Demerol, Michael Jackson & Dr. Conrad Murray-A Young Woman and Fatty Arbuckle June 29, 2009

The Killer?

Much of the speculation making the rounds regarding the death of Michael Jackson involve Demerol and Dr. Conrad Murray. Gossip pages are running amuck.  TMZ cites a Jackson family member as a source, saying that Jackson had a daily demerol shot and had one just prior to his death.  Even some mainstream press organizations are jumping on board.   However, the lawyer for Jackson physician/cardiologist Dr Conrad Murray says his client never gave prescriptions or injections of demerol or oxycontin.  It’s all speculation but there must be some reason that the Jackson family wants a second autopsy. 

I’ve had demerol before, after shoulder surgery.  I could have an injection every 3 hours.  I could set my watch by it.  From the time of the injection, I became very sleepy and quickly was snoozing.  Every time I awoke, it was exactly 3 hours and 1 minute from the time of the injection.  It’s powerful.  Now, I know of someone who suffered from migraine headaches.  Doctors prescribed demerol.  I’ve since found studies that say its not the proper solution due to the high risk of addiction and long term toxicity.  Death happened almost instantaneously.  The amount of demerol found in the system was theraputic but there was a huge toxic level in the liver.  The lab results took a long time.  If the cause of death of Michael Jackson is demorol, my limited experience would say that its from long term use, not a single lethal injection.  If a layman like me is aware of this risk, then one would think a physician would also be aware of such a risk.

On This Date in History:  When anything happens involving a big celebrity like Michael Jackson, the public can’t get enough.  This has been true for as long as there have been performing celebrities in America.  When things went well for actor/director Fatty Arbuckle, they still went bad.  He was a big star.  So, big that he signed a 3 year contract with Warner Brothers for a million dollars in 1921.  Really huge money in those days.  When he signed the deal, he had a party. At that party, a young starlet was found drunk and bleeding in Arbuckle’s room.  He was accused of rape and murder after the woman died of a punctured bladder 3 days later. It was Hollywood’s big scandals and William Randolph Hearst made it into a media circus.  Hearst didn’t care about the facts, he was in the business of selling papers and he made it into one of the first trials “of the century.”  He is quoted as saying that the scandal “sold more newspapers than any event since the sinking of the Lusitania.” 

Mugshot of Fatty

The judge found no evidence of rape but determined that Arbuckle could be tried for manslaughter.  In fact, the whole case isn’t nearly as cut and dried as I had been led to believe.  There are numerous instances of bribes by the prosecutor, false testimony and doctored evidence.  Twice juries were hung 10-2 in favor of Arbuckle with some interesting circumstances. The third trial ended in acquittal but, the prosecutor and newspapers tried Arbuckle in public with wild, unsubstantiated salacious charges and false accusations.  The main witness wasn’t allowed to testify because she was so unreliable.  During the 3rd trial she didn’t even show up as she had been found to be planning to extort money from Arbuckle from the night of the party and besides that, she was too busy on the lecture circuit spreading her tales.  They were inadmissible and unfounded in court but good enough for the stage. 

Women Couldn't keep their hands off Fatty

Though acquitted, Arbuckle’s movies were banned in the US for something that he may not have even done.  On this date in 1933 he was signed by Warner Brothers to make a feature length film.  Perhaps it was too much for the not-so-slender Fatty.  That night he had a heart attack and died. 

Maybe he would have been better off not signing contracts with the Warner Brothers.

Weather Bottom Line:  After a week of August-Like conditions we get a nice break.  We’ve also had a lot of rain.  June official numbers come in at 9.22″ which is less than an inch shy of the all-time June record of 10.11″ set back in 1960.  Wonder if there was a remnant of a tropical cyclone back then.  This year, that was not the case, just a hot and humid pattern that lent itself to storm activity.  That pattern has shifted with a big trof setting up in the east and a semi-staitionary low in the Great Lakes.  That will put us in a northwest flow which is tough to get much rain out of.  It also will drag down dry air.  Look for lows this week in the low 60′s with some folks in the upper 50′s on Tuesday morning after a reinforcing shot of dry air filters through following a cold front quietly sneaking through Monday evening.  The models want to toss out a few showers from time to time during the week but I find that a tough solution considering the relatively dry air.  High temperatures will only be in the low 80′s.  I suppose if we were to get some isolated activity popping up, the best chances wouldn’t get started until late in the week as we warm somewhat and a front to our south tries to move northward a bit.  That would be ahead of the next system that will get ejected eastward across the plains and increase storm chances on Sunday.  Right now, the 4th of July looks pretty good.  Invest 93L is dead in the tropics.

With Obama Energy Bill Looming, Some Data Contradicts Global Warming Conventional Wisdom June 26, 2009

Maybe these cute guys like to swim and maybe their ice islands are getting smaller due to Mother Nature…possibilities that Mr. Gore doesn’t want you or anyone else to examine.

Is the Global Warming Issue Really Settled Science?

(EDIT: I really don’t need to do this but I am doing so for the benefit of one person. As you read below, nowhere will you find that I deny Global Warming.  My position, as this clearly points out, is for an honest, open and full debate, which is traditional in scientific circles. Open minds on all sides. My contention is that mankind often thinks he has an answer only to find that  we knew nothing.  I only wish people would stop using false methodology to push their position.  I would also encourage, if you like, to check out a definition of libel.)

Obama and Gore At the Same Table

Yesterday, President Obama made a speech that urged the passing of his Energy Bill,which some are calling a Global Warming Bill.  Much of it is based on the assumption that mankind is the cause of Global Warming, that there are dire consequences to Global Warming andthat mankind can and should do something to stop Global Warming.  Many would say that its based on speculation and others will suggest that the bill’s policy features, such as cap and trade, is more of a political move than anything substantive. 

It’s rather ironic that, on the same day the President made this speech, some information came from our friend Anthony Watts regarding temperatures at the North Pole.  Global Warming is supposed to cause the melting of the ice caps. 

Watts Says Arctic Coldest in 50 years

However, over the past  18-24 months, there has actually been an increase in polar ice following an all time recorded low.  Last year, there were all sorts of reports that the Arctic Ice cap might disappear completely over the summer.  That obviously did not come close to occurring.    Well, Watts reports that the average Arctic temperature has not risen above freezing which is the latest that its’ been that cold in 50 years.   He also reported that a source inside the EPA says that scientific claims are being suppressed and ignored within the EPA. 

