates over 4.5″ inches of rain in that convergence region and just about an inch around here.  All of that seems reasonable.  So, my bottom line is that it will be cool for the trick or treaters but probably dry.  Look for rain activity from say noon on Friday to noon on Saturday.

Recent Bank Bailout Just One of Many-Uncle Sam Doing Work That JP Morgan Did September 22, 2009

Banks Have Been Bailed Out Many Times in US History

Dow Jones Since 1900

On This Date in History  In 1906, San Francisco had a great earthquake.  The effects of that quake led to a financial trouble spot that turned into a full-blown economic crisis.  At that time, there was no central bank or Federal Reserve. With the system stretched by the stress of the San Francisco quake, some doofus tried to corner the copper market and when that failed, all of the banks who made loans to back the scheme were in trouble.  started calling other loans.  People lost confidence in the banks as several failed. A bailout was needed.   President Theodore Roosevelt was claiming that everything was in great shape and was threatening a federal takeover of all trusts if the bankers and financial gurus couldn’t get thier houses in order. Who comes to the rescue?  None other than  J. Pierpont Morgan was the savior the same JP Morgan who had bailed out the system in 1871 and 1895 and the same JP Morgan that is related to JP Morgan Chase who bailed out Bear Stearns last year. He got together with his banking brethren and convinced them that they needed to work together to salvage the system in order to save all of their hides and the future of the nation. He also convinced the Secretary of the Treasury to pony up $25 million to the effort. The recession did not turn into a depression and the 1907 Panic led directly to the eventual establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

JP Morgan May Have Looked Like a Wild Old Man But He Saved Uncle Sam Bailed Out the Nation Several Times

While the numbers are not as large…not the $700 billion to $800 Biillion that the banking bailout became in 2008-09, the other numbers are not as large either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39% in 1907.   On this date in 2008, the market had  lost and gained about two  percent  over the previous month and politicians ran around making comparisons to the Great Depression when a comparison to 1907 might have been a better barometer . In order to equal the fall of the 1907 panic, then a Dow that was around 11,015 on September 22, 2008 would have had to fall to 7000 and it was on this date in 2008 that the Dow fell some 300 points and arguably didn’t stop falling until  March 9, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down to 6547.   So, while it was, and in some measure still is, an extremely difficult and potentially catostrophic situation, it was not totally unprecedented and it wasn’t necessarily a good match with the Great Depression.  It’s just that’s all the general public and certainly most people in the media know about.  Before it was JP Morgan engineering a bailout with some government help and this time its the Federal Reserve and Uncle Sam engineering a bailout with some other private help. When you hear also of rumors that today’s problem was a plot by those who stand to profit, keep in mind that in 1907 it was rumored that the banks had caused the whole panic just to line their pockets.   Aside from the Great Depression, there were a bunch of “panics” in financial circles and the resultant recessions or depressions came fairly regularly…in fact to regularly.  The Dow is now knocking back at the 10,00o door and while it is by no means a guarantee that it won’t go back down, it’s certainly at a different place than anyone in March could have foreseen.  If something happens that causes a big drop again, then maybe we can start to refer to the Great Depression as it relates to the stock market, which is but one indicator.  Unemployment is bad but its more like the late 1970s and early 1980′s, not the 1930′s. 

No Hoovervilles Today Like in 1930

The big thing about the Great Depression is that its depths were so far reaching that it led to new regulation by the government into financial markets than had ever been contemplated by the founders or anyone else in an effort to try to control the economy such that these setbacks wouldn’t be so deep or so frequent.  To a large degree, it has worked pretty well but to expect these things to never happen or think its some sinister plot just is to not accept reality.

Sometimes, news people say they need to give commentary to “give perspective” or a particular news event. Dan Rather used to defend journalists providing analysis instead of just reporting for that specific reason. Yet, it helps if those giving “analysis and perspective” had some perspective in the first place.  It’s probably hyperbole and just outright ignorance that media types or politicians trot out the Great Depression comparison.  It’s probably best to leave that moniker on the shelf until its truly warranted. Let’s hope it can stay on the shelf and we can call this the great recovery.  Some of us need a job, not panic.

