Will Pioneer 10 Ever Phone Home or Return with Some Friends? June 13, 2010

The Close-Up Picture Taker of Jupiter Not Only Left the Building, it left the Solar System

Pioneer 10 Says Good-Bye To Earth With Nixon in the White House

On This Date in History:  When the space probe, Pioneer 10, was launched by NASA from Cape Canaveral on March 3, 1972 its primary mission was to encounter Jupiter in December 1973.  Pioneer 10 met the challenge of its mission as earthlings stood spellbound watching the images sent back from the tiny spacecraft.  For the first time, from up close, people were able to see the “Great Red Spot” that had fascinated and perplexed earthbound observers since it was first observed.    It was during the encounter between the mosquito Pioneer 10 and the Giant Jupiter that it was confirmed that the mammoth planet consisted of liquid hydrogen without a solid surface below the thick clouds that envelop it.

Pioneer 10 Kept Going and Going

In reaching Jupiter, Pioneer 10 also proved that it was possible for a spacecraft to navigate through the asteroid belt as on July 15, 1972 it was the first man-made satellite known to do so.  Pioneer 10 also answered the question as to whether a spacecraft could handle the powerful radiation belts of Jupiter.  Pioneer 10 truly lived up to its moniker as when it got done with its Jupiter observations, it just kept on going.  It became the first spacecraft to cross the orbits of Uranus, Pluto and Neptune.  On this date in 1983,  over 11 years since it first left the earth, Pioneer 10  left the solar system using a first ever used nuclear power plant.  

NOMAD Thought that Kirk was the Creator

Now, Pioneer 10 was not alone.   Its twin, Pioneer 11 was launched about a year after Pioneer 10 shoved off from earth.  Pioneer 11 got the first close up views of Saturn and its rings, unlocking more centuries old mysteries.    The two Pioneer spacecraft paved the way for the more sophisticated Voyager probes 4 years later.  The Voyager probe became the premise for the original Star Trek movie, but that too had been more or less an expansion of a story told during the original series.  (Remember the one with “NOMAD”  the wayward 20th century probe that was looking for the creator?) 

Pioneer 10 plaque designed by Frank Drake Carl Sagan and Jon Lomberg. I'm Not Sure How Any Alien Could Make Sense of It.

When men first landed on the moon, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin left behind a plaque with a greeting from President Nixon in which he said “we came in peace for all mankind.”  I think that there were also some symbols or maps or something, just in case any aliens couldn’t read english.  Well, America felt like it had to say something in the event that their little probe might wander into the hands of someone else so on both Pioneers, there is a plaque. In fact, most human probes into space have plaques.   The two on the Pioneer spacecrafts are but 6 inches by 9 inches and each plaque is designed to show any intelligent life that may come upon them where they came from and who sent them.  There is a diagram of a man and woman along with some basic scientific symbols along with a  diagram of the solar system.  Never mind that the vast majority of the humans living on the earth could probably not recognize the solar system and certainly not the scientific symbols, any space men might think that we’re all that smart.  Scientists have noted that the plaques represent a “mark of humanity that might survive…the Solar System itself.”    One thing that they don’t say is that one of the Pioneers just might fall into the hands of someone who can decide that there is a pretty primitive civilization out there that is easily invaded and is so dumb that it provided an road map related to how to invade it.  If you look at the diagram, then you see how really far fetched it is because it seems pretty random to me, but then again, presumably, an alien would have a little more going on.  Either way anyone who finds Pioneer 10 would have a long way to come to bring it home.  The last signal received from Pioneer 10 was on January 22, 2003 or 30 years after it was launched. I think the American taxpayer got its money’s worth on a gizmo that was only supposed to last 21 months.  At last contact, Pioneer 10 was 7.6 billion miles from earth and it took over 11 hours for the faint radio signal traveling at the speed of light to reach the earthbound listeners. 

Who Knows Who May Bring Back Pioneer 10. They'd have to Be pretty advanced to figure out the schematic invented by Carl Sagan

Maybe far fetched but, how different is it really to the American Indians.  Here they were  minding their own business when from across the ocean comes some beings that look similar but different from them.  They have tools and machines that they did  not have and they just kept coming and coming from somewhere.  Would not natives of any particular region of the world look at exploring or invading Europeans much in the same way that we would view aliens from another world?  After all, even the Europeans called North America “the New World” even though it wasn’t new to the Indians.  In any event, wherever Pioneer 10 is today, 27 years after it left our Solar System, it is well beyond the imagination of those who struggled in covered wagons across the continent in the 19th century.  In fact, if you think about it, the frontier of the United States was considered closed in 1890 and  just 93 years later, man had left the Solar System.  Perhaps this is symbolic of a society whose technology is developing faster than its humanity.

NAM Called for Over 1.5" of rain from 8P to 2AM Saturday Night..It Was WRONG!!

Weather Bottom Line:  This weekend is a great example of why one should not get too married to a particular model or make grand pronouncements.  I had explained all of the caveats related to the forecast and the various solutions of the models.  I had said that there would be disturbances coming through the flow from time to time but that the timing and exact track of each would be tough.  I had guessed that late Saturday night and early Sunday morning was the best chance for heavy rain with a secondary chance early Saturday morning.  I left myself a lot of wiggle room.  Well, I saw on local TV the station that is supposedly “rated most accurate” on Friday.  The guy then had a grand pronouncement of “Local Flooding” for Saturday.   Not a percent chance or heavy rain but, “Local Flooding.”  I told Snow White that was not very wise as it was possible, but not necessarily probable and that was an awfully long limb to be on. If he was right, he’s a hero, if he’s wrong (which was the most likely scenario) then he’d look like a goat and people would definitely remember it.  In TV y0u’re usually doing well if your mistakes are not highlighted.  Even in my scenario of heavy rain on late Saturday night, the wettest models were only throwing out 1.5 to 2 inches of rain over 6 hours and I don’t think that would cause “local flooding.”  Beside that, it was possible that the main storm track would be to our North.  Some of the models did have that.  Another thing that bothered me about the forecast that I saw was the depiction of a low sitting right in the middle of a high pressure ridge.  Made no sense…but then again I had the sound turned down so maybe the error was pointed out or there was some other explanation…a supposed upper low, perhaps? I dunno.  Twas confusing to me.

SPC Severe Outllook Monday-It's obvious where the expected storm track resides

Anyway, on Friday night, the lead shortwave was mainly to our North with an appendage sticking down bringing some pretty decent rain across the area.  As I had suspected, when that guy got farther east, the sun was coming up and it got pretty rough in Eastern Kentucky and Western Virginia.  We were in the wake of that one which would provide subsidence or sinking air behind it and therefore it would  be tough for afternoon heating to overcome that resistance.  Nevertheless, Snow White was at a wedding and reported that they saw someone on in the afternoon saying that storms would be prevalent until 5 pm.  I told the brides father that if we got anything it would be well after 5 pm and to go ahead and take the photos out side. 

SPC Monday Severe Weather Probability

I believe what we have is a couple of folks looking at computers and not bothering to look and see what is really happening or not having the ability to know what is going on.  In this case, the computers were wrong.  It was not a bad forecast to call for a healthy chance for t’storms or rain Saturday evening or Saturday night.  It was wrong headed to call for “Local Flooding” 24 hours before anything ever happened.  That’s either sensationalism, ignorance or foolishness.  By Saturday afternoon, it was apparent that there was not going to be much in the way of storms in the region beyond isolated activity.  Again, its either foolish, ignorant or attempts to scare people to continue give a forecast based on what a computer said it was supposed to do instead of looking out the window and seeing what is really going on.  As it turns out, about 11pm on Saturday night…our big shortwave did come across the Ohio Valley…trouble was it was farther north, taking an Indy-Cincy route and any appendage sticking down faded out before it got to Louisville.  So, as I had feared, the models were right about the upper disturbance and even the timing, but the exact route was off by about 90 miles, which isn’t too bad given that the earth is 25000 miles around. 

Tuesday SPC Severe Outlook

So, what the hell does this have to do with anything?  We will stay in this pattern which is unsettled.  There will continue to be a trof out west that will be kicking out small pieces of energy from time to time and it will continue to be tough to know exactly where and when these guys will be tracking until they actually show themselves.  It will continue to be hot and humid.  Therefore, it will continue to be a situation in which we are just loaded with energy.  If we get a good spark in here under the right conditions, and we could see some rough weather.  But, with nothing real specific to hang your hat on, its pretty tough to give anything of reasonable certainty.  I can say that it will be unstable, hot and humid and each day there will be a risk of t’storms at least through Wednesday.  I would say that, if we do get storms in the afternoon or early evening, stay tuned to local tv or radio because there would be a fair chance of any afternoon/evening storms being trouble maker.

The LSD Psychedelic No-Hitter- No One Died June 12, 2010

Dallas Braden Celebrated His Mother's Day No-Hitter

On this Date in History:  A pitcher throwing a no-hitter is quite an accomplishment as going through an entire Major League line-up without giving up a single hit to big league hitters is quite difficult.  Typically, it happens 2 or 3 times in any given season.  Every now and then a pitcher not only denies any hits, but he also issues no walks, does not hit a batter and his teammates to do give up an error.  That would mean that 27 men came to the plate and 27 men went back to the dugout.  Perfect games are pretty rare, though Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden pulled off the feat this year against the Tampa Bay Rays and there were two others as well, which is very odd. 

Speed Makes Hitting Difficult..throw in some wildness and you can really be effective

Most of the time, a no-hitter is celebrated.  There have been some interesting ones that end up with a pitcher giving up zero hits but still losing the game.  Then there was the time that Nolan Ryan no-hit the Tigers in 1973 (box score).  Ryan was one of the hardest throwers in baseball history and racked up 5,714 strikeouts in his storied career.  He had 7 no-hitters, 12 one-hitters and 18 two-hitters.  Early in his career, he was wild and so batters had a sense of fear going against a guy who wasn’t too accurate with his pitches that often reached 100 mph.  In the 6-0 victory, Ryan struck out 17 Tigers but walked 4, which wasn’t too bad considering he walked 8 in his next no-hitter.  But, he was just wild enough to keep the Tigers on edge.  In the 9th inning, the Tigers’ Norm Cash came to the plate with a sawed off table leg as a bat.  “I wasn’t going to hit him anyway,” explained Cash.

Dock Ellis Could Be a Dominating Pitcher

Now, Ryan was naturally a little wild but he was always in control of his emotions and his focus.  The same can’t be said of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Dock Ellis.  When the right-hander took to the hill in San Diego on this date in 1970 he sported a pedestrian  4-4 record.  In his four losses, his lack of control was a key reason for the team’s defeat.  Wildness was certainly a hall mark of this game as well except for the final 3 innings.  Observers say that Ellis’ concentration suddenly became laser like and he only allowed one baserunner over the last 3 frames.     The thing is that Ellis did not even know he was going to pitch that night.  He thought that he wasn’t going to pitch until the next day.  So, what exactly  does a big leaguer do on an off day? 

Dock Ellis was known as a "free spirit"

Well, the Pirates had finished a series in San Francisco on Wednesday June 10th and after the game, the team flew to San Diego where they were to start a weekend series on Friday June 12, 1970, hence  the team was off on Thursday.   So, after the team arrived in San Diego, Ellis decided it was a good time to take a couple of trips.  First he dropped acid and then drove to Los Angeles to spend the team’s off day with friends.  He was up until all hours of the night drinking screw drivers and smoking dope.  When he woke up around noon, he promptly took another hit of acid.  He figured that it was a good thing to do since he was not going to pitch until Friday.  What Dock Ellis didn’t know was that it was Friday.  Ellis had slept all day Thursday.     About an hour after venturing into his second inning of Purple Haze, his girlfriend informed him that he was scheduled to pitch that night.  Whoops!   So, he caught a quick flight from LA to San Diego and arrived in time for the game.  What’s a guy to do who is tripping on LSD before he starts throwing 90 mph fastballs to batters? Should you call in sick? Nope; can’t let the team down.  Dock decided it was a good idea to load up on 6 amphetimines!

Ellis Was Pretty Care-Free In His 20's but Later Gave His Time to Rehabilitate Prisoners

Ellis recalled later, “I can only remember bits and pieces of the game.  I was psyched.”   I suppose he’s lucky that he didn’t have a “bad trip” because Ellis says that he had a “feeling of euphoria” and was “zeroed in on the cather’s glove.”  Ellis admitted though that he did not hit the catcher’s mitt too much.  See, Ellis hit one batter and walked 8 others.  After 6 innings the count was one hit batter and 7 walks!   Of the 9 total baserunners, 3 successfully stole bases off him, but no one crossed  the plate…and no one registered a base hit.  But, Ellis doesn’t remember much of that either.  He recalls the bases being loaded a couple of times and he remembers hitting the batter…but that’s about it.  What he does remember is the hallucinations he had while on the mound and most observers say that its a miracle that he not only pitched a no-hitter but also did not hurt or kill anyone.    As it turns out, Ellis can thank Willie Stargell for his success as the slugger hit two solo homeruns to secure the 2-0 win.  This was truly an ugly no-hitter that has only gotten uglier 40 years later when it is now known that Dock Ellis threw the only LSD aided No-Hitter in Major League History.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook June 12 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  Saturday morning featured that little shortwave that I had mentioned yesterday.  As I had suspected it was mainly just  a rain event with perhaps some thunder.  It will continue to be warm and humid throughout the day.  The next disturbance on Saturday morning was well out to the west so it fits that we get our next best chance of rain late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  The timing will also limit the severe potential but heavy rain in spots is possible.   After that, I suspect that this unsettled pattern will stick around for a few days so get used to the unseasonably warm and humid conditions with periods of rain and t’storms passing through from time to time.

Some of the Most Creative and Patriotic Photos of the 20th Century June 11, 2010

June 11, 1918

American Flag Made Up of Americans

On This Date in History:  Once American committed to participating in the Great War, American patriotism rose to great levels.  A young commercial photographer by the name of Arthur Mole rode the wave of patriotic zeal with a series of creative photographs.   So popular was his work that it continued after World War I was over.  Mole was an Englishman by birth and worked with an American photographer by the name of John D. Thomas.  One must remember that, in those days there were no technical tricks to enhance a photo.  What the camera lens saw was what was recorded on the film.   Today, there is a photographer, Spencer Tunick,  that uses masses of human bodies who are naked to make some sort of artistic statement or merely to add to the shock value.  But,  Mole choreographed people to form patriotic images on a large scale. 

A Close-Up of the Wilson formation; note the people who make up the nose and glasses

Look at the photo at the top of the page of Woodrow Wilson carefully.  It’s not a drawing. It’s perhaps Moles most famous  photo taken from a 70 foot tower On This Date in 1918 by Arthur Mole.  He got some 21,000 soldiers at Camp Sherman in Chillicothe, Ohio to stand in formation such that it looked like President Wilson from his perch above.  It seems like to me these guys were supposed to be “army training” as Bill Murray said in Stripes.  But, somehow they found time to fill in a carefully detailed outline on the ground.  Mole then got a megaphone and barked instructions.  One soldier was so excited about standing around for the photo that he wrote his mother, “Hey Mom!  I was part of President Wilson’s left eyebrow today.”  I guess it was a nice diversion to the prospect of going “over there” to fight World War I.  Then again, maybe they never went overseas because the war was over by the end of the year and Mole went on to use thousands of soldiers to pose for numerous patriotic pictures.  I can hear it now, “what did  you do in the Great War, Grandpa?….I stood around and represented a dot on huge human portraits!”    It’s kinda silly but kinda cool too.  Mole inspired innovative ideas in photography in the 20th century. 

Arthur S. Mole "Human Liberty Bell" (1918) Camp Dix (sources claim anywhere from 12,500 soldiers to 27,000)

With the popularity of his photos, Mole and Thomas were commmissioned after the war to continue to use military personnel to create numerous photographs of symbols.  We often see this type of effort used in large stadiums in which people hold up cards to create a large scale image and it’s often quite impressive.  But, if you look at the detail on the images, Mole’s work is quite remarkable.  The eyeglasses on President Wilson are so clear and distinct it’s hard to believe that those eyeglasses are made up of people.  Now, aside from the popularity of the photos, the US government had an ulterior motive for commissioning the work of Mole and Thomas.  During the war, they were intended to help combat public support for isolationism.  After the war, they were used as a way to inspire a patriotic spirit and ward off the socialist movement that had been building since the early part of the 20th Century.    I’m not sure if how much these photos lived up to the political expectations but the imagery is certainly timeless.  In my mind, Mole must have had a keen imagination; not just for the entire concept but also how he had to have envisioned in his mind how a photograph would appear if he dressed certain people in a certain manner in a certain position.  He had no computers; it was all in his mind. 

Wonder Who Got to Be the Point of Uncle Sam's Beard?

There is no doubt that Mole and Thomas had tremendous creativity flowing through their brains to conceive of the project and then envision what it would look like before they started.  Beyond that, there was also a remarkable ability related to logistics.  It’s difficult to get thousands of people to stand in straight lines.  For this project, they had to get thousands of people to dress appropriately and then stand in a specific spot that was rarely in a logical place from an earthbound observer.  Only someone perched high above could see the rationale behind the placements.  It is difficult to ascertain just exactly how long each photograph took to create. 

US Marine Corps

Naturally, snapping the shutter wasn’t the issue but the time it took to get everyone in place.  Imagine if you were the first guy.  You might be standing in the same place for hours.  These photos were generally taken in the summer months so the participants had to be fed and watered and also allowed to find restroom facilities.  Everyone involved had to have great patience.  Perhaps the military was the only organization that would be able to pull such an effort off.  Their soldiers had discipline and had the sheer numbers necessary. 

There are so many photos available, that it is impossible to show each one individually.  So, I”ve added a bunch of thumbnails so that you can click on each one to see a better view of that image.  Curiously, it’s difficult to find much reliable biographical information on Arthur Mole.  Wikipedia is not really a realiable source but even that entry is relatively small.  Although Mole died in 1983, I suppose that its fitting that we don’t know much about the man because an artist tends to tell his story through his work. 

So, while there is not much text regarding Arthur Mole, the images he left behind will last forever.  One might say that his work is a living legacy to the United States, but then again, one might say that it’s a living legacy to a creative genius whose story must be quite interesting, yet, seems to take a backseat to his legacy of art.  I suppose he’d probably like it that way.

SPC Severe Outlook Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:   I fully expected Friday to be a warm and humid day.  As of this writing, it was exactly that.  However, in the middle of the day some strong storms popped up in the western part of the viewing area around Dubois county.  I wasn’t surprised by the scattered thunderstorms or that they could individually drop heavy rain and feature some strong winds.  What did surprise me was the time of the day.  What this indicates to me is that we obviosly have a very unstable environment and that there are little upper disturbances coming through flow.  These disturbances are so small that its difficult to pinpoint as to timing or location. 

SPC Severe Probability Outlook June 12 2010

One feature that does show up on both the 12Z GFS and NAM models is a fairly robust vormax that comes from the southwest almost right  over the top of Louisville on Saturday morning and that has actually been fairly consistent over the past model runs.  Given that the feature would come through in the early morning, my guess is that we get some heavy rain with gusty winds but that the liklihood of it being severe in nature is somewhat limited.  Having said that, it is possible.  I should think that if another little shortwave appears in the afternoon that there would be sufficient heating and enough time for the atmosphere to reload from any morning activity that we may have some potential for rough stuff Saturday afternoon.  I’m seeing on some models that another fairly significant disturbance shows up on Sunday morning but that goes into the “who knows” category given that it is so far out and that it is not a consistent feature on all of the models.  But, the front is not going to come through so we’ll stay warm and humid and if the boundary doesn’t lift far enough north, then Sunday may be active too.

NAM Calls for Over 1.5" of rain from 8P to 2AM Saturday Night

The GFS vertical profile derived parameters for the next few days advertises rain off and on through Monday.  There is a bunch of energy but it does not just go bananas on severe parameters.  However it does advertise the heaviest rain for Saturday evening and night.  The NAM has pretty high levels for Saturday morning but not much rain and then on Saturday afternoon and evening the severe parameters just go bonkers and it calls for well over an inch of rain Saturday night through midday Sunday.  The RUC was convinced that there would be strong stuff Friday afternoon, but that does not seem to be in the cards.  So, as you can see, its all over the place but its safe to say that at some time, we will probably be under the threat for thunderstorms; most likely Saturday morning and then Saturday evening with I would think the best chance for strong stuff late Saturday.  I would also keep in nmind that rain chances will be relatively healthy all  weekend.

Ben Franklin Flies Kite Into History, Though He Wasn’t The First June 10, 2010

Franklin Developed the Declaration of Independence with Adams and Jefferson

On This Date in History: Benjamin Franklin was remarkable.  He invented the pot-bellied stove that bears his name, bifocal glasses and a number of other items. He was a successful printer and, of course, statesman.  He was the first Postmaster General of America, contributed to the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution as well as a diplomat throughout the American Revolution.  While he is considered a key member of America’s founding fathers, his scientific endeavors have left him with a legacy of one of the great experimental scientists of the 18th Century.  Franklin is  largely credited with proving that lightning was electrical in nature.   Now, he first proposed an experiment in which he would attach a long iron rod to a box and then place the box and rod atop a bell tower or something else tall. He then would have a man in the box holding on to the rod.  If the person thought it was too dangerous, then he could hold on to a wax handle attached to a wire that was attached to the rod.   Franklin never tried his experiment with the rod sticking 20 or 30 feet above his box.  But a few other people in Europe did.  Swedish physicist G. W. Richmann met an untimely death in Russia in 1753 trying the experiment out. 

Young Printer Ben

On this date in 1752, Franklin attempted his other great idea and that was with the kite.  Keep in mind, that some accounts have different dates.   He thought it was more practical than his previous proposition because it would extend higher in the sky and was a mobile experiment.  He could go to the storm instead of the storm coming to him.  He attached a key on the string and when the lightning hit the kite, he received a shock. See, electricity had already been discovered and lightning was hypothesized to be electrical based on observation but Franklin wanted to prove it.  Some claim that Ben had an early capacitor, a Leyden Jar, attached that stored the charge.  Either way, Franklin generally gets credit for proving that lightning was electrical and he lived to tell about it.  But….there was this French guy…Thomas-Francois D’Alibard… tried Franklin’s proposed experiment in May 1752 near Paris.  Apparently, Franklin had published an outline of the experiment that he proposed.  D’Alibard attempted the experiment before Franklin had an opportunity to do so and it worked.  The Frenchman lived to tell about it and he did so.  But,  no one seems to remember D’Alibard.  I can’t even find a picture or painting of D’Alibard.   Perhaps he didn’t shout it loud enough or maybe  it was due to the fact that  it was Franklin’s idea and Franklin’s published experiment.  In any event, Ben gets the credit.  In this account, the author says that Dr. Franklin never recorded the events of his kite flying experiment but instead apparently dictated the account to Joseph Priestley who published the story of the event 15 years after the experiment.  In this account, Priestley says that Franklin touched his knuckle to the key to confirm the presence of electricity.  Interestingly, Priestley also seems to confirm that, not only did the Frenchmen conduct the experiment a month before, but that Franklin was aware of the claim but not before he made his own experiment.   

Schematic of Franklin's Lightning Bells

 Franklin went on to invent the lightning rod to protect homes from the electricity he proved.  He also  coined the terms still in use today that are related to electricity:   battery, conductor, condenser, charge, discharge, uncharged, negative, minus, plus, electric shock, and electrician.   Dr. Franklin followed up his kite experiment with another device he called lightning bells.   In September 1752, he took an iron rod to draw electricity down to his house during a thunderstorm so he could conduct more experiments.  It was attached to bells and when the bells rung, then he knew it was electrified.  Much to his surprise, Franklin found that the bells would ring when there was no lightning or thunder present but instead just a dark cloud.  Other times the bells would stop ringing after he observed the flash of lightning. 

Why this French guy or Franklin wasn’t killed is more of a miracle than anything else. They had no idea that the temperature lightning can be as high as  50,000 degrees F and have millions of volts and tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of Amps.  It is has been speculated that, in cases in which people have been hit by a full stroke of lightning, they are vaporized.  My guess is that in both cases, the two of them captured but a small portion of the actual lightning strike and therefore only received a small shock.  Otherwise, Ben might not have made it on the $100 bill or been around to help found the nation.

Franklin's observer was his son, who was a full grown man at the time

If you look at the picture above….there is another person.  In many paintings, there is this unidentified person with Franklin.  I had heard years ago that really an African American slave held the key and was killed, which explains why Franklin didn’t die.  But, that seems very unlikely since Franklin was a Quaker and was against slavery wholeheartedly.  Instead, the other person portrayed is that of Franklin’ s son.  Ben didn’t  like to advertise his experiements because, when something went wrong, he would be subject to ridicule from the public.  So, the only person he told about his conducting the kite experiment was his son, who was in his early 20′s at the time.  In some paintings, the extra person is a young boy as some artists assumed that, if Franklin’s son was present, he must have been a young boy and not a full grown man.  There is another error in the painting.  Franklin was under a shed or some other awning for protection from the rain.  He wasn’t standing out in a thunderstorm.   

It Was Hector Heathcote!

 I like another explanation as to why Franklin wasn’t killed.  There was a cartoon with a guy named Hector Heathcote who always was involved in historical events. In one episode, Franklin was flying his kite and he handed it to Heathcote for a moment. At that moment, lightning struck and Heathcote was electricuted!  I say it was Hector Heathcote that discovered electricity!  Yes indeed.  American television cartoons uncovered the mystery and you heard it here first.  Perhaps Hector should be on the $100 bill.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  It’s going to be pretty warm on Thursday and early Friday, we have a warm front moving north.  What that will do is open us up to a southerly flow and an increase in moisture.  So, with temperatures pushing toward 90 and increased instability brought about with higher moisture, we could see some afternoon thunderstorms on a scattered basis.  Saturday, we have a cold front coming down into the moisture  rich environment.  In addition to the lifting feature of this front, there will no doubt be some waves of energy wandering along the front.  Hence, Saturday there will be the prospects of some strong storms in the area.   At one time, the front was progged to come through and cool things off but now, it would seem unlikely as the long wave flow is such that the boundary will most likely simply stay to our north and slip by to the east.  With that scenario, we will continue dancing with 90 for the foreseeable future.

Not All Floods Can Be Blamed On The Beaver June 9, 2010

How Can This Little Guy Be Blamed For Anything

Moravia Could Not Escape the Flood Waters

Recently, parts of Europe have received a large amount of rain which has caused problems.  The Prague Post reported that late May floods in the Czech Republic has had the worst flooding since 2002 and points out that the financial cost of the floods is doing nothing but creating a potentially bigger financial crisis in that nation.   In Poland, the flooding took 15 lives and the comparisons there are to the flooding scenario of 1997.   Apparently, after that flood event, the country made infrastructure changes to build up flood defenses.  As it turns out, some of the efforts have failed.  Oh…it’s not being blamed on poor engineering or construction or government regulation or public officials taking bribes.  No, the flooding in Poland is  blamed on beavers.   The estimate is that over 50,000 beaver live in Poland and they enjoy a measure of protection, according to animal welfare services.  

Flooding In Poland Caused by Beavers, Not Too Much Rain?

Now, for a long time I have wondered why it is that human activity is considered to not be natural when that activity changes ecosystems but the behavior of other mammals is thought to be natural.  Beavers necessarily transform and change ecosystems.  Beavers will build a dam.  That dam produces a lagoon.  That lagoon eventually fills up with sediments and a meadow is created.  What had been a flowing creek or small river tends to be destroyed by the beaver dam and a new ecosystem that supports different types of wildlife is created from the transformation.  That is considered natural whereas when man builds a dam and changes an ecosystem, it’s not natural.  Hmm.  In any event, man built these flood defenses in Poland and now the beaver has been digging holes.  When they dig their tunnels into the sides of levees, it weakens the flood control structure and the result has been that, with swollen rivers, some of the flood defenses have failed.  So, in response, authorities are upping the hunting quota on the beaver.  The “unnatural” activity of man building levees are winning out against the “natural” activity of the beaver, which has been destroying and recreating ecosystems for as long as they have been around. 

Cars No Haven From Floods In Rapid City June 1972

Debris From Homes Against A Bridge

On This Date In History: When flooding occurs in the US and dams or levees fail, the first thing that we tend to do is blame someone.   That someone is never wildlife like the friendly beaver.  Typically, its some corporate malfeasance, corrupt government official or lack of governmental regulation that is at the root of the evil.  Rarely do we put the cause of any event, where more often than not it should reside,  at the feet of the laws of Physics.  Sometimes, it’s no one’s fault and you can’t blame it on the beavers.

Gaging Station Records Along Rapid Creek June 1972

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota. A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours. Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable. During that time, some ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprang up.   Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain. On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came and the deluge continued throughout the Rapid Creek Valley.  Some 10-15 inches of rain fell over the Rapid Creek watershed.  At the time, media reports claimed that the Pactola structure failed.  It did not.  In fact,  post analysis estimates are that the flood control project actually saved lives and damage as it reduced the flow to the Canyon Lake resevoir.  Now the dam at Canyon Lake was the one that got into trouble. A bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam. The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City.   Over 4 days,  16000 acre feet of water rolled through Rapid City and the flooding resulted in the loss of 238 lives.   Most of the homeowners had no insurance.   Today the dam has been rebuilt. I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today.   There’s one big difference.   There is no residential community in the flood plain any more.   Today it’s a golf course.  

Only Slabs Remained Where Houses Had Been

The 1972 Rapid City Flood has been revisited numerous times.  As it turns out, most of the rain fell between the Pactola Resevoir and the city.  In an effort to try and prevent a similar tragedy, studies were conducted but it was found that the geology precluded the construction of other dams.  The conclusion was that the best course of action was to create a  ”greenway” or park system in the flood plain.  Hence, no more homes and business.    It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events and how shortsighted we were in doing some things, like putting homes in a flood plain.   I really wasn’t anyone’s fault though.  Sometimes, things just happen that are beyond man’s grasp.  I guess building houses in that area was a good idea back when it was first proposed.  It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”  Or, as in the case of Poland, the beaver did the disposing.

LMK Rain Total Map for Louisville Area June 9, 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  Things worked out as advertised…at least on these here pages.  We had some fairly heavy rain with a fair amount of thunder and lightning and it happened well after midnight.  I got waken up about 3:39 AM on Wednesday.  Rain totals were generally from .75″ to 1.50″.  It was a little more substantial in spots than I might have anticipated but I was mainly focused on the severe threat which I was not too enthused about as the timing came about as I expected.  Look for fog Thursday morning.  This front really didn’t bring much in the way of drier or even cooler air.  So, the dewpoints are not that low and with the moisture from the rain..fog.  We will be in the upper 80′s to low 90′s to wind up the week before we get another t’storm chance for the weekend.

Immigration To US Has Been Controversial for over 150 Years June 8, 2010

1899 Cartoon: Immigrant-"Can I come in?" Uncle Sam- "I 'spose you can; there's no law to keep you out."

Big Daddy Grover?

On This Date in History:  Grover Cleveland was the only president to serve two non-consecutively terms as President of the United States. So, it is quite common for him to be  listed as the 22nd and 24th President.  In his first campaign, there was much mud-slinging between he and Republican James G. Blaine.  The accusations against Blaine were pretty pedestrian.   They claimed that he took bribes.  Cleveland was accused of fathering a child with a woman to whom he was not married!   In a world in which we are used to politicians making denials to claims against them, Cleveland took a novel approach.   Guilty as charged.  He acknowledged the legitimacy to the question and said that the child was indeed his.  The American people seemed to shrug their shoulders and Cleveland was promptly elected.  Goes to show, all you need to do is tell the truth!   It’s amazing how difficult it is for some politicians to try such a simple and winning formula. Interestingly, the mother named the baby boy, Oscar Folsom Cleveland.

Grover's Bride Was His Best Friends Daughter

Now, Cleveland was an attorney by trade and he had a partner in practice by the name of Oscar Folsom, which raises the question as to why the mother used both the law partner’s names.  Anyway,  Folsom died in 1873 following an unfortunate carriage accident and left his old friend Grover to manage the estate.  And manage he did!  No, he didn’t marry his good friend’s wife…he married his daughter.  Frances Clara Folsom was but 9 years old when her father died but Cleveland made sure that she and her mother’s finances were in order.  After Frances Clara  graduated from Wells College, he proposed marriage.   Frances was not one to make a rush decision so she took a trip to Europe to clear her mind.  When she returned, no doubt some thought she had lost her mind because the on June 2,  1886, President Grover Cleveland became the first president to be married in the White House to Frances, who was 27 years his junior.  I wonder if when she was growing up she called him “Uncle Grover.” 

Doubtful that the Baby Ruth Bar Was Named For Cleveland's Daughter Ruth

They had several children, one of which was Ruth.  The official story by the maker of the “Baby Ruth” candy bar was that it was named after the President’s daughter.  Somehow, a judge sided with the company in a lawsuit it brought against the makers of the “Babe Ruth Home Run Bar” saying the competitor’s name too closely resembled “Baby Ruth.”  Trouble is, Ruth Cleveland died in 1904, the candy company wasn’t in existance until 1916 and the “Baby Ruth” bar wasn’t born until 1921…or about the time that a certain George Herman Ruth was beginning to make a name for himself.  But, the makers stuck to the story  and, to this day as far as I know, the estate of Babe Ruth has not gotten a dime from the makers of the bar.

Big Daddy Grover-Investigated Anyone in Gov't Who Was Not Born in the US...How Would That Fly Today?

So, let’s jump ahead almost to the Cleveland’s 10th wedding annivesary.  President Cleveland was in his second term as President and was the defacto head of a Democrat Party.  Now, at this time there were no real laws to limit or control immigration.  Yet, anti-immigrant sentiment had run high in the nation throughout the 19th century.  In Antebellum America there was even a political party called the American Party that had some cloudt and became known as the “Know Nothings” with a platform that took an exceptional view of Americans born in the country and opposed any “non-native” Americans.  Well, by the late 19th Century, the Democrat Party had taken the lead in anti-immigrant sentiments.  Hence, as head of that party,  on this date in 1896 Cleveland ordered his cabinet secretaries to determine exactly how many foreigners worked in the federal government.  Much like illegal immigrants today, late 19th Century immigrants from Europe were blamed for rising crime rates. Cleveland held these “aliens” responsible for bringing with them ideas like socialism and communism. Once he found out the identities of the culprits, he had them investigated for potential subversive behaviour.   Cleveland maintained that it was his duty and the right of the government to “prevent the influx of elements hostile to its internal peace and security…even where there is not treaty stipulation on the subject.” I’m just not sure how far back Cleveland took this. I mean, ultimately, everyone except for the Native Americans were immigrants at one point or another. If the investigators took it to the limit, then they’d have to investigate everyone in the government including the other investigators and the President himself!!

We are a Nation of Laws

Today, we often hear of protestors who claim that governmental is unconstitutional or over-reaching.   Many times, those bringing the charges are simply not well versed in Constitutional Law but, some times, the charges may hold merit.  Either way,  it would be wrong to assume it had never happened in American history.   And it would be wrong to assume that the country would necessarily fall to pieces if the supposed un-Constitutional behavior of the government came about.  Eventually, we seem to get things right.   The pendulum of power has always swayed too and fro and as long as there are counterbalances amongst the people, the branches of government and the judicial system then things tend to work out in the end.  The key to this democracy, in my view, is to maintain the balance of power between states, Congress, the executive and judiciary and to make certain that each part of government is by and for the people, not by and for those who would make themselves king or the would-be king makers.

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday...I wouldn't worry about it.

Weather Bottom Line:  Snow White and I had planned to take our niece, McKenna, to visit the animals at Henry’s Ark today.  My sister-in-law informed us “it’s supposed to rain” on Tuesday.  I told her nonsense.  But, it’s an example of how people perceive forecasts.  I told you yesterday that I had seen forecasts of 50% chance of rain for Tuesday and 50% on Wednesday and then it changed to 40% on Tuesday and 60% on Wednesday.  Either way, when someone sees 40% then most people assume its going to rain.  The truth is, it has been my experience that the majority of people on TV don’t even know what the rain chance means.  They will usually say that a 40% chance of rain means that there will be “a 40% coverage of rain.”  That would be wrong.  Officially what it means is that at the forecast site, in this case the airport, given the forecast conditions that there would be measurable rain in that rain gauge 40 out of 100 days of similar weather conditions.  It has nothing to do with coverage nor with rain amounts.  In order for it be to an issue of coverage, uou would have to have a rain gauge about every 100 feet in the area because one must be able to verify an hypothesis.  Now, the last station I worked for was quite reasonable because no one lives at the airport.  So, we modified the meaning to say that at any given point in our viewing area we were forecasting that there would be rain 40 out of 100 days. 

SPC Severe Outlook Wednesday

When I forecast, I always took the public perception into account.  I personally did not think it would rain on Tuesday but had noted that a couple of models wanted to throw out a few sprinkles.  I  figured that the best chance for rain would be after midnight and on Wednesday.  So, I would have put a 20% or 30% chance of rain on Tuesday because when people see that, they think that it won’t rain and I didn’t much think that it would but would have allowed for perhaps an outside possibility.  By elevating the rain chances to say 70% for late Tuesday night and Wednesday, that would indicate to people when the best chance for rain was and also play to the perception that 70% means to most people that it will indeed rain. 

SPC Wednesday Severe Probability

All of this is holding true.  Our air is just so doggone dry that I don’t see how the storms from the west will be able to hold together and by the time they get here, it will be after dark.   On Wednesday, the storms will get going again but the best chance for them to really get rambunctious would be to our east when they are  moving through  the heating of the day.  My guess is that we get rain in the first part of Wednesday and those storms become stronger as they head toward Lexington.  However, should the initiation take place just to our west on say an outflow boundary left over from the Tuesday storms, then there would be the potential for some strong storms on Wednesday.   So, I would say that its possible but  not probable for strong storms in our region but that at least some shower or even thundershower activity will be in the region.  After that, it gets hot heading into next weekend when it would appear that there may be another opportunity for strong storms.

Skid Road to Skid Row: Seattle Pays Its Namesake For His Trouble June 7, 2010

Skid Road Seattle

Skid Road Near Utsalady

On This Date in History:  In the early 1850′s, white settlers set up logging operations in what is now Seattle.  The settlement was mainly made up of men which prompted Asa Mercer to set up a scheme to import women to the region.  About 140 years later that effort was made famous in a television adaptation called Here Comes the Brides.   Now, what the area lacked in women it made up in timber.  The area was teeming with trees but they needed a way to easily get the felled trees to the sawmill set up in the town.   They used to skid logs down a chute on the main street to get them to the sawmill. The road came to be known as “skid road”.    Later, as the town’s main center moved north, the road was left in a dilapidated part of town filled with drunkards and derelicts. The part of town went from being known as “skid road” to “skid row” and today the term “skid row” has made its way into the American lexicon for the dilapidated area of any town in the country.

Skid Road Near Snoqualmie

By the end of the Civil War, business was blowing and going in the Pacific Northwest as westward expansion was back on the minds of Americans (it never really abated much) and there was the issue of reconstructing all of the destruction brought on by the Civil War.  So, Seattle was a growing, bustling town and skid road was no doubt a busy  timber thoroughfare. Amidst all of this,  On This Date in 1866, an Indian Chief died. He was a chief of the Duwamish and Suquamish tribes having gained the leadership of both tribes by having a Suquamish father and a Duwamish mother. He was born in the late 18th century and by the 1850′s,  when white settlers from America started setting up villages, the chief welcomed the strangers.   Inn homage to his kindness, the settlers named the village they set up on Puget Sound for him. They called it Seattle. Chief Seattle  (aka Sealth) was a pretty smart guy as, even though he thought the whites would eventually eradicate his people, he figured that fighting them would only hasten their demise. A couple of other tribes disagreed and started a war, only to surmise that Seattle was probably right all along and they too put down their weapons and made the best of the situation as they could.

Chief Seattle An Unlikely Benefactor For the Pacific Northwest

However, Chief Seattle had a little problem. In the Indian tradition, the mention of a dead man’s name would disturb his eternal rest and with a town bearing his name, the Chief would be quite restless in eternity. Well, the settlers couldn’t possibly change the name of their town. So, instead, they came up with a truly American solution.  For the discomfort of his having to live eternity in a restless state they thought that they would pay him to make his final years on earth a little more settled.  Americans from the beginning of the nation have been repulsed by the idea of taxation when they felt it was subjected on them by outside forces.  But this was different because the citizenry levied a tax on themselves to raise money for a little fund that they paid to Chief Seattle before he died as a payoff for the trouble he would be in when he passed from this world. On June 7, 1866 Chief Seattle died and by not living longer, Seattle gave one more gift to the people of the town that bore his name:  he saved the taxpayers of Seattle money.

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday

Weather Bottom Line:  I have to say that in a quick analysis of the maps and other data, I was fully prepared to say that we have a decent risk of severe weather on Wednesday.  We have a low coming through the flow that will be just to our North and closer than the last one that moved west to east along the lower Great Lakes and brought a bunch of nasty weather from Northern Illinois through Northern Ohio over the weekend.  It seemed a reasonable assumption.  But, closer examination gives me some pause.

SPC Severe Outlook Wednesday

First off, I’ve seen several forecasts that have Tuesday with either an equal or even higher rain chance than Wednesday.  The boys at the SPC have our area on the eastern edge of the area of slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday.  Then, we’re on the western periphery of a smaller area for the Wednesday slight risk.  From observing the maps, I was not certain exactly why they would be so agressive on the Tuesday outline.  The only thing that I could figure was that they were looking at perhaps storms to the west holding together sufficiently to make it to our area before midnight.  I’m not so sure  I buy this.  We’ve got pretty dry air over us and I”m not so sure that the atmospheric column will destablize enough by late Tuesday to support any such storms.  The GFS does throw out a few showers on Tuesday afternoon but the NAM keeps us dry.

SPC Wed Severe Weather Probability

I had anticipated that severe parameters derived from forecast vertical profiles would reveal a healthy severe chance for Wednesday when the low actually comes close, we would have an extra day to reload the atmosphere with warm and more humid air and with some afternoon heating.  But, alas, neither the vertical profiles of the NAM or the GFS are very exciting for Wednesday either.  I am speculating that is the reason why the severe area for Wednesday is mainly to our east and also relatively small in areal coverage.  When the best dynamics swing through here, they come after midnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.  When the afternoon heating kicks in, those areas of greatest instability and dyanmic forcing is to our east.  This is all just a bunch of machines talking.  What I would expect would be increasing clouds and humidity on Tuesday and it will be mainly dry with perhaps some scattered stuff late Tuesday.  I will suppose that the SPC has a handle on this but will keep in mind that the low will not move quite as fast, thus providing a more elevated risk for rain and t’storms on Wednesday though I have only marginal data to support any real significant severe weather in our area.  In essence, for me I’m not so sure that Wednesday will be so sedate but would not anticipate wide spread death and destruction.  Things will be more clear on Tuesday.  We get much warmer by next weekend.

Elvis Presley’s 1st National TV Appearance Huge, Not On Sullivan June 5, 2010

Elvis Began His Road to Coronation As King of Rock and Roll on the Milton Berle Show June 5 1956

On June 5, 1956 A National TV Audience Got the Full Elvis on the Milton Berle Show

On this Date in History:  I would wager that if someone asked you which TV show was Elvis Presley’s first television appearance, you would answer the Ed Sullivan Show.  That would be wrong.  His first TV appearance was on January 28, 1956 on the little remembered, Stage Show, co-hosted by Jimmy and Tommy Dorsey.  He appeared on the next 3 episodes and a total of 6 appearances.  I’m not sure if the show lasted much longer than that but the press really didn’t pay much attention.  His first national TV appearance was on April 3, 1956 on the Milton Berle Show.   Berle remembered that there were many stars on that night including Hugh Jarrett, Esther Williams, Buddy Rich and Harry James.  Milton Berle also mentioned Buddy Hackett but the rundown of those who appeared does not list Hackett.  In any event, Elvis was an unknown young performer.  Elvis’s agent, Colonel Parker (see book about Parker and Presley) had called Berle and asked him to give Elvis an audition.  Berle did and was impressed enough to book Elvis on the show.  Elvis performed “Shake Rattle and Roll,” “Heartbreak Hotel” and “Blue Suede Shoes.”  Of the three, Elvis wrote “Heartbreak Hotel.”

Steve Allen Came Up With a Creative Way in Which to Control Presley When He Sang "Hound Dog"

The story gets a little cloudy here because in an interview of Berle, he seems to mix two appearances into one.  Apparently, Elvis was gaining in popularity but the press still generally ignored him.  You see, it was the second appearance of Elvis on the Milton Berle Show on this date in 1956 that launched him into immortal superstardom.  On that show, Elvis performed “Hound Dog.”   For some reason, the press decided to pay attention this time.  Perhaps Elvis had not shown much style in his first appearance but I suppose he was feeling more confident the second time around because he showed off his moves.  He gyrated and shook and the kids went wild, the parents were aghast and the censors were frantic.  The New York Journal-American wrote that the young man’s “primitive physical movement difficult to describe in terms suitable to a family newspaper.”  The San Francisco Chronicle called the performance “In appalling taste.”  The New York  Daily News said that Elvis “gave an exhibition that was suggestive and vulgar, tinged with the kind of animalism that should be confined to dives and bordellos.”  Berle said that 4 days after the show he received 400,000 “pan” letters.  Not “fan mail” but “pan mail.”  People wrote to Berle and said that they would never watch his show again after he showed that disgusting young man.  Berle said that he called Colonel Parker to inform him that he had a star on his hands.  Berle recognized that if that many people took the time to write letters then he had to be on the minds of just about everyone.  All publicity is good publicity.

Sullivan Initially Said No To Elvis

Now, Ed Sullivan had vowed to never book Elvis on his show due to all of his controversial wiggling.   But, there were more shows besides Sullivan.  Three days prior to his groundbreaking second appearance on Milton Berle, Elvis showed up on Your Hit Parade and went on the show again on June 9, 1956.  The first of July found Elvis on the Steve Allen Show where he wore a tuxedo as he performed “Hound Dog” singing to a sad looking basset hound.  Allen had considered pulling him from the show after the backlash of the Berle appearance.  Instead, he took a comic approach and put Elvis in the tuxedo with the dog in an effort to control him.  Elvis went along with it.   An appearance with Jack Benny followed that.  Sullivan had turned down an offer to pay $5000 to put Elvis on his show but after Allen with Elvis destroyed Sullivan without Elvis in the ratings, old Ed promptly changed his mind.  The show was called originally called “Toast of the Town” and the guest host on September 9, 1956 was Charles Laughton of Captain Bligh fame from Mutiny on the Bounty.  Also on the show was the same Hugh Jarrett who was booked on the Milton Berle show on which Elvis made his national debut.   Sullivan wasn’t in the New York theatre as he was recovering from injuries suffered in an automobile accident so Laughton filled in.  Elvis wasn’t in the theatre either.  He was in Hollywood shooting his first movie.  So, Laughton tossed to the guest by saying “away to Hollywood to meet Elvis Presley.”  Elvis performed from a studio there.  Sullivan was happy because his show that night got boffo ratings and he must have also been relieved.  His delay resulted in Sullivan signing Elvis for 3 appearances for $50,000 which was an unheard of some in those days. 

I Think Charles Laughton in 1935 Made a Better Bligh Than the Real Bligh

By not having Elvis on sooner, Sullivan may have helped himself even though he cost himself money.  Other shows built his popularity so, by the time he made it to the biggest show on TV, the Sullivan Show, people watched in record numbers.  Myths get spread so much that often that the myth becomes the truth.  As previously mentioned, many people probably remember the Sullivan appearance as Elvis’s national TV debut.  They also probably recall that the censors on Sullivan’s show required that all shots of his performances would be from the waste up.    Well, on that first Sullivan appearance, his first song was “Don’t be Cruel” and the cameras did in fact stay from the waste up, showing The King in a very loud plaid jacket.  But the jacket was not the only thing that screamed out.  Women in the audience were screaming at something Elvis did beyond the camera range.  He then performed “Love Me Tender” which was his new song associated with his first movie of the same title.  But, the cameras gave the television audience the full Elvis for his second segment.  They showed his feet, his hips, his legs…everything wildly moving about as he performed the Little Richard song “Ready Teddy” and a couple of verses of “Hound Dog.”  So, Elvis was not really censored by Ed Sullivan. 

Plenty of Ladies Got to See Elvis Wiggle on the Sullivan Show

The myth was created by the press who noted that tight shots were used whenever he started to dance.  Perhaps it was censorship but more likely it was a director taking different camera shots.  The audience saw plenty of Elvis in action and they certainly heard the women in the audience sqeal every time Elvis grunted, crossed his eyes, moved his tongue or even just stood perfectly still.  Laughton concluded the show by saying, ”Well, what did someone say? Music hath charms to soothe the savage breast?”  On that night, Ed Sullivan’s show was seen by  82.6% of the total television audience in America.  Steve Allen didn’t even try as NBC pre-empted his show with a movie. 

It may have been Parker (left) and Not Sullivan who had the cameras show Elvis from Waist Up for just one song but the public got the "Full Elvis" on other segments. Myth Busted

Now, the last time that Elvis appeared on Sullivan’s show (by that time it was called the Ed Sullivan Show) was on January 6, 1957 and the TV camera’s did indeed only show him from the waste up as he sang the Gospel song,  ”Peace in the Valley.”  Given that these close ups were for a non-rock and roll tune, many historians believe it was Parker’s idea to limit the camera shots as a way of creating publicity and not an order from Sullivan.   Elvis never performed for Sullivan again but it wasn’t because Ed was upset; he was a tightwad.  Colonel Parker had raised the fee for his star to perform on TV to $300,000 with a stipulation that the network had to agree to put him on two additional guest spots as well as a one hour special.  Parker credited the Sullivan appearances as the key to the success of the single and the movie “Love Me Tender.”  And many music and tv historians say that it was the 3 Sullivan appearances by Elvis to gain support from the parents of the kids who already loved  the king as Sullivan somehow bridged a generation gap.  Obviously, Elvis’s movements were tame by today’s standards, or lack thereof, but it was his breakthrough in his performing style that continues to influence rock stars today.

SPC Severe Outlook Saturday June 5, 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  A pretty strong cold front is sagging down from the North.  It will eventually get here but during the afternoon and early evening heating hours the focus of the attention will generally be to our North.  The SPC has put an area from near Gary, IN to Seymour IN in a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms with a 10% risk of tornadoes, a 30% chance for hail and 45% chance of high winds.  The reason for this is that there will be a little jet streak running across the region as the front sags through.  By the time the front gets to Louisville,it will be night and the heating of the day will be on the wane and the jet streak will have moved through.  However, there will be sufficient latent heat to support thunderstorms with the frontal passage.  While the slight risk of the severe weather threat is officially to the North of Louisville, do not be surprised to see some strong storms in our area on a isolated basis. 

Once the front moves through, we will get relief from the heat and humidity with highs on Sunday and Monday in the low 80′s to upper 70′s.  It will warm back up by the middle to late part of next week.  Depending on how pokey this front is, it is possible on Sunday to have some isolated, mainly elevated afternoon storms in the afternoon.

Effective Clean-Up Method For Gulf Available for 20 Yrs Still Ignored June 4, 2010

The Birds Are Crying For Help

Relief Wells Have Been Started But It will take well into July to reach 18,000 Feet

There has been much talk about how to clean up the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.  Yet, so far there there seems to have been more talk than action. There is a potential partial solution and I have no idea why it has not been implemented.   

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal wanted to build sand berms to keep the oil away from coastal regions but he has been denied in most instances. Something about waiting for an environmental impact study.  Meanwhile, the environment is getting impacted.  Relief wells have been started but may not be complete until the end of July.  In the meantime,  there is a proven technology to more effectively remove the oil from the Gulf of Mexico.  It was used 20 years ago but kept a secret.  In the last few weeks, many people  have become aware of it including all of the principals in this ecodrama; those in industry, military, political.  Yet, so far, no one seems to have lifted a finger to make this maxium effort.  There has been no reason given why no one seems to want to act. Okay…I do have one idea about why no one has called on the proven technology but its so cynical I refuse to believe it. In any event,  the lack of action may be changing…about 5 weeks behind schedule. 

Iraq Let the Oil Flow Into the Persian Gulf In 1990

The largest oil spill in world history is generally recognized to be that which resulted from the Persian Gulf War in 1990.  The Iraqis were concerned about a potential amphibious invasion by the United States Marine Corps.  They let loose a strategy of opening the valves at the Sea Island oil terminal so that the oil would foul that water to such an extent that it would limit the American’s ability to conduct amphibious operations.  The Americans reacted by bombing the island facility to stop the flow of oil but there were also a couple of damaged oil tankers and a damaged Kuwaiti oil refinery that added to the pollution.  In most oil spills, it is almost impossible for anyone to give a concrete number relating to amounts of oil lost, yet the media always demands one.  In general, the estimates for the Persian Gulf oil spill run around 11 million barrels.  The Exxon Valdez spill was estimated at 11 million gallons.  So, this was 42 times bigger.  A few weeks ago I reported on the Ixtoc I oil well blowout and it put out something on the order of about half that of the Persian spill. 

Oil Spill Containment Efforts Have Been Creative But Ineffective So Far

In 1993, the New York Times reported that a study sponsored by many nations concluded that the spill produced “little long term damage.”  It said that half the oil evaporated, about a million barrels was recovered and 2 or 3 million barrels washed up on the shore.  But, in 2010, Dr. Jaqueline Michel said that studies indicated that oil remains in the wetland areas of the Persian Gulf and that oil had penetrated deeply into the intertidal sediment.  Hence, the belief is that the area will take decades to recover.  Here’s the funny thing.  While the New York Times was reporting on the study regarding the 1990 Persian Gulf Oil spill, oil was flowing into the Persian Gulf.  When Dr. Michel reported on the long term effects of the Gulf War spill, nothing was said about how it was determined the oil found was indeed from the 1990 spill and not perhaps another large spill.  Perhaps no one asked the question and the New York Times was silent because no one knew about the very large spill in the Persian Gulf in 1993.

Containment Booms Have Limited Effectiveness Especially in Comparison to Efforts Used by Saudis in 1993

The Unknown Oil Spill:  It is very difficult to find answers regarding the spill because the Saudi government kept it quiet and told those working with Saudi Aramco to keep quiet.  That means that Royal Dutch Shell kept it under wraps.  The Exxon Valdez resulted in 11 million gallons of oil into the Alaska waters.  There is no way that anyone could hide that, right?  Well, either the Saudis are a bunch of Houdinis or they paid a lot of people to look the other way because this spill was estimated to have dumped some 800 millon gallons of oil into the Persian Gulf.  Yet, who knew?  Those who did know kept it quiet.  Tiger Woods should have hired the Saudis for public relations because they managed to keep their little disaster out of the press.  However, part of the reason that no one heard about it was that action was taken.

Popular Mechanics Wrote About the "Sea Clean" Technology in 1991 But Politicians and the Oil Industry Turned Their Back After the Glow of the Exxon Valdez Story Faded

The Unknown Supertanker Skimmers:  Saudi Arabia is the largest owner of supertankers in the world.  Apparently, what they did was develop a method in which super tankers act as giant vacuums to draw in millions of gallons of seawater.  Oil is separated from the water.  The water is put back in the ocean and the oil is recovered for production.  In this particular case, apparently about 85% of the oil lost was eventually recovered.  Much of the rest probably evaporated or otherwise broke up.  From an observer, the results would match with those associated with a relatively minor spill and not the gigantic catastrophe that was reality.    To be certain, this was not a quick fix.  According to an article from Esquire, the initial skimming operation took about 6 months and the total clean up effort lasted for several more years.  

Former Shell Honcho John Hofmeister Is Telling Anyone Who Will Listen About Proven Skimming Technology Available Now; Trouble Is No One Is Listening But That May Finally Be Changing

Now, the former CEO of Shell and a former engineer with Saudi Aramco have been try to get media attention regarding the potential clean up method.  They also have tried to get the US Government and BP’s attention of anyone else who will listen.  Esquire reported late in May that President Obama is aware of the methodology because ABC’s Jake Tapper asked him a question regarding the procedure at a recent press conference.  Apparently the response was not comprehensive.   BP is aware of the procedure because the article claims that BP is now actually considering the strategy.  Esquire also says that a leading oilman from Houston, Matthew Simmons, has been out beating the bushes urging someone to utilize the technology currently available.  And, Esquire has made certain that the US Coast Guard is aware of the procedure and supertanker skimming capability because the magazine actually sent a letter to the Coast Guard asking about possible implementation.  Communities along the Alabama Coast inquired about the procedure and first contacted Esquire for details;  not the government, BP or the Coast Guard.  I suppose they figure that if someone else won’t use what is available to protect their coast, the wildlife and many jobs then they will go out and find out how to do it themselves.

Popular Mechanics Illustration of Environmental Battleship that Could Be Cleaning the Gulf Today But Remains on the Drawing Board

Environmental Battleship:  This whole idea even goes back before the 1993 Saudi spill.  After I first reported a month ago on the history of the IXTOC I blowout in the Gulf of Mexico and how it related to the current Deepwater Horizon incident, I received a press release (followed by a second)  from an outfit in South Louisiana.  In my mind, clearly they are trying to use this incident to promote their project.  But, if one is to believe the release, following the Exxon Valdez accident, the government called for new methods to respond to oil catastrophes.    Herman J. Schellstede & Associates, Inc. said in their release that Mr. Schellstede responded with the design of a ship dedicated to the skimming and processing of sea water similar to that of Aramco.  I’m not certain if its quite the same because it’s hard to determine if the supertankers process the water on board whereas Mr. Schellstede says that his “Sea Clean” vessel would process 38,000 gallons of water per minute for on-board treatment.  I think the supertankers can take on more water but they can’t treat the water on board, which is an advantage for the “Sea Clean.”   The release says that in the early 90′s, the South Louisiana company received the proper permits to begin building the ship when suddenly interest waned.  There was no more push from the government and the oil companies apparently felt that it was hard to justify spending tens of millions of dollars for a ship that they may never need.  After all, there have been thousands of oil wells drilled in the Gulf and there have been very few that have blown out.  This boat was not a secret either.  There is a  new Youtube video of the “Sea Clean” as well as an article in a 1991 edition of Popular Mechanics that touted the potential of Mr. Schellestede’s vessel.   Before that, in  November 1989, just months after the March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez accident, the New York Times said in an article that “a huge vessel now on the drawing board could someday serve as what its designers call an environmental battleship, attacking oil spills like the Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska.”  It’s still on the drawing board.

"Hello! Why Not?" Now, Even Larry King Knows About the Supertanker Skimmers But Still Nothing Happens

So, in 1989 the government asked for new methods to react to large offshore oil disasters. An American company in South Louisiana came up with a solution.  The birds chirped.  A big oil disaster in the Persian Gulf was averted in 1993 by using a similar technology but no one knew about it because of a Public Relations effort of the Saudi Arabians.  The Saudis have the largest fleet of supertankers in the world and the US has certainly come to the security of interests of that nation enough times that they could spare a few tankers for awhile.  So, the tankers could be made available.  The technology is proven and available.  We know for certain now that BP knows about it, the US Coast Guard knows about it, the US Government knows about it, the President of the United States knows about it and even Larry King knows about it.  Yet, the birds continue to chirp….those who can chirp as others struggle to lift their oil soaked heads. 

Some Folks Are Getting Help But More Can Be Done

I’m not sure why it can’t be done but it seems an easy plan would be for BP to handle the plugging of the well.  That should be their only focus because its extremely difficult at such bone crushing, frigid depths.   The Coast Guard could be in charge of the clean up and containment and use the influence of the state department to help persuade the Saudis to get those supertankers over here.  The Energy Department can be talking to the folks in South Louisiana about what it would take to build the vessel proposed.  The Justice Department and Congress should stand down for a while.  It used to drive me crazy when, during a difficult TV show, people would start yelling at each other over problems while the show was still  in progress.  That disrupted more of the show.  I would always urge that we get through the show and then start pointing fingers afterward.  So far, the “action” we’ve seen has been hearings, finger pointing and lawsuits, threats of lawsuits and threats of criminal trials with very little “action” concerning fixing the problem and finding the answers later. No one has considered that this was no one’s fault…that there is an inherent danger at drilling at such water depths.  Regardless,  we need to get this thing stopped….and  it won’t be easy…it took 9 months at IXTOC I and that was only a few hundred feet of water, not over 5000 feet.   Lets put 100% of the resources toward plugging the hole then maybe the birds will chirp again.  Hopefully theywill chirp because emergency planning will not just be talked about but followed through with this time.

What If An Astronaut Just Said No? June 3, 2010

Famous and Spectacular Photo of Ed White Taking a Walk

I Love This Movie

On This Date in History:  If you recall the movie The Right Stuff based on Tom Wolfe‘s book of the same name, the original Mercury astronauts are portrayed as tough, independent thinking, test pilots.  As part of the space program, the test pilots were controlled by NASA engineers and administrators by appealing to their duty as military officers as well as their patriotic duty.  In time, however, the astronauts realize that, without them there was no program.  NASA had created heros in the minds of the public and, in doing so, inadvertantly created monsters.  In one scene, the movie shows the astronauts joining together and influencing the design of the spacecraft so it would have a window and also an explosive hatch.  Later, it even suggests that they influenced decisions regarding flight assignments.  I don’t know the exact veracity of the movie but I do know that Tom Wolfe wrote an excellent book and he is well respected for the research he devotes to any given subject.  So, I am certain that there was some truth to the notion that these astronauts were extremely independent.

1st to Walk In Space Leonov Had His Record Smashed By White

Much of the movie takes place in the 1950′s and early 1960′s at the outset of the US manned space program and the beginning of the space race with the Soviet Union.  By 1965, the astronaut corps had expanded and missions had become of a longer duration and the crew size had doubled.  However,  in general, NASA was typically slightly behind the pace set by the Soviets during the early years.  So, when astronauts Ed White and Jim McDivitt completed the Gemini IV mission and recorded 66 orbits of the earth, it was an American duration record but short of the Soviet mark.  More notably, Gemini IV focused on America’s first space walk.  As had been the case with other milestones, when Ed White left the confines of the Gemini IV capsule on this date in 1965, a Soviet had already accomplished the feat.  Cosmonaut Aleksei Leonov was the first person to venture into open space  during the Voskhod II mission on March 18, 1965.  

In Space, which way is up?

But, it was still a big deal and White found it quite exhilerating.  White had floated out of the spacecraft at 3:41 pm EDT dangling from a 30 foot line that not only provided life support and communication, but also was his only tether to the remainder of humanity.  It was scheduled to last but 12 minutes.  This was science.  This was serious.  This was dangerous.  This was a military man serving his country.  This was a situation that requried complete control by mission administrators.  White found out that it was also fun.  For  NASA mission specialiists, it was too much fun for White.    You see, near the end of the window for the walk on top of the world, NASA  controllers told McDivitt, “They want you to get back in now.”  McDivitt, in turn, relayed the instructions of White who was having great fun floating freely while whizzing along at about 17,500 mph.  White told McDivitt, “I’m not coming in…this is fun.” 

Lt. Col. Edward H. White Nov 14, 1930 - Jan 27, 1967

McDivitt then ordered White back into the spacecraft with a paternal, “come in.”  White ignored him.  In fairly short order, NASA informed the astronauts that they had just 4 minutes of light left before they reached Bermuda, which was the boundary of the dark side of the earth.  Like a little kid not wanting to come in for dinner, White remained outside the craft.  So, McDivitt turned to a more pleading approach.  “Come on.  Let’s gt ack in here before it gets dark.”  White simply said, “it’s the saddest moment of my life.”  McDivitt reminded White that he had gotten himself in the dog house.   You see, while mission control personnel had very little control over the astronauts and had little recourse if an individual went rogue, eventually any bad boy had to come home.  McDivitt told White, “Well, you’re going to find that it’s sadder when we have to come down with this thing.”

A Rather Interesting View of White Walking in Space

NASA controllers were beside themselves.  Their space walker was floating about, the hatch was still open and the dark side of the earth in less than a minute.  “Gemini 4! Gemini 4! Get back in…you getting him back in?”  McDivitt answered, “he’s standing in the seat now and his legs are below the instrument panel.”  Naturally, only McDivitt and White knew for certain if White was indeed nearly back in but NASA was nonetheless somewhat relieved when it responded, “Okay. Get him back.  You’re going to have Bermuda in 20 seconds.”  White and McDivitt got back safely, though they did miss the splashdown spot by some 80 km.  Nevertheless, White’s refusal to follow orders not only did not hurt his career much, but instead his hero status was greatly enhanced in the eyes of the public.  You see..White’s walk was scheduled to last about 90 seconds longer than that of Leonov.  White unscheduled extension resulted in a spacewalk of around 21 minutes which more than doubled the duration of Leonov.  White may have been second to walk in space but he had smashed the efforts of the Soviets and America loves a winner.

Perhaps McDivitt Took A Photo of White When He Said, "No"

McDivitt went on to command Apollo 9, which was an important lead-up mission to man’s first walk on the moon with Apollo 11.  He retired from the Air Force and NASA in 1972 as a Brigadier General and after serving as Manager of the Apollo Spacecraft Program and program manger for Apollo 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16.  It is possible that White was in line for even greater glory than his space walk and the achievements of McDivitt.  White was assigned to the first Apollo mission along with astronaut Roger Chaffee and Mercury veteran Gus Grissom.  Today, Ed White’s name can be found as the title of elementary. middle and high schools around the country, though the moniker’s have nothing to do with his space walk.  White’s name is included with Grissom and Chaffee for the sacrfice of their lives in the effort to reach the moon.  In one of those very odd and eery historical instances, Grissom remarked prior to the initiation of the Apollo program,  ”If we die, we want people  to accept it.  We’re in a risky business and we hope that if anything happens to us, it will not delay the program.  The conquest of space is worth the risk of life.”  

American Heroes Forever: Ed White, Gus Grissom, Roger Chaffee

White, Grissom and Chaffee were all killed when a flash fire swept through their Apollo I capsule during a launch pad test on January 27, 1967.  Grissom would have been pleased in that they did not die in vain.  As a direct result of the tragedy, safety flaws on the spacecraft were revealed and a safer design for future astronauts was adopted.  There was a relatively brief delay but not enough to prevent the nation from reaching its goal of putting a man on the moon and returning him safely by the end of the 1960′s.    Roger Chaffee had never flown in space even though he had been part of the space program for 4 years.  He never did go into space but is an American hero.  Grissom had been one of the original astronauts and White had made that very long space walk.  So, for them, both were American heroes twice which is a tough, dangerous trick that requires dedication, honor, integrity and ultimately immortality.  For Ed White, it also required the ability to have some fun.

Thursday Severe Threat

Friday Severe Threat

Weather Bottom Line:  Been under the weather and I’m not too enthused with this but, as I had said several days ago, Thursday is the risk for severe weather around here with a quasi stationary boundary nearby.  I suspect that the focus will probably be south and east of Louisville but I’m not really paying that much attention.  Gusty winds, maybe hail…that would be the biggest threat I would think.  I’d be more cocerned with rain totals in local places as there will probably be locally heavy rain.  The actual cold front will be flopping just to our north so the focus of strong storms will be just to our north.  Weekend should be fine.  Pop up storm at best on Saturday.  Highs mid to upper 80′s.  Humidity will probably a little more tolerable.  I’m done.