Home Sweet Home? Stay Off The Phone and Stand By Your Man! September 25, 2008

No Place Like Home?

Here is a whole mess of photos of people returning to Galveston Texas following about 10 days of exile after Hurricane Ike. (CLICK HERE) For a large number of Hurricane Ike Damage Photos and video from Galveston, Bolivar Peninsula, Houston and Louisville, CLICK HERE

Not Feeling Well After Long Sculling Expedition

Snow White and I did a very long row Wednesday evening. My hands ache, ankles, wrists and backside hurt. While the weather was great, suddenly everyone else found out the river was it was great too after two days of secrecy. Sailboats were everywhere and there were lots of pleasure boats and runabouts. Then there were two barges. Pretty rough out there but we persevered for several miles. One thing about sculling on the river is that once you’re up river, you can’t just stop because your hands hurt or you are tired. You have no choice but to keep going until you get back.

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

Thursday will be another good day though clouds will increase. The area of low

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

pressure that I’ve been talking about off the SE Coast got a bit deeper on Wednesday and is trying to take on tropical characteristics. This has gotten the attention of the National Hurricane Center as winds offshore have been up into Tropical Storm force with gusts along the coast of some 35-45 mph. From the models, it appears that the 850 temps will remain rather chilly so it will probably be something of a cold core low with some other

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

tropical features. I wouldn’t be surprised if they label it a sub-tropical storm and issue advisories accordingly. It is now called Invest 94.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

This development really doesn’t affect our forecast much. This guy in whatever form it is will come inland and stay to our Southeast and East. We will get an increase in clouds on Friday with perhaps a light largely insignificant shower or two. It looks to us as if the clouds will stick around for much of Saturday. So, we probably won’t get out of the 70′s for Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be improved with warmer conditions but not as hot as we’ve seen. Then there is some indication that a good cold front comes down for the early to middle part of next week, though we are mulling some of the data which tries to make it pretty cool but we have to consider that we are in a transition in seasons and the models sometimes act goofy. So, we’ll see how it shakes out. Invest 93 is very much up in the air as to whether it develops or not.

Stay Off The Phone...You can Live Without It

Foolishness

Text Message Fiasco: One thing that I didn’t mention but have before is my disdain for the jetskis. Either the guys riding them don’t pay attention, don’t care or deliberately make a nuisance of themselves. Well, another thing that I don’t care for is cell phones. I told Snow White that I had gone well over 40 years without a cell phone and I didn’t need one but if she could find one for $10 a month I’d get one. She found one for $9.95. So now I have a cell phone and i don’t like it when people call because it uses up my minutes. And most of the time it’s to tell me something that could have waited. Most of the time they are driving. I see more people tootling around in their cars talking on the phone and paying attention to the road as much as jetskiers pay attention to the river. Now, we have the new craze..text messaging. This is even more annoying. I’ve seen people having little secret conversations at their work with other people in the building. They sit there and giggle like school kids in the back of the classroom. When you text message, your concentration is taken away from whatever it is you supposed to be doing…like paying attention. Just the other day, a teenager was killed when he was struck by a car. Witnesses say the kid walked right in front of a vehicle….never looking up to see where he was going…because he was concentrating on his text message.

Here’s the Story of the kid killed while text messaging in Florida.

Caused By Text Messaging Engineer?

I’m not sure why a teenager needs a cell phone. It seems like it creates more problems than it solves. But, I have to admit I can see where a kid would like to text message. But I fail to see how an adult would like to text message. I don’t get the face book stuff for adults either…especially those over 25. But, in another recent tragedy, not only was an apparent text messenger killed but more than two dozen also lost their lives. The investigation is continuing but the apparent operating hypothesis of why a Los Angeles area commuter train blew through red lights and then head on into a freight train was because the engineer was text

messaging with a couple of teenagers.

Here is the story of the NTSB investigation into the text messaging activity of an on-duty engineer.

Caused By Cell Phone Using Truck Driver?

If all of that is not enough, here is the story of a truck driver who was on his cell phone earlier this week in Florida. He was looking at his phone then looked up to see a school bus. He hit it without stopping. Bus and truck caught fire, killing a 13 year old girl.

While I’m in a grumpy mood….how about this unbelievable story…

There’s this national televangelist in Georgia. Her husband’s name is Bishop

Marry Tom on a Game Show?

Thomas Weeks III. He recently got divorced. His wife filed for divorce because the preacher was accused of choking his then wife, Juanita Bynum. He was also accused of pushing her and stomping on her in a parking lot and of making terroristic threats. He pleaded guilty to the aggravated assault charge and completed his sentence of community service. Okay…sad story….unusual in that you wouldn’t expect that from a pastor but then again, we’ve heard a lot of stuff about ministers on TV over the years. Here is the kicker….Now ladies…you too can be the bride of Bishop Weeks! I mean, after the above advertisement, why not? Perhaps you can get your boxing license at the same time! All you have to do is appear on the new reality show called “Who Will be the Next Mrs Weeks?!” This search by Weeks will be for wife number 3. Perhaps contestants should consult with wives number 1 and two before going on the air. I mean, from what we know, if this show is truly reality then perhaps it should have a rating like they do in movies.

Joe, Remember Herbie?

Senator Joe Biden Needs to Read This Date in History! You probably heard this but Senator Biden explained to Katie Couric (See Video Clip) how that after the stock market crash in 1929, Franklin Roosevelt went on TV and leveled with the American people. Uh…Senator Biden…Television was not introduced to the public until 1939 and really didn’t find its way into homes until well after the second world war. Oh..and one other thing. Franklin Roosevelt was not president until 1933. Herbert Hoover was president in 1929. What Biden didn’t say was that FDR whacked on Hoover even after he had won the election. Ask yourself this. If Gov. Palin or Sen. McCain had said this, would the press pretty much ignore it or call it a gaffe? Or would they suggest that Palin didn’t know anything or McCain was too old? Be honest.