I don’t know if it’s suppression, but the story over the past year of an undersea volcano potentially causing Arctic ice melt sure didn’t get much play…not as much as the fear that the ice cap would melt altogether last summer.   In fact, in another ironic twist, on this date in 2008, National Geographic published an article regarding the under-Arctic volcanoes that previously mankind thought was impossible.  The undersea volcano is apparently is very large and has been spewing extremely hot lava perhaps as high as two kilometers through the water.  This volcano was discovered a few years ago by accident. There had been some who had suspected that the ridge under the Arctic was oozing molten lava but no one had a clue that it was exploding with such force. One article says the eruptions are similar to the one that buried Pompeii.

Contour Map Under Arctic

Before I list a bunch of links that you can check out for yourself, I want to go back to something that I harp on. And that is that we, especially as Americans, tend to lose humility as humans and think we know everything and start talking in absolutes. Someone (Gore) goes and makes a movie, that includes secretly computer generated scenes of melting ice, and claims that all that needs to be known is known and the debate is declared over. That smacks of totalitarianism, elitism and also is an un-American effort to stifle debate in a free society. I mean, it comes from the same people who claim to be for tolerance. They tend to tolerate what they deem is acceptable and want to squash opposing viewpoints.

Once again, we find that we don’t know everything but act as if we do. Mankind is limited in it’s knowledge and incapable of dealing in absolutes. Previously I posted about the building blocks of life coming from inorganic sources from the ocean floor. Who knew? Now we find that there is a giant heat source under the Arctic that may be responsible for the rapid ice melt. Who knew? As it turns out, you’ll find in some of the links that some people did ponder the warming of ocean waters from below being the cause as they had a theory that ocean warming caused the end of the last ice age.

Did Al Conviently Leave Facts Out of his "Documentary?"

What rankles me is that this discovery was made in 2004, before the supposed documentary An Inconvenient Truth was made. If the makers didn’t know about it they should have and if it were truly a documentary and not political propaganda to push a point of view, then they would have mentioned the possibilities. And of course, the national media has focused on the topic du jour, Global Warming, and have not even sniffed at this story that first came out in 2004.

Anyway…off my soap box. Here are some links to recent articles.

Canada-Arctic Seabed Afire With Lava Spewing Volcanoes

This one apparently has been saying it’s ocean warming for quite some time.

Ice Age Now

Within that page is an article from 2007 that says a USC study shows that ocean warming and not global warming caused the end to the last ice age

USC Study

Here is an article from the National Science Foundation in 2004 that reported the accidental discovery of the volcanic activity. This was before An Inconvenient Truth was released, yet the report was ignored.

National Science Foundation

Here’s one from a site that has more of a political edge but is informative with maps and such.

The Strata-Sphere

And this one is the most recent that seems to have gotten some attention. It’s a bit political too but it has an interesting chart that shows a drop in Arctic Ice that coincides with the time of when the scientists think that the volcano erupted in 1999.

American Thinker-Arctic Ice Melt May be Due to Undersea Volcanoes

The young Bride

On This Date in History:

The most prolific President of all time got back in the saddle on this date in 1844 when President John Tyler wed his twenty-four year old second wife,Julia. The 54 year-old widower had lost his wife several months prior. She had lost her father in a cannon accident just two months prior to the wedding. You can read about the whole incident and other details on my earlier account regarding John Tyler. Bottom line is that President Tyler is the only President to be married while in office. The couple wed in secret to avoid the 19th century of the Paparazzi andbecause she was supposed to be in mourning over her father’s death and most people don’t think marrying the President of the United States as being a good exhibition of mourning. The  didn’t have much time left in office as his term was up in 8 months. But that didn’t mean that John couldn’t still get it done. He had 7 children by is first wife of 29 years. He had 8 more by his second wife. In all, he had 15 children. One was 5 years older than his 2nd wife and 45 years older than the youngest. Who says Jimmy Carter is the most accomplished former President?

Weather Bottom Line:   We had over an inch and a half of rain officiallly at the airport in the early morning hours Friday.  The lightning was pretty frequent as the thunder woke me up and I recall seeing the flashes of light with my eyes closed.    I saw a tv weather guy on Thursday night that there might be a couple of “poppers” overnight.  Uh….it was more than that.  Also, he used a term that is a pet peave of mine.  He kept referring to cold fronts as “cool” fronts.  There is no such thing.  When people do such things, I can usually ascertain where they received their academic background in Meteorlogy.  Anyway, the photos above are from last Thursday via the NWS and WDRB-TV.  Notice on the one shot the reflection in the windows of the building of the lightning that is hitting the Ohio River.  Here are expanded views of the lightning.

We should have sinking air behind the storms so I doubt if we will have anything for the rest of the day.  Saturday looks good but it will still be hot.  It’s Sunday we get another cold front that will provide a risk for strong storms again and then lower temperatures behind it for the first part of next week….probably about 10 degrees or so.

Building Blocks of Life Created on Earth from Lifelessness. A setback for Darwin? Dillinger’s 1st Failed Robbery June 24, 2009

The "Lost City"

Is This “proof” that Charles Darwin was wrong or is it just an anomyly?

I was sitting in the doctor’s office and actually found something besides Highlights or 6 month old copies of McCalls or Sports Illustrated. Doctors are notorious for providing extremely old periodicals to read. Anyway, I stumbled upon an article in Science News that talks about how organic material is apparently being created out of inorganic matter. Hydrocarbons, it is hypothesized, are being created out of inorganic chemical reactions in thermal vents in an area called the Lost City.

This Guy Might Be 30,000 yrs old

Thermal vents typically create chimneys of minerals that rise to as high as 20 meters before the collapse. What caught these guys’ eye was the vents that were up to 60 meters and it turned out that they were made up of hydrocarbons. It’s a very interesting article and is an example of how, in the 21st century, we think we are so smart and know everything, when in fact, we know very little. We also tend to find that what we think we knew, we actually didn’t know at all. I could go on about the absolutes that get thrown about on your daily tv weathercast, Global Warming and news reports about medicine, but I won’t. Nevertheless, I will say that one of the American exports of modern science is a lack of humility and lack of recognizing the limitations of man.

I’ve always reasoned that the Charles Darwin theory of Evolution was quite palatable and I can fit it in easily into my own Faith regarding the creation of the earth. But, this little article makes me wonder. I mean, if the hypothesis is correct, then this is evidence of life being created from nothing. I suppose one might say that its evolution in that the volcanic activity is the catalyst that evolves the non-life into life,

Is the Debate Really Over or is This an Attempt to End Debate?

but I don’t think that fits. It’s also just organic matter being created, not a mammal or reptile or anything. Yet, when you look at the Scientific American article that supports Darwin, I don’t think that there is a place for this discovery. They may need to make an update. Then again, if you look at the definition of evolution from Gene Zimmer’s article supporting creationism, you find that this creation of life from lifelessness does fit into the evolutionary model. Whether or not this discovery fits either worldview is immaterial to the fact that it is cool and quite interesting.

