1906 San Francisco Quake Day After Curse by Nudist Prophet! April 18, 2010

San Francisco and Bank of America Can Blame and Thank The Nudist Prophet!

St. Francis Hotel May have "survived" 1906 but It Didn't Seem to Be in Too Good of Shape

On This Date in History:  When I was a young stock broker, I had the opportunity to show a limited partnership to my clients.  At the presentation by the principals of the partnership, it was explained that the real estate deal involved several hotels including the St. Francis Hotel in San Francisco.  I annoyed the partners by persistently pressing them on whether or not the partnership had earthquake insurance for the St. Francis, given that it was one of the revenue producing hotels in the deal and San Francisco is prone to earthquakes.  After much pressure from yours truly, they finally fessed up and said that they had none but that there was no worry because the hotel had survived the San Francisco earthquake in 1906.  My boss was not too happy with me.  Of course, a few years later, all payments to investors in the limited partnership were suspended following damage done to the St. Francis hotel following the 1989 ‘World Series” earthquake in San Francisco.  Most people agree that California quakes are the result of shifting of the San Andreas fault of some of it’s tributaries.  But, the real cause of the Great San Francisco earthquake in 1906 may well have been Edmund Franz Creffield, AKA, Joshua II the nudist prophet!

It was Creffield who called himself Joshua II and led the Bride of Christ Church in early Twentieth Century Corvallis, Oregon. He would preach to largely female congregations in someone’s home. He would shutter the windows and then declare “Vile Clothes Be Gone!” Off came the dresses, the corsets…everything.  Then the group would roll around on the floor together. (This really happened!) Joshua was looking for the “second mother of Christ.”  Now, it seems that someone took a photo at the height of one of these meetings with Joshua and the ladies in their birthday suits.   Needless to say, when the husbands of the female participants found out about this chicanery, the gentlemen were none too pleased.  Joshua got tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail. Joshua also got tossed in the slammer for adultery and/or seduction.  He ultimately was released and,  undeterred, he then gathered another group of women….including a 17 year old girl named Esther Mitchell.  This time though, April 17 1906, he put a curse on Corvallis and Portland and Seattle and San Francisco.  Not sure what the other cities did to deserve such retribution but they somehow made the list.

The next day…San Francisco was hit with a devastating earthquake. Kinda helps explain the term “holy roller.” In fear, 50 other women rushed to join Joshua.

Esther Got Revenge on Her Brother

About this time,  Joshua had revealed that he was “told” that 17-year-old Esther Mitchell was to be the chosen ”second mother of Christ.”  In the meantime, Joshua covered all of this bases and remarried his ex-wife, Maude, and went to Seattle.  As fate would have it,  Esther Mitchell had a brother who tracked the group to Seattle where he shot the supposed prophet in the head behind the left ear.  George Mitchell was acquitted of a murder charge.  His sister, the “second mother of Christ”, then proceeded to shoot her brother in the head behind the left ear.  Esther explained the killing of her brother by saying, “He had to die.  He did a terrible thing killing a prophet.”  It was learned that Maude had also planned the killing but she didn’t want to go to trial so she killed herself by taking strychnine.  Esther was found guilty by reason of insanity and was sent to an  insane asylum.  After just 3 years, she was paroled from the Washington State Asylum but died just a few weeks later.

Giannini in 1928 with Wife and Daughter

Now,  Amadeo Peter Giannini isn’t a household name, but maybe he owes a debt of gratitude to the Nudist Prophet.  Or, perhaps Giannini should be remembered and perhaps the company that he founded needs to go back to his philosophy. You see, he didn’t see money as the worlds greatest resource. Instead, he saw people as the greatest commodity on the globe. While it was not his objective, his humble attitude resulted in his founding one of the nation’s most powerful financial institutions.

Amadeo Peter Giannini

He worked in San Francisco for his stepfather in a produce market and by the age of 19, he became a full partner. He invested his money wisely in real estate and at the tender age of 31, he was wealthy enough to retire. But, his version of wealth was different than others as he was able to earn $250 a month from his investments, which was fine by him. Philosphically, he said, “I don’t want to be rich. No man actually owns a fortune; it owns him.” I guess he must have gotten bored though because his retirement lasted all but a year.

1929 Check From Bank of Italy

In 1902 a small bank in the Italian section of the Golden Gate City made him its director. He was interested in banking but he detested the practices, which he felt ignored the common man. So, two years later, he started his own bank and called it the Bank of Italy…even though he was in San Francisco. His investors were small shareholders but the practices that he used would alter banking practices in America…until perhaps the late 20th and early 21st centuries. One thing he did that is still common today was that Giannini solicited business. This was unheard of in 1904. Through advertising and he own personal persuasion he convinced people it was safer to have their funds in his bank than hidden in a shoe box or under their mattress. He put the money back into the community by giving small loans to local individuals with only their wages as collateral. He then thought that banks could better distribute capital so he pioneered branch banking. Then, disaster struck.

Fires Burn after Quake

Street Split By 1906 Quake

On this date in 1906, the city of San Francisco was almost destroyed the aforementtioned massive earthquake and a following fire that burned for several days. You may find photos with this link to the SF museum.  The firestorm only was halted when sections of the city were dynamited to form a fire break. The earthquake was estimated to be 7.8 on the richter scale. Death toll estimates vary but it is generally assumed about 3000 lost their lives. Giannini acted quickly and removed all of the money from his bank and put it in a secret hiding place. The very next day, his bank was the only financial institution in the city to be open for business. He set up shop on a wooden plank and began dispensing loans. By 1907 with rebuilding going crazy, a wave of untempered financial speculation took hold and many banks were left in ruins. (sound familiar?)

The Mint Stands Tall Amidst the Rubble

But, Giannini had speculated that a crash was coming and he had spent his time hoarding gold. He stacked the gold in teller windows so everyone could see it. Customers saw the glittering substance and it gave them confidence that their money was safe with him. By the time he really retired in 1934, his bank was the world’s largest commercial bank with about $5 billion in assets. Yet, the humble Giannini never sold out. He didn’t give himself or a golden parachute. His bank was to serve the public not its officers. When Amadeo Peter Giannini died in 1949, his estate was estimated to be the same as it had in 1904 when he started his own bank.

The bank he started, the Bank of Italy became part of Transamerica in the 1920′s. In 1934, the bank was merged with another financial institution and the new bank was called the Bank of America.

Weather Bottom Line:  We will be in a similar pattern as last week with plenty of sunshine for the next several days with temperatures rising each day as the week progresses.  Cool nights next couple of nights but we will moderate and afternoon highs up toward 80 or so by week’s end.  Next weekend, there could be some excitement.

1st Female Pilot to Cross English Channel Was Not Named Amelia April 15, 2010

The real first lady of flight

 

One Hot Pilot

 On This Date In History:

Perhaps the greatest and most courageous aviators no one has ever heard of got her flying license on August 1, 1911. Harriet Quimby was a single woman working in New York, which at the time was a pretty tough thing to do. Quimby worked for Leslie’s Illustrated Weekly. She was an independent and strong minded woman but wasn’t cast in the role of the Suffragettes. Instead she wrote articles that focused on neglect of children, corrupt politics and over hunting of certain species of animals.  However, she went on to do spectacular things that hardly anyone knows about.  Fortunately, as a writer, she did leave behind the tales of Harriet Quimby adventures in her own words.