Today’s This Date in History: If you don’t know the story of Benedict Arnold, he was a very good General for the colonists. In fact, he was one of General Washington’s favorites. He got involved in an act of treason involving an attempt to turn over West Point to the British. You can read all about Benedict Arnold by reading THIS BIOGRAPHY. What you won’t read about are the details regarding his wife.

Showed General Washington the Goods

Arnold married a then 18 year old Peggy Shippen in 1779. Her family is suspected of being British sympathizers. She had been a big part of the social scene in Philadelphia and had a boyfriend named John Andre who was also a British officer. Just so happens that the go-between for Arnold and the British was none other than Andre, who was captured with the whole plot stuffed in his sock. Peggy also corresponded with her old flame, assisting in the negotiations. Arnold escaped but Andre was hanged 8 days later. When the plot was revealed to General Washington, he just happened to be expecting to visit the Arnolds. He found the general gone and Peggy put on a show. She went off like a raving lunatic using wild gestures. One historian also reports that during her performance, her clothes separated in such a way as to “reveal charms that should have been hidden.” Naturally, Washington fell for the scam and declared the woman innocent. Alexander Hamilton knew Shippen and supported Washington’s assessment saying that Shippen had sweetness and beauty with “all the loveliness of innocence.”

In the end, the Arnolds lived in England on a pension but Benedict was largely shunned since most Brits weren’t too keen on anyone who was a traitor, even if their side was the beneficiary. Somehow I suspect that his wife found a way to return to the social scene.

Hurricane Ike-This Week’s Top Story September 8, 2008

Hurricane Ike non-enhanced IR Satellite Image 0908 0145Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite image 0908 0115 Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

You can bet that Hurricane Ike will be at the top of the news this week, ,unless the national news picks up on Senator Obama’s reference to his “muslim faith” (oops!…but be careful….be fair…these videos cut off awfully fast so you don’t see the rest of the clip) on ABC’s This Week, in which case it may fall to second on the list…but not at the end of the week. Not even the Presidential election will knock Ike off the top. In any event, Hurricane Ike will emerge off of the Communist island of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of shape. Ike made landfall on Northeastern Cuba at 9:45 pm EDT. The satellite images shown are from about the time of landfall. About half of the models want to take it to Cat 3 or above while the other half weaken it to between Cat 1 and Cat 2. To have a big storm get ripped up and disrupted by land and then regain its former ferocity

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0907 11pm

would be rather unusual, but not impossible. First there is the question of how long it stays over Cuba or if it wobbles back over water. Then the timing would have to be perfect and the environment in which it moves into would have to be perfect and there would have to be sufficient time for redevelopment. I think that the only certainty of these three would be the time as it should enjoy several days roaming the Gulf of Mexico. But…where does it go? That’s where there remains a great divergence. Oh, not so much in the near term. There is a strong consensus of it getting to central Gulf. But after that the big question arises.

The 18Z GFS continues to insist on a Galveston/Houston landfall. The ECMWF 12Z liked Brownsville. The NOGAPS 18Z is a bit different than the 12Z version in that it takes it to New Orleans but instead of running it due east along the Gulf Coast, it takes it inland. I’ve seen

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0908 00Z

another model that makes it look like its going to Houston and suddenly turns it to the northeast toward SW Louisiana, with a landfall similar to Audrey which I believe was in 1957. All of this hinges on the ridge steering the storm. All week long we have a series of trofs running across the lower 48. We had thought that there would be a strong one on Tuesday. That didn’t materialize too much….so it was Friday. Now, that looks like it too gets hung up, which is why the general forecast is toward the west northwest with the ridge not breaking down. There are some indications that perhaps the Tuesday trof would break down the ridge enough to turn the storm toward New Orleans, thus, the NOGAPS solution. There are those who suggest a break down by the Friday trof, thus the upper Texas coast scenario. Then there

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0908 00Z

are those that do not break the ridge at all but instead run it more westerly toward

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0907 11pm

South Texas. The NHC has chosen the consensus but admits that the intensity and track after a few days is very difficult at this juncture. What else is new. But, I will tell you….if they have this one nailed like they did with Gustav so many days before, then you are talking about a major hurricane potentially hitting the nations 4th largest city with a metro population of over 5.5 million people as well as an area that represents a large part of the nations petrochemical and oil refining capacity…not to mention all of those off shore installations. Stay tuned.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA. SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS…WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING….HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Government Continues Attack on Civil Liberty July 31, 2008

The remnant of Dolly will be moving across the region on Wednesday night. A few strong storms are possible but not necessarily probable. The updated SPC OUTLOOK has a slight risk just to our west. There will probably be a fair amount of lightning and some of the storms coming out of Missouri have had a history of hail and they were rambunctious enough for the SPC to issue a Tornado Watch well to our west. However, it’s not enough for me to come in to work as we suspect the greatest problem with this may be the amount of rain we get. You can just feel the heavy moisture content. This morning it reminded me of my grandparents house on Mobile Bay. Sorta had the same smell…but maybe that was the barn. Nevertheless, it was enough for me to put the goats, the horses and the donkey in the barn for the night. I can’t afford to get those guys mad at me and I don’t think they take too well to lightning and I’m sure they wouldn’t appreciate getting dumped on with rain. I hope the rain helps my baby tree named Horton. I’m sure kelsaroo the hydrangia wil be happy too.