Pattern Conducive for Heavy Rain Threat in SE US

Weather Bottom Line: The pattern has set up as expected.  That is with almost a cutoff low in the west as part of a big trof that dug out in the west.  The long wave pattern is such that with the low to our west and a surface high in the extreme southeast, there is a very strong southerly flow into the Southeastern quadrant of the country.  That has resulted in the expected influx of deep Gulf moisture.  With the trof situated as it is, little disturbances rotate around anywhere from going through the Ohio Valley to going through the Dixie states.  With abundant deep moisture, this sets the stage for potential flooding events anywhere in the region.  It was our turn on Sunday and then parts of Georgia took a hit on Monday.  This pattern will remain in place for the rest of the week.  The result for us will be muggy nights with fog potential each morning.  We will be cloudy quite often than not with any sunshine that comes about to create convection in the afternoons producing at least scattered t’storms.  Afternoon highs should be held in the lower 80′s by the time of year, cloud cover, rain and the moisture content.  Rain chances will remain in the picture through the week with the potential of any situation that develops to produce very heavy rain.  The pattern will shift over the weekend.  The trof out west will move east and lift somewhat with a push of colder air behind.  I would think that any strong storms would be most likely on Sunday or Saturday night with the front.  The expected cooler weather will get here for next week.

A Look At The Stock Market Crash of 1929; Freeze Watch? October 29, 2008

NAM 12hr 925mb 1029 00Z

NWS Forecast AM Temps 1029

Freeze Watch? You know what, I looked all over the place at NOAA and National Weather Service glossaries and found no listing for a Freeze Watch. Matt Milosevich said he never heard of it before either. But, then again, he went to the University of Oklahoma. Jay Cardosi said he’s heard of it before and agreed with my assessment that it probably means that a freeze is possible but not necessarily imminent. He said typically they put out the watch 48 hours out and then either change it to a warning or cancel it. What I showed previously for the wind forecast aloft. Above, you see the NAM 12Z 10.29.08 925mb map. While those winds are running right along at near 30 kts at about 2500 feet, ours at the surface will be still in the 7-15 mph range. Because of the breeze and low dewpoints, we won’t have any frost. We will mix down some warmer air from aloft so what might be a low in the mid 20′s area wide on a calm, clear night will be upper 20′s or mainly low 30′s. (see explainer previous post) So, the Freeze Watch got changed to a more conventional Freeze Warming. The airport, where no one lives, probably won’t be below freezing nor extreme southern areas…but it will still be cold. Frost will be possible on Thursday morning and by Halloween…look for a high near 70.

Brooklyn Newspaper Oct 30 1929

1929 Wall Street Panic

On This Date in History: On this date in 1929, the stock market crashed. The Dow had been quite

Dow Chart Before & After 1929 Crash

volatile before suffering a sharp drop on Oct 24 and then again on Oct 28. On Tuesday October 29, 1929, a day that became known as “Black Tuesday,” The market collapsed. 16 million shares of stock were sold as prices tumbled with a loss estimated at $9 Billion, which was a lot of money back then. The decline continued and by mid-November losses totaled some $30 Billion. (Video from 1929)

Fortunes were lost and eventually jobs were lost

Panic at the Exchange 1929

and then there was the Depression that followed. Many historians of economics suggest that it was not the stock market crash that caused the depression, but rather governmental action and reaction that caused the economic malaise. Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act that raised tarriffs on 3200 imports by 60% in late September. On October 21, Congress defeated an attempt to exempt agricultural goods. Three days later, the market began its decline. President Hoover could have vetoed the measure but instead signed it 7 months after its passage and the resulting market crash. Prices on many good rose. Taxes were also increased. This is why you hear politicians today say that now is not the time to raise taxes and not the time to be closing the global market place.

Why would they say this now? We are in a stock market decline with shares falling some 40% from the all time highs of a year ago. I have compared this with the panic of 1907.(Click Here) However, I must say that history is not prescriptive and what happened in the past does not necessarily repeat itself. The times and conditions are different on a number of levels.

