Hurricane Alex Spaghetti Models, Satellite Loops and Discussion June 30, 2010

Click on Image for Latest Loop of Hurricane Alex IR Rainbow Image

Hurricane Alex Visible Satellite Click for latest loop image

Sometimes, we react too weakly to the prospects of a hurricane.  But, since the damage wrought by Wilma, Charlie, Ivan, Gustav, Ike and Katrina over the past few years it seems that the pendulum has swung the other way.  I believe that it is better to be very prepared so an over reaction would be preferable to lack of preparation.  However, I am concerned that we may end up with a chicken little syndrome.  The memories of Katrina and Ike and all the rest are so fresh that it’s not likely that people will become complacent soon, but recently I saw evidence that the pump may be getting primed for the public to perhaps get back into the “boy who cried wolf” state of mind. 

Hurricane Alex Spaghetti Model track 12Z June 30 2010

At the end of last week,  Alex came meandering off of the Yucatan and was intact sufficiently for it to regain its Tropical Storm status pretty quickly.  Now, it was well over 1000 miles from Houston yet the message signs on the freeways of Houston read, “Hurricane forming in Gulf. Fill your tanks.”  Now, I understand the need to alert motorists so that the city could avoid the last minute gasoline shortages that occured when Hurricane Ike was approaching the area.  But, all indications were that the storm that was so far away was going to move into Northern Mexico with the far reaching possibility being South Texas, which is still hundreds of miles away from the Houston-Galveston area.  When I first encountered those signs on Sunday, I thought “I wonder if the forecast data has changed?”  It had not.  In fact by then the modeling data had become more concentrated for a Northern Mexico landfall. 

Hurricane Alex Spaghetti Model Intensity 12Z June 30 2010

I read in the newspapers of how Alex could enter the oil spill zone.  That was not in the official forecast.  By the end of last week it was apparent that a ridge in the Gulf would not break down sufficiently or soon enough to allow the storm to turn North and if it did turn North it would be most likely to do after it made landfall in Northern Mexico as it went around the ridge.  Now, Alex is a pretty broad storm so its wind field is a bit larger than a conventional tropical storm or hurricane of its intensity so the winds did shift in the Northern Gulf region and start pushing the oil in a different direction.  And with a cold front approaching, the winds picked up resulting in some containment operations to be suspended.  But all over the radio the news was saying that Alex was the cause and that is not entirely accurate.  The approaching cold front was the real catalyst.  Then, all day long the radio news reports were saying that it was going to be a hurricane at any moment.  The word “hurricane” raises the old blood pressure a little more than “tropical storm.”  Alex did not gain hurricane status until early Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Alex NHC official Forecast Track 10AM June 30 2010

It’s good to be cautious and prepared. It’s necessary in fact.  However, there is a danger of over hyping potentialities to the point that, when its really warranted, no one will listen.  Someone asked me where Alex was going about 4 days ago and I had said that I thought that Tampico Mexico seemed like a good bet.  Then I added the caveats and the person says “so ‘they” don’t know.”   Well, “I” am not “they” and there was a fairly good probability that Mexico would be the target.  Its just that when a storm is that far out and there is so much time that variabilities in the longer term solution tend to become greater and so certainty is diminished to some degree.  But, the Gulf Ridge was so strong anything dramatically different would be really tough to have come about.  All I am saying is that it would be wise to read beyond the headlines this hurricane season.  Often, the headline does not match reality.

N. Atlantic Total Precipitable Water-Note The Dry Air coming from Africa in contrast to huge moisture available with Hurrcane Alex

The cold front that came through the Ohio Valley and knocked about 10-15 degrees off the temperatures and lowered humidity greatly is not expected to make its way all the way to the Gulf Coast.  That is tough to do this time of year and the Gulf ridge of high pressure will not break down enough for that.  The trof extends into East Texas but it really gets weak.  By early Wednesday morning, Hurricane Alex was nearly stationary as a result of it being stuck between two ridges.  It was on the western edge of the Gulf ridge with a ridge in Nebraska coming down behind the front to replace it.   That little weakness between the ridges allowed Alex to edge a bit farther Northwest as it began to gain some forward speed after sunrise.  What  will happen is that the Nebraska ridge will nose further to the South, more or less wash out the boundary over East Texas and steer Alex with a more westward trajectory.    Its not going to get to Tampico but I doubt that it gets to Brownsville.  I would think about 100 miles south of the Rio Grande River seems about right.

NASA TRMM Radar 1348Z June 30-Heavy Hurricane Alex Rain Well offshore

As mentioned before, its a very broad storm so, even though it has a central pressure in the neighborhood of 960 mb, the models really don’t intensify it that much or to the level that such a pressure has the capability to support.  Is it possible that it has a rapid intensification before landfall if it consolodates?  Yes, which is why its good to be cautious.  But its running out of time.  Hurricane Ike had a pressure that would support a much stronger hurricane but it remained a very broad storm so its maximum winds were relativley weak but the strong wind field was very large.  I suspect that will be the case with Alex.  It’s winds might get to a maximum of  say, 90 mph in isolated areas but the 45-50 mph winds may be several hundred miles away.

Parts of South Texas Have More Cows that People

Below is the official Alex discussion from the National Hurricane Center for 10AM on Wednesday June 30 2010.  Port Isabel is a lovely place on South Padre Island near Brownsville but the region is certainly not a major metropolitan area.  The counties north of Brownsville are sparsely populated with the single highway servicing places like Encino, Armstrong and Raymondville well away from the coast.  The Padre Island National Seashore is off limits to any development so once you get north of Port Isabel on Padre Island, no one lives there.  About half way between Corpus Christi and Brownsville is Kleberg County which probably has more cows than people as that county is almost entirely made up of the King Ranch.  There is a sign on the one highway that warns of no gas for many miles because it passes through the ranch.    Bottom line is that, barring some unforseen weird alteration, Alex will cause beach erosion, disruption of lives for the July 4th weekend and probably bring some damage.  I would think that the biggest threat will be inland flooding and also tornadoes, which are always a concern with a landfalling hurricane.  Its not good, its not a great thing and will be an issue for those in its path and the storm surge may cause some problems for coastal beaches and coastal marine interests…but this is no Katrina.

.

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING WITH T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB REACHING 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 958 MB AND 961 MB.
HOWEVER…BOTH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ON THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND WINDS ARE SPREAD OUT IN
OTHER QUADRANTS. GIVEN SUCH A LOW MINIMUM PRESSURE…THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION…THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AND ALEX COULD
REACH CATEGORY TWO BEFORE LANDFALL.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE
REPLACED BY A RIDGE SOON. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ALEX
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN FACT…MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A SHARP
TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST DEPENDING UPON THE
FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN EACH MODEL. THIS TRACK SHOULD
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER…ALEX IS A LARGE
HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING A GREAT
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  RADAR DATA SHOW THAT STRONG SQUALLS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
COASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1500Z 23.8N  95.5W    70 KT
12HR VT     01/0000Z 24.1N  96.7W    85 KT
24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.5N  98.5W    45 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    25 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Chimp Challenges Experts For 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast May 28, 2010

Hurricane Andrew Sequence Aug 23, 24, 25, 1992

"Dr. James Hansimian"

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: Let us begin with the 2010 hurricane season prognastication of Dr. James Hansimian(video).   He is predicting 6 to 8 hurricanes for the 2010 season.  Never heard of him?  You probably will.  You see, he is a chimpanzee whom the National Center for Public Policy Research has put on the record in an effort to emphasize how little humans really know about the climate.  They claim that NOAA has been “wrong three out of the last 4 years and 7 of the last 11.”  They say they are not hiring “Dr. Hansimian” to ridicule  the effort and dedication of climate and hurricane specialists but instead to highlight that, even with the greatest minds, competence, tools and methodology, humans do not have a complete understanding of the climate.  They say that they will make another video in December 2010 of Dr. Hansimian and determine who was more correct.  In the meantime, let us look what some of the leading authorities have to say. 