LA Considers Banning Fast Food Establishments in Lower Income Neighborhood. While it’s often unpopular, I have from time to time opined about how we are relinquishing our freedoms under the guise of good intentions. I suppose it’s the Libertarian in me that flares up from time to time. No, I’m not talking about Federal efforts to fight terrorism and work toward better security for the nation. I”m talking about little things…and those little things are now becoming big things and may even get bigger and more intrusive. Already we’ve had governments taking people’s homes so that they can increase the tax revenues. If the government thinks that your home would make a good place for a shopping mall, they can take it. All of this starts with our willingness to allow restrictive laws on relatively minor issues and nos the government is grabbing for more. So far, we have let them and soon we may not be able to stop them.

Many states have made it mandatory to wear a helmet when riding a motorcycle. The excuse from most people is that they don’t want to pay for, or have their insurance premiums go up, when some gets in a wreck when they aren’t wearing a helmet. I suspect though that people who don’t wear helmets probably result in lower hospital costs because they are more likely to die and not be in the hospital at all. Same thing for seatbelts.

I’ve always worn a seatbelt and always will. I think it’s stupid not to wear a helmet on a motorcycle or go seatbeltless in a car. If you don’t wear a seatbelt, the odds increase that you die and stay off the healthcare roles altogether. But, it’s a small infringement on our freedoms under the shroud of public good. Same thing with smoking.

All of the bans go up all over the place. I don’t smoke and never have. But, if an owner of a bar wants to allow adults to use a legal product in his establishment, then he should not be forced to prevent his patrons from using the product. If it is so dangerous and so unhealthful, then the government should ban them altogether. But…they don’t. Why? Because so many states rely on taxes from the tobacco industry. It’s such hypocrisy. On the one hand, they sue the tobacco companies but on the other, they welcome the tax revenue. They prevent law abiding bar owners from allowing people to use a legal product and also require them to enforce the law. Yet, they still need desperately the taxes collected. If the public is so in favor of a smoke-free environment, then they could let the free market decide. My guess is that the smoke free bars would go out of business and the smoking bars would flourish. Just imagine if the tobacco companies decided the cost of doing business was too high in the US and they stopped selling their products in the United States. Then the states would be suing to force them to sell those products because every state would have a huge budget shortfall…and a substantially large angry portion of the electorate. Oh..by the way, statistics show that smokers have more health related issues…but they also show that they die younger…again…off the healthcare rolls altogether.

I think that all of these relatively minor surrenderings of our liberty will lead the government to reach even farther. There have been some localities that have tried to make it illegal for someone to smoke in the privacy of his own home! Remember a couple of years ago when New London, CT used eminent domain to toss people from their perfectly good and safe homes to make way for a commercial establishment? The Connecticut Supreme Court said it was for the public good because it would stimulate the local economy. It seems like a clear violation of the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution. These guys didn’t search, they just seized law abiding private homeowners property altogether. And once New London was able to ge away with it, other cities soon followed. This story got the attention of 60 Minutes , but the American people remain silent.

Now, Los Angeles will vote soon on a measure that would ban any further construction of fast food establishments in a neighborhood that is largely less affluent. The rich neighborhoods can continue to welcome new business with open arms whereas the poor are deemed unworthy of making choices on their own. What is next?

You know, if you really want to get down to it, the Global Warming issue has its base in population. If there were still about 2 billion people on the planet instead of the over 6 billion today, then the pollution and carbon emissions would be greatly reduced. If we keep on this path, then is it not totally unreasonable for one to think that some day the government would limit the number of babies a family could have? Sound far fetched? China does it today and here is a student from the University of Pittsburgh that thinks China’s one child per family rule is “sensible.”

Just some things to think about. For the record, I think the greatest danger to our losing our liberty is through the prism of good intentions and I think we are closer than many people care to think.

Here is the LA Times Story

T’Storm Watch; Kentuckian Tony Snow Will Be Missed July 12, 2008

HERE IS AN UPDATE FROM THE SPC REGARDING WW 689 This looks like a rain event with only isolated potential for severe storms. Rainfall has been pretty heavy though in some spots.

Edit for update: The NWS has dropped all counties from the watch as of 9:45pm EDT except for Jackson, Jennings and Lawrence.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the western third of the viewing area until midnight EDT.  Storms will have plenty of potential energy to work with as they move into our area so I suspect we will be seeing some of them holding together even after the sun sets.  I”ve been talking about this all week and I still think we may see a repeat of Tuesday when the storms were strong in the western part  of the viewing area and then as they move across the rest of the viewing area, begin collapsing and producing strong winds as they do so.  The biggest risk with these storms will be high winds regardless of the time and place. Watch out for the lighting too.  Here’s the discussion that goes along with the watch.  If things get hopping, I probably won’t have time to update this so be sure to go to the weather section and check out the alerts as well as the National Interactive radar which will allow you to go anywhere in the country to street level.  Also we have out local live radar.   Here is the discussion with Watch 689.

   DISCUSSION…A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES
   OVER MUCH OF OH VALLEY.  WITH CONTINUED HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY DEVELOPING INTO CLUSTERS AND
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  WITH 25-30KT OF SHEAR…WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   PRIMARY THREAT…PARTICULARLY WHERE COLD POOLS DEVELOP AND ENHANCE
   DOWNDRAFTS.
  
   AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27025.