Dow: A Long Recovery

Nevertheless, if you must look at history as a guide, you need to know the truth. In general if you bought stock at the highs in 1929, you did not see your portfolio back to even for 25 years. Some individual stocks took longer than that. The speculation running rampant in the “Roaring 20′s” was probably more comparable to the run up in the market in the 1990′s than this past run. The decline in the late 1920′s into the 1930′s was about 87%.  An 87% of a drop from the Oct 2007 highs would be about 1700 which would take us back to the 1980′s. This latest fall took us back to numbers we had in late 2001 and early 2002. So, we’ve gone up and down and up and down again in the past 10 years, which is not comparable to the 1920′s, 30′s, 40′s and 50′s.

Anyway, with all that in mind, I offer you this. It is an excerpt of a letter written by Earnest Elmo Caulkins to

Caulkins: Confident Investor

the New York Times on this date in 1929, the day after “Black Tuesday.” Caulkins was a successful advertising executive who had a rather extraordinary life story.(Click Here) He was deaf but was an achiever who did not let his disability get in his way. It’s really remarkable when you consider that he did this in the late 19th and early 20th century when it was particularly difficult for deaf individuals living in a hearing world.

He began by saying “I have a feeling that fewer persons are affected by the stock market drop than one would infer from the figures, just as fewer persons were affected by the previous rises.” That can be said today but not entirely. Today, millions of Americans have pension plans and 401K plans that are affected. For instance, I have a 401K but its decline does not affect my standard of living today.

He goes on to say that one day, the men on the market decide his AT&T stock is worth $310 and a few weeks later $232. He bought the stock at $98, so he is disappointed but he doesn’t consider it a loss. First off, he points out that its still more than twice as much as what he paid for it. So, to suggest that lumping he and other together and say that millions have been “lost” is a false implication. Compared to the previous day its a loss but compared to a few weeks before, he’s even and compared to prior to that, its a gain. I think what he is pointing to is the only difference is time. Millions of shares were NOT traded and for those who did not trade, what was a great position of happiness and wealth in September was being characterized as a position of gloom and despair in late October.

He went on to review his portfolio and said that his previous high profits were on paper and his recent losses were on paper and reasoned that the two cancel each other out. He concluded with a story of a farmer who told his friend that Mr. Stebbins offered him $200 for his horse. The friend replied, “But Stebbins ain’t got $200.” The farmer answered, “yes, but ain’t it a good offer?”

Much of what Caulkins says here is true today. The Dow at the end of Jan 1980 was at 874.40. Oct 28, 2008 it closed at over 9,000. Yet, in October 2007, the Dow hit 14,000. When I worked at Merrill Lynch, my office mate, Martin Feinberg, used to say “Stocks go up and stocks go down.” They do. The question here is time. We like it when stocks go up quickly but then get upset when they fall quickly, as if one is normal and the other is a crisis when, in fact, both signal volatility.

I have always reasoned that it is not wise to “play the market.” Over the past 30 years, people have entered the stock market like they are going into Churchill Downs to bet on the ponies. Men like Caulkins entered as investors.

Lombardi:Inspirational Quotes

I guess what I am saying is that it’s silly for people to claim this is 1929 all over again. I took a look at 1907 but I never suggested that this was 1907 all over again. That was then. This is now. The future has yet to be written. It is often said that it’s not whether we face adversity but how we react to adversity that counts. I’ve read a quote from Vince Lombardi(inspirational quotes) (origin probably elsewhere) that said “the greatest accomplishment is not in never failing, but rising again after you fail.” The past is the past and its how we conduct our future, whether it be governmental policy or personal actions, that really counts. With global intervention, coordination and new policies, this may be the beginning of a turnaround and, then again, it may be the beginning of a long fall. Who knows for certain? But, I do know that nothing lasts forever either way. If you believe that the sun rises every day and will again on this nation, this economy and the global economy, then invest in the future. If you do not, then stay out of the market. In my view, its as simple as that. Mr Caulkins overcame his disability and had great confidence in the future. You need to ask yourself if you have the same ideals.