On This Date in History: There is a new movie coming out about John Dillinger which stars Johnny Depp. It will be interesting to see if they have scenes regarding a botched robbery attempt on this date in 1933 in Monticello, Indiana. Two aspects of this caper are of interest. One is that there doesn’t seem to be much information on the attempted hold up of a Marshall Fields in Monticello by Dillinger and William Shaw. I suppose its because it was a failed attempt and Americans only like to hear about wins, not losses. Perhaps the movie will shed some light. Then again, movies rarely get history correct so maybe it will invent something based on loose facts.

Anyway, the other interesting thing about Dillinger is that, even though he was Public Enemy Number 1, his career as a criminal didn’t really last all that long. He was put in jail in 1924 following the beating of Mooresville, IN grocer Frank Morgan by Dillinger and his good friend Edgar Singleton. They had been out boozing it up and jumped the guy. Dillinger got caught when, a few days after the assault on September 6, 1924, Dillinger brought attention to himself by inquiring as to the well being of Mr. Morgan. As it turns out, Morgan couldn’t identify his attackers, but Dillinger was tricked into confessing.

McNutt Thought Dillinger Capable of all Sorts of Things after long prison sentence

Meanwhile, his buddy Ed pled not guilty. Ed was out of jail after a couple of years while Dillinger got 10-20 years for assault and 2-14 years for conspiracy to commit a felony. Some scholars think that the difference in sentences is what pissed off Dillinger and led him on a life of crime. Indiana Governor Paul McNutt thought that the sentence was so harsh that it might cause Dillinger to do anything once he was out of jail. The victim, Morgan, and even the sentencing judge thought the sentence was pretty tough and by 1933, the pair was joined by 182 townfolk lobbying to let Dillinger loose. On May 22, 1933 John Dillinger was set free.

That’s the odd part. He was set free on May 22 1933 and was dead by July 22, 1934. So his crime spree only lasted for a little more than a year. His first robbery was probably in Carlisle, IN on June 10, 1933. It was on June 24, 1933 that he and Shaw tried to rob the Marshall Fields in Monticello, IN. The fact it failed was probably more associated with his lack of experience than anything else, but I don’t know for sure. Even Monticello doesn’t want to talk about it. I suppose we could say that his first robbery was on June 10 and his first fialed robbery was on June 24. Anyway, Dillinger went on to amass some $359, 322 in loot taken before he was gunned down in Chicago on July 22, 1934…or was he…read about the conspiracy theory here.

Storms Thursday?

Weather Bottom Line: The big fat ridge that was anchored over the Southeast is progressing across the southern tier of states to the west. We were under the influence on Tuesday, hence, no rain. Same will be true today. However, as the ridge continues to edge westward, it will set itself up over West Texas which will put the Ohio Valley on the periphery. This will allow little disturbances around the edge to rotate through the region from the upper plains. It’s pretty tough to pick one out and say with any certainty when it will get wherever its going and at what stregnth. But, all of the data shows a shortwave moving through here late in the day on Thursday. On the one hand, it appears that the wave will be winding down somewhat. On the other hand, its coming through in the heat of the day. So, the boys at the SPC have put the Ohio Valley in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday morning until Friday morning. Otherwise, it remains hot and somewhat humid. Humidity isn’t too bad though. Snow White and I went sculling yesterday evening and it was great.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

VALID 251200Z – 261200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU FROM PARTS OF THE MID
MS/OHIO VALLEYS THRU THE LWR GREAT LAKES…

…SYNOPSIS…
IN A BROAD SENSE…LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH REGARD
TO THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN
THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER…A
COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. IT APPEARS THAT ONE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S…FINALLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
REMNANT CLOSED LOW AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD…THOUGH A
TRAILING SHEAR AXIS TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION NEAR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST MAY LINGER. MEANWHILE…AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
NORTHEASTWARD/INLAND ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH NOW WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SUBSTANTIAL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN
AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE MANNER AND SPEED AT WHICH THIS
OCCURS…WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG NCEP SREF/MREF
MEMBERS CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND OTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN THE EVOLVING PATTERN…WHICH WILL BE OF IMPACT TO THE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

…MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST…
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES…A REMNANT PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THURSDAY…AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. WITH HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S…GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL REACH 1500-3000
J/KG. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION…THIS
DESTABILIZATION…COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE MID/UPPER FORCING…IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
FLOW FIELDS…PARTICULARLY IN LOWER/MID LEVELS…SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK…THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DOWNBURSTS AND THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOLS IN
LOOSELY ORGANIZED EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE
BANDS/CLUSTERS. THESE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS…BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

…GREAT BASIN…
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES. BUT…STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW /UP
TO 40-50 KT AT 500 MB/ APPEARS A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEVADA…PERHAPS INTO WESTERN UTAH. ASSOCIATED
MOMENTUM AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR… COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING IMPULSE…COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONG STORMS…BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT…AIDED BY
LARGE LINGERING SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS.

..KERR.. 06/24/2009

Your Fear Can Cost You Your Dreams. Live a Fearless Life. May 26, 2009

Clay-Liston Tale of the Tape

Fearsome Liston Destroyed Floyd Patterson

On this date in 1965, a young man awoke in the light of having lived a fearless life.  Just a few hours before, on May 25 in 1965, Muhammad Ali defeated Sonny Liston a second time to retain the heavyweight championship he had won from Liston on February 25, 1964. I’ll spare you most of the details as they are well documented. But, did you know that the fight was supposed to come in November 1964, but Ali had a strangulated hernia. Not sure what that is but it sounds like it hurts. Then they rescheduled it for Boston. But, the promoters didn’t have a license to promote fights in Massachusetts. For some reason, instead of getting licensed, they moved the fight to Lewiston, Maine. Why they would be licensed in Maine and not Massachusetts is beyond me. If you find out what the story is, you can share it with us. Anyway, because it was in Maine’s second largest city, only 2434 people saw the fight live. The bats draw more than twice as much as that on a daily basis. It was the lowest attended championship fight of all time.

Ali Overcame Fears To Beat the Unbeatable

Sonny Liston was feared. Many boxers wouldn’t fight him. Top contender Henry Cooper said if Ali won he would seek a shot at the title but not if Liston re-claimed the crown. Later, another boxer, George Foreman was feared. Ali overcame any fear he may have had, against Liston and again against Foreman, accepted the challenge and secured his lore as one of the greatest of all time. While the first fight against Liston was amazing and along with Ali’s 1960 Olympic gold medal put him on the boxing map, the second fight started the legend of Muhammad Ali…and it also stands as testament of what can happen when one’s faith is great enough to overcome one’s fears.