Tony Snow  Mr. Snow was from Kentucky and raised in Cincinnati.  I first heard of him as a radio talk show host.  I found him quite refreshing in that he made his point of view quite well and was strong about it.  He was no fence rider.  Yet, he was pleasant in his manner and never mean or condescending in his approach.  He didn’t demonize those he disagreed with and didn’t disrespect others for their opinions, no matter how far out in left field they were.  While you may not have agreed with his positions, I would hope that everyone recognizes what a loss he is for our political discourse because we’ve lost one of the good guys who was a beacon for how it could be and, in my view, should be done.  There is no need to yell and scream and call others names in the name of entertainment.  No need for bombastic commentary or vilification of the opposition.  That goes for all political persuasions.  I did not know Mr. Snow, but I am sure he is missed by his family and probably far more friends than most people could hope to have.  But I think that we as a nation may miss him and his congenial manner far more than most of us realize.  Here is a biography and obits from the NYTimes, Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times.

Tony Snow Bio

NYTimes Snow Obit

Washington Post Snow Obit

Chicago Sun Times Snow Obit

Althea Gibson: American Champion;Air Pollution: Global Problem July 6, 2008

On This Date in 1957: American Althea Gibson won the women’s championship at London’s All English Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. It is known as the Wimbledon Championship. She was the first American of African heritage to do so. In the 1940′s she had won the national black women’s championship twice. Tennis was largely segregated but National champion Alice Marble lobbied on Gibson’s behalf and in 1950 she was invited to play at the US Open. In 1956 she won the French singles and doubles title. After winning Wimbledon, she went on to win the US Open in September of 1957. In 1958, she won Wimbledon and the US Open again. She was the AP Female Athlete of the Year in 1957 and 1958. Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in baseball in 1947 and has his place in the annals of the Civil Rights movement. However, the achievements of Althea Gibson should not be overlooked. She was a true American Champion on many levels.

On This Date in 1955, the US began investigating cleaner air. The first air pollution control efforts began in 1306 when England’s Edward I banned the use of sea-coal in craftsman’s furnaces because of the noxious smoke emissions. In the early 20th century, the automobile was seen as an environmental savior because it eliminated the need for animal power. Animals produce wastes that piled up in cities and created a health hazard. But, as I’ve talked about often on these here pages, there were unintended consequences. Air pollution was largely seen as a nuisance not a health problem until 1952 when London suffered some 4000 fatalities when it was shrouded in what was called the “killer fog.” Analysis revealed it was caused by the reaction of nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbons with ultraviolet radiation. The result was the formation of low level ozone…or 3 oxygens clinging together. On July 6, 1955 the US the first Air Pollution Control Act in an effort to study the effects of auto emissions. Obviously, it wasn’t enough because they amended that act then others followed in 1963, 1970 and 1990. I think it’s safe to say that more can be expected. The American Meteorological Society tracks the evolution of air pollution legislation:

AMS Air Pollution Legislation synopsis

The EPA tracks the evolution of modern air pollution and regulation. It’s interesting to me that it says that the idea of air pollution control evolved from the need for water pollution control. That water pollution problems as a health hazard has been known since the early Middle Ages, yet, we continue to poison ourselves through our rivers, lakes, streams and oceans. We get all worked up over a potential problem that would alter civilization yet ignore one that is actually killing life on earth as we speak.

Here is the

EPA Origins of Modern Air Pollution Regulations

The Dead Zone & Midwest Flooding; Woody Does Battle In Mexico, again. June 21, 2008

I TOLD YOU SO!!!! (snow white says this is too long)

This is done just after midnight and there really isn’t much change regarding the SPC forecast for Saturday.  The idea is that a short wave runs along a boundary to the north and storms will erupt along the track but they have the severe risk area this far south due to the potential for guys forming south of the short or the short moving along farther south than the models indicate.  I’ll update this during the day on Saturday. 

The Dead Zone  If you want to look back at a previous post of mine on this subject, look no further than here:  ”I Told You So” from June 16, 2007  and “A Real Problem”  from May 14, 2007

What I’m talking about is water pollution.  I’ve talked often about how, in my view, we need to be concentrating our efforts on cleaning up a known death trap…that is the pollution of our waters.  Unlike Global Warming, we know for a fact that we are polluting our waters.  I know it every time we go to scull on Harrod’s Creek.  The other day when we put one of the boats on the water, the always delicate Snow White screeched “It’s feces!!”  And you know what? She was right.  My father-in-law told me it was a sewer and he hasn’t been there for years.  He’s known it for years.  Reports have come in for years about all of the municipalities that pollute directly into the Ohio River all up and down the waterway.  No one does a thing.  But we do give Academy Awards for movies that gets people all worked up over something else that may or may not be happening and may or may not be something of which we can do something about.  But water pollution is something we can do something about and we should do something about.  Water is a basic building block of all life.  Without it, we and everything else dies.  Poison it and we poison ourselves. 

As part of the effort to stave off Global Warming and also reduce energy dependence on foreign oil, Congress mandated ethanol.  Corn prices soared and corn production increased.  More fertilizer has been used.  That fertilizer is known to end up in the rivers through run-off.  The fertilizer, I believe it’s  the nitrogen, helps to decrease the oxygen content and makes for a dead zone.  When Snow White and I went to the Chesapeake Bay last summer, crabbing interests were in a decline because the number of crabs had been depleted due to a dead zone in the bay.  It has also been a well known fact that there is a dead zone near the mouth of the Mississippi River.  The photo above below Colonel Klink is a NASA photo where the red and yellow colors show depleted oxygen levels.  Marine life cannot live in these zones.  Here is a link to the NASA page that explains further.