Hurricane Headlines Used to Contain Facts, Not Sensational Hyperbole

Now, I already had a pretty good idea of what the National Hurricane Center would say.  What is amazing to me though is the media coverage.  I looked at the headline from USA Today and it says, Fierce Hurricane Season Predicted.   CNN had a story about the exact same subject but its link was a more subdued, “Hurricane Season Could be Above Average.”   Nevertheless, the actual headline to the story was a more menacing, “Hurricane Season Could be ‘Active’ or “Extremely Active.’”  AFP via Yahoo News was even more dramatic by trumpeting, “2010 Hurricane Season May Be Worst on Record.”   But, Reuters via Yahoo News had a little different spin as its headline read, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005.”   Fox News says, “Hurricane Season Could be Strongest Ever Say Top Meteorologists.”  I have yet to find any quote from anyone at NOAA or the NHC that verifies any  of these headlines except fo the one from CNN, which not-coincidentally is the least sensational.   Interestingly, CBS4 in South Florida took a different tact.  Instead of focusing on the threat to the United States, instead its headline was, “NHC Director Fears For Haiti This Hurricane Season.”  That one is right on the money.  A tropical cyclone for Haiti of any magnitude would not be good and they get nailed in one form or another very frequently.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Names 2005 to 2010 (In 2005 they ran out of names so went to Alpha, Beta...etc.)

So, what did was the National Hurricane Center 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast on May 27?   To begin with, the press release from the NHC had a headline that read, “NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic  Hurricane Season.”  Note that this headline lacks the hyperbole and extreme adjectives of the media.  As usual, they give themselves a wide berth by saying that there will be between 14 and 23 named storms.  That would be tropical cyclones of tropical storm force or more.  The difference between 14 and 23 is pretty large.  Eight to 14 of those storms are expected to be hurricanes with 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes which means category 3 or greater.  For the past several years, NOAA taking some of the thunder from the NHC.  I believe they are in the process of changing the name of the NHC to the NOAA National Hurricane Center; I suppose it’s an effort to establish that its a governmental agency.  In any event, the initial quote from their press release is not from an NHC forecaster or the Director.  Instead, its from the Under-Secretary of Commerce, who said, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record.”   Notice she said “If” and “could” and related it to “one of the more active” seasons.  The reason they give is warm ocean waters, no El Nino and a decadal cycle.  The last one is the most significant.  Accepted science generally has concluded that the Atlantic season goes in cycles of about 30 years in which there is great activity and, conversely, 30 years with low activity.  Since 1995, we have been in an “active era.” 

2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Now, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the most active in recorded history.  Keep in mind that it fell in part of the current “active era” and that recorded history is limited.  The first hurricane tracked by satellite was Hurricane Camille in 1969 so prior to that, only ship reports were able to confirm hurricanes and ships kinda like to avoid storms so its possible there were several over the years that were missed.  Anyway, in 2005 there were 28 named storms with 15 hurricanes including the two notable powerful storms, Rita and Katrina.  That means, in order for the headlines of some of these media outlets to be accurate, the 2010 hurricane season would have to have 5 more named storms than the top end of the forecast and one more hurricane than the extreme forecasted.  The headlines also neglect to take into account a very important and possible caveat from the press release that could put a damper on the number of storms:

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

Dr. William Gray: Making Hurricane Season Forecasts for At least 27 Years

Now, for 27 years one of the leading hurricane forecasting expert has been Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University.  Until recent years, he was about the only one who tried to make a forecast.  The NHC lately has been getting into the game and diminishing the role of Dr. Gray.  Dr. Gray is now has handed over some of the duties to Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the pair lead the efforts at Colorado State.  Back in early April, the Colorado State University  team issued their 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and noted warm ocean temperatures and a weakening El Nino as the reason for a more active season.  However, their numbers are more pedestrian.  They suggest 15 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes.  They go a step further and say that there is a 69% probability of major hurricane striking the US which is higher than the 52% of the 20th century.   Another tropical cyclone forecasting service, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast is somewhere in between the NHC  and  CSU with 16.3 (+/- 4.1) named storms, 8.5 (+/- 2.8) hurricanes and 4 (+/- 1.7) major hurricanes.

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005

On average, the number of named storms in any given year in the North Atlantic is 10 (9.6) with 6 (5.9) hurricanes and 2.3 of those becoming major hurricanes.  So, both forecast teams are predicting an above average season.  It would seem that the folks at CSU might be a looking on the low end with an eye on the El Nino not diminishing completely to neutral until after the hurricane season has started.  The NHC seems to be banking on the El Nino coming to an end sooner, or at least allowing for that possibility, thus they have the substantially larger number of storms on the high end of their range.  But, again….Dr. Gerry Bell’s words make it sound as if they think that a La Nina condition developing is a real possibility.  The two forecasts are almost identical except that the NHC gives itself a wide berth so, if by chance there are a bunch of storms, then they can say they said so.  They also can avoid making any huge revisions as the season progresses as has been done with some initial hurricane season forecasts in the past.  The truth is, it’s just a forecast.  We’re in the middle of an active 30 year cycle and so its expected to be more active.  How much more active is an academic exercise.  In the first place, it’s impossible to predict so far out any specific disturbance developing in exactly the right conditions.  Remember, you need more than just warm water to have a tropical cyclone.   Also, just because a tropical cyclone develops, it doesn’t mean that it will hit land.  A tropical cyclone’s job in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical region to the polar region.  They don’t really care if there is land in the way or ocean. 

Just Because It's a Headline, Doesn't Mean that It's True

And one more thing….note that nothing was said about Global Warming in either the Colorado State University forecast or the National Hurricane Center outlook.  They do refer to a warm surface temperature anomoly, but that is about as close as you get.  And, if it were due to Global Warming or Climate Change, then it would stand to reason that there would be more tropical cyclones all around the world.  As it happens, the NHC forecasts a Below Average Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Beyond that, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has a 2010 NW Pacific Typhoon Season Forecast that is near average.  TSR also has a forecast for the Australian region for tropical activity to be about 10% below average.  Going by the forecasts…well above average for the North Atlantic, below average for the Eastern Pacific and Australian region and about average for the NW Pacific.  Doesn’t sound like a global climate calamity, does it?  So, if the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season does have a signficant number of hurricanes, get ready for the media reports that try to tie it to Global Warming.  But, don’t believe it.  And, if the number that actually does come about is less than forecast (as was the case in 2009) then look for an explainer, which the NHC has already conveniently put out there.  See, they’re pretty smart.  If the season is slightly above average, they can say, “we said so.”  If its way above average, they can say, “we said so.”  And if the number of storms is less than the predicted range, they can say, ” we warned you about a possible La Nina.”  All the bases are covered.  That’s what a lot of guys on TV do as they can always claim victory, no matter what, when they say “Variable cloudy skies and a 50% chance of rain.” 