Manny Was Fearless

There is a line in the movie, Runaway Train in which Manny (Jon Voight) hears his comrade Buck (Eric Roberts) say “Manny, I can’t do it!” to which Manny replies, “You don’t know what you can do! It’s in your head!”  Don’t let the fears in your head or those created by others or by the media keep you from finding out what you can do.  Had Ali been like Henry Cooper, he never would have found out that not only was Sonny Liston beatable, but that he, Ali, was the one could and would do it.  Not once, but twice.

No Real Severe Chances from SPC until Saturday and Its Not Around Here

Weather Bottom Line:  Expect a sunny start on Tuesday and by midday, we’ll probably see alot of cumulous clouds that have a good billowing vertical development.  Should that pan out, as I think it will, look for scattered t’storms in the afternoon.  Probably somewhat numerous.   The storms will be slow movers and will tend to rain themselves out.  The severe risk is minimal but, there would probably be a fair amount of lightning and local heavy downpours will be likely.  In other words, if you find yourself under a t’storm, expect it to last for awhile and drop a goodly amount of rain. 

This soupy pattern will continue into Wednesday.  On Thursday, a cold front comes down and slowly moves through.  Rain chances will be enhanced on Thursday with the front.   T’storms I would think would be likely.  It’s a slow mover so I would call for rain chances at least off and on throughout the day.   The front moves through and there is a model consensus of slight trofiness over the Ohio Valley for about 36-48 hours.  Afternoon temperatures on Friday and Saturday will still be warm, but the humidity levels back off.  A secondary push of drier air slips through early Saturday to reinforce the drier conditions.  It goes on the retreat back through the region late Saturday but I suspect that the environment will be too dry to produce rain.  But, it should open the door for increasing humidity levels and overnight temperatures for the start of next week.

Presidential Example of How To Deal with Islamic Terrorists Helped Re-Election Bid May 18, 2009

Teddy Knew How To Take Care of Business

On This Date in History:  President Theodore Roosevelt got a boost to his re-election campaign from an unlikely source on this date in  in 1904.  The benefactor was an Islamist terrorist.  Did you think that was a late 20th century phenomena?  Of course not.  They’ve been around for quite awhile as I’ve pointed out numerous times on these here pages.  However, this event really wasn’t that long ago when you consider that the seamstress for one of the main characters just died in 2004. 

Abdul Aziz Was Tossed in 1908

This guy inadvertently helped out Teddy when he kidnapped a wealthy American, Ion Perdicaris, in Morocco.  Mubu (Mulai) Ahmed er Raisuli was considered to be a Barbary Pirate who was unhappy with the sultan of Morocco for allowing the French to have great sway and influence in the country as long as they gave him toys.  See, Sultan Abdul Aziz got bicycles, 25 grand pianos, over 600 cameras and even a gold car even though Morocco had no roads.  Well, Raisuli had enough so he decided to act.  Not in the violent way that seemed more prevalent in the early 20th Century in general and has been pervasive in Islamic politics for generations. No…he decided to follow a script that could have been written in Hollywood.

By kidnapping Perdicaris and ransoming him to the Moroccan government, he hoped to involve the United States and bring great shame in disrepute to the government which would lead to it’s demise.  His plan worked.  He got the attention of none other than the old Rough Rider himself, Teddy Roosevelt, whose re-election campaign was in need of a boost.  Roosevelt seized the opportunity and sent a negotiator even though Raisuli had a reputation for sending messengers back with their throats slit or even just sending back their heads.  In this case, Raisuli didn’t provoke Roosevelt that directly but he was being difficult.  He finally agreed to release the tycoon for $70,000 then he changed his mind.  That provoked TR.

Cruiser Brooklyn Was a Pretty Big Stick

Teddy sent a telegram to the envoy instructing him to proceed cautiously and also included numeorus other items for the envoy to consider.  But, it also included the phrase, “the government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead.”  In typical Roosevelt fashion, TR sent a bunch of warships to the coast of Morroco.  The Republican convention had unanimously re-nominated President Roosevelt but the atmosphere was dull and listless until….they read the one “bully” phrase from the telegram to the negotiator.  When the conventioneers heard that TR wanted the prisoner back alive or the captor dead, wild cheers and applause errupted on the convention floor and the campaign was off and running.  It turns out it was all for naught because by the time the telegram reached Raisuli he had already changed his mind again, accepted the money and released Perdicaris.  Of course the perception of the public was that it was Teddy’s dead or alive demand that caused the release.  The campaign never did  anything to change that perception nor did it point out that the United States had given in to every one of the pirate’s demands.

Don't Let the Facts Get in the Way of a Good Cartoon

They also didn’t tell the electorate that it had been found out that Perdicaris wasn’t even an American citizen.  The administration had found out that during the Civil War, Perdicaris had renounced his US citizenship and become a Greek citizen so that when he refused his draft call into the Confederacy, his land holdings would not be confiscated.  The fact that the captive was not an American was not known to the public for 40 years, well after Roosevelt’s death.    I don’t think anyone shouted out “Teddy lied!”  Nor was there a movement to blow up his face from Mt. Rushmore. 

Raisluli...Doesn't Look Like He Missed a Meal

Now, this Hollywood script worked better than Raisuli bargained for. He got the $70,000 but he made the Sultan look so incompetent that the Sultan’s brother overthrew the government and the new administration clamped down on the pirate Raisuli.  The French were so angered by the whole thing that they exerted even greater influence.  Perhaps there is a reason why those who wish to topple a government don’t follow a drama line…

Sean Makes a Better Raisuli Than the Real Thing

But Hollywood liked the script and in 1975 produced The Wind and the Lion that was based on the incident.  But, producers being as it is…they made some changes.  Instead of a wealthy expatriated American man getting kidnapped, the lovely Candice Bergen was held by her captive…Sean Connery…who just a few years later was named the Sexiest Man Alive!!!  

Does the picture at the upper left look like Sean Connery to you?

Here’s a link to more details if you like:

Teddy’s Big Stick

 

 

In previous years, taking target practice with beers at guys running on port-o-cans was popular...not this year

Preakness Infield Looked Nothing Like This in '09

Weather Bottom Line:

  Snow White and I had a wonderful time at Pimlico this past weekend.  But, they didn’t allow anyone to bring their own beer (BYOB) into the infield this year and attendance suffered.  It was down 35,000 from last year.  Usually, its very wild and there is no space to be found anywhere.  There were plenty of green places this year.  Beer sold for $3.50 and a pack of cigarettes sold for $10!  I talked to one guy who said the local colleges boycotted the event.  But, that was better for me because I got to see ZZ Top on the infield from about 10 feet away. 

 

Paul Richardson has a birthday today, but I don’t know how old he is but he’s closer to retirement than me.  I may have been in the Baltimore Sun because I was standing behind a woman who got her photo taken.   I met a couple from Tampa who told me that my old buddy Dave Reynolds suffered the same fate as I did.  But, because it happened to me, I was able to go to the Preakness for the first time.

You can tell I’m dodging the weather.  That’s because there’s nothing to say except a big ridge will be building in from the Southwest.  After a chilly Monday start, we begin moderating and will be quite warm by midweek.  No rain likely for the week ahead.  However, there will be a low wandering in to Florida from the Atlantic that will skid along the Gulf Coast.  It’s progged at 1008 mb and it will be interesting to see if they call it a depression.  Hurricane Season doesn’t start until June 1 but it’s not unusual for the boys at the National Hurricane Center to get aggressive with the classification of pre-season storms.  Often, it doesn’ t warrant such a thing but I think they bend the parameters a bit sometimes to get everyone’s attention.  Sorta  a marketing tool.   But, I don’t know that for certain.

Ward, You Were Awfully Hard on the Beaver! May 14, 2009

 

 

The Cleavers

On This Date in History:

  TV Guide in it’s June 2004 issue named Ward Cleaver as the 28th greatest TV dad of all time.  Everyone knows about Ward.  We all know that Ward worked with Fred Rutherford, but did you know that Ward worked in the insurance business and that Fred was his boss? (Some say he was an accountant) Leave it Beaver was and is great.  It is said that one can only judge the greatness of a book by its shelflife.  At the time of its writing, Moby Dick barely sold at all for author Herman Mellville.  I don’t think Billy Budd or anything else he wrote did well.  He died in poverty.  It was not until after Melville’s death that his writing skills were discovered and since, his has been considered a classic. It is still sold today…in other words, it has stood the test of time.  If you apply that same line of thought to television, that means the Leave it to Beaver is indeed a classic of the genre.

 

 

Hugh and Ward Are in Heaven

Now, there are all sorts of jokes out there regarding Leave it to Beaver and there were all sorts of rumors.  When jokes and rumors get spread, then you know you are an icon.  I won’t touch the joke involving the title of this post nor the references to June’s ever present Pearl necklace, perhaps made infamous by ZZ Top.  When I was a kid, the rumor was the Jerry Mathers (as the Beaver) was killed in Vietnam and that Eddie Haskell (played by Ken Osmond) was really Alice Cooper.  Of course, I had also heard that Mr. Greenjeans from Captain Kangaroo was Alice Cooper so I didn’t know what to believe.  Mathers was not killed in Vietnam and Osmond was a Los Angeles cop who was shot and wounded seriously, I believe in the late 1970′s or early 1980′s.  I believe that ended his police career.

The Dashing Hugh

But, the perception of Ward as a super dad was actually probably pretty close to the truth.  See, Ward was played by Hugh Beaumont.  He had gained some fame in the early 1940′s as he got roles that may have gone to more famous leading men of the day except that they were off fighting World War II.  Beaumont did not.  He was a contientious objector.  He went to college to the University of Chattanooga.  He played football but quit when his position was changed.  He left school but later attended USC where he got his Masters of Theology, which explains his contientious objector status.  He was ordained as a Methodist minister but turned to acting instead.  However, he was a lay minister for most of his life.  Sounds like a good guy and he probably was because he was born in Kansas and I’ve never met anyone from Kansas that just wasn’t the nicest people in the world.

Scowling Hugh on Mannix

Hugh Beaumont died on this date in 1982.  In 1972, he had a stroke and doctors said he wouldn’t walk or talk again.  Leave to Ward though…he not only recovered but did so enough to perform in community theatres and do some directing.  By that time he had retired to Minnesota to a Christmas Tree farm.  Here’s what’s kinda interesting.  See, Hugh had also done some educational and industrial films.  I suppose that one was for the Army as training for what to do in the case of nuclear fallout.  During the Cold War, there were all sorts of training and public service films out to show how one can protect themselves in the event of a nuclear exchange.  Some of you old timers may remember Burt the Turtle who knew how to protect his head and also “duck and cover” drills at school.  Of course, this was all nonsense because by the 1970′s, it was finally figured out that there was no real way to protect yourself in the event that a nuclear device is detonated in your area. 

Burt The Turtle

That gave rise to a documentary on the subject called The Atomic Cafe.  I saw this film and its pretty funny because of all of the silly ideas that it had hoisted on the public.  In one scene, you see an army officer explaining that one can avoid the dangers of nuclear detonation if you follow procedures.  The officer was none other than Hugh Beaumont.  He’s not listed in the credits and the clip seems like it was from an old army training film.  I doubt if Ward knew about it though because it was released first in New York in March 1982 and later in Finland in October 1982.  These dates are just before and after his death in Munich, Germany where he was visiting his university professor son. 

There you have it…all you never wanted to know about Ward Cleaver…who was a good guy, probably influential on many people and was no doubt, never hard on the Beaver.

Probability of hearing Thunder through 8AM Thursday

NAM-Best CAPE South/Decent SWEAT around here Thur Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  We had some rumbles of thunder early Wednesday but most of the activity was well north and most of the heaviest rain was in the northern part of the area.  That was the warm front.  Now comes the cold front.  Wednesday night, the storms were pretty vigorous to our west prompting warnings and such.  But, by the time they get here early Thursday, they should generally be just a line of t’storms.  However, as I mentioned yesterday, a few strong storms with gusty winds can’t be ruled out.  The upper support should be well north but there may be some forcing with winds coming in from the southeast bumping into winds from the southwest.  When they bump together, you can get rising air and that may help in t’storm maintanence.  Then you also have the potential for storms collapsing and big gusts of wind resulting. 

NAM Better CAPE Saturday Midday

The front is kinda pokey and doesn’t move through until Thurday afternoon so we could have some afternoon showers popping up.  As with many pokey fronts, this one doesn’t get too far and it should stall out just to our south.  That would be a region susceptable to scattered showers or storms but probably not a washout.  Now, this guy may return as a warm front on Friday night which would perhaps support some more activity.  But the real stuff comes on Saturday afternoon as a cold front moves through providing a chance for more t’storm activity and, given the time of day, if the atmosphere has time to reload, could be worthy of some interest.  After this front, we finally get out of this pattern for a few days with seasonal temperatures, dry conditions and a fair amount of sunshine beginning Sunday afternoon through midweek.

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Who Pays Paris’ Phone Bills? Join Or Die! May 9, 2009

Who Pays That Phone Bill?

Hold The Phone, Paris!  Did you see the movie, Pledge This?  Well, not too many other people did either.  See, it was a vehicle of that noted actress and producer Paris Hilton.   It was only released in 25 theatres nationwide and now the investor who sunk over $8 million into the project want’s his money back.(see NY Post Story Here)  Seems that he thinks that Paris didn’t do enough of promotion.  But, her attornies say that she is the “single busiest person on the planet.”  Actress?  That’s for you to judge.  But, executive producer?

Paris or Marie?

  Let’s let Paris tell us what an executive producer does:  “I’m not sure what a producer does, but-I don’t know. Help get cool people into the cast.”  And finally, in another part of the testimony, a lawyer was asking questions about her phone bills.  Paris was flummoxed.  She said she’s never seen a phone bill before.  When asked who does see her phone bills, she answered, “I don’t know. Like, I’m assuming whoever pays my bills.  I never ask about that stuff.”    Somewhere, the Ghost of Marie Antoinette may or may not be whispering in Paris’ ear, “let them eat cake.”

 

Philadelphia Gazette May 9 1754

On This Date In History: From someone a bit more notable and less forgetable than Paris Hilton…You may recognize this snake from the HBO Miniseries “John Adams”.   This was actually the first political cartoon to appear in American newspapers.  It was constructed by Benjamin Franklin and the pieces of the snake represent each of the colonies or sections of the colonies.  There was a superstition that a snake cut into pieces would re-unite after sunset.  It went along with Franklin’s editorial referring to the “disunited state” of the colonies and how they were better off united. 

Here’s the rub….this cartoon first appeared in the Philadelphia Gazette on this date in 1754.  That is well before the colonists were talking separation from the crown.  Nope, this was done in relation to the French and Indian War and the debate on whether the colonists would join in the fight against the French and their Indian allies.  It showed up again in 1765 when the issue of the Stamp Act arose.  Newspapers reprinted the cartoon though there were different interpretations of what it meant.  Many colonists opposed to the Stamp Act associated the image with eternity, vigilance, and prudence.  Those who were loyal to the King saw the cartoon with more biblical traditions, such as those of guile, deceit, and treachery.  Franklin was opposed to the use of the cartoon at that time but it showed up in publications nearly every week for over a year. 

Printed without permission!!  Had the legal establishment been what it is today, Franklin may have sued. But I guess he was a pretty big hitter himself.

Preliminary Storm Reports May 8 2009

Sat Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  The situation on Friday was interesting.  A derecho or something similar came across the plains toward the Ohio Valley.  It’s orientation was such that it ran across a warm front with the jet stream to the north.  The jet should have kept it going.  I had thought that it would run out of steam when it got to the Appalacian Mountains.  That part was correct.  But, it is very interesting.  When you look at the storm reports, there were 23 tornado reports and 176 wind reports.  They stretched from Missouri to Eastern Kentucky.  I believe every county in Southern Missouri was under either a t’storm or tornado warning at one time during the day.  There was a report of 106 mph winds in Carbondale, IL.  Most of the counties  in South Central and South East Kentucky were under some type of warning.  Yet, when you look at the damage reports above, you see a gap along the Ohio River from Louisville to the southeast.  Very odd.  We had a couple of inches of rain and minor flooding…but the wind damage was east and west.  I suspect this will make a good graduate student thesis in the future.

After a front moves out early Saturday, a secondary cold front comes down  later on Saturday…may trigger some showers or scattered t’storms but nothing overly rambunctious. The deepest moisture should get kicked east before it gets here.   Cooler air will filter in on Sunday as high pressure builds in with highs on Mother’s Day in the 60′s and some sunshine.  Right now, don’t etch it in stone, but late next week there is some inkling of something worthwhile in the t’storm department.  Should be dry at least through the first couple of days of the week.

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Take Moe Because Smoot and Hawley Spell Disaster May 4, 2009

.

Famous Photo May 4, 1970

On This Date In History: On this date in 1970, four Kent State students protesting the Viet Nam War were killed by National Guardsman. But I don’t want to talk about that.   President Lincoln was buried on this date in 1865 and David Frost interviewed President Nixon on this date in 1975, but I don’t want to talk about those items either.  This one is a bit more timely as it relates to those who want to have ”buy American” become the policy of the United States and to curtail NAFTA and other various free trade agreements. 

Nice Going Boys

On this date in 1930, 1028 economists petitioned Congress warning them against the Smoot-Hawley Act.  America was reeling from the 1929 stock market crash and so President Hoover and other politicians thought it was a grand idea to put a huge tariff on imported goods with the idea that it would promote the sale of American goods domestically and help turn the economy around.  The economists argued that high duties would effectively shut down foreign trade and create the exact opposite result intended.  But, politicians often do what sounds good to the public rather than take the time to explain why what sounds good is often wrong-headed.  Smoot-Hawley passed, foreign trade dried up and the result was the Great Depression.  Nice going. 

Global Trade Collapsed After Smoot Hawley

Many scholars point to the Smoot-Hawley Act as the cause of everything, though that’s probably not entirely true.  However, consider that the market crashed in October 1929 just shortly after Smoot-Hawley was passed. It took months for Hoover to think about it but when he finally did sign the bill in mid 1930, then the economy really tanked and didn’t really recover until the US got into World War II.   But, I really didn’t want to talk too much about all of that either…

Maybe the Detroit Lions Could Use These Guys

What I really wanted to talk about was Moe.  Moe Howard departed this earth on this date in 1975.  He was, of course, the ring-leader of The Three Stooges.  Not only was he in charge on the screen but also in real life.  His real name was Harry Moses Horwitz and was born on June 19, 1897.  He teamed with older brother Samuel (Shemp) and younger brother Jerome (Curly) along with Larry Fine to form the stooges, an act that had its roots in vaudeville in the early 1920′s.  Larry and Moe teamed with a rotating third stooge due to health issues and the ultimate death of Curly in 1952.  But the act went on in various forms through the 1960′s and continues today in various mediums. 

One of my favorite stories about the stooges regards Moe’s hair.  Apparently his mother was so enthralled with his hair that she wouldn’t cut it and it often fell to shoulder length.  Moe grew tired of being teased at school so he and a chum got a bowl and some scissors and performed surgery on his hair, leaving him with the mop that remained his style for the rest of his life. 

3 Unique Hairdoes

The Three Stooges are a remarkable part of popular culture in that it transcended time.  Throughout the 20th century there are probably very few entertainment acts that one could go to a kid from any time and ask if they knew who they were and what they did.  If you could transport a kid, regardless of race, ethnicity or social status, from the 1930′s to the 1990′s one of the few things they would have in common would be that they knew the funny noises the Curly made or that Moe called everyone “Porcupine.”  Given the rapid rate of change in culture, society and technology over that time span, it’s really something else if you think about it.  Now, there is a new movie about the Three Stooges beginning production soon with Sean Penn as Larry, Jim Carrey as Curly and Benicio Del Toro as Moe.  Carrey is going to gain 40 pounds to take on the role but, it seems to me that while Penn is short, Carrey is pretty tall.  I think they’re going to have to do some computer work like they did in Lord of the Rings.  Not sure how tall Del Toro is but I do know that the stooges were little short guys.  The only way of making this work is for the movie to be about the stooges and not show much of their acts because you can’t recreate the stooges, but you can tell their story.

If you want to read more about Moe, here is a link.  It’s even got a way to buy the poster of the photo above along with other trinkets!

Clown Ministry-Moe Howard Biography

 

Severe Threat Wed 8am to Thu 8am

Weather Bottom Line: The forecast is right on track and holding steady.   Monday featured predawn showers with some malingering showers throughout the morning and then generally cloudy skies for the afternoon as a wave moved off to the east along a frontal boundary to our south.  As mentioned yesterday, Look for some sunshine on Tuesday and moderating temperatures as the system moves to the east…but…the front that came through will be on the way back as a warm front as an area of low pressure forms in the Southern Plains.  That low will drag the boundary and the soupy air back our direction. 

That means rain returns on Wednesday.  The SPC woke up and put the slight risk area from generally the Ohio River and points to the southeast.  The idea here is that the low tracks up along and ahead of a cold front pressing our way from the northwest.  Louisville will be on the edge of the warm air clashing with the front but points to the east should be set up better for severe action as the low drags the warmer air north prior to the front’s arrival.   So, it’s possible for some strong stuff here on Wednesday but my guess is that it would be more likely to our east…say from Lexington and south and east of there…as they would have gotten the warm moist air in the morning and then afternoon heating and then the cold front…while in Louisville it would be the warm air coming right about the same time as the front…however….Louisville will have the cold pocket aloft with the low moving over the  top of us.  That could spell some problems…and…if the low is faster than advertised then that could create some problems..hence, Louisville is in the slight risk area.

Right now it still looks like we do it all again for the end of the week with Thursday not being too bad and then another low swinging out of the southwest dragging back the warm front ahead of a cold front on Friday. 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2009
  
   VALID 061200Z – 071200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/E TX…
  
   …CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY/ERN TX…
   MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A
   TROUGH TRACKING EWD FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN/
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OH VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
   HOWEVER…MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMPLIFICATION AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
   TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE NAM/NAMKF/ GFS
   INDICATING A MORE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE SYSTEM…BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS
   THE LEAST AMPLIFICATION.  THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS
   TRANSFER TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE GFS LACKING IN MUCH SURFACE
   LOW DEVELOPMENT…WHILE THE NAM/NAMKF/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A SURFACE
   LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. 
  
   MODELS DO TEND TO AGREE THAT A BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH TO CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR.  TSTMS…SOME SEVERE…SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
   FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS.
   STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MODERATE INSTABILITY/ MAY BE LIMITED TO
   THE SERN STATES WWD TO TX…ALONG AND S OF ONGOING MORNING
   ACTIVITY…WHERE GREATER MOISTURE/STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL
   OCCUR.  WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXTEND NEWD FROM THE MID
   SOUTH TO THE OH VALLEY. 
  
   INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   EWD TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES.  ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTEND…THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT PER NAM/NAMKF ACROSS TN/KY INTO OH
   VALLEY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  
   FARTHER SW INTO TX…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE
   ISOLATED WITH SWWD EXTENT AS HEIGHT RISES WILL TEND TO SUPPORT A
   STRONGER CAP.  IF SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH /AROUND 90
   F/…THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY.
  
   …UPPER MS VALLEY…
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY…WITH THE SURFACE
   TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI SWWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY
   LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
   EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ATOP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.
   DESPITE THESE FACTORS…LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO EARLY PERIOD
   CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MULTICELLS PRODUCING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
  
   ..PETERS.. 05/04/2009

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Specter Flip Helps GOP? House Tackles BCS; Final Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast May 2, 2009

I’d Love to See General Quarters Win

Joe May Regret Arlen’s Switch When It’s Time to Replace Souter

How Does the Switch of Arlen Specter from Republican to Democrat Hamper President Obama? 

With Specter changing sides, it helps the Democrats in passing legislation as Specter can help get them to the 60 votes needed in the Senate to block filibusters.  But, Specter is on the Judiciary Committee.  In order for a judge to come to the Senate floor for confirmation, he must first pass muster in the Senate Judiciary Committee.  The rules in the committee is that the candidate must get 10 votes with at least one coming from the minority party.  With Specter on the committee as a Republican, he could be the one guy to allow for a nominee to get to the floor.  But, with Specter gone, there really are not Republicans on the committee that  would vote for a person whom didn’t meet their standards.  The only member of the GOP on the committee that has shown any sense of bucking the party is Lindsay Graham and I doubt if he would go against the grain on a court nominee.  What this means is that President Obama is not going to be able to replace Justice David Souter on the Supreme Court with just anyone.  He will have to put forth someone whom the Republicans…or at least one Republican…on the committee will approve.  Specter’s defection may, in many regards, help the GOP and the judiciary appointments is a biggee.

House Members Investigate College Football

 

Committee Member Studies Testimony

Don’t they have better things to do?

  This reminds me of the note I posted some time ago about how, in the face of Katrina Recovery,  the Louisiana Legislature took up the issue of urinals.  So, let’s see…we have an economic crisis, an auto maker declaring bankruptcy, a flu crisis, a budget crisis, a health care crisis, 2 wars, Islamists pushing the Pakistani government with the possibility of Al Quaeda getting its hands on nuclear weapons, North Korea sending up missiles,  Iran continues to  pushing its nuclear program and Gitmo detainees potentially on American streets.  So, what does the House of Representatives think is important to hold a hearing about?  Why college football and it not having a playoff system.  Yup, there was a hearing Friday regarding the “deeply flawed” BCS system of finding a national champion in college football.  Yes, indeed.   Your tax dollars hard at work.  People complain about Congress all the time and we hear the “throw the bums out” cry.  But, most of the time, that seems to apply to the other guys, not our guy and so each district continues to send its Representative or state sends its Senator back to Washington.  Until people start to vote their own guys out, the shenanigans will continue.