NASA-Dead Zone

Now comes a report that the rains and Midwest flooding will only increase the dead zone.  More fertilizer for more corn crops so we can inefficiently produced ethanol to raise corn prices and not affect gasoline prices in the least.  More fertilizer then has more rain which puts more runoff into the Mississippi River that then goes into the Gulf of Mexico and then there is more uninhabitable marine areas.  Prior to this time it was 5,800 square miles of dead Gulf of Mexico.  How much more do you want?  Maybe I should make a movie and get people’s attention.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…Global Warming is worth studying but water pollution deserves action today…now.  We’re 68% water…our bodies…where do you think that water comes from?  Our planet. Poison the earth’s water and we poison ourselves.  We are in fact poisoning our planet…no question its all around us.  Yet, we do nothing.  Here’s a story that came out today.

Dead Zone In Gulf Larger than Predicted 10,000 Square Miles?

On This Date In History:  Woodrow Wilson went into office with the idea that America wanted change from the Republican days of Teddy Roosevelt and William Howard Taft.  Never mind that he never got 50% of the vote.  He wanted to get America back to where he thought the founders intended and that was a non-interventionist foreign policy.  Yet, he invaded Mexico at least twice and took us into World War I.  I won’t debate the merits of World War I and will only mention that the first invasion of Mexico happened in Vera Cruz in 1914 when a handful of sailors were detained briefly by Mexican authorities.  The President sent a bunch of battleships and Marines to the area.  The Mexicans released the sailors and apologized. Not good enough.  Wilson demanded that the Mexicans also raise the American flag to a 21 gun salute.  Wilson wanted to embarrass a President of Mexico that he didn’t like.  The Mexican president refused to fire off 21 cannons while raising the American flag so we invaded briefly.  So much for change.  TR must have chuckled and applauded Wilson’s gunboat diplomacy.

On this date in 1916, General John J. Pershing’s troops were attack by the Mexican army.  Why? Well, maybe it was because he took his 10,000 troops into Mexican territory.  They were after Pancho Villa who had executed several Americans in Mexico and then briefly crossed the US border and burned down a town in New Mexico.  So, Wilson the non-interventionist sent Pershing into a foreign country too find a bandit who had killed some Americans.  The end result was some American soldiers were killed, more Mexican soldiers were killed and after 11 months, Pershing returned to the United States empty handed.  Villa lived several more years before being assassinated…by what most historians suspect was the Mexican government. 

Woodrow Wilson promised change, to be less belligerent with other nations of the world and later to track down a bandit who had killed Americans abroad and on US soil.  Oh…and one of Wilson’s legacies was the Treaty of Versailles which was so flawed that it directly led to the calamity known as World War II.  Change can be dangerous.  History if full of unintended consequences.

 

The Oil Flows, The Caribou Are Fine and Big Muddy Keeps Rising June 20, 2008

These guys don’t worry about the weather and neither should you.  In fact, these guys don’t worry about the Alaskan Pipeline either, nor any oil drilling going on.  They seem quite content.  Snow White and I were content rowing up the river.  I had no intention of rowing all the way to 12-Mile-Island but before i knew it, we were there.   It was sunny and warm with light wind and humidity was low.  We can expect more of the same for the next several days.  On Thursday afternoon, a few thunderstorms popped up in the afternoon and activity like this will probably continue through the weekend.  They should be generally few and far between but if you find yourself under one, it could have a little bite with a heavy downpour and lightning with a risk for hail and gusty winds.  The long wave pattern will generally remain the same with little upper disturbances wandering down.  It’s really really tough to pick them out much ahead of time beyond just looking to see if they are there.  The models will put one in and the next model run magically makes them disappear.  But, I think it’s safe to say there will be some moving through the flow periodically.  That will trigger scattered to isolated t’storms, mainly in the afternoon. That’s why Snow White and I are rowing in the morning….though not as early as she would like.  I like to snooze.  The pattern looks to persist into the middle of next week as the sharp change reported yesterday may get pushed back a few days.

St. Louis flood photos-Here is a photo gallery out of the St. Louis Dispatch

St. Louis Dispatch Flood Photo Gallery

On This date in History they let the oil flow!  In 1968, a big oil field was discovered off the North Coast of Alaska at Prudhoe Bay.  There were a couple of problems.  First off, the area had to be opened up to drilling and the frozen conditions of the sea for most of the year made it impossible to reliably transport the oil from the region by ship.  The US had been the largest producer of oil in the world until 1970.  As Mid-East Oil production surged, old fields in the US decreased and so in 1972, the US Interior Department opened up the area for  exploration.  In 1973, there was an oil crisis caused by the embargo of exported oil to the US by many Arab nations.  Today’s problems are caused by prices; back then it was actual shortages of the raw material causing a spike in prices.  Anyway, the US hurried construction of an 800 mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Barrow, Alaska where it could be loaded on to ships.

In 1974, the major oil companies partnered up to build the pipeline.  Their biggest fight was with environmentalists.  Some complaints were that the caribou in the region would suffer and the permafrost would be damaged by a buried pipeline with warm oil.  So, the company elevated about half of the pipeline so that the caribou could pass and the permafrost would be unaffected.  They said it would pollute the waters of Prince William Sound that teemed with salmon.  The pipeline began flowing on this date in 1977 and peaked in the amount of oil provided around 800,000 barrels a day in 1988. 

In general, the environmental fears have been largely relegated to the ash-heep of history.  Well, I suppose the fear is still there but reality has been much less doom and gloom.   The Caribou have actually increased in numbers and that is trumpeted often by proponents of drilling.  But, they usually leave out the fact that much of the increase happened in the first years of operation because many predators like Grizzly Bears got scared away by construction.   Nevertheless, the Caribou are doing just fine and, from the pictures above, they not only don’t seem to mind the pipeline, they seem to enjoy the scenery around actually oil drilling operations. 