NAM Friday Evening Precipitation Forecast

Penn's Store in Gravel Switch, KY Since 1845

Weather Bottom Line:  I had to go to Gravel Switch Kentucky to help the folks at Kentucky’s oldest store, Penn’s Store.  Actually, it’s not just Kentucky’s oldest store, it is considered the oldest country store in America.  I am told that it began operation in 1845, though I’ve seen published reports that claim 1850.  But, I think I’ll go with the word of the Penn family.   About a month ago, when Tennessee was getting relatively sparse coverage of flooding, Kentucky got even less coverage.  Of course, South Central  Kentucky only got 11 inches of rain and parts of Tennessee got 15-20 inches so I suppose that it fits that if Tennessee got slim coverage, then Kentucky got none.  Anyway, I was helping them clean up and rid the store of a snake and so I could not post on Thursday when the NHC  Hurricane Forecast came out.  So, I’m a day late.

GFS Monday Evening Precip Outlook

I did see a few towering cumulous clouds late in the day…about the time I was playing St. Patrick and ridding the Penn’s Store of a 4 or 5 foot snake.  On our return to Louisville, there were some pretty decent wind gusts and it was much cooler, leading me to believe that there were some decent thunderstorms around, which did not surprise me.  The weak boundary will still be in the area on Friday so we will see some scattered storms again with highs in the mid 80′s.  We warm a bit over the weekend with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80′s.  We may have an isolated t’storm on Sunday but more likely there will be scattered afternoon storms on Memorial Day.

Pioneer Makes Son’s Corpse Focus of Teachable Moment May 25, 2010

William Keil

Like Yogi, Keil was Not Your Average Bear

On This Date in History:  William Keil  was an immigrant from Germany and worked as a tailor and a medical practioner.  He had been a Methodist but turned to mysticism.  So, like Yogi, he was not your average bear.  He possessed a very strong personality and fully expressed his religious convictions such that people readily followed his words and actions.  He seems like a pretty educated man, but he was considered something of but a shade north of literate.  Nevertheless, he established a colony at Bethel, Missouri in 1844 and took the reigns as the community’s leader. 

According to this book, Not Everyone Was Happy in the Bethel Colony

The Bethel Colony  was about 45 miles west of Hannibal, MO and mainly consisted of German immigrants and was intended to be a utopian type society.  However, unlike other such experiements such as the one in New Harmony, Indiana, the Bethel Colony was reasonably successful.  Apparently, it was not successful enough to meet Keil’s liking as he felt ever crowded by secular society that continued to flow in from the East.  I suppose he knew how the American Indians must have felt.  So, he sent scouts west almost as far as he could.  The scouts staked out a claim in the Washington Territory and Keil decided that he would lead a part of the colony to a new location. 

Keil as a Young Man. Kinda Scary lookin'?

William Keil promised his son, Willie, that he could have the honor of leading the wagon train.  But, shortly before their departure, the 19-year-old Willie fell victim to malaria.  Willie’s death delayed the planned early May 1855 departure date but it did not derail the entire mission nor did it cause William Keil to break his promise.   Instead,  Keil led the first wagon from the Bethel Colony which included the preserved corpse of his son.  He did not do as a sentimentalist but instead he used his misfortune as what we might refer to as a “teachable moment.”  Keil carried the preserved corpse across the continent to illustrate to his followers the strength of the bond of a man’s word.  He promised Willie that he could lead the wagon train and I suppose that meant dead or alive. 

Marker Near Willie's Grave

 So, on this date in 1855, the bearded, somewhat rotund, Keil let loose a blast from his trumpet to signal the departure from the Bethel Colony with Willie’s coffin in the lead.  But, it was no ordinary coffin.  It was a lead-lined version and was filled with whiskey so as to preserve the body.  Colonists followed and sung funeral hymns.  If they sang all the way to Washington, it must have been the longest funeral cortege in history.  Apparently, they did so for some length of time because the Indians whom they passed along the way left them alone out of respect,  fear or awe, or in a combination of all three.

Band Behind Pioneer Hotel ca. 1877 in Aurora, Oregon

In October 1855, the colonists reached their destination.  But, Keil wasn’t too happy with the location staked out in the Willapa Valley.  He thought that it was totally unsuitable for settlement.    Nevertheless, after a five month journey, Willie finally found his resting place as the long overdue funeral ceremony took place.  Keil was almost out of money but not energy and he led the group into the Oregon Territory.  There they founded the colony of Aurora.  He acheived his objective of establishing a new colony and he kept his promise to his son.   Today, Aurora, Oregon is about 20 miles from Portland and has about 700 residents.

Not Much to Investigate with Invest 90

Invest 90 Spaghetti Model Track Shows Media's Folly

Weather Bottom Line:  To begin with, lets get the Non-Tropical Low off the SE Coast out of the way.  As I said yesterday, all of the hype in the media is way over board and if this were three months from now no one would be covering it or even really making mention.  The Weather Channel has a crew down on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and they talk about 3-5 foot waves and very little beach erosion.  The guy said something about “out bands” of rain, which is nonsense because it’s not a tropical system.  The National Hurricane Center has gone down to just a 10% chance of it developing into a subtropical cyclone, let alone a tropical system.  If you look at the spaghetti models you see that none of them take the system on land anywhere except one that wants to carry it to Europe.  Almost all of them take it east, away from the US.  It’s drifting North Northwest but is expected to turn Northeast and then at least East Northeast.  It’s a non-story except for those who want to drive ratings or to alerty people that the hurricane season is near.  I’ll post the various hurricane forecasts on Thursday.

Friday 8 AM

As for our region…same old thing.  Upper 80′s and a very small chance of isolated afternoon t’storms.  My guess is as we go into the week deeper, there will be a cap developing and that will most likely  diminish the already low prospect of isolated activity.  When you see on TV a 20% chance, that’s the old CYA forecast, just in case.  I do not think that the conditions warrant that high of a percentage.  But, when we get to Friday, a frontal boundary should be here and that will help lift this humid mess and provide a chance for rain and t’storms.  Perhaps elevating chances ahead of it on Thursday night and then carrying into Friday as I suspect this guy will be moving rather slowly by the time it gets here.   Then, for the weekend, it should be closer to seasonal temperatures.

Always Alert, Samuel Morse’s Success Came From Unlikely Origin May 24, 2010

Finding Success can be an Enigma...ask William Tell

I guess Morse Ended Up Finishing His Lafayette Painting

On This Date in History: In 1810, a young man graduated from Yale and immediately went to England to study art. He created a giant painting and a small sculpture and called them both “the Dying Hercules.” These were his most significant works and I suppose that he figured that was the best he could do and so he came home to America. He decided to paint portraits for a living. He had some works that were considered outstanding including one of Lafayette and other historical figures that were recognized for the extreme detail. Among his portraits of famous people was one of Eli Whitney. The young man gained a pretty big reputation but also was known as a man with a small income. That makes me think that if he was such a big painter, then maybe he would figure out that he needed to charge more for his paintings. I guess perhaps his reputation was good at the price he charged. Had he charged more, then maybe he wouldn’t have been so popular. Well, its a good thing for him, and for the rest of the world, that he had other pursuits to relieve his creative mind.