Quimby also must have had a thing for machines because in 1906 while covering a race at the Vanderbilt Race Track, she went for a ride in a high speed automobile. So enthralled was she that she purchased her own car. I wonder if she was the only female car owner in 1906 New York. She covered a flying meet in 1910 and decided to take flying lessons.   Quimby met Matilde Moisant and her brother John at the Belmont Park International Aviation Tournament.  John and his brother Alfred ran a flying school so Harriet signed up.  She said ” There is no more risk in an airplane than a high-speed automobile and a lot more fun. Why shouldn’t we have some good American pilots.”   She became the first American woman to get a flying license and the second in the world.   Not only did Harriet get her pilot’s license, but so did her friend Matilde, who became the second American woman to officially become a pilot just 10 days after Harriet.  Matlide went on to establish herself as a female aviation pioneer as she and Harriet had a friendly competition.  Just a month after receiving her license, Moisant defeated both Quimby and French pilot Helene Dutrieu in an altitude competition when she took her 50 hp monoplane up to 1200 feet.  I’ve driven go-karts with a 50 hp engine.  That’s really pretty incredible and the ladies were quite brave. 

Harriet Quimby and Matilde Moisant

In fact, it took quite a bit of bravery to take to the air in the early days of aviation. Perhaps she learned her daring from John Moisant who dazzled the world when he crossed the English channel only  a month after he learned to fly!  Nevertheless, in spite of Harriet’s claim that it was no more dangerous than driving a car,  John Moisant was killed in a flying accident not long after she made his acquaintance.   Then, on April 14, 1912, Matlide landed her plane after a performance and it burst into flames due to a leaky fuel tank.  She was pulled from the wreckage with her clothing on fire, but she survived.   Nevertheless, Harriet was not deterred.   Just two days after her friend nearly burned to death,  on this date in 1912 Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly solo across the English Channel.   Her accomplishment went largely unnoticed because on April 16, 1912, the press was filled with details of the tragic Titanic sinking and her feat was left to the back pages and generally lost to history.  However, as  a journalist, Quimby decided to write the story of how Harriet Quimby flew solo across the English Channel.

A looker

A few months later, she turned her sights on the air speed record. Her plane was a two seat monoplane. When she flew this particular aircraft solo, she used sandbags in the passenger seat in order to maintain balance. For some reason, she took a man on a ride, presumably before she went for the record. The man won the opportunity in a coin flip with his son.   As the plane went on its journey, for unknown reason it pitched forward and the man was tossed to his death.   Harriet maintained control briefly before the plane pitched again and she was tossed to her death at age 37(NYTimes 1912 story/obit). Like the more famous, Amelia Earhart, I think that Harriet was quite the looker. Her flying outfit was a quite handsome purple silk jumpsuit. Earhart gained fame perhaps as much for her disappearance as for her flying feats. While Quimby has been largely forgotten, I have an idea that her death highlighted the need of seatbelts in planes. When you buckle up on your next flight, think of Harriet.

SPC slight risk for April 16 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  After a week of splendid weather, the big day is here.  Yes, it’s my birthday but to highlight it’s importance, I am getting a colonoscopy! That is a sure sign that age is creeping up and that I don’t count birthdays anymore.  Snow White already had my birthday party last week at Burger King.  I think that she’s getting me back for taking her to Golden Corral for Valentine’s Day.  Guys..don’t make fun of Valentine’s Day.  It will go on the “do not forget” list.  But, this evening, it will be interesting to see how my emcee appearance goes tonight for the Justice Racing Stables as they kick off the Derby season.   Hopefully, no one will strike a match.  And I hope that John Nolley has planned for an indoor event because the cold front will be coming through and I suspect it will be less exciting than my visit to the doctor, though the Storm Prediction Center is rattling our cage a bit.

SPC risk for gusty winds biggest threat

That 5% risk for severe weather that they had yesterday they upped to be a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.  They only claim a less than 2% risk for twisters and hail but are watchful for high winds.  As the front comes down, they are noting the amount of sunshine ahead of the boundary and that may increase the lapse rates sufficiently to team with a low level jet of about 50 kts and increasing dew points to produce a line of thunder storms.  We are on the extreme western tip of the risk area but nothing really jumps out at me.  The CAPE forecast is only 500 J/KG and, while  that is sufficient to produce some boomers, I’m not too impressed.  So, I wouldn’t head to the basement just yet.  Nevertheless, it’s out there so keep in mind, if we do get some storms this evening with the front, there may be some winds to contend with in individual storms.  Otherwise, Thunder Over Louisville weekend is upon us and the weather will be pretty good, though cooler than we’ve recently seen.  Highs in the low to mid 60′s.  Fireworks temperatures will be falling through the 50′s and the wind will be out of the North, meaning that if you are on the Louisville side of the river, be prepared for some smoke.

Fate of Titanic May Have Been Sealed Before It Left Port April 15, 2010

RMS Titanic 1912

On This Date in History:  Perhaps the most famous shipwreck in world history is that of the RMS Titanic that sank on this date in 1912.  It’s fame came largely due to the fact that it was the largest and most luxurious ship of its day, considered the most advanced and safest ship of its day and was on its maiden voyage with notable members of society on its passenger list.  It was also the first major disaster in the advanced media age when wireless communication made news of the disaster nearly instantaneous across the world.  Titanic‘s radio opertors sent out the CQD distress call as well as the new code signal of SOS, though the use of SOS by the Titanic was not the  first usage of that code.  Radio reports of the disaster were received by a young radio man for the American Marconi Company named David Sarnoff who went on to become an innovator in mass communications as the head of the Radio Corporation of America (RCA).   Over 1500 souls died that night in the icy waters of the North Atlantic, but it was not the worst ship wreck in terms of loss of life. 

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded.  The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers.  On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2300  former prisoners of war returning home on April 27, 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers. The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current.  Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers.  The fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors and the turbulent river current all contributed to the deaths of some 1700 souls.   Unlike the news of the Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Titanic's Huge Propellers

The RMS Titanic sank after striking an iceberg shortly after lookouts Frederick Fleet and Reginald Lee reported an iceberg directly ahead of the ship at 11:40 pm.  2 hours and 40 minutes later, the 52,000 ton liner slipped below the surface of the water.  So often in life, timing is a key to events.  Had the ship moved through those waters an hour later or an hour earlier, perhaps the iceberg would not have been in it’s location.  As it turns out, the fate of the ship may have been sealed before it ever left Southhampton.

SS City of New York

Titanic Slips by Oceanic and New York

Back in 1888, British shipbuilders had constructed another ocean liner with an eye toward making it one of the largest and fastest liners of the day.  The SS City of New York was a passenger liner of the Inman Line.  It had a capacity of just under 2000 passengers and from August 1892 to May 1893 it held the eastbound Atlantic speed record with an average speed of just over 20 kts.  It was large for its day checking in at 17,240 tons and it and its sister ship, SS City of Paris, were the first express ocean liners to feature twin screws.  In February 1893, the Inman Line was folded into the American Line with the ship becoming American flagged and renamed the SS New York.  The ship was used by the US government during the Spanish American war and returned to transatlantic service in January 1899.

Titanic Cleared New York By Just a Few Feet. Did the Incident Seal Titanic's Fate?

The aging ship was berthed in Southampton next to the steamship Oceanic on April 10, 1912.  There was a coal strike in Southampton and many ships were berthed in the harbor due to delays in the delivery of coal.   The massive Titanic with its enormous propellers passed by the smaller New York and the draft of the Titanic drew the New York away from its dock. The three inch steel mooring lines could not stand the strain and snapped.  Now, a huge ship like the Titanic cannot stop on a dime so it took quick thinking to prevent a collision between the New York and the Titanic.  Captain Edward J. Smith ordered that the port propeller of Titanic be put in reverse to veer the ship safely away while a nearby tugboat managed to capture the New York and steer it to safety.  Reports vary but the ships came within 2 to 4 feet of one another. 