There have been two spills.  One was when a someone who was presumably an environmentalist who blew a hole in the pipeline.  Some 500,000 gallons of oil spilled on the ground near Fairbanks.  But, before you start thinking that the oil man has been a better friend to the Caribou and their friends than the environmentalists who think blowing up pipelines is a good thing…the Exxon Valdez ran aground on March 24, 1989 into Prince William Sound.  It was a huge disaster.  It was caused by human error but that is part  of the risk of oil recovery, production and transportation.   So opponents of drilling do have a leg to stand on.

Nevertheless,  this story illustrates how many of the concerns by opponents of production of America’s energy needs are often nothing more than scare tactics.  And that’s too bad because it obscures the more legitimate concerns.  But, we are in a bit of a quandary.  We need oil.  It is the most utilitarian and efficient source of energy we have.  In fact, the automobile was seen as an environmental lifesaver when it came about at the beginning of the 20th Century because it eliminated the disease prone and cumbersome wastes from animals in the cities.  By the 1960′s, the unintended consequences came about. 

There are all sorts of reasons why we need to find alternative sources of energy.  It may or may not be possible.  There are people trying.  But in the meantime, we need energy to live.  I heard a presidential candidate say that drilling for oil offshore or in Anwar wouldn’t reduce gas prices today so he’s against it.  What he didn’t say that development of alternative sources of energy won’t reduce today’s gas prices either. In fact, the Congressional mandate of ethanol from Corn has created all sorts of problems…more unintended consequences.  The Alaska Pipeline has a pretty good record.  So has the Gulf of Mexico drilling operations.  Pretty good isnt’ good enough and we should and can do better.  But, in doing so, we need new oil and gas sources until alternatives can be developed.  Had Anwar been opened up 8 years ago, there would be more oil on the market today and perhaps lower prices.  The Prudhoe Bay field was discovered in 1968, developed beginning in ’72 and on line with production in ’77.  It can be done.  It must be done.  There is no alternative not today, nor tomorrow…we have to wait several tomorrows and the only answer for now is oil, for better or worse.

Here is a link to a site that is hard to figure out.  Sometimes when I read it I think that it is operated from the far radical left…at other times it looks like something from the political right.  So, it may be a good balance.  I think some of you may find it a good read as well….interesting at least…and pretty controversial I’m sure.

OIL EMPIRE WEBSITE

Iowa Flooding Photos; Global Warming Q & A June 18, 2008

The weather around here is great, which means it’s lame.  Northwesterly flow with us within the longwave trof means the nice weather conditions continue until a little ripple in the flow, a shortwave or upper low, comes down and it would trigger some isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon t’storms, especially wherever it passes in the afternoon.  The one for around here is weakening and the SPC is losing interest. We’ve still got chances in the forecast which is correct, it’s just there’s not a huge chance for  anything worthwhile.  The timing of these little guys is difficult until they actually form.  For now, it would appear one comes through Saturday and another Sunday night or Monday morning. Otherwise, the weather is great. It will remain nice through the week and relatively rain free for most people.  Heat and humidity increase as the weekend goes on.  We’re a little more uncomfy by Monday, but we may back off a bit with a weak front Monday night.  Snow White and I went sculling Tuesday evening and in spite of the lower humidity and cooler temperatures, I’m still beat.  Age I guess. I couldn’t find anything interesting on this date in history so I’ve got some housecleaning that I hope you find worthwhile. The flooding pictures are amazing and the other discussion may be interesting to you.

IOWA FLOODING PHOTOS Here are some photo galleries from a couple of local papers regarding the flooding in Iowa.  Many rivers have gone higher than the all time records, some of which were set in 1993.  Keep in mind that we have been developing things at a rapid rate over the past several decades which means quicker run-off in many locations.  New housing developments, shopping centers, etc.  There are also dams and reservoirs and such that may not have been around earlier in the century.  So, it’s possible that the rains of days gone by may have been heavier but the flooding today is greater.  I’m not saying that this development is the cause, but  I am suggesting that it is part of the problem.  But, it really doesn’t matter if your house or farm has been flooded.  These pictures are difficult to imagine if you put yourself in their shoes.

Des Moines Register

Gazette-Cedar Rapids

MORE GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE….A QUESTION FROM A READER AND A HALFWAY ANSWER

Here was a question posed yesterday from Johnny b. It’s an interesting question that is probably above my paygrade. See, his question is one of those little things that troubles researchers and opens a whole can of worms for the Global Warming Enthusiasts. First, the question:

“Interesting that the lower troposphere is radically cooler, while surface temperatures seem to be increasing, huh? Seems like common sense and the knowledge that hot air rises would dictate that convection would be increased and the lower and mid tropospheres would increase in temperature as well. Got any explanation for that one other than “One data set must be wrong.” Since I am a lay nerd, I do not have the ability to invalidate any source so I must assume that they are both correct, but I do not understand how. Is there anything on Earth that could suppress convection around the entire world?”

Now, an answer.  On the one hand, people might say that all of the recent flooding is occurring because there is enhanced convection due to global warming.  A retort might be that there have been big floods in the past before anyone says global warming took place.  And what about Noah’s flood?  Maybe that was global warming and increased convection. 

As to the final question, I’m not sure that convection is being suppressed because I don’t think we have enough knowledge to make such a conclusion at this point.  When I started fooling around with Meteorology nearly 30 years ago, I was taught by my professor that prevailing wisdom was that El Nino happened every 7 years.  By the end of the 80′s, it had happened 3 times.  So much for that “fact” that was presented.  Truth is, research of El Nino hadn’t happened all that long before.  It hadn’t been too many years before that science even accepted that El Nino really happened.  But the Peruvians knew about it for 500 years and they coined the term El Nino.  They didn’t know what it was except that every so often, they couldn’t catch too many fish.  Same thing applies with hurricanes.  We’ve known about them for centuries but the first hurricane to be tracked by satellite was Camille in 1969.  The National Hurricane Center only consisted of 4 men.  We think we know so much about hurricanes now but we really don’t.  We’ve only been studying them in a detailed, computer driven way for about 50 years.  In the case of tropical weather, El Nino, La Nina, Global Warming and others we are just scratching the surface.  Oceanographers can’t tell us everything about the oceans because it hasn’t been explored.  When I was a kid, the dinosaurs died out because the meat eaters ate all the other non-meat-eaters and they eventually died out.  That was foolish but it was what was said.  Now, the story is that there was some sort of cataclysmic event that occurred and the giant reptiles died quickly.  Volcanoes, comet…asteroid..something. And, coincidentally, the result was said to be rapid climate change that cooled the earth and they died.  Having said all of that, in my view, it is not possible to be dealing in absolutes.  Just as it is wrong for Al Gore to say that the debate is over…we know all we need to know, it’s wrong to say absolutely the opposite and close the door the opposite direction.

In order to really answer the question one must know what is defined by the “lower troposphere.”  The troposphere goes to somewhere between 15km and 18 km.  What is the lower troposphere? 3km? 5 km?  One might say that the heating and cooling numbers are so small, that it won’t have an effect on lapse rates  in a real way.  But, if you had a hot surface and cool conditions in the lower 7km, and you have a steep lapse rate then you might expect free form convection.  But, there is a heating up stratosphere and what if radiational transport is bringing heat down to so 8 km?   Suddenly, there is a cap and convection stops with the inversion.  That would be a global suppression of convection.  I doubt that is happening either.  But, without more specifics of definition, it’s really not answerable.

Then again, as I mentioned, the question is ultimately beyond my paygrade and I’ve given some random thoughts.  Just like the enthusiasts tend to put out limited data to support their position and pretend that other data does not exist, I’ve seen bloggers out to prove the anthropogenic global warming naysayers correct by not reporting conflicting data.  But, the truth is the data does conflict.  You’ll find in this first link an allusion to your suggestion about wrong data.  Apparently, the answer from some is that the tropospheric cooling data is phony…somehow masked by the stratospheric warming that I mentioned.  I say nonsense.  That’s a cop out.  When you can’t explain something you look for an answer even if it may conflict with your worldview…that is unless your livelihood is based on that worldview.  No, a truth seeker would explore whether conflicting data may be corrupt and when it is found to be correct, then you look for the answer.  If one looks for an answer but when he finds it but doesn’t accept it because it doesn’t fit his preconceived notions so he moves on, what’s the point of looking?  They go on forever because they were looking for the answer they wanted and not for the truth.

The key here is the tropospheric cooling.  Why is there not more convection if the surface is warming?  Is there indeed more convection or is it the same?  How can one possibly make that determination without data from years ago?  If the surface is warming, why isn’t the lower troposphere?  Another consideration is that often these articles refer to averages.  If you look at the temperatures that said it was cooler in the winter, I thought I noticed that Antarctica had a warmer anomaly.  The global average was colder but the Antarctic was warm….Hmmm…what does that mean?

A long way to say I don’t know.   Here are some links that may help you try to draw some conclusions.  Just remember, politics, money, power and science are a volatile mix.

Stratospheric Cooling?

 

Comparison of Lower-Tropospheric Temperatures

 

This one will cost you money but may get at the heart of the question…or at least reveal that you aren’t the only one ponder the question at hand as to what is going on.

Reducing noise in the MSU daily lower-tropospheric global temperature dataset

Hot Spring Around the World; How About a Gun to Go With that Plow? June 17, 2008

Low and behold, the Metro area got some T’storms on Monday morning. Looks like the boys at the SPC had it goin’ on afterall. Nothing too tragic. Good thunder following the lightning. Some folks reported some small hail. But the afternoon SPC Severe T’storm Watches definitely fell in the CYA category. They cancelled the first one and put out a new one that had its eastern reaches in the eastern counties of the viewing area pretty much as the boundary was moving through. Chances of anything were slim and none. But, I suppose that is part of the margin for error. Nonetheless, we’re done with that stuff for Tuesday. Looks good. Now, Wednesday, we’re still in the northwesterly flow aloft and there is some indication that a little vortmax(disturbance) will wander down our way. It’s debatable as to whether we will have enough moisture for it to do much but, data suggests a chance for a few t’storms. We’re fine for the rest of the week until Saturday when we start to warm and afternoon storms may show up. We’ve taken the action out for Friday and pushed it back for Sunday night into early Monday.

On This Date In History: American ingenuity knows no bounds…which means sometimes it can go out of bounds. Before we get to this item, let’s remember that in the 19th Century, Americans on the frontier needed protection from Indians who didn’t take too kindly to their settling the land, from bad guys, wild animals and, during the Civil War, perhaps guerrilla warriors on the prowl. With that in mind, C.M. French and W.H. Fancher thought they’d come up with a gold mine of an idea. People on the prairie needed defense and they needed to plow their own field. If you combined the two, then you could do both at once! So, on this date in 1862, the pair submitted their armed plow to the patent office(US Pat. No. 35,600). It was a standard plow with what looks like a cannon mounted on the front. The application included the passage, “This combination enables those in agricultural pursuits to have at hand an efficient weapon of defense.” It said it was good for people on border localities who were subject to “savage feuds and guerrilla warfare.” It touted its unrivaled utility in fighting off surprise attacks on “those engaged in a peaceful avocation..” Needless to say, they didn’t get rich. Had their idea caught on, we might have bicycles today with a forward mounted howitzer.

Link to Part of Invention Summary



Global Warming Update-A few days ago we talked about how it was one of the colder Springs in the US recorded history. Well, this next bit of information just goes to show that the US does not influence the rest of the world all of the time. While we were quite chilly all spring, including May, the rest of the world was heating up. Spring 2008 was the 7th Warmest Spring and May 2008 was the 8th Warmest Spring. So, I think we’re in a wash. It was cold in winter and now we’re warm in spring. That about evens things out. Here are more details via the Louisville NWS:

Globally, 7th Warmest Spring and 8th Warmest May on Record

(Link to NOAA Report)

The combined average global land and ocean surface temperatures for spring (March-May) ranked seventh warmest, while May was the eighth warmest since worldwide records began in 1880 according to an analysis by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Spring (March-May) Highlights:

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for spring 2008 was 0.94 degrees F above the 20th Century mean of 56.7 degrees F and ranked seventh warmest based on the 1880-2008 record.

• The global land surface temperature for spring was 1.87 degrees F above the 20th Century mean of 46.4 degrees F and tied with 2000 as third warmest.

• The global ocean surface temperature for spring was 0.59 degrees F above the 20th Century mean of 61.0 degrees F and ranked 10th warmest.

May Highlights:

• For May 2008, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.81 degrees F above the 20th Century mean of 58.6 degrees F and ranked eighth warmest.

• The global land surface temperature for May was 1.26 degrees F above the 20th Century mean of 52.0 degrees F and ranked seventh warmest.

• The global ocean surface temperature for May was 0.65 degrees F above the 20th Century mean of 61.3 degrees F and ranked 10th warmest.

Snow Cover:

• The extent of spring 2008 snow cover over Eurasia was the lowest on record for any spring in the 42-year historical satellite record. Conversely, North American snow cover extent was slightly above average. For the Northern Hemisphere, spring 2008 was the third least extensive spring snow cover.

President Invokes Imaginary Right to Avoid Subpoena ; Non-Imaginary Severe Threat Friday June 13, 2008

Here is the Thursday afternoon update from the SPC regarding the severe threat for Friday into Saturday morning.  If you notice the highest probability’s location, you will see that it is along the path of an upper low or MCS that is expected to develop in Kansas and move into Missouri before swinging up toward the Ohio Valley.  This should happen in the heat of the late afternoon and evening.  As it moves up along the frontal boundary that is approaching from the west, it will enhance the severe weather threat.  What it will also do is keep the front moving slowly so rain totals will continue to be a problem in the Midwest.  The storm risk area ends just to the east of Louisville because we get into the late hours Friday night and early Saturday when the storms approach the Metro.  The storms should be on the downside of their life-cycle but we could see line segments or bow echoes that would produce gusty winds.  Bow echoes are also known to produce weak, short lived but dangerous tornadoes.  The track of the upper low and the slow moving nature of the front could also amplify the rain amounts over southern Indiana. For that reason, a Flash Flood Watch was issued on Thursday, taking effect Friday afternoon through 4 AM on Saturday.  AS the low moves by, the front will get energized and move through Kentucky fairly quickly so inordinate amounts of rain are not likely, but heavy downpours are still possible.  I’ll try to bring updates along.

On This Date In History:  On this date in 1807, President Thomas Jefferson received a subpoena to testify at the treason trial of his former Vice-President, Aaron Burr.  If you recall, Burr and Jefferson both had the same number of electoral votes for the 1800 presidential election.  The tie went to the House of Representatives who voted for Jefferson only after Tom’s old nemesis, Alexander Hamilton, reluctantly went to bat for the famous statesman.  That made Jefferson the President and Burr the Vice-President.  The original Constitution had the second place electoral vote-getter become Vice-President.  But that meant that political rivals had to be the team.  That obviously created problems and the Constitution was changed.  The problem became all too apparent when Burr, as the sitting Vice-President, took out his anger at Hamilton for his support of Jefferson, as well as other items of disagreement, by taking Hamilton to the dueling field.  Burr killed the Revolutionary Hero and a warrant was issued for the Vice-President’s arrest for murder.  Burr fled until the charges were dropped.

Well, Burr wasn’t done.  His political career was over in the United States as the public turned on him for his duel.  So, he secretly conspired with Britain and Spain to try and set up a new country in the Southwest of what is now the United States and part of Mexico.  Of course, Burr would rule the new empire.  But, he plot was foiled and he went to trial for Treason.  As part of his defense, he had Jefferson, still the sitting President, called to the trial to produce documents that would exonerate him.  But, Jefferson cited his right to protect the public interest as reason for not showing up at the trial and he only offered a few of the documents requested.  If Jefferson was trying to send Burr to the gallows it didn’t work because Chief Justice John Marshall declared that the charges were to be dropped due to lack of evidence.

Now, I’m not sure why the Chief Justice was involved unless somehow an appeal was made to the Supreme Court or if the judicial system was different then.  But, I do know that this is another of a number of instances in which President Jefferson simply ignored the Constitution to suit his needs. On these here pages, we’ve talked about the undeclared Barbary Pirate War which I suppose set the precedent for other undeclared conflicts to come and the funding of the Lewis and Clark expedition as examples of how Jefferson the President acted perhaps differently than Jefferson the author of the Declaration of Independence.  So often today, when we hear charges that the President is shredding the Constitution, we hear the name of Jefferson invoked….when in fact, Jefferson is hardly the one who should be upheld as the President who held the Constitution without contempt.