Signal Flags Were Still Used in Spanish American War When Other Communications Were Not Practical

The word “telegraph” derives from the Greek word, “to write far.” Pretty good description. Before there was electricity, there was a communication system that fit that description. It was in the form of tall poles that put up different arms and other signals. It could be seen at a distance. It was used during the Battle of Waterloo to let the folks know back in London what was going on with the struggle against Napoleon. I suppose that has its use but for long distances, you probably would need a series of big poles with a guy hanging around each one and waiting for a signal to be seen from one direction so he could then relay it to someone in the other direction. I suppose it was better than nothing and probably faster than relying on a guy on a horse, like Paul Revere…though Paul was pretty fast and he could travel at night, which obviously was a limitation for this early form of “telegraph.”

1844 First Telegraph Receiver

So, along comes electricity. Now, a bunch of inventors had figured out the basic principals involved but it was left to the somewhat successful American painter, Samuel Finley Breese Morse, to understand the practical application of those principals and the first to take pragmatic steps to invent a way to take exploit those principals. While at Yale, Morse had taken a keen interest in electricity but was lured by his love for art. He studied under Benjamin West and Washington Allston, who were considered two of the better painters of the day. He got married in 1818 but, while he was working on his painting of the Marquis de Lafayette, he got news his wife died. He left the painting unfinished and became an artistic recluse in his grief. But an odd thing happened, in his grief, he rediscovered his interest in electricity. He attended some lectures of academics but eventually returned to art.

William Cullen Bryant by Morse

In 1829, he went back to Europe to study art.  Had he not done that, he may never had received the inspiration of the telegraph. You see…in 1832 he was on board a ship returning to America when he came upon some scientists who were discussing the properties of electricity. One man queried whether electricity lost its velocity over a long distance. When another remarked that in Ben Franklin’s experiments, he had noted that a captured electrical current traveled over several miles of wire without any time differential as the reaction at the end of the wire seemed to be coincidental with the intialization of the current. That statement triggered the small spark of inspiration in Sam Morse’s head.

Old Sam Looks Like a Decorated Warrior

That left Morse with a tough choice. If he wanted to immerse himself in electricity, then he had to give up painting but, with no painting, he had no income. He was already rather poor, often skipping meals for extended periods or depending on the help from friends. In 1835, he was granted a teaching position in the Art Department of the State University of New York. That gave him access to the facilities and faculty at the University and afforded him the opportunity to expand his electrical research. With the help of a colleague, he made numerous successful experiments and developed a code of communication, known today as the Morse Code. In 1842, Morse went to Washington to build a telegraph line. In early 1843, he convinced Congress to grant him $30,000 to build a line from Washington to Baltimore. And finally, on this date in 1843, Samuel F.B. Morse demonstrated his telegraph to the world. His friend, Miss Ellsworth, came up with the first words to be transmitted. It was “What Hath God Wrought?” Indeed…what? It was the beginning of the information age that eventually progressed from communications by telegraph to radio to television and now the internet. All because a painter became heartbroken by his wife’s death and because he had run off to Europe as part of his grief.

I suppose, this might be an example of “don’t give up.” Difficult situations today might make you say “why me?” or make you angry. But, it could be that circumstance that proves necessary for your later success and happiness.

Weather Bottom Line:  Everything is going right along as scheduled.  However, it got a bit warmer sooner than I expected. Snow White and I were out and about on Sunday afternoon.  Even though we officially hit 90, I think just about everyone was in the mid to upper 80′s since no one lives at the airport where they decided a few years ago to keep the official records.  Necessarily, that means that the temperatures will be hotter.  It’s going to be very difficult for Louisville to break all time low temperature records.  Anyway, my thinking was that there would be so much humidity that it would be difficult to get to 90 this week and I still think that is the case.  But…whatever.  Its going to be pretty warm and humid.  Having said that, isolated afternoon t’showers will be possible..the exception not the rule. One way you can tell if they are going to be an issue if, at noon time you see any towering cumulus clouds. If you do, then there is a good bet that there will be storms in the afternoon.  If not…if you just see puffy cumulus or ones that are kinda flattened out, that would suggest that there is somewhat of a cap and that storms aren’t likely.  Now, at the end of the week, there is a frontal boundary that will be approaching that may bring a better chance for general rain and t’storm activity. 

This is What the actual satellite photo of the Atlantic and the disturbance looked like on May 24 2010

As mentioned yesterday, there is a little system north of the Bahamas.  I’ve seen it show up on the models for several days.  Generally they only take it to 1004 mb and keeps it meandering offshore of the SE US before it scoots away.  I found several news outlets though that, last Friday, claimed that we could have a tropical storm over the weekend.  The Palm Beach Post said “…there’s a chance the first storm of the season will form this weekend.”  That was such nonsense except that 1% chance I suppose qualifies as a “chance.”  There was nothing to suggest that.  Even the guy from the local NWS office didn’t say that. They just made it up. And they weren’t alone.  It’s headline writers and producers in news rooms that often give meteorologists a bad name because they write things that are not accurate. 

This is the photo the TV station uses in association with a story that says absolutely nothing about a tropical storm, tropical depression or hurricane. You decide using this old photo is a responsible act.

Now, WXJT in Jacksonville has one of several headlines put out by various media outlets today that are just as far off base.   They show a picture of a very mature and completely developed hurricane, which who knows when that was taken, but its not this one and they know it but a casual reader may not.  All they see is the photo and a headline that reads,  “Tropical System Brewing in Atlantic?”  If the TV station bothered to read the first sentence of the special statement put out by the National Hurricane Center (found below) it says “…the non-tropical low pressure system….”  That should answer their question mark. They suggest that there is less than a one in three chance for it to acquire subtropical characteristics in the next few days… nothing about tropical.  Now, last night, I found one model run that wanted to run this guy off the Virginia coast and then deepen it quickly to about 984mb as it ran up  just offshore the Northeast and New England coast.  Seemed a bit odd and now that abherration is no where to be found.  Every model that i looked at today still has a 1004-1008 mb low wandering about for a few days off the South Carolina and Georgia Coast before it moves northeast.  From the satellite picture,even an untrained eye like a news producer can see it looks nothing like a tropical cyclone.  Is it possible for it to acquire those characteristics?  Yes. Probable? NO.  And it would have to become a fully developed major tropical cyclone to affect the oil slick operations in the Gulf, and that seems very unlikely…though I suppose the headline writers might say there’s a chance if I said it was .00025% chance.  They like to scare people so they will buy the news paper, read their webpage or watch their news.  Don’t worry about it.  Having said all of that, I have seen in the past where an early storm of dubious distinction was given a name with the “subtropical” modifier. I have speculated that if there is an excuse for a name, they find it early on just to make people more aware of the season’s start.  I have no proof but, I have sometimes wondered if a couple of storms have actually met the criteria and qualified for a name.  So, I won’t be surprised to see a name, deservedly or not…but either way…..there is no indication at all that it will be anything but a moot point.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH WINDS
TO GALE FORCE.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT… OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
NNNN

Yao Ming Baby Birth Makes China Ask, How Tall? American or Chinese? May 23, 2010

Wonder if Van Gundy Will be the Godfather?