Maybe Titanic Disaster Was Due to Lack of Spy Glass

The incident caused a delay in the departure of the RMS Titanic by about 30 minutes.  Had the ships collided, then Titanic certainly would not have left port on April 10, 1012.  Now, there is little doubt that Captain Smith put Titanic on a speed to make up for the lost time.  However, it has been suggested that White Star Line executive Bruce Ismay, who was on board the Titanic, was pushing Smith to make as much speed as possible.  So, it is reasonable to assume that perhaps, even without the delay, Smith would have been pushing the luxury liner at the same speed that he ultimately used.  If that were the case, then Titanic would have arrived at the location of its demise 30 minutes earlier and perhaps that iceberg would not have been in the path of the Titanic.  Conversely, had not the collision in Southampton been averted, then the Titanic never would have left the port on that day and it is possible it never would have been on a collision course with that iceberg. 

A recent article in the UK Daily Mail suggests that the “Near miss at Southampton could have saved the Titanic.”  However, I”m not a fan of alternative history.  History is about what happened, not what might have happened and no one can say for certain what would have happened. It is plausible that, due to the manner in which the ship was operated and the fact that it was moving through an ice field, it would have struck a different iceberg.  Who knows?  Nevertheless, had the SS New York been held at its moorings or if it had been allowed to strike the RMS Titanic, it is possible that there would have been no story to tell or movies to make.

SPC Just 5% Severe Storm Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  We’re right on schedule forecast wise.  Look for highs again the low 80′s on Thursday.  Probably pretty close to 80 on Friday as a cold front moves through which will increase rain chances with the potential for thunderstorms by Friday afternoon into Friday evening.  The SPC is not too enthused regarding severe chances as the dynamics are just not too exciting.  Thunder Over Louisville weekend still looks good but cooler with highs in the low to mid 60′s.

Abraham Lincolns Final Day; “Now He Belongs To the Ages.” April 14, 2010

145 Years Ago Today, the Course of the Nation Was Changed

Ward Hill Lamon Heard Lincoln Tell of his dream shortly before the President's Assassination

On This Date in History:  Historian Stephen B. Oates wrote in With Malice Toward None: A Life of Abraham Lincoln that one night in the second week of April 1865,  President Lincoln spoke with his wife Mary and long time friend Ward Hill Lamon that he had ghostly dreams.  Lincoln told Mary Todd and Lamon that his most recent dream resulted in his waking and going to his bible where his search led him consistently to passages regarding dreams, supernatural visitations and visions.  When Mary asked what that particular dream was about, Oates describes Lincoln with a sad and serious voice responding:

Lincoln Dreamed of His Own Death in the White House

Lincoln's Dream Came True

“There seemed to be a death-like stillness about me.  Then I heard subdued sobs, as if a number of people were weeping.  I thought I left my bed and wandered downstairs.  There the silence was broken by the same pitiful sobbing, but he mourners were invisible.  I went from room to room; no living person was in sight, but the same mournful sounds of distress met me as I passed along.  It was light in all the rooms; every object was familiar to me; but where were all the people who were grieving as if their hearts would break?  I was puzzled and alarmed.  What could be the meaning of all this?  Determined to find the cause of a state of things so mysterious and shocking, I kept on until I arrived at the East Room, which I entered.  There I met with a sickening surprise.  Before me was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestiments.  Around it were stationed soldiers who were acting as guards; and there was a throng of people, some gazing mournfully upon the corpse, whose face was covered, others weeping pitifully.  ‘Who is dead in the White House?’ I demanded of one of the soldiers.  ‘The President.’ was his answer; ‘he was killed by an assassin!’  Then came a loud burst of grief from the crowd.”

Lincoln Was Chipper On April 14th After What He Thought Was a Good Dream

Mary Todd said the story was “horrid” and wished she had never asked to hear about the dream.  Lamon said that, as Lincoln spoke, he was pale, “grave and gloomy.”  But, when the President awoke on the morning of April 14, 1865 he had slept quite well.  He had no concerns regarding reconstruction and no bad dreams.  Instead, he had a dream that he had frequently had on the eve of good news.  He had the same dream prior to Union victories at Antietan, Gettysburg and Vicksburg.  So, when he awoke from the dream in which he was on a ship moving quickly toward a distant shore, he surmised that the day must be filled with good news.  After all, it was Good Friday.  However, I wonder if he recalled that “Good Friday” gained the moniker because it was the date that commemorates the death of Jesus of Nazareth.

Lincoln Funeral Train in Philadelphia

That Good Friday in Washington D. C. the weather began under sunny and pleasant conditions.  The President and First Lady planned on taking care of some executive business and then attending a performance of Our American Cousin, a comedy that was scheduled for the stage at Ford’s Theatre.  During a cabinet meeting at 11AM, Lincoln asked, Lt. General Ulysses S. Grant if he and his wife Julia would like to accompany the Lincolns to the theatre.  Grant replied to this verbal invitation in the affirmative if they were in town but, if he was able to attend to his duties, that they were hoping to catch a train that night to visit their children who were then in Burlington, New Jersey.  Grant was able to finish his work before the evening train left Washington on the 14th and so he sent word to the President that he and his wife would not be able to attend. Mrs. Lincoln was quite fond of Miss Clara Harris and so, after several people besides the Grants had declined the invitation, Major Henry Rathbone and his fiancee, Miss Harris, accepted the invitation.  It’s not clear whether or not assassin John Wilkes Booth knew that Grant was not in the box with Lincoln but, when he shot the President in the head, he also stabbed Major Rathbone in the head and neck.  The young major apparently had a bright political future but his life resulted in a tragic scenario.  Rathbone went on to marry Harris and they had 3 children.  But, his mental health had deteriorated with speculation being he never overcame the trauma of the assassination.  Rathbone murdered his wife in 1883 and tried to kill himself but doctors saved his life.  He lived out the rest of his life in an insane asylum.  

Lincoln Funeral Train Route To Springfield, IL

The final letter known to have been written by Abraham Lincoln was a reply to James H. Van Allen, who had written Lincoln to guard against assassination.  The president assured Van Allen, “I intend to adopt the advice of my friends and use due precaution…I thaink you for the assurance you give me that I shall be supported by conservative men like yourself, in the efforts I may make to restore the Union, so as to make it, to use your language, a Union of hearts and hands as well as states.  Yours truly, A. Lincoln.”    Just prior to his leaving the White House for Ford’s Theatre, Lincoln concluded a meeting he had with George Ashmun, who had come seeking a political appointment.  The final words written by Abraham Lincoln was on a pass of admission for Mr. Ashmun that read, “Allow Mr. Asmum and friend to come in at 9 AM to-morrow.  A. Lincoln.”  By 9AM April 15, 1865, Abraham Lincoln was dead.

Derringer Used By Booth Confirmed As Such in 20th Century by FBI

The President of the United States sat with his wife, Major Rathbone and Clara Harris in a special box at Ford’s Theatre watching the popular comedy Our American Cousin. The presidential party had but one body guard.  John Frederick Parker was assigned to guard the door.  He was there when the president arrived around 9PM but he disappeared following the intermission.  It is thought that he joined some other men in the saloon and then found a seat to see the play.  Incredibly, Lincoln’s missing body guard remained on the security staff after the events at Ford’s Theatre.  On this date in 1865, John Wilkes Booth , at about 10:15 PM, fired a single shot .41 caliber derringer into the back of the head President Abraham Lincoln.  Booth escaped by leaping to the stage but caught a spur in the bunting and he broke his leg when he hit the stage.  It is said that he shouted out, “Sic Semprer Tyrannus” which means “death to tyrants” in Latin.  The President was taken across the street to 453 Tenth Street at the home of William Petersen.  They placed him in the bed of a room rented by boarder William Clark.  Throughout the night, family and friends gathered around the President as he breathed laboriously but never regained consciousness.  At 7:22 AM, Abraham Lincoln breathed his last and Secretary of War Edwin M. Stanton said, “Now he belongs to the ages.”

Abraham Lincoln Shot 10:15 PM April 14, 1865; Died 7:22 AM April 15, 1865-He Belongs To the Ages

Ulysses S. Grant learned of the assassination in Philadelphia.  At the time, he was told that Secretary of State William H. Seward had also been murdered and it was likely Vice-President Andrew Johnson was also dead.  Naturally, with the potential decaptitation of the government, the commander of the Union Army was asked to return to Washington immediately.  Grant wrote in The Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant that it was impossible for him to describe his feelings.  He said of Lincoln, “I knew his goodness of heart, his generosity, his yielding disposition, his desire to have everybody happy, and above all his desire to see all the people of the United States enter again upon the full priviliges of citizenship with equality among all.”    Since he was near his final destination, he accompanied his wife to Burlington and then immediately took a special train back to the nation’s capital.  He said upon his return he noticed the stark contrast of the crowds in Washington that had been so joyous when he left had “turned to grief.”  Grant speculated that the South would have been saved much hardship had Lincoln lived and that  “Mr. Lincoln’s assassination was particularly unfortunate for the entire nation.”

Booth Wanted Poster

Historian William J. Cooper, Jr says in Jefferson Davis, American that Confederate President Jefferson Davis, like Grant,  felt great regret upon hearing of the death of President Lincoln.  Davis felt that the South would have been dealt with much more leniently and expected no special considerations for himself or his Confederate colleagues from the new Democrat President Andrew Johnson.  Davis was right as the Johnson administration accused Davis as complicity in planning Lincoln’s assassination.  He issued a proclamation calling for the arrest of Davis and a reward of $100,000 in gold.  Later, during the trial of Booth’s co-conspirators, it was determined that no evidence existed to suggest any involvement by Davis or other high ranking Confederate officials.  The conclusion reached was the death of Abraham Lincoln was planned and executed by a small group of people led by John Wilkes Booth.  Booth had been a famous actor, well known across the nation. He  thought that he would be thought of as a hero.  Instead, his actions have placed him at the top of the list of American villains with whom no one wishes to acknoeledge any family ties or association.

Weather Bottom Line:  Weather still looks on line.  Warm and nice through the rest of the week. High pressure moves off to the east and a little cold front comes through late Friday bringing perhaps some showers or even a t’storm.  Thunder Over Louisville Weekend looks good still with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 60′s.

The Explosion That Brought Failure, Success and Fame April 13, 2010

The Result of the Explosion that Forced The World to Remember Apollo 13

President Kennedy Challenges Nation Before Congress May 25, 1961

On This Date in History:  The manned space program at NASA currently has an uncertain future as the Space Shuttle program winds down.  In sharp contrast, in the 1960′s the United States made manned space missions a national goal.  Just a few weeks after Alan B. Shepard, Jr.  became the first American in space, President Kennedy on May 25, 1961 set the bar high by saying that the United States would put a man on the moon by the end of the decade.   When I was a kid, I couldn’t get enough of the space program.  I sometimes wish that I had followed through on my boyhood dream of being an astronaut when I grew up.  In my college years, I won many a bar bet on any trivia question relating to space exploration.  When Neil A. Armstrong and Edwin E. (Buzz)  Aldrin, Jr.  set foot on the moon on July 20, 1969 the Guinness Book of World Records says that about a third of the global population watched in television.  That was Apollo 11 and Apollo 12 followed and by the time Apollo 13 lifted off on April 11, 1970 the American people, along with the rest of the world, seemed to give a collective yawn.

Picture Perfect Liftoff April 11, 1970

No one really noticed when the time of the launch on that day took place at 13:13 NASA time, or 1:13 pm CST.  More critically, no one at NASA had any concern over oxygen tank #2 in the service module.  According to NASA, “The No. 2 oxygen tank, serial number 10024X-TA0009 had been previously installed in the service module of Apollo 10, but was removed for modification (and was damaged in the process of removal). The tank was fixed, tested at the factory, installed in the Apollo 13 service module. and tested again during the Countdown Demonstration Test (CDT) at the Kennedy Space Center.beginning March 16, 1970. The tanks normally are emptied to about half full, and No. 1 behaved all right. But No. 2 dropped to only 92 percent of capacity. Gaseous oxygen at 80 psi was applied through the vent line to expel the liquid oxygen, but to no avail. An interim discrepancy report was written, and on March 27, two weeks before launch, detanking operations were resumed. No. 1 again emptied normally, but No. 2 did not. After a conference with contractor and NASA personnel, the test director decided to “boil off” the remaining oxygen in No. 2 by using the electrical heater within the tank. The technique worked, but it took eight hours of 65-volt DC power from the ground-support equipment to dissipate the oxygen. Due to an oversight in replacing an underrated component during a design modification, this turned out to severely damage the internal heating elements of the tank.”

"Houston, We've Had a Problem"

For years the main television networks in America had cut into regular programming to show broadcasts from space.  But, less than a year after Armstrong and Aldrin had put their footprints on the moon, network executives had determined that the public would rather watch their favorite tv show than watch the astronauts.  So, when the Apollo 13 crew broadcast live a few minutes short of 55 hours into their mission, no one saw the 49 minute broadcast from space which concluded with flight crew leader James A. Lovell, Jr say goodnight.  Within 15 minutes the networks scrambled to break into the programming as suddenly they thought the public would be interested. On this date in 1970,  nine minutes after Lovell bid farewell, that oxygen tank number 2 blew up and that caused oxygen tank number 1 to fail.  The goodship and crew was in peril as they were some 200,000 miles from earth.  Lovell called home, giving the infamous understatement of the century, “Houston, we’ve had a problem.”  

 Jerry Woodfill makes the case of Divine intervention regarding the timing of the explosion.   He was mission Warning System Engineer and suggests that the time of the explosion was about the only time it could have happened and still gave the opportunity to spare the crew.  Now that is an interesting take on the incident that deserves some consideration.  Perhaps worthy of less examination are what might be regarded as those interesting coincidences of history.  Over time people have made numerous assocations of the third Apollo mission to put men on the moon with the number 13, though some are a stretch.   It departed on April 11, 1970 at 1:13 pm Houston time.   Never mind they launched on east coast time.   Anyway, 1:13 pm is 13:13 in 24 hour clock time. April 11, 1970 can also be written as 4/11/70. Four plus One plus One plus Seven plus Zero equals 13.   Or you can say 4+11+70 = 85 and 8+5 =13. Their last television broadcast was on April 13. They entered the moon’s gravitational field on April 13 and were scheduled to land on the moon on April 13. The failure of the number 2 oxygen tank occurred on Apirl 13th at 3:08:53.555 UTC which in the eastern time zone would be 9:08:53:555. 9+8+53+555=625 and 6+2+5 =13.   If the explosion that caused the damage had occured on earth, it was supposedly estimated to cost $13 million to repair the damage.  Seems like someone had a lot of time on their hands to have discovered all of this.

Splashdown Was Welcome Sight to the World and Mrs. Staple

If you saw the Apollo 13 movie, then you know that the crew made it home safely.  Back in those days, it was unusual  to have a TV set in the classroom but they wheeled one in to ours.  I remember Mrs. Staple being all emotional when we saw the Command Module floating to the sea under the 3 large parachutes.  Lunar Module Pilot Fred Haise was assigned to be the Lunar Module Pilot for Apollo 18 but it was cancelled along with two other missions, leaving Apollo 17 as the last manned moon mission.  Command Module pilot  (John) Jack Swigert went on to be elected to Congress but died of cancer before he could take his seat.  Jim Lovell became one of America’s most experienced astronauts having logged over 715 hours in space during the Gemini and Apollo programs.  Lovell said in a 2009 published article that funding the space program would be a great part of the stimulus:  ”One part of the stimulus could be the space program,” he said.  “First of all it’s a creative program, it creates taxes individual and corporate taxes, all the money is spent here on Earth, not one cent up there in space.  It brings technology that spills over to the private sector.  That’s what happened all through Gemini and Apollo and the private sector now is affected by computer technology and electronic components that were speeded up by our being in space, and that could continue.”

Haise, Swigert and Lovell After Returning from Successful Failure made them more famous than if it ran smoothly

Now, Lovell is certainly qualified and worthwhile to get his opinion on all things space related.  But, the flight experience of John Young eclipses even that of Lovell.   And, of all the moon missions, aside from Apollo 11, no one remembers anything about Apollo 12-17 except 13.  Why? Because it was the successful failure.  It was dramatic.  It’s as if the 5 missions that put 10 additional men on the moon did not matter to the public.  Maybe the TV executives were right; the public had lost interest.  And with the cutbacks at NASA today, it would seem that the government is losing interest as well; that is a mistake.

Weather Bottom Line:  High pressure will drift to the east and temperatures will begin to warm slowly.  Friday evening a little front will come through that will bring a chance of rain or maybe some t’storms but nothing too earth shattering.  That will leave us with a great Thunder Over Louisville weekend though temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60′s, which is closer to where they are supposed to be this time of year anyway.

Arctic Sea Ice Shows Extensive Growth in March 2010 April 6, 2010

NSIDC March 2010 Sea Ice Extent Near 1979-2000 Average-Challenge to Conventional Wisdom?

Arctic Ice Continued Growth in March 2010

Global temperatures this winter on average were up for 2009-2010 but the March Arctic Ice Growth was perhaps unprecedented and much of Northern Asia, Northern Europe and parts of the United States had exceedingly harsh winters while Canada and Greenland were exceedingly warm.    In February, the North Pole Arctic Ice extent appeared to have continued a trend of slow growth from the 2006 lowest recorded maximum ice extent.  Back in 2004, there were several reports concerning undersea volcanic activity that could account for warming Arctic ocean temperatures, but these reports were not widely brought to the public view by the media.   Nevertheless, since the low maximum in March 2006 which followed the lowest Arctic Ice Extent minimum ever recorded in 2005.  Then in 2007, a new record low minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent was observed.   This led to trumpeting in the media that 2008 could result in an ice free Arctic.   If I recall, when I reviewed these media reports, I found that the headline did not match the rhetoric.  A few scientists had said that there was a 1 in 4 chance of that happening, which is hardly a prediction that it would occur.   Not only did that headline prove to be false, but the 2008 Arctic Sea Ice minimum was greater than the previous year.  I noted that, instead of saying that it had grown, the headline from the National Snow and Ice Data Center was that it was the “second lowest” of all time.  The headline was true but they chose the negative presentation over the positive depiction which may speak volumes.  In my mind, headlines should be absent of adjectives that may create bias perceptions one way or the other.

March 2010 3rd Consecutive March To Buck the Long Term Trend Line

Since those days of gloom and doom, the reports have consistently come forth with the reference point always being the lowest.  I”m not sure if I have ever seen a sentence that simply says the ice is growing.  In March 2010, the NSIDC reported that the Arctic Ice Extent in February “continued to track below average” and near those dismal levels of 2007.  But, the numbers were slightly higher and at the end of the month, there was a slight rise that was not noted in the text.  Later, we find that the February Arctic Ice Extent was the “fourth lowest February extent” which means it was higher than 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was lower than 2008 and 2009.   As it turns out, something happened.  As the month of March rolled on,  that little rise at the end of February that was seemingly dismissed continued on through March such that the March ice extent almost reached the 1979-2000 average that is used as a  baseline.  I do not recall the ice extent of any month coming close to that level in recent memory.  I suppose qualitative adjectives only apply for negative news because the April 6, 2010 NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent report used a more balanced headline than it had in previous reports of low ice.    Instead it simply says, “Cold snap causes late-season spurt growth.”  The text of the report does not point out but, this is the 3rd consecutive March to be well above the long term trend line.  This should bring good news of cheer, I would think.  Just 2 years ago, the media was writing about Santa Claus floating away and now we see a huge growth in the ice extent and the latest date of the maximum extent since monitoring began. 

Global Temperature Anomalies Dec-Feb 2010

Nevertheless, I find very little of a positive nature in the report and I think that is the correct approach.  It is good to be cautious in a humble silent admission that we do not have a full understanding of how the earth’s climate operates.  Just report the facts.  But, in the past, there has been a decided negative tilt.  Even in this report, there is talk of how the long term trend is still down and that the overall temperatures were still above average for the Arctic were above average, but it does note that the temperatures in Northern Europe and Siberia were below average.  It probably would have been more accurate to say they were “well below average,” yet again, they seem to pick and choose when to use qualifying adjectives.  If you look at the seasonal temperature map to the right, you notice that all of Siberia was at least 5 degrees C below average and that the rest of Northern Europe was between 3-5 degrees C below average.  That represents an enormous land mass.  Now, Canada was some 3-4 degrees warmer but much of the United States was 2-4 degrees colder.  Air temperatures over the ocean were generally warmer than average but not to the extent of the land anomalies.  For some reason, we had a long wave pattern that gave persistent cold to large land areas in the Northern hemisphere with a somewhat smaller land area covered by warmer temperatures.  Overall, the global temperatures were warmer. If you look at the map, you notice that almost the entire Southern Hemisphere was warmer during the peiriod, which is largely ocean areas.  The exception is the oceans surrounding Antarctica.  What’s up with that?

Is it possible that Undersea Volcanoes can affect the climate through warming ocean temperatures or are they insignficant?

And that last question is the real truth because no one knows.  Yes, the long term trend of Arctic Ice extent is negative but there seems to be a trend over the past 3-4 years of growth that bucks the trend.  This rapid expansion of ice in March did not fit the storyline except that it was the third consecutive year that the March Ice Extent was well above the long term trend line.  And what’s up with the land masses being so cold and the air over the oceans not playing along?  Just a coincidence or is there something at play?  And what about the undersea volcanoes?  Do they play any role at all or are they just red herrings?  And why was the Southern Hemisphere so warm this summer except for the areas around the South Pole?  No one wants to address the fact that the Antarctic did not want to go along with the warming script when the global temperature is taken for the time frame.  I know that I will be given a label for raising any questions which always puts up a red flag to me when legitimate questions are not seriously since they don’t fit a perconceived notion. 

Unfortunately, Mankind Often Takes the Wrong View Regarding Humility

I think that the proper position to take here is not one way or another. It is wrong for people to say that there is no climate change.  Most evidence suggests that there is.  It is not clear if the change though is anthropogenic or natural so it is equally as wrong to pretend like we have all of the answers.  Throughout history, man seems to learn lessons.  After the devastating 30 years war in Europe, mankind seemed to at least temporarily find that diplomacy was a far better way to settle disputes than armed conflict.  Obviously, that lesson has been lost.  But one lesson that man does not seem to learn is humility; a recognition that he currently has limited ability to reach conclusions about anything concerning the wonders of his own planet.  Constantly, what is thought to be fact is tossed on the ash heep of history when something comes along to confound that supposed fact.  Yet, we continue to behave as if we have all of the answers and persecute those who suggest otherwise.

SPC Tuesday Categorical Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

Weather Bottom Line:  After pontificating about the need for humility, I follow up with a forecast. Nice timing.  But, duty calls.  The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center appears to be taking the more cautious position that I advocated yesterday regarding severe weather prospects in our area.  The slight risk area was expanded on Tuesday both north and south as well as farther east to the extent that it now encompasses the Louisville Metro Area.  This allows for the potential for storms that should develop to our west to hold together in the evening hours and move into our region.  We had temperatures in the mid to upper 80′s on Tuesday…but there is one fly in the ointment..that is the dewpoints.  

Tuesday SPC Severe Weather Probability for Wednesday

Tuesday afternoon we were only in the mid 40′s regarding dewpoints and we’ll have to do better than that to support some good storms around here.   Surface Dewpoints Tuesday afternoon were over 60 from Southwestern Illinois down through the Bootheel of Missouri and and down south from there.  I would speculate that we will probably see an increase in our moisture content such that it will be marginally sufficient to suppor t’storms and possibly strong storms.  Bottom Line is that Wednesday afternoon and evening will be something to keep an eye on around  here.  Not a slam dunk and perhaps not even likely, but there will be a possibility of some action..most likely if we did it would be gusty winds and small hail.  We get some CAPE in here late in the day and some sheer and Helicity…enough for conern but not enough to go bananas over either.

The Odd End to the Amazing Howard Hughes April 5, 2010

Time Magazine April 1976

The Dashing Hughes

On This Date in History: If you saw the movie The Aviator starring Leonardo DiCaprio as Howard Hughes, you may recall a scene in which Hughes is testifying before a Senate committee and the charge is brought that Hughes regularly used funds to entertain influential people in the military industrial complex to help win contracts. Hughes acknowledges the charges in a matter-of-fact manner, saying that is just the way the aviation business is done and that everyone spends money on key people, not as bribes, but as a way to influence their decisions. I’ve never read the transcripts of the actual hearings so I don’t know if that part of the script was just written to indicate the true situation. But, on August 3, 1947, the New York Times broke the story, though its much more interesting.

It is more interesting because the NYTimes goes to great lengths to describe how Hughes is charged with spending over $5000 on the son of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Elliott Roosevelt, who was the guy who could make or break military contracts with individual companies. In the story, it’s not Hughes who fesses up, but instead one of his associates who, just a easily as Hughes was portrayed in the movie, admits that they did and do regularly throw parties and entertain people like Fred Roosevelt. In fact he said Elliott was just “one of 1000″ that he entertained. The Times goes on to say that there was more…that Hughes Aircraft provided women to government officials! What is intersting is that no one really gets mad at the government folks accepting the gratuities. I mean, Howard Hughes could invite FDR’s son all he wants but no one forces him to go. But, that never comes up.

The Giant Plane Made of Wood Flew Nov 3, 1947

Spruce Goose Dwarfed Any Other Aircraft for Decades

Howard Hughes defied all probability. He had contracted with the U.S. Government to produce a flying boat that could ferry 750 combat troops or two 30 ton tanks across the Atlantic during World War II. Officially called the H-4 Hercules, the plane fell seemingly hopelessly behind construction schedule and well over budget. The war ended before delivery and the government cancelled the order.  But Hughes was convinced his vision could be transformed to civilian use and revolutionize the airline and air cargo industry. He completed the plane with his own money. Aluminum and other metals were short during the war so he made the plane out of wood.  Not long after his famous Senate hearings in early November 1947, Hughes flew the flying boat near Long Beach in California, confounding critics who said such a huge machine could never fly. It never flew again as it was obsolete before it ever flew and after that Hughes was rarely seen in public for the rest of his life.

The Dashing Aviator Howard Hughes

To this day, it still holds the record for aircraft with the broadest wingspan at 319 feet….more than a football field. It’s also the tallest plane ever built at over 79 feet, or about a 7 story building. It is the worlds largest flying boat and, of course, the record that will probably never be equaled; the largest plane ever built from wood. Many think of the thing as a lark but it is another in a long list of examples of Hughes genius for vision. Hughes exploits proved it was possible for enormous aircraft to fly and thus did indeed revolutionize flight design. Even though by weight and length other modern planes have been deemed the largest planes ever built, the “Spruce Goose,” as it was called by Hughes detractors, stands alone was one of the most daring an innovative steps in the history of flight.

Hughes at the Helm of the Hercules

Hughes achieved many great things and his effort shows what can happen when determination, courage and self-confidence come together with the means to render moot the opinions of the experts.  Hughes’ Spruce Goose exhibition (video) was perhaps the crowning achievement in a remarkable life. We see him as the richest man in the world of his time but in reality, he was an innovator in aircraft and satellite technology. Many of our conveniences we take for granted are directly linked to Howard Hughes. Many of our missile defense systems had their genesis from Howard Hughes.  He set air speed records, furthered aviation development and helped advance satellite technology.  Though not as important, in my view, he was also somewhat of a pioneer in filmaking. 

Hughes Testifying

Now, Hughes died on this date in 1976 amidst mysterious circumstances. He was said to have become exceedingly excentric and developed phobias to about everything, including germs. Some speculate that he was the money man behind Watergate and that Richard Nixon never would have been forced to resign had not Hughes been secretly funding White House operations. Seems, in the early 1970′s, the then richest man in the world was found in England flying around naked, which was apparently not unusual. Late in his secret life, he surrounded himself by Mormons and doctors, yet in death the only way he could be identified was through fingerprints. He was a genius on many levels, but his later life was clouded with his erratic behaviour. There are those who say that Hughes was allowed to die by his handlers who were more interested in making money for themselves than caring for Hughes, who was reportedly around 90 lbs, with long stringy hair, a beard to his waist and very long fingernails when he died on a plane over the Gulf of Mexico enroute to Houston from Acapulco. There are those who say he really died in Acapulco and the story was simply a fabrication to add to his legacy. Then, of course, there were the years sifting through all of the wills that appeared following his death.

Another Hughes?

Now, does that sound familiar? Who else can you think of that gained great fame and fortune as a youth? Who else was dubbed a genius for the innovation that he brought to his field? Who else became extremely eccentric and mysterious later in his life? Who else died of mysterious circumstances leaving a vast estate? How about Michael Jackson. And now, like Hughes, there are charges, criminal investigation and speculation that his death was not as it seemed.  But, in the case of Hughes, when it all was settled, Hughes fortune went to fund the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. It is a non-profit organization that is one of the largest philanthropies in the United States having spent $730 million in research and dispersed over $100 million in grants in 2009.

SPC slight risk area just West of Louisville due to expectation of system coming through Ohio Valley late Wednesday night

Weather Bottom Line:  T’storms possible with a warm front passing on Monday afternoon should be relatively benign but they may be elevated such that a few hail reports won’t be out of the question.  Tuesday look for exceedingly warm conditions with highs in the mid 80′s.  I told you that I was suspicious of this next cold front for Wednesday.  The SPC has been pooh-poohing it but now has come around, though the timing of us may make it a moot point.  It’s getting delayed a bit…the cold front that is.  So, by the time the storms get here it should be late Wednesday night and without the sun, they will lose a key ingredient. However, I wouldn’t be completely sold that it’s a dud.  If it speeds up a bit and we’re talking about before midnight, then I would think that we’d have enough latent heat with a warm and relatively humid Wednesday afternoon to perhaps allow for any strong storms to the west or southwest to hang together sufficiently to cause some racket.  Possible? Yeah…but the data says thats not probable.  Nevertheless, its not unheard of for the computers to be off on their story by  a few hours so its worth watching for.  After that, we should get temperatures back to seasonal levels..but not cold. I think I’m going to go ahead and plant my sunflowers.  I’m not too concerned about freezes anymore.  That’s like me washing my car.  That’s a sure sign of rain and if I plant my sunflowers…that will probably result in one more overnight freeze.  So, if it happens, it’s my fault.

Easter Sunday 42 Years Since Death of MLK April 4, 2010

If you don't know what happened on April 4, 1968, you should

MLK in Montgomery, AL 1955

On this date in history:  On January 15, 1929 Michael Luther King, Jr was born in Atlanta, Georgia to Michael L. King, Sr and Alberta Williams King.  King, the elder following in the footsteps of his father, was the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.  I have read numerous sources that have all sorts of claims as to how his name was changed and why.  But apparently when he was young, both father and son changed their names and it doesn’t really matter how and why.  Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.  became the youngest recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize at age 35.  But, even that doesn’t really live up to the billing of the man.  Dr. King has now been dead longer than he was alive.  On this date in history, he was taken from the world, but he lives in the words and ideals that he set forth. 

King on the Mall in Washington: "I Have a Dream"

The text of the famous “I have a Dream” speech is sometimes quoted but probably never fully read.  While many have tried to live up to those ideals, more often than not collectively and individually we often have fallen short.  It should be noted that 42 years to the day after that terrible day in Memphis, Tennessee Christians around the world mark the day of the rising of the man about whom Dr. King preached.  The ideals of Jesus of Nazareth are something that believers and non-believers alike strive to acheive.  Both King and Jesus spoke of love of fellow man, humility and sacrificing of oneself to the service of others.  The night before Dr. King was killed, he made a speech in which he said in what is known as the “I’ve Been to the Mountaintop” speech, he said,  “We’ve got some difficult days ahead. But it doesn’t matter with me now. Because I’ve been to the mountaintop. And I don’t mind. Like anybody, I would like to live a long life. Longevity has its place. But I’m not concerned about that now. I just want to do God’s will. And He’s allowed me to go up to the mountain. And I’ve looked over. And I’ve seen the promised land. I may not get there with you. But I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the promised land.”   It is so eery because he was dead less than 24 hours later. 

Lincoln Supposedly Dreamed of His Own Death in the White House

It is said that, toward the end of the Civil war, Abraham Lincoln  dreamed of his own death.   He saw a funeral at the White House and he asked who had died and was told, “the President” and in the coffin he saw himself.  Jesus of Nazareth knew his death was imminent but faced it anyway.   King’s words echoed the tale of Moses who did not reach the promised land with the people whom he led for 40 years through the wilderness. Lincoln did not live to see the world after his leadership through the Civil War.  King did not live to see the world after his leadership through the Civil Rights movement.  Yet, all are remembered and their legacy lives  with them.  Jesus of Nazareth is called on today among the living, not as a legacy.  Historians Dennis Sherman and Joyce Salisbury say that “the most influential religious transformation in the ancient West came with the life of Jesus.”   He lived 2000 years ago and only preached about 3 years, yet his influence shaped the world. 

Modern Forensics Speculate This is What Jesus Looked Like

If you study the historiography of Abraham Lincoln you will find that the “father Abraham” we know really only existed for the last 9 years of his life.  We know of the resolute, wise man whose words resonate in American history and not the one whose words brought women to tears and men to challenge him to a duel on at least two occasions.  We know of Martin Luther King, Jr from his 1955 Montgomery Bus boycott to the last public words uttered just before his death just 13 years later.  Keep your dreams alive.  Don’t despair and give up hope.  None of these men gave up and each perservered in difficult circumstance.  None chose the easy path.   All  three promised greater things to come.  While it is disputed by many, I believe that there is evidence to support that in his later years, Lincoln tried to follow the lead of Jesus.  Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. certainly tried to do the same.   Perhaps if everyone truly made a consistent attempt to follow suit and recognize the even the shortest amount of time in our life can produce remarkable change and inspiration, then maybe the ideals of Dr. King may no longer be just a dream.

Weather Bottom Line:  Hope you enjoy the great Easter weather.  Cool start warm afternoon.  As mentioned yesterday…front comes back as a warm front so we’ll push back to the upper 70′s on Monday but rain is likely and t’storms possible on Monday.  Tuesday looks warm with sun and highs in the mid 80′s.  Then comes Wednesday.  Nothing really jumps out at me right now regarding some mischief but it’s worth looking at and we’ll take a closer look on Monday and Tuesday.

Tornado Super Outbreak of 1974-Terror From the Sky April 3, 2010

Tornadoes Are a Global Phenomena But Happen Most Often in the USA...These are From Albania!

Map of All the Tornadoes on April 4, 1974

Car Around Tree in Northfield

Xenia Ohio...One of the Most Destructive

On This Date in History: Any Louisvillian who was here on this date in 1974 does not need to hear anything more. They don’t need to see raw video from April 3, 1974 to remind them what happened on that day in history.  That is true for much of the Ohio Valley. The “Super Outbreak” of tornadoes of April 3-4 1974 was the greatest such event in recorded history.  In less than 18 hours 330 people were killed and some 900 square miles in 13 states suffered tornado damage. Some sources say that at one time during the event, 15 tornadoes were on the ground at once. Given the size of the US, that doesnt seem too remarkable to me. I’ve seen photos of 3 tornadoes in one area of one Texas county simultaneously. What is remarkable is that of the 148 tornadoes reported in those 13 states, nearly 19% were big boppers. Twenty two were reported to be F4 and six were F5. That means that if a tornado came to your town that afternoon, there was about a one in five chance you were getting smacked by a tornado that represented the most powerful concentration of force on the face of the earth.

9 yr old's story pg 2

9 yr old's story pg 1

 In total energy, a hurricane far outpaces a tornado. But for a brief period in such a relatively small area, an F-5 tornado can have winds pushing toward 300 mph and creates total destruction. They don’t happen often but to have 22 on one day is quite rare. Of course, the twister that hit Breckenridge county and Louisville was one of those. Folks have told me about the one in Madison, IN. I guess given the destructive power of the storms, perhaps it is also rather unbelievable that only 330 died given that about 50,000 were directly affected. If you scroll back a few days to March 27, you will see that the 1890 tornado in Louisville took 120 lives and it wiped out much of the business district during the night when people weren’t there. No doubt the Louisville total in 1890 would have reached or even surpassed the 1974 national toll had it happened in the day time.

Click on Image for Penn State University Tornado Alley explainer

A big question that arises is how this all came about. I’ve provided a link to a Why the Outbreak Occurred. It is pretty helpful. Not all storms produce tornadoes as there are specific parameters or ingredients necessary to produce storms, including but not exclusively supercells, and that doesn’t happen all the time. When one considers the number of thunderstorms on the planet, supercells are relatively rare. But they can and do occur and tornadoes have been reported all over the world and have been reported in every state. But the topography of the United States, oriented with the Rocky Mountains to the west, the Great Plains with a clear shot to the polar region, the Mexican Desert to the Southwest and the Gulf of Mexico to the South, creates perhaps the most consistent breeding ground on earth for tornadic thunderstroms.  This is why it has become known as “Tornado Alley.”  If you click on the map to the left from Penn State University, you will be directed to a full Tornado Alley explainer, though I would have expanded their definition of the alley a bit farther north.   Study of the 1974 event has continued an in 2004, Risk Management Solutions produced this detailed analysis of the meteorological circumstance that created the event.

Louisville NWS Is Not Certain But Think This Mysterious Monster May be the 1974 Louisville Twister

Anyone who lives in Louisville today and was around in 1974 can tell you where they were when the tornado blew through town.  This link has historical radio broadcasts from Louisville. If you scroll down you will find WHAS radio coverage of the 1974 tornado. Within those reports you may find those broadcast (or at least a reference) by the radio station’s helicopter pilot who was the eyes and ears of the city. He is credited with saving lives. A transcript of the conversations as well as a brief bio of pilot Dick Gilbert can be found here. Remember, this was prior to all of the intricate warning systems of today and the fancy superduper skywarn doppler tracking 3000 radars on TV.

Photos from Brandenburg, KY

 

Louisville TV Station Footage from April 3, 1974

Monster From Main Street Madison IN

Here’s a cool link with more details and photographs broken down by state as well as eyewitness accounts:

 http://www.april31974.com/

Here’s an official version from NOAA and its 25th annivesary in 1999:

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/storms/

View of Cincinnati WSR-57 at 3:17pm 4.03.74-Note the Xenia Cell. This Radar Technology came on line in 1957

Technology has brought us many advancements, though often there is some downside to technological breakthroughs. Take the computer for instance…some say that kids are getting fat because they don’t go outside and play any more, preferring to stay indoors and play computer games. But thats a topic for someone elses blog. In this case, technology has greatly enhanced warnings to the point that a big ole outbreak like 1974 resulted in far fewer fatalities than would have happened in the past. You’re never going to eliminate them because of the sheer power involved in the storms. But, you can do the best you can. Thing is, in recent years, fatalities have increased so some work needs to be done. Perhaps it’s the Paris Hilton syndrome: Over Exposure.

Areas of Expected T'storm Activity Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  The forecast is pretty much holding to what I said yesterday.  Snow White and I had a very nice walk Friday evening and it seemed as if the moisture content had increased, yet the dewpoints were only in the upper 30′s.  Hmm…pretty dry.  I don’t think we can really moisten up the atmosphere sufficiently by Saturday afternoon to really make any storm activity all that significant.  But, the lapse rates remain very steep and elevated storms could be an issue.  The main energy with this activity will be well to the north of our area but we will be getting stuff in here by late afternoon.  Possible for t’storms? Yes?  Biggest threat would be small hail or gusty winds but the dynamics are best to our west, which is why the NWS has the 5% chance to our west.

SPC Severe Probability Saturday

As I mentioned yesterday, it looked to me that, Sunday would be nice but that the front would come back as a warm front on Monday.  Hence, a chance of rain. Then our temperatures soar back to the low to mid 80′s on Tuesday and Wednesday.  I would think that Wednesday afternoon or evening may be a better chance for some action around here.  Don’t look for a repeat of April 3,1974.  Odds are, it won’t even be that big of a deal.  But, it looks potentially more interesting to me than this weekend. 

Margaret Thatcher Shows Her Mettle April 2, 2010

May 14 1979 Time Magazine Proved To Be a Prophecy

Falkland Islands Map

On This Date in History: It is not unusual for a government in turmoil with a risk of collapse from within to create an international incident in order to unify the country against a common foe besides the government. In the late 1970′s and early 1980′s, Argentina had been ruled by a military dictarship that had once been popular but was rapidly losing support from the people as they grew weary of the number of political prisoners that had been taken as well as people who had simply disappeared. The economy was shrinking at 6% per year and inflation was running at 160%. The unions began to join forces with political opposition groups and the military Junta knew it was in trouble. Then, the thought a gift had been delivered to them.

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

Off of Argentina lay the Falkland and the South Georgia Islands. These islands had long been part of the British empire. Throughout the 20th century, the general global feeling was that empires needed to come to an end but, inspite of numerous attempts through the United Nations, Argentina was unable to get Britain to cede the islands that resided so far away from England. In 1979, an Argentian buisinessman (Constantino Davidoff) purchased a former whale slaughterhouse on the South Georgia Islands from an Englishman(Christian Salvensen). The new owner wanted to dismantle the plant and sell the mettle for scrap. The HMS Endurance was in the vicinity and the Argentine owner asked the Brits to loan him the use of their naval vessel to help him haul off the scrap. The crown denied his request. So, he went to his own Navy which obliged. This was the perfect set up for the Junta. It knew that the people of Argentina supported the idea of the nation gaining sovereignty over the islands off its coast and, if the Junta could use the situtation properly, it could perhaps regain public support.

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missles

So, in March 1982 when the Argentine Navy ship showed up at the South Georgia Islands, residents there complained to London that there was a warship with the Argentine flag floating in their waters. So, the British sent the HMS Endurance to the scene to prevent any landing by any Argentinians. Argentina responded by sending the military transport Bahia Parasio to the islands with the hope of occupying the islands peacefully. Now, the Junta had a plan for invading the Falkland and South Georgia Islands on the shelf for a couple of years. The nation had a pretty decent military and the battlefield would be 7500 miles from England. Also, they figured that they could use the weather as an ally by staging their invasion between June and October, which is the winter time in the Southern Hemisphere which would make things more difficult for England. The advantage really was with Argentina.

War Was The Big Headline in London

But…the people at home were getting restless and protests were growing quickly against the military leaders. So, they made the mistake of moving up their time table. On this date in 1982, Argentine ground forces of landed on the South Georgia Islands. The Falkland Islands War was on and the Argentine government appealed to President Reagan for support. The Rio Treaty of 1947 called on all nations of the Americas to come to the aid of any nation that was invaded by foreign forces. The Junta told Reagan that they were enforcing the rights of Argentine workers to legally do the job of removing the whaling slaughterhouse. I guess Ron didn’t agree because he didn’t lift a finger. After all, England was not your ordinary foreign invader. It had been our pal throughout the 20th Century and Reagan had established a strong bond with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who earned her reputation as the “Iron Lady” by calling the Argentine bluff.

Sinking HMS Conventry and other ships highlighted limitations and vulnerability of naval assets

Instead of quietly negotiating away the islands, she sent a task force of ships, submarines, sailors and over 10,000 troops all the way from England. The task force left on Aprl 5, 1982…just 3 days after the Argentine invasion. The first encounter of the Brits and Argentines happened on April 25 and by the middle of June, the war was over with an Argentinian surrender…just before the winter got going. Many historians agree, the biggest mistake of the Argentine Junta was to attack in the fall instead of sticking to their plan of a winter assault. In the eyes of many, the Argentinians had a good case for obtaining the islands but, the military might and determination of Margaret Thatcher rendered any legitimate points moot. A little more than a year later, the Argentinian Junta was out of office and any hope of ever getting to the negotiating table with Britain over ceding the islands was doomed. They never should have neglected the weather forecast.

SPC mentions T'Storm Potential Saturday

SPC Very small probability of strong storms Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  In the short term, it’s pretty clear cut with a very nice Good Friday with a high pushing toward the mid 80′s.  I told you  a  few days ago that there would be some potential activity in the midwest and the target area today stretches from north Texas to the central plains.  I think Saturday will be good for most of the time but rain chances will increase as the afternoon goes on.  By late afternoon into the evening, a front comes down but the main storm center will be well to our North.   The storms moving in from out west should be fading when they get here but, I would have an eyebrow raised if some wander in here in the late day, before the sun goes down.  The most interesting aspect of this is the steep lapse rates.  Some of these storms may be elevated and if the lapse rates shake out as suggested,then we could have some hail or gusty winds.  The SPC puts a 5% chance for severe weather just to our west and northwest which would indicate the probable area of storms by late afternoon.   Not a big deal, but its something.  Then the front clears things out for Easter Sunday and we knock about 10-15 degrees off the afternoon highs.  Monday, the front comes back as a warm front another front approaches. Rain chances will probably elevate.  After that, it seems to me that we get pretty warm on Tuesday before another front comes in and causes some issues on Wednesday.