00Z Sat NAM 6 hr rainfall 8AM-2PM Derby Day

00Z Sat Nam 6 hr rain 2pm to 8pm Derby Day

Kentucky Derby Weather:  Rain is in the forecast for Saturday.  The frontal boundary came through Louisville a couple of hours after the last Oaks Day Race on Friday.  There was rain in the early morning Friday that made the track wet but not really muddy.  Rain fell at a moderate rate in the evening and later Friday night in Louisville.  The front should set up shop to the South.  Louisville will be in the cooler air, which means no more warm and sticky conditions that we’ve had all week.  Instead, it will be cloudy with temperatures generally in the 50′s all day…perhaps touching 60 by day’s end.  It will probably not rain all day on Saturday but will do so off and on as little waves of energy run along the front and we get overrunning rain.  It should be generally light to perhaps moderate when it does fall.  While the folks at Churchill Downs to a good job keeping the track in good shape, remember, it is real dirt and not a synthetic surface.  The track should be wet.  The question will be how muddy is it?  You really need to check the track conditions before you make your bet.  The 00Z NAM is advertising less than a half inch for Saturday and the 18Z GFS is only coming up with about a quarter of an inch.  But, keep in mind that neither of those models nor the RUC had the rain that we got around midnight.  This illustrates how difficult it is to pick up the little waves as they roll along.  So predicting exactly when the rain falls on Saturday is generally beyond human capabilities in this situation.  We may get a stronger wave Saturday evening but I would think that would probably come after the races are over.  If you’re sticking around through the weekend, its going to be wet again on Sunday and into Monday as well.

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Effective Cop Fired April 19, 2009

Replicas of Wyatt Earp Guns...Cool and Intimidating

On This Date in History:  What a great moustache.  I always wanted to grow a moustache like Wyatt Earp.  But alas, nature did not make that possible.  I looked ridiculous with a moustache.  Earp, known for his moustache and infamy as a US Marshall in Tombstone, Arizona was fired on this date!  He was a deputy sheriff in Wichita, Kansas which was a rough and rowdy cowtown.  It took a lawman with meddle to control the ruffians that came  through town.  Earp was proficient with a long barrelled Remington.  Part of the reason he liked the Remington was that it had a strap on it from which he could sling the weapon as a club.  It is interesting to note

Bat Masterson(left) and Wyatt Earp

that historians, antique collectors and gun collectors have never been able to find Earp’s gun.  Anyway,  Wyatt preferred whacking his adversaries with his gun rather than use it as designed.  The sheriff whom he worked for was up for re-election and the opponent said some unsavory things about the sheriff.  Wyatt took umbrage and beat up the prospective candidate, most likely bopping him a few times with his pistol.  The sheriff won the election but the town council found Wyatt too violent so they fired him on this date in 1876. 

Tombstone,AZ 1881 Looking SE

What is interesting is that most of the movies and popular culture don’t really get Earp’s life correct.  It seems Wyatt went on to Dodge City, KS where he joined the police force in late May 1876.  He was there off and on through 1879.  The newspapers reported that he was well liked by the public.  He had stints in Texas and was absent for a time with speculation ranging that he had taken some time to go to Deadwood, SD to he was riding shotgun protecting stage coaches.  While he

Tombstone 1881 Allen St. Where did the trees come from?

got into some scrapes along the way with his pals Jim and Bat Masterson, he apparently had not yet established a reputation as a tough lawman in the west.  So, when the movies portray him as already having a reputation when he goes to Tombstone, AZ, it is not correct. He apparently established his legacy in Arizona.

Earp went on to fame, infamy and not much fortune though he ultimately found success as a consultant to moviemakers in Hollywood. When he died in 1929, his pallbearers included western stars Tom Mix and Hopalong Cassidy.  They say Mix wept during the funeral.

Weather Bottom Line:  It would appear that the overly aggressive GFS has backed off its severe threat a bit for Sunday regarding the tornadic threat.  However, both the GFS and NAM have vertical profiles that indicate a potential for some strong storms.  While there may be a few tough storms with gusty winds and maybe hail, this looks to be a pretty good rain event.  The NAM is throwing out almost and inch and a half by Sunday afternoon and then continues with off and on rain through Tuesday bringing a total of nearly two inches.  That secondary short wave that the models were picking up on is not really looking to be too menacing for Tuesday.  What I suspect is going on is that on Sunday that there will be clouds and rain before the afternoon when the severe threat would be the greatest and all of the clouds and rain will rob some of the energy, thus decreasing chances.  Also, the same will hold true on Tuesday.  But, Sunday afternoon is still worth keeping an eye on.  As of midday Saturday, the SPC did what I thought that they would do and revise the slight risk area. It’s not in our area but has been expanded much closer, putting us right on the edge.  Bottom line is it’s going to be wet on Sunday.  Good thing Thunder Over Louisville was not on Sunday.

Midday Sat SPC Convective Outlook for Sunday

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
  
   VALID 191200Z – 201200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN KY/TN VALLEY SWD TO
   CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW…VERTICALLY STACKED WITH H85/SURFACE
   LOWS…AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TROUGH…IS EXPECTED
   TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE REACHING ERN KS/OK AND THE OZARKS REGION
   BY 12Z SUNDAY.  MEANWHILE…MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
   ACROSS THE WRN U.S. INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES…AND DOWNSTREAM
   TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  THE
   LATTER FEATURE WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
   CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TROUGH.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONCURRENT WITH THE
   CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS AR/TN VALLEY AND
   REACH THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.
  
   IN THE LOW LEVELS…A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
   NNEWD FROM THE UPPER PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN OH BY SUNDAY
   EVENING.
  
   …LWR OH/TN VALLEYS…CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES…
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE…EMBEDDED WITHIN THE REMNANT SRN PLAINS
   TROUGH…WILL GENERALLY TURN EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE
   TN VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF STATES REGION FROM MID DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
   EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER…MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
   THIS WILL BE RATHER CLOSELY PRECEDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   ANOTHER IMPULSE…WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AND CLOUD COVER…AS LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE RETURNS
   NEWD.  THE BULK OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE BASED IN
   AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME…FROM THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
   THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  HOWEVER…MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
   LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR A 30-50 KT SLY 850
   MB JET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO TORNADO/WIND DAMAGING POTENTIAL WITH
   STORMS FORMING NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   RETURN…ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS/AL.  THIS THREAT APPEARS
   MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE START OF DAY 2…WITH SOME POTENTIAL
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
   THIS MORNING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTS
   NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY…AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET CORE
   BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH/EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER…THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LLJ MAY LINGER FOR A PERIOD ALONG
   THE GULF COAST…AND MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.
    
   THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKENING AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   FIELDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE CONTRIBUTES TO UNCERTAIN
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL
   SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED…BUT IT STILL SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES…ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING…WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  THIS INSTABILITY …AND COOL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES…IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE AT LEAST OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS…AS FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING
   OVERSPREADS THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF STATES REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.
  
   ..PETERS/KERR.. 04/18/2009

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