Yao and Ye Li Could Be Parents Standing Tall

If you recall, several months ago, I reported that a certain member of the Houston Rockets was expecting to become a father as his wife was pregnant with their first child.  It was not just another basketball player.  The player in question was none other than Yao Ming whose popularity probably exceeds that of any basketball player in the world due to his giant fan-base found in his native China.  For that same reason, he probably ranks near the top of the list of all professional athletes when it comes to world-wide name recognition.  Now, when I reported on the pregnancy announcement, I had suggested that perhaps his child may be the catalyst for world peace.  While that mayor my not prove to be true, I’m not so sure there won’t be some rough spots before we get to that point.  See, Yao and his wife, Ye Li  had a baby girl on May 21, 2010.  But, here’s the catch: the little girl was born in Houston.  That means that, by birth, she is an American citizen.  But, China forbids dual citizenship and both of her parents are Chinese citizens.  Hmmm…could be a bit of international intrigue before we get to my ideals of global cooperation. For months now, stories have circulated concerning fans in China asking if the child would be a Chinese citizen.  So far, I believe the answer, if there is one, remains in the minds of the parents. 

Tale of the Tape: Speculation Regarding Height of Ye Li and Yao's baby

 At the time of the pregnancy news, the China Daily ran a story regardling speculation of how tall the child would be given that Ye Li is 6’2″ and Yao is 7’6″.  For the record, the baby came in at a fairly pedestrian 7 pounds 6 ounces (though some sources claim 9 ounces).  In the meantime, there have been several birth announcements in the press.  Most, like the USA Today article, are simply reprints of the AP story.   The Houston Chronicle had its own story but it included just two short paragraphs.   The Singapore Straits Times wasn’t much more helpful.   And suprisingly, the China Daily birth announcement was also not filled with much more than anything else except for one line.  In relation to the question whether or not the child would be American or Chinese, it says the Mings consider the birth a “private” matter.  I suppose that explains why there isn’t much more news on the subject other than the child was born.  I suppose it remains for pundits to determine if that small statement is particulary telling or not.

Funeral Obsessed Frances

On This Date in History: Frances Hiller was what we might call eccentric. The 18th century woman was married to a doctor who had made a fortune from a patented medicine that he had invented. Frances bought hundreds of hats and wore costly jewelry, even when gardening. Her odd ways may have dervied from the fact that she had 23 children! She was rather economical in that department as well as the 23 kids includes 7 sets of twins. That is amazing but its also quite sad because not a single child lived beyond infancy. So, she had attended a lot of funerals, which may explain her strange story.

Hiller Financed Frances Eccentricies

While she lived, Frances Hiller planned her own funeral which included a very ornate casket. Dr. Henry Hiller hired a famous wood carver to fashion a pair of exquisite caskets. But, Hank went and died in 1888 before the caskets were finished. So, she kept her husband’s body in a vault until the work was completed. It had hand carved vines, cupids, bats, dragons and angels, which seems like a display of contrast. Perhaps the angel was slaying the dragon. If the angel was doing battle with the large reptile, it would have to watch out for the skull that featured lizards crawling out of the eye socket. When the finally got around to burying Henry, he was taken in his fabulous casket in a procession that marched to the sounds of a military band and was escorted by a procession of 2000 people.

In 1893, she married her chauffer…..a boy toy perhaps? I dunno but part of the deal was the guy had to change his name to Henry Hiller. I suppose thats not a bad trade from being a chauffer to being married to a rich widow. Anyway, she was married but kept her casket handy…even on display in her parlour. She would climb into it and show visitors how she would look when she was dead. She even had a life-sized wax replica of herself made to place in the casket so she could see what she’d look like six feet under. Finally she died in 1900 and I bet the chauffer didn’t sign a pre-nuptual agreement so he made out pretty well.

Such an Eyesore Even Photographers Kept their Distance

So, she finally got her wish and made it to the casket on this date in 1900. It was a duplicate of the one Henry had used. The wood was of the finest quality which means it was quite heavy. It took 10 men to carry it. The funeral car was drawn by 4 black horses with black netting. The funeral car sagged terribly from the weight and almost fell apart. A journalist who was on hand said that the excitement and hoopla was only matched by the local cattle fair. Frances was placed in an enormous masoleum that were quite a site…but in 1935, they were condemned as an eyesore. The cemetery tore it down and buried the couple in their ostentatious coffins. Today, all that remains are an urn and bronze plates that mark the location. This brings to mind the old adage…you can’t take it with you.

We can use some boring weather

Weather Bottom Line:  We have a summer-like week ahead.  A big fat ridge over the eastern US will prevent any major systems coming in.  Look for highs generally in the mid 80′s for the first part of the week followed by upper 80′s thereafter.  Our dewpoints on Sunday afternoon were already  in the upper 60′s and there is no reason to think it will get any drier anytime soon.  So, with that type of moisture content and pretty warm temperatures, we may get a pop up afternoon t’shower or two each afternoon but, for most, it will be a pretty boring week ahead with any rain that falls being the exception rather than the rule.  It’s okay.  After all the rain we’ve had, boring isn’t a bad thing for awhile.  Oh…BTW…I’ve seen for many days now the models trying to put a 1008 or 1004 mb low off the SE coast of the US later in the week.  With hurricane season getting going on June 1, don’t be surprised to see this feature showing up on local and national newscasts.  The general consensus  is that the hurricane season will be more active than average, which fits into the idea that we are in the midst of a cycle of a more active tropical Atlantic which has been observed and noted for a long time before the idea of global warming came to the public conscience.  So, while there may be an attempt to connect the forecast with climate change, it may not hold water.

Cyclone Tomas Batters Fiji, Cyclone Ului Threatens Aussies March 16, 2010

Vis Sat SW Pacific 130Z 16 Mar 2010

Click S Pac 230Z 16 Mar 2010 Image for Most Recent loop

Tropics Heating Up?   For our part of the world, Hurricane Season comes each summer and fall from June 1 to November 30.  But, tropical cyclones show up in many parts of the world and are called different things.  Tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific and North Atlantic are known as Hurricanes.  In the Western North Pacific, they gain the moniker of Typhoon. To become a typhoon or hurricane, a tropical cyclone must reach sustained winds of 64 kts or greater which is 74 mph.   In the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, they are called Cyclones but only need to reach 34 kts which is equivalent to the Tropical Storm designation in the North Atlantic of 40 mph.  If a tropical cyclone forms in the Timor Sea and moves Southeast across Northwest Australia, it is known as  a Willy Willy.   Now, tropical cyclones  have to form away from the equatorial regions…typically north, or south, of 10 degrees latitude.  That is because you need coriolis forces to produce circulation and the coriolis force becomes more negligible the closer you get to the equator.    Because coriolis parameters are at play and a tropical cyclone is an area of low pressure, the lower levels of the storm flow in a counter-clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and in a clockwise direction in the Southern Hemisphere.

Tropical Cyclone Tracks 1985 to 2005

The average number of “named storms” in the North Atlantic is about 11 with 5 or 6 becoming Hurricanes.  Americans tend to think that active tropical weather is defined solely on what goes on in the North Atlantic but the truth is that the North Atlantic is not even close to the most popular breeding ground for tropical cyclones.  This tends to come into play these days when people look at tropical activity to determine the effects of Global Warming.  That would be short sighted.  The Eastern North Pacific averages 15 tropical cyclones,  The North Indian Ocean averages 6 tropical cyclones annually while the South Indian Ocean comes in with 11.  The Southwestern Pacific and Australia area checks in with 15 per year but the all time winner every year is the Western North Pacific.  That region of the world experiences more than 25 tropical cyclones per year with 18 becoming Typhoons.  The season in this hot bed of tropical cyclones is April to December but the frequency of off-season tropical cyclones in this region is much higher than any other part of the world.  Until recently, there had never been a tropical cyclone in the South Atlantic until a hurricane (that’s what they decided to call it) showed up off of Brazil in 2004. The map  at the left shows all tracks of all tropical cyclones from 1985 to 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Ului 12 z 15 Mar

Well, we are coming out of winter in the Northern Hemisphere but they winding up the summer in the South.  While it is speculated that the absence of land masses in the Southern Hemisphere is the reason why there are fewer tropical cyclones down South, it stands to reason that, like the Northern Hemisphere, the tail end of the summer months is probably the peak of cyclone season.  Right now, there is Tropical Cyclone Ului which is  in the Coral Sea and heading toward the Eastern Australian coast according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center report on Ului .  Authorities in New Zealand are also keeping a close eye on Ului.   High pressure to the east has weakend and so Ului  is moving South but is expected to curve it back to the Southwest as high pressure builds back in once a trof moves through. As long as that happens, it’s the Aussie’s problem, not so much the Kiwis but it is uncertain if the storm makes it all the way to Queensland or just brushes the coast and swings back to New Zealand.  By that time, it should be in a weakening stage as it enters colder waters.  Well east of Ului is Tomas.

Cyclone Tomas JTWC Forecast 00Z 16 Mar

Now, Cyclone Tomas approached the Fiji Islands over the past 24 hours and has brought havoc.  Fiji has over 300 islands as part of its archpeligo with about 106 inhabited.  Vanua Levu is taking the brunt of the storm with winds with Tomas reported at 105 kts with 130 kt gusts by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.   Video from Suva shows the rough seas and gusty winds, though though that city is well away from the center of the storm or its projected path.  It serves as testiment to how broad the windfield must be.   A report from the New Zealand Herald say there are reports of deaths and damage associated with Tomas with part of Fiji’s 1 million residents hunkering down in shelters.  Here is a more complete report that claims that both it and Ului are “fiercer than Katrina”  and it’s not too complete because communications are so poor and the storm is moving slowly.   The Fiji Meteorological Service has the latest updates and details.

Click on Precipitable Water 2:00Z 16 Mar 2010 Image for Loop and Notice how the storms rotate clockwise

Now, this report claims winds have increased to 200 km per hour. That would be 108 kts or 125 mph.  That is about the same maximum winds of Katrina, not stronger.  And Katrina’s devastation was caused by a storm surge that was enhanced by the local geography.  Further, Katrina had winds of 175 mph, or 281 km per hour, less than 24 hours prior to landfall that created a storm surge consistent with a top flight storm.  The only reason that the winds decreased at landfall was due to its going through an eyewall replacement cycle.  So, that claim is probably an exaggeration.  Nevertheless, it’s a tough storm and the surge  is apparently an issue.  Let us hope that the hyperbole is not the truth and that Fiji escapes. 

Sunday Morning Looks Lousy...Note Secondary Cold front to Northwest

NAM Wed Eve 700mb Moisture suggests we're on the edge of clouds which may inhibit temperatures

Weather Bottom Line:  I still see that upper low coming down from the north on Wednesday but so far, it appears to be content to move down to our west.  The question will be how much clouds we have in our area.  I still think it will be sufficient to keep us from getting to 60 but, either way, look for a warm up in the coming days.  Low to mid 50′s Tuesday with the sun making an appearance.  Filtered sun on Wednesday with highs in mid to upper 50′s. Low to mid 60′s on Thursday and Friday then mid 60′s, or maybe even higher on Saturday.  Then a cold front brings rain and some t’storms Saturday night and much cooler conditions on Sunday….I think it may be colder than most folks think…I say low to mid 40′s. We’ll see.

Hundreds Dead, Thousands Homeless and Hungry in El Salvador Following Hurricane Ida November 12, 2009

Is Flooding In El Salvador News To You?

Thousands Homeless in El Salvador

While Hurricane Ida fizzled, as expected, prior to making a US landfall near Mobile, AL it’s previous life was much more eventful and devastating.  In El Salvador, well over 100 people are dead and scores more missing after some of the mountainous areas of the Central American nation got 14 inches of rain in just four hours.  (See photo gallery)  Some 10,000 in El Salvador are in need of food.  However, from reading the reports, one can surmise that all of the rain that El Salvador received was not directly related to Hurricane Ida.  Reports claim that it rained for 5 days and US Navy Meteorologists suggest that an area of low pressure was drawn in from the Pacific in the wake of the tropical cyclone as it passed by.  But the bottom line is that rain brought mud and boulders cascading down the side of a volcano that buried towns and villages.  There was fear of such an event in the Philippines when Typhoon Mirinae crossed the region of the active volcano Mount Mayon.  Those fears were not realized but El Salvador did not fair as well.  Nicaragua took the initial impact of the minimal hurricane on November 5, 2009 and reports of damage and flooding as well as contaminated water supplies have prompted relieve efforts from Catholic Relief Services to that nation.  Some are comparing the rain and devastation to Hurricane Mitch in 1998 that killed some 11,000 in Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador and neighboring Central American nations.

The Commodore Was Stylish

On This Date in History:  Commodore Cornelius Vanderbilt was worth $104 million when he died on January 4, 1877 at the age of 83.  That was about $2 million more than the US Treasury had in its possession.  Literally, richer than the government and, therefore, perhaps almost as powerful.  In 2007 inflation adjusted dollars, the figure comes to over $2 billion.  He made 90 percent of his fortune from railroads.  The odd thing is that Vanderbilt hated railroads and wanted nothing to do with them until he was 68 years old.   In his lifetime, railroads represented the new emerging market, so why would he be so adverse to such a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity? 

Early Locomotive on Camden & Amboy RR More Like Iron Pony Rather Than Iron Horse

Well, Vanderbilt had done quite well for himself with a fleet of schooners that he contracted out to the US government to supply forts. That’s where he got the nickname “Commodore.”  As the steamships came about, he took advantage of that new technology and also subverted to law to make gains in that business.  Ultimately, he was vindicated by the US Supreme Court that broke a New York State monopoly granted to Robert Fulton.  Steamboats were fine for him but not steam locomotives.  His aversion dated back to this date in 1833, when he lay near death.  Cornelius Vanderbilt had the unfortunate distinction of being part of the nation’s first railroad accident the previous day.  He was a passenger on the Camden and Amboy Railroad bound for Perth Amboy, New Jersey.  An axle broke and the train jumped the track.  In America’s first fatal train wreck, two people were killed and the Commodore was left with two broken ribs and a punctured lung, which was often a fatal condition in 1833.  Riding in the car ahead of him was former President John Quincy Adams who was not hurt.

NYTimes Saw Vanderbilt as the New Colossus

The Long Island Railroad provided service between Boston and New York with a steamboat transfer.  Guess who owned the steamboats?  In 1844, Vanderbilt was elected as Director of the Long Island Railroad and in 1857, he got the vote as the Director of the New York and Harlem Railroad.  I suppose as director of two railroads, he could see the potential financial windfall and the dollar signs in his eyes overcame any psychosis he had in his head.  Secretly, he began selling his assets in the steamboat business and began buying up shares of the New York and Harlem Railroad in 1862.  He was worth $11 million when he began he started riding the Iron Horse and he never got off.  The stock soared to $50 a share.  He then bought the Hudson River Railroad in 1864 and then the New York Central Railroad in 1867.  While the Civil War raged on, it was business as usual for men in the North like Vanderbilt.  His acquisitions continued with some controversy but, eventually, he owned a railroad network that connected the eastern seaboard to the western frontier in the northern plains.  Wonder what he would have done had he really liked railroads?

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track Eyes Mobile Bay Landfall as it Weakens Rapidly November 10, 2009

Tropical Storm Ida Satellite Loop (click for most recent)

Tropical Storm Ida Water Vapor Loop (click for most recent)

Hurricane Ida has behaved as expected for the most part. You can access the Mobile National Weather Service Radar Here. You can also tell from the satellite loop above, it doesn’t really look like a tropical cyclone anymore but instead a run-of-the-mill area of low pressure.    In fact, if you look at the Tropical Storm Ida Water Vapor Loop to the left, it really looks like it doesn’t have much in the way of tropical characteristics.  As it moved north during the day, it ran into colder water.  By the afternoon, it was over water with a surface temperature of 26 C which is below the critical level to sustain tropical cyclones.  As it moves north, it will move into increasingly colder water.  Also, it encountered strong wind shear.  Late Sunday night, when I saw the Vortex message from the Hurricane Hunters, I noted that it was showing a rise in pressure and an open section of the eyewall and suggested that perhaps it was already beginning its demise even though the winds had increased to 105 mph.  By late Monday afternoon, Hurricane Ida was no longer and Tropical Storm Ida was back with us as winds had dropped to 70 mph, though observations showed a small area of hurricane force winds that the boys that the National Hurricane Center determined was a local anomaly and not indicative of the circulation.  The shear had become so pronounced that early afternoon observations from the Hurricane Hunter indicated that the center at 700 mb was already shifting away from the center at the surface, indicating that the shear was really ripping up the integrity of the structure.

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track (click for most recent)

By late afternoon/evening, Ida was located 40 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 125 miles South of Mobile and was moving north at 17 mph.  Much of the convection was on the north and east side of the storm, again indicative of a storm getting ripped up and perhaps transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone.  The 00Z Tuesday Tropical Storm Spaghetti Model had more than half of the tracks now not looping back but instead are following a track that I had advocated for several days, which would be from Pensacola to Savannah, GA.  It looks like a Mobile Bay landfall,  50 miles west of Pensacola will be likely.  One thing that I did get wrong, unless it really slows down, is that I had thought that the NAM solution of a day ago of a landfall around 00Z Tue was all wrong and I liked somewhere around midday on Tuesday.  It seems more likely that an early morning landfall is in the cards, provided  that it doesn’t slow down too much and I just think with the shear increasing ahead of a trof coming across the Gulf ahead of a cold front will keep it moving along.   I also think that if the front can keep its legs, it will come and pick it up and take the remnant something north of east and I think that a lot of the models are picking up on that same line of thinking.

Atlantic Total Precipitable Water Loop (click image for most recent)

All in all, this will be a storm that will bring a minimal storm surge with some gusty winds.  I noted a buoy about 40 miles south of Orange, Alabama with winds of about 35 kts gusting to near 45 kts and seas were running about 16 ft.  The biggest issue with this will be rain, especially for areas well east of the landfall point.  Even though I would think that Ida will be off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday, I would think that an area from say Tallahassee to Savannah to Daytona and maybe as far south as Cedar Key will have 36 to 48 hours of decent rain that could accumulate and cause some problems.  The 10PM EST advisory has Tropical Storm Ida with maximum winds of 65 mph.  The central pressure is 997 mb.  24 hours ago, it was 979 mb and 105 mph winds.  So, it has weakened substantially.  Ida was located about 100 miles SSW of Mobile and had slowed a bit with a northerly track of 13 mph.  It is expected to turn NNE overnight.  At this speed, landfall would be at about 6 am EST Tuesday morning.  See discussion below the Tropical Storm Ida Spaghetti model 00Z Tue.

Tropical Storm Ida Spaghetti Model (click for most recent)

WTNT41 KNHC 100300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE
CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX THAT POSITIONED
THE CENTER EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WELL SOUTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF IDA HAS SLOWED TO
ABOUT 11 KT.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A CONTINUED
REDUCTION IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND IS THEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 71 KT AND A SMFR SURFACE WIND OF 51 KT.  THIS SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  IDA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.  ONCE INLAND THE
CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 36-48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IDA’S LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 29.3N  88.6W    55 KT
12HR VT     10/1200Z 30.8N  87.9W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     11/0000Z 31.5N  86.5W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     11/1200Z 31.3N  84.8W    25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     12/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Hurricane Ida In Gulf with 100 mph winds; Will Be Weakening at landfall in US November 9, 2009

Hurricane Ida Satellite Loop (rainbow IR click image for most recent)

See update on pending Ida landfall near Mobile Bay. For latest satellite, radar, forecast track, spaghetti model CLICK HERE

Cancun Radar of Hurricane Ida Passing Through Yucatan Channel

Hurricane Ida is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and the Hurricane Ida Forecast Track takes it inland near Pensacola, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast and  Hurricane Warning flags have been hoisted from Pascagoula, MS to Indian Pass, FL which is near Applicachicola.   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect westward to New Orleans and eastward to Aucilla River, FL.  For the past two days, I have been suggesting that the more conventional solution should be considered rather than the forecast track established by many models which called for the storm to loop back out to sea.  In many regards, it made no sense.  The National Hurricane Center went along with the consensus modeling but I figured the models would eventually come around, and they have.  Yesterday, I had observed the satellite imagery and concluded that it was certainly possible for Hurricane Ida to be something stronger than the forecast intensity of 70 kts.  By late Sunday afternoon, Hurricane Ida had sustained winds of 105 mph.  As it came through the Yucatan Channel, Cozumel Radar showed very distinctive banning and a decen, though not perfect, circulation structure.    Even though Ida spent 48 hours over land, it is now stronger than it ever has been.

Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Not Conducive to Supporting Tropical Cyclones

I would think that Hurricane Ida does not have much more time to get stronger.   In the first place, if you look at the sea surface temperature analysis, you will note that the lighter orange shades in the Yucatan Channel correspond with sea surface temperatures something less than 30 degrees C but more than the minimum required of 28.5 C.  As the shading progresses farther north, it goes darker and darker toward brown.  That is representing falling water temperatures and it would appear to me that when you look at the central Gulf of Mexico about even with Tampa, the temperatures at the surface are below 28 C, which means that Ida will begin to die then.  By the time you get to about 150 miles off the US Gulf Coast, water temperatures are in the lower 20′s C.  Remember, we’ve had several strong cold fronts in the past few weeks that have reduced water temperatures in the shallower waters. 

Atlantic Total Precipitable Water Loop (click image for most recent)

The other factor in Hurricane Ida’s demise will be strong southwesterly shear ahead of a trof that is moving across the Continental United States.  That just happens to come into play in about the same spot as where the water temperature falls before critical levels.  So, while that upper wind has been serving to enhance the northern outflow of Ida and helped enhance its intensity, it will be the same factor that will help kill it.  By late Sunday, the hurricane hunter aircraft noted a central pressure of 976 mb, which is fairly impressive. However, a later recon mission revealed the pressure had risen to 980 mb, there was an 8 mile circular eye that was open to the east.  So, the Sunday night observations may be an early indication that Ida has seen its best days and the decline has already begun.   But, then again maybe not because the flight level winds were higher on this pass from the last going from a maximum flight level (700 mb) wind of 94 kts to 108 kts.  It’s kinda interesting that the hurricane hunters reported hail on their latest venture into Ida.  In any event,  in contrast to the most recent observations, the NAM, GFS and NOGAPS models have respective central pressure at landfall of 1004 mb, 1004 mb and 1009 mb.  That is pretty pedestrian and is indicative of just how far and how fast Ida is expected to fall apart.  It may indeed become extra-tropical.  That is really not an issue because that has more to do with the structure of the storm and wherever it makes landfall, residents can expect a storm surge, heavy rain and gusty winds. 

Hurricane Ida Forecast Track (click for upates)

As I outlined the previous two days, it seemed likely that this guy would get caught up in the southwesterly flow ahead of the trof and be kicked to the northeast like any other low pressure area.  While it is falling apart and becoming a run-of-the-mill low, it will still be an area of low pressure and I think will act accordingly.  If it got completely absorbed, then it wouldn’t be a distinct low and therefore no longer an entity to be tracked.  In any event, everyone seems to me on board with a landfall in the US.  The NAM wants to take it into New Orleans on Monday night.  The GFS likes Monday night around Mobile or Pensacola while the NOGAPS likes Mobile/Pensacola but is looking for a Tuesday night landfall.  The NOGAPS solution is probably more accurate as to timing and location but I bet the GFS and NAM idea of a 1004mb low is probably a better call than the NOGAPS 1009 mb suggestion.  The ultimate truth of the landfall time will probably be sometime in between the NOGAPS and GFS/NAM timing.  I’ll vote for Tuesday early afternoon.

Bottom line is this.  Hurricane Ida has been tabbed as a 90 kt hurricane with gusts to 110 kts based on the latest recon data but will be hard pressed to maintain its hurricane status at landfall.  In fact, there it may be likely that it will be considered extra-tropical.  So what.  North Florida, South Georgia, South Alabama and even perhaps South Carolina can expect gusty winds and heavy rain Tuesday into Wednesday as I would think the ultmate path may go from say, Pensacola to Savannah.  A cold front sweeps it all away and that will be the end of that by Thursday.  See the official discussion below the Hurricane Ida Spaghetti Model image that you can click on for the most recent update.

Hurricane Ida Spaghetti Model (click image for most recent)

Hurricane Watch/Warning Map

000
URNT12 KNHC 082332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112009
A. 08/23:04:40Z
B. 22 deg 47 min N
  086 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2948 m
D. 80 kt
E. 355 deg 4 nm
F. 099 deg 103 kt
G. 359 deg 8 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 7 C / 3069 m
J. 17 C / 3054 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN E
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA                OB 29
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 22:09:20Z
HAIL AND CONT LIGHTNING  N QUAD

WTNT41 KNHC 090301
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
900 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE
AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE HURRICANE JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC.  DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND
OF 84 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  ANOTHER AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH IDA AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES PROVIDE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT INITIAL
MOTION OF 345/12…A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  IDA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TRACK MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE AND SHOW A TRACK NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK…BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER.  AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…THE MODELS
TURN IDA EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT…BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS SHARP A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  THE AIR FORCE ALSO FLEW A SURVEILLANCE
MISSION AROUND AND NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT
DATA SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODELS.

IDA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS…AND MOVE INTO A
COOLER AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IT WILL ALSO
LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER…IT IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY THAT IDA WILL RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
THROUGH LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND ALL SHOW IDA AROUND HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE
CYCLONE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.  THIS HAS REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0300Z 23.7N  86.7W    90 KT
12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.8N  87.5W    85 KT
24HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  87.7W    75 KT
36HR VT     10/1200Z 30.5N  87.1W    65 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  85.8W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     13/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Ida could soon to be Hurricane Ida again; Ida Forecast Track slightly more clear November 8, 2009

Ida IR Rainbow Satellite Loop (click image for most recent)

See latest on Cat 2 Hurricane Ida in Gulf with Cancun Radar image, sea surface temperature, satellite image, forecast track CLICK HERE

Ida Forecast Track (click image for most recent)

Tropical Storm Ida is behaving itself though it looks to be in pretty good shape.  As noted yesterday, as the storm came offshore, the convection in the center exploded and the intensity was raised to 60 kts and there was some thought that perhaps it may become a hurricane by nightfall.  But, a little southerly shearing came into play and the late night advisory kept the storm at 60 kts.  Ida appears as if it will more or less thread the needle through the Yucatan channel thus keeping its center of circulation over water between the Island of Youth in Cuba and Cozumel near the top of the Yucatan Peninsula.  As mentioned previously, the satellite image if fairly impressive and there are strong winds aloft to the north of the storm.  The official forecast reflects the potential for some good outflow that may provide for an uptick in the intensity to that of low end Hurricane status.  I won’t be surprised to see it go higher than the current forecast of 70 kts.  That same shear, however, will then serve to mess up the storm and so the forecast calls for it to fall back to tropical storm status.  Confidence is pretty high through Monday. (see discussion below)

Total Precipitable Water Loop (click image for most recent)

After that, a cold front comes down into the Gulf.  Now, yesterday I opined that the then forecast of it turning back southeast seemed a bit improbable to me.  I thought a conventional viewpoint of the storm getting caught up in the strong southwesterly flow ahead of the trof, thus shooting the storm northeast, would be something to consider.  Only two of the models though played out that scenario and the hurricane center went with the consensus of the modeling data.  However, later model runs have taken the storm farther north, then north northeast toward the Florida Panhandle.  In doing so, the storm is expected to be so influenced by the front and colder water over the northern Gulf (we’ve had a lot of strong cold fronts lately) that Ida becomes Extra-Tropical.  The official forecast then turns the storm southeast as the thinking is that it gets absorbed by the front and moves with the front to the southeast.  I know the models say that but several go ahead and take the remnant of Ida into the extreme southeastern US. 

Gulf of Mexico IR Loop

I contend that solution is still something that should be considered given that the low will have forward momentum and also there will be those strong southwesterly winds.  I mean, a conventional low moves up along a front with a strong flow and I’m not so sure that an extra-tropical cyclone is just going to get absorbed into nothing and, if it were, then there would be no center of circulation to track.  Seems to me that if it is still a distinct circulation center, it would  run up the front.  Now, its true, the models do take the storm back south, but I contend that climatology and the fact that the storm is transitioning from a tropical system that is may be possible that the models are confused.  In any event, its an interesting academic discussion.  As it stands, regardless, winds will get pretty gusty in the Florida panhandle.  I suspect that there will be pretty heavy rain along that front too, given the amount of moisture being drawn northward.  With the increase in convection with a disturbance coming from the Bay of Campeche, I would think that anywhere from New Orleans to Tallahassee will get a pretty good dose of rain.

Ida Spaghetti Model (click)

WTNT41 KNHC 080246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA
SINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BEING IMPACTED BY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY…WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE OF 61
KT.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IDA IN A FEW HOURS TO PROVIDE UPDATED INFORMATION.

IDA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340
DEGREES AT 10 KT AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THEREAFTER…ALL THE MODELS BRING IDA TO THE
COAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BUT
QUICKLY TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ABSORBING COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF.

ALTHOUGH SOME SHEAR IS AFFECTING IDA…IT IS NOT PROHIBITIVELY
STRONG.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT…AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IDA A 24-36
HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING…BUT THE
NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  IDA SHOULD BEGIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND 48 HOURS AND BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…BUT THESE WINDS ARE NOT
DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE CIRCULATION OF IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 20.1N  84.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  85.3W    70 KT
24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N  86.5W    70 KT
36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.4N  87.6W    65 KT
48HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N  87.9W    60 KT